The English WSL title race was blown open this weekend. Manchester City moved level on points with leaders Chelsea, while Arsenal closed the gap behind them to three points to give us a three-way title race as we approach the home stretch of the season.
By Neel Shelat
With a crucial hard-fought win at Kingsmeadow last weekend, Manchester City erased Chelsea’s advantage at the top of the WSL table both in terms of points as well as goal difference. Behind them, Arsenal scored a big win over Manchester United in front of a league-record crowd at the Emirates Stadium to stay in contention for top honours at the end of the season, leaving us with a very tasty-looking top three going into the international break.
Although Chelsea have won the last four league titles, the WSL tends to deliver a close title race. They have been pushed hard by Manchester City, Arsenal, and Manchester United respectively in the last three seasons, but this time, they have multiple challengers to contend with.
Naturally, all three teams will back themselves to get the job done in the last eight games of the season, so let us assess each of their chances individually.
Chelsea
The defending champions appeared to be the favourites for most of the first half of what will be Emma Hayes’ last season at the club, but they suffered a big setback in the winter. Star striker Sam Kerr was ruled out for the rest of the campaign with an ACL injury, leaving the Blues without the woman who was their top scorer in each of the last two seasons.
They did sign Colombian international Mayra Ramírez towards the end of the transfer window, but their attack has spluttered at times in recent weeks. They needed a couple of contentious penalty calls to beat Everton in late January, only just scored a late winner against Championship side Crystal Palace in their last FA Cup tie, and then got shut out against Manchester City.
A part of the problem, perhaps, is the Blues’ lack of consistent goal threat beyond Lauren James. The young English forward has been fantastic this season with 12 goals to her name, but she has not created much as a consequence.
Young Agnes Beever-Jones might have five goals to her name, but none of them have been game-state-changing strikes. Chelsea will hope to see her step up and deliver more meaningfully in crunch situations, but the primary onus of leading the attack will obviously fall on Ramírez.
The Blues have the highest possession average in the league, the most touches in the opposition box and by far the most big chances created, so what they are experiencing right now should only be a minor blip rather than a long-term concern.
Defensively, Chelsea are pretty good but not quite at their best. They can be susceptible to counter-attacks or even build-up attacks at times, but a record of six clean sheets in 14 league matches is not to be sniffed at.
Emma Hayes’ side are still in control of their own destiny but have some tough tests coming up in the form of two derbies against their major London rivals as well as a final day trip to face Manchester United. The Blues will also have to balance their Champions League, FA Cup, and League Cup campaigns alongside their title charge, so the depth of their squad is sure to be tested in the second half of the season.
Manchester City
After missing out on continental football altogether at the end of last season, many wondered if Gareth Taylor was the right person to continue leading the team forward. Back-to-back league defeats in November did not strengthen his case at all, but since then, the team seemingly flicked a switch and found a whole new level. They are currently on an 11-match winning streak in all competitions, so momentum certainly is on their side in this title race.
Their recent success has been built on an incredibly solid defensive record. The aforementioned winning run includes seven clean sheets, including each of their last five matches. Unlike Chelsea, they do not tend to decimate teams, but have consistently managed to grind out results.
With just eight goals conceded all season, City have by far the best defensive record in the league. While their great teamwork in defending from the front to the back deserve credit, 19-year-old goalkeeper Khiara Keating has been a real difference-maker. In what is her first season with regular senior action, she has established herself as the best shot-stopper in England.
Despite her best efforts, though, the young Englishwoman cannot claim to be the key player in this Manchester City side. That title has to go to Khadija Shaw, who is arguably the most important player to her team in the entire league. Her qualities as a complete centre-forward make her a central hub that gets City’s attack going in every way imaginable.
With a league-high 14 goals and 3 assists to her name, our ratings model considers Shaw the best player by far in the WSL this season. As long as they keep her fit and firing up front and keep things tight at the back, Manchester City will be a real force to reckon with in this title race.
Arsenal
In a way, Arsenal are lucky to still be in the hunt as the top two have held each other up in their meetings. No team who have lost more than two WSL matches have ever gone on to lift the title, but the Gunners had already suffered three league defeats before the turn of the year.
Indeed, Jonas Eidevall’s side have not looked fully refined at either end of the pitch. They do have a good cohort of diverse attacking profiles, who can link-up well and threaten by both creating and scoring, but lack a prolific goal-getter like Lauren James or Khadija Shaw.
Out of possession, the Gunners have been the best pressers in the WSL with the most high turnovers to their name, but they have frustratingly struggled to keep shut-outs. Just three clean sheets in the season so far places them level with Everton and Aston Villa in that respect, so they really need to shore things up at the back if they are to stay in the hunt for the title in April and May.
(Images from IMAGO)
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