Page 8 – The Pulse of Football

Dec

2024

Home Comforts: Why have Brentford been so good at the Gtech?

Brentford have been one of the greatest mysteries in the Premier League this season.

Thomas Frank’s men have been almost perfect at home this term, winning seven of their eight matches at the Gtech Community Stadium. The Bees have racked up 22 points from the 24 on offer, matching their haul from last season on home turf with 11 matches still to play. In fact, they already have more wins than they managed during the 2023/24 campaign (five).

*Brentford home and away points breakdown*

They find themselves in ninth position in the English top-flight, just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City, purely because of their home form. Remarkably, 96% of their points haul this term has come from home fixtures. In their seven away games, Brentford have picked up just a single point.

Like I said, they’re one of the Premier League’s greatest mysteries this season.

Brentford have the best home record. They are also the only team to have picked up 20 or more points in front of home fans. For context, table toppers Liverpool rank second on 18 points.

It is a deserved record too. Frank’s men have scored 26 goals from an Expected Goals total of 18. Tottenham are the only other team in the league to have scored 20 or more in the English top-flight.

The Bees are a little leaky defensively, conceding 14 goals from an Expected Goals Against total of 11. But their attack is bailing them out of trouble. The players Frank has at his disposal in the final third are strong enough to beat the majority of teams in the Premier League. Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo, the returning Igor Thiago, Fabio Carvalho, Kevin Schade, Keane Lewis-Potter and Mikel Damsgaard give Brentford some serious depth.

As things stand, Mbeumo and Wissa have both scored nine goals each in the Premier League while Schade is on four. You’d be forgiven for forgetting that Brentford lost Ivan Toney in the summer.

*Brentford top scorers, Premier League 2024/25*

So, their incredible home numbers are largely due to their remarkable attack.

Brentford have scored three or more in six of their eight matches at the Gtech. They have four or more in four of their last five home fixtures. They hit Wolves for five and found the back of the net on four occasions in games against Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Newcastle United

Home has been a safe haven for the Bees. But they’ve been kind of fortunate with who they have faced this term. They have, for example, played four of the bottom five. And this has, no doubt, helped massively. Momentum is on their side and the fixtures have fallen favourably.

Last season, Brentford started the campaign hosting Spurs. They never really had a good run of fixtures at home without one of the clubs pushing for a top six visiting the Gtech. This could be why their record wasn’t great.

Frank and his team ranked 16th last season for home form, winning just five of their 19 matches. They racked up 22 points and conceded more goals (34) than they scored (29). The fixture list really does impact results, form and momentum.

Away from home, it has been a different story for the Bees this season.

The Bees also have the joint-worst away record, along with bottom of the table Southampton.

They have played seven and won zero games. They have suffered six defeats, scored just five goals and have conceded 14. Again, the numbers back these results up. Brentford have an xG of 5.8 and have an xG Against total of 14.4.

Last season, their away form wasn’t great either. They won five of their 19 matches and picked up 17 points on the road.

Again, though, this could be tied to fixtures. Brentford have already faced league leaders Liverpool, reigning champions Manchester City and European hopefuls Spurs and Aston Villa on their travels. They have also made the trip to Old Trafford. The Red Devils aren’t the team they once were but it is still quite a daunting start to the season, isn’t it?

Anfield, the Etihad, Villa Park, Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur stadium in five of their seven away ties.

On the surface, Brentford’s form looks to be a bit of a mystery. In reality, though, they’ve had good luck at home and no luck on their travels. This could soon be reversed. On the horizon, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Villa soon make the trip to the Gtech while the Bees travel to St Mary’s, the King Power and Selhurst Park. Their home form could tail off while their away form improves.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

What happened to Sevilla and just how far have they fallen?

A lot can happen in two seasons in football, but even so Sevilla are testing the limits of elasticity after a hard and fast fall, having won the Europa League – again – only 18 months ago.

By Karl Matchett

In truth, that victory perhaps masked the start of their demise, as they ended a run of three top-four finishes in a row to end 12th in LaLiga that campaign, and it has only gotten worse since then. Sevilla won five European trophies in the space of a decade and were often in the Champions League knockout stages in the seasons in between; this year, an away day at Las Palmas is as exciting a long-haul trip as they’ll be having, and they didn’t even win that.

