Barcelona keen to close out a perfect home campaign
Barcelona have been the best team in LaLiga this season by most of the important metrics. One of their biggest advantages over their rivals has been their home form, as they have won every single league game played on their own turf this term.
The home points table heading into the weekend
If they win their two remaining games at Camp Nou, the Blaugrana will become the first team to complete a perfect home season in LaLiga since none other than Real Madrid in 1985/86. They have won each of their last 10 league games, so they definitely have great momentum behind them.
Chaos and infighting at Real Madrid
While Barcelona’s Clásico preparations are going about as well as possible, the exact opposite is true for Real Madrid. Los Blancos are almost certainly going to go trophyless in consecutive seasons for the first time in two decades, and they’re ending their campaign with a full-on implosion.
It has been a season of discord for the record Spanish champions, who had to part ways with Xabi Alonso mid-season amid a rift within the squad that always seemed out of his hands. His successor Álvaro Arbeloa hasn’t been able to sort matters out, as reports of further squabbles have consistently trickled in over recent months. Just earlier this week, matters escalated further than they have ever before as midfielders Federico Valverde and Aurélien Tchouaméni were involved in a bust-up that culminated in the Uruguayan international having to be taken to the hospital with a head injury.
Barcelona’s only absences are Lamine Yamal and Andreas Christensen, who will both remain unavailable for the rest of the season.
Key players
As speculation around Robert Lewandowski’s future heats up with his current contract expiring this summer, he will be keen to add to his Barcelona tally against their biggest rivals. Pedri is always an important figure for the hosts in midfield, while young Pau Cubarsí will have a key role to play in marshalling the back line.
In the absence of Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior has stepped up to the plate for Real Madrid lately with match-winning contributions in each of the last three games. Jude Bellingham could also have a big role to play in a depleted midfield, while Thibaut Courtois should expect a busy day at the office if he returns to the line-up following his recovery from a thigh injury.
Prediction
All things considered, it is hard to look past Barcelona clinching the title in comfortable fashion against their bitter rivals.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Thierno Barry crashed Man City’s party in their 3-3 draw with Everton last time out, giving Arsenal the advantage in the Premier League title race. With Brentford chasing Champions League football, City’s task won’t be any easier this weekend.
West Ham were swept aside by Keith Andrews’ high flying bees, putting them in seventh, just one point off Bournemouth, which could become a CL spot if Aston Villa finish in fifth and win the Europa League.
City still have a game in hand on Arsenal, but it wouldn’t be unfair to suggest the league leaders have an easier time of things in their remaining fixtures. Never count Pep Guardiola and his boys out though, this isn’t their first rodeo.
The table as it stands prior to Saturday’s games
Explosive Doku
Now is the time for Man City’s big money men to really prove their worth. Jérémy Doku has been inconsistent this season, but recency bias is a real thing, and if he continues the performances he’s been putting in over the past couple of weeks, all will be forgotten.
It was Doku’s 97th minute strike that secured a point for City at Everton, his second goal of the game. Without it, that Premier League trophy may as well have just been handed to Arsenal on a silver platter. With it, they still have a chance.
He now has three goal contributions in his last two league games, considering he only has four goals and five assists in his 26 so far, that’s quite a good return. It’s all on the line for City, if they do miss out, Doku won’t be to blame.
The most underrated player in the league?
Mikkel Damsgaard doesn’t do a bunch of tricks, in fact, he goes under the radar in most games, but he didn’t in the win over West Ham. The Dane put in arguably his best performance of the season.
Those players that consistently put in 7/10 performances, I mean, he literally has a 7.00 average rating from us at FotMob, are becoming rarer and rarer. It’s not their fault, it’s hard to be consistent in an inconsistent league.
The midfielder has one hell of an engine. Brentford are a side that press heavily, and Daamsgard is their trigger, with possession won in the final third 23 times, 22 interceptions, and 50 tackles, he’s key to everything they do.
Team news
Joško Gvardiol (tibial fracture) and Rúben Dias (ankle) are set to remain sidelined for Man City, but they should be returning fairly soon. That may be a little irrelevant though, considering they only have four games left.
It remains to be seen whether Rodri will feature, City certainly missed the midfield foundation he provided against Everton. If there is a slight chance he can play, he probably will.
Haaland vs. Thiago is the battle for the Golden Boot
Prediction
There is a LOT on the line for both sides in this one, and considering City draw with Everton, it’s hard to call. We’re going to go with a 2-1 City win. That experience and home advantage will just about see them over the line.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Michael Carrick has three auditions left to show why he should be given the Manchester United job on a permanent basis and getting his team to have one of the league’s best away records for the season would be a strong point to have in his corner.
