A place in the first Cup final of the season is up for grabs and, improbably, it’s Newcastle United who hold a serious upper hand to get there – but Arsenal couldn’t have had a bigger pre-match boost as they look for a second-leg overhaul here.
By Karl Matchett
Big ask, big reward
The Magpies took a 2-0 win from the Emirates a month ago and Eddie Howe has fans dreaming of, finally, ending the long wait for a significant trophy: the 1955 FA Cup final, still the last time they won a major honour. They have, remember, never won the EFL Cup. This is the opportunity of a generation for them to have a crack at it, and all they need to do…is not concede two against the team who have just put five past Manchester City.
Change in flow at a tricky time?
Newcastle will rightly point to their own in-form forward, Alexander Isak. His goal in the first leg came at a time when he also netted in eight Premier League games in a row – 11 goals in that period – but, since then, he had one shot and failed to score against Bournemouth, netted twice against bottom club Southampton, then had one shot again and didn’t score against Fulham. No run of form can go on without end, but Newcastle will hope the chance creation and clinical edge isn’t drying up at a hugely important time.
Recent form
As for Arsenal, they had 23 shots and didn’t score in that first leg, then had 26 shots, scored once and went out in the FA Cup in their next match. Since then it’s 15 goals in six games and they’ve won five of them. The Gunners don’t just have some winning rhythm again, they have enormously growing confidence, particularly after battering the champions in such emphatic fashion. Newcastle had won nine in a row before the recent loss-win-loss run, but perhaps that pendulum has just swung away from them ahead of this second leg.
Team news
Harvey Barnes and Callum Wilson are the squad options missing at St. James’ Park, but Joelinton remains a doubt. Bruno Guimarães is back from a ban and will start. For Arsenal, it’s the same faces as recently who are long-term absentees: Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and Ben White. Neto is unavailable to play.
Key player
Obviously, Arsenal need goals to find a way back into the tie. But if they concede, that might be game over. Goalkeeper David Raya is third in the Premier League for clean sheets (eight), fourth for save percentage (72.8%) and top for lowest goals conceded per 90 (0.9). However, he’s also 13th for goals prevented; with -0.1, his value shows he basically concedes as many goals as you’d expect him to from the shots he faces – by number rather than the actual reflex stops we’ve all seen highlights of. The Spaniard has had a good season in terms of occasional sensational impact, but here Arsenal need him to excel.
Prediction
Arsenal to find a route back into the match and pick up a win by two goals…From there, pick your own winner from the ensuing penalty shootout!
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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