Page 12 – The Pulse of Football

Oct

2024

The standout stat which highlights Premier League teams’ attacking intent

We are long-since passed the days of two up top in English football, the quintessential pairing of strikers which was the hallmark of the old First Division and even the Premier League’s formative years.

By Karl Matchett

We’ve circled a long way since then, and have basically arrived back there once more in a very different way: split attackers, one up and one off, pressing as a two before one drops into midfield. However you look at it, clubs mostly play with just one centre-forward these days…and one statistic in the Premier League this year shows how they are very much not the focal point of the attack.

Of course, centre-forwards come in all shapes these days. They are facilitators, chance-makers, ball-carriers, high-pressers; they must be the first line of defence as much as the players who are expected to score. And yet, in the main, they are not the players taking the most shots. Strikers they may be, but others are doing that job way more often.

In fact, in the Premier League through seven rounds of matches – approaching 20% of the season – there are just four out of the top 20 players who are recognised strikers, when ranked by shots per 90 minutes on the pitch.

*Erling Harland player traits, the anomaly*

And when considering one of those is Erling Haaland (5.0 per 90), who is of course off the charts in most respects to the extent that he should be considered an anomaly, it’s even more stark – then there’s the fact two of the others play for the same team, with Fulham’s Rodrigo Muniz (4.3) and Raúl Jiménez (4.0) dovetailing in the role this term, but both getting plenty of shots away regardless. The other striker is Aston Villa’s Jhon Durán (4.9), who has made such an impact this term, but from the bench: he’s had only 184 minutes of league action so far, compared to Haaland for example with well over 600. There’s a big difference in doing it consistently, game after game, rather than hammering in a few shots in a 20-minute cameo, which boosts the per-90 average considerably.

But that is it for what might be termed true No. 9s.

Leading the way of all players is Bournemouth’s Luis Sinisterra (6.1), but he’s another – as is João Félix (5.3) who have few minutes and a handful of shots and therefore a high average at this stage. Neither lead the line, though: the former attacks from wide, the Chelsea sub from deep, often a second attacker late in games under Enzo Maresca. Again, Haaland is out on his own when it comes to real starting players. Yet they provide the trend for what follows them: a host of starting wide forwards who are teams’ primary focus in creating and taking chances on goal.

Antoine Semenyo, Noni Madueke and Bukayo Saka are all in the top ten, all averaging over 4.0 shots a game and all playing from wide, cutting in, unleashing hell. Eberechi Eze and Cole Palmer are not far behind, England internationals playing a narrow supporting role at club level this term, plus outright winger threats such as Brennan Johnson and Harvey Barnes can be found in the top 20. Of course Mohamed Salah is there, lower shot numbers than in previous years but with the best conversion rate (18%) of genuine, undisputed first-choice players outside of Haaland (28%) and Palmer (25%). Kai Havertz is one final example of a player who is generally not a striker, but often playing No. 9 this season for his side… and yet, not always, and not as the highest player in the team during attacking buildup play.

And yet the numbers to underline the notion that teams are more and more focusing on getting their wide and secondary attackers into the most dangerous positions is only reinforced when we step away from the shots per 90, and look at chances created: Saka, Palmer, Salah and Eze are all in that top 20 too, as are fellow width-bringers Jarrod Bowen, Marcus Tavernier, Anthony Gordon and Dwight McNeil. At least two of those play centrally this season too, but as attacking midfielders, not forwards. In the top 20 by chance creation, only Bryan Mbuemo could reasonably be labelled a striker, and he certainly plays wide as much as not.

*Chances created, Premier League 2024/25*

While we’re not exactly asking the question of what are strikers doing then? it’s still fair to summarise that they no longer play the most critical role for managers’ plans when it comes to the final third of the pitch, and how to breach the opposition defence. Just like the role of defensive midfielder, of a team’s No. 10, of what a full-back is and what their role in build-up play has become, the centre-forward is every bit as changeable and subject to finding a new way to thrive – it’s just that now, it’s not necessarily to be the main finishers.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Analysis: Nigeria’s Super Eagles and their coaching conundrum

It has been quite an eventful international break for Nigeria’s Super Eagles. They were in international headlines for unwanted reasons as their flight to Libya was diverted away from the capital Benghazi at the last minute. Instead, they were forced to land in Al Abraq over 200 kilometres to the east, where they found themselves locked in the airport for about 12 hours.

By Neel Shelat

Naturally, the squad and coaching staff were very concerned and displeased at such treatment, which is why they decided against playing their match and headed straight back home. CAF are investigating matters so no decision has been announced yet, but even forfeiting the match would not be a problem for the Super Eagles as they are well on course to qualify for next year’s Africa Cup of Nations.

Indeed, Nigeria’s recent record on the continental front is not bad at all. They were the defeated finalists in this year’s AFCON, having also finished third in 2019. However, their last title was all the way back in 2013, which is quite disappointing considering the quality in their squad.

Their World Cup record, though, has been pretty poor for a while. The Super Eagles have won just two games at the tournament since the turn of the century – the same number that they managed in each of their previous appearances. They have at least qualified for four of the last six editions of the tournament, but that record is also under threat.

Nearly halfway into CAF’s World Cup qualification tournament, Nigeria are winless and second from bottom in their group behind the likes of Rwanda, Benin and Lesotho. Despite the World Cup’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams, the Super Eagles could well miss out on consecutive editions for the first team since making their debut.

Clearly, they will have to be at their sharpest when World Cup qualification resumes in 2025, so they must use the next couple of months to put everything in order.

