The Pulse of Football

Oct

2024

Preview: Madrid take on Dortmund in a re-run of last season’s Champions League Final

The nature of the new group stage in this year’s Champions League means that this likely won’t stay the same for long, but Real Madrid will take to the pitch for their third match of the series against Borussia Dortmund in an unfamiliarly low position in the table.

By Ian King

Few were anticipating defeat in their second group match in Lille, but having comfortably beaten Stuttgart in their first match they came unstuck in the north-west tip of France, losing to a penalty converted by Jonathan David in first half stoppage-time.

It was their first defeat of the season in any competition and it left them in 17th place in the Champions league table, but there hasn’t been a slump since, with two wins in LaLiga – against Villareal and Celta Vigo – keeping them on the coat-tails of Barcelona’s explosive start to the season.

Kylian Mbappé returned from injury at the end of last month and is expected to start. Dani Carvajal, David Alaba and Brahim Díaz will all be absent. Mid-table is not where they’ll have expected to be after two games, though the six remaining games offer plenty of opportunity to set that straight.

Of course, Real beat Dortmund 2-0 in last year’s final and there is a case for saying that their opponents haven’t quite recovered from that yet. They’re currently 7th in the Bundesliga having already been beaten 5-1 by Stuttgart and 2-1 by Union Berlin.

They arrive in Madrid off the back of a nervy 2-1 against St-Pauli with injury worries. Karim Adeyemi scored a hat-trick in their last Champions League match against Celtic, but he suffered a severe hamstring injury at the start of the second half and won’t be back until the end of next month.

Other injuries Julien Duranville, Giovanni Reyna and Yan Couto, while Pascal Gross and Niklas Süle are both doubtful. Gross was replaced at half-time in the St-Pauli game, and it is not clear whether he will be fit to play. Süle missed the game ill and will be travelling, though it’s also doubtful he’ll be in a condition to play.

With such players missing and form patchy, there’s little to indicate that Dortmund will pose more of a threat to Real than they did on the 1st June, but a lot of people wrote off Lille’s chances against them too. This is their chance to get back on track and maintain their lofty top spot in the Champions League.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Arsenal look to put the weekend behind them when they take on Shakhtar

With four points from two tricky opening games in the Champions League, Arsenal have had a decent start to their campaign, but they will arrive at The Emirates for their third match against Shakhtar Donetsk in a tetchy frame of mind.

By Ian King

Because regardless of the debate over the sending off of William Saliba during the match, there was little question that losing 2-0 at Bournemouth on Saturday was both their worst result and worst performance of the season so far. It was, considering that they’d just come back from an international break, a surprisingly tired looking performance from the title-chasers.

Saliba will start against Shakhtar (his one game suspension comes against Liverpool at the weekend), but Arsenal’s list of absentees remains long. Martin Ødegaard is unlikely to return until the end of the month and Bukayo Saka and Jurrien Timber will both face fitness tests before the match.

Shakhtar Donetsk have had a slightly troubled start to the season, both in this competition and domestically. In the Champions League they started off with a reasonable goalless draw away to Bologna, but their second game ended in a 3-0 ‘home’ defeat to Atalanta (they’re playing their home matches in Lviv, 1200 kilometres from home, at the moment due to Russia’s invasion). For what it’s worth, they are currently in 27th place out of 36 in UEFA’s new, byzantine Swiss Model group stage.

Their league season got off to a surprisingly weak start, losing two of their first three matches, but they’ve recovered since then, with a five match unbeaten run having lifted them back up to fourth place in the Ukrainian Premier League behind Dynamo Kyiv, Oleksandriya and Polissya Zhytomyr, and six points off the top of the table. Despite the obstacles being thrown in their way, Shakhtar are expected to be pretty much at full strength.

These two sides have met four times before, stretched across two Champions League groups a decade apart. In 2000/01 Arsenal won 3-2 at Highbury but lost the return match 3-0. A decade later, and by this time at The Emirates, they won 5-1 but then lost the return match 2-1. The Gunners will start this match as strong favourites to win, especially since the nature of their defeat on the south coast of England and the weekend surely demands one. Mikel Arteta surely knows that he needs a big performance in this match.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

The top performances in MLS on Decision Day, Matchday 38

Our Major League Soccer expert James Nalton picks the standout players from the latest round of games in MLS, including his two votes for the North American Soccer Reporters (NASR) MLS Player of the Matchday.

