West Ham’s controversial defeat to Arsenal has given Spurs an opportunity to all-but secure their Premier League status for another year if they can beat Leeds United at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Leeds are in decent form themselves.

By Ian King

An opportunity for Spurs to take a giant step toward Premier League survival

Whisper it quietly for fear of breaking it, because it’s very delicate, but Spurs might be coming into some form. Their last three performances have each been an incremental improvement on that which preceded them. 

Against Brighton, one individual mistake cost them a much-needed home win. Against Wolves they were poor and lost a key player to a long-term injury, but they did at least get the win. Against Aston Villa, their opponents were a little flattered by a stoppage-time consolation goal to pull the score back to 2-1. 

On Sunday afternoon, meanwhile, a late Leonardo Trossard goal gave Arsenal a 1-0 win at West Ham under, shall we say, ‘controversial’ circumstances, which left the Irons in the bottom three and still a point behind Spurs. With only two games left after this, the four-point gap that would come with a win would leave Spurs with one foot jammed firmly in the emergency exit. 

Leeds United, meanwhile, are safe as a result of West Ham’s defeat. Ten points from their last twelve have left them in 14th place in the Premier League table, though it is also worth mentioning that two of those wins came against Wolves and Burnley, who occupy the bottom two places in the division. 

Spurs have become a bogey team for Leeds United in recent years

In terms of the historical record, Spurs have a clear advantage over Leeds. Over the last 24 years the two clubs have met fifteen times, of which they’ve won eleven, drawn two and lost two. They’ve also won their last five a row against them, including a 2-1 win at Elland Road at the start of October, meaning that a Spurs win in this fixture would complete a league double for them over Leeds in each of the last three seasons.

Conor Gallagher proved a point at Villa Park last week

The player who really stepped up at Villa Park last weekend was Conor Gallagher, who scored an outstanding goal and put in a half-season-best performance in a season-best performance for the team. His arrival at the club in January raised an eyebrow or two, but his showing against Aston Villa went some way towards explaining his signature. 

After going four games without scoring, Leeds United have remembered how to again, though it remains to be seen, the extent to which the absence of Noah Okafor affects them in front of goal. They’ve scored 10 in their last four games, and the only player to have scored more than one of that ten other than Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, may have to shoulder a little extra goalscoring as a result of his absence. 

James Maddison could make a cautious return for Spurs

There are no fresh injuries for Roberto De Zerbi to have to worry about, for once. Xavi Simons, Gugliemo Vicario, Cristian Romero, Mohammed Kudus, Pape Mate Sarr, Wilson Odobert, Dominic Solanke, Ben Davies, and Dejan Kulusevski are all in the treatment room, though James Maddison continues to edge towards getting onto the pitch for a few minutes. 

Leeds’ most notable absentee is Okafor, who’ll be missing their next two matches with a calf strain. Pascal Struijk faces a late fitness test. Gabriel Gudmundsson remains out with a hamstring problem and Ilia Gruev’s season is over following a meniscus injury. Head coach Daniel Farke had to miss Friday’s media duties with illness, so he may even face a late fitness test himself. 

Recent improvement hints that Spurs could edge this match

Regardless of what happened at The London Stadium on Sunday afternoon, Spurs’ task against Leeds remains unchanged; they need to win. And when we remove everything else – all that other noise – from the equation, recent form has been a steady improvement, with seven points from the last nine and incrementally improving performances in each match. 

Winning this game would leave them on the cusp of safety, four points above West Ham and with a superior goal difference. One win from their final two games would seal it, and that’s if West Ham find a way of winning their final two games. There’s little question that the appointment of Roberto De Zerbi is having a positive effect on the team. The question is whether the club left his appointment too late to be able to correct their course for this season. 

Leeds are safe. Mission accomplished. And with three wins from their last four games they’re also in decent form. Daniel Farke has done an outstanding job in getting his team to the position in which they find themselves. He’s absolutely vindicated the decision not to pull the plug on him last summer. 

But the combination of improving performances and results starting to flow benefits Spurs, and a home win would do them good. Both of their Premier League wins in 2026 have come away from home and it’s now been more than five months since they last won at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but their recent upward swing and the fact that they need the points more than Leeds could swing it in their favour. 2-1 to Spurs, and potentially a big step towards safety. 

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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