One team strong all season and looking to confirm a Champions League place, one team underperforming, looking short of direction and in need of something of a summer overhaul. Rewind the clock six months and not many would have guessed which of these two teams applied to each.
By Karl Matchett
It’s hard not to be super impressed with what Nottingham Forest have achieved this season. Nuno Espírito Santo has a couple of tactical variations, and the team plays well in both. They’re middle of the road when it comes to scoring goals, but have a clinical, in-form striker playing better than he ever has before. They’re top four defensively, and top three in points terms.
Nuno’s miracle makers
There might only be one place and one point separating themselves and Saturday opponents Manchester City, but there is a gulf between the relative expectations and reality that the clubs have achieved this season. Only last term, Forest were battling relegation, a points deduction and financial uncertainty due to PSR. They had spent two years scattergun buying players, had parted ways with the manager who brought them up and seemed to have plenty of potential, but a lack of consistency.
That’s all changed, with Nuno overcoming a stuttering start to enjoy a brilliant middle third of the season at the City Ground. Now it’s about seeing the job through and the real gap which matters to the Reds is the one down to sixth – currently a buffer of four points. Even if Man City go on to overtake them, staying ahead of one of Chelsea or Newcastle should yield a Champions League place next year.
As for City themselves, there’s nothing left to play for beyond an FA Cup and ensuring they are in the top competition themselves in 2025/26. That isn’t a certainty, even if they should have the firepower to beat enough middling teams in the last 11 matches to stay ahead of two of the aforementioned sides themselves.
Recent form
Forest have only won one of their last four, and that was both in the cup and on penalties. Don’t make the mistake of translating that to poor performances though; they were very good in the second half against Newcastle and lost because of a dismal first 45 minutes defensively, before holding Arsenal to a draw with a typically resilient showing. On home soil, they’re unbeaten since 10 November. Man City have won four and lost four of their last eight. Obviously they are good enough to beat teams, but equally they are fragile enough to keep suffering setbacks when the going gets tough.
Team news
No key players are missing for Forest, while City remain without Rodri, John Stones, Manuel Akanji and now Nathan Aké.
Key players
Erling Haaland has 20 goals from an xG of 19.8, Chris Wood has 18 from just 10.6. They both hit 59 per cent of shots on target and while the Norwegian’s conversion rate is 20%, the New Zealander’s is 37%. In other words, Woods is way more clinical – but Haaland shoots a lot more.
Prediction
No real reason to suspect Forest will crumble, so another creditable draw could be on the cards: Forest 1-1 City.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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