Page 88 – The Pulse of Football

Jan

2024

A title defence in tatters: What’s gone wrong for Napoli

The 2022/23 Serie A season was perfect for the football romantics as Napoli won the Scudetto for the first time since the days of Diego Maradona. Their abject downfall this season has attracted just as much attention, with a repeat of that title win now seemingly a far-fetched dream.

By Kaustubh Pandey

If there’s a word that encapsulates Napoli’s struggles this season, it is probably ‘chaos’. The contrast from the success of last season is incredibly stark, as the Partenopei lie eighth in the table and have already crashed out of the Coppa Italia. As they prepare for the Supercoppa Italiana in Saudi Arabia, a feeling of pessimism lingers around the club despite the recent 2-1 win over local rivals Salernitana as they had to rely on a late Amir Rrahmani goal to seal all three points against Serie A’s rock bottom side.

It isn’t just the lack of results that is the problem, the season has seen a fair amount of drama and controversy unfold off the field and all of that has contributed to the frustration at the club. Even though the South Coast club seem set to make at least three signings this month, it remains to be seen whether they can turn things around in what’s left of the 2023/24 campaign.

With that in mind, we explore the reasons why Napoli are not matching the heights of last season.

A numerical fall-off

Last season, Napoli conceded an xG of only 32.1, which was the best tally in the league and that is less than one goal per 90.

A comparison to this season would suggest that things have fallen off significantly in the backline and the reasons for that are both personnel and tactics related, with the club having failed to replicate Luciano Spalletti’s approach, under the two managers subsequently employed to replace him; Rudi Garcia and Walter Mazzarri.

They are ninth in the xG conceded charts, having already given up an xG of 21.8 when only a half of the season has been played. They have conceded a goal every 90 minutes, which is a fair reflection of how far things have come for the champions.

Even in attack, things seem worse off. Much worse off. The team that relied on fluid movements across the final third has become one which seems scared or, if anything, happy to bask in last season’s achievement.

They have gone from scoring at a rate of two goals per game to scoring 1.5 goals per game this season, which is a major drop off. That brings us onto the co-related reasons for the numerical downfall.

Failure to replace key personnel

Last season, a part of Napoli’s success was credited to their excellent recruitment after losing the likes of Lorenzo Insigne, Dries Mertens, Kalidou Koulibaly and Fabián Ruiz during the previous off-season.

Historically known as a club that recruits well, Napoli had Cristiano Guintoli for many years to make sure that the departure of players wasn’t keenly felt. In the summer, Guintoli headed to rivals Juventus, following the path that Gonzalo Higuaín took many years ago. In came former Spezia technical director Mauro Meluso, who had never operated at the highest level of the sport.

This was followed by Luciano Spalletti’s acrimonious exit, with the reasons ranging from the fact that he and CEO Aurelio de Laurentiis were not seeing eye-to-eye to a lack of commitment shown in the transfer window to upgrade the squad. Losing Spalletti wasn’t the problem, but bringing in Rudi Garcia was. The Frenchman’s hasty return to Italy came after a disappointing spell at Al Nassr and amidst clear signs of his declining stock. His appointment came despite the Partenopei’s links with the likes of Julian Nagelsmann and Luis Enrique.

The story of exits didn’t end there, as Kim Min-Jae departed for Bayern Munich and with the club struggling to land a top class replacement, Red Bull Bragantino’s Natan was signed for €10m in what has proved to be a very underwhelming move. To be fair to him, due to injuries, he has often played left-back, which has had a knock-on effect on how star man Khvicha Kvaratskhelia operates further up the field.

Moves for Jesper Lindstrom and Jens Cajuste haven’t led to a concrete improvement either.

Injuries

Apart from a drop in his numbers, there has been a change in the way Kvaratskhelia has been deployed, and that is partly because of injuries. The regular presence of Mathías Olivera and Mário Rui last season made sure that the Georgian was never caught out in 2v1 situations but injuries to the duo have made sure that the winger is often nullified by the opposition.

Victor Osimhen himself has picked up injuries this season, derailing his rapid rise to the top. Natan himself is currently injured, with backup defender Juan Jesus’ issues also having impacted the club’s overall defensive composition.

Managerial instability and lack of quality

Eyebrows were raised when Garcia was appointed from almost out of nowhere. For De Laurentiis, it was a cheap move and there was the lingering guarantee of the Frenchman having the Serie A know-how.

But that appeared to have deserted Garcia during his time in charge. His odd substitutions saw Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia publicly express anger at decisions when they were replaced, suggesting that not everything was right. Matteo Politano, who has been a standout performer, also expressed annoyance at his substitution later. It was clear that Garcia was not commanding the respect of the players, who weren’t at their best at all while being held back by a system that sought to seek more control than Spalletti’s previous approach.

De Laurentiis failed in moves for Antonio Conte and Igor Tudor, and the replacement for Garcia was another man whose career graph has long been on the decline – Mazzarri. The Italian did manage Napoli ten years ago in what was a memorable period for the club, but his most recent posting had seen him fail at Cagliari.

There was also a tactical disconnect. De Laurentiis was keen on hiring a manager who used a 4-3-3 system, but Mazzarri is known for a structured 3-5-2 shape, thereby rendering the choice to be incredibly strange.

The Osimhen controversies

The season has never been short of controversy, essentially shifting everyone’s focus to off-field activities.

Back in September, the club’s own social media account posted a video mocking Osimhen and it even carried racist undertones. It soon went viral, leading to the Nigerian’s agent Roberto Calenda condemning it publicly. This came amidst talk of a new deal and amidst the controversy, there was talk that this might impact the relationship between the two parties.

The club did apologise but it left a bitter taste in everyone’s mouths, considering how the season was already starting to pan out. More recently, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s agent Mamuka Jugeli spoke to a Georgian journalist, stating that Osimhen will join a Saudi Arabian club in the summer, for the money, even though he had eventually signed a new deal with Napoli.

