Page 9 – The Pulse of Football

Dec

2024

Analysis: Should Chelsea be considered serious title contenders?

Chelsea’s dramatic win over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend propelled them up to second spot in the Premier League table, just four points behind Liverpool. While the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal navigate some difficulties, could the Blues be the ones to challenge the Reds for the title?

By Neel Shelat

Chelsea have had quite an eventful couple of years. Despite spending billions of Euros under new ownership, they spent the majority of the last two seasons in the bottom half of the Premier League table and barely ever got close to the top four.

Things did not look to be changing this summer either. The Blues spent close to €250 million on transfer fees alone to sign 11 players, adding to an already-bloated squad. As a result, they were forced to make some questionable sales like regular captain Conor Gallagher’s move to Atlético Madrid and also the scramble to send Raheem Sterling out on loan to Arsenal on deadline day.

They also made a coaching change in the summer, bringing in Enzo Maresca after he led Leicester City to promotion from the Championship. There were questions asked at the time about whether a coach with no prior top-flight experience would be the right person to lead such an unstable club, but he has emphatically proven the doubters wrong so far.

Chelsea are not only in the top four right now, but they are the closest challengers to Liverpool, at least as far as the table is concerned. Naturally, there has been a lot of talk of the Blues being potential title contenders this season, but they might yet have some way to go before reaching that level.

Free-flowing attack

Chelsea’s attack has unquestionably been excellent so far this season. They are the top scorers in the Premier League right now with 35 goals in 15 matches and can boast of the highest xG tally to boot.

Once again, star attacker Cole Palmer has been the key to the Blues’ success. After registering 33 goal involvements in the league last season, he is currently among the top three players in the division, both in terms of goals and assists.

Palmer thrived in a pretty free role given to him by previous head coach Mauricio Pochettino, which Maresca has looked to replicate as best as possible in his more structured system. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation on paper, Chelsea move into a 3-2-2-3 attacking structure on the ball as one full-back stays deep to form a back three, the other inverts into midfield and the wingers stay fully high and wide. Depending on which full-back advances, Palmer drifts across to the opposite side as one of two effective attacking midfielders. In that position, he has the freedom to drift around or drop back in the half-space.

The young Englishman has done an excellent job of making the most of this freedom. He likes to receive the ball in the most dangerous positions possible, from where he can utilise his excellent carrying ability to get forward before posing a multifaceted threat in and around the box. In this role, Palmer very much is the glue in Chelsea’s attack as he does an exceptional job of connecting the side and linking up with his teammates besides having the ability to make a telling impact all by himself.

Chelsea have struck a happy balance in their style of play which has helped them get the most out of Palmer and the other attackers. Although Maresca liked to control possession as far as possible at Leicester, he realised the pitfalls of going too far in this direction at Stamford Bridge. So, while his side do try to build out from the back to a large extent, their attacking approach is heavily reliant on transitions.

Interestingly, the Blues have managed to generate a lot of transitions from build-up situations. Right from goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, they do not have the best ball players at the back. This lures opponents into pressing them high up the pitch in order to try and win the ball back in dangerous positions, which is precisely what Tottenham did this weekend. Indeed, Chelsea can end up conceding some risky turnovers in their build-up, but the tradeoff is worth it since their attack can be absolutely deadly in transition.

Besides Palmer, striker Nicholas Jackson also thrives with space in behind, while wingers Pedro Neto and Noni Madueke also enjoy isolating and taking on defenders in transitional situations. It should be no surprise, then, that some of Chelsea’s very best attacking performances came in such open games.

*Chelsea vs. Brighton match details, September 2024*

On the flip side, this does mean that Chelsea may face some difficulties when opponents adapt to their approach and start defending deep instead. In fact, the Blues have had a significant majority of possession in five of the seven Premier League matches in which they have scored less than two goals, so others will surely start noticing this pattern soon.

Defensive deficiencies

Regardless of how well Chelsea’s attack fares against more disciplined defences, their defence might be the biggest holdback. In fact, they have overperformed the most in this respect relative to expected points.

*The alternative xG table, AKA ‘Justice Table’, based on xG stats*

The Blues’ defence has issues in various aspects. For one, their defensive block simply is not solid enough with weaknesses both in terms of personnel and coordination. As a result, they are nowhere near the top teams in terms of xG conceded.

Chelsea’s attacking approach also backfires to an extent in this respect, as their expansive structure in the opposition half leaves them susceptible to counterattacks. It also limits their ability to control matches with possession, making it much more difficult for them to see out a win after taking the lead. Even when the scoreline is in their favour, the best approach for the Blues remains trying to outscore their opponents. That is why they have already been involved in so many goalfests this season.

