Page 82 – The Pulse of Football

Feb

2024

The Serie A title is Inter’s to lose

Inter’s win over Juventus in the Serie A last weekend helped them go four points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand. While that makes Simone Inzaghi’s side the favourites to win the league, there are other reasons why the Nerazzurri stand out in the race for the Scudetto.

By Kaustubh Pandey

Over the last few seasons, Inter have been one of the most consistent teams in Serie A. While the likes of Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Roma, Atalanta, and Lazio have not always qualified for the Champions League, Inter have been a regular fixture in the top four, even under different managers. Despite financial troubles, they’ve always managed to plod along well, relying on Beppe Marotta’s brilliant use of limited resources and recruitment.

This season was going to be a challenge for the Nerazzurri, as they lost Romelu Lukaku to what fans would still consider a betrayal, and André Onana joined Manchester United. Edin Džeko left for Turkey and Milan Škriniar joined Paris Saint-Germain on a free transfer. It is possible that any other club would have struggled under the burden of those losses. But not Inter, who have actually improved.

They have shown signs of being a superclub, as they recruited brilliantly and operate as a well-oiled machine on the pitch under Inzaghi, whose reliance on a system compensates for the loss of famed names. There are many reasons why Inter may not be ‘pazza’ anymore and why the title is now theirs to lose.

Strength in depth

One benefit of recruiting brilliantly is depth. Inter have a fair amount of it. Yann Sommer, who has taken to Inter like duck to water, has the Serie A experienced Emil Audero as his deputy, as both joined in the summer.

They have as many as six options for the back three and while Škriniar left, Benjamin Pavard and Yann Bisseck arrived and they can easily deputise on the right side of the back three. Bisseck, in fact, can play centrally and on the left. Matteo Darmian has proved to be a very important versatile option too. Stefan de Vrij is still going strong and the ever-improving Alessandro Bastoni and veteran Francesco Acerbi have always played reliably in the left centre-back berth.

In midfield, Hakan Çalhanoğlu has become one of the best defensive midfielders in the world, replacing Marcelo Brozović. Nicolo Barella continues to improve and Henrikh Mkhitaryan is still performing at the highest level. While Çalhanoğlu and Barella are fairly versatile, summer signings Davy Klaasen and Davide Frattesi provide options. The Italian’s prominence will only grow and the same can be said for Kristjan Asllani, who is yet to fully come into his own.

Stefano Sensi’s move to Leicester City didn’t go through on deadline day in January and he could also add valuable depth. Inzaghi is also blessed to have four options for the front two – the mercurial Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram, followed by summer signings and veterans Alexis Sánchez and Marko Arnautović.

This is the sort of squad depth Inter built through the summer and it is something other Serie A clubs, with their tight finances, can only dream of.

A firing front two

A case can be made of the fact that Juve’s pairing of Dušan Vlahović and Federico Chiesa, or the Serbian and young Kenan Yıldız, might rival them for quality, but Inter’s Martínez and Thuram are leading the way.

Thuram has been one of the best signings in Europe this season. Having arrived on a free transfer after his contract at Borussia Mönchengladbach ran out, he rejected Milan to join Inter and he has combined with Martínez exceptionally. He runs the channels brilliantly, helping Martínez take up vital positions in the box.

They are in the top three for goal contributions this season, suggesting how well they don’t just combine with each other but with the rest of the side. It also points towards a system, which relies on going through build-up play quickly and players operating in a fluid manner in the final third.

The duo are also the top two for xG generated, something clearly showing that the system benefits them and their strengths, without necessarily building the whole system around their profiles.

A starring defence and attack

Looking at the numbers that Martínez and Thuram are piling up would suggest that Inter are a defensive force, as they have generated an xG which is way better than anyone else in the league.

But they have overperformed on that, scoring 51 times. And defensively, they are second in the table behind Juve for xG conceded, their defensive record is much superior than the Bianconeri in terms of actual goals conceded.

Inzaghi’s side have let in only ten goals in the entire season and that is the best defensive record in the top five European leagues. That shows how complete the Nerazzurri are as a unit, impressing upfront and at the back, over-performing on their xG numbers by a good margin.

That is also an ode to a rather rigid and structured defensive setup used by Inzaghi, who he’s always been known to use since his Lazio days, as he guided even the Biancocelesti to silverware.

Inzaghi’s tactical flexibility

Inzaghi has been at Inter for about three seasons now and has won the Coppa Italia and the Supercoppa Italiana, while having played in the Champions League final. It says a lot about the Italian, who stepped in at the club after Antonio Conte left. For Inter, it was a case of carrying forward the same formation under Inzaghi, who has used a 3-5-2 since his time at Lazio.

Despite his adherence to a very Conte-esque shape, Inzaghi is far from being as rigid as the ex-Tottenham boss. And that was seen rather prominently last season, when Inter had a barren spell in 2023. They had lost to Monza, Spezia, Juventus, Fiorentina and Bologna, bringing about doubts regarding whether they would even make it to the top four. Uncertainty had grown about Inzaghi’s long-term future too.

But just in time, the Piacenza-born manager made a change. While he was initially insistent on using a more possession-based approach, he resorted to being more direct to the front two, which led to Martínez and Romelu Lukaku firing again. Because of that, Çalhanoğlu became a defensive midfielder and Darmian became a vital option on the right side of the backline.

This flexibility puts Inzaghi in good stead and the same can be said of Stefano Pioli, but while Milan remain plagued by inconsistency this season, Inter are anything but.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from Serie A on FotMob, with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

The brutal race for two play-off spots in the Championship and why Norwich City could be biggest winners

Often referred to as the most most expensive game in football, the Championship play-off final is certainly up there with the most dramatic, the most eagerly-anticipated and, depending on the side you happen to be on, the most brutal.

By Karl Matchett

Plenty of teams have gone into the playoffs thinking they have the impetus, the know-how or the outright quality, but have been done over by the occasion, the Wembley pitch…or just by a team they’ve already beaten twice that season being better than them on the day.