So, for the uninitiated, let’s rewind a little. Sevilla, once the poster club for clever transfer work and the signpost for over-achievement in European football, finished between third and seventh in LaLiga in 17 out of 19 seasons, from 03/04 through to 21/22. They also won the Copa del Rey twice and the Uefa Cup twice more in that earlier period, highlighting the success and golden formula they’d found.

Perhaps, then, it was natural that such sustained ability to challenge couldn’t go on indefinitely, but even so, this has been a thump of a landing. After ending 12th in 22/23, last season they finished 14th. This term it could get even worse. They are 13th now, with just one away win all season, and while home form has been somewhat better, they’ve had a much easier run of games at the Sánchez Pizjuán – the top four all head to them in the second half of the year.

It isn’t that tricky to identify why they are performing poorly when watching them – often a muddled identity on the pitch, caught between pointless ball retention and defensive fragility – but the numbers offer a further clue. Sevilla rank fifth in LaLiga for average possession, for example, but 11th for shots on target, 12th for xG, 14th for big chances created. A shot conversion rate of 8.8% is also only better than four other teams in the division. At the other end, while not the be-all and end-all, an xG conceded tally of 21.7 is fairly poor, the eighth highest in LaLiga, but they’ve actually conceded more than that, with 23.

That’s as a team; individually it is similarly reflective of a side unable to translate possession into meaningful openings. Too few players create or take chances with any regularity, with the team heavily reliant on Dodi Lukebakio, who is top for goals, season xG, shots on target per 90, chances created and successful dribbles per 90, if we ignore bit-part performer Chidera Ejuke for the latter, with barely 500 minutes to his name.

And if all that wasn’t enough to make it difficult for García Pimienta’s side to be winning matches, five times this season they’ve made matters even worse by being shown red cards – no team in all of Europe’s top five leagues have had more so far this season. Confidence, tactical organisation and individual mistakes can all play a part across the season in underperformance and all three were arguably on show last time out in defeat at Atlético Madrid: 3-1 up with half an hour to play, Sevilla absolutely imploded, conceding the last in stoppage time to lose 4-3 and make it just one win in five.

It’s easy to try and pin the demise of the team on a single factor: the exit of Monchi, say. The sporting director was famed for his transfer work in his first spell at the club, but matters didn’t go well at Roma and after returning to Sevilla in 2019, it wasn’t much better. He left for Aston Villa in 2023 and the club’s dealings haven’t been stellar since then either – decision-making has been questionable at times and not enough big sales have been well reinvested. There was a time it seemed every player who left Sevilla had a big profit attached; that hasn’t happened of late. Yassine Bounou’s sale to Al Hilal brought in a chunk, certainly, and this past summer striker Youssef En Nesyri went to Fenerbahçe for €20m. But aside from those it has been loans, free transfers and low-cost deals departing the club, with mostly the same coming in. Perhaps Lukebakio, signed for around €10m 18 months ago, will buck that trend – but as noted, they’re highly reliant on him on the pitch right now.

There’s no easy turnaround for Sevilla, with financial constraints hitting many clubs in Spain, meaning selling players on is tougher – and it doesn’t look as though European football is on the horizon any time soon either. The club had a two-decade-long golden period, but the sport moves on quickly. Right now, Sevilla can only think about halting the slide.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW16

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

*Don’t forget the FPL deadline for this round – make your transfers and sort your team out before 13:30 GMT on Saturday*

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

Enzo Fernández (5.0m) has performed really well recently. In his last five games he has three goals and three assists. Fernández was a player no one considered before the season started, so you may ask yourself why now? He is still playing as a midfielder, but drifting into offensive positions much more than he has previously in his Chelsea career. It seems like he almost becomes another No.10 when Chelsea are on the attack. And at 5m he seems very good value as a player who could act as the fifth midfielder in your fantasy team.

Next, let’s have a look at his stats next. Last season Enzo scored three and assisted two, which means he’s equalled last season’s tally already. His xG for this season stands at 1.55 and his xA is 2.41, which means he’s over performing in terms of his expected numbers. I wouldn’t buy Enzo if you had to rely on him every single week, but he is undoubtedly a very good additional option for your team.

