Page 143 – The Pulse of Football

Jan

2025

The FA Cup needs to change in order to recapture that lost magic

The FA Cup could regain it’s magic by learning lessons from more captivating cup competitions played around the world.

There is nothing more quintessentially English on the football calendar than FA Cup third round weekend. It’s when the modern game clashes with the tradition of another era and the fabled ‘magic of the cup’ is palpable. Or at least, that used to be the case.

The FA Cup lost its lustre some time ago. Fans and experts may try to make a case for the oldest cup competition in club football, but the game has moved on. Increasingly, the FA Cup is seen as an irrelevance, certainly at the elite level.

It doesn’t have to be this way, though. Indeed, the FA Cup could learn lessons from other cup competitions around the world. At 154 years old, the FA Cup needs a rethink. Some new ideas could make it special again.

Spain’s Copa del Rey could offer some inspiration, certainly regarding the competition’s early rounds which are seeded. This means there are no all-LaLiga ties in the early rounds, instead pitting the country’s biggest clubs against lower league minnows.

On top of this, the minnows are always given the opportunity to host. Barcelona, for example, travelled to fourth tier Barbastro last week where they played on a muddy pitch in front of a crowd of just a few thousand. Despite their 4-0 win, it was a humbling experience for Hansi Flick and his players.

There were a number of upsets across last weekend’s Copa del Rey round of 32, including a 3-0 win for fourth tier Pontevedra over last season’s competition runners up Mallorca. Sevilla were also thumped 4-1 by second division Almería.

If the ‘magic of the cup’ is most evident in the upsets produced in a competition, the FA Cup must do more to harness its lower league participants in the early rounds. What do so many all-Premier League ties – like Aston Villa v West Ham and Arsenal v Manchester United this weekend – offer fans that the Premier League itself doesn’t already?

While the Premier League is purely concerned with producing the highest quality of football, the FA Cup should be designed to produce storylines. Neutral viewers won’t tune in to Saturday’s third round tie between Manchester City and Salford City hoping to see a win for Pep Guardiola’s team. They want to see a shock.

The Coupe de France is another cup competition that has a strong track record of providing a pathway to lower league teams. Last season, Ligue 2 Valenciennes made a run to the semi-finals. The season before that, Annency of the same division also made the final four. In 2000, amateur side Calais reached the final.

English football could follow the lead of its neighbour across the Channel by scrapping the League Cup. That’s what France did by abolishing the Coupe de la Ligue in 2020, primarily to ease fixture congestion. The competition was seen as superfluous, as many would argue the Carabao Cup is.

However, a byproduct of the Coupe de la Ligue’s scrapping has been a more intense spotlight on the Coupe de France, French football’s last remaining cup competition for all teams in the league pyramid. Might a similar move to get rid of the Carabao Cup help boost the FA Cup?

In Scotland, they have experimented with a group stage in the League Cup that guarantees each team a certain number of matches. A seeded draw means every group pairs sides from the top two divisions against relative minnows, increasing the likelihood of an upset. Other innovations – like penalty kicks for a bonus point in the event of a draw – have also been introduced.

It’s never been more important for there to be a common thread through the fabric of English football and the FA Cup provides this. While the rich getter richer at Premier League-level, the fact that the competition tethers the biggest clubs in the country to those further down the ladder should be cherished.

Such is the wealth at the top of English football in the modern age, no format change will alter the dynamic of the FA Cup’s latter rounds. Since 2013, only one non-Big Six member (Leicester City) has won the competition and that run is expected to continue indefinitely. The grip of England’s biggest clubs on the trophy is a firm one.

The magic of the FA Cup, however, could be rekindled by looking to how other cup competitions have caught the imagination and found their place in the modern game. The FA Cup might be the original, but the likes of the Copa del Rey and Coupe de France have surpassed it as the best. Measures must be taken to change that.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the FA Cup on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Madrid and Mallorca meet in the second Supercopa semifinal

Real Madrid are hoping to make it back-to-back Spanish Super Cup triumphs as Carlo Ancelotti’s team look to continue a run of five wins in six games.

By Graham Ruthven

Real momentum

After an uncertain start to the season, Real Madrid are building momentum having won five of their last six matches in all competitions with last week’s victory over Valencia a classic comeback by Los Blancos.