It can be a soul-crushing affair, a 49th match of an arduous campaign in England’s second tier where a club who missed out on automatic promotion only on goal difference can still find themselves facing another year below the Premier League in the most incredible and heartbreaking of fashions.

But before worrying about whether they’ll turn up for the big occasion, clubs have to actually get there first. And to do that, even the teams currently in the running for a late-season charge have to barge half the table out of the way.

That’s how matters look right now once again: Leicester are clear at the top, Southampton, Leeds and Ipswich are – for now – a distant second to fourth, one eventually to end up automatically up and the other two, barring a total collapse, occupying two of the four play-off spots. But after that, it’s anybody’s to fight for. From West Brom in fifth to Cardiff in 12th, just eight points separate nine teams, with only two places likely up for grabs. Dogfight doesn’t even begin to do it justice, and the second tier has a remarkable tendency to see a team from the bottom half surge up the table in the last four months of the season to sneak a top-six finish.

Typically, the Championship is a tight-fought league, hard to escape and harder to find real consistency in. Consider this: none of the quartet of clubs who ended up in the play-off places last season won even half of their fixtures. That explains much about the relegation rate straight back down: When teams do escape and head up to the Premier League, imagine how difficult it is to win ten fixtures against the very best, after only winning 20 against those ranked 21st to 44th.

West Brom, Hull, Coventry, Sunderland, Norwich, Preston, Watford, Middlesbrough and Cardiff: of the nine, only North End have never played in the top flight during the Premier League era. Three of them ended up on the sore side of the play-off fight last year and will have that mental reminder of the all-or-nothing scenario to deal with in another dozen games or so, either spurring them on to a final push or perhaps leaving some feeling flat at the knowledge that they face only a slim chance of success once more.

As for picking a potential candidate for eventual celebration, it might well be that Norwich City, currently in ninth and yet only one point off the pace, are a smart pick.

The Canaries suffered some atrocious results at the start of the campaign and have been playing catchup, but they’ve been doing so at some pace. Of their last 15 league games, they’ve lost only four, all of them on the road.

They have the sixth-best home record, almost always a vital source of points for finishing in the play-off places, and are unbeaten at Carrow Road since early November. Admittedly, the January departure of Adam Idah robs them of some goal threat, but he was a rotation player at best all the same and his consistency was questionable. Further, Norwich rank sixth for goals scored per match, outperforming their season-long xG – though to balance that, we must also note that on the xG alternative table, they’d be a lowly 13th right now.

But the trend is upwards all the same. A second half of the season improvement is far better than starting fast and fading faster – as looks the danger with rivals Ipswich just now, coincidentally.

And the architect of this rise over the past few months? David Wagner, a man who has very much been here before. He led Huddersfield out of the Championship and into the top flight in 2016/17, and kept them there the following year. He knows his way out of the division, and how to knit teams together to fight for a common cause.

Results and performances haven’t been perfect, and Norwich’s defence certainly needs a significant amount of work still. But this is a league which can forgive for errors which turn draws into defeats, as long as you keep attacking them and turn others into wins. Norwich, with fewer draws than any top-half team other than the league leaders, might be on the late path to the play-offs thanks to Wagner’s approach.

(Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from all three EFL divisions – with xG, deep stats, and players ratings on FotMob. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

FIVE games to follow this weekend: Potential title deciders, Continental Finals, and more

In this weekend preview we summarise the best five games to follow on your match feed. And make a couple of suggestions for matches that you may otherwise miss.

By Bill Biss

🇪🇸 LaLiga: Real Madrid vs. Girona

Saturday brings us the Spanish showdown we’ve all been waiting for, as the two frontrunners in LaLiga meet at the Bernabéu. Nobody expected Girona to maintain their early season form, but here we are 23 rounds in to the season and the Catalonian club are still flying high, two points down on, but outscoring leaders Real Madrid.

In fact, their one defeat of the season came back in September, when Madrid put them to the sword 3-0 on their home patch. Girona have only failed to score in two other league games this season, once against winless Almería, with the other coming last weekend when they were held to a goalless draw by Real Sociedad.

Madrid weren’t able to fully capitalise on their rivals dropping points, though, as they completed the recent series of three derbies played against Atlético Madrid in the space of three weeks, with a 1-1 draw. Atlético landing a late sucker punch with the equaliser coming in the 93rd minute.

That result put an end to Madrid’s six game winning streak in the league. A win on Saturday, though, would put them five points clear, but if Girona were instead able to claim maximum points, that would completely change the complexion of this exciting title race once more.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich

There’s also another huge top of the table clash in Germany on Saturday. In fact, the much anticipated battle between Leverkusen and Bayern kicks off at the exact same time as the game in Madrid. Lucky then, that you are learning that from your favourite football app – where you’ll also be able to check the TV listings, and make a decision on which match to watch, and which match to follow on FotMob.

Here, the difference between the top two is also two points, with Leverkusen still unbeaten and holding the advantage coming into the weekend. The leaders can also boast the tightest defence in the league having conceded five goals less than the visitors. And if it wasn’t for the goals of Harry Kane (24 and counting), they’d probably also be outscoring Bayern too.

As it stands though, Bayern come in to the game having won their last three, following January’s shock defeat at Werder Bremen. Kane has scored in two of those victories as the Bavarian giants have notched up another seven goals in the For column. They will also be the more rested of the two sides as Leverkusen played out a gruelling 3-2 comeback win over Stuttgart in the quarter-finals of the DFB Pokal on Tuesday night.

That result meant that Leverkusen are now unbeaten in 30 domestic games, a run that puts them within touching distance of Bayern’s all-time German record. As if the away side needed any more motivation to go out and win Saturday’s crucial meeting between the two!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Manchester City vs. Everton

Saturday also provides us with two intriguing battles in the Premier League title race. Especially with current chasers Manchester City having the opportunity to move above Liverpool, should they beat the Reds city rivals, Everton, in the day’s early kick-off.