The striker, the very next day, took aim. In an Instagram story, he said: “Dear Mamuka Jugeli, you are a piece of filth and a disgrace. I’m embarrassed at your sense of reasoning. Dumbf—! Keep my name out of your mouth!”

Osimhen’s agent Calenda also released a statement, lambasting Jugeli’s comments in what became a mini-media feud involving the club’s two star players, thus becoming the perfect encapsulation of the problems at the Maradona, in eyes of the watching public.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every Napoli and Serie A game on FotMob, with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Jordan Henderson returns from Saudi Arabia with a damaged reputation

As Jordan Henderson turns his back on his game-changing move to Saudi Arabia after just six months, it is only right to ask whether it was worth the damage it caused.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

In football, the understanding of optics has always been hugely important when it comes to transfers. More often than not, a new manager’s ‘in-tray’ includes reshaping a squad with their own signings; at times, clubs appear to bring in new faces simply to appease baying supporters. Former Manchester United executive Richard Arnold was once reported to have gleefully told shareholders that the recent loan signing of Odion Ighalo – the former Watford striker who arrived on a short-term deal from Chinese side Shanghai Shenhua – was “the top trend worldwide on Twitter.”

Those optics can work in the opposite way, with players and even managers seeing certain clubs as off-limits due to their previous ties to fierce rivals; a boyhood Sunderland player, for example, would be warded off a move to Newcastle.

Optics have played a significant part in the elongated saga surrounding former Liverpool captain Jordan Henderson, who has now terminated a controversial stay with Saudi Pro League side Al-Ettifaq after just six months, to join Ajax on a permanent deal.

Though his 12-year stay on Merseyside was not without its setbacks, and there remained doubters among the club’s support to the very end, Henderson was widely revered at Liverpool having led the club through its most successful era in the living memory of many. His trademark shuffle saw him lift the Premier League, the Champions League, the FA Cup, the League Cup, the Club World Cup and the UEFA Super Cup during a storied spell under Jürgen Klopp.

But it was also widely acknowledged that his time as a regular starter was drawing to a close. Klopp told his captain as much during a meeting after a dismal 2022-23 campaign, with his game time to be reduced as new midfielders were brought in. Henderson was slated for the James Milner role, it would seem, but he only trained alongside new £60 million stud Dominik Szoboszlai once before deciding to head to Saudi Arabia.

That is, the country whose many human rights issues have attracted widespread scrutiny and criticism amid the revamp of its footballing setup, with the fact that homosexuality is illegal in the gulf state a major sticking point when it came to Henderson’s decision to join Al-Ettifaq, given he had long been a vocal advocate of the LGBTQ+ community in his role as Liverpool captain.

The optics were all wrong, and all but seemingly Henderson could see that. Joining Al-Ettifaq on a three-year deal worth a reported £300,000-a-week, he insisted in an interview with The Athletic, was not motivated by the tax-free riches on offer, but the opportunity to “achieve something special and build a club and build the league” under the tutelage of a former team-mate in Steven Gerrard. Henderson insisted that he “didn’t know anything” about his new club’s marketing team noticeably greying out the rainbow armband he often wore at Liverpool in a series of images upon his unveiling. “If that disrespects their religion, then that’s not right either,” was his conclusion.

In short, Henderson was viewed as sacrificing his morals, and the image built up over more than a decade with Liverpool and England, to follow the swathes of high-profile players in chasing the eye-watering contracts on offer in Saudi Arabia. Though many players – such as Ruben Neves, who left Wolves at 26 to join Al Hilal – have admitted it was the driving factor, his own verdict was that appeal of “building the league” came up “before money was even mentioned.”

Except it hasn’t worked out that way. If we’re talking optics, it would be remiss to not note that, for all the hype around the Saudi Pro League throughout a busy-spending summer, few will be aware that their games are even being broadcast in the UK. The rights were not taken up by Sky Sports, TNT Sport or Amazon, and certainly not terrestrial broadcasters such as the BBC, ITV or Channel 4. Instead, games are available to watch live on streaming service DAZN. The even fewer who will tune in to watch the likes of Al-Nassr, Al-Ittihad and Al-Ettifaq may be staggered by the standard of football and in-person attendances at many fixtures in the Saudi top flight.

Henderson, if reports were to be believed, certainly was, with the fact he has at times played in front of crowds of fewer than 1,000 – with Al-Ettifaq’s 35,000-seater stadium boasting an average attendance of just 7,854 this season – cited as one of the reasons for his exit. So, too, was a struggle to adjust to the climate, though some would argue that this should have come into any research conducted when deciding to move continents.

Importantly, when it comes to the optics around Henderson agreeing to terminate his three-year contract at Al-Ettifaq after just six months, are claims that his desire to remain an important part of the England squad at the Euros, and a commitment to his young family, who have not settled in the Middle East.

Joining Ajax has been depicted in some quarters as a financial sacrifice from Henderson, more than anything – and it should be noted that the Premier League, or even a return to Sunderland in the Championship, is effectively off-limits until 2025, as returning to work in the UK would require paying back millions earned tax-free in Saudi Arabia. But there is a disappointment, from those who were long attached to the captain who lifted more different trophies for Liverpool than any other, that the move to Amsterdam comes after such a damaging side-quest.

If, at 33, Henderson had accepted Klopp’s reshuffle of the hierarchy and moved directly to Ajax, the optics would almost certainly have been a bold move to a respected European league for a player whose entire career had been spent in England. He would have been granted a rapturous farewell at Anfield, as a hero who helped bring silverware back to Liverpool.

Now, it is simply a marriage of convenience, his initial 18-month contract in Amsterdam appearing designed to allow those tax-free earnings to be time-barred before the next move can be calculated. Even for Ajax themselves – who won just one of their first eight games in the Eredivisie this season and now sit 23 points behind leaders PSV Eindhoven in fifth – the signing appears more of a PR move than one that will truly reinvigorate their campaign.

