It’s a must-win game for Manchester City at the top of the Premier League tonight, as they travel to play a Bournemouth team with more than one reason to want to topple them.
By Ian King
It’s do or die for Manchester City tonight, and Bournemouth have more than one reason to want to try and trip them up
It’s crunch time, then, at the top of the Premier League table. Manchester City have now won both of the domestic cups this season, but the league title remains out of their reach, and although Arsenal only edged a 1-0 win against Burnley last night, at this point of the season that’s all you have to do. Fail to beat Bournemouth, and Arsenal are the champions for the first time in 22 years. Coming on top of reports that Pep Guardiola is to leave the club at the end of this season, it’s been a difficult 24 hours for the blue half of Manchester.

And Bournemouth will be more than up for this. Not only do they still have a chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League (though the permutations are too complex to go into here), but this evening also marks Andoni Iraola’s final home game as their manager before departing for (as yet unknown) pastures new. They come into this match off the back of a 16-game unbeaten run, the longest that any club has managed in the Premier League this season.
Bournemouth’s record in this fixture is abysmal, though they did manage to edge it last season
The good news for Guardiola is that Bournemouth’s record in this fixture is historically, famously abysmal. These two clubs have met each other previously 25 times before – strangely, the first of these meetings was as late as 1987 – and of these, City have won 22, drawn two and lost one.
The slightly better news for Andoni Iraola is that the one win that Bournemouth have ever managed in this fixture came last season, with the Cherries winning this very fixture 2-1 in November 2024. City beat them twice last season after this at the Etihad, in the league and the FA Cup, but their last meeting at the Vitality Stadium resulted in a Bournemouth win.
Antoine Semenyo has made light work of moving to an elite level club
Cup Final-winning goalscorer Antoine Semenyo has made light work of moving to an elite level club. He’s bounced back to form following a bit of a dip in February and March, and has scored in each of his last two appearances for them. The goalscoring outlet that he has given City beyond Erling Haaland has been one of the key factors in keeping them in the title race for as long as they’ve managed and this is, of course, his first return to the Vitality Stadium since his January move north.

Bournemouth also have an in-form attacking player. Junior Kroupi has scored four times in his last six appearances for Bournemouth and has attracted reasonably strong match ratings in recent weeks, although his performance in their last match at Fulham was a little more tepid than we’d seen in previous weeks. His recent run means that he’s now overhauled Semenyo as their top scorer for the season, and he could break Semenyo’s heart tonight.
Manchester City came through the FA Cup final pretty much unscathed
All the Manchester City injury chatter before the FA Cup final concerned Rodri, but he came through his return unscathed before being withdrawn midway through the second half. The only other small concern they had was over Omar Marmoush, who was withdrawn at half-time against Chelsea, but this was confirmed as a tactical switch and he should be available again tonight.
Things aren’t quite as straightforward for Bournemouth. Ryan Christie was sent off in their last match at Fulham and both are suspended for this one. With a three-match ban for his red card, Christie won’t play for them again this season. Tyler Adams and Lewis Cook could return for this one (though Cook has to be considered doubtful, given that he hasn’t played since February), but Bournemouth will be missing Julio Soler with a thigh injury, while Alex Jimenez remains suspended by the club.
Bournemouth have as much to play for as City tonight, but City have the big match pressure experience
There was a time when you’d look at a fixture like this and consider a Manchester City win pretty much inevitable, but there are plenty of good reasons that this might not be the case tonight. Bournemouth have a lot to play for, with European qualification on the line, and that’s before we even look at a desire for the home fans to give a positive goodbye to their manager and put one over on the starboy who left them in pursuit of the elite level of the game in January.
It’s also reasonable to say that City haven’t been the team they were again, this season. That feeling of the crushing inevitability of them winning match after match – which manifested itself most obviously in their record in this exact fixture – has been missing again this season, most obviously in the way in which they re-seized the initiative in the title race by beating Arsenal in the middle of April before scrambling to a 1-0 win at Burnley and then conceding a near-fatal three goals in 13 minutes at Everton in the game after that.

Bournemouth have been unbeaten for not far short of half the entire Premier League season. That’s a record which cannot be overlooked. If Pep Guardiola is the generational coach that he’s universally claimed to be, then he should be able to get his expensively-assembled collection of star players up for this match, at this of all times. But there are too many good reasons why this could go wrong for them, so I’m going for a 1-1 draw, and for the title race to be over with a game to spare.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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