Since their slight wobble, when City failed to win four league games in a row as November turned to December, Pep Guardiola’s defending champions have quietly got about their business: Winning the FIFA Club World Cup and then, following their return, winning seven straight games in domestic league and cup action. That run now puts them in the position to overhaul Liverpool, having already gone level on points with Arsenal, perhaps the other serious rival in this title race.

Everton come in to the game sat in the relegation zone, one point off safety, pending the result of their appeal against the 10-point deduction currently standing against them. The Toffees only win this year came in the FA Cup and they’ve drawn their last three league games.

City ran out 3-1 winners at Goodison Park over the festive period with Phil Foden on form in that game, just as he was when he bagged a hat-trick against Brentford, last Monday night.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Liverpool vs. Burnley

As soon as City vs. Everton is over, it’s time for Jürgen Klopp’s side to respond, as the Reds host relegation threatened Burnley, at Anfield, in a Saturday afternoon kick-off.

Liverpool will be looking to bounce back from last week’s humbling 3-1 defeat at Arsenal. But having not lost at home in any competition all season the current league leaders should be confident of doing so. Only Man City have scored more goals than Liverpool in the division (54 to 52) and only Arsenal can match their defensive record (22 goals conceded, 8 clean sheets), but the Merseysiders have looked to have the edge in terms of grinding out points.

Burnley currently sit second bottom of the table having struggled following their promotion back to the top flight. They are winless in their last five league games, a run that started with a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Boxing Day, but there have been some sides of encouragement for Vincent Kompany’s side. They have, for instance, scored four goals in their last three games, and they recovered from 2-0 down to claim a point against Fulham last weekend, with new signing David Datro Fofana scoring twice.

The on-loan Chelsea man has three goal contributions in the 58 minutes he’s played in a claret and blue shirt, and Burnley will need him to continue his impressive start if they hope to get anything out of this game.

🇮🇹 Serie A: Roma vs. Inter

Last weekend may well have been the defining point of this Serie A season as Inter gave themselves a four point advantage over Juventus thanks to a 1-0 win over their nearest rivals. Having lost once in the league all season, and conceded just 10 goals over 22 rounds, Inter also have a game in hand up Simone Inzaghi’s sleeve.

As we argued during the week, this current Inter team might be the most underrated elite side in European football at the moment – click here for more on that.

Now though, Inter must back up that prevailing line of thought, as they travel to Roma on Saturday evening. The Giallorossi are in a state of flux having dismissed much loved coach José Mourinho and replaced him with the even more loved, but untested in a coaching sense, club legend Daniele de Rossi.

But all has gone relatively well under De Rossi so far, with three wins from three, albeit all three coming against sides currently sat in the bottom four. That run has moved Roma up to fifth and one point off the all-important fourth Champions League spot, occupied by Atalanta.

This though, should provide the new coach with a real test.

Plus two further suggestions, as you don’t want to miss the two major finals taking place over the weekend…

🏆 AFCON 2023: Nigeria vs. Ivory Coast

Sunday sees the climax to what many have argued has been the most exciting Africa Cup of Nations in memory. But despite all the shocks, all the spills, and all the near-misses, managerial sackings, and penalty shoot-outs, we’ve actually ended up with two giants of African football in the showpiece game.

Hosts Ivory Coast have gone through the lot to make it this far, including a 1-0 defeat to Nigeria, back on Matchday 2 in the Group Stages. Captain William Troost-Ekong scored from the penalty spot in that game, something he also did in regular time in Nigeria’s semi-final victory over South Africa, a game that was eventually decided by further penalties.

The Super Eagles had kept four straight clean sheets prior to what ended as a 1-1 draw in the final four and look the most solid team at the tournament. The same can’t be said for the Ivory Coast, with the 1-0 win over DR Congo, in their semi-final, being their most straight-forward result so far.

This game is hard to call, with Nigeria looking stronger, but the Elephants do have the prospect of a victory on home soil to inspire them, and the backing of a whole country that are ready to party.

🏆 Asian Cup 2023: Jordan vs. Qatar

On Saturday, at the Asian Cup, it’s a different matter. Here, Qatar, the tournament hosts, will start as the overwhelming favourites against Jordan, a nation who are playing in their first ever major final.

Prior to their midweek victory over South Korea, they’d never previously reached a semi-final in the Asian Cup, so the playing squad have already written themselves in to the footballing history of their nation. We weren’t supposed to have two Arab countries contesting the final, not with pre-tournament favourites Japan in form, and the aforementioned South Korea also looking well placed. But here we are!

In the knockout stages, Jordan have been underdogs against Iraq, Tajikistan, and South Korea, but they’ve beaten them all, and all in regulation time. They might just fancy repeating the trick against the defending champions.

Qatar, though, have also exceeded pre-tournament expectations, and they have only got stronger as the competition has progressed. Their semi-final being a case in point, where they triumphed over Iran despite conceding an early goal, and then being pegged back to 2-2 early in the second half. A goal from Almoez Ali eventually saw them though in a five-goal thriller.

If you want to follow any of the games mentioned above, click on the relevant link and tap the bell icon to receive all the key match updates.

Or join our new WhatsApp Channel for updates on all the important football going on this weekend!

Images from IMAGO

Feb

2024

Artem Dovbyk: Girona’s Ukrainian Goal-Machine

Girona FC have been the talk of the town in La Liga this season, for a number of reasons; Coach Michel’s tactics, the resurgence of players like Daley Blind combined with the underdog narrative that has seen them become the neutral’s favourite.

By Ninad Barbadikar

Their on-field achievements are fueled by the smart methodologies and structure deployed by the City Football Group that backs them, which has allowed them to recruit shrewdly. One of those shrewd recruits is the striker Artem Dovbyk, who currently sits atop the LaLiga scoring charts alongside Jude Bellingham and Getafe’s Borja Mayoral.

A tally of fourteen goals from 17 starts in the league is a hugely impressive return from the Ukraine international. At the age of 26, he is entering his prime years and is enjoying a successful first season in the Top Five leagues.