United have 25 points on the road this term, understandably fewer than Man City or Arsenal, but also fewer than Tottenham and the same as Chelsea, who have themselves only triumphed once on the road since the first week of February. Away to Sunderland was a tougher prospect in the first half of the campaign than it is now in the second, too.
United’s home and away points breakdown this season
Carrick and critics
Ten victories in 14 games since taking charge on an interim basis has some calling for Carrick to be given the job regardless, with United now comfortable in third after beating Liverpool last week and set to return to the Champions League. But higher-ups in the club are wary of repeating the Ole Gunnar Solskjaer situation. Strong start to life back at Old Trafford or not, his prior managerial history simply reads 136 games at Middlesbrough with a 46% win rate – not usually the CV which lands an appointment at the club. Balancing up that lack of experience with the inexplicable truth that sometimes, a head coach and club simply fit together, is the hierarchy’s job now. All Carrick can do is keep putting results on the board and let that do the talking. Close the gap at the top and be third in every respect – goals scored, conceded, home form and away – is really all he can now offer to highlight his case.
Platform for season two
As for Sunderland, it’s tempting but perhaps harsh to label them an “on the beach” side – by 4 January they were eighth and had only lost four, and by 4 March they’d hit the magical 40 points milestone, still joint-top half at the time. Understandably they’ve run out of steam in a first promoted season, winning only five of their last 19. All that matters though is taking lessons to repeat the trick next term, and not sinking to a disappointing league place now after all the early-season effort.
It’s three wins in ten for the Black Cats who have naturally tailed off a little, but they’ve also lost four of the last five at home.
Man United have won three on the bounce but haven’t enjoyed back-to-back away wins since December. They won at Chelsea in their last match on the road.
For every Man United game right now it’s Bruno Fernandes, a strong candidate for Player of the Year. Top of the Premier League for chances created per 90, accurate long passes, actual assists and big chances created. Top of all European midfielders for that last stat, in fact.
Bruno Fernandes is our best rated player in the Premier League this season
Prediction
An away win but maybe not a pretty one: Sunderland 1-2 Manchester United.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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A win for Liverpool this week guarantees them a top five finish and Champions League football next term. Heading to Anfield for a Saturday afternoon kick-off is a free-falling Chelsea side without a permanent manager. It couldn’t be more straightforward for the Reds.
But there’s been nothing straightforward about Liverpool’s 2025/26 campaign. The Reds started with a perfect record, winning five from five, albeit unconvincingly. They then went on a losing run before levelling out a bit. Despite their inconsistent form, they’ve managed to drag themselves into the top five.
It hasn’t been pretty. Despite heading to Old Trafford last weekend having won three on the bounce in the Premier League, the Reds had been fortunate in games against Fulham and Crystal Palace. In fact, the Eagles battered Arne Slot’s side at Anfield, finishing with an Expected Goals total of 2.26. Liverpool, meanwhile, carved out chances worth 1.14 xG on their way to a 3-1 win.
Manchester United then did the same to the Reds last weekend. The 3-2 scoreline doesn’t tell the story. The Red Devils had an xG of 2.34 and gave up chances worth just 0.88 xG. Had Liverpool escaped with a draw, it would’ve been one of the most undeserved points of the campaign.
A top five finish looks to be a certainty but the way Liverpool have been playing recently, coupled with their tough run of fixtures, means they need to get over the line before it becomes a one-game shootout.
Get the job done on Saturday and it makes games against Aston Villa and Brentford so much easier.
Chelsea head into this game as the worst form team in the Premier League. They’re bottom of the form table, have scored just one goal in their last five matches and are managerless following the dismissal of Liam Rosenior. They were dismantled by a weakened Nottingham Forest last time out and have conceded three goals in four of their last five in the English top-flight.
The Blues went from looking like a shoo-in for a top four finish to languishing in ninth position, just three points ahead of 13th placed Newcastle United. A win at Anfield gives them an outside chance of competing in Europe next season if they can use those three points as a platform to finish the season well. It’s a big ask though.
Key Players
The Liverpool front line is looking a little threadbare at the moment. Hugo Ekitike is out. Alexander Isak could return but who knows if he’ll be risked from the start and we still don’t know whether Mohamed Salah will be fit enough for minutes at Anfield. It means the focus, once again, will be on Florian Wirtz. He failed to impress against Manchester United last time out. He’ll want a better showing against the Blues.
For the away side, the focus will be on Cole Palmer. He’s had an injury hit campaign and missed a penalty against Nottingham Forest. He’s going to be eager to play his way into some form ahead of the World Cup and an eye-catching showing at Anfield would go a long way.