Of course, it should be maintained that Henderson owes us nothing. He is, effectively, just another human being who accepted a high-paid job under questionable circumstances, before deciding it wasn’t really for him and changing his mind.

But as he plays out at least a year-and-a-half of the few he has left at the top level of football, he will surely regret how things played out.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with everything Liverpool, make sure you click follow on the team profile in the FotMob app. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Turkey’s future is looking bright with Guler and Yildiz

Turkey, or Türkiye, have frequently flattered to deceive on international football’s biggest stages. Indeed, the Crescent-Stars have been identified as dark horses at more than one tournament in the past only for them to suffer a disappointing early exit (see Euro 2016 and 2020). It is with this in mind that Türkiye’s chances at Euro 2024 might be played down.

By Graham Ruthven

There is a sense, however, that this time will be different. Under Vincenzo Montella, Türkiye have enjoyed a resurgent period, finishing top of a Euros qualifying group that included Croatia and Wales, both of whom played at the 2022 World Cup. It’s not just positive results that have Turkish fans optimistic about the future either.

In Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, Türkiye boast two of the most talented teenagers anywhere in world football right now. At a time when Türkiye’s national team is entering a new era, Güler and Yıldız embody the country’s next generation and are improving with almost every match they play at the moment.

Güler made the €20m switch to Real Madrid from Fenerbahçe last summer and while the 18-year-old has yet to make an appearance in LaLiga, he has made a profound impact in Spain. Güler was the most eye-catching player on the pitch as Madrid beat Arandina in the Copa del Rey with the Turkish teenager also used off the bench against Atlético Madrid in the Spanish Supercopa.

This came in the same week that Yıldız scored two goals in three games for Juventus. For a Juve team that has sometimes struggled for attacking firepower this season, the 18-year-old who joined the Old Lady from Bayern Munich in 2022 has quickly become an important source of goal threat for Max Allegri’s team.

Both youngsters are expected to be included in Montella’s squad for Euro 2024 and on their current trajectory Güler and Yıldız could be key figures by the time Türkiye kick off their campaign on 18th June. There is a clamour for Montella to fast-track the pair because of their special talent. Türkiye has waited a long time for two players like this.

It takes a lot for Madrid supporters to get excited about a player, but the Spanish club’s fans can’t get enough of Güler. Carlo Ancelotti has come under pressure to start the 18-year-old in more matches due to the performances Güler has produced in the handful of games he has featured in this season.

“I said we have to be patient with him,” said Ancelotti when asked about Güler and the game time he has received since joining from Fenerbahçe. “He has personality, he has character. That’s good. He stands out for the quality he has with his feet, but character is also important to do well at Real Madrid.”

Nicknamed the ‘Turkish Messi,’ Güler is a natural dribbler. This is the quality that makes him so exhilarating to watch. The teenager has a low centre of gravity and is comfortable with both feet, giving him the ability to change direction in an instant. The Messi comparisons might be hyperbole, but you can see the mechanical parallels in the way Güler plays.

Yıldız has plenty to offer too. The Juventus attacker is versatile and can play out wide or through the middle as a modern centre forward. Yıldız possesses explosive speed and has the technical ability to shoot from almost anywhere in the final third – his finishing for Juventus this season has demonstrated this.

Arsenal and Liverpool have been linked with a move for Yıldız, but Juve is proving to be a healthy environment for the youngster who has started four of the Old Lady’s last five matches. Turin appears to be the perfect place for Yıldız at this stage of his career and it seems to be only a mater of time before Güler is getting the same sort of opportunities in Madrid.

Türkiye is one of the most passionate football nations on earth, but the last generation has seen the country struggle to produce talent for the sport’s elite level. Güler and Yıldız could change that for club and country, starting with Euro 2024. The two teenagers are spearheading a new, exciting Türkiye.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can track Güler and Yıldız’s progress, game by game, in both LaLiga and Serie A with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Johan Bakayoko: The supply line for PSV’s perfect start to the season

17 games, 17 wins. PSV Eindhoven have been perfect in the Eredivisie this season and Johan Bakayoko has been one of their best players. The 20-year-old’s assists per minute ratio is higher than any other player’s in the Dutch top flight, making Bakayoko the supply line behind PSV’s division-best attack.

By Graham Ruthven

Even looking beyond the Eredivisie, Bakayoko stands out. With four goals and 13 assists (all competitions) to his name, he is behind only Jude Bellingham and Florian Wirtz in the list of players age 21 and under for combined goals and assists in Europe’s biggest domestic leagues this season.

PSV have a history when it comes to producing exciting attacking talent. Indeed, Cody Gakpo, Noni Madueke and Xavi Simons have all used the Eindhoven club as a springboard in recent years and Bakayoko is seemingly next off the conveyer belt. Links with bigger, richer clubs are already being made.

Manchester United are reportedly among those monitoring Bakayoko. Sir Jim Ratcliffe and INEOS’s recent arrival at Old Trafford means a squad overhaul is expected in the near future and Bakayoko could be part of United’s plan to rebuild the right side of their team. The Belgian has apparently been valued at €40m.

Of course, it’s only 18 months ago that Manchester United spent €100m on a right winger from the Eredivisie. Antony was signed to be a difference-maker, but has been widely written off as an expensive flop instead. The Brazilian has failed to register a single goal or assist in 21 appearances (1,232 minutes) this season. United need better.

Bakayoko is the player the Old Trafford club believed Antony would be. He too is a left footer. Erik ten Hag wants his wide man on the right to be able to cut inside and Bakayoko is certainly capable of this and uses his dribbling skill to beat opponents and create opportunities in the attacking third.