By James Nalton

The Top Two

9.7 FotMob rating: Luis Suárez, Inter Miami

Lionel Messi will likely take the plaudits for the impact he had off the bench and his brilliant hat-trick, but Suárez was just as good, if not better, for Inter Miami in their 6-2 dismantling of New England Revolution.

The win saw Inter Miami break Major League Soccer’s regular season points record, edging the previous record of 73 set by Saturday’s opponents New England in 2021.

This version of New England looks a far cry from that one as they finished 14th in the Eastern Conference in 2024, but at the same time, Inter Miami are a far cry from the one who themselves finished 14th in 2023.

Suárez, as much as Messi, has epitomised their turnaround and scored twice in the first half to get Miami back in the game having gone two goals down.

He set the platform for Messi’s magic hat-trick and assisted two of those three goals himself.

Suárez finished the season with the same number of goals as Messi on 20, and just one assist fewer than his teammate for the season, with nine. Six of those assists were for Messi goals.

If Messi wins the 2024 MLS MVP award as expected, it will be Suárez’s biggest assist of the season.

9.6 FotMob rating: Lionel Messi, Inter Miami

And now to Messi himself. He came off the bench in the 58th minute against New England and immediately made an impact, sending Jordi Alba through to assist the go-ahead goal for Benjamin Cremaschi.

That was just the starter though. The main course came in the form of a hat-trick – his first in MLS. It feels like he does this kind of thing every time he plays.

Despite starting just 15 games in the 34-game MLS regular season, he still has a case to be named its best player.

This hat-trick, scored in the space of 11 minutes, was a good example of why.

It put him on 1.21 goals per 90 in MLS this season, a single-season league record for players who have played more than 300 minutes.

Three more standout performers

8.9 FotMob rating: Daniel Steres, Houston Dynamo

It was a goal that changed the outlook at the top of the Western Conference, not just for the Dynamo themselves as they moved into a more favourable playoff spot, but especially for their opponents, LA Galaxy.

The Galaxy had led the Western Conference standings since July and needed a win or a draw to claim top spot and with it home advantage for the majority of the playoffs.

They went behind when Steres, himself a former Galaxy player, glanced a free-kick from Héctor Herrera to assist a goal for Ezequiel Ponce just before halftime.

A Gabriel Pec penalty in the 6th minute of added time in the second half looked to have done enough for the Galaxy to achieve their aims, but the drama was not over.

In the 11th minute of added time, Steres got in front of his marker to score a great header from Griffin Dorsey’s cross to defeat the Galaxy.

It meant LAFC’s 3-1 win against San Jose Earthquakes was enough to see them overtake the Galaxy to claim top spot in the West by a single goal on goal difference.

8.9 FotMob rating: Elliot Panicco, Nashville SC

Goalkeepers being among the top performers has been a feature of the season, and this week was the turn of Panicco, of Nashville.

He was making just his sixth start of the season in place of usual No. 1 Joe Willis, and he certainly made an impact.

He helped his side keep a clean sheet in a 3-0 win, facing an xG on target figure of 1.78.

There were good saves from Chris Mueller, Georgios Koutsias, Brian Gutierrez, and Hugo Cuypers, with six saves in total.

There was no chance of playoff qualification on Decision Day for Nashville, but they will nevertheless be pleased to end the season on a high, and Panicco will be pushing to make more appearances next season.

8.1 FotMob rating: Eduard Atuesta, Los Angeles FC

While Steres’ late goal for Houston against LA Galaxy was one part of the equation that could see LAFC finish top of the Western Conference, they still needed to win their own game by a two-goal margin.

Having gone behind to a goal from San Jose’s Jackson Yueill, this was not as simple a task as it might have been.

Denis Bouanga levelled the scores, but it was substitute Atuesta whose contributions made the difference, scoring a great goal of his own before assisting the vital third, sending in a free kick for Marlon to head home in the 90th minute.