There does not appear to be a quick fix for these issues, and they may only be exacerbated if opponents manage to better stifle their attack. So, even though recent results have been quite impressive, it is perhaps too soon to consider Chelsea serious Premier League title contenders.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Misfiring Juventus meet leaky Man City

As Juventus prepare to take on Manchester City in the Champions League, on Wednesday, there is a clear feeling that these two clubs are searching for some form.

By Kaustubh Pandey

It is fitting that both Juve and City were held to draws at the weekend. Thiago Motta was sent the stands as his side just about managed to take a point from the game against his former club Bologna, as Pep Guardiola‘s Citizens picked up a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace.

Both sides have fallen away from the title races in their respective leagues too. Juve are sixth in the Serie A table, seven points away from league leading Atalanta. City are fourth in the Premier League and are eight points away from Liverpool.

The Bianconeri have eight points in the Champions League and so do City, as both of them look to enter the top eight. There is also a correlation between Motta and Guardiola, with the ex-Italy midfielder having sought inspiration from the Spaniard in the past.

It is quite apparent that both currently face problems at their respective clubs.

Juventus’ struggling attack

While Juve have the most number of cleansheets in Serie A, their attack has been very disappointing.

They have the eighth-highest xG in Serie A and they’ve registered four shots on target per game, which is the ninth-best tally in the league.

Motta is still struggling to tie the attack together and quite a bit of it is because of injuries, a lot of it is because of the profiles of players. Joshua Zirkzee isn’t with him anymore and he has more of a poacher in striker Dušan Vlahović, meaning that Motta’s attacking setup looks disjointed at times.

The Serbian’s last goal in Serie A came in October and the Bianconeri have relied on goals from Samuel Mbangula and Kenan Yıldız, with Nico González injured and Teun Koopmeiners yet to settle in fully.

City’s porous defence

As has been widely documented, Guardiola’s side have suffered from Rodri‘s absence but their problems do go beyond that.

They have the 11th worst xG conceded figure in the Premier League, which shows that the Spaniard hasn’t quite adapted to the midfielder’s injury and City’s aging squad is now slowly but surely showing more and more vulnerabilities.

They have shown a tendency to get exposed on the break and Juve, who do have quick and young players in Yıldız and Mbangula would love to take advantage of that weakness.

Juve have big injury issues

Juve are going through injury issues, with both Bremer and Juan Cabal out due to ACL injuries. Douglas Luiz and Gonzalez are also out, with Arek Milik expected to only return next year. Andrea Cambiaso, who has impressed this season, could also miss the game.

City have problems of their own

Rodri and Oscar Bobb are long-term injury absentees, but Mateo Kovačić and John Stones are also out. Both Manuel Akanji and Nathan Aké also picked up injuries in recent weeks and will miss the clash in Turin.

Prediction

It would be a battle of Juve’s misfiring attack and City’s chaotic defending. Could one cancel out the other? Or could Juve snatch three points in this one?

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings, and a new super-intuitive knockout stage bracket. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Arsenal play Monaco in a battle for the top eight

Arsenal and Monaco were seventh and eighth going into the sixth round of the UEFA Champions League’s new group stage (slipping to 10th and 11th after Tuesday’s games), meaning their face-off could well prove to be pivotal in both sides’ quest to earn a direct ticket to the Round of 16. So, even without the threat of elimination for either side, they will likely produce an interesting match.

By Neel Shelat

Defensive deficiencies for both sides

Both teams will be without some key defensive players for this match, albeit for different reasons.

Gabriel Magalhães, Benjamin White and Riccardo Calafiori are all expected to miss the game for Arsenal, while rotation option Takehiro Tomiyasu remains sidelined and Oleksandr Zinchenko also missed the weekend’s match against Fulham. Mikel Arteta found a creative solution for that fixture as Jurriën Timber was shifted across to the left of the back line and Thomas Partey dropped to the right, so it will be interesting to see whether a more conventional option like Kieran Tierney is preferred for this relatively lower-stakes game.

Arsenal drew that game at Fulham, taking their current unbeaten run to six games, in all competitions.

Monaco, on the other hand, have to deal with a couple of suspensions. Versatile defender Wilfried Singo’s red card led to their dramatic defeat against Benfica in the last round, while young Christian Mawissa received his third yellow card of the Champions League season in that game. Krépin Diatta, who has mostly been used as a right back this season, is also out injured.

Despite these absences, both defences can be expected to hold firm as they have conceded the second-lowest xG tally in their respective leagues. In a potentially tight match, Arsenal may well turn to set-pieces again having scored from corners in each of their last four games. However, they might meet their match in this respect too as Monaco have conceded the fewest shots from set-pieces in Ligue 1 this season.

