LaLiga returns this weekend after a lengthy international break, and Celta Vigo host Barcelona in what is a meeting of one of the league’s biggest xG underperformers against the biggest overperformer – and more relevantly, the league leader.
By Karl Matchett
Celta languish in 11th, three points fewer on the board than the underlying numbers suggest they should have – only Getafe, with a whopping ten fewer, have fared worse in that regard. But Barcelona are not just tough opponents this term, they are one of those who Celta struggle with constantly. They’ve won just twice in nine attempts in the post-pandemic era, or once in the post-Messi era. One was courtesy of a last-minute winner after a Barcelona red card, highlighting the infrequency with which points are accrued in this clash. Can they hope to change that this time?
Barca looking to get over their most recent blip
It was seven straight wins in all competitions for Hansi Flick’s Barcelona before the international break – until they went to Real Sociedad and lost. Plenty of possession but zero penetration was a shock turnaround for the table toppers, who have been largely excellent in the final third but offered little to trouble Álex Remiro in La Real’s goal. An improvement on that is needed, but is also usually present, and all teams in rebuild mode have off-days. Outside of the odd shocker, they’ve been a well-oiled machine this term. Celta’s own form is something of a mirror: one win in six to almost the end of October, but unbeaten in three since then including a draw at Betis last time. It’s also worth noting only Atlético and Real Madrid have won at Balaidos this term.
Clean bill of health for Celta, not so much for Barca
Celta are, impressively, clear. It’s a full squad to choose from for Claudio Giráldez, which may just mean an unchanged lineup from the win over Getafe. For Barcelona, there remain a host of absentees for the long haul, including Marc-André ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen, Ansu Fati and Marc Bernal. In addition, Ferran Torres remains a doubt, Lamine Yamal could miss out with ankle trouble and Ronald Araújo will be eased back in after another hamstring injury.
Key players
Celta will be focused on trying to tighten up defensively, perhaps inspired by La Real shutting Barcelona out prior to the break. For Barcelona, that therefore means Raphinha – a massively improved and creative force for them this term – will be key to finding a way to break them down. An xG per 90 of 0.58, 14 big chances created in league play, 13 goals or assists so far this term and even the Barcelona captaincy on occasions shows just how much he’s thriving under Flick. Wherever he has played in that attacking supply line behind top scorer Robert Lewandowski, the Brazilian is finding a way to shine. Even in a low-key outing in the defeat to Sociedad, no Barcelona attacker had more touches in the box, created chances or completed dribbles than Raphinha.
Prediction
Barcelona could reasonably be seen as being on the cusp of getting even stronger, with a few important returns from injury of late. Another three points for Flick’s side – 2-1 to Barca.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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