It all made for a dramatic final day at the top of the Western Conference table, and a turnaround that saw LAFC finish as the top seed on that side of the league.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Barcelona face Sevilla at the start of a huge week for the club

Does García Pimienta know something that his Sevilla predecessors did not to finally beat Barça?

By Filip Mishov

LaLiga leaders Barcelona have a big week ahead of them as they are set to host Sevilla on Sunday, and Bayern Munich, on Wednesday, at Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys before making the trip to Spain’s capital to face arch-rivals Real Madrid all in the space of six day.

With that being said, Hansi Flick will be pressured to rotate in order to keep the squad fresh, but at the same time, the German tactician will hope to avoid the mistake of making too many changes as Osasuna taught the Champions League’s winning coach a harsh lesson, when Bryan Zaragoza & co. inflicted them their first defeat in the Spanish top-tier back in September.

Also, Flick’s faith in youth will be put to a test as the Catalonia-based club is the only one among Europe’s top five leagues to feature three 17-year-olds (Pau Cubarsi, Marc Bernal and Lamine Yamal) who have played more than 200 minutes. With the defensive midfielder – Bernal ruled out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury and Yamal sustaining a hamstring strain while on international duty with La Roja, that is almost certain to change as Barça have not put a timescale on the wonderkid’s possible return yet.

However, it is not all doom and gloom as Fermín López is back in training and Gavi is finally nearing a return from long-term injury with the Spanish prodigy taking part in first team training during the international break. Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Ronald Araújo, Andreas Christensen, Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres remain on the sidelines and with Yamal out, the in-form vice-captain, Raphinha is expected to occupy the right wing spot, but Flick has to decide between giving Pau Víctor another opportunity at left wing or giving Ansu Fati his first start of the season.

*Possible Barca starting XI, made with the new line-up builder at FotMob.com*

As for Rojiblancos, Barcelona represent one of, if not the most difficult opponents to face because Sevilla’s last league win against Barça at Camp Nou dates back to 2002 and the Andalusia-based club has recorded only three league home wins against them over that same period. But the Sevillistas are hoping for a change of scenario as now, García Pimienta is at the helm, a former Barcelona player, and coach of La Masia’s youth teams and finally, Barcelona B. The Catalan has not enjoyed the best start of the season at his new club but Sevilla did defeat city rivals Betis before the international break and to extend their current unbeaten run to three games, something that sees them sat 12th in the standings. Additionally, unlike Flick, Pimienta enjoys a clean bill of health within his squad with only Saúl Ñíguez unavailable, which should give him plenty of options to choose from and provide support for Belgian forward Dodi Lukebakio, who has been their best player this season.

Finally, the Blaugrana boast a perfect home record in LaLiga with three wins under their belt, while Sevilla are still winless on the road this season with three draws and one loss, and given their struggles when facing Barça, it would take a monumental performance to break their Catalan curse, but hope dies last and who knows what Pimienta has up his sleeve from his time spent in Barcelona.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Liverpool and Chelsea put their strong starts to the season on the line at Anfield

Many are tipping Manchester City and Arsenal to battle it out for the Premier League title this season but on current form, Liverpool and Chelsea are the two best teams in the English top flight.

By Sam McGuire

The Reds host the Blues this weekend in a pivotal game for both managers and projects.

As Arne Slot keeps pointing out, his side have had favourable fixtures so far this season. Their record of six wins from seven attests to that.

An away win at Old Trafford sounds impressive on paper but Manchester United have, yet again, been awful this season. The game against Chelsea is the first time his Liverpool team are coming up against a recognised top team in good form.

After a number of lacklustre showings before the international break, he’ll want a reaction from his players. He’ll want a good showing and a positive result.

Enzo Maresca finds himself in a similar situation. Chelsea are unbeaten since their opening-day defeat to Manchester City. They’ve had some big wins this season over Wolves, Brighton and West Ham United. However, they’ve also dropped points in games against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest.

The former Leicester City manager has his side playing good football. He has them playing as a team. He’s also figured out a way to get the best out of Cole Palmer. He’s yet to record a statement victory over an established top team.