The numbers speak for themselves. Bakayoko is ranked in the top 1% for touches in the final third per 90 minutes and progressive carries among players in his position this season. He also ranks highly for successful take-ons and passes and crosses into the opposition penalty area. Antony’s numbers aren’t up to the same level.

It’s not just that Bakayoko dribbles and carries the ball more effectively than Antony – his speed also gives him another dimension over the Brazilian. While opposition defenders can be confident Antony will want to play in front of them, Bakayoko has the pace to get in behind and stretch the pitch.

Antony’s underwhelming performances are having a knock-on effect at Manchester United. Rasmus Højlund, in particular, has suffered for a lack of service coming from the right winger who is frequently more interested in shooting himself from low percentage areas than setting up a teammate with a cross or ball through.

Luuk de Jong, on the other hand, is thriving as PSV’s centre forward with Bakayoko as his supplier. The pair have combined for two Eredivisie goals this season and have combined for many more ‘big chances’ which could have led to PSV scoring even more than the 59 goals in 17 games they have registered.

United might feel they can get more out of Antony with the addition of a new right back. Diogo Dalot and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have both struggled to create chemistry with the Brazilian, leading to suggestions that ten Hag could push for a more attack-minded right back like Jeremie Frimpong to fill the space Antony vacates by cutting inside.

Bakayoko, however, has succeeded while playing alongside a conservative right back. Jordan Teze is known to push high up the pitch, but is more likely to come into a central area than make an overlapping run. This hasn’t affected Bakayoko who uses Teze to combine with and bounce passes off around the edge of the box.

Most accept Manchester United’s €100m signing of Antony was a mistake. Even within Old Trafford, there is surely recognition of the mistake. The signing of Bakayoko, however, could help point United in the right direction again. They were right to sign a right winger from the Eredivisie. They just signed the wrong one.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every PSV Eindhoven game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Thijs Dallinga: The old fashioned number nine on the rise

Ligue 1 has been a breeding ground for some terrific number 9s over recent years. Loïs Openda, Randal Kolo Muani, Mathys Tel, Victor Osimhen are just some of the top examples of strikers who have gone on to achieve bigger things after honing their talents in French football. Dutch striker Thijs Dallinga could be next in line.

By Ninad Barbadikar

Born in the the city of Groningen, Dallinga came through the ranks at Emmen FC before joining Groningen’s reserve side. Disappointed with his lack of opportunities, he would take a step down to the Eerste Divisie, joining Excelsior, which is where Toulouse’s scouts took notice of his talents.

He was top scorer in his one season at Excelsior, scoring 32 times in 37 appearances. Though Excelsior finished sixth in the league standings that year, Dallinga had done more than enough to earn a move back to the big leagues.

At the age of 23, the Dutchman has only had a couple of seasons under his belt where he has been first choice but in a relatively short sample, he has been impressive and shown that he has the potential to guarantee goals at a higher level.

In an era where number 9s come in all different sizes, Dallinga is a refreshing throwback type striker who has a great understanding of space inside the opposition penalty area and uses that understanding to great effect.

In his debut season, Dallinga finished with 12 goals in Ligue 1 plus a further six in the Coupe de France helping Toulouse to silverware in their first season back in the French top flight.

A quick glance at his radar shows gives us a good overview of his strong attributes, the best of which is the ability to put the ball into the back of the net.

Dallinga was averaging 0.46 goals per 90 last season, about a goal every other game. His shot map from last season shows us a good volume of shots from inside the penalty area which is where his composure in finishing comes to the fore.

Only slightly overperforming his Expected Goals (xG) tally for the season of 9.88, Dallinga averaged some 0.38 xG per 90 during the 22/23 season. Whilst this indicates that he wasn’t getting into dangerous positions to convert high quality chances regularly, it probably has more to do with the way Toulouse are set up rather than Dallinga’s own inability to recognise those chances.

Toulouse are one of the most direct sides in the French top flight. This season, they are fifth for average possessions won in the final 3rd with 5.6, Carles Martínez’s side aren’t a particularly high pressing side but effective at baiting the opposition centre-backs into mistakes, which are then pounced upon by players like Dallinga.

Toulouse’s wingers and full-backs are highly effective at advancing up the pitch once the ball has been won back, after that, it is up to Dallinga to be in the right place at the right time to convert, which he usually does.

Dallinga as a nine doesn’t see too much of the ball but is efficient with it when he does. His hold-up play has plenty of room for improvement but he does drop off from the forward line to offer support to central midfielders and wide attackers when necessary.

This season he has scored five goals in the league from an xG figure of 6.70, four of those open-play goals have come from within the width of the goal-posts which is where Dallinga positions himself best to convert cutbacks or crosses to him.

The Groningen native has improved considerably on his underlying figures from last season, averaging 0.56 xG per 90 this season in Ligue 1, placing him in the 89th percentile amongst his peers across the European leagues.

He is also shooting more often than he did last season, averaging nearly 3 shots per 90 this term as compared to 2.3 shots per 90 in the 22/23 campaign. Dallinga’s economic style of finishing makes him difficult to stop once he gets the ball in the box, he is excellent at getting shots away quickly. Liverpool learn that lesson during their Europa League encounter at the Stadium TFC.

Things are looking bright for the Dutchman in the time to come.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every Ligue 1 game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Premier League Review: Matchday 21, part 1

It was an odd weekend for Premier League football, wasn’t it? Matchday 21 was split over two weeks meaning just 10 teams were involved this week. The five matches were split across three days and all televised. While the action may have been reduced, the drama was not.

Here’s part one of your matchday 21 round-up.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

The spoils shared at Turf Moor

Luton Town left it late against Burnley but they claimed a well-deserved point at Turf Moor. Rob Edwards’ side scored a controversial equaliser in stoppage time to ensure the gap between the two sides remained four points.

