Are Arsenal about to pick up the first leg of a 2025-26 quadruple? Manchester City might have something to say about that in this weekend’s Carabao Cup final.
By Ian King
Arsenal look serene, while Manchester City are having an uncharacteristic wobble
It might have been a chastening week in the Champions League for English clubs, but it wasn’t for Arsenal. A comfortable 2-0 win against Bayer Leverkusen saw them through to the quarter-finals of the competition to round off a satisfying few days for the Gunners, on top of the previous weekend’s results allowing them to extend their lead at the top of the Premier League still further, to nine points (albeit City have a game in hand).

Manchester City, meanwhile, have continued to wobble. A 2-1 home defeat to Real Madrid in their Champions League midweek match completed a comprehensive 5-1 aggregate win for Los Madridistas, and they’ve only won one game in five since the start of March, a figure all the more surprising because by this point of the season they’re usually into a relentless rhythm of winning which has, in the past, seen them pick up shedloads of silverware.
Arsenal are unbeaten in six vs City, but their League Cup final record is terrible
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six games against Manchester City in all competitions, going back to the start of the 2023/24 season. The two clubs still have to play each other at the The Etihad, and their meeting earlier this season ended in a 1-1 draw.
Yet Arsenal’s recent record in the Carabao Cup isn’t good. They’ve won it twice, in 1987 and 1993, but they’ve lost the final six times, to Leeds United in 1968, Swindon Town in 1969, Luton Town in 1988, Chelsea in 2007, Birmingham City in 2011, and Manchester City themselves in 2018.
Manchester City’s record is far better. They’ve won it eight times in total; in 1970, 1976, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, and they’ve only lost the final once, to Wolverhampton Wanderers way back in 1974.
Declan Rice could tip the balance in favour of the Gunners
When looking at the players most likely to win matches for Arsenal this season, it’s difficult to look much further than Declan Rice, who could be on his way to lifting his first piece of silverware since West Ham’s Europa Conference League win in 2023. Rice’s consistently excellent performances for Arsenal this season may just have been the most fundamental difference between them and the rest of the Premier League.

Erling Haaland hasn’t looked like quite as much of a cheat mode in the Premier League season as he has in previous years. He’s still the top goalscorer on 22 in all competitions, but that’s only three ahead of Igor Thiago, and he’s been doing his business for Brentford. His goal against Real Madrid in midweek was his first in five games, and only his fifth in 2026, in all competitions.
Arsenal face late tests for three, but City should be more or less at full strength
Arsenal are definitely missing Mikel Merino, who’s out for the season, while there are question marks surrounding Eberechi Eze, Martin Ødegaard and Jurrien Timber. Eze limped off against Bayer Leverkusen and will likely be subject to a late test, while the same will be the case for the other two, with Timber having picked up an ankle injury against Everton which kept him out of the Leverkusen match and Ødegaard having not played since their North London Derby win against Spurs last month.
Manchester City are relatively light on the injuries front. Joško Gvardiol will be out for the rest of the season, while Marc Guéhi is cup-tied, having played for Crystal Palace in the competition earlier in the season.
Arsenal’s form and quality leave no reason to predict anything but for them to win
If Arsenal are to win this quadruple, this is the day that they have to start. The good news for them on this front is that they couldn’t really be going into it in a much better state of mind, having pulled clear at the top of the Premier League and with their place in the Champions League assured. It’s fair to say that their record in this competition isn’t particularly good, but it’s equally fair to say that this Arsenal team isn’t the same as they’ve had before.
Having dropped four points from what should have been eminently winnable games against Nottingham Forest and West Ham United, and with their elimination from the Champions League having been achieved with some degree of comfort by Real Madrid, the same cannot be said for Manchester City at the moment. Something just hasn’t clicked at The Etihad this season, in the same way that has become so familiar in recent years.
But their record in this competition is good – although it’s been five years since they last reached a final – and one-off matches can see form books go out the window. City’s experience in these finals might prove an effective counterbalance to Arsenal’s squad being stronger on paper.
On this occasion, though, the head says Arsenal. They’re the better team at the moment, and they’re in considerably better form than their opponents. 2-1 to the Arsenal has got a bit of a ring to it.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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