It has been a long wait for Dovbyk to make it to the top leagues, starting his career with FC Dnipro in the Ukrainian top flight. A transfer to Midtjylland would follow but a three-year-spell at the Danish outfit was mired by injuries for Dovbyk, paving the way for a return to Ukraine at SK Dnipro-1.

There, his 44 goals in 68 starts was enough to convince Girona to part with a club record fee of €7.5m for his services last summer. Safe to say, it has worked out extremely well for them and Dovbyk.

Watching Dovbyk go about his business for Girona on the pitch, it is difficult to not think of the similarities to Manchester City’s Erling Haaland. Much like the Norwegian, Dovbyk is a powerful runner, standing at 189cm in height, he is not the easiest to mark for centre-backs in LaLiga.

The Ukrainian is extremely athletic for his size and is excellent at timing his runs in behind the opposition centre-backs. Staying high and central to capitalise on passes from deep from the likes of Blind and Aleix García, Dovbyk’s involvement in possession is limited but that’s not because of his inability to contribute.

To the contrary, he is quite efficient with his touches and holds up the ball expertly to link-up with the likes of Savio and his compatriot Viktor Tsygankov in wide areas. In Michel’s 4-2-3-1, Dovbyk has forged a telepathic chemistry with both of those wide men, making himself a magnet for their crosses into the box, thanks to his seemingly unstoppable ability in the air.

As his player traits radar suggests, Dovbyk’s strongest asset is undoubtedly his ability to score goals, but the far more interesting bit is how well he executes in the penalty area.

50 shots attempted in the league so far and 52% of them on target, Dovbyk knows how to keep defences on their toes.

45 of those shots have come from inside the penalty area, like any good striker, Dovbyk has an eye for the spaces to occupy in the box and from there, it is a question of finishing, which, as his goal return suggests, he has no problem with.

Nearly half of his headers this season have been on target as well, generating a return of five goals from 21 headed attempts, Dovbyk uses his frame superbly to get the jump on keepers at point blank range and dispatch the crosses that come his way.

The natural assumption with strikers of Dovbyk’s ilk is that they are not useful contributors outside of the box, but that doesn’t hold true for the Girona man. Dovbyk is an intelligent presser off the ball, and can also be seen dropping off from the frontlines to aid his team when they are under a high press. His touches whilst receiving passes can sometimes be erratic, but he does the right thing more often than not.

The underlying numbers speak for themselves in Dovbyk’s case. He is outstanding at generating quality chances on a regular basis, as evidenced by his Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG) figure of 0.58 per 90, placing him in the 89th percentile of his positional peers across the top European leagues.

Averaging some eight touches in the penalty area per 90, Dovbyk’s first-rate underlying numbers are no coincidence, he is the final piece of Girona’s attacking puzzle under Michel. He ticks a lot of boxes in what you look for from a number nine for the top sides. It would be no surprise to see bigger teams come knocking at Girona’s doors for his services in the summer.

Sidelined with a knee injury until March, Dovbyk will have to watch on from the sidelines as Michel tries to sustain the title charge without his star striker. He has dealt with injuries in the past and bounced back stronger. If all goes well, he could put the cherry on top of the cake of a historic LaLiga success.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game in LaLiga live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

Premier League Preview: Matchday 24

A lot could change this weekend in the Premier League. When Matchday 24 comes to an end on Monday evening, one of three clubs could top the table while one of four clubs could join Burnley and Sheffield United in the relegation zone. We’re getting to the point of the campaign where a single point can make a huge difference. Here’s our preview of the key fixtures.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

The champions can go top

Manchester City had a bit of a wobble in November. They drew three games on the bounce before a loss to Aston Villa. This patch of form arrived just a month after back-to-back defeats in the English top-flight.

Some started to doubt whether they had the desire or the fight to go again following their treble success of 2022/23. They’ve answered that, rather emphatically, over recent weeks and are currently on a five-match winning streak in the Premier League. They host Everton on Saturday afternoon knowing a win would see them leapfrog Liverpool into top spot.

Pep Guardiola’s men are unbeaten against Everton in their last 14 meetings, with 12 wins and two draws. They are going to be firm favourites heading into this game against the out-of-form Toffees. Sean Dyche’s side haven’t scored in their last three away fixtures and are six games without a win in the Premier League. A win, however, would temporarily lift them out of the relegation zone. Stranger things have happened this season.

Brighton plagued by inconsistency

Believe it or not, but Brighton have won just two of their last eight matches in the Premier League. Yet a win here could see them move up to sixth in the table. Roberto De Zerbi’s side recorded a 4-1 win over Crystal Palace in their last outing. Prior to that, their last win in the English top tier was in December and it arrived against Spurs, with the Seagulls romping to a 4-2 win.

The two sides meet again on Saturday with Brighton making the trip to London.

Tottenham would move into fourth spot with a win and do head into this game in decent form, although they did draw their most recent game against Everton. This game sees two in-form strikers face off in Richarlison and João Pedro. These two could be the deciding factors in this game, as has been in the case in a number of matches recently.

Interestingly, there hasn’t been a draw between these two teams in their last 12 meetings. Perhaps that record comes to an end on Saturday.

A real six-pointer

Luton host Sheffield United knowing a win keeps them out of the relegation zone with a game in hand. Rob Edwards’ side will be full of confidence too following a 4-0 win over Brighton and a 4-4 draw with Newcastle United. The Hatters are currently on a three-match unbeaten run and this form has seen them leapfrog their way out of the bottom three.

By comparison, Sheffield United are winless in seven matches in the Premier League now following their 5-0 loss to Aston Villa last weekend. Their last win arrived in December and they are finding it difficult defensively.

Chris Wilder’s men have conceded 18 goals in their previous seven games in the English top-flight and have just one clean sheet to their name all season.

A loss doesn’t condemn them to the drop but it does leave them in a precarious predicament with just 10 points from 24 matches. You could argue that this is a must-win for the Blades. Luton have a bit of breathing space but will want to extend their good run and further distance themselves from the bottom three.