Team News
Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni and Ekitike won’t be seen again this season. Giorgi Mamardashvili remains out injured but there’s hope that Isak and Salah will at least be fit enough to bolster Slot’s options off of the bench.
Chelsea have a full squad to select from but with an FA Cup final on the horizon, they’ll perhaps be looking to keep key players fresh which could see caretaker manager Calum McFarlane opt for some rotation on Merseyside.
Prediction
We’re going with a 2-1 win for Liverpool.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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As Arsenal celebrated reaching their first Champions League final for 20 years, and only their second in club history, Bukayo Saka was pushed to the front by his teammates to take the adulation. After all, he was the one who scored the winner against Atlético Madrid. The one who booked the Gunners’ place in the Budapest showpiece.
More than this, Saka provided Arsenal with the forward thrust to get past a stubborn opponent. In a tight match that didn’t generate a huge number of clear opportunities, the 24-year-old was the Gunners’ most consistent attacking threat, isolating Matteo Ruggeri as often as possible down the right side.
Saka’s winner came from following in a Leandro Trossard shot that was initially saved by Jan Oblak, pouncing quickly after anticipating the spill in the six-yard box. It demonstrated Saka’s finishing instincts as a poacher. Out wide, though, he is such an important component of Arsenal’s entire approach as a team.
Mikel Arteta wants control. His ethos as a coach is about commanding as many variables as possible and Arsenal certainly succeed in doing this against Atlético. It never felt truly likely that Diego Simeone’s side would find the back of the net against a home team that set a number of pressing traps all over the pitch.
Within that control, though, there is an important role for Saka as a difference-maker. The way Arsenal cluster possession sequences down the left is designed to open up space for Saka to exploit on the right through his speed and dribbling ability. He gives the Gunners a different dimension.
Saka’s traits comparison against similar players in top 5 leagues
Arsenal have missed Saka. Not just when the 24-year-old has been sidelined through injury, but in matches Saka has struggled to find his best football. As the Gunners’ 2025/26 campaign started to slip through their fingers over the first few months of the year, Saka was a shadow of his useful self.
This was evident in Saka’s raw numbers. Last season, the winger registered 16 goal contributions for Arsenal in the Premier League. Before his recent goal and assist against Fulham, he had just nine goal contributions for the current campaign. Saka was struggling to impact matches in the same way.
In Saka’s last two outings, though, the explosiveness has been back in his play. Fulham stood no chance of stopping the England international who twisted Raúl Jiménez into a pretzel by skinning the Mexican to set up Viktor Gyökeres. His near-post finish to make it 2-0 was the sign of a player operating with confidence again.
Saka’s Premier League passing stats this season still compare well against his peers (the bar indicators)
“He’s come back in the most important period of the season, and now he’s fresh, his mind is fresh, his hunger is at the highest possible height, and I think he needed a performance like that to impact the team,” said Arteta after Saka’s eye-catching display against Fulham. The Spaniard is surely relieved one of his best players is thriving once more.
Thomas Tuchel is almost certainly delighted to see Saka look like Saka again. The 24-year-old will be a key figure for England at this summer’s World Cup with Tuchel, like Arteta at club level, reliant on Saka as a source of verticality and direct threat on the right wing.
While there is a place in Tuchel’s lineup to be earned on the left side of the forward line, Saka has been England’s first-choice on the right wing for a number of years. It’s crucial for Three Lions that he is in peak condition otherwise England might fall short like they did at Euro 2020 and Euro 2024.
Victory over Atlético Madrid put Arsenal into their first Champions League final since the Arsene Wenger era with the Gunners now just three more wins away from becoming Premier League champions. Domestic and European glory would make this the most successful season in the North London club’s history.
Saka can’t do it all on his own down the stretch. Gyökeres’ performance against Atlético on Tuesday was his best to date in an Arsenal shirt with the Swedish striker now on 21 goals for the season. He has proved his critics wrong and will have a significant role to play before the end of May.
Declan Rice remains one of the best central midfielders in the world while Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba’s centre back partnership is the foundation upon which Arteta has built his entire team. From back to front, Arsenal have the quality to compete against any opponent at the elite level.
Arsenal’s remaining fixtures
In Saka, though, the ultimate success or failure of their season could be determined. The Premier League and Champions League trophies could be on his boot, particularly his left boot which can do so much damage in and around the penalty area. Arsenal need him to keep up his resurgent form.
(Images from IMAGO)
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Coventry City and Ipswich Town have sealed promotion to the Premier League the ‘easy way’, but there’s still one more top-flight spot up for grabs the hard way; it’s time for the Championship play-offs.