Burnley had taken the lead in the first half when Zeki Amdouni scored with his only effort of the game. The away side dominated possession – finishing with 62% – while also having one more effort than their hosts. However, the exploits of James Trafford between the sticks kept the home side in front up until the final stages, that is.

The former Manchester City shot-stopper saved 80% of the attempts he faced on Friday evening and many believe he was fouled in the build-up to the Carlton Morris equaliser. The goal was allowed to stand though and Burnley had what would’ve been only their second home win of the season snatched away from them.

Cole Palmer makes amends

In Chelsea’s Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg loss to Middlesbrough, Cole Palmer had a bit of a nightmare in front of goal. The versatile forward, who racked up an Expected Goals haul of 1.45, spurned two big chances in the 1-0 loss.

The Chelsea No. 20 was the match-winner on Saturday afternoon though, scoring the winning goal against Fulham (via the spot) to lift Mauricio Pochettino’s men up to ninth in the Premier League table.

With better finishing on the day, this could’ve been a comfortable victory for the Blues. Marco Silva’s side struggled to impose themselves on proceedings with Chelsea having 55% possession, 17 shots to 14 and finishing with an xG total of 2.19 to Fulham’s 0.86.

The Blues are now level on points with Brighton and just three points behind sixth-placed West Ham United. Pochettino’s side have some tricky games coming up but a run of positive results could get them in a European place.

The Kevin De Bruyne show

Jürgen Klopp wasn’t joking when he said: “Kevin De Bruyne is warming up. The whole country is starting to shake.”

Manchester City have been without their talisman for practically the entire campaign but his return to fitness comes at a perfect time for the second half of the campaign. Despite his absence, City are still in a title race and his reemergence could be what sparks their annual 17-match unbeaten run.

He came off the bench against Newcastle with the reigning Premier League champions trailing 2-1 after the hosts had responded to Bernardo Silva’s opener. Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon had scored past back-up goalkeeper Stefan Ortega after Ederson was replaced with an injury. Things didn’t look great for the visitors.

De Bruyne scored with what was an outrageously calm finish from distance. He just passed the ball into the bottom corner of the goal from 19 yards out. The effort had an xG value of 0.08 but an Expected Goals on Target value of 0.49.

The Belgian maestro then assisted a stoppage-time winner, picking out Oscar Bobb with a perfectly weighted clip in behind Kieran Trippier.

Two moments was all that he required to transform the game. City are now just two points behind leaders Liverpool.

Another Aston Villa stumble

When it has really mattered most, Aston Villa have struggled. The Villans have won just one of their last four Premier League matches and now find themselves just three points ahead of fifth-placed Spurs.

Had Unai Emery’s men won on Sunday, they would’ve been joint-top. It isn’t all doom and gloom at Villa Park, the fact they’re third after 21 matches is a huge achievement. But they have dropped points to bottom of the table Sheffield United and relegation-threatened Everton while giving up a 2-0 lead in a 3-2 loss to Manchester United in recent weeks.

It was a fairly even game against the Toffees on Sunday afternoon, though Villa dominated possession (62%). Both teams finished with a near identical xG though as well as carving out one big chance each.

The point for Everton could prove to be invaluable though as it keeps them one point clear of the relegation zone.

Spurs continue to impress

Tottenham Hotspur went to Old Trafford and were the better team against Manchester United. They aren’t the first team to do that this season and they won’t be the last. But it really hammered home how much of a transformation there’s been under Ange Postecoglou and how the Red Devils really aren’t anywhere near where they should be under Erik Ten Hag.

Rasmus Højlund fired the hosts ahead inside three minutes and Marcus Rashford restored the lead just before the break following Richarlison’s equaliser. Rodrigo Bentancur brought Spurs level just 50 seconds into the second half and the away side looked the most likely to net a winner.

They had more of the ball, more shots, significantly more shots on target, and an xG haul of almost double that of the hosts.

It wasn’t necessarily a deserved point for the hosts but they won’t care.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

FIVE games to follow this weekend: El Clásico, international tournaments, and more

In this weekend preview we summarise the best five games to follow on your match feed. And make a couple of suggestions for matches that you may otherwise miss.

By Bill Biss

🇪🇸 Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona

For the second season running, the Spanish football authorities have got what they envisioned when they devised the four-team format for the Supercopa de España: a bonus edition of El Clásico at an otherwise quiet time in the football calendar! That hasn’t always been the case in recent years, but by virtue of keeping the reigning league champions, and the holders of the Copa Del Rey holders in opposing semi-finals, we’ve got ourselves one of the biggest games in world football to look forward to on Sunday evening.

Real Madrid eventually came through a dramatic derby against rivals Atlético, played in host city Riyadh, on Wednesday night. That game finished 5-3 to Los Blancos, but only after extra-time, with Madrid’s goals coming from all over the park – Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Dani Carvajal, Joselu, and substitute Brahim Díaz were all on the scoresheet. That win took their unbeaten run to 20 games (all comps).

For their part, Barcelona put paid to a recent running gag in football folklore by ending their three month wait to win a game by more than a single goal, when they put two unanswered strikes past Osasuna, in their semi-final on Thursday evening.

Madrid won the corresponding final 3-1 last season, and they also beat Barcelona in their most recent competitive fixture, with Jude Bellingham scoring a brace in a LaLiga clash back in October.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Newcastle United vs. Manchester City

There’s a curtailed look about the Premier League fixtures this weekend, which is due to the league spreading Matchday 21 across two weekends, with the aim of giving each club a short winter break. But that still leaves us with five games to look forward to, and perhaps the pick of the two being played on Saturday comes at St. James’ Park.

Here, under pressure Newcastle boss Eddie Howe must raise his troops for what is always a battle, against Pep Guardiola’s World Club champions. Newcastle United did get one over their bitter rivals Sunderland in last weekend’s FA Cup tie but they are on an awful run in the league – the Magpies have lost five of their last seven dating back to the start of December.

