After entering the November international break with three wins in four matches, Leganés will be looking to build on their momentum with a win against the reigning Spanish and European champions.
By Zach Lowy
Goals Galore in Butarque
Whilst the other two promoted sides Espanyol and Real Valladolid occupy the relegation zone, Leganés currently sit 14th (at the time of writing) – four points clear of the drop – despite their -3 goal differential. Four of the Pepineros’ last five matches have featured at least 2.5 goals, but as for their opponents, Real Madrid are scoring just over two goals per game, and there’s reason to believe they will be able to put the pedal to the metal and wreak havoc against a Leganés defence that has conceded three goals to Atlético Madrid, four to Girona, and two to Athletic Club this season.
Real Madrid and Leganés haven’t faced off since 2019/20, when Los Blancos won 5-0 at home before drawing 2-2 at the Estadio Municipal Butarque. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have also shown a recent tendency for high-scoring matches: after closing out October with a win at Celta Vigo, a 5-2 win vs. Dortmund, and a 4-0 defeat to Barcelona, Real fell to a second-straight home defeat, losing 3-1 to Milan, before bouncing back with a 4-0 victory against Osasuna. We’re backing this to be a high-scoring affair in Leganés.
Vinícius to Produce the Goods
At 24 years old, Vinícius Júnior continues to demonstrate why he is one of the best players in world football, and we’re expecting him to slice open the Cucumbers’ defense and continue his red-hot scoring form. Vinícius has grabbed a goal contribution in seven of his last eight league matches, and with the exception of the Clásico defeat, he’s scored in every single match for Real Madrid since the start of October – nine goals, precisely. Only Robert Lewandowski (14) has more goals in LaLiga, whilst only Lewandowski (16) and Raphinha (13) have more goal contributions.
Since missing out on the Ballon d’Or to Rodri, Vinícius has responded with a vengeance, scoring a penalty vs. Milan before bagging a hat-trick in their demolition of Osasuna. Whilst he was kept quiet in both of Brazil’s recent 1-1 draws, there’s reason to believe that he’ll revert to the norm on Sunday vs. Leganés.
Can Real Take Care of Business?
Real Madrid have already lost more matches since the start of October (3) than they did in the entirety of last season (2), but they’re still just six points behind league leaders Barcelona with a game in hand. And whilst they’ll be keeping one eye on their midweek trip to Anfield, there’s no doubt that Los Blancos will be going out all guns blazing as they look to keep the pressure on the Blaugranas.
Prediction
Despite missing various key figures in defence like Éder Militão, Dani Carvajal and David Alaba, the champions should be capable of holding firm against a Leganés side who have the second-lowest Expected goals (9.5) in LaLiga after bottom-dwellers Valencia (7.9) – we’re backing Real to come away with what should be a fairly high-scoring victory in the Butarque.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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