Jude Bellingham’s stoppage time winner at Mestalla continued his scoring run of six goals in seven games and came with Real Madrid down to 10 men after the sending off of Vinícius Júnior. The Spanish champions backed this up with a 5-0 Copa del Rey win over Minera on Monday.

Three games in under a week could make fatigue a factor for Madrid against Mallorca, but the talent advantage will be in the favour of the Spanish champions.

Mallorca enter the Spanish Super Cup after making last season’s Copa del Rey final. More recently, though, Jagoba Arrasate’s team suffered an embarrassing cup exit at the hands of fourth tier Pontevedra as the defending Copa champions.

The Balearic Islands outfit will have to rediscover the magic of last season’s Copa del Rey run to stand any chance against Ancelotti‘s side in Riyadh.

Key players

Bellingham has been pushed forward into a more advanced role in recent weeks which has seen the England international score a number of important goals, including the late winner at Valencia.

Kylian Mbappé will lead the line for Real Madrid with Vinícius available despite being sent off on Monday night. The suspension only applies to LaLiga and so the Brazilian will likely line up on the left wing.

However, there are still questions over Ancelotti’s integration of Mbappé and Vinícius into the same forward line with Real Madrid recently playing better without the latter.

After naming a much-changed team for that Copa upset, the likes of Pablo Maffeo, Vedat Muriqi, Cyle Larin, Dominik Greif and Sergi Darder could come back into the lineup for Thursday’s match.

Muriqi scored against Real Madrid in the opening game of the season and will pose a physical and aerial threat with Mallorca’s game plan designed to get service into the 30-year-old centre forward.

Goalkeeper Greif should expect a busy evening against one of the most formidable frontlines in European football.

Team news

Madrid remain without Dani Carvajal who is expected to miss the rest of the season through injury, explaining why Los Blancos are reportedly keen to sign Trent Alexander-Arnold to fill the vacant right back spot.

Éder Militão and Jesús Vallejo will also miss Thursday’s match against Mallorca, although David Alaba is now back in training after a year on the sidelines. This game, however, will come too soon for the Austrian.

Defensive midfielder Samu Costa is the only Mallorca player expected to miss the Spanish Super Cup semi-final with Arrasate otherwise boasting a fully fit squad despite knocks to Antonio Raíllo and Antonio Sánchez.

Prediction

As one of the most successful clubs in world football, Madrid don’t often miss out on the opportunity to collect more silverware. We’re therefore predicting that they will make it safely through to Sunday’s final: Real Madrid 2-0 Mallorca

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Spanish Supercopa with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Analysis: The factors behind Tottenham’s disappointing season so far

The first half of the 2024/25 season has gone pretty poorly for Tottenham Hotspur, who are currently 12th in the Premier League standings and on course for their worst league finish in over two decades. As pressure starts to build around head coach Ange Postecoglu’s position, it is worth examining what is going wrong.

By Neel Shelat

After an eighth-place league finish in 2022/23 – their worst in about 15 seasons – Tottenham Hotspur went for a change in direction and hired a relatively unproven head coach in the form of Ange Posecoglu. While the Australian tactician had a great deal of experience from around the world, he had not worked at the most elite level for as long as predecessors such as José Mourinho or Antonio Conte. More importantly, his style of play was quite different, requiring the squad to be rebuilt in his image.

About 18 months down the line, the Premier League table alone suggests Spurs’ fortunes have not improved much. However, it hardly paints an accurate picture. There are a myriad of factors that need to be analysed to appropriately assess Tottenham Hotspur’s current position.

Exceeding expectations in 2023/24

Postecoglu’s side might actually have done too well for their own good in their first season. Many analysts warned that they would need a good deal of time and transfers to properly click, so another finish outside the European spots was said to be on the cards. Instead, Spurs finished as high as fifth and even came within a couple of points of the Champions League places, naturally leading fans to get their hopes up for what they would have expected to be an even better second season.

However, it is worth noting that Tottenham overperformed in various respects last term. It could also be argued that rivals’ struggles were the main reason they jumped up three spots from the previous campaign. Indeed, Manchester United, Newcastle United and Chelsea – who all finished above Spurs in 2022/23 – had disappointing seasons for varying reasons. Even then, Tottenham had to outperform their expected points pretty significantly to finish fifth.