Can Arsenal deal with the pressure?

Are the celebration police going to be making another appearance this weekend?

Arsenal travel to West Ham United this weekend looking to make it four wins on the spin in the Premier League. The Gunners dismantled Liverpool last Sunday and, if results go their way over the weekend, they could finish Matchday 24 in top spot. They could also end joint-top or even in third place. It shows how tight it is right now.

The Hammers have caused Mikel Arteta’s side some problems in recent meetings. In fact, they have won the last two clashes between the two teams. They were humbled by Manchester United in their last outing though. And Arsenal do have an impressive away record, ranking third for points won away from the Emirates this season.

The Gunners have had no issues stepping it up in big games this term, their problem has been in games they are expected to win. This might actually be more of a test for them, at least mentally, than it was to face Jürgen Klopp’s men last weekend. If they pick up maximum points, they might have the mental fortitude to go the distance this season.

Boxing day revenge

Aston Villa stunned Old Trafford on Boxing Day, taking a 2-0 lead in the first half only to lose 3-2. Unai Emery’s side will want to exorcise some demons in this clash as they welcome the Red Devils to Villa Park on Sunday.

Their last outing at home wasn’t a memorable one as their 17-match unbeaten run at Fortress Villa Park came to an abrupt end against Newcastle United. They’ll be looking to kickstart a new run and doing so against Manchester United would be quite a statement. It would also allow them to keep pace with what is going on at the top of the Premier League table.

United have won back-to-back games in the English top-flight and now find themselves in sixth position. Remarkably, they are just eight points behind Villa. Erik Ten Hag has actually won his previous three clashes with the Villans, so it might not be as straightforward as some people expect it to be.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

5 big teams around Europe suffering a terrible 2023/24

It’s getting towards that time of year again: trophies are on the horizon and the biggest clubs around the continent will have their eyes on prizes, be they domestic or European, cup or league. There are few surprises these days in who the eventual winners are across the top five divisions in the game – but that doesn’t mean no surprises at all.

By Karl Matchett

In fact, for a handful of clubs there are some extremely unexpected outlooks for the remainder of 2023/24 – but not because they are gearing up to challenge their rivals and get their hands on silverware.

Instead, here we’re looking at Europe’s biggest underperformers, the clubs who cannot wait for the campaign to end and are just, in some cases, merely hoping they see it out while holding on to their top flight status.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea, Premier League

We start off in England and, unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll probably already know that Chelsea are under their second permanent manager since the Todd Boehly-led takeover 20 months ago and that they’ve spent over £1bn in the transfer market since then.

Top four and trophies, then? Not quite. Mauricio Pochettino has been unable to turn the Blues around, currently sat in the bottom half of the Premier League table with a negative goal difference and fewer points than the likes of Wolves, Brighton and an injury-hit Newcastle side.

The one potential bright spot is an upcoming League Cup Final against Liverpool – though they were beaten 4-1 by the same opponents only a week ago.

🇮🇹 Lazio, Serie A

At the back end of last season, everything looked positive for Lazio. They finished the campaign with three straight wins to beat Inter Milan into the runners-up spot, their first year in Serie A’s top two since their infamous league and cup double season of 1999-2000.

Onward and upward, then? Of course not.

A wildly inconsistent start to this year sees them languishing in mid-table, ninth after 22 games and with fewer wins than city rivals Roma – who recently dispensed with manager José Mourinho.

A fairly tight top half from fourth to tenth means that all isn’t yet lost for the campaign, while there’s also a Champions League last-16 encounter with Bayern Munich to look forward to.

But unless Maurizio Sarri can drastically improve matters, it looks like this version of Lazio will amount to a one-season wonder.

🇪🇸 Sevilla, LaLiga

If Chelsea, as former European champions, are suffering a bad couple of years then spare a thought for Sevilla. They might have won the Europa League again last season but the domestic drop-off was huge – and is even worse this time around.

Until a Monday night win at Rayo Vallecano, Sevilla were only outside the relegation zone on goal difference and had won just three LaLiga games all season.

They’ve given themselves breathing space to the bottom three now, but that’s as good as it gets for a dreadful campaign: lost the Super Cup, finished last in their Champions League group without a single victory, knocked out of the Copa del Rey and no league wins to celebrate at home since September.

🇩🇪 Union Berlin, Bundesliga

Perhaps it’s harsh to single out Union Berlin for falling short this year after such a wonderful 23/24 campaign, but the scale of it warrants inclusion.

Having upset the odds to finish fourth in last year’s Bundesliga, qualifying for the Champions League in the process, they then proceeded to start this term with three straight victories and all looked rosy once more.

Then it began. A 3-0 home reversal to RB Leipzig sparked a run of 12 straight matches suffering defeat, saw the manager sacked and the team’s position plummet. Union went a total of 16 games without a win from the end of August to mid-December, and while they have just about kept their heads above the relegation zone, it’s not by much.

Three points and one place currently separates them from the relegation play-off spot, with a 1-1 draw in the midweek clash away to Mainz – currently below them – something of a missed opportunity to give themselves some leeway in the battle to survive the drop.

🇫🇷 Lyon, Ligue 1

And finally to France, where Lyon perhaps claim top billing as a former giant suffering a dismal season – though, we should note, only thanks to Ajax finally turning around their own form in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Lyon, however, have done no such thing. They sit 15th in Ligue 1, similarly to Union only above the relegation play-off spot by a single position, winning only one of their first 14 games of 23/24 and looking in real peril.

Laurent Blanc was dismissed in September; his replacement Fabio Grosso lasted just over two months in the job. Since mid-December their third boss of the season, Pierre Sage, has managed to oversee an upturn in fortunes to give Les Gones some hope of a revival, but it’s a long way back to the days of seven straight titles from 2002 onwards, or even to a pair of top-three finishes as recently as 2018 and 2019.