Alexander Isak (8.6m) was a player I wrote about ahead of GW12. Since then he has registered 22 fantasy points and earned a 0.1m price rise. In one of the games he was also subbed off after just 22 minutes due to a slight knock. And with Newcastle due to play Leicester City and Ipswich Town in the near future, Isak still has a couple of good looking fixtures coming up.

Isak’s stats are still good, with 0.63 xGI (Expected Goal Involvements) per 90 in the Premier League. Leicester have conceded 4.64 xG in the two league games played under Ruud Van Nistelrooy so far so I’m expecting him to return in that fixture. Having said that, Isak is definitely a player I would target for my team if I had an obvious way into getting him in and I wouldn’t be too fussed even if his next few fixtures weren’t the best. I see him as long term hold as he has proven in the past that he can score against stronger opposition – Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool can tell you this season.

Long shot

Levi Colwill (4.5m) is the second Chelsea player I want to mention this week. Colwill has played a full 90 minutes in 14/15 games this season and is the cheapest nailed on route into the Chelsea defence. Chelsea have one of, if not the best run of upcoming fixtures in the Premier League. When it comes to his attacking threat, there is not much to talk about, but for a defender at only 4.5m you cannot expect many attacking returns. Colwill is one I would own for the chance of clean sheets even though Chelsea do rank 10th for xG Conceded this season. The Blues have only conceded 18 goals, which puts them at third for actual goals conceded. The only teams better off than that are the teams directly above and below them in the table; Liverpool and Arsenal.

Colwill is only owned by 4.2% of FPL managers, which makes him a good differential.

Upcoming games to follow

From an FPL perspective there are a few upcoming games I will be following. The first one is Saturday’s meeting between Arsenal and Everton. Although the Toffees came good to beat Wolves 4-0 last time out, I expect Arsenal to win comfortably here. Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Gabriel (if fit) are players I would keep an eye on in this game.

Spurs play Southampton on Sunday, and that is another game I’ll be watching closely. And that’s simply because Spurs have a few interesting players and Southampton are statistically, the worst team in the league. Heung-min Son and Dominic Solanke are the two players of most interest to me at the moment.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Dec

2024

Preview: Rangers and Spurs set to test each other in the Europa League

Rangers take on Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League this evening with both sides fighting for a place in the top eight of the table, thus securing an automatic berth in the last 16.

By Ross Kilvington

Given the change of format across all three European club competitions, it was perhaps inevitable that two British Clubs would be drawn together.

With just two fixtures left after this one, a victory for either side could prove crucial to their European ambitions this season.

Battle of Britain clash

For those in the UK there is nothing quite like a Battle of Britain type clash in Europe. The last one Rangers were involved in ended in a 7-1 defeat to Liverpool at Ibrox, representing their heaviest ever home loss in Europe.

In recent years, Spurs have defeated Manchester City on the way to the 2019 Champions League final, while their last clash against Scottish opposition saw them secure a 5-0 aggregate win over Hearts in the Europa League playoff round back in 2011.

The two teams have combined to win four major European trophies, reaching a further six finals, indicating that this is a clash between two of Britain’s most successful clubs.

The Light Blues and Spurs have faced off once before, with the North Londoners coming out victors in the 1962/63 European Cup Winner’s Cup first round. Can you remember that one!?

Key players

Former Celtic manager Ange Postecoglou will be hoping his return to Ibrox ends in a positive manner. Spurs’ Jekyll and Hyde form has seen them defeat Man City twice in recent weeks, yet also suffer defeats against Bournemouth and Ipswich Town.

Brennan Johnson could be the key man for Spurs, despite coming off with illness against Chelsea. The Welshman has scored three times in the Europa League, adding a further assist and he could line up alongside Will Lankshear and Heung-min Son.

Dejan Kulusevski was impressive against AS Roma last time out in Europe, recording an assist while registering four shots during the match and the Ibrox side will need to be wary of the threat he poses.

The Rangers attack is clicking into gear at exactly the right time. Nine goals were scored over their previous two games, with Hamza Igamane scoring twice in the process. The African starlet netted twice against OGC Nice last time out in Europe and he could offer a key attacking threat against Spurs.

Igamane should be supported by Nedim Bajrami and Václav Černý on the flanks. The pair have registered six goal contributions between them across five matches.