Monaco’s youngsters raring to impress

23-year-old USMNT striker Folarin Balogun will miss the opportunity to reunite with former club Arsenal as he too is out injured, but Monaco have a whole host of other youngsters who will be keen to impress.

Chief among them will be teenage Moroccan international Eliesse Ben Seghir, who is equally capable of scoring and creating goals as his tally of four goals and three assists in Ligue 1 this season shows. Rotating between the left and central attacking positions in Monaco’s 4-2-3-1 formation, he is sure to excite whenever he gets on the ball.

Ben Seghir can rather steal the spotlight away from some of his teammates at times, especially fellow attacker Maghnes Akliouche. The French youth international has four goals and as many assists to his name for Monaco on the back of a busy summer in which he was a part of France’s silver medal-winning Olympic side.

Senegalese midfielder Lamine Camara and Brazilian right back Vanderson should also be considered ones to watch, while 18-year-old striker George Ilenikhena will look to make an impact off the bench again.

Prediction

Monaco have adopted a pretty intense style of play under Adi Hütter this season, but it might just prove to be their undoing against an Arsenal side who have grit and star power in equal measure. The Gunners could well record a narrow victory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Champions League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings, and a new super-intuitive knockout stage bracket. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Lewandowski takes Barcelona to former club Dortmund

After making a run to last season’s Champions League final, Borussia Dortmund have once again showcased their best form in the competition this season, winning four of their five matches so far.

By Graham Ruthven

Two of the best goalscoring sides in the competition

While Nuri Şahin has come under pressure for Dortmund’s stuttering form in the Bundesliga, the Black and Yellows have scored goals for fun in the Champions League, registering wins over Club Brugge, Celtic, Sturm Graz and Dinamo Zagreb.

Only one team has scored more goals than Dortmund in this season’s Champions League and that’s Barcelona who have netted an eye-catching 18 goals in just five games.

Recently, though, Hansi Flick’s team have looked vulnerable. Barca have won just one of their last five matches in LaLiga matches with their latest misstep coming against Real Betis on Saturday when the Catalans were pegged back late on in a 2-2 draw.

Flick’s high-intensity, high-risk approach has made Barcelona the most entertaining team in Europe this season, but it has also made them vulnerable to opponents who attack them directly.

This match-up could be a good one for Dortmund with their attack geared towards getting into open space. Barca will give them plenty of space to exploit.

Potential match winners

Jamie Gittens continues to grow in stature for Borussia Dortmund. The English winger has scored in each of his last four matches and is quickly becoming the Bundesliga giants’ most reliable attacking difference-maker – as discussed in a profile piece on Gittens that we published here this week.

Felix Nmecha is also in a rich vein of form and will give Dortmund plenty of dynamism in central midfield. He will have to maintain his positional discipline against a Barcelona team that will try to play around the Dortmund midfield.

Nico Schlotterbeck will be an important figure for the hosts on Tuesday night. The 25-year-old is generally the defender charged with getting Dortmund out from the back and that will be particularly significant against Barcelona’s high press.

Lamine Yamal is back from injury for Barca and has picked up where he left off by registering assists in his last two matches. The teenager remains the most reliable creative force for Flick’s team.

Robert Lewandowski has been sharp in front of goal this season, netting a tournament high seven goals in just five Champions League outings. He will be a good bet to find the back of the net against his former club.

*Lewandowski shot map, Champions League 2024/25*

Team news

Waldermar Anton and Niklas Süle will both miss the match against Barcelona, meaning Emre Can might be set to step into central defence as an emergency option.

Maximilian Beier and Julian Brandt are also expected to be sidelined for the visit of the Catalans, although Karim Adeyemi could feature, even if it’s off the bench in the role of an impact sub.

Andreas Christensen, Ronald Araújo and Ansu Fati have recently returned to training for Barcelona, but aren’t expected to feature at the Westfalenstadion on Tuesday with Flick reluctant to rush them back.

Dani Olmo is expected to keep his place in the Barcelona lineup, although it’s possible Frenkie de Jong could start in central midfield with Pedri pushed into a more advanced role where he can have an influence around the box.

Prediction

We’re expecting goals but it is a tough one to call, so we’re go for an entertaining score draw: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Barcelona

(Cover image from IMAGO)

Dec

2024

FotMob Profile: Borussia Dortmund’s flying English winger Jamie Gittens

First there was Jadon Sancho. Then there was Jude Bellingham. Now, it would appear, there is Jamie Gittens. Not for the first time in recent years, Borussia Dortmund are providing a platform to a young English talent with the potential to reach the top. Anyone who has watched Gittens of late knows just how good he is.

By Graham Ruthven

The 20-year-old has scored in each of his last four Dortmund appearances. His goal in Der Klassiker against Bayern Munich was particularly eye-catching and made a statement about the match-winning ability of a player increasingly seen as the Black and Yellows next superstar. Gittens has made himself undroppable.