*In the 2023/24 xG table – Spurs actually finished 9 points better off than their xG numbers suggested*

Had Spurs ended up in a mid-table position last season and improved to fifth in 2024/25, there would surely be widespread positivity around Postecoglu’s work.

Unending injury issues

Tottenham’s league position last season earned them UEFA Europa League qualification, which obviously is a positive on the whole. However, one downside was an increased number of fixtures since they did not play European football in 2023/24. This has proven to be an issue in some respects as the constant barrage of matches has likely contributed to Spurs’ ever-increasing injury list.

The perfect encapsulation of Tottenham’s ongoing predicament is the fact that their first-choice back four of Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Destiny Udogie have only shared the pitch for 15 minutes since starting eight of the season’s first nine Premier League matches together. At present, all of them bar Porro is out injured, as is first-choice goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and backup defender Ben Davies. While the forward department has not suffered such massive losses simultaneously, each of Tottenham’s senior attackers other than Dejan Kulusevski have also missed some matches this season.

As a result of these absences, Postecoglu has had to fashion all sorts of makeshift solutions from fielding teenage full back Archie Gray at the heart of the defence to consistently using 17-year-old attacking talent Mikey Moore for a stretch of games. Despite these players’ best efforts, Spurs’ performances and results have naturally taken a hit.

Tactical rigidity

While there is a significant element of misfortunate behind Tottenham’s injury crisis, it would not be right to entirely absolve Postecoglu of all blame. For one, critics may argue that his intense style of play is at least partly causing all these injuries, and it also makes it more difficult for those looking to return to full fitness.

An even stronger point is the fact that the 59-year-old coach has changed next to nothing in his system despite having to field players out of position and consistently failing to get good results. For example, his tactics are quite demanding on the centre-backs as they are often left isolated with a lot of ground to cover both in and out of possession. While the likes Romero and Van de Ven are adept at such roles, it is unreasonable to expect a teenager playing out of position in his first top-flight season to do an equally good job.

So, Postecoglu unwillingness to tweak his approach is one part of the reason that Spurs have conceded the fifth-highest xG tally in the league so far.

Questionable transfer business

Perhaps the biggest cause of Tottenham’s struggles this season is neither their tactical approach nor their luck with injuries but their work in the summer transfer window. Postecoglu did a fantastic job of making do with what he had last season and refashioning various players to suit his system, but there was still a good deal of work to be done in the transfer window to properly consolidate the squad. From attack to defence, various positions could have used reinforcement, but not all got them.

Spurs fans have often been displeased with a perceived lack of investment from their owners, but they have spent nine-digit sums on transfer fees in five of the last six seasons. They invested close to €150 million last summer, so the real issue lies in their decision-making rather than raw spending.

Almost half of the money Tottenham spent ahead of this season was on one player: Dominic Solanke. While he has not performed poorly at all, a big-money striker should never have been Spurs’ top priority. They averaged close to two goals per game in the league last season, so their attack was doing fine. Instead, they could have made a couple of signings in the defensive department, and with hindsight, it is easy to see why going into the season with just three out-and-out centre-backs was a bad idea.

Postecoglu has certainly proven that he can take a full-strength squad to impressive heights, so Tottenham must aim to support him with appropriate squad building. As long as he can field something close to a first-choice XI, the Australian tactician should still be fully backed to succeed with Spurs.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Athletic Club looking to extend Cup run against Barcelona

Just two days after the end of the Supercoppa Italiana, Saudi Arabia is hosting the Supercopa de España in a similar four-team format. Athletic Club and Barcelona will kick the action off in the first semi-final.

By Neel Shelat

Athletic’s impressive cup record against Barça

Athletic Club have not defeated Barcelona in any of their last nine league games, but their head-to-head record in cups is quite different. The Basque side have knocked the Catalan giants out of the Copa del Rey in their last two clashes in the competition, requiring extra time to do so on both occasions. They also triumphed in their last two Supercopa meetings, winning 5-1 on aggregate in 2015 and registering yet another extra-time win in 2020.

Barcelona eager for Lamine Yamal’s return

Barcelona have not done well after teenage superstar Lamine Yamal picked up an injury in mid-December. They lost the game he went off in at Leganés and suffered another defeat in the subsequent league match against Atlético Madrid, so their only win came against a lower-tier side in the Copa del Rey.

Head coach Hansi Flick was optimistic about the 17-year-old winger’s availability for this match, though he stopped short of confirming it. Either way, given Barcelona’s terrible track record with injury issues for young stars, they would be wise to carefully ease him back into the side.

