Three goals down from the first leg, the reigning European champions have a whole lot of work to do if they are to continue their recent continental dominance – though their situation is not without precedence.
By Karl Matchett
Spanish sides know the feeling
Not that Real Madrid often want to take inspiration from the likes of their biggest rivals Barcelona, but they are one of the few teams to have been involved in this type of comeback before; from an even worse situation in fact, the famous remontada comeback, beating PSG 6-1 after losing 4-0 in the first leg. Real are only 3-0 down here by comparison, though Barcelona have experienced that scoreline too, in reverse: they lost 4-0 to Liverpool in 2019 are being three up from the first leg, and a year earlier gave up a 4-1 lead to go out on away goals at Roma. Plenty for Madrid to realise, then, that big leads can work both ways – and of course Los Blancos have their own history of comebacks to point to as evidence that the tie isn’t all over just yet.
All or nothing for Arsenal
The Gunners could scarcely have dreamed of being in a better position after the first leg, but it also reinforces the fact all their eggs for this season are in a Champions League-shaped basket. While Real have a Copa del Rey final and a LaLiga title battle to contend with, it’s just this competition for Mikel Arteta’s men. Another weekend draw leaves them 13 points off the pace in the Premier League – it’s European glory or another empty-handed year therefore. The path ahead is still tough, with PSG likely semi-final opponents, but there’s no use being concerned about one tough challenge when, too often, they’ve shown themselves capable of collapsing when the pressure is really on. With this three-goal cushion, they have to start to show they can shed that tag at last.
Recent form
Not stellar from either side in truth, but Arsenal are unbeaten in nine – five draws in that time – and haven’t lost a game by three or more all season long. That’s all they have to do, with the pressure very much on the hosts. Real won at the weekend despite a Kylian Mbappé red card, but that was their first win in four. At home this season they’ve won by three or more on eight occasions.
Team news
Eduardo Camavinga is suspended and the same names are out long term for Madrid – Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy. For Arsenal, centre-back Gabriel is out for the season and Kai Havertz is out until at least May. Jurrien Timber might have to start right-back as Thomas Partey went off injured at the weekend and midfielder Jorginho is a doubt too.
Key player
David Raya has been largely impressive for the Gunners this season, not just with shot-stopping but also his concentration and ability to sweep through balls. His 82% save rate is third-highest in the Champions League, but 3.9 goals prevented is top. Arsenal may need that form.
Prediction
Real to win the night, but Arsenal to win the tie. That third goal may prove all-important: Madrid 3-1 Arsenal
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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