(Image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

Africa Cup of Nations Semi-finals Review: Nigeria and Ivory Coast set up a rematch

The greatest edition of the African Cup of Nations looks set to have a spectacular conclusion. The prospect of a first-time champion is now out of the window as the two favourites emerged victorious in the semi-finals, but they have both ended long waits to get a shot at reclaiming the trophy.

By Neel Shelat

🇳🇬 Nigeria 1-1 South Africa 🇿🇦 (4-2 on pens)

South Africa were far from being among the pre-tournament favourites, but they proved to be a very cohesive side. A majority Mamelodi Sundowns first-choice XI meant that their players on the pitch knew each other far better than their opponents did, which proved to be a real advantage against stronger sides like Morocco and Tunisia.

Hugo Broos’ tactical nouse deserved credit too as he made the right changes between games, never more so than before the semi-final against Nigeria. Having used a back-four all tournament, he added Siyanda Xulu to the team to switch to a 5-4-1 formation and mirror the opposition.

That proved to be a great call as South Africa comfortably dealt with Nigeria’s attempted press and hardly looked phased defensively. They were the team who controlled proceedings, with 60% of possession, but chance creation proved difficult for both sides.

Nigeria’s attacking play was reduced to getting the ball to Victor Osimhen and waiting for him to conjure up something, which he did after the hour-mark to win a penalty. Captain William Troost-Ekong stepped up and thrashed it home to put the Super Eagles in front.

As South Africa had to push for an equaliser, Nigeria started to look more and more threatening on the counter. A far-post tap-in from Osimhen towards the end of the 90 minutes seemed to seal the result, but there was a huge twist in the tale as the VAR called the referee over to inspect a foul in the build-up at the other end, which resulted in South Africa being awarded a spot-kick of their own and the goal being ruled out. Teboho Mokoena converted under pressure, taking the match to extra time.

No goals in that period meant that penalties were needed to decide the result. Ronwen Williams’ quadruple save heroics in the quarter-final must have made him a scary opponent for the Nigerians, but their takers kept all of their efforts out of his reach. So, a couple of saves from Stanley Nwabili were enough for Nigeria to keep their title hopes alive.

🇨🇮 Ivory Coast 1-0 DR Congo 🇨🇩

The Ivory Coast’s most singular home AFCON campaign somehow kept going despite a worst-ever home defeat, mid-tournament coaching change and a quarter-final deficit with ten men on the pitch. Now, they were two matches away from glory, the first of which was a semi-final against DR Congo.

The Leopards had far more serious off-field issues of their own as their players staged a pre-match protest to raise awareness about the ongoing violent internal conflict in the east of their country. Then, they hoped to get the job done on the pitch to reach their first AFCON final since 1968, when they won the title in Ethiopia not long after Mobutu Sese Seko’s coup d’état marked the end of the Congo Crisis.

Throughout this tournament, neither team had looked overly exciting in possession despite the abundance of attacking quality in both squads. So, despite the presence of the likes of Simon Adingra and Yoane Wissa, the match was far from a thrilling spectacle.

The hosts kept a comfortable majority of possession and broke into the attacking third much more often, so it was only fair that they scored the opener. The manner of the goal was quite fitting too, as Sébastien Haller did not make the cleanest of contacts as he met a cross with an improvised first-time finish but the ball bounced beyond the keeper’s reach and ended up in the back of the net.

DR Congo never showed the urgency required to get an equaliser, so their run ended with a whimper as they failed to register a single shot on target in the second half.

Looking Ahead: Final

We do have a third-place play-off between South Africa and DR Congo on Saturday, but both sides might not field full-strength XIs after the bitter disappointment of failing to reach their first AFCON final since the turn of the century.

Instead, it will be Nigeria who take on the Ivory Coast. The two nations won the AFCON one after the other fairly recently as the Elephants lifted the 2015 title after the Super Eagles’ 2013 triumph, but around a decade is quite a long wait for these two football-mad countries.

Of course, they met just a couple of weeks ago in their second group game, which ended in a one-nil win for Nigeria. In hindsight, that was a pivotal fixture for both of their tournaments. That was the match in which José Peseiro switched to the 5-4-1 formation, which has finally managed to bring some much-needed balance to his side.

In the other camp, that defeat created the pressure which led the hosts to crumble against Equatorial Guinea, ultimately resulting in Jean-Louis Gasset’s departure and Emerse Faé instalment as interim head coach. Faé’s in-game tweaks and changes have proven pivotal in each of their knockout matches so far, so we should be treated to a very interesting tactical battle in the final.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every the Africa Cup of Nations Final, on Sunday – with deep stats and players ratings, on FotMob. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

Joao Pedro: Brighton’s rare transfer gamble that is paying dividends

When Brighton agreed to pay a club-record £30million to sign Watford forward João Pedro last summer, a few eyebrows were raised.

Pedro had arrived in England in January 2020, signing for Watford from Fluminense. The Hornets had hoped to repeat the Richarlison trick. He too moved from the Rio-based club to Watford prior to a big-money move to Everton after an impressive debut campaign at Vicarage Road.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

However, the process was a lot slower with Pedro. For starters, he didn’t really become a starter with Watford until the 2020/21 campaign in the Championship. He netted nine times in the English second tier as the Hornets were promoted before a difficult 2021/22 season in the Premier League. Pedro scored just three times as Watford, once again, were relegated. Despite rumours he would be sold, he remained with the club in the Championship, scoring 11 times.

His stock was nowhere near as high as it once was when it was announced the Seagulls had agreed a deal to sign the versatile attacker. There’s no other way to dress this up; Brighton, famed for their smart signings, had gambled on Pedro.

It was a bit of a head-scratcher at the time too given the noise around Even Ferguson. The Republic of Ireland international was being touted as a £100million player and it seemed risky to bring in another attacker who could well limit his game time.

As it turns out, it was a clever decision.

The 19-year-old has been inconsistent and has some injury issues this season. Ferguson has just six goals in the Premier League this term and three of those arrived in a 3-1 win over Newcastle United. His last goal in the English top-flight arrived in November.