His development at the Westfalenstadion has been rapid. Signed from Manchester City in 2020, he was viewed differently to other young English players who joined Dortmund around the same time. Sancho was a star in the City academy while Bellingham had been publicly courted by Manchester United and cost £25m. Gittens’ arrival flew under the radar.

He was raw. The talent was there, but Gittens needed moulding. He made his Bundesliga debut as a teenager in the 2021/22 season, but only started one match. The following season, he started four times. Then 14 times the season after that. This season, he is a key figure for Nuri Şahin’s side.

Comparisons to Bellingham and Sancho are unavoidable, but Gittens’ game is very different to either of his compatriots. Bellingham, of course, is a central midfielder, but even Sancho – a fellow winger – operates differently. While Sancho wants plenty touches of the ball, Gittens is all about bursting into open space. He is a more explosive threat.

This was evident in the way Gittens found the back of the net against Bayern Munich, breaking down the left wing before finishing across goal and into the far corner. Konrad Laimer is probably still having nightmares about the way the 20-year-old left him for dead with an incredible dummy which opened up the space for Gittens to exploit.

Dortmund fans have seen Gittens produce this sort of moment several times this season. It’s ‘The Gittens Goal,’ as it’s becoming known. There are even clips of the young Englishman practicing this exact move – an explosive run down the left side followed by a cut inside and finish – on the training pitch. Gittens has put the work in.

“You need one-on-one players who have speed,” said Dortmund manager Şahin when asked to explain what makes Gittens so dangerous. “He’s maturing in his game. We talk a lot about risk and reward. When do I go into the one-on-one, when do I prepare for it? When he gets rolling, he’s a fantastic player. He’s also made huge strides defensively.”

While the Champions League has once again brought the best out of Borussia Dortmund this season, winning four of their five league phase fixtures so far, their inconsistent Bundesliga form has seen Şahin scrutinised. Sitting in sixth place, 12 points off Bayern Munich at the top of the table, the title race is already gone for the Black and Yellows. There never was one.

Gittens, though, has been a highlight for a club currently retooling for the future. Borussia Dortmund need new stars and the 20-year-old is certainly shining brightly with Wednesday’s match against Barcelona another opportunity to make an impact. Barca’s high line under Hansi Flick will give Gittens plenty space to expose in behind. It could be a good match-up for him.

Statistically, Gitten’s skill set is clear in the numbers he is currently charting. He is in the 99th percentile for successful take-ons that lead to an attempt on goal per 90 minutes. He also ranks in the 94th percentile for goal-creating actions per 90 minutes. In terms of progressive carries and carries into the penalty area, Gittens is similarly up there.

*Gittens possession stats, Bundesliga 2024/25*

On his current trajectory, it won’t be long until Gittens is being called into the England squad. Thomas Tuchel is surely looking at his former club and the eye-catching performances of their young winger with the German coach set to take over as The Three Lions’ new manager at the start of 2025.

Competition is stiff in the wide areas of the England squad. Gittens would be up against the likes of Jack Grealish, Phil Foden, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen and Sancho, but his skill set could give the national team a different dimension. Of the aforementioned bunch, only Rashford has the explosiveness of Gittens and that hasn’t been seen for a long time.

For club and country, the future is bright for Gittens who chose an alternative path to further his development just as Bellingham and Sancho did when they were at a similar age. Dortmund are still a work-in-progress under Şahin, but they have another English star to illuminate the way forward.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Bundesliga on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Premier League Team of the Week: Matchday 15

Storm Darragh threatened Matchday 15 but in the end, just one game was postponed. It meant league leaders Liverpool weren’t in action, the Merseyside derby is to be rearranged, and rivals had the opportunity to eat into the advantage the Reds had at the summit.

By Sam McGuire

That didn’t necessarily pan out for Arsenal or Manchester City, with both teams only managing to draw. Just one player from the title hopefuls made it into the FotMob Team of the Week. Who was it though and who joined them in the XI?

Goalkeeper: Mads Hermansen

For a second successive matchday, the Leicester City shot-stopper makes it into the FotMob XI.

The 24-year-old played his part in the Foxes picking up a point against Brighton on Sunday. Hermansen made five saves and faced shots with an Expected Goals on Target total of 3.14. It meant his exploits between the sticks prevented 1.14 goals. The point meant Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s side are now five clear of the drop zone.

Centre-back: William Saliba

Saliba is another to retain his place in the FotMob Team of the Week. The Arsenal centre-back made it two goals in two games as he scored the equaliser for the Gunners in the 1-1 draw with Fulham on Sunday afternoon. The 23-year-old also completed 93% of his passes, recovered the ball on five occasions and won 50% of his duels against Marco Silva’s side. He did well without Gabriel, his usual partner in crime, beside him at the heart of Mikel Arteta’s defence.