Imbalanced squad

One of the main challenges coaches face in charge of Nigeria involves managing one of the most top-heavy squads in world football. Unlike club sides, national teams obviously cannot entirely rely on recruitment to balance out their squads, so they are at the mercy of the talent pool available to them to a pretty big extent. The responsibility to make everything click then falls on the coach, who often has to make some very tough decisions when it comes to squad and team selections.

In the Super Eagles’ case, some previous coaches have been guilty of leaning towards player quality far too much and sacrificing the balance of the side. Nigeria seem to have an unending production line of strikers and forwards, including world-beating talents such as Victor Osimhen and Victor Boniface, lots of youngsters popping up around major European leagues, and a great deal of supporting options such as Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi and Samuel Chukwueze to name but a few.

Naturally, it is quite tempting to cram as many of these players into the same starting line-up as possible with the hope that their quality can blow away any opposition defence, but football is not quite so simple. The trouble for Nigeria is that they do not have an elite-level holding midfielder who can do the approach work.

They do not have any particularly exceptional defenders either, so picking a balanced side is really the only way to get the best out of this squad, even if it means benching some of the star attackers. Failure to do so will almost certainly lead to incohesive performances in which the attackers do not get enough service and the midfield is torn apart on the counter, as many have learnt the hard way.

Coaching instability

Such complicated squad dynamics make finding the right formula a difficult process that needs some trial and error. As a result, new head coaches need to be given a bit of time to figure things out, but in the world of international football where stakes are always incredibly high, such time is hard to come by. Nevertheless, the Nigerian Football Federation (NFF) would do well to justify making three coaching changes this year alone.

José Peseiro led the side in the AFCON campaign, though his success largely stemmed from a switch to a back five and a very defensive-minded approach that saw the Super Eagles just about edge past slightly weaker opponents. This was never going to work against significantly lower-ranked sides against whom Nigeria would be expected to dominate proceedings, so he left when his contract expired in March.

Financial issues also reportedly played a part in his decision, which was hardly a surprise given the NFF’s terrible track record of financial mismanagement and unpaid wages. Peseiro’s assistant Finidi George then took charge, but he only lasted a couple of matches in the hotseat as he too fell into the imbalance trap.

Bruno Labbadia was the NFF’s next target and seemed up for the job, but there was yet more financial trouble in store. Disagreements over tax details led to the German coach calling the deal off, so Nigeria’s search continued. Crucially, they failed to bring someone in before this window – when they might have had opportunities to experiment – and instead had to go back to trusty interim option Augustine Eguavoen.

Next candidates

Hervé Renard is likely the dream candidate for the Super Eagles given his pedigree and pragmatism, but he recently rejected their offer despite being promised a lucrative salary. Swedish tactician Janne Andersson was also said to be in talks at the time but had some issues around delayed joining dates, though that should not be a problem anymore if he is approached once again.

Besides them, nobody has been notably linked to the job of late. The NFF’s financial issues might make it difficult to convince any well-known and well-established names, so finding an internal solution might be the best way forward for the moment.

Nigeria quite clearly have the quality in their squad to ease past almost all opponents in their World Cup qualification group so all the coach needs to do is field a remotely balanced side. Eguavoen has done a sensible enough job in that respect in his previous stints, so he could well be the best candidate. He has, however, recognised the issues of instability surrounding the position, asking for a long-term contract to take up the role permanently. Given their lack of options, the NFF may well find themselves going down that route in the end.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Nigeria game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Is Juventus’ defence really good enough to build a title challenge?

Juventus have made a solid start to the new campaign, unbeaten through their first seven matches in Serie A, and just three points off league leaders Napoli.

By Karl Matchett

While Juve haven’t lost, nor have they been a relentless winning machine – it’s three victories and four draws, with the big strength of the team so far being in a near-perfect defensive record: six clean sheets to start the season, then finally a first conceded last time out against Cagliari. Even that was a last-minute penalty, though, which begs the question: are Juve turning back the clock to build a title challenge on an impenetrable back line?

It is not all that long in historical terms since Juve were the dominant force in Italian football, though in terms of how quickly the sport tends to move on, it has gone on too long for the club’s liking: nine titles in a row from 2012 to 2020, but in the four years since, the best they have managed is a sole third-place finish – and even that, last year, saw them finish a whopping 23 points off the champions. They were not, it’s fair to say, in a title race.

And this season, the tests still largely lie ahead. Roma and Napoli are the only bigger clubs Juve have faced so far and both games ended goalless; while six clean sheets are of course an impressive statistic, failing to score in three of seven is somewhat less so. So is new boss Thiago Motta, who impressed last term with leading Bologna into the Champions League, really putting in place the foundations to challenge Napoli, Inter Milan and whichever other challengers emerge this term?

For starters, they are certainly overperforming relative to chances: just one conceded, but a combined xG against them so far of 3.4. But even if they regressed to the mean there, they’d still be far better than anyone else in the top flight: Napoli’s xG against of 6.3 has seen them concede five, while each of Lazio, Inter and Milan are between 7.6 and 8.1 total xG against, with between nine and 11 actually conceded. In other words, Juventus are being far meaner in giving up chances than everyone else, and doing a lot better at ultimately stopping those few chances going in, with most of the rest conceding more than they should.

With Gleison Bremer topping the blocks charts this season – 11 already, 1.8 per 90, top whichever way you look at it – and Federico Gatti finding consistent form as his regular partner, Juve built a fine base to start the season. Motta will now face a headache, though, with Bremer injured and possibly out for the remainder of the season.

But add in goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio establishing himself as the first choice and Juve still have every right to be optimistic. Early in the season though it of course is, Di Gregorio ranks higher than 93% of Serie A goalkeepers for high claims per 90, 90% of keepers for save percentage, 83% for his pass accuracy and, obviously, all of them for total clean sheets.