Winning at Anfield could force people to take notice of this Chelsea team. A win on Sunday would also end the terrible recent record the Blues have against the Reds – they’re winless in nine matches across all competitions. Their last victory arrived in 2021 during that terrible run of form for Liverpool under Jürgen Klopp. Liverpool fans may remember that in that particular game, Fabinho partnered Ozan Kabak at centre-back.

This should be a good game for the neutral.

Both sides are attack-minded with Chelsea ranking second for Expected Goals this season and Liverpool currently sat in third for this metric. The Reds top the charts for Big Chances Created while the Blues are second. In the alternative, Expected Points table, we have Slot’s men sat top with Maresca’s side in second.

This really is the two most in-form teams in the league so far this season facing off. These are two teams with stacked attacks and impressive defensive units. These are two teams under new management, looking to show their good start is the real deal, not just a honeymoon period. This is a game you do not want to miss.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Premier League game with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: The league’s leakiest defence take on the meanest attack as Wolves host Man City

Although the international break is now behind us, Wolves manager Gary O’Neil may be wishing for another week off, with his Molineux men currently sitting bottom of the Premier League table, and with the visit of Manchester City coming up on Sunday.

By Dan Tracey

Gary O’Neil will almost certainly be looking at ways to shore up Wolves’ defence, with 21 goals conceded across their first seven league games of the season, at an average of three goals per game is not one that is sustainable in either the short or long-term.

In the long-term, it is the kind of metric that points to a relegation battle, at best, and demotion to the EFL Championship at worst. In the short-term, failure to land a first league win of the season in the next couple of weeks may lead to a change in the dugout.

That is not to suggest that the visit of Manchester City represents a free hit for O’Neil and his players and if they are to suffer another heavy defeat at home, a change may even have to be made before next weekend’s clash with Brighton.

In fairness to the team that is currently propping up 19 others in the Premier League, their attacking output has been far better from what you would expect from a team in their position, and with nine goals to their name, they rank joint 12^th on that measure alone.

However, it is not goals scored that matter the most, it is league points and with both they and Manchester City needing them for far differing reasons, this clash has all the hallmarks of an ideal warm-up for matters at Anfield – where Liverpool take on Chelsea just a couple of hours later.

It must be noted that City have shown their own defensive deficiencies at times this season, but whereas Wolves can’t seem to convert the necessary chances to get them out of trouble, the defending champions never seem to panic even when finding themselves going behind.

A scenario that played out against Fulham a fortnight ago, and one that they would rather avoid when referee Chris Kavanagh gets Sunday’s game underway. Should the defending league champions pick up the win in the West Midlands, they could even find themselves going back to the top of the table.

That would put the pressure back on to Liverpool as it will be down to Arne Slot’s side to then find a way to pick up maximum points against Chelsea. But first, City need to make sure they clear the hurdle placed in front of them before placing one in front of one of their title rivals.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Fulham’s high-risk high-reward policy is working well this season

Fulham have enjoyed an impressive start to the 2024/2025 season and might count themselves unlucky not to have gained more points.

By Matt Smith

With just two losses in the Premier League, both away from home, Marco Silva’s men are currently sitting in eighth position and the data certainly shows that they could be higher in the table.

Last time out, the Cottagers were defeated 3-2 by Manchester City, but they gave Pep Guardiola’s side plenty to think about. This performance showed the level they are currently at, going toe-to-toe with one of the best sides in world football. Fulham created 2.6 expected goals, which amounts for around 33% of City’s total xG conceded this season in the top flight.

Although creating chances has been a key part of their early success this term, Silva has his side extremely organised defensively. Losing João Palhinha was a significant blow during the summer transfer window with the Portuguese midfielder protecting the back four, but they’ve only conceded eight times this campaign, with only four sides managing less.

The addition of Emile Smith Rowe in an attacking midfield role has been beneficial, meaning Andreas Pereira has dropped into a slightly deeper position alongside Saša Lukić, predominantly. It’s a fairly unfamiliar role for the Brazilian, who is naturally more of an attacking midfielder, but Silva has managed to get the balance right in the middle of the park.

Pereira’s performances this campaign have gone slightly under the radar. Only Bukayo Saka has created more chances than Pereira, who might feel slightly unfortunate to not have registered a single assist considering the opportunities he’s producing for his team-mates.

