If Germany, England, Portugal and France are the major favourites, then of all the outsiders to win Euro 2024, Spain might just have the best case.
By Karl Matchett
But Spain will need a little fortune, some bold decisions…and probably Álvaro Morata to bring his shooting boots on a regular basis. No immediate conclusion on which of those are most likely.
Despite missing the likes of Gavi from the squad, the technical ability of this La Roja side is unquestionable; in Rodri and Pedri they have two-thirds of perhaps a most perfect possible midfield, they have pace and depth in wide forward areas and three players who have just won the Champions League.
Even so, Luis de la Fuente might be forgiven for feeling his defensive options are a little below that of other major rivals, with Aymeric Laporte now playing in Saudi Arabia and Robin Le Normand serviceable, but unlikely to be considered a great any time soon.
That may not be such an issue if Spain can get the balance right in the middle of the park though, dominate play for long stretches, and find the right combination of their many final-third options – perhaps with Dani Olmo key to that, capable of playing as a No. 10 to shift the formation away from the regularly used 4-3-3.
Their first test will be a key one: A hugely familiar Croatia lineup, one with cohesion and experience…but also ageing legs. Indeed, Croatia and Spain played out a classic at the last Euros.
Marcelo Brozović is another plying his trade in the less-than-elite Saudi league these days, Ivan Perišić 35 years old and back in his home nation with Hadjuk Split. Luka Modrić, for all his enduring genius, is 38: he can remain a match-winner, but not if he’s chasing possession for 80 minutes of the 90.
As such, we can expect to see a first glimpse of how Spain deal with an aggressive and tenacious midfield defensively, but also one with great transition speed and ability. Mateo Kovačić, when fully fit, remains one of Europe’s kings in this regard, breaking lines with his acceleration past a challenge or two and into space, turning defence to attack in an instant.
Who finishes up on the end of those moves remains the question mark for Croatia, with Andrej Kramarić averaging a goal every 3.3 games across his long international career and no other attacking option yet managing a dozen goals for Croatia.
Perhaps it’s finally Lovro Majer’s time to shine, or maybe it’s more of the same for Croatia: looking short of the real deal at the Euros, where they’ve never been past a quarter-final.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from Euro 2024 live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.