Yet as much as the old adage about attack wins games, defence wins titles might hold true for many, there’s also another side to that equation: too many draws and not enough wins will similarly damage your trophy aspirations. Consider: last term Inter won the league with 29 victories. Should they remain as good as last term, that means rivals can only allow themselves nine non-wins for the entire campaign – and as noted, Juve already have four draws with less than a quarter of the campaign done.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that 24/25 is a replica of 23/24, but the average points haul across the last four years since Juventus last won Serie A is 90.25 for the title-winners.

That means it’s likely to be at best 11 non-victories as the absolute maximum allowed, 27 wins and nine draws for example, with just two losses.

So they must attack – and must improve their attack, if the title is the aim. While Dušan Vlahović tops the Serie A charts for xG so far this term (5.6), three of his five goals have come from the penalty spot. For shots per 90 they have nobody inside the top 10 individually, and nobody in the squad who has netted more than once so far this term. Juve rank second for possession average, but a shocking 11th-highest in the table for xG: 9.2, with Atalanta the league’s highest on 15.1. Juve have actually scored ten, but that’s nowhere near enough outperformance to make up for a very low tally.

They are sixth for possession won in the final third, ninth for big chances created with barely half of Atalanta’s total, a woeful 12th for touches in the opposition box.

There’s much to like about the foundations already put in place by Motta, and certainly this team bears watching because of that, but so many improvements must yet come on the ball and in attack if they are truly a challenger this year.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from Serie A with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Why giving Lopetegui more time to breath is the best policy for West Ham

It was, in all honesty, a result that West Ham United and Julen Lopetegui needed, shortly before this international break. True enough, their opposition may have been one of the more modest that they’ll face in the Premier League this season, but others have found Ipswich Town difficult to break down, and after the early upset of seeing a first minute goal cancelled out, West Ham did end up cruising to a fairly comfortable 4-1 win.

By Ian King

It certainly felt like the international break came at a good time for Julen Lopetegui, with a win to warm some hearts following a difficult start to the season. Not that the international break has been good for all West Ham players. Lucas Paquetá was named in the starting eleven for Brazil’s World Cup qualifier against Chile on Wednesday night. By half-time his team was a goal behind and he’d picked up a yellow card, and he was substituted.

Paquetá has been under a cloud for much of this season so far, but the question now facing West Ham and Lopetegui is whether the Ipswich win was the sound of a corner being turned or a blip in an otherwise slightly underwhelming start to the season. Because prior to that match, the pressure was already starting to build after taking just two points from their previous four matches.

But how bad, exactly, has their season been? Their three league defeats so far have come against Aston Villa, Manchester City and Chelsea, who have only lost three games so far this season between them. They drew away to Fulham and Brentford. Not sparkling results, exactly, but perfectly acceptable. And their wins, 2-0 at Crystal Palace and 4-1 against Ipswich Town, have been fairly clear-cut, albeit with the caveat that these two teams are third and fourth from bottom in the League respectively and without a win between them.

And what a way to welcome themselves back, with a trip to the surgery to see Doctor Tottenham. West Ham’s 2-1 win at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last season was their first in six away from home against Spurs, with the last coming in April 2019, the first League meeting of the two teams at the new Spurs stadium. Prior to that they were unbeaten in the League at White Hart Lane against Spurs since 2012.

And in sharp contrast to West Ham United, Spurs’ own inconsistency hit new heights in their last match before the break when they managed to show the two sides to their coin within the same 90 minutes by racing into a 2-0 lead at Brighton before tamely surrendering it to their opponents in the first twenty minutes of the second half and losing 3-2. This, of course, came off the back of arguably their best performance of the season, albeit against an extremely limited Manchester United.

For all the clucking about Lopetegui following West Ham’s run without a win, by the time the rest of the Premier League kicks off at 3pm on Saturday afternoon, they could be in the top half of the table and above their London rivals with a win. Their goal difference ensures that they may not be by the end of the day even if they do, but even a very brief stay above the halfway marker would send out a message that things might not have been as terrible at West Ham so far this season as had previously been believed.

This, of course, is largely a consequence of the hastening of the news cycle. There is less patience ever offered to managers or head coaches nowadays, to the point that any who fail to win in three or four games will legitimately be considered to be at risk of getting the sack. Lopetegui is a good coach. He’s highly experienced and knows what he’s doing, and while there were valid questions to be asked concerning the wisdom of deciding that David Moyes had reached the end of the road at the end of last season, there were none concerning his replacement, who’s previously of, among others, Real Madrid, Spain, Porto, Sevilla and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

So the 24-hour news cycle requires constant sustenance, and kick-starting a mischievously pressure-raising story based on extremely threadbare (and usually anonymous) ‘speculation’ is not difficult for national newspapers in need of an extra click or two. Online fans, social media and certain elements of the press have become symbiotic in recent years, feeding off each others’ energy. It really doesn’t take long for rumour to become fact any more.

So the very nature of modern football culture dictates that knees jerk almost immediately should results even start to turn sour. The sacking of managers used to always be a long, drawn-out process akin to some sort of psychodrama, and while that does still exist today (consider, for example, the tortured journey that Erik Ten Hag and Manchester United have been on together this last couple of years), it’s increasingly rare.

Fuses are shorter, nowadays. The short-term fix is very much in vogue. And that means that, no matter how ridiculous it may all look at times, the simple fact is that a newly-appointed manager is in trouble should they go three or four games without a win because it has already broadly been decided by the culture of the game that any semblance of defeat cannot be tolerated.