Millwall have already enjoyed their best campaign since relegation from the old First Division in 1990, falling one point short of automatic promotion, but head coach Alex Neil knows their “unbelievable season” could get a whole lot better.
The only manager in these play-offs who can attest to what it takes to win them – having led Norwich City to the Premier League 11 years ago (and taken Sunderland up from League One the same way in 2022) – Neil certainly has experience on his side – and the Scot’s know-how has evidently stood Millwall in good stead up to now.
In the Championship play-offs for the first time in 24 years, Millwall will doubtless hope to draw on the famously vociferous atmosphere of The Den – though it’s on the road where they truly excel, finishing with the best regular-season away record of 41 points, with their 11 away wins including a 3-1 triumph at semi-final opponents Hull in March.
But Millwall are more likely to shut a team out than blow them away, as they proved by keeping a division-high 18 clean sheets and conceding the third-fewest goals behind the top two (49). That’s testament to the Lions’ tenacious defending, built around the centre-back partnership of Caleb Taylor and captain and Player of the Year Jake Cooper – the former of whom they’ll be hoping is fit for the play-offs, having missed the last two games with a foot injury.
Millwall lead the league for clean sheets
At the other end of the pitch, winger Femi Azeez and striker Josh Coburn are Millwall’s form men, the former scoring three goals in the last three regular-season games – including both in the 2-0 final-day win over Oxford United – and the latter five in the last 10. As with Taylor, though, the Lions are sweating on the fitness of Coburn after he was forced off with a hip problem against Leicester City two weeks ago.
The form team heading into the play-offs, Southampton didn’t lose a Championship game between mid-January and the end of the regular season – not to mention upsetting Premier League leaders Arsenal in the FA Cup quarter-finals then leading Manchester City before eventually succumbing to defeat in the semis.
Rewind six months, though, and the Saints didn’t look anything like a play-off team. After just two wins from their first 13 Championship fixtures, a second successive relegation looked the likelier prognosis for the side who propped up the Premier League table last term. Then along came Tonda Eckert.
Initially named interim head coach following the sacking of Will Still at the start of November, U21 coach Eckert instantly transformed Southampton’s fortunes and was soon handed the first-team job on a permanent basis. By mid-March, the Saints were in the top six, and they were still in contention to go up automatically until their penultimate game.
Despite their early-season struggles, Southampton went on to finish with the third-best home record in the Championship, losing only three times at St Mary’s. As Arsenal discovered last month, it’s a tough place to go – and the Saints can lean on home advantage in the second leg of their semi-final against Middlesbrough.
Cyle Larin, Southampton’s loan star
Southampton are also the division’s second-highest scorers in 2025/26 behind champions Coventry; they’re more than capable of overpowering their way to Wembley. Seven Saints players have notched seven or more league goals this term, with Cyle Larin enjoying a purple patch of late: the Canadian international, on loan from Mallorca, struck five times in the final seven games of the regular campaign, including once in each of the last three. Larin and co. are consistently fed by the team’s abundance of reliable creative outlets, with Brazilian winger Léo Scienza – a revelation since joining from German club Heidenheim last summer – chief among them with 10 assists.
Like Millwall, Middlesbrough could have snatched automatic promotion on the final day; instead, they go into the play-offs for the third time since relegation from the Premier League nine years ago. And they’ll be hoping it’s a case of third time lucky, having lost in the semi-finals on each of the previous two occasions.
Until early March, Boro looked well on course for a top-two finish – indeed, they occupied second place as recently as April 25 – but a return of two wins from their final 10 regular-season games ultimately put paid to that. Still, they have a shot at promotion amid a campaign of managerial upheaval, Kim Hellberg having succeeded Rob Edwards in November after Edwards left for top flight Wolves.
Despite struggling to keep clean sheets in recent weeks, Middlesbrough boast the Championship’s stingiest defence in terms of Expected Goals (xG) conceded, giving up a league-low total of 44.1 xG at an average of 0.96 per game over the course of the regular season. They’ll need to channel that kind of rearguard rigidity if they’re to thwart a free-scoring Southampton side in the semis.
Boro lead the league for lowest xG conceded
Key in that regard could be long-serving captain Dael Fry. Never shy of putting his body on the line, averaging a joint Championship-high 1.6 blocks per game in 2025/26, the 28-year-old is Boro through and through and will no doubt be determined to represent his boyhood club in the top flight for the first time.
While they be hoping Fry helps keep the goals out at one end, Middlesbrough’s biggest goalscoring threats come in the form of forwards Tommy Conway and David Strelec, who have found the net 21 times between them this season – both doing so in each of the last two matches.