*Pereira passing stats per 90, Premier League 2024/25*

Lukić is the natural enforcer and plays the role of a pivot in build-up, receiving off the back four. Pereira will play slightly further forward, linking up with the likes of Smith Rowe in advanced midfield positions. It’s a high-risk high-reward strategy from Silva, but it seems to be working so far.

The balance of Alex Iwobi on the left, a player who likes to drift inside and come into central areas, alongside Adama Traoré, more of a touchline winger who likes to be direct and get in behind, has worked wonders with the style of full-backs behind then. Antonee Robinson plays more of a wing-back role, getting forward and providing crosses, exploiting the space left by Iwobi.

The American left-back has created 0.9 chances per 90 minutes while completing nine successful crosses. Robinson has provided two assists for his side and loves to bomb on down the left and get involved in play in the final third.

*Robinson stats, Premier League 2024/25*

On the right, Kenny Tete is more of a stay-at-home right-back. Not as effective in the opposition half of the pitch, Tete provides a little more defensive solidity. Although it could mean Traoré is slightly isolated on the right, Smith Rowe and Pereira can often drift into these areas to provide overloads.

Raúl Jiménez has taken the role of starting centre-forward this campaign, and Silva is starting to utilise the Mexican forward properly after a disappointing run of form in recent years. The former Wolves man thrives off crosses into the penalty area, and Fulham’s setup allows them to utilise Jiménez perfectly. The Cottages have completed more accurate crosses per 90 minutes than any other side in the Premier League this season.

The addition of Joachim Andersen has also been a bit of a coup for Fulham. Losing Tosin Adarabioyo in the summer transfer window after he departed at the end of his contract, the Cottagers forked out to bring in Andersen from Crystal Palace. The Danish centre-back’s passing range and defensive ability has made Silva’s side more solid at the back and fluid in their build-up. In fact, Andersen has the most accurate long balls and clearances per 90 in the entire division this season.

Fulham are currently unbeaten at home, with their only away losses coming against both Manchester clubs. Drawing away at Ipswich and at home to West Ham might be seen as two disappointing results so far, but they’re still picking up points and becoming incredibly difficult to beat. Silva’s men now have a run of fairly favourable fixtures, playing the likes of Wolves, Crystal Palace, Brentford and Everton, who are all in the bottom half of the table, before the end of November.

Heading towards Christmas and 2025, we could see Fulham mounting a serious charge for European football. Of course, it’s a small sample size and still very early days, but the data and performances suggest that the Cottagers are heading in the right direction under Silva. Champions League qualification might be a bit of a stretch, but there’s no reason Fulham can’t be competing for the top eight come May.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Madrid travel to Celta Vigo, one of LaLiga’s great entertainers this season

After two weeks off thanks to the international break, LaLiga champions Real Madrid are back in action. Their tenth league match of the season will see them visit Balaídos to take on the eye-catching Celta Vigo.

By Neel Shelat

Celta promise goals galore

Celta Vigo are unquestionably among the most exciting teams in LaLiga this season. Led by Claudio Giráldez in his first full season in charge of a professional club, they are third in the division in terms of total goals (scored and conceded) per game.

They have a dynamic attack led by Borja Iglesias and Iago Aspas, although the latter is suspended for this game after being sent off in the win over Las Palmas. Celta Vigo kept their only clean sheet of the season in that match, despite playing with nine men for over half an hour!

The most intriguing part of this Celta side has to be Óscar Mingueza, the former Barcelona defender. He was a sturdy centre-back or at most a defensive full-back for Xavi’s side, but Giráldez has refashioned him into a flying right wing-back. He has been doing his best Trent Alexander-Arnold impression in Vigo, already breaking his personal seasonal record for goal involvements with six in just eight games. Real Madrid will have to keep a close eye on him.

Will a refreshed Real Madrid attack click?

The two-week break and a favourable fixture against a frail Celta Vigo defence might just be what the doctor ordered for Real Madrid’s misfiring attack. Although they have the second-most goals and the second-highest xG tally in the league, they haven’t been able to create chances at anywhere near the same consistency as their main title rivals, Barcelona.