Centre-back: Illia Zabarnyi

Zabarnyi was a standout for Bournemouth as they came from 1-0 down at Portman Road to claim a 2-1 win over Ipswich Town. The centre-back completed 83% of his attempted passes and 100% of his dribbles. He won all six of his tackles and made 10 ball recoveries. The Ukraine international won 90% of his ground duels and four of his six aerial duels in what was an utterly dominant showing.

Centre-back: Maxence Lacroix

Lacroix caught the eye in Crystal Palace’s surprise 2-2 draw with Manchester City. The former Wolfsburg defender scored the second goal for the Eagles but his overall performance was enough to warrant a place in this team. The 24-year-old handled the Man City press well, finding a teammate 83% of the time. He completed 100% of his dribbles and made five headed clearances. He also triumphed in 100% of his ground duels at Selhurst Park.

Right wing-back: Bryan Mbeumo

Deployed in a tweaked role, Mbeumo still managed to shine for Brentford as the Bees made it seven wins from eight at home. The versatile forward, deployed at wing-back, scored and assisted in the 4-2 win over Newcastle United. The 25-year-old created three chances on the day. He also attempted three dribbles and had a total of three shots. Mbeumo caused the Magpies a host of problems and even missed a big chance. He capped off an impressive showing with an 80% win rate in duels.

Left wing-back: Pervis Estupiñán

Estupiñán will feel unlucky not to have been on the winning side this weekend. The Brighton full-back created two chances against Leicester and did finish the game with an assist. He completed 100% of his dribbles, won two of his three tackles and five of his seven ground duels. He did his job, both defensively and offensively, but the Seagulls couldn’t fend off the Foxes in the 2-2 draw.

Midfield: Will Hughes

Hughes was busy in Crystal Palace’s draw with the reigning champions. The 29-year-old carved out three chances at Selhurst Park, the same number as City maestro Kevin De Bruyne, and claimed two assists in the 2-2 draw. The midfielder also completed 100% of his dribbles and won 80% of his ground duels.

Midfield: Cole Palmer

It was the Cole Palmer show on Sunday evening as Chelsea cut Liverpool’s lead at the top to just four points. The Blues came from 2-0 down against Spurs to record a 4-3 win. Palmer confidently dispatched two penalties. He was involved in four chances for Enzo Maresca’s side and had a key part in Enzo Fernández’s goal too. The former Man City youngster completed four of his five dribbles and won 80% of his duels. He was the main man for the surprise title challengers.

Attacking midfield: Morgan Gibbs-White

Gibbs-White claimed a goal and an assist as Nottingham Forest secured a shock upset at Old Trafford on Saturday evening. The versatile midfielder bamboozled André Onana with an effort just moments into the second half before assisting the in-form Chris Wood just seven minutes later. The 24-year-old attempted four dribbles and was involved in 13 duels against Manchester United, proving himself to be effective in and out of possession. The win moved Forest to within two points of fourth-place Man City.

Attacking midfield: Matheus Nunes

Pep Guardiola’s greatest achievement might be turning Matheus Nunes into a genuine attacking threat. The former Wolves midfielder created four chances against Crystal Palace, the most of any player on the pitch. He also claimed an assist, completed three of his four attempted dribbles and involved himself in five tackles as well as 12 duels on the day. It was an all-action display and his 8.8 FotMob rating was more than justified.

Striker: Jarrod Bowen

West Ham won the must-not-lose match against Wolves on Monday evening. The Hammers are now nine points clear of the dropzone, largely because of Bowen. The forward assisted the opener and then scored the winner as Julen Lopetegui got one over on his former employers. The 27-year-old was the only player on the pitch to claim a FotMob rating of over 8.3, proving himself to be the real difference maker on the night.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

This Championship season could be tighter than ever

There remains no league quite like the EFL Championship this season, with such deep financial inequality yet still this feeling that anything could happen.

By Ian King

Four teams have pulled clear at the top of the table, but the gap isn’t huge and anybody down into the bottom half could still consider themselves to have half a chance yet of reaching the play-offs. Swansea City are 13th, but are only seven points off 6th-placed Blackburn.

This tightness starts at the top. Sheffield United lead the way with 39 points, with Leeds on 38, Burnley on 37, and Sunderland on 36. There’s then a five point gap down to Middlesbrough, and they’re level with Blackburn. To say that there’s all to play for would be something of an understatement. And with the Blades out of action this evening but the other three all playing, it could be even tighter by ten o’clock tonight.