Another side who were in the hunt for automatic promotion earlier in the campaign, Hull appeared to have blown their play-off hopes after going six games without a win in April. But the Tigers went into the final day knowing they still had a chance with sixth place up for grabs – and their comeback victory over Norwich City, coupled with Wrexham and Derby County dropping points, saw them into the Championship post-season for the first time in a decade.
By both points total and form, Hull are the play-off outsiders: they finished seven points off fifth-placed Boro and won only three out of 12 games between the beginning of March and the end of the regular season, losing 3-1 at home to Millwall during that period. History isn’t on their side in one respect either: no team finishing sixth in the Championship has gone on to win the play-offs since Blackpool in 2010.
However, history bodes well for Hull in another sense: they have a 100% second-tier play-off success record, earning promotion to the Premier League via that method in 2008 – when they reached the top flight for the first time in their history thanks to Dean Windass’ thumping Wembley volley against Bristol City – and 2016, either side of automatic promotion as Championship runners-up in 2013.
Manager Sergej Jakirović – hoping to end his first season in England in glorious fashion – can also call upon one of the Championship’s leading goalscorers in 17-goal Oli McBurnie. Only Golden Boot winner Žan Vipotnik of Swansea City found the net more times during the regular campaign than McBurnie, who helped Sheffield United to promotion to the Premier League three years ago.
The Top 5 scorers in the Championship
Hull have struggled to keep the goals out in recent months, managing a solitary clean sheet across 12 games in March and April (though that was against champions Coventry), but they can depend on one of the Championship’s best goalkeepers. Ivor Pandur – who earned his first senior Croatia call-up in November has made some big saves this season, recording one of the highest Goals Prevented tallies in the league (3.7).
(Images from IMAGO)
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There has been a lot happening in Portugal this season. Francesco Farioli’s Porto have just won the league, playing some of the best-looking football in Europe, José Mourinho made his Benfica return, AND is set to have an unbeaten season with no title.
So, with all that going on, Braga have been able to go under the radar. Traditionally ‘the best of the rest’ outside of the big three, Carlos Vicens, who was appointed last summer, looks set to continue that legacy.
Vicens is a really interesting coach. At the age of 29, while still working as a high school economics teacher, the Spaniard earned a string of lower-league promotions in the regional leagues of Mallorca.
Eventually, he outgrew it, and in his pursuit of new ideas. Vicens was drawn to Marcelo Bielsa’s Athletic Club, and after learning that the legendary Argentinian had an ‘open door’ policy with his training sessions, he went to watch and take notes.
He was hooked, and after six years of coaching in the Spanish lower leagues, Vicens earned a work experience placement at Man City. After a successful interview with Jason Wilcox and Txiki Begiristain, he was made a full-time coach for their under-12s.
It didn’t take long for the higher-ups to realise his expertise belonged with the senior team, and he was named as one of Pep Guardiola’s assistants. Ahead of City’s 2021/22 Community shied tie against Leicester, Guardiola told him to announce the squad.
“Everyone was looking at me, even Pep,” he told The Athletic. “He was probably the one — without saying a word — I felt the most pressure from, as it’s someone you don’t want to let down. We get it, we wouldn’t want to disappoint Pep either.
Braga is Vicens’ first senior managerial job, and those Bielsa / Guardiola influences are so obvious. They play on the front foot, with the highest average possession (63%) in the Liga Portugal, 530.1 accurate passes per match, and have created 88 big chances.
39-year-old former Wolves midfielder João Moutinho is the man in the driver’s seat for Braga. He plays like a quarter-back, not spraying balls up and down the pitch, but dictating play in a way we only usually see from a Rodri or Andrea Pirlo.
Moutinho averages 82.3 accurate passes per 90 minutes, the highest in the league. For context, Rodri averages 87.3, and he’s playing for much better Man City side. It’s no exaggeration to say this is an all timer of a season from the former Wolves midfielder.
The only sides that really beat Braga’s numbers are Porto, Benfica, and Sporting. The difference between those three and the rest of the league is vast, and with Vicens’ side 19 points adrift of Sporting in third, they’re still some way off.
Domestically, Braga’s season is over. They’re out of the League Cup and the Taça de Portugal, and with five points more than fifth placed Famalicão with two league games to go, they’ve all but secured European football for next season.
Braga’s current table position – the best outside Portugal’s Big Three
Braga entered the Europa League in the qualifiers this season, beating Levski Sofia, CFR Cluj, and then Lincoln Red Imps across three rounds to reach the league phase. As the tournament proper got underway, they continued to impress.