In the meantime, Barça will hope to see some of their other creative players step up. Lamine Yamal is the outright assists leader in LaLiga ahead of Raphinha, who will be fresh after being rested on the weekend. However, no one else in the squad has more than three.

Unregistered players in Barcelona’s travelling squad

Barcelona had a two-week break around Christmas and the New Year, but they remained in the news thanks to their semiannual lever-pulling tradition. Even without any new signings made in the January window so far, they have squad registration issues to contend with as Dani Olmo and Pau Víctor can no longer feature for the team as things stand. However, the pair have travelled to Saudi Arabia with the squad.

On the bright side, Barça’s injury list is now down to just the two players with season-ending ACL injuries. Andreas Christensen is back after a long Achilles tendon issue, while Ronald Araújo made his return against Barbastro on the weekend.

Athletic’s impressive defensive solidity

Athletic Club have some injury issues of their own as top-scorer Oihan Sancet, centre-back Yeray Álvarez and defensive midfielder Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta will all miss out. Nevertheless, they will back themselves to record yet another win over Barcelona thanks to their collective defensive solidity.

Under ex-Barça head coach Ernesto Valverde, the Basque side have consistently maintained one of the best defensive blocks in Spain. So far this season, they have conceded the third-lowest xG tally in LaLiga.

In the potential absence of creative players like Lamine Yamal and Olmo, Barcelona will surely find it tough to unlock this staunch defence.

Prediction

A minor format change has seen extra time eliminated from the Supercopa this season. Athletic may look to use that to their advantage having won each of their last five penalty shoot-outs, though their direct attacking threat might even make the difference in regulation time.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow the Spanish Supercopa live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Spurs and Liverpool’s Carabao Cup semi-final, first leg

Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool meet for the second time in just over two weeks with a place in the Carabao Cup final on the line.

By Graham Ruthven

Silverware symbolism

Ange Postecoglou’s assertion that he always wins silverware in his second season at a club will be tested as Tottenham come up against the best team in the country in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.

Spurs are struggling badly for league form having won just one of their last eight games. However, glory in the Carabao Cup would prove the North London outfit are still heading in the right direction.

There won’t be so much pressure on Liverpool such is their strong standing at the top of the Premier League table right now, but winning the first domestic trophy of the season would be symbolic for Arne Slot as the Reds’ new manager.

With both teams known for their attacking football, Tottenham and Liverpool could put on a spectacle. Indeed, there has been over 2.5 goals in eight of the last nine meetings between the two rivals.

Key players

While Tottenham have struggled for form in recent matches, Dominic Solanke has still impressed in the centre forward position, finding the back of the net in his most recent outing against Newcastle United on Saturday.

Dejan Kulusevski has also been a shining light for Spurs as a creative force in the final third. The Swede, along with Solanke, will be the biggest threat to the Liverpool defence on Wednesday night.

Son Heung-min could come into the lineup after starting on the bench against Newcastle with Brennan Johnson on the right side Rodrigo Bentancur and Yves Bissouma in the central midfield unit.

Slot could rest some key players after a gruelling winter period, but Liverpool’s squad depth will see them still field a strong side that might include Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez in attack.

Conor Bradley is in line to start at right back and could steady Liverpool’s defence after a shaky performance by Trent Alexander-Arnold against Manchester United. Caoimhin Kelleher could start in goal.

Team news

Tottenham are still suffering something of an injury crisis with seven first team figures expected to be sidelined for the visit of Liverpool with a further two doubtful.

Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven’s absence in central defence has been keenly felt in recent weeks with Destiny Udogie also sidelined through injury. Radu Drăgușin could similarly miss out after coming off at half time of Saturday’s match against Newcastle due to illness.

Fraser Forster could return to the lineup after missing Tottenham’s last match through that same sickness bug, although Brandon Austin’s impressive display against Newcastle may see him keep his place in goal.

James Maddison and Pape Sarr are both suspended and while Richarlison is back in training, Tuesday’s match will surely come too early for the Brazilian forward.

Joe Gomez is still out injured for Liverpool with Dominik Szoboszlai a doubt after missing the 2-2 draw against Manchester United on Sunday.