And West Ham are among the more patient of clubs within this climate of hiring ‘em and firing ‘em. Lopetegui is only the third manager they’ve had since Sam Allardyce, and he was a full decade ago now, although it should be added that David Moyes had two spells with the club during that time. It was never likely that the West Ham owners were going to freak out and pull the trigger after four or five slightly disappointing results at the start of the season, and the Ipswich result offered an indication as to why this can be the best policy.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW 8

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

As we approach each gameweek, I always like to compare the eye test to the stats from the previous gameweek (GW7). While statistics like expected goals (xG) and assists provide concrete data, watching games offers deeper insights into players’ overall form and influence. As we know, some players shine in the stats, but underperform on the pitch, while others catch the eye but don’t yet have the numbers to back that up. Balancing this approach can help guide you to better FPL decisions and that was a crucial part of my strategy last season.

Liam Delap (5.6m) has scored 4 goals this season, with three of them coming in the last two gameweeks. He looked sharp against West Ham and was rewarded with a goal and nearly scored a second. The Tractor Boys are up against Everton (H), Brentford (A) and Leicester (H) in their next three games, who all are teams with a tendency to leak goal, conceding a respective 1.69, 1.87 and 2.14 xG per 90. If you still have João Pedro (5.5m) in your side, who will be out injured for a while, or if you planning on playing your wildcard, I would seriously consider getting Liam Delap in as your budget forward.

Although it sounds boring, I just can’t get around talking about Erling Haaland (15.4m) who is the Premier League top scorer with 10 goals. Although Haaland didn’t get his usual amount of chances against Fulham in GW7, he is still, in my opinion, by far the best captain for GW8 when City travel to Wolverhampton Wanderers on Sunday. Wolves looked really poor against Brentford and conceded 4.25 xG. They also really struggled to defend crosses, something that makes the case for the giant Norwegian even better.

Long shot

Having just mentioned Wolves’ tough fixture this weekend, I’m still backing Rayan Aït-Nouri (4.4m) as a possible long shot. Looking beyond GW8, Wolves’ upcoming games appear a little easier, and Aït-Nouri scored and got an assist, alongside creating 4 chances last time out against Brentford. He is also playing in some sort of an advanced left wing role, definitely one to consider if you are using your wildcard as you can play him in almost every game between gameweeks 9 and 17. Wolves aren’t great defensively, but he is one to target for the returns he offers you offensively.

Upcoming games to follow

In GW8 there aren’t that many games that I am really looking forward to from an FPL perspective, but there still are a few; Spurs play West Ham in the early kick-off as the league returns after the international break. I have mentioned Dominic Solanke (7.6m) the last two gameweeks, but I will do it again! Throughout this week we will probably get more information about Heung Min-Son’s injury situation, but if the Korean remains out of contention then I’m backing Solanke even more, especially if he 100% guaranteed to be Spurs’ designated penalty taker.

Another game that will be interesting is again, Manchester City’s trip to Wolves. Phil Foden (9.2) got his first Premier League start of the season in the last game week and if he starts again, it will be intriguing to see how last year’s player of the season performs. Without a doubt, he is someone to watch out for.

The last game I am following closely this week is Bournemouth vs. Arsenal. Once again I am focusing on Arsenal players before their fixtures turn in GW9. I expect both their defence and their more offensive players to perform well against the Cherries, a side who have failed to score in three of their last four Premier League games.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

Did you know that you can track live Fantasy points with FotMob? Simply select any Premier League game, swipe to the Lineup tab, and press the big ‘Fantasy’ button! Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Serie A is enjoying the fruits of another influx of British players

The juxtaposition of Scott McTominay and Billy Gilmour sitting atop Serie A with Napoli has caused a considerable amount of whiplash back in the UK, but these two aren’t the only British players currently playing their trade in Italy.

By Ian King

Indeed if anything, we’re going through something of a golden age for players from the British Isles going to play in that particular country, something not seen since the 1980s and 1990s.

At present there are fourteen players from the UK in the first team squads of Serie A clubs, and perhaps even more surprising than this is that five of them – more than a third – are from Scotland. As well as Gilmour and McTominay, there’s also Lewis Ferguson, who’s the captain of Bologna, Liam Henderson of Empoli, and Che Adams at Torino.

With no representatives from Wales or Northern Ireland the other nine players are all English, and they’re a curious bunch, ranging from new signings to squad players and a couple of first team regulars. A total of nine clubs out of the twenty in the division have a player from England, Scotland or both.

The club in the deepest with English players is Milan, who currently have Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Fikayo Tomori, as well as Tammy Abraham on loan from Roma. It has to be said that Milan haven’t had a very strong start to the season. They’re currently 6th in Serie A and have lost both of their first two matches in the Champions League group stage.

With eight games of the league season having been played, Tomori and Loftus-Cheek have both been ever-present in the league while Abraham has only missed one game. None of the three were selected by Lee Carsley for the England squad for the current round of Nations League matches against Greece and Finland.

*Milan starting XI vs. Leverkusen, Champions League 2024/25*

Milan are the only one of the traditional big three of Italian football to have any British players whatsoever; neither Inter or Juventus have any. Clubs of this size want their players from the elite end of the spectrum, but neither really quite have pockets quite deep enough to justify throwing a nine figure sum at a young English starlet.

One place above Milan are Udinese, who feature Keinan Davis, who ran up almost 150 appearances for Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest and Watford before leaving for Udine in the summer of 2023. He only made eight appearances last season but has already featured in six of their seven Serie A games so far.

Napoli lead the current table, their spine infused with steel produced by the Men of the Clyde, but what of the other Scots? Che Adams has had a reasonably successful start to life with Torino, with three goals in his seven Serie A appearances. His team are in 7th place in the table, level on points with Milan. Lewis Ferguson is now in his third season with Bologna, where he is the captain.