The Portuguese side beat European giants Feyenoord and Celtic, scoring three goals and conceding zero in their opening two games. Wins against FK Crvena Zvezda, Nice, and fellow semi-finalists Nottingham Forest would be enough to secure a top eight spot and a place in the round of 16.
Their journey very nearly ended there. Braga were drawn against Robbie Keane’s Ferencvaros and were well beaten by the Hungarian’s 2-0 in the first leg. They needed to gather themselves before the second.
Vicens reverted back to his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation, and in the first 45 minutes, Braga completely blew Ferencvaros out of the water. A brace from Ricardo Horta along with goals from Florian Grillitsch and Gabri Martínez earned a 4-2 aggregate comeback win.
Next up were 2024/25 Europa Conference League finalists Real Betis. The first leg was at home and Grillitsch gave Braga the lead after just five minutes. Striker Juan Hernández equalised from the spot nearly an hour later.
Twenty-six minutes into the second leg, it was once again starting to look like Braga’s European jaunt would be over. Betis were 2-0 up and cruising. Former Barcelona striker Pau Víctor pulled one back before the break and Braga then scored three in the second half to progress to the semis.
Betis’ decisive away win in the quarterfinals
Braga managed to avoid the two remaining English sides and were drawn against Freiburg. The first leg was an interesting tactical match-up. The Germans insisted on playing man-to-man, Vicens recognised this almost immediately, and with some clever rotation in the middle of the park, they were able to catch the visitors out.
Demir Tıknaz gave the home side the lead after just eight minutes, but eight more later, Vincenzo Grifo levelled things up for Freiburg. Braga had the chance to regain their lead from the spot after Philipp Lienhart took Gustaf Lagerbielke clean out, but Rodrigo Zalazar was denied by Noah Atubolu.
Of course, if you want to reach a European final, you need a little bit of luck. Atubolu went from hero to zero in added time when he couldn’t get a good grip of Carvalho’s shot, gifting winger Mario Dorgeles the winner.
That’s where our story syncs up. Whichever side out of Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa progress will undoubtedly be the favourite to win the Europa League. Outside of the Champions League, English sides are too strong for their middling European counterparts.
Braga have been to a European final before, though. Back in 2010/11, they faced Andre Villas Boas’ Porto, eventually losing thanks to a goal from Radamel Falcao. Now that’s a throwback.
Whether they make it this time around or not, the future is certainly bright for Braga. Vicens has already proven to be a more than capable manager, and if their smart yet ambitious recruitment continues, perhaps they could break Portugal’s triopoly.
(Images from IMAGO)
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While European heavyweights such as Roma and Chelsea have won the competition since then, it has also provided an opportunity for those lower down the food chain to enjoy some continental football.
Even for the more established teams, who will likely never win the Champions League, Europe’s third tier competition is a chance to capture silverware.
West Ham United had their moment in Prague in 2023. Olympiacos became the first Greek side to win a major European competition a year later.
Will Rayo Vallecano have their moment in 2026? Consistently overshadowed by Madrid neighbors Atlético and Real, Los Franjirrojos have the chance to do something neither the aforementioned duo can do this term – win top UEFA club honours!
The Conference League bracket
This is just Rayo’s second ever European campaign, with their last coming 25 years ago, when they reached the quarter-finals of the old UEFA Cup.
The Conference League provides a platform for clubs in the far corners of Europe to shine, but for modest Rayo, success would be extra special given how the club has operated in recent years.
A poorly run club on the brink of glory
Rayo owner and president Raúl Martín Presa has been battling with the supporters for years. In August 2025, certain fan groups published a statement that criticised the management of the club, with Presa being the main culprit.
“Everything else fails, shrinks, and there is only one culprit: the one who manages our entity and the small cohort of flatterers surrounding him”. Read the statement and truth be told, the fans had every right to complain.
Rayo’s home ground, the Vallecas stadium, has not been renovated since being built in the mid-70s. As such, parts of the stadium are in a derelict condition, often with no running hot water for either players or supporters.
Even the training ground has issues, with the players having to train elsewhere in pre-season because of a fungal infection in the grass.
Things unravelled back in February ahead of the clash against Atlético. Due to complaints from both fans and players, the game was moved from Vallecas to Butarque stadium, the home ground of second tier Leganés.
Despite the fact there were only 5,000 fans travelling for the match, Rayo sealed a stunning 3-0 victory.
Ahead of the Conference League semi-final first leg against Strasbourg, fans had to queue from Monday morning to secure a ticket, despite no specific time being given for when they were going on sale.
Rayo also don’t have an online box office. How then, have they managed to get here, standing on the cusp of a major European final?