If this attacking trio can get firing, then they could cause Spurs some trouble.

Team news

Postecoglou has a few players on the treatment table. Richarlison, Mikey Moore and Wilson Odobert remain out, while centre-backs Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero were forced off against Chelsea, ruling them out for the clash tonight.

For Rangers, Tom Lawrence and Oscar Cortes are still unavailable, while Rabbi Matondo is finally back in full training after injury.

Ianis Hagi and Danilo have been impressive recently, but the duo were omitted from the Europa League squad at the start of the season, meaning coach Philippe Clement will have to make do without.

Prediction

This is a match which is so hard to predict. Given how good Spurs can be when they are at full flow, everything points to a straightforward win for them. But recent defensive frailties suggest that if Rangers can click into gear going forward, they may well have a chance of gaining a positive result.

For these reasons, I predict an entertaining 2-2 draw.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Man United face Viktoria Plzeň in Thursday night football

Rúben Amorim takes his United side to Czechia, where they face Viktoria Plzeň, the side who regularly battle it out with Prague powerhouses Sparta and Salvia for domestic honours in the Central European nation.

By Ian King

New Beginnings

These two clubs have never played each other before, so it’s a bit of a journey into the unknown for both. Manchester United, of course, are European club football royalty, three times champions of Europe and the first English club to win it all in 1968, these midweek nights under the floodlights are woven into the very fabric of the club.

Viktoria Plzeň, meanwhile, are this season completing the unusual hat-trick of having played in all three of the major European tournaments over the last three consecutive seasons, and last season went all the way to the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League before losing out in extra-time to Fiorentina.

Recent Form

United were the masters of their own misfortune last weekend against Nottingham Forest, and coupled with the sudden and unexpected departure of Sporting Director Dan Ashworth, they need a win to steady their ship ahead of this weekend’s Manchester derby. As ever, a trip to relatively modest European opponents is an opportunity to shake off some cobwebs, but Manchester United have been in this position more than once in recent years and have failed to do so.

Viktoria are unbeaten in seven games (all comps), and currently sit second in the Czech First League behind runaway leaders Slavia Prague, who’ve only dropped four points all season. Their record in this tournament so far is identical to United’s – three draws followed by two wins – and they’re only one goal behind United in the mega-league, in 13th place. As things stand, both are in the seeded section of the play-off places, but with three games yet to play this could all yet change.

Key players

Pavel Šulc is Viktoria’s top scorer this season with ten goals in all competitions, and given how leaky United’s defence was in their last match he could be a real threat. Also worth keeping an eye on is Prince Kwabena Adu, who was on the Guardian’s Next Generation list in 2020 and arrived at Viktoria in August from the Ukrainian club FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih. For Manchester United, Marcus Rashford had looked like he could thrive under Rúben Amorim, though he’s looked a little more anonymous in their last two games.

Team News

It will surprise precisely no-one to learn that Luke Shaw is injured again, and with Jonny Evans also missing the Manchester United defence may have something of a patchwork feel to it, although it’s possible that Victor Lindelhof may return. Viktoria will be missing Matej Valenta, Christopher Kabongo, Jan Sykora and Rafiu Durosinmi.

Prediction

United have kept just one clean sheet in the last five, whilst Viktoria Plzeň have kept two in the last nine, and this means that goals could be plentiful in this match. With the firepower that United have at their disposal this might ordinarily be considered a fairly straightforward win, but Viktoria have plenty of European experience and we’ve all seen United fail to finish off modest opposition in recent years. United should still find a way through, but it could be tight; 2-1 to United.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Chelsea visit Kazakhstan for an early KO

Enzo Maresca will take an even more youthful Chelsea side than usual on the gruelling 6000-mile journey to Kazakhstan as they take on FC Astana in their fifth Europa Conference League game of the season.

By Alex Roberts

Due to ongoing renovation work at FC Astana’s home ground, Chelsea will be forced to wrestle sub-zero temperatures at the Ortalyk Stadion in Almaty instead of playing at the Kazakhstani side’s usual ground.

Chelsea have won all four of their European games so far, scoring 18 goals and conceding just three, giving Maresca the envious position of being able to prioritise their game against Brentford on Saturday instead.