Prediction

With the importance of balancing this first leg tie with ongoing Premier League commitments, we’re expecting a score draw that’ll leave everything to play for in next month’s second leg at Anfield: Tottenham 2-2 Liverpool

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Carabao Cup with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Premier League Team of the Week: Matchday 20

The first weekend of 2025 is now in the history books. With it, is a number of surprise results from across the Premier League. Struggling teams like Manchester United and Crystal Palace took points off of title chasing Liverpool and Chelsea. Arsenal were held by Brighton while Manchester City scored four goals for the first time since August in the English top-flight.

By Sam McGuire

So we know what happened. However, we don’t know who made the FotMob Team of the Week or why they made the XI. Read on to find out.

Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford

Pickford was on the losing side this weekend as Everton fell to defeat against Bournemouth. However, he didn’t deserve to be. The 30-year-old earned himself an 8.8 rating for his showing at the Vitality Stadium. He made seven saves and faced shots with an Expected Goals On Target value of 3.02. He conceded just one goal though, late on in the second half as the hosts ramped up the pressure. Without him between the sticks, it could’ve been a battering for the Toffees.

Right-Back: Matty Cash

Cash helped Aston Villa return to winning ways against Leicester City. The right-back earned a FotMob rating of 8.1 for his showing at Villa Park against the Foxes. He completed 89% of his passes, carved out two chances and attempted four dribbles in what was a impressive display. The 27-year-old won six of his seven tackles, made three ball recoveries and won 11 of his 16 duels.

Centre-Back: Dean Huijsen

Huijsen is, of course, making his weekly appearance in the Team of the Week. He’s been a regular in the XI over the past month and his performances are consistently impressive for a Bournemouth team on an eight-game unbeaten run following their 1-0 win over Everton last weekend. The youngster didn’t score this time out but he still put in a solid showing, completing 84% of his passes, winning 100% of his tackles and winning five of his eight duels. He also made nine clearances as the Cherries kept their clean sheet in a win that kept them just one point behind Manchester City.

Centre-Back: Lisandro Martínez

What a time to put in arguably your best performance of the season. Martínez opted to step things up while playing away at Anfield against the Premier League leaders. He scored the opening goal with what was an unbelievable finish into the roof of the net from a ridiculous angle against one of the best goalkeepers in the world. He put in an all-action display, making four clearances, three interceptions and recovering the ball on three occasions. The Argentine also won 60% of his duels against Liverpool to earn himself an 8.3 rating.

Left-Back: Keane Lewis-Potter

The versatile Brentford player made the XI for his showing against Southampton. On the day, he was deployed at left-back and he put in quite the performance. The 23-year-old had two shots, scored one goal, created two chances and finished the game with a pass success rate of 100%. He won 50% of his tackles, 60% of his ground duels and 100% of his aerial duels as the Bees romped to victory.

Midfield: Ross Barkley

Barkley was the star man for Aston Villa in their 2-1 win over Leicester City. The 31-year-old opened the scoring for the hosts from the edge of the penalty area. His placement turned a shot with an xG value of 0.08 into one with an Expected Goals on Target value of 0.61. He picked out his spot and hit it. He also completed 98% of his passes, completed 100% of his dribbles and recovered the ball on 10 occasions. Barkley also won eight of his 10 ground duels in what was a dominant display.

Midfield: Mikkel Damsgaard

The Denmark international has found his groove in more of a central midfield role as of late. The 24-year-old claimed an assist in the hammering of Southampton. He created five chances on the day, attempted three dribbles and was involved in nine duels. Damsgaard put himself about and had a huge impact on the game for the Bees.

Midfield: Bruno Fernandes

There had been some concerns over whether Fernandes was the right man to lead this Manchester United team after a few erratic performances this season. He emphatically answered them against Liverpool on Sunday with an eye-catching display. He left Anfield with an assist having created four chances for the Red Devils. The skipper completed 100% of his dribbles, regained possession eight times and won 82% of his ground duels and 100% of his aerial duels. He stepped up when Rúben Amorim needed him most.

Attack: Bryan Mbeumo

The Brentford forward is having the most productive season of his career and we’re only just into January. He netted twice against Southampton to take his haul for the season to 13. He also claimed an assist to take his haul to 16 goal involvements in 20 starts for the Bees. Only Erling Haaland (16) and Mohamed Salah (18) have more goals than the versatile forward. How showing against the Saints, a game in which he created five chances, earned him a FotMob rating of 9.5. He was also switched on defensively too, winning two of his three tackles and five of his eight ground duels.