Liam Henderson, meanwhile, is the most travelled of them all. He hasn’t played in Scotland since falling out of favour at Celtic and only making one appearance throughout the whole of the 2017/18 season. Since then he’s carved himself out a decent journeyman career in Italy, with spells at Bari, Hellas Verona, Lecce and Palmero, as well as three spells with Empoli, where he’s currently playing. Empoli are 10th in the table, a point behind Milan and Torino.

Henderson has been joined at Empoli this season by Tino Anjorin, who signed for the club during the summer after finally giving up the ghost of being given much of a chance by Chelsea. He only made one Premier League appearance for them, and was sent out on loan to Lokomotiv Moscow, Huddersfield Town and Portsmouth before Italy beckoned. He’s made four league appearances for them so far, which is four times as many chances as he ever got at Stamford Bridge.

Two places above Empoli – though the teams are tied on points and only separated on goal difference by one goal – are Atalanta. Ben Godfrey left Everton for Bergamo in the summer for £10m after four years at Goodison Park, but has only made one appearance for last year’s Europa League winners so far, though he did also play the last seven minutes of their opening Champions League match against Shakhtar Donetsk at the start of October and came off the bench against Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup as well.

But of course, football isn’t all about chasing for European places, league titles and glory, and three of the English players currently playing in Italy are very much at the coalface at the moment, fighting a battle against relegation. Bottom of the table Venezia don’t have any British players, but the three clubs above them have one each.

Separated from the foot of the table by goal difference alone, Monza have Omari Forson, who rejected a new contract with Manchester United after having made four League appearances for them last season, while Brooke Norton-Cuffy, a former Arsenal academy product who was loaned out to Lincoln City, Rotherham, Coventry City and Millwall, is playing for Genoa.

And finally, Samuel Iling-Junior was signed by Aston Villa from Juventus – for whom he played 34 times last season – during the summer and immediately loaned back to Serie A, to play for Bologna. He scored a stoppage-time equaliser for them on his debut away to Como, but has only played twice for them since.

The reputation of English players abroad is growing. In Germany, Harry Kane is still averaging a goal a game for Bayern Munich, while Conor Gallagher and Jude Bellingham have impressed in Madrid, albeit for different clubs. But it’s Italy that has really invested significantly into English and Scottish players, taking a chance on players who have been happy to take a gamble on travelling in a way that was less common just a generation ago. And why shouldn’t they? It’s better than sitting on the bench in the Championship or slowly drifting from view. By comparison, winter in Italy sounds like quite the career-reviver.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from Serie A on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Brazil to Kazakhstan: 6 Title races to watch in 2024

As men’s club football begins to resume after the latest international break, the summer leagues will enter the home stretch of the season. Some intriguing and exciting title races are set to play out all around the world, so we have picked out six to keep an eye on.

By Neel Shelat

🇧🇷 Série A: Botafogo Seeking Redemption

The Brasileirão almost always delivers incredible drama right till the end of the season at all ends of the table, and this year is no exception.

At the bottom, giants such as Corinthians and Fluminense are involved in what promises to be an almighty relegation scrap. At the other end, Botafogo find themselves top of the pile again, with less than ten games to go.

Fogo were in a significantly better position at this time last term as they were eight points clear at the top, but their title challenge was unravelling. Head coach Luís Castro’s departure for Al Nassr midway through the season proved to be the turning point, as the club went through three different managers and won just two of their last 17 matches. Ultimately, they not only lost the title to Palmeiras but also fell out of the top four and missed out on direct qualification for the Copa Libertadores.

The record champions are once again leading the chasing pack, but Botafogo are in much better form with an ongoing 11-match unbeaten streak. They are also in the Libertadores quarterfinals having defeated Palmeiras in the quarters, so they will have to carefully balance their commitments on both fronts if they are to lift their first major trophy in over 50 years.

🇨🇱 Primera División: Colo-Colo’s Comeback

Record Chilean champions Colo-Colo endured a rocky start to the season after hiring former Boca Juniors head coach Jorge Almirón. A quarter of the way into the season, they had accumulated just 10 points from eight matches – half the tally of league-leaders Universidad de Chile. Since the halfway point of the season, though, they have been on an incredible run which has earned them 31 out of 33 possible points.

Thanks to that streak, the title is now in Colo-Colo’s hands. All they have to do is win their four remaining matches, which include a couple of fairly tough tests against Palestino and Deportes Iquique.

🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga: HJK’s Dominance Set To End

Record Finnish champions HJK have won each of the last four Veikkausliiga titles and six of the last seven, but they will not be defending their title this year having lost their last three matches and failed to win any in the Championship group. However, they will still play a key role in determining where the title ends up.

Leaders KuPS will host them on the final matchday, needing a win to be sure of completing their first-ever league-cup double. Should they falter, Ilves – they of the brilliant Lynx cat badge – will have the chance to win their first league title in four decades.

🇮🇪 Premier Division: Five-Way Fight To The Finish

The League of Ireland Premier Division has been rather dominated by Shamrock Rovers in recent years, so 2024 has been a welcome change. The record champions could well win a fifth-consecutive title, but the battle is sure to go right down to the wire as just six points separate the top six with three rounds of fixtures left.

Shelbourne, the side led by Damien Duff, who were in the second tier just three years ago, are on a shocking run of form but somehow still lead the way. They have won just one of their last 13 matches in all competitions, so they will need to get their act together if they are to hold on. Derry City had the chance to overhaul them by playing their two games in hand over recent days, but they could only draw both of those. Derry will still get their chance, though, with the two set to meet on the final day in what could prove to be a showdown for the title.