Furthermore, Leeds have the trickiest fixture of them all. They’re at home to Middlesbrough after having bounced back from a 1-0 reversal at Blackburn with a 2-0 win against Derby County. They’ve also been in sticky form recently, with a defeat at Millwall which was followed by a slightly stodgy 2-0 win against struggling QPR and an extraordinary game at Swansea, in which they conceded an equaliser in the 90th minute only to score a minute later to take the match 4-3.

If Leeds do slip up against a Middlesbrough team who came away from Turf Moor on Saturday with a 1-1 draw against Burnley, the teams below them could be poised to strike. Burnley themselves are at home to Derby County, who were only promoted back from League One at the end of last season and who are hardly setting the division alight this time around. Burnley’s greatest strength this season so far has been an extremely miserly defence. They’ve conceded just seven goals in nineteen games, and the goal they conceded in their 1-1 draw with Boro at the weekend was the first they’d conceded since 3 November, ending a run of five consecutive clean sheets.

All three of these clubs have the substantial advantage of Premier League parachute payments, but this doesn’t apply to fourth-placed Sunderland, who have had the worst form of the top four over the last few weeks. Their 2-1 win against Stoke City on Saturday was their first in six games. Had they taken anything like maximum points they’d be comfortably clear at the top of the table – indeed, they were from 1 October to 9 November – but that recent stumble has left them in fourth place, three points off the top of the table. Sunderland’s recent form gives a hint as to why this year’s division is so tight. Sunderland may have gone six games without a win, but five of those were consecutive draws before a 1-0 defeat at Middlesbrough the week before the Stoke win.

And there have been a lot of draws in the Championship this season; 73 of them in 224 matches, or 32.6%! That compares with 24% over the course of the whole of the 2023/24 season, an increase of more than a third. Two teams – West Bromwich Albion and Preston North End – have drawn more than half of their matches, West Brom leading the way with 11 draws from just 18 matches. Fourteen of the 24 teams in the division last season didn’t manage more than that in 46.

What this says about the Championship this season is that there may be very little between the teams this season at both a macro and micro level. Draw the lens back and yes, there are just seven points between 6th and 13th in the table. But zoom back in and that tightness seems to also exist on a match-by-match basis. The number of West Brom’s draws isn’t even their only statistical anomaly. They’ve also lost just twice in the league all season, the sort of performance that you might expect to see from a team at the top of the table, except they’re 8th. It doesn’t end there, either. Norwich City are in 10th. They’re the division’s top scorers with 35, and they’ve also conceded the joint-most, with 30.

And the reason for this is fewer goals. There have been 2.46 goals per game in the division so far this season in comparison with 2.68 over the course of last season. Fewer goals mean a higher likelihood of more draws, and more draws means a tighter league table. Sheffield United, Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland may be leading the way at the moment, but as the 46-game slog continues and wear & tear start to show, the final destination point of those two precious automatic promotion places seems unlikely to become any clearer for a while yet.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

ou can follow every game from the Championship with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Atalanta meet Real Madrid in Super Cup rematch

It was only four months ago that Atalanta and Real Madrid met each other in the UEFA Super Cup with Los Blancos emerging 2-0 winners in a game that was defined by Kylian Mbappé’s first competitive goal in all-white.

By Graham Ruthven

A European rematch

At that time of that Super Cup triumph, many anticipated that Mbappé’s debut goal would accelerate his integration into Carlo Ancelotti’s team, but the Frenchman has struggled to find a role in his new side despite scoring 11 goals in all competitions.

Having won just two of their five fixtures so far in this season’s Champions League, Real Madrid need points on the board to be certain of their place in the next round. Those points will be hard to come by in Bergamo.

Atalanta are currently leading the way at the top of Serie A and are growing into genuine Scudetto challengers. Gian Piero Gasperini has been Atalanta manager for eight years, but La Dea look stronger than ever under his stewardship.

Friday’s 2-1 victory over AC Milan was Atalanta’s ninth successive win in all competitions. They have also dropped points in this season’s Champions League just twice – against Arsenal and Celtic.

Key players

Real Madrid might have a team of Galacticos, but Atalanta have some stars of their own, particularly in the attack where they have the talent to put the defending European champions to the sword.

Mateo Retegui is the top scorer in Serie A this season with 12 goals in 15 appearances while Ademola Lookman is a consistent threat off the left wing with his dribbling ability and eye for goal.

Charles De Ketelaere is in exceptional form having registered 12 direct goal contributions in his last eight games (all comps) including a goal in the 2-1 win over former club AC Milan that sent Atalanta top of Serie A.

Jude Bellingham has looked like his old self in recent outings for Real Madrid, scoring in each of his last three games. Meanwhile, Mbappé has been more comfortable recently with Vinícius Júnior on the sidelines through injury.

Fede Valverde will likely start in Real Madrid’s midfield unit after filling in at right back recently with the Uruguayan’s energy and work ethic important in the centre of the pitch.