*Mbeumo shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Attack: Erling Haaland

Haaland was back amongst the goals as Manchester City racked up a 4-1 win over West Ham. The No. 9 wasn’t heavily involved, attempting just two shots and 17 passes, but he netted twice and racked up an xG haul of 0.95. The City forward also won three of his four duels to highly the duality of his game these days under Pep Guardiola.

Attack: Raúl Jiménez

Jiménez continued his fine form this season, scoring twice for Fulham in the 2-2 draw with Ipswich Town. The Mexico international kept his cool from the spot on two occasions to level for the Cottagers as he took his tally to eight for the campaign.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Arsenal and Newcastle’s Carabao Cup semi-final, first leg

Arsenal and Newcastle United meet in the first of the EFL Cup semi-finals, but which of these two clubs needs a trophy more, and who might want to remain focussed on the League instead?

By Ian King

Two forms sides

Both teams come into this match in rich veins of form. Following their 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday, Arsenal are now ten games unbeaten and with their title chase back on. Newcastle, meanwhile, made slightly harder work of beating Spurs than had been expected at the weekend, but have now won their last five in a row in the league. Arsenal have beaten Bolton, Preston and Crystal Palace to get this far, while Newcastle, who entered a round earlier, have already beaten Nottingham Forest, Wimbledon, Chelsea and Brentford. On paper there’s not much between these two.

History

Newcastle have won three of their last four home matches against Arsenal, but the bigger issue comes when they’ve had to travel south. They haven’t beaten them away since 2010, and furthermore Arsenal have won all three of their previous meetings in the EFL Cup. You have to go back almost 73 years to the 1952 FA Cup final for Newcastle’s last win against Arsenal in any cup competition.

A chance to rotate?

With this being the Carabao we can probably expect changes from both Mikel Arteta and Eddie Howe, but that opens the door to the question of who wants it more. Newcastle haven’t won a major trophy since – depending on whether you consider the former of these to be ‘major’ – the 1969 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup or the 1955 FA Cup. Arsenal haven’t won anything since the 2020 FA Cup. So the greater question here is probably who’ll take a greater interest in trying to end their dry spell in this competition.

Team News

Bukayo Saka (hamstring), Raheem Sterling (knee), Ben White (knee) and Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) are all missing for Arsenal, while Kai Havertz has been getting over an illness and may not be available, and there are doubts over Ethan Nwaneri following his early withdrawal at Brighton. Jurrien Timber returns from suspension.

Fabian Schär and Bruno Guimarães are both suspended for Newcastle, while Nick Pope (knee), Callum Wilson (thigh) and Jamaal Lascelles (knee) all remain injured. Lloyd Kelly, Sean Longstaff or Joe Willock could be drafted in. But as ever with the Carabao Cup, expect changes from the weekend.

Prediction

So, how important is this match to these two teams, then? For Newcastle, this year marks the 70th anniversary of their last major domestic trophy; so long ago that the competition they’re playing in tonight didn’t even exist at that time. For Arsenal, with the Champions League, the FA Cup and the Premier League still to play for, it may be a slightly lower priority. With Newcastle’s strong recent defensive record, it might be time for them to take something from a trip to Arsenal for the first time in years. With that, I’m going for a 1-1 draw, leaving all to play for at St James’ Park in the second leg (being played 5 Feb).

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Carabao Cup with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Real Madrid face minnows in the Copa Del Rey

David and Goliath, giant-killing exploits…domestic cup matches are all about the possibility, the opportunity and at times, the inevitably one-sided – and Real Madrid travelling to tiny Deportiva Minera fits that bill precisely.

By Karl Matchett

Madrid’s patchy record in the Copa

Carlo Ancelotti is used to fighting for major honours, the biggest pieces of silverware in the game. This year once more he’ll be expecting to go the distance in Europe and retain top spot in LaLiga, with Real Madrid a force domestically and abroad. But in the Copa del Rey, they’ve triumphed just once in the past decade. Weakened teams, priorities elsewhere and an opponent potentially facing the game of their lives can all mix to become a real banana skin for the top sides in the country.

