Champions League football secured last year, a home match offering the chance to go above Manchester City this year…
By Karl Matchett
In theory that’s magic progression for Aston Villa under Unai Emery, but as ever, context is king: Villa have fallen away from last year’s consistency, won only three of their last 12 in all competitions and have won only half of their home league games this term. And yet, improbably, that’s far better than the champions are faring right now.
In the same stretch of a dozen matches, Pep Guardiola’s side have won only twice. Yet a dozen games precisely reaches back to the start of their recent malaise: a 1-0 home win over bottom club Southampton was 12 games ago, and since then it’s a single win in 11. Home or away, domestic or Europe, Guardiola is going through a spell he never has before as a coach, and certainly this group of players haven’t either.
Heading into the match there’s one more potential item of context to note: almost a full week of training ground time for Man City since their last defeat, that late one to local rivals Man United, which is a first full week of tactical and organisational work Guardiola has been able to do since mid-August. The downside of that is, Villa have also had a full week to prepare.
Form
Narrowing the lens to more recent matches, Villa broke their winless streak by claiming three victories on the bounce against Brentford, Southampton and Leipzig. None are outstanding results but should certainly have boosted confidence, before Nottingham Forest ruined the rebuild with two late goals a week ago. For City, the same team proved a false dawn: they finally picked up a first win in eight against Forest and most expected them to simply pick up again; instead they drew at Palace, lost at Juventus and were utterly shocked by United last week. Confidence will have been at rock bottom right then – how much can it change in six days?
Team news
Jacob Ramsey is the only definite absentee for the hosts, but Leon Bailey is also a doubt. Tyrone Mings could miss the game too but wouldn’t start anyway. For Man City, it’s just the same long-term absentees as has been the case of late: Rodri, Oscar Bobb, Manuel Akanji and now Nathan Aké. John Stones is back though and probably starts.
Key player?
This match hosts the players with the best goals per 90 rate (Jhon Durán) and the best xG (Erling Haaland) but surely victory comes from which defence stands firm for once, after so many errors. No team has missed more big chances (37) than Villa in the league this term, with Ollie Watkins (15) the prime culprit. We’ll make Joško Gvardiol the one to watch as he has most interceptions and tackles per 90 of any City defender, but also has impact going forward.
Prediction
An error-fest of two teams desperate for wins but riddled with anxiety, and in the end, nobody wins: Villa 2-2 Man City!
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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