A chance for some Chelsea debuts

Ato Ampah, Harrison McMahon, Kaiden Wilson, Richard Olise, Josh Acheampong and Harrison Murray-Campbell have been added to the squad, with Maresca committed to playing at least two from the start.

Acheampong is the only one of those youngsters to have featured for Chelsea’s first team before, making his debut under Mauricio Pochettino last season. He also earned his first game under Maresca for his boyhood club in their 5-0 League Cup win over Barrow earlier this season.

Chelsea have lost plenty of academy stars over the past couple of seasons in their never-ending pursuit of ‘pure profit’, and another may be born in freezing cold Kazakhstan.

Don’t underestimate FC Astana

FC Astana may not be as glamorous as Chelsea, but they certainly have some European pedigree, bagging surprise draws against Atlético Madrid, Benfica, and Galatasaray in their 2015-16 Champions League campaign.

Summer signing Geoffrey Chinedu has been on fire so far this season, scoring 12 goals in 18 appearances across all competitions as Astana sit second in the Kazakhstani Premier League and 23^rd in the new Europe Conference League league phase.

Goals have been hard to come by in Europe for Grigori Babayan‘s side this season, with the team scoring just twice in their opening four games and clinging to their knockout qualification hopes by a thread.

Can Marc Guiu make a claim?

The young La Masia graduate joined in the summer but has struggled to make any real impact thanks to Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku’s impressive form both domestically and on the continent.

He does have one goal, however, scoring Chelsea’s second in their 8-0 battering of FC Noah on Matchday 3, capitalising on some sloppy defensive play from the Armenians.

Guiu’s pressing is arguably the strongest aspect of his game, having won possession in the final third three times and boasting a 100% tackle success rate in the Europa Conference League.

The game against Astana could prove to be the perfect opportunity for the youngster to get some goals and build some confidence.

Prediction

It’s a long trip, but Chelsea’s immense squad depth gives them a unique advantage. On paper, the Premier League giants should be winning every single game the Conference League can throw at them, and the match against Astana won’t be any different.

We’re going to go with 3-1 to Chelsea.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Conference League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Leandro Trossard: Out to maintain momentum for the Gunners

While Leandro Trossard has had his struggles this season, the Belgian flyer’s impressive performances against Sporting CP and West Ham United were a huge boost for both him and Arsenal.

By Edward Stratmann

Looking back to a level resembling his best, there’s been plenty to admire about how Trossard has bounced back from a poor run of form.

*Trossard performance summary since the international break*

Having not found the back of the net since September prior to netting vs. Sporting, his return to scoring ways is good news for the title-chasing Gunners, who are now back in the swing of the things after a challenging period – even though their draw with Fulham wasn’t ideal.

Providing a timely reminder of why he’s such a key weapon for Mikel Arteta‘s men, the experienced 30-year-old’s uptick has come at a handy moment, with there being much talk about a new deal in the works for him.

A nightmare for defenders to contain when confident and firing on all cylinders, he can be nigh on unplayable when at the peak of his powers, with his excellent numbers from the previous campaign underlining what an asset he is when at his best.

*Trossard shot map, Premier League 2023/24*

Clinical, instinctive and capable of finding the back of the net in multiple ways, his expert finishing is so crucial towards his success. Two-footed, ingenuitive, rapid to shoot if he spots an opening and so good at shooting while unbalanced, if he gains separation he can be deadly.

Parlaying finesse, placement and power, Trossard’s a massive threat from a host of locations and angles.

*Trossard shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Typically in the right place at the right time, just like he was so often for Graham Potter and Roberto De Zerbi at Brighton & Hove Albion, his intelligent movement accompanies the aforementioned brilliantly and accentuates what a difference-maker he is. Targeting vacant zones clinically and aware of when defenders are preoccupied or out of position, exploiting space in the box is one of his specialities.

*Trossard shooting stats per 90, Premier League 2024/25*

He also impacts proceedings deeper too, where he’s fully in tune with Arteta’s tactical demands, as he smoothly rotates with his teammates, knows when to smartly drop deep to connect play and performs opposite movements to place doubt in the minds of defenders to generates space.

His lethal runs in behind add to his nuisance, for the speedy Belgian, who directs and times his runs with precision, shrewdly pounces once a colleague is in a position to feed him.

