At the very summit of the Premier League, the air is becoming increasingly rarefied. Arsenal cling onto top place by their fingernails, but every time they glance over their shoulders, there in the distance is the lumbering silhouette of Manchester City, relentlessly and mercilessly lumbering towards them.
By Ian King
And some way behind them are Spurs, trying to cough and splutter their way to a Champions League place that it barely feels would have been merited by the tail-off to a season which had begun more promisingly than most had expected.
The mathematics of it are fairly straightforward. A Manchester City win puts them two clear of Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table with one to play. A Spurs win leaves everybody where they are, with a small upward nudge for Arsenal’s goal difference and Pep Guardiola needing a hand from Sean Dyche – Everton would have to take something from The Emirates Stadium for City to have any chance whatsoever of lifting the title on Sunday.
A draw at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would probably be the most fascinating result of all from the perspective of the title chase itself. It would leave Arsenal top on goal difference so, with Arsenal playing Everton and Manchester City playing West Ham, there would be a straightforward goal chase for the title, with City needing to win by three goals more than Arsenal to sneak it at the very last.
Meanwhile, there is something fundamentally Tottenham-esque about Spurs’ season coming down to a match that they can’t win. This all might have been rendered irrelevant had Aston Villa beaten Liverpool at Villa Park on Tuesday night, but they didn’t. That 3-3 draw leaves Villa needing a draw at in-form Crystal Palace on Sunday to get fourth, unless Spurs can put eight past Sheffield United.
Spurs have been playing their last dozen matches of the season looking as though they’d rather already be on their summer holidays. The great Arsenal debate has, to a point, served as a useful diversion from some pretty wretched football. Their 2-1 win against Burnley last Saturday was punctuated by the same sort of strangely stodgy yet skittish fare that had been so ruthlessly punished by their previous four opponents. Questions have been asked about whether they can really run on vibes alone. Rebuilding work is required.
And of course, the argument over whether Spurs should beat Manchester City or not overlooks a couple of key questions, the most relevant of which is probably whether they can. City arrive in North London having won seven in a row since their goalless draw with Arsenal at the end of March. They’ve only dropped six points from the 21 Premier League games that they’ve played since their last Premier League defeat, at Aston Villa on the 6th December, a little over five months ago.
Over the course of those seven straight wins they’ve scored 28 goals; only once scoring less than their average of four per game over this run, a 2-0 win at Brighton. When people talk about Manchester City clicking into that mindset that makes them appear like a gold-plated steamroller, this is precisely what they mean.
Spurs don’t even have the comfort of holding a hex over them any more. City have won their last two matches against them now, which included a first win against them at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in knocking them out of the FA Cup in January.
Against Wolves the Saturday before last, their Vigo the Carpathian-Terminator crossbreed Erling Haaland scored four times and still found the time to get in a huff with Pep when he was hauled off, presumably to allow his batteries to recharge ahead of the trying couple of weeks ahead.
On top of all this in the Premier League, City also have an FA Cup Final to prepare for against Manchester United, not that you’d realise from the amount of sweat they haven’t been expending in their matches over the last few weeks. And that, perhaps, is the key to their title run-in. That serenity, that easy glide towards another league title, has become something of a trademark.
When you stop to consider the chaotic way in which their first title of this oil-gilded era was won, in 2012, the contrast is massive. It’s possible that there will be some degree of drama this weekend, regardless of tonight’s result in North London. The broadcasters will certainly present it that way. But it’s difficult to imagine the same sort of reaction that greeted Agueroooooo’s winning goal against Queen’s Park Rangers twelve years ago.
Even two years ago, with the press hollering themselves hoarse with excitement over the conclusion of the race between City and Liverpool, even when City went 2-0 down at home to Aston Villa with twenty minutes of the season left to play and the door was nudged just open… they closed it again with ruthless efficiency. Three goals in six minutes, and that was that. Had you forgotten that had happened too?
Therein lies the key to Manchester City. Moving machine parts can be beautiful to watch, and there’s a simple elegance to the way that City play as a team that can be beguiling to watch at times. But they’re still a machine, and even the best-running of machines can malfunction. That this is the case remains Arsenal’s best chance of winning the Premier League, for now.
(Images from IMAGO)
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