Thanks to the world-class quality of their players, their clinical finishing has helped them get over the line in most cases, but Carlo Ancelotti will surely be a lot happier if he can get his star forwards to click. Both Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior did not travel with their national teams in this break so they should be well-rested and refreshed, though they were also nursing slight injury issues. Should either of them fail to feature, the likes of Rodrygo, Endrick, Arda Güler and Brahim Díaz will be keen to make the most of the opportunity they get.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from top flight game from Spain live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Arsenal head to Dorset looking to extend their winning streak against the Cherries

With seven games of the Premier League season now played Arsenal have still dropped just four points, and at a glance it looks as though a Saturday afternoon trip to the south coast should be one of their easier away trips of the season.

By Ian King

Arsenal scored nine goals in their last three games before the international break, which hints at the scale of the job ahead for Bournemouth.

The historical record certainly seems to back that assessment. In the nine years since the Cherries found their way into the top flight they’ve only taken five points off Arsenal in fourteen attempts; a 2-1 win in January 2018 and 3-3 and 1-1 draws in January 2017 and December 2019. Arsenal have won each of their other eleven League meetings, including the last seven in a row.

Arsenal have one or two minor injury worries ahead of this match. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli are both at risk of absence following knocks picked up during the international break for England and Brazil respectively. Both will be assessed before the match on Friday tea-time. Martin Ødegaard is also still likely to be absent, though it seems fair to say that Mikel Arteta has coped pretty well without his usual captain.

For Bournemouth, the most significant question is whether Tyler Adams, who’s been out since the summer following back surgery, is fit to return to the team. This is the game that had been targeted for his return, but it’s unconfirmed that he will, and if he does return in this match, it may turn out to be from the substitutes bench. Bournemouth’s recent form has been inconsistent of late, with 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches.

If there is a potential weakness to be exploited, it could be Arsenal’s defence. They only conceded 29 in 38 games last season but they’ve conceded five in their last three games since last keeping a clean sheet in the League against Spurs four weeks ago, three of which came against somewhat modest opposition, in the form of the newly-promoted Leicester City and Southampton.

It’s not much, but it is at least a glimmer of hope for Bournemouth, and considering both Arsenal’s recent form and Bournemouth’s record against them in recent years, it’s difficult to see past the Gunners continuing to keep pressurising both Liverpool and Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Man United aim to change the narrative at home to Brentford

It’s over a month since Manchester United last won a Premier League game, over two months since they last won one at Old Trafford and, quite incredibly, more than ten months since they won back-to-back home league matches in the same season.

By Karl Matchett

Quite how Erik ten Hag has lasted long enough to keep sight of that particularly niche anniversary remains a mystery, but for United to even have a chance at ending the run soon, they need to first put an end to successive 3-0 home league defeats.

Solace for the beleaguered boss comes in the fact that their next opponents, Brentford, remain without a single away league win themselves this term. While their home form puts United’s to shame – four wins from five in all competitions in 2024/25 – Thomas Frank has been unable to translate that to being on the road, with the Bees’ last top-flight victory outside of their own ground coming in May.

And yet despite that, there won’t be too many away fans who think a result is impossible in the north west on Saturday. Brentford are 11th, United 14th. Brentford have two points more and a goal difference which is superior by three. And if they have plenty of players missing through injury in attack, limiting the options for Frank to shuffle the pack, that might still be preferable to United’s absent bodies being scattered throughout the porous defence and soft centre which has been so brittle again this year.

As an example, Bryan Mbeumo – top ten in the league for goals, big chances created and expected assists, while United have nobody at all on any of those lists – remains available, and is in prime form. United have no player, attacker or otherwise, who has more than a single goal or a single assist in the Premier League this term. While individuality isn’t everything, it certainly helps to have a reliable source of chances.

*Bryan Mbeumo shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

And as a team? Well, Brentford have a better xG than United, have created more big chances and win the ball in the attacking third more times per game. United do, it should be noted, have the edge in xG conceded; however, given that the only half-dozen teams below them in that category are the relegation battlers, newly promoted teams and Brentford themselves, it’s dubious if Ten Hag would realistically highlight that as a positive. Then again, given league results over the past 300-odd days at Old Trafford, it’s hard to know any more exactly where they draw the line on something being negative either.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Premier League game with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.