Should the top three falter, Galway United might just be able to win their first top-flight league title with a burst to the finish. Their last three fixtures are all winnable, so a 59-point tally could give them an outside chance. They will first have to overcome fourth placed St. Patrick’s Athletic, who have an equal chance of winning their first league title in a decade.

🇯🇵 J1 League: Debutants Machida Zelvia Set To Fall Short

Over in Japan, newly-promoted side Machida Zelvia have enjoyed an incredible top-flight debut season. They mounted a shock title charge for about three-quarters of the season and spent a great deal of time at the top of the standings but look set to ultimately fall short.

With five matches left, they are now six points behind the leaders. The two main contenders now are defending champions Vissel Kobe and Sanfrecce Hirsohima, who are separated by just a point.

They will both have to balance their title charges with continental commitments, so we could be in for more twists and turns yet.

🇰🇿 Premier League: Half The League In The Title Race!

Perhaps the most exciting and unpredictable title race of the year is unfolding in Kazakhstan, where over half the league remains in mathematical contention!

Before the end of the season, these sides will face off as many as nine times, so the path to the top remains wide open for everyone. Defending champions Ordabasy are currently on course to win their second-ever league title, but they will have to fend off direct challenges from three rivals in their remaining four fixtures.

Aktobe, the second-most successful club in Premier League history are currently second as they seek their first league title in over a decade. FC Yelimay, who spent nearly a decade in the second division before winning promotion last year, are surprisingly level on points with them.

They could both be leapfrogged by Kairat Almaty, but the team to watch have to be FC Astana. The record champions are currently fifth but could jump up to second by winning their games in hand, though they have four fixtures against title contenders. Tobol Kostanay and Atyrau are the outsiders at the moment, but if there is one thing this season has taught us, it’s that anything is possible.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Captain Raphinha flourishing in new role at Barcelona

New life has been breathed in to Raphinha’s Barcelona career under manager Hansi Flick.

By Luke Bissett

Ahead of the 2024 summer transfer window, Raphinha seemed extremely likely to depart Barcelona. President Joan Laporta had expressed his desire to sign two of Spain’s stars from Euro 2024, Dani Olmo and Nico Williams, while Raphinha represented value as a saleable asset on the club’s balance sheet.

The Brazilian however remained in Catalonia and has quickly become one of the side’s standout performers under new manager Flick. Barca have enjoyed a scintillating start to the season, collecting 24 points from their opening nine games in LaLiga – their best start to a campaign since 2017-18 (25 points), and Raphinha has undoubtedly been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the German manager’s arrival.

The 27-year-old has begun the season in superb fashion, recording six goals and five assists across all competitions. Indeed, it’s the second most goal contributions of any LaLiga player this term, behind only teammate Robert Lewandowski (14). It took Raphinha until February of last season (24 appearances) to match his goal involvement tally of this campaign (11 in 11 games).

The attacker has cut a completely new figure under Flick, forming one of the most potent attacking tridents in European football alongside Lewandowski and Lamine Yamal. Barca have scored 34 goals in all competitions across 2024-25, the most of any side in the big five European leagues. Into his third season in Catalonia, Raphinha finally appears to be making good on his reported £55million transfer fee. He has impressively instated himself as an integral element of the attack – playing more minutes than any other Barca player across all comps this term (751).

Nominally used as a left winger in Flick’s 4-2-3-1, the 27-year-old has also been deployed as a No. 10 due to Olmo’s recent absence through injury. Yet regardless of his starting position, Raphinha has been afforded somewhat of a ‘free role’ in the set-up, giving him the ability to drift into central areas. This has allowed the Brazilian to ghost into more threatening parts of the pitch, thus enabling him to provide a real impact in the final third.

*Raphinha shooting stats, LaLiga 2024/25*

The attacker’s new-found freedom has been a breath of fresh air, showcasing just how much of a difference-maker he can be. He has seen his influence grow tenfold, boasting more open-play shot-ending sequence involvements than any other player in the big five European leagues (63).

There has never been any question over Raphinha’s productivity, yet he’s now consistently demonstrating it an alarming rate.

The 27-year-old poses an immense goal-threat, which has been certainly aided by his shackle free role. 11.9% of Raphinha’s touches have been in the opposition box this term (62/520), his highest percentage in a LaLiga campaign. The forward exhibits a real decisiveness in his end product, aided by his ability to generate opportunities out of nothing. In fact, he ranks third for both shots (30) and shots on target (14) across the Spanish top-flight.

Rewarded for his frightening form with the LaLiga Player of the Month award for August, Raphinha has been a central figure in the Barca attack. An attack that is recording a staggering goal return. Flick’s side have netted 28 league strikes – the most of any side after nine LaLiga games since Barcelona themselves in 2016-17 (29 goals).

One of the outstanding benefits to the Brazilian’s central role is that it has allowed him to operate as the key playmaker in the side. He has created 39 chances across all competitions – more than any other player in the big five European leagues. Raphinha has always possessed pure quality when delivering a final pass, however his decision-making has now vastly improved – offering a much more potent profile in the forward-line.

*Raphinha passing stats, LaLiga 2024/25*

The attacker is a constant livewire, always seeking to drag Barca up-field via his positivity on the ball – highlighted by his assist for Lewandowski’s second goal in their 3-0 win over Alavés last time out. Raphinha’s actions are always purposeful, as he displays a real impetus when leading the side’s fast-paced attacks. His 19 carries into the opposition box is the fifth-most of any player in LaLiga this season, while he is always seeking to attack space left behind.

By having the freedom to drift into central areas, Raphinha is always looking to combine with his teammates through neat interchanges. Though he does not shy away from progressing the ball via his elite ball-carrying. LaLiga defences retreating at a rapid pace as the Brazilian drives with the ball before unleashing from range or sliding runners in-behind has become an all too regular occurrence. And Barca have ensured to embrace this efficiency. Only Kylian Mbappé (77) has received more progressive passes than Raphinha in LaLiga this season (66).