Giving the Gunners plenty of verticality, directness and thrust with his ball carrying, the man with tremendous strength and a low centre of gravity to withstand pressure relishes every chance to power upfield.

A crafty passer who can unlock backlines effectively using pinpoint crosses and cutbacks, precise through balls, tidy combination play and through diagonal line breakers, this is another element of his armoury that elevates his influence.

Always one to put in a determined shift on the defensive end as well, this enhances his worth, for he energetically hunts down opponents, is aggressive in the tackle and brings a heap of intensity in his quest to recover possession for his team.

*Trossard defensive numbers per 90, Premier League 2024/25*

Versatile, able to stamp his mark as a starter or off the bench and able to turn a game on its head with a moment of magic, it’s little wonder Arteta rates him so highly. “Trossard, great player. He’s a little magician. He can score on any surface and he’s a big threat; so composed, so cool, he can play in different positions. It’s just a joy to have him in the team,” Arteta insisted.

“Every time you ask him to play, whether it’s wide or as a No. 9, it flows and he’s a real threat. He is so intelligent. He generates spaces and options for people. We knew about his quality and what he could bring to the team. We are really pleased with him; he can play on the right, he can play on the left, he can play as an attacking midfielder, as a No. 9 or a false nine. He’s really contributing to the team and he really takes a lot of responsibility in games to make things happen and we love that.”

Arteta then added this on his mindset, and how he despises being left out of the starting line-up: “He’s upset when he doesn’t play, he’s upset when he enters the pitch, but he still gives you what you need. He’s a great example to others.”

While he’s battled for consistency at times since joining nearly two years ago from Brighton for £27 million, there’s no denying he’s been a fantastic addition to the Gunners all things considered.

Unquestionably one of the finest signings of the Arteta era and always on hand to give the Gunners a vital spark in the final third, the hard-working and uniquely skilled Trossard will be keen to keep laying the hurt on opponents to continue proving why he’s one of the most dangerous attackers in the division.

Although he hasn’t been operating at full tilt this crusade, never underestimate the diminutive dynamo, for he can turn it on at any point to help propel this ambitious Gunners side to victory both domestically and in Europe.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Arsenal game on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Analysis: Should Chelsea be considered serious title contenders?

Chelsea’s dramatic win over Tottenham Hotspur last weekend propelled them up to second spot in the Premier League table, just four points behind Liverpool. While the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal navigate some difficulties, could the Blues be the ones to challenge the Reds for the title?

By Neel Shelat

Chelsea have had quite an eventful couple of years. Despite spending billions of Euros under new ownership, they spent the majority of the last two seasons in the bottom half of the Premier League table and barely ever got close to the top four.

Things did not look to be changing this summer either. The Blues spent close to €250 million on transfer fees alone to sign 11 players, adding to an already-bloated squad. As a result, they were forced to make some questionable sales like regular captain Conor Gallagher’s move to Atlético Madrid and also the scramble to send Raheem Sterling out on loan to Arsenal on deadline day.

They also made a coaching change in the summer, bringing in Enzo Maresca after he led Leicester City to promotion from the Championship. There were questions asked at the time about whether a coach with no prior top-flight experience would be the right person to lead such an unstable club, but he has emphatically proven the doubters wrong so far.

Chelsea are not only in the top four right now, but they are the closest challengers to Liverpool, at least as far as the table is concerned. Naturally, there has been a lot of talk of the Blues being potential title contenders this season, but they might yet have some way to go before reaching that level.

Free-flowing attack

Chelsea’s attack has unquestionably been excellent so far this season. They are the top scorers in the Premier League right now with 35 goals in 15 matches and can boast of the highest xG tally to boot.

Once again, star attacker Cole Palmer has been the key to the Blues’ success. After registering 33 goal involvements in the league last season, he is currently among the top three players in the division, both in terms of goals and assists.

Palmer thrived in a pretty free role given to him by previous head coach Mauricio Pochettino, which Maresca has looked to replicate as best as possible in his more structured system. Lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation on paper, Chelsea move into a 3-2-2-3 attacking structure on the ball as one full-back stays deep to form a back three, the other inverts into midfield and the wingers stay fully high and wide. Depending on which full-back advances, Palmer drifts across to the opposite side as one of two effective attacking midfielders. In that position, he has the freedom to drift around or drop back in the half-space.