By comparison, Pedro is scoring for fun. The 22-year-old has eight goals in his last seven outings for the Seagulls, across all competitions, as well as one assist.

The one-cap Brazil international is Brighton’s leading scorer in the Premier League with eight and he’s also notched five times in FA Cup and six times in the Europa League. For added context, he’s level with the likes of Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Diogo Jota and Julián Álvarez for goals scored in the top tier of English football.

Granted, 10 of his 19 goals this season have come via the penalty spot. In fact, he actually holds the Brighton record for penalties scored in a single season! While some will look down on this return, we’ve seen big players miss penalties over the years. Having a reliable penalty taker is priceless.

As shown by his penalty shot map (above) he is consistent with his penalty attempts in the Premier League and favours two types. If he’s aiming to his right, he adds a bit of height to it. If he’s going to his left, he keeps them low.

His calmness and composure from the spot is a key reason as to why Brighton are currently eighth in the Premier League, just three points off of sixth-placed Manchester United. His spot-kick expertise is also one of the main reasons Brighton are into the knockout rounds of the Europa League and into the Fifth-Round of the FA Cup.

Pedro has turned out to be one of the signings of the season. Not just for Brighton but across the Premier League entirely.

Manager Roberto De Zerbi believes the Brighton No. 9 has the potential to improve. Speaking recently, the Italian tactician said:

“The last step to become a great, great player is to play 90 minutes in the same way. Sometimes in the game he starts the game not at his best and I would like the beginning of the game until the end of the game to be the same mentality.”

“João Pedro’s DNA is of a top player. We try to help him to progress, to be better. But not the coaches – the players and the dressing room of Brighton is great. You can learn watching what Pascal Gross does, Lewis Dunk, Danny Welbeck, Joel Veltman, Adam Webster, James Milner, Adam Lallana. If you are a good guy, if you have good behaviour, you will learn from these players.”

There’s talk that Pedro could leave the Amex this summer in a big-money move but another season on the South Coast could help him develop his all-round game and that is quite a scary prospect for rival clubs. For now, though, he’s proven to be yet another masterstroke signing by the Seagulls.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

Asian Cup Semi-finals Review: Jordanian joy, Qatar keep title defence alive

The drama and unpredictability continued at the 2023 Asian Cup as we were treated to two enthralling semi-finals this week. Jordan’s historic win over South Korea and hosts Qatar’s triumph over Iran in a five-goal thriller have set up a very exciting final which almost nobody could have foreseen before the tournament kicked off.

By Neel Shelat

🇯🇴 Jordan 2-0 South Korea 🇰🇷

A historic day for Jordan saw them make their Asian Cup semi-final debut against South Korea. Jürgen Klinsmann’s side were considered among the strongest contenders for the title going into the tournament, but their performances leading up to the semis were far from convincing.

The Taegeuk Warriors had trailed at some point in each of their previous five games, needing extremely late stoppage time equalisers in both knockout ties to go to extra time before eventually managing to get over the line. This clearly was not a sustainable approach, but they might have hoped that the momentum built up by these dramatic late winners would push them through the next couple of matches at least.

Against a well-drilled Jordanian side, though, they came unstuck. Houssaine Ammouta’s men were happy to cede possession and drop into a very solid and compact 5-4-1 block, but they also posed a serious attacking threat thanks to the exceptional Musa Al-Taamari, who was chiefly supported by Yazan Al-Naimat.

After threatening throughout the match, the duo eventually struck early on in the second half as Al-Taamari drove infield with the ball at his feet and then slipped in Al-Naimat, who beat the goalkeeper with a cute chipped finish. Just over ten minutes later, Al-Taamari took matters into his own hands as he capped off a mazy dribble with a precise finish into the corner, putting his side in a commanding position.

The difference between Jordan and South Korea’s previous knockout opponents was their defensive composure inside their own half and around the box. As a result of that, South Korea never really got going and ultimately went down with a whimper, failing to register as much as a shot on target.

The manner of this defeat – and indeed South Korea’s performances throughout the tournament – will put Klinsmann’s position under serious threat. There was controversy over his approach to the job right from the time he took over, so the KFA will have to seriously consider where they want him to be the man leading the side to the 2026 World Cup.

🇮🇷 Iran 2-3 Qatar 🇶🇦

After convincingly winning their group, Iran registered two dramatic knockout wins over Syria and pre-tournament favourites Japan. On the back of those results, they might have felt that this was finally their year as they entered the final four as the strongest-looking side both on form and by the FIFA rankings.

Qatar, however, were not going to pushovers by any stretch of the imagination. As the hosts and defending champions, there was a good deal of pressure on the side to which they had risen. They too comfortably won their group and then just about got the better of Palestine and Uzbekistan to reach the semi-final. The concern, however, was that they had not come across a top-level team yet.

It quickly became clear why fans were worried about that. Just four minutes in, Iran took the lead through an improvised finish from Sardar Azmoun. They remained in the ascendancy thereafter, creating a couple of golden chances to go two up. Soon enough, though, Qatar were back in the game thanks to a deflected shot that looped over Alireza Beiranvand and dropped in the goal.

The match then devolved into an incredibly end-to-end affair as both sides were happy to play quite directly and transitioned back and forth. Iran continued to create presentable chances, but it was Qatar who took the lead thanks to a moment of magic from star forward Akram Afif.

Just as they had done against Uzbekistan, the hosts then seemed to drop too deep defensively and began to invite a lot of pressure. Bodies flew everywhere as they defended for dear life in their box, but that clearly was not a sustainable approach. Just a few minutes into the second half, Iran won a penalty which Alireza Jahanbaksh duly converted.

Team Melli kept up the momentum thereafter, but Qatar somehow managed to keep the scores level through some desperate last-ditch defending. Better yet, they took the lead against the run of play in the 81st minute when Almoez Ali clinically slotted home a finish after the ball broke to him in the box. Iran received a late red card too as they threw in the kitchen sink in search of an equaliser, which somehow evaded them. So, they fell short in an incredibly high-octane semi-final.