Ancelotti with little reason to take risks

Minera ply their trade in Cartagena, a port city on Spain’s southeast coast in the region of Murcia. With a stadium holding around 2000 and a team which has just been promoted to the Segunda Federacion – that’s the fourth tier of Spanish football, where the group teams are allocated to play in are based on geographical location – this isn’t so much David against Goliath, more like David’s pet dog against a giant. Minera are tiny: they were in the seventh tier in 1980, haven’t been higher than the third tier ever and are eighth in their table, hardly among the mightiest even at their own respective status.

Even with alterations, rotations, youngsters getting a chance and those out of favour being handed minutes in the team, Ancelotti must surely feel his side will have too much, technically and physically, for a team who have never played even near the level of Los Blancos. Given they faced Valencia three days before and Mallorca in the Supercopa – with the travel that involves – three days later, there’s even less reason to suspect Ancelotti will go anywhere near full strength.

Recent form

Real went unbeaten in four in league and Champions League before Christmas, and reclaimed top spot in LaLiga following the dramatic victory over Valencia, on Friday, in their first match of the new year. By contrast, Minera’s only win in the last five was a penalty shootout success in the Copa – against another LaLiga side in Alavés, following a 2-2 draw.

Team news

Real Madrid continue to be without Dani Carvajal, David Alaba and Éder Militão for the long haul. The likes of Jude Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé will surely all be rested after featuring against Valencia, but seniors such as Andrii Lunin, Dani Ceballos and Endrick might get rare starts. Minera’s best-known player – relative term here, perhaps – is likely Arturo Rodríguez, who spent a brief period with Dundee several years ago after playing at Cordoba.

Key player

As an international of some pedigree already, if Arda Güler is given the nod to start he’s an obvious star who will be leagues beyond anything Minera have seen or can cope with. Even he might not play in truth, depending on how Ancelotti manages players’ minutes, but in 600 LaLiga minutes only, he’s averaging 1.25 shots per 90, 2.67 chances created and 74 touches of the ball.

Prediction

No #Cupset this time around – Real Madrid’s much-changed side should pick up a win by several goals: Minera 1-4 Madrid.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Jan

2025

Preview: Inter meet AC Milan in the Supercoppa

The first trophy of the 2024/25 Italian football season will go to one of the Milan clubs as they will face off in the final of the Supercoppa in Saudi Arabia.

By Neel Shelat

Both sides looking to match rivals’ successes

Inter and Milan are two of the most successful clubs in Italian football, so it should be no surprise that they have some of the biggest trophy hauls in the Supercoppa Italiana.

Inter’s recent record as three-time defending champions has taken their tally up to eight, just one off record champions Juventus. Milan are close behind them with seven, so they will be looking to restore parity with their city rivals in this respect.

A reunion in Saudi Arabia

Despite their previous success, Inter and Milan have only met twice in the Supercoppa. Their first clash was in 2011 when goals from Zlatan Ibrahimović and Kevin-Prince Boateng won Milan the trophy in Beijing, while Inter eventually got their revenge a couple of years ago in Riyadh.

That match kicked off a streak of victories in the Derby della Madonnina for the Nerazzurri, who had the chance to set a head-to-head record of seven straight wins earlier this season. However, it was Milan who scored a late winner to mark one of the few highlights of Paulo Fonseca’s tenure in charge of the club.

Sérgio Conceição’s chance to make an instant impact

Milan hired Sérgio Conceição just a few days before the Supercoppa, tasking him with staging a turnaround after a pretty disappointing first half of the season. His contract reportedly includes a unilateral termination clause that the club can exercise at the end of the campaign, so the pressure is on him to convince them of his suitability for the job. Silverware of any form will go a long way for his case, so the Supercoppa will surely mean something to him.

The Portuguese tactician will have to pull off something pretty special if his side are to defeat the defending champions in the midst of a period of subpar performances. A run of just one win in four Serie A fixtures across December cost Fonseca his job, after which Milan’s Supercoppa semi-final win against Juventus came about thanks to a cheap penalty and freak own goal rather than an overly convincing display. With injury doubts surrounding four attackers including Rafael Leão and Samuel Chukwueze, Conceição will also have to fashion a makeshift front line for this match.

Inter firm favourites

Among many things, the form book favours the defending champions. Inter have won 13 of their last 14 domestic fixtures, including the Supercoppa opener against Serie A title rivals Atalanta.