One of Raphinha’s most impressive assets is his selfless work rate off the ball, something which is perfectly aligned to Flick’s counter-pressing philosophy. In fact, Barca have the lowest PPDA in LaLiga this season (8.7), displaying just how effective their press can be. And the attacker is the lead protagonist with his relentless running and energetic defending from the front.

This leadership has certainly been recognised by Barca fans and his teammates alike. The Brazilian was voted in as one of the four club captains by his fellow players in the summer, while the recent injury to regular captain Marc-André ter Stegen has led to Raphinha captaining the side in recent weeks.

From dispensable to essential, Raphinha is displaying his pure brilliance on a regular basis under Flick, and it is form which only seems to be amplifying.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Hugo Ekitike and Omar Marmoush, the centre-forward pairing firing for Frankfurt

If there’s one thing Eintracht Frankfurt know how to do, it’s sell centre forwards for a mouth-watering transfer fee.

By Zach Lowy

After narrowly missing out on the 2018/19 UEFA Europa League Final, Eintracht sold attacking duo Luka Jović and Sébastien Haller to Real Madrid and West Ham for a combined €113 million, fetching a net profit of €99 million. They rebuilt their attack with Bas Dost (€7m) and André Silva (€3m) – Dost left after 16 months after struggling to make an impact, whilst Silva joined RB Leipzig for €23 million in July 2021.

Eintracht replaced Silva without spending a dime, with Rafael Santos Borré joining on a free transfer and playing a key role in their 2021/22 UEFA Europa League victory. Borré dropped to the bench following the arrival of Randal Kolo Muani, who took Frankfurt by storm with 40 goal contributions in 46 matches. One year after joining on a free transfer from Nantes, Kolo Muani returned to France and joined Paris Saint-Germain for €95m. To replace him, Eintracht repeated their formula by adding another young striker on a free transfer, with Omar Marmoush joining on a four-year contract from Wolfsburg.

“When Jesper Lindström left for Napoli, it looked as if Marmoush would be his replacement, but suddenly Kolo Muani was also gone,” said Christopher Michel, the leading Eintracht Frankfurt journalist for German outlet Fussball News. “Coach Dino Toppmöller recognized Marmoush’s qualities and spoke to him a lot and worked on his finishing. Toppmöller explained something important to him: he should have a plan for his finishes. Now, he is very intelligent and precise and uses his inside foot. As a result, Marmoush quickly became a top scorer and a crowd favorite – he took a big step forward in Frankfurt.”

With Lucas Alario and Borré heading to Internacional in the winter window, Eintracht elected to sign Hugo Ekitiké on loan, who had not played a single match in six months after being frozen out of PSG’s first-team squad. Whilst he was understandably rusty with one goal contribution in his first 11 appearances, Ekitiké scored his first Bundesliga goal on April 19 in a 3-1 win against Augsburg, prompting Eintracht to trigger their purchase option for a club-record €16.5m, less than half of what PSG had paid for him (€35m) just a few months ago. It didn’t take long for him to justify their investment, scoring 3 goals and 1 assist in his next 4 appearances and kicking off the 2024/25 campaign with a brace and an assist in a 4-1 cup win vs. Eintracht Braunschweig.

For the first time in three years, Eintracht Frankfurt are no longer playing with one centre forward, but two, and it’s clear to see that Toppmöller’s tactical gamble is paying off. Eintracht have scored 14 goals in their first six league matches, whilst only Stuttgart (27) have produced more big chances than Eintracht (23). Marmoush has stolen the show with 8 goals and 12 goal contributions – sitting three clear of all Bundesliga players in both categories. He leads the league in Expected goals on target (5.8), Shots on target per 90 (3.0) and big chances created (6), and is the highest-rated Bundesliga player on FotMob (8.58). Ekitiké, however, isn’t far behind at 7.78 (12th overall), and he transcends his Egyptian counterpart in various metrics like accurate passes per 90 (18.3 vs. 12.9). Not only is the Frenchman more involved in the construction of possession, but he’s also more active out of possession, averaging 1.0 clearances per 90 and 1.0 interceptions per 90 and winning 0.75 possessions per 90 in contrast to Marmoush (0.18 for all).

“Marmoush tends to arrive from deep with a lot of power and pace, whilst Ekitiké is the technically finer, fleet-footed and more complete striker,” said Michel. “The good thing is both are versatile, quick and are top finishers. When Ekitiké and Marmoush are in front of goal, a goal is almost guaranteed. Ekitiké is the technically stronger player, he has great technique, can get through in tight spaces, is strong on his feet, and is also good with his head. Marmoush, on the other hand, has a bit more power and speed. He needs a bit more space to play, but when he gets that space, he’s almost unstoppable. That’s why they complement each other so well.”

Apart from a 2-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund on August 24, Eintracht have scored two or more goals in each of their eight matches this season, whilst they’ve also found the back of the net on three or more occasions in each of their last four. They fell behind within 15 minutes of their most recent match-up vs. Bayern Munich but quickly equalized via Marmoush, who latched onto Ansgar Knauff’s pass and took a touch to isolate himself from Raphael Guerreiro before firing a low shot past Manuel Neuer. It wasn’t long before he was terrorizing Bayern’s defense again, coming out on top in a physical duel with Dayot Upamecano, racing from the halfway line to the edge of the box before teeing up Ekitiké, who blazed a robust shot between Neuer and the near post. Upamecano equalized immediately whilst Michael Olise restored Bayern’s advantage after the break, but Eintracht would have the last laugh in the 94th minute as Éric Junior Dina Ebimbe headed the ball into the path of Marmoush, who steadied himself before caressing the ball into the bottom left corner with the poise and precision of a veteran marksman.