The young Englishman has done an excellent job of making the most of this freedom. He likes to receive the ball in the most dangerous positions possible, from where he can utilise his excellent carrying ability to get forward before posing a multifaceted threat in and around the box. In this role, Palmer very much is the glue in Chelsea’s attack as he does an exceptional job of connecting the side and linking up with his teammates besides having the ability to make a telling impact all by himself.

Chelsea have struck a happy balance in their style of play which has helped them get the most out of Palmer and the other attackers. Although Maresca liked to control possession as far as possible at Leicester, he realised the pitfalls of going too far in this direction at Stamford Bridge. So, while his side do try to build out from the back to a large extent, their attacking approach is heavily reliant on transitions.

Interestingly, the Blues have managed to generate a lot of transitions from build-up situations. Right from goalkeeper Robert Sánchez, they do not have the best ball players at the back. This lures opponents into pressing them high up the pitch in order to try and win the ball back in dangerous positions, which is precisely what Tottenham did this weekend. Indeed, Chelsea can end up conceding some risky turnovers in their build-up, but the tradeoff is worth it since their attack can be absolutely deadly in transition.

Besides Palmer, striker Nicholas Jackson also thrives with space in behind, while wingers Pedro Neto and Noni Madueke also enjoy isolating and taking on defenders in transitional situations. It should be no surprise, then, that some of Chelsea’s very best attacking performances came in such open games.

*Chelsea vs. Brighton match details, September 2024*

On the flip side, this does mean that Chelsea may face some difficulties when opponents adapt to their approach and start defending deep instead. In fact, the Blues have had a significant majority of possession in five of the seven Premier League matches in which they have scored less than two goals, so others will surely start noticing this pattern soon.

Defensive deficiencies

Regardless of how well Chelsea’s attack fares against more disciplined defences, their defence might be the biggest holdback. In fact, they have overperformed the most in this respect relative to expected points.

*The alternative xG table, AKA ‘Justice Table’, based on xG stats*

The Blues’ defence has issues in various aspects. For one, their defensive block simply is not solid enough with weaknesses both in terms of personnel and coordination. As a result, they are nowhere near the top teams in terms of xG conceded.

Chelsea’s attacking approach also backfires to an extent in this respect, as their expansive structure in the opposition half leaves them susceptible to counterattacks. It also limits their ability to control matches with possession, making it much more difficult for them to see out a win after taking the lead. Even when the scoreline is in their favour, the best approach for the Blues remains trying to outscore their opponents. That is why they have already been involved in so many goalfests this season.

There does not appear to be a quick fix for these issues, and they may only be exacerbated if opponents manage to better stifle their attack. So, even though recent results have been quite impressive, it is perhaps too soon to consider Chelsea serious Premier League title contenders.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Dec

2024

Preview: Misfiring Juventus meet leaky Man City

As Juventus prepare to take on Manchester City in the Champions League, on Wednesday, there is a clear feeling that these two clubs are searching for some form.

By Kaustubh Pandey

It is fitting that both Juve and City were held to draws at the weekend. Thiago Motta was sent the stands as his side just about managed to take a point from the game against his former club Bologna, as Pep Guardiola‘s Citizens picked up a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace.

Both sides have fallen away from the title races in their respective leagues too. Juve are sixth in the Serie A table, seven points away from league leading Atalanta. City are fourth in the Premier League and are eight points away from Liverpool.

The Bianconeri have eight points in the Champions League and so do City, as both of them look to enter the top eight. There is also a correlation between Motta and Guardiola, with the ex-Italy midfielder having sought inspiration from the Spaniard in the past.

It is quite apparent that both currently face problems at their respective clubs.

Juventus’ struggling attack

While Juve have the most number of cleansheets in Serie A, their attack has been very disappointing.

They have the eighth-highest xG in Serie A and they’ve registered four shots on target per game, which is the ninth-best tally in the league.

Motta is still struggling to tie the attack together and quite a bit of it is because of injuries, a lot of it is because of the profiles of players. Joshua Zirkzee isn’t with him anymore and he has more of a poacher in striker Dušan Vlahović, meaning that Motta’s attacking setup looks disjointed at times.

