After wins over Sunderland and Brighton – the latter in the FA Cup – optimism might be rising that Liverpool can reignite their dismal season and push into Champions League spots. But have Arne Slot’s team left it too late?
By Karl Matchett
The least-celebrated unbeaten run in Liverpool’s recent history came to an end late in January when they were beaten by Bournemouth. It was 13 without defeat prior to that as Slot tried to halt the astonishing decline of September to November, but even so there were precious few victories. Even now, Liverpool have only won twice in the Premier League in 2026, which leaves them sixth in the table, trailing Manchester United and Chelsea in the fight for a top-five finish.
Which means the rest of this campaign, league-wise, has to be about ensuring they are in Europe’s top competition next term, while also challenging on two cup fronts.
The two-part league job at hand
There are two ways to look at it. One is that Liverpool are only one place and two points off fifth – which should be good enough for a Champions League spot in 2026/27. Across 12 remaining fixtures, that’s nothing; that position could swap hands multiple times. But the important contextual other part to consider is that Liverpool’s form is heading in the wrong direction, relative to the clubs above them.
So, the first part of the trick for Slot is to more consistently manage his team’s own performance, then the second part is to earn more points across the last dozen matches than either Michael Carrick or Liam Rosenior. It can be argued that both the English-born duo have been getting that fabled “new manager bounce” after five matches in charge apiece: four wins and a draw have Manchester United the most in-form club in the league over a six-game period, while they are joint-top of the form table over five. Alongside them in the latter are Chelsea with the same 13 points. Across the same run of games, Liverpool are ninth over five games, tenth over six.
In fact, roll it back further: exclude a five-game win streak that the Reds started the season with and Liverpool also sit tenth from a 21-match period. Their points-per-game rate has been wretched for quite some time.
What’s needed in a sprint finish?
So if looking backwards offers little reason to suggest the Reds will suddenly turn into the consistent, win-by-any-means machine they were in previous seasons, what about looking ahead?
Over the last decade, the average points claimed to finish fifth in the Premier League is 67.7 – given the fairly intense competition for it this season, it’s fair to round up to 68, which is equivalent to 1.79 points per game across the season.
Right now after 26 games apiece, Manchester United are running a 1.73ppg campaign; Chelsea are on 1.69ppg and Liverpool 1.62ppg – though the past 21 matches have been an utterly desperate 1.29ppg. While Brentford and others have been, and remain close to Reds in the table and thus can be considered in the top-five fight by some, for the purposes here of looking whether Liverpool can climb up, only those three sides’ tallies are worth considering as Slot’s team have to overhaul one of them.
So, a significant improvement is required for certain in terms of consistency and racking up points quicker – three wins in a row is Liverpool’s best since October, which will likely need beating if they are to jump up a spot. To put it another way, to hit 68 points from now, Liverpool need 26 more from 12 remaining matches – 2.17ppg, or some variation around eight wins, two draws and two defeats.
If Liverpool are to be considered in or approaching their “best” form of the campaign now – more impressive despite losing to Man City, determined in victory at Sunderland, and resounding at home to Brighton – then it’s contextually important to note their last eight victories currently span 14 fixtures, and that’s across all competitions so including Qarabağ and Barnsley.
Liverpool need a fall-off from a rival
It’s reasonable to think, therefore, Liverpool cannot likely reach 68 points. That doesn’t mean they can’t get a top-five finish in isolation, because 68 points being the total required is the unknown part of the equation.
There is home-instead-of-away context to consider (and vice versa) but against their remaining opponents, Liverpool have taken 19 points this term. They still have to go to Everton and Man United, and host Chelsea – naturally big swing games in this particular race. Chelsea took 18 against their remaining opponents, United 21. That duo also have to face off in April. If it’s a case of “same again” (which it obviously won’t be, football is too uncertain) then United would reach 66 points. However, they’re much better recently in points-earning terms than earlier in the season.
An unquantifiable counter-argument is that neither newly appointed boss has done a big Premier League run-in like this before where every point matters; Slot won a title last year but end-of-season results were also undeniably poor, with the heavy lifting done far earlier.
Liverpool might be top of the possession stats this season, but Slot is trying to take a team sixth for clean sheets, seventh for big chances created, and eighth for shots on target per game…and engineer a top-five finish. The league table might show a small gap to that position, but the direction of numbers – and performances behind them – say something very different. If they want Champions League football next year, they may well have to win it this time.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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