Head coach Iñigo Pérez is the man behind the success.
Iñigo Pérez is the man leading Rayo’s European adventure
The 38-year-old was appointed manager in February 2024 and immediately proved to be a success, keeping Rayo in LaLiga by five points.
This was the catalyst for all that has followed. Last season, Rayo finished eighth in the Spanish top flight, thus securing a place in the Conference League this term.
Pérez’s men may have only scored 41 goals throughout the last league campaign, but outside the top-four, they boasted the third-best defensive record, conceding 45 times.
“Our idea is to win the ball back as soon as possible, and then to attack very quickly,” said Pérez during an interview with the Athletic last November.
“For the opposition never to get comfortable on the pitch. That’s what I like at Rayo — high pressing, direct play, dynamic positions, structures, a kind of ordered chaos to create chances and score goals.”
His system clearly worked a treat, with Rayo scoring five goals across four matches against Real Madrid and Barcelona.
A modest club constantly overachieving
This season, although safety remains the ultimate priority – Rayo sit 11th at the time of writing – the chance of lifting a major trophy would be Pérez’s crowning glory.
Rayo defeated Belarusian side Neman Grodno 5-0 on aggregate to reach the league phase of the Conference League, but it didn’t take them long to make their mark in the competition proper.
Indeed, wins over Shkëndija (Macedonia), Lech Poznan, Jagiellonia (both Polish) and FC Drita (of Kosovo) helped the Spanish side finish fifth, suffering only one defeat in the process.
The knockout stage is where things began to get fun. A 3-2 aggregate victory over Turkish outfit Samsunspor set up a quarter-final meeting with Greek giants AEK Athens.
Fairytale over surely. Not quite. A spectacular 3-0 home win ensured Rayo went to Greece with a massive advantage. Despite the 3-1 loss in Athens, Pérez had led his side to their first ever European semi-final.
A header from centre-forward Alemão gave Rayo a 1-0 advantage that they will take into the second leg against Strasbourg tonight – Thursday evening.
Their success in the competition is no fluke. Not only do Rayo rank second out of all teams for goals per game (1.9), but they also rank third for shots on target per game (5.6) in the competition.
Confidence is building and while the atmosphere at the Stade de la Meinau will be boisterous during the second leg, Perez and his team will be determined to reach the final in Leipzig on May 27.
Both Real and Atlético will finish the season trophyless. As for Rayo, they could have bragging rights of the capital, even if it is only for a fleeting moment.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The English giants from the early 80s battling to relive European glory
Unai Emery‘s decision to rotate his squad in the Premier League over the weekend backfired, as Aston Villa suffered a third consecutive defeat across all competitions, possibly denting the players’ confidence further ahead of the return leg against Nottingham Forest.
The Villans continue to struggle in front of goal, with only Emiliano Buendía finding the back of the net over the past 270 minutes of action. On the bright side, Forest are winless at Villa Park since 1994, which boosts the hosts’ hopes of overturning the one-goal deficit from the City Ground last week.
First leg key stats
Unlike Villa, the Tricky Trees extended their five-match winning and 10-match unbeaten run across all competitions with a comfortable victory at Stamford Bridge on Monday, which opened a six-point gap between them and the relegation zone. Vítor Pereira made no less than eight changes in the starting lineup against Chelsea, but each and every one of the fringe players impressed, and Forest will travel to Birmingham full of confidence, looking to secure a place in a European final for the first time since 1980, which would be a monumental achievement.
Key players
Ollie Watkins is on a three-match goalscoring drought, but the England international remains Aston Villa’s starting striker and the pressure is on the 30-year-old to end his dry spell and lead the club into the Europa League final. Despite his recent form, the 15-goal centre-forward is the Lions’ leading goalscorer this season, and no player in the squad amasses higher xG per 90 (0.43) and shots on target per 90 (1) in the Premier League. Furthermore, Villa’s no. 11 got on the scoresheet against Forest at Villa Park earlier in the season.
Igor Jesus has adjusted well in his debut season in English football and the Brazilian is Nottingham Forest’s joint top scorer alongside Morgan Gibbs-White with 16 goals across all competitions. The 25-year-old has also impressed with his performances in the Europa League and the striker boasts the highest xG (6.7) in the competition, making him the leading goalscorer (7 goals). Last but not least, the in-form forward found the net three times over his past four appearances, averaging a FotMob rating of 7.55 in those games.
Team news
Unai Emery did not want to take any risks with John McGinn who missed the last match due to not being fully fit and Amadou Onana was absent through a calf injury, making them doubtful for Thursday, while Boubacar Kamara is out for the remainder of the season.