City haven’t been at their most fluent this season but they are now unbeaten in eight (all comps), and they are back up to third in the table, five points down on leaders Liverpool, and still with a game in hand following their exploits at FIFA’s Club World Cup.

The two sides have met twice already this season – City coming out on top in the reverse league fixture, by one goal to nil, while Newcastle were responsible for City’s early exit from the Carabao Cup, by the same scoreline.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur

On Sunday, two more Premier League giants clash as Ange Postecoglou takes his Spurs side to Old Trafford, where they face another under pressure manager.

Erik ten Haag endured a 2023 where Manchester United lost more games than at any point since the mid-1970s but the Dutchman will be hoping, beyond hope, to turn the ship around in 2024. Things didn’t start smoothly, but United did enough to beat League One Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup last weekend, and they’ll be looking to build on that against a side who, despite everything, only sit eight points above them in the standings.

United’s nine defeats before Christmas may be a record, but by virtue of a lack of draws in their other fixtures, they remain just one win outside the top six.

Spurs, who’ve had a particularly active week in the transfer market – summed up here, come into the game off the back of consecutive wins over Bournemouth, in the league, and Burnley in the Cup. The London side have impressed under their Australian manager, playing a expansive game that sees them ranked as the third best Premier League side away from home, with the fourth best goals per game average, at 2.1 goals per game.

When these two met earlier in the season, Spurs ran out 2-0 comfortable winners, despite United having 22 shots and creating chances worth 2.07 xG.

🇪🇸 LaLiga: Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad

As perennial Copa Del Rey finalists, or thereabouts, Athletic Club have been involved in two of the last four Supercopa tournaments, but that’s not the case this year. So instead, LaLiga have lined up the Basque Derby for Saturday, keeping everybody entertained with another of the biggest games in the Spanish calendar, as they play host to Real Sociedad in Bilbao.

Both sides are on the charge this season, with Athletic currently sat in the top four, just three points down on third placed Barcelona, and La Real sat six points further back, in sixth. They have each lost just three games and have conceded the same amount of goals – 19 a piece (19 games). Only leaders Madrid, and strangely, mid-table Las Palmas can boast a better record.

Real Sociedad were comfortable winners last time the two sides met, eventually coming away with a 3-0 victory back in late September. But that appeared to be a wake up call for Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic side – they’ve lost just once in the 14 games they’ve played since then, keeping a clean sheet in six of their last seven.

This should be an intriguing contest in what is always a unique rivalry.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Bayern Munich vs. Hoffenheim

The ‘Winterpause’ is over and the Bundesliga returns this weekend! And in Friday night’s opening game, Bayern Munich are playing catch-up. When football stopped in Germany a few short weeks ago, the 11-time defending champions sat four points below unbeaten league leaders Bayer Leverkusen, with a game in hand.

The Bavarian giants can close the majority of that gap with a win on home soil but they’ll have to do so against a Hoffenheim side who themselves sit seventh in the table. Having enjoyed a solid start to the season TSG appear to be going through a rocky patch. They’ve won just two of their last 10 league and cup games and ended 2023 with a 3-3 draw against bottom side Darmstadt.

Bayern, thanks to the goals of Harry Kane, are the league’s top scorers – he has 21 of the club’s 49 scored in the league, and we’ll have to see whether his red-hot form continues now that he also has an old friend in the squad, with Eric Dier having joined Bayern, on loan, from Spurs during the week.

Plus two key fixtures to look out for at the major international tournaments starting this weekend…

🏆 AFCON 2023: Ivory Coast vs. Guinea-Bissau

Africa’s biggest national team tournament gets underway this weekend with hosts Ivory Coast taking on Guinea-Bissau in the opening game on Saturday. The tournament was held over from last year in order to take advantage of better weather in the region and the thinking is that Jean-Louis Gasset’s Elephants squad could just be one of the strongest nations taking part.

However, the AFCON is notoriously difficult to predict so we’ll wait to see how the other big teams start off in their group openers before passing too much comment. The likes of Nigeria, Egypt, and Ghana all feature on Sunday, with defending champions Senegal playing on Monday. For our full preview of the tournament, click – here.

🏆 Asian Cup 2023: Japan vs. Vietnam

Similarly, the 18th edition of the Asian Cup, the AFC federation’s flagship tournament for national teams, was also moved to 2024 in order to accommodate a change in host nation. Here, Qatar stepped in, as they have done for so many continental competitions run since the original COVID outbreak.

By the time you’ve read this, Qatar will have kicked off their curtain raiser against Lebanon on Friday. But on Sunday, Japan, the overwhelming favourites play their first fixture against Vietnam. The Samurai Blue come in to the tournament off the back of 10 straight wins, a run in which they’ve averaged over four goals per game, and that includes victories over Germany, Canada, Turkiye, and Peru.

For a more in-depth look at this tournament, check our full preview – here.

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Cover Image from IMAGO

Jan

2024

Premier League Preview: Matchday 21

We have a reduced schedule this weekend with matchday 21 being split over the next two weeks. There are five matches to be played across Friday, Saturday and Sunday though, so it is still a football-filled weekend if you’re a fan of the Premier League. With that in mind, let’s have a look at what to expect.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

A six-pointer at Turf Moor

Burnley host Luton Town on Friday night needing to avoid defeat.

Vincent Kompany’s men can move to within a point of the visitors with a win, something they have only managed once at home all season. Burnley rank bottom of the table when focusing on home form having taken three points from a possible 30.

In their last Premier League outing, they lost 3-2 to Aston Villa having conceded a last-minute penalty. However, the scoreline made the game seem much closer than it was. Unai Emery’s side deserved the win.

If they are to stand a chance against Luton, they are going to have to work on their defensive unit. Burnley are one of only two teams to have conceded 40 or more goals in the league this season.