At the back, Raúl Asencio is expected to partner Antonio Rüdiger. The former Castilla defender has eased Real Madrid’s defensive injury crisis and has looked the part at the back recently.

Team news

Juan Cuadrado, Gianluca Scamacca and Davide Zappacosta will all be unavailable for Atalanta’s home match against Real Madrid on Tuesday.

Otherwise, Gasperini has a fully fit squad to choose from. Retegui could come back into the lineup after starting the win over AC Milan on the bench, although Mario Pašalić could keep his place after impressing.

Vinícius could make a return from injury, but David Alaba, Eduardo Camavinga, Dani Carvajal, Ferland Mendy and Éder Militão remain unavailable for Real Madrid. Ancelotti will have no choice but to once again use a makeshift backline.

Prediction

It could be revenge time for the impressive Serie A leaders, so Atalanta 2-1 Real Madrid.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

Dec

2024

Preview: Arne Slot’s Liverpool looking to continue Champions League run at Girona

Liverpool are looking to make it six wins from six in the Champions League on Tuesday as they travel to Spain to take on Girona.

By Sam McGuire

Arne Slot’s men have a 100% record having beaten Real Madrid, RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen, AC Milan and Bologna so far this season in Europe. The Reds are already into the knockout phase of the competition and this puts them in a fairly unique position for their final three group stage fixtures.

Will they look to keep momentum going in a bid to return to winning ways or will the former Feyenoord boss look at this game as an opportunity to rotate?

The season so far in Europe

Girona have found it difficult in Europe.

There’s no beating around the bush. Michel’s side find themselves in 30th position (of 36) in the new-look Champions League format.

The LaLiga side have lost four of their five matches in the competition. They were expected to lose to Paris Saint-Germain but defeats against Feyenoord and Sturm Graz came as a bit of a surprise. A heavy loss to PSV Eindhoven also dented their hopes of progression while their only victory arrived against Slovan Bratislava.

They have scored just four goals across their five outings and have conceded on nine occasions.

Liverpool, by comparison, have been perfect in Europe.

The Reds have 15 points from 15, they’ve scored 12 goals and have conceded just once. Inter Milan are the only team to have a better defensive record having kept clean sheets in all five of their games this term.

Current form

The Spanish side haven’t been able to replicate the heroics from last season. Girona claimed an unlikely third-place finish having amassed 81 points. Right now, they find themselves in ninth position, four points behind fifth and four points ahead of 14th.

They are winless in four and have conceded six goals across these four outings across all competitions, all while scoring just two goals.

Their home form in LaLiga hasn’t been great. They have played eight, won four and lost three this term. They’ve scored 15 and conceded 13 in these games. So no home comforts for the Blanquivermells.

Their top scorer in the league is 38-year-old Cristhian Stuani. You might remember him from his stint with Middlesborough. They also boast a former Liverpool transfer target too in Arnaut Danjuma.

Liverpool dropped points in their last outing against Newcastle United. The Magpies scored a late equaliser to halt the seven match winning run the Reds had been on. Still, Slot and his side are unbeaten since their shock defeat to Nottingham Forest in September. The Merseyside club had an unexpected break over the weekend after the Merseyside derby was postponed due to Storm Darragh. It hasn’t eased their injury crisis but the players that are fit had a bit of an extended break, so should be fit and firing.

The Injury situation

The 2019/20 Premier League champions are still without Alisson, Ibrahima Konaté, Conor Bradley, Kostas Tsimikas and Diogo Jota. Federico Chiesa was expected to play following his return to the first-team squad after a mini pre-season but he missed training on Monday with illness. He’s now a doubt for the match while Alexis Mac Allister is suspended.

Girona are expected to be without two key players in Yangel Herrera and Viktor Tsygankov. Other than that though, Michel has a full squad to pick from.

Prediction

Even if the Reds opt to go with a weaker XI, they should have enough quality at their disposal to pick up the win in Spain. We expect Liverpool to make it six wins from six in Europe.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

Dec

2024

The FotMob Team of the Season for MLS

The 2024 Major League Soccer season came to an end on Saturday as LA Galaxy defeated New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup final. There have been some standout performances across the regular season and the playoffs, but who has been good enough to make our best XI?

By James Nalton

Goalkeeper: Kristijan Kahlina, Charlotte FC (7.18 FotMob rating)

There was one obvious standout goalkeeper in MLS this season: Charlotte’s Kristijan Kahlina.

The Croatian topped the charts for the goals prevented stat by some distance, ahead of Matt Freese who still deserves a mention for his performances with New York City this season.

This more advanced stat, based on xGOT faced, is linked to expected goals and assigns a number between zero and one to each shot on target faced based on its likelihood of finding the net.

