From the quartet of nations in Group E, the least-expected winners would have been not the third-highest ranked country by Fifa, not the team who reached the quarter-finals at the last edition of the Euros and not a nation who have qualified for three straight European Championships.
By Karl Matchett
No, instead the least-fancied of the four would have been one which was not at Euro 2020, which has not been at a World Cup since 1998 and in fact did not have a win at a major men’s tournament to their name in a quarter of a century. That nation is Romania, and yet that same nation finished first.
To be sure, it was a strange group all around. It’s not often they all finish with identical records in points terms, meaning Romania’s first outing – a 3-0 win over Ukraine – proved pivotal in goals scored, just as much as their final meeting ending in a draw would always mean both nations in that game would progress.
But it sure upset the expectations and revamped the look of the knockout phase, with Belgium having been expected to be on that side of the draw – now instead of the world No.3, it’s the world No.47.
But that’s only half the truth of this fixture’s surprise. Netherlands were supposed to be competitive themselves. Second place was meant to be theirs in Group D, which would also have pitted them in the top half of the draw – instead it was third and this sudden opportunity to progress through the finals sits before them…if they can improve significantly.
Because the Dutch have not, thus far, been impressive. There have been spells of excellence, individuals who have shone, but as a cohesive unit they have underperformed and failed to really signify they are a team who can compete. In part that’s unsurprising – the loss of an entire midfield isn’t ideal tournament preparation. But Ronald Koeman hasn’t yet found the right combination in the replacements for Frenkie de Jong et al, with Joey Veerman in particular looking all at sea.
Cody Gakpo and occasionally Xavi Simons have been the attacking standouts, but not to the level that they have been clearly better than their last-16 opponents.
Netherlands have a combined xG to this point of 3.7, to Romania’s 3.3. They are 16th and 18th respectively in that regard at Euro 2024. While they both have scored four, Netherlands have missed six of their eight big chances created. For Romania, it’s two of four.
They will dominate, they will have the ball, they will pin Romania back…but how they deal in transitions and counter-attacks, a failing of the Oranje so far, will determine who reaches the last eight.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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