The Hatters have been in decent form over recent weeks. They have won two of their last three and though they suffered a loss to Chelsea over the festive period, Rob Edwards’ side actually deserved to win that game. They had more of the ball, a higher Expected Goals haul and more big chances. A win on Friday evening would lift them out of the relegation zone.

Derby day at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea welcome near-neighbours Fulham to Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon knowing a win would take them up to eighth in the Premier League table. They are surprisingly going under the radar in recent weeks and victory against Marco Silva’s men would be their third on the bounce in the English top-flight.

As ever though, Mauricio Pochettino’s men are inconsistent. They lost mid-week in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Middlesbrough. Cole Palmer had a game to forget after missing a number of chances, so expect him to perform this weekend.

Fulham would move to within a point of Chelsea if they won at Stamford Bridge. If we’re being honest, the Cottagers have been fairly erratic this season. They’ll win a few and then go on a barren stretch. They beat Arsenal in their last Premier League match and did take the lead against Liverpool at Anfield in the Carabao Cup, only to lose 2-1 in the first-leg of the other semi-final that took place during the week.

You never really know what you are going to get and this is what makes this match-up such an intriguing one. Both teams can be devastating. Both can be frustrating. This could easily be 0-0 or 4-4.

Pressure at St James’ Park

Newcastle have won just two of their previous nine matches across all competitions. They did, however, have a confidence-boosting victory over Sunderland in their last outing to knock their rivals out of the FA Cup.

Despite this, Eddie Howe is still going to be under pressure. If results go against them this weekend, they will head into their mini-winter break in 11th position.

A positive result can’t be expected against Manchester City, but a positive performance is the bare minimum right now.

If City pick up maximum points, Pep Guardiola’s side move into second position in the Premier League, just two points behind leaders Liverpool. It is a remarkable situation to find themselves in after an inconsistent season marred by injuries to big players.

Last season, these two sides played out a spectacular 3-3 draw. In the match earlier this season, City edged it with a 1-0 win.

A big weekend for Aston Villa

Aston Villa could move to top spot in the Premier League with a win over Everton on Sunday.

Emery’s side have had a bit of a difficult couple of weeks. They dropped points to Sheffield United, lost 3-2 to Manchester United despite taking a 2-0 lead and needed a last-minute winner against Burnley.

And this has the potential to be another tricky game for the Villans.

The Toffees could start the game in the relegation zone. They are going to be heavily reliant on a raucous home crowd to be the 12th man. Since their four-game winning streak in early December, Everton are winless in five across all competitions. This could be a momentum shifter for the hosts if they get it right.

Old Trafford woes for Manchester United

Manchester United play host to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. Erik Ten Hag’s side have an awful home record this season having lost four of their 10 matches in the Premier League at Old Trafford.

Spurs have one of the best away records in the English top-flight having taken 18 points from 10 matches. Only Manchester City and Liverpool (19) have won more on the road. Ange Postecoglou’s men are going to fancy their chances against the Red Devils and who can blame them.

United are the lowest scorers in the top 10 (22 goals) while only Liverpool, Aston Villa and Manchester City have more goals than Spurs (42).

A win for Tottenham would see them finish the weekend ahead of rivals Arsenal.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Jan

2024

Liverpool may have just found another in-house solution in Conor Bradley

Conor Bradley made a statement with his first start filling in for the injured Trent Alexander-Arnold, with the challenge now to prove himself, as a long-term option for Liverpool.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

By his own admission, Jürgen Klopp long had plans in the works to introduce Conor Bradley to Liverpool’s first-team fold.

“I was waiting for the moment we could give him the opportunity,” he explained after the 2-1 win that opened their League Cup semi-final clashes with Fulham. Raising his hand above his head, the manager added: “I was already waiting for it, because when he got injured in pre-season my opinion about him was already here, then he was out for a pretty long time.”

After a breakout loan spell at Bolton Wanderers that saw him make 53 appearances, score seven goals, assist another six, lift the EFL Trophy at Wembley and win the club’s Player of the Season, Players’ Player of the Season and Young Player of the Season awards, the door was held wide open for the young right-back.

But a consequence of his key role, which saw him clock more minutes for club and country than any other teenager in world football throughout 2022/23, was an increased load on his body, which resulted in a stress fracture in his back during pre-season.

By that point, Bradley had already given a glimpse of his abilities in early friendly appearances in Trent Alexander-Arnold’s hybrid role at right-back, but it is not until now, fully fit and with Liverpool’s first choice out for at least three weeks, the Northern Ireland international is getting his chance.

Having come off the bench to great effect alongside fellow academy youngster Bobby Clark in the FA Cup third-round win over Arsenal three days previous, Bradley was then trusted to start in a major semi-final.

The 20-year-old responded emphatically, with an all-action display that only improved as the 90-plus minutes wore on at Anfield, largely shackling experienced Willian and helping to pin back the dangerous Antonee Robinson.

In a game that they dominated, with 67 percent possession and 21 shots to Fulham’s six, Bradley made more defensive actions than any other Liverpool player, with eight. He went in for six tackles and won six, while winning the joint-most duels for either side alongside midfielder João Palhinha with 10. He created the joint-most chances for either side, with two, recorded a respectable passing accuracy of 88 percent, and produced by far the highest tally of xA with 0.5.

It was a brave and expansive performance from a young player whose only previous start this season was a difficult night in the 2-1 loss to Union SG in December, with few, if any, left ruing the absence of Alexander-Arnold.

That is the highest praise Bradley could have hoped for, and the challenge now will be for him to build on that after the Premier League’s winter break, with the No. 66 still set to miss at least three more games including the second-leg trip to Fulham.

In his four-and-a-half years at Liverpool so far, the right-back from County Tyrone has shown no sign that he would baulk under the pressure of filling in for a player he described, in his post-match interview with LFCTV, as “probably the best right-back in the world at the minute, if not the best player in the world the way he’s playing.”