The number of goals conceded is then subtracted from the total xGOT faced to give an idea of how many shots a goalkeeper is saving that they might not be expected to — hence “goals prevented”.

Kahlina also topped more traditional goalkeeping metrics such as save percentage (76%) and clean sheets (13) even though the latter is more of a team defensive stat.

The Charlotte goalkeeper was named Goalkeeper of the Year in this year’s MLS awards, receiving 35% of the votes. If anything, it’s surprising this percentage wasn’t higher.

Right-back: Steven Moreira, Columbus Crew (6.96)

Moreira was named Defender of the Year for his performances on the right of the Crew’s back three.

Though this means he’s classed as a centre-back, his job is as much about what Columbus does with the ball as it is defending without it.

Playing right-back for much of his career before joining the Crew has helped his adaptation to this fairly specific role.

One could imagine him playing effectively as a right-back in a back four who also contributes to build-up play, as he will do in our imaginary XI.

Centre-back: Yeimar Gómez, Seattle Sounders (7.29)

When it comes to pure defensive work, Yeimar remains one of the best central defenders in MLS.

Seattle conceded the fewest goals in the league during the 2024 season, and Yeimar’s partnership with Jackson Ragen in the middle of the Sounders’ backline played a big part in that.

His proactive defending also takes some burden off the midfield, and he led MLS for interceptions in 2024 with 63.

Centre-back: Miles Robinson: FC Cincinnati (7.05)

Robinson has played as part of a back three for Cincinnati this season, and showed he is still among the most highly regarded centre-backs in the league even while not being at his absolute best.

Robinson ranks well in FotMob’s season performance data for duels, both from tackling and aerial ability.

Cincinnati had the third best defence in the Eastern Conference behind the already mentioned Charlotte and Columbus.

Left-back: Jordi Alba, Inter Miami (7.54)

Alba’s availability and consistency made him one of the more reliable members of Inter Miami’s star cast.

He was third in the team for total minutes played and finished the season having scored five goals and made 11 assists.

His retirement from international duty in 2023 increased his availability in a league which plays through international breaks and he played a big role in his team’s record-breaking regular season.

*Alba’s player traits – check those attacking metrics!*

Defensive midfielder: Sergio Busquets, Inter Miami (7.35)

Busquets, like Alba, was one of the strongholds of this Supporters’ Shield-winning Inter Miami season.

There was the odd shaky moment as the defensive side of Inter Miami’s team was often left in the lurch by the understandable focus on attack, but overall he was a steady, important presence.

A combination of defensive nous and link-up play in possession meant he was often the player that made the whole thing work for Miami.

Midfielder: Riqui Puig, LA Galaxy (8.17)

The veneration of Puig during the MLS Cup final showed how important he has been to LA Galaxy this season, despite an ACL injury keeping him out of the MLS Cup final itself.

The Spaniard is the best footballer in the league not named Messi, and has been instrumental in LA Galaxy’s turnaround this season, orchestrating their play from midfield.

Attacking midfielder: Ryan Gauld, Vancouver Whitecaps (7.79)

The outgoing Whitecaps head coach Vanni Sartini once said of Gauld: “In the last 5, 6, 7 games he’s almost MVP level. Some other guys are more flashy, maybe. He’s what I call a working-class DP.”

It sums up Gauld’s contributions in Vancouver where he has always been up among the best players in the league since joining in 2021.

There was more of the same from the Scottish attacker in 2024 as he scored 15 goals and made 12 assists across MLS regular season and post-season in 2024 this year.

Attacking midfielder: Evander, Portland Timbers (8.06)

Despite finishing 15th in the overall standings, Portland scored the fourth-most goals in MLS in 2024, partly because Evander was one of the league’s most productive attacking players.

Only Luciano Acosta registered more assists than Evander across the regular season and playoffs, and only Messi had more goals plus assists combined in the regular season.

Forward: Lionel Messi, Inter Miami (8.30)

Having missed a large part of the season through a combination of injury and international call-ups, there was plenty of debate around whether Messi had played enough games to be considered for the MVP award, but on a per-game basis, his stats broke MLS records.

He was voted the league’s MVP in 2024 on the back of votes from the media and his fellow players, and his stats and performances in the 22 MLS appearances he did make in 2024 make it difficult to argue against them.

Forward: Cucho Hernández, Columbus Crew (7.85)

While Puig is the second-best footballer in the league after Messi, Cucho has been the second-best player in terms of performance levels in 2024, so much so that he led the MLS MVP vote among technical staff at MLS clubs.

His defensive work is almost as impressive as his attacking numbers, as he’s one of the best in the league at winning the ball in the attacking third.

He led the league for shots per 90 in 2024, scored 19 goals, and made 11 assists.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

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