Simone Inzaghi’s side have certainly looked quite close to their very best in recent months, showcasing exceptional attacking play with slick passing and perfectly executed positional rotations. They are the top scorers in Serie A this season with 45 goals in 17 games, so they should have more than enough firepower to contend with the potential absence of top-scorer Marcus Thuram in this match. The Nerazzurri also are on a run of five consecutive clean sheets, so their defence will be a tough nut to crack.

Prediction

While Milan’s players continue to familiarise themselves with Conceição’s tactics, Inter should be backed to get a resounding victory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow the Supercoppa final and every game back in Serie A live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Old rivals clash in the Premier League as Liverpool face Man United

Manchester United travel to Anfield on Sunday to take on the rampant Premier League leaders Liverpool.

By Sam McGuire

If form played a part in this fixture, it would very much be a case of David versus Goliath as these old rivals meet for the second time this season. However, we know that form counts for very little when the Red Devils take on the Reds.

The season so far

Liverpool are riding high at the top of the Premier League with 14 wins from 18 matches. Their only defeat in any competition this season arrived back in September. Since then, the Reds have been almost flawless under new manager Arne Slot.

Following back-to-back draws with Newcastle United and Fulham, Liverpool have won three on the bounce in the Premier League and have scored 14 goals in the process. Ahead of Saturday’s fixtures, the Merseyside club had a six point advantage at the top of the table with a game in hand (the postponed Merseyside derby) over nearest rivals Arsenal.

They have the player of the season at their disposal in Mohamed Salah. The 32-year-old has racked up 30 goal involvements in his 18 appearances and have either scored or assisted in 11 successive English top-flight matches. He is the form player, not just in the league but perhaps in the world.

The supporting cast are pulling their weight too with Cody Gakpo and Luis Díaz being amongst the goals recently.

The Reds top the charts for goals scored (2.5) per game and have conceded the joint-fewest (0.9 per game). They’ve kept the joint-most clean sheets (eight) and have carved out the most big chances (81). Slot’s side have been the best in the Premier League and deserve their place at the summit.

Manchester United, meanwhile, have had a season to forget. Erik Ten Hag was dismissed earlier in the campaign and was replaced by Rúben Amorim. The Portuguese tactician guided his new club to a 2-1 win over Manchester City recently but that is their only win in their last six Premier League matches. They’ve lost the other five.

They find themselves in 14th position and are without a clean sheet since the 4-0 win over Everton on December 1st. The Red Devils are averaging just 1.1 goals per 90 and are conceding 1.4 goals. Their underlying numbers are just as worrying, with an expected goals total of 26.9. For context, Liverpool’s xG this term is 42, and United have played a game more.

Arguably the most enlightening stat to highlight the incredible gap between these two sides this term is that Liverpool have missed (47) almost as many big chances as United have carved out (48).

Previous encounters

Liverpool won the first clash of the season between these two teams at Old Trafford. A Salah-inspired showing earned the Reds a 3-0 win. Things have changed since then though. There’s a new man in the dugout for the Red Devils and the pressure isn’t on him to beat Liverpool at Anfield. They’re going to want to frustrate the hosts and dent their title challenge. A draw would go a long way here for Amorim and United. Ten Hag, meanwhile, had to have a go at Liverpool in August.

The dynamic is different. The pressure is on the Reds so it will be interesting to see how they break down a United side who will want to soak up pressure. It was the same tactic deployed by the Red Devils last season as they went unbeaten against Liverpool and knocked them out of the FA Cup. Again, though, it was different. That was Jürgen Klopp versus Ten Hag. This is Slot versus Amorim.

The injury situation

Liverpool are without centre-back duo Joe Gomez and Ibrahima Konaté for the clash while Conor Bradley is still ruled out following an injury he sustained against Real Madrid in November. The Reds are also without the suspended Dominik Szoboszlai after he picked up a fifth booking of the season in a brief cameo against West Ham United.

United are expected to be without Luke Shaw, Victor Lindelof and Mason Mount for the visit to Anfield. Bruno Fernandes is set to return to the starting XI having missed the defeat to Newcastle United following his red card against Wolves.

On paper, Liverpool are missing two starters while United will be without one.

Prediction

It has to be a Liverpool win, doesn’t it? If they are serious about winning the title, this has to be three points on Sunday. They need to be breezing past struggling sides like United. We’re go with a 3-1 win for the Reds.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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