A boyhood Liverpool fan, Bradley first emerged on the club’s radar around the age of 12, having been fast-tracked through development within the Irish FA while on the books at local side St Patrick’s FC. A move to Dungannon Swifts came in 2016 and then, after a trial set up through the club’s academy connections in Belfast, he eventually earned a two-year scholarship with the Reds upon turning 16.

He made swift progress through the youth ranks, while being given an early taste of first-team training during the final stages of pre-season in 2020, before five senior appearances in the 2021/22 campaign. Starting against Norwich, Leicester and Shrewsbury in the cups and coming off the bench against AC Milan in the Champions League at the San Siro will have been the carrot Bradley needed, and he firmly grasped that with his remarkable spell at Bolton.

Like centre-back Jarell Quansah, who spent the second half of last season on loan at Bristol Rovers before returning as a genuine option, Bradley’s time in League One appears to have steeled him for the rigours of first-team football at Liverpool.

Though there are similarities to Alexander-Arnold – as shown during pre-season – the 13-cap international is more like a right-sided version of Andy Robertson: the straightforward, all-action left-back whose relentless energy, tenacity and flexibility have made him one of Klopp’s most important players.

Against Fulham, Bradley showcased a range of different deliveries, including a low, guided cross that almost laid Darwin Núñez on for a tap-in until it was blocked at the last second, while the youngster was also happy to drive towards the byline or cut inside and into the box, with a cheeky nutmeg on Palhinha late on earning Liverpool a dangerous free-kick.

Those qualities will make him a popular figure among fans and Klopp’s coaching staff alike, with the hope being that he can prove in these coming games that he is here to stay.

There is even a school of thought that, if Bradley does excel as hoped, it could facilitate a long-term move into midfield for Alexander-Arnold, who has not been shy in admitting his belief that he is now better suited to a central role that accentuates his range of passing.

Of course, that may be far in the distance at this stage, but for Bradley, it will be the ultimate goal.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Jan

2024

Exequiel Palacios: The unsung hero in Leverkusen’s Bundesliga title challenge

There is plenty to be said about Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen this season in the Bundesliga. The only team across the top five European leagues that are still unbeaten, the team’s collective success has been fueled by excellent players across each department.

With so much individual brilliance in the side, one player whose contributions may have been overshadowed by others is Argentina international, Exequiel Palacios. What makes him essential for Alonso’s Die Werkself?

By Ninad Barbadikar

Now entering his fifth season at the BayArena, 24-year-old Palacios is finally getting a consistent run in the side under Alonso, after previously being in and out of the side due to injuries.

He has started 14 of the 15 games in the Bundesliga this season and has formed a formidable partnership with Granit Xhaka at the heart of Leverkusen’s midfield.

The most impressive thing about Palacios is his willingness to receive the ball and even demand it in tight situations. His traits radar reflects as much, placing him in the 99th percentile for touches amongst his positional peers in the European leagues.

Whilst Xhaka is the more expansive out of the two in Leverkusen’s double pivot, Palacios is an intense presser out of possession and uncompromising in his defensive duties. The Argentinian comfortably completes a high volume of defensive actions, making him the perfect complement to someone like Xhaka.

There is an almost telepathic understanding between the two of when to push and when to hold and which spaces to occupy depending on where they are on the pitch.

Palacios explained as much, speaking to Bundesliga.com, and said, “If he steps out of position, I know I need to move in. If I go, he comes. Or we pass between ourselves. And the coach is saying all week that we need to be together, need to combine passes, that the ball and the play needs to go through us a lot.”

“Without even talking much to Granit, I think it just needs a look and we know each other well. Playing alongside a player with such a big career, it always makes you better.”

Palacios is just as reliable as Xhaka in possession of the ball and keeps Alonso-ball ticking against opposition pressure. The Argentine is particularly adept at breaking opposition lines of pressure with his passes from the middle third, finding the likes of flair player Florian Wirtz and striker Victor Boniface in space, for them to turn and hurt defences on the break.

Palacios features in the top three for accurate passes per 90, Bundesliga-wide, with only his partner, Xhaka, and Bayern’s Kim Min-Jae having averaged more than the Argentine this season. He is in the 80th percentile or above across a number of passing metrics and has even contributed three assists for his Leverkusen team-mates, all the more notable when you consider his role in Alonso’s system.

We spoke about the volume of his defensive work earlier, but Palacios has averaged a healthy 3.34 tackles plus interceptions per 90 this term. The former River Plate man has an eye for anticipating danger and putting out fires before they spread, making him an invaluable asset deeper in Leverkusen’s own half but also higher up the pitch.

Die Werkself have averaged a league-high 7.1 possessions won in the final third per 90, and a big part of that counter-pressing effort is the work-rate of the likes of Palacios, who himself has averaged 0.96 possessions won in the final third. He is always on the move.

One underrated aspect of Palacios’ play is his ability to navigate the ball through tight spaces with his dribbling. Clearly he isn’t a high volume dribbler as such, averaging 0.89 successful dribbles per 90, with a success rate of 85.7%.

What Palacios does do well with his dribbling prowess is draw fouls from opposition attackers to buy Alonso’s side time on the ball to reset and go again. An average of 2.75 fouls won per 90 places him in the 97th percentile, a figure you would expect to see from a dribbler who forces their marker to commit each time they attempt a take-on.

With Palacios, he uses his body really well to shield the ball and in doing so, draws fouls from his opponents. In fact, with 37 fouls drawn so far this season, Palacios has drawn more fouls than any other player in the Bundesliga.

For now, it looks like Palacios will be difficult to take away from Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen side. The 25-year-old is having his best season to date and is benefitting from remaining injury-free and therefore getting consistent minutes to show what he’s all about.

Expect Europe’s elite to come knocking on the doors of the BayArena sooner rather than later.

(Images from IMAGO)

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