The Serbian’s last goal in Serie A came in October and the Bianconeri have relied on goals from Samuel Mbangula and Kenan Yıldız, with Nico González injured and Teun Koopmeiners yet to settle in fully.

City’s porous defence

As has been widely documented, Guardiola’s side have suffered from Rodri‘s absence but their problems do go beyond that.

They have the 11th worst xG conceded figure in the Premier League, which shows that the Spaniard hasn’t quite adapted to the midfielder’s injury and City’s aging squad is now slowly but surely showing more and more vulnerabilities.

They have shown a tendency to get exposed on the break and Juve, who do have quick and young players in Yıldız and Mbangula would love to take advantage of that weakness.

Juve have big injury issues

Juve are going through injury issues, with both Bremer and Juan Cabal out due to ACL injuries. Douglas Luiz and Gonzalez are also out, with Arek Milik expected to only return next year. Andrea Cambiaso, who has impressed this season, could also miss the game.

City have problems of their own

Rodri and Oscar Bobb are long-term injury absentees, but Mateo Kovačić and John Stones are also out. Both Manuel Akanji and Nathan Aké also picked up injuries in recent weeks and will miss the clash in Turin.

Prediction

It would be a battle of Juve’s misfiring attack and City’s chaotic defending. Could one cancel out the other? Or could Juve snatch three points in this one?

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Dec

2024

Preview: Arsenal play Monaco in a battle for the top eight

Arsenal and Monaco were seventh and eighth going into the sixth round of the UEFA Champions League’s new group stage (slipping to 10th and 11th after Tuesday’s games), meaning their face-off could well prove to be pivotal in both sides’ quest to earn a direct ticket to the Round of 16. So, even without the threat of elimination for either side, they will likely produce an interesting match.

By Neel Shelat

Defensive deficiencies for both sides

Both teams will be without some key defensive players for this match, albeit for different reasons.

Gabriel Magalhães, Benjamin White and Riccardo Calafiori are all expected to miss the game for Arsenal, while rotation option Takehiro Tomiyasu remains sidelined and Oleksandr Zinchenko also missed the weekend’s match against Fulham. Mikel Arteta found a creative solution for that fixture as Jurriën Timber was shifted across to the left of the back line and Thomas Partey dropped to the right, so it will be interesting to see whether a more conventional option like Kieran Tierney is preferred for this relatively lower-stakes game.

Arsenal drew that game at Fulham, taking their current unbeaten run to six games, in all competitions.

Monaco, on the other hand, have to deal with a couple of suspensions. Versatile defender Wilfried Singo’s red card led to their dramatic defeat against Benfica in the last round, while young Christian Mawissa received his third yellow card of the Champions League season in that game. Krépin Diatta, who has mostly been used as a right back this season, is also out injured.

Despite these absences, both defences can be expected to hold firm as they have conceded the second-lowest xG tally in their respective leagues. In a potentially tight match, Arsenal may well turn to set-pieces again having scored from corners in each of their last four games. However, they might meet their match in this respect too as Monaco have conceded the fewest shots from set-pieces in Ligue 1 this season.

Monaco’s youngsters raring to impress

23-year-old USMNT striker Folarin Balogun will miss the opportunity to reunite with former club Arsenal as he too is out injured, but Monaco have a whole host of other youngsters who will be keen to impress.

Chief among them will be teenage Moroccan international Eliesse Ben Seghir, who is equally capable of scoring and creating goals as his tally of four goals and three assists in Ligue 1 this season shows. Rotating between the left and central attacking positions in Monaco’s 4-2-3-1 formation, he is sure to excite whenever he gets on the ball.

Ben Seghir can rather steal the spotlight away from some of his teammates at times, especially fellow attacker Maghnes Akliouche. The French youth international has four goals and as many assists to his name for Monaco on the back of a busy summer in which he was a part of France’s silver medal-winning Olympic side.

Senegalese midfielder Lamine Camara and Brazilian right back Vanderson should also be considered ones to watch, while 18-year-old striker George Ilenikhena will look to make an impact off the bench again.

Prediction

Monaco have adopted a pretty intense style of play under Adi Hütter this season, but it might just prove to be their undoing against an Arsenal side who have grit and star power in equal measure. The Gunners could well record a narrow victory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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