Vítor Pereira made wholesale changes against Chelsea and rested many of the key players, but Forest’s injury list is still extensive, and Morgan Gibbs-White only added to his worries getting a deep cut to the forehead at Stamford Bridge and being the latest doubt for the return leg.
Prediction
Despite Aston Villa being on a poor run, Unai Emery’s squad displayed quality and character over the past few seasons to rise to the occasion, while Nottingham Forest are definitely playing their best football of the season at the moment. With that being said, I expect a close return leg and would only give a narrow advantage to the hosts because of their richer European experience in recent times and Forest’s poor record at Villa Park.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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There was so much to marvel at during last week’s encounter between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s brace-scoring performance got lost in the post-match discussion. Without the Georgian’s contribution, though, the defending European champions might not have edged the nine-goal thriller.
Kvaratskhelia, nicknamed ‘Kvaradona’ both for ease of pronunciation and other obvious reasons, has been PSG’s main man for the big European games this season. Indeed, the winger has scored 10 goals in just 14 Champions League appearances, meaning only Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane have scored more goals than him in the competition this season.
From his position on the left side of arguably the most dangerous frontline in European football, Kvaratskhelia is a difference-maker in a unique mould. While so many of the Georgian’s teammates are defined by their hustle and bustle, Kvaratskhelia has a languid quality that makes him unflappable in the final third.
This was evident in his two finishes in the 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in last week’s Champions League semi-final first leg. The first one saw Kvaratskhelia take on Josip Stanišić before slowing himself to bend a shot into the far corner of the net, demonstrating the winger’s one-on-one ability.
The second finish to give PSG a two-goal cushion at 4-2 was a strike that might have looked straightforward at first, but it would have been easy for Kvaratskhelia to balloon his shot over the crossbar. Achraf Hakimi’s cut-back arrived at his feet with speed and it was impressive that the finish was so controlled under such intense pressure.
Kvaratskhelia’s shot map vs. Bayern, first goal highlighted
While languid in his body language, Kvaratskhelia has fully bought into Luis Enrique’s methods since making the move to the Parc des Princes from Napoli in January 2025. At the time, there were concerns over the Georgian’s ability and willingness to press from the front. For Napoli, he’d been afforded more freedom than many of his teammates due to his quality.
Enrique, however, expects all members of his PSG team to play with the highest intensity. He tolerates no passengers and Kvaratskhelia is an important part of PSG’s pressing structure, making three defensive contributions in the Champions League victory over Bayern Munich.
It’s with the ball at his feet, though, that Kvaratskhelia does the most damage. That’s where he does his best work. No PSG player is averaging more dribblers per 90 minutes this season than the 25-year-old who gives the French giants a slightly different dimension in the attacking third.
Kvaratskhelia’s possession stats in Ligue 1 this season
While Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué frequently play close together, linking up quickly through zipped passes that allow PSG to construct possession sequences through the centre of the pitch, Kvaratskhelia likes to separate himself on the left side. He wants to isolate an opposition defender when everyone else is focused on what’s happening in the middle.
When PSG are flowing, as they were for the majority of last week’s encounter with Harry Kane and co., they are almost impossible to stop. This is particularly the case when Hakimi joins the attacking unit from right back, giving the opposition another player to cover when Dembélé, Doué and Kvaratskhelia are a handful as it is.
Kvaratskhelia’s defensive numbers in the Champions League this season
Hakimi’s absence through injury could force Enrique into a slightly more pragmatic approach for Wednesday’s rematch at the Allianz Arena. PSG don’t have another player who can perform the right back role like the Moroccan does because there might not be another player in world football capable of that.
Bayern Munich might also shuffle their defensive pack to add more recovery speed in an attempt to close up some of the space PSG exploited at the Parc des Princes. Stanišić had a torrid time defending against Kvaratskhelia and it’s possible Vincent Kompany will favour Konrad Laimer for the second leg.
Nonetheless, Kvaratskhelia could be a match-winner for the defending European champions. On a pitch that will include some of the best players in the world at this moment in time, the Georgian could shine brighter than anyone else if last week’s first leg performance is anything to go by.
“Khvicha has been at a high level all season,” said Enrique when asked about the standard being set by Kvaratskhelia for his team. “I’m not speaking about his quality because everyone knows about that. But I’m talking about his character, the way he defends, regardless of the fixture. So that is really important.”
In a team of superstars, Kvaratskhelia stands out. He is both a reflection of the modern game in the way he presses and a throwback to another era of the sport when mercurial dribblers were more common at the elite level. There’s something inherently captivating about watching him play.
(Images from IMAGO)
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