Having created more, and better quality chances, Amir Ghalenoei’s side will rightly feel hard done by that result. Iran have not reached the Asian Cup final since their third-consecutive triumph in 1976, so this result might mark the end of their hopes for another generation of players.

Looking ahead: Final

An incredible all-Arab final is in store for us this Saturday, as Jordan take on Qatar.

For Jordan, nothing can mar what is already a historic Asian Cup campaign. Reaching the semi-finals was a first for them, so going one better by beating South Korea (of all sides) is a massive achievement. They will not want to let this golden opportunity to lift a first-ever major trophy slip by easily, though, and between their solid defence and attacking star power, they have all the tools to get the job done at the Lusail Stadium.

Qatar too should be very proud of their campaign so far. No team has successfully defended the title since 2004, while such a feat has not been achieved on home soil since 1976. Going into the tournament, the Maroons did not look in the best of shape owing to the last-minute coaching change, but appointing Tintín Márquez now looks to be a masterstroke. His constant tinkering has raised many pre-match eyebrows from fans and opponents alike, but his familiarity with the players has meant that his decisions have paid off so far. One more masterstroke is sure to earn him a permanent spot in Qatari football folklore.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

Savio: The Brazilian teenager driving Girona forward in LaLiga

At the age of just 19, few players have dazzled LaLiga like Girona winger Savio. The Brazilian has made an almighty impression on the Spanish top-flight, going from an unknown quantity to one of the division’s standout stars within a matter of months.

By Luke Bissett

Savio, also known as Savinho, has been a vital component in Girona’s incredible campaign, notching five goals and seven assists across 23 LaLiga appearances. The wide player has continued to turn heads far and wide with his sparkling displays – and none more so than fellow City Football Group club Manchester City, who have agreed a deal to sign him in the summer.

The Brazilian began his footballing career in the academy of Atlético Mineiro – where he went on to make his debut aged just 16 under manager Jorge Sampaoli. Thereafter, Savio moved to Europe in the summer of 2022, initially joining CFG outfit Troyes before being loaned to PSV Eindhoven for the 2022-23 campaign. However, the winger failed to make an impact in the Netherlands, accumulating just six Eredivisie appearances and spending the majority of his spell with the club’s U23 side Jong PSV, who play in the country’s second tier.

On paper, Savio returned to Troyes last pre-season only to immedietely seal a loan move to Girona – another side within the City Football Group umbrella. Girona and Savio haven’t looked back since. The 19-year-old has been one of LaLiga’s breakout stars, adopting the role of attacking lynchpin in one of Europe’s most exciting forward-lines. The loss of last season’s top scorer Valentín Castellanos has seemingly had little impact on Girona if none at all. In fact, the Catalonians are LaLiga’s top scorers with an impressive tally of 52 goals from their opening 23 league games.

Savio himself has captured imaginations throughout Spain, tormenting defences with his quick-feet and instinctive final balls. The Brazilian was nominally a right-sided player before moving to Montilivi, but Girona boss Michel has typically opted to deploy him on the opposing flank as a left winger within the side’s 4-2-3-1. And it’s a decision that has paid dividends.

The 19-year-old’s ability on the ball instantly sets him apart, attempting (130) and completing (62) more dribbles than any other player in the Spanish top-flight this term. Savio’s dribbling ability is undoubtedly one of his greatest qualities, particularly when looking to take defenders on. The attacker is quite comfortably one of the most formidable one-v-one specialists in the big five European league. He is able to beat opponents with ease, boasting a dribble success rate of 47.7% – the highest among the five LaLiga players with at least 100 dribble attempts. This has even forced opposition sides to ‘double up’ on the wide player at times in attempt to nullify his attacking threat, but to little avail.

Another mightily impressive trait of Savio is that he displays real intent on the ball. The Girona star always looks to attack with purpose. Only four LaLiga players have made more progressive carries than him (217), while he has the highest total carry distance of any player in the Spanish top-tier this season (5,046 metres). The teenager possesses the ability to drag his side up the pitch via his supremely effective ball-carrying or by offering an out-ball to his side. Furthermore, only Rodrygo (58) has made more ball carries into the box than Savio in LaLiga this term (47).

One of Girona’s key attacking principles is to manipulate space, which in turn isolates Savio one-on-one with a defender. The Catalonians look to retain width and the Brazilian often stays high and wide on the touchline to always provide an attacking outlet. Savio has received 230 progressive passes in the league across 2023-24, the outright most of any player in La Liga.

Yet the 19-year-old’s skillset extends beyond just toying with defences through his ball-carrying. He is equally capable of splitting defences with penetrative final-balls. He leads all LaLiga players for assists (7), expected assists (xA) (7), while only two players have made more passes into the penalty area than him (38). The Brazilian is a huge source of Girona’s attacking potency and Manchester City fans will certainly be salivating at the tantalising prospect of striker Erling Haaland being on the end of the winger’s piercing deliveries.

Savio has also built a superb relationship with Girona left-back Miguel Gutiérrez. The duo vary their attacking runs to give opponents a constant headache, be it Gutiérrez embarking on underlapping runs or Savio inverting into the half-spaces to combine with teammates inside the pitch. The forward has also displayed an eye for a goal, netting five strikes from just 24 shots. He has consistently performed throughout the season, proving that his form is no flash in the pan. Girona currently sit second in the LaLiga standings, just two points behind leaders Real Madrid – nicely setting up a clash between the two sides at the Bernabéu this Saturday.

Any potential Girona success will invariably rely on the performance of star-man Savio, who has continued to thrive in one of LaLiga’s most dominant sides. Whether the Brazilian moves to the Etihad in the summer or remains in Catalonia for another season, there is little doubt his talent will ensure he’s playing Champions League football next season. And after exceeding all expectations thus far, who would dare put a ceiling on just how far his talent can go.

(Images from IMAGO)

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