“In his current form, Omar Marmoush has nothing to envy about any striker in Europe,” said Michel. “His performance against Bayern Munich was world-class, and his duel against Upamecano is one that not many strikers win. He said this summer that he wants to be one of the three best players in the world. I don’t know if he can do that, but it commands my respect when a player follows up such an announcement with such a performance.”

Eintracht haven’t finished inside the Bundesliga’s top four in 32 years, but they find themselves on track to end that drought, sitting third in the Bundesliga, one point behind Bayern and RB Leipzig, one above Freiburg, and two above Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin. With the exception of Willian Pacho, who joined PSG for €40m, they’ve kept hold of their entire core and replenished their backline with the signings of Arthur Theate and Rasmus Kristensen. After a transitional first season under Toppmöller, Eintracht are finally starting to click on all cylinders and find consistency with a high-tempo, counter-attacking style predicated upon their striker partnership. They’ll be counting on both Marmoush and Ekitiké next Sunday as they look to end a run of 10 straight defeats at the BayArena and beat Bayer Leverkusen in their own backyard for the first time since December 2013.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Bundesliga game on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Angel Gomes is carving a niche for himself in the England set up

Angel Gomes starred for England in their win over Finland and it has become clear over the last month that he will have a role to play in the future of the Three Lions.

By Kaustubh Pandey

In many ways, Angel Gomes wasn’t meant to be where he is right now and that is what made his appearances against Ireland and Finland rather pleasing. He put on a show against Finland yesterday, weeks after doing the same against the same opponent.

About four years ago, this would have seemed unimaginable for the then 20-year-old Gomes, who was leaving Manchester United after the expiry of his contract and then linking up with Lille on a free transfer.

This came after years of promise for United, where he showed glimpses of his talent in the first-team and also made a mark in the youth sides, famously making his club debut while coming on for the legendary Wayne Rooney. In the process, as a 16-year-old midfielder, Gomes became United’s youngest player ever since Duncan Edwards, something that essentially put a huge amount of expectation on his shoulders.

Towards the end of his stint at Old Trafford, a perception had developed that his stature was too diminutive to play in an attacking midfield role and despite United’s issues in that position before the arrival of Bruno Fernandes, Gomes never really played in the number ten spot. Often, it was felt that there was a lack of trust from United’s side, which led to his exit and the eventual move to Lille.

After impressing in a loan stint at Boavista, the midfielder became a squad player for Les Douges. Progress was slow, as he adapted to a new league, playing less than 1000 minutes in his first season in Ligue 1 and that is when he was used closer to goal by manager Jocelyn Gourvennec.

In the 2022/23 season, Paulo Fonseca arrived after his stint at Roma. The club lost Amadou Onana, Sven Botman and Renato Sanches but it didn’t discourage the new Portuguese boss at all.

That is when Gomes’ position changed, as Fonseca began to use the London-born player in a deeper role to make the most of his ability to play against a press, operate between the lines, and break them with his range of passing.

*Season summary since leaving Man United*

He got six assists in the 2022/23 season, taking the tally to ten in the 2023/24 season. While it was a drop in goal contributions from how he scored six and assisted three at Boavista, it was perhaps a better use of his strengths as a player and it negated his weakness.

His numbers from last season showed that he is so much more involved in build-up than an advanced midfielder would be. He is constantly carrying the ball forward, linking up play, taking about 70 touches per 90 minutes and playing 54 accurate passes per 90 minutes as well.

That is quite a transition for someone who started as a number ten and while coming through at United, the expectation was that Gomes would develop into the player who plays that final killer pass. He still does supply that, creating 2.35 chances per 90 minutes this season, and generating an Expected Assists per 90 minutes tally of 0.24 but there is clearly more involvement in the dictating of play as well.

His ability in deeper midfield is also helped by the fact that Gomes wins a majority of his duels too.

This season, he has won 60 percent of his duels and has won 57 percent of his aerial duels too, showing that he isn’t just someone who does on-the-ball work. He does benefit from a smaller frame, allowing him to be quite fleet footed in his approach when he is on the ball.

England’s recognition of his talent was probably a bit late as despite having a press-resistant and versatile midfielder in their pool, they largely ignored him until Lee Carsley’s temporary arrival at the helm.

But now, England are blessed with options like Gomes, Adam Wharton and Kobbie Mainoo, with Declan Rice being the more established player in the heart of the park. It would be unlikely to see Mainoo and Gomes play together at the same time due to the similarity in their profile and height, and that is why the Lille star’s first start came alongside Rice, against Finland at Wembley in September.

In that game, Gomes played 86 forward zone passes – more than anyone else on the pitch. In total, he played 123 passes and that was the most in the game and an incredibly high figure.

It was against a side that stayed deep, allowing Gomes the room to play those passes but even against a side that presses high, the midfielder has the skill set to play between the lines, beat a man and break presses. That is similar to what Mainoo does but Gomes also provides a bit more versatility due to his background of being an attacking midfielder.

Yesterday, again against Finland, Gomes started alongside Rice, grabbing a beautiful assist for Jack Grealish’s opening goal and he played a total of 100 passes, behind only two other England players.

*England passes vs. Finland, Nations League, October 2024*

He was also more involved in the final third than he was in the first game against Finland, showcasing his versatility in the heart of the park.

While more challenges are yet to come, England now have someone who can dictate play really well against a side that sits deep. Gomes can carve them open, shift their block from side to side, and find gaps to make an impact.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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