LaLiga leaders Barcelona have been through a recent run which leaves top spot out of their own hands for now, with just one win in five allowing Real Madrid back into the hunt – they do remain one point clear due to Madrid’s draw last night, but Hansi Flick’s side know their rivals still have a game in hand.
All Barca can do for now is continue trying to take maximum points in their own fixtures, with a home match against relegation-threatened Leganés surely a perfect opportunity to rebuild a winning run.
Leganés have been in the second tier for the past four years so there’s not much recent head to head form to speak of, promoted last term after winning La Segunda, but in their squad there remain a handful of notable players including former Schalke star Matija Nastasić and a link to their weekend hosts in forward Munir El Haddadi. The Moroccan left Barca in 2019 after breaking through as a youngster, and while it hasn’t perhaps gone to plan in his career as early expectations suggested, he remains an experienced attacker in the top flight with perhaps a point to prove.
Recent form
After a magnificent start, Flick’s side have taken a hit in league form of late, though a late win at Dortmund in Europe this week was a significant boost. A shock home defeat to Las Palmas only a fortnight ago shows they are not the finished product though and there remains scope for improvement.
As for Leganés, they’ve only won three all season in the top flight and those have all come at home – yet on the road it’s only three defeats in eight, as they prove the draw masters of LaLiga. All the same, they sit 17th after 16 games, with two teams below them having matches in hand. It’s another tough weekend in a tough overall campaign, with goalscoring a particular trouble for them so far.
Team news
Barcelona remain without goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, defender Andreas Christensen, midfielder Marc Bernal and winger Ansu Fati. Raphinha took a knock against Dortmund but could play anyway, as Flick looks to get his team back to winning ways on the domestic front.
Valentin Rosier is absent through suspension for Leganés, while Dani Raba and Enric Franquesa are out injured.
Player to watch
No need to overthink this one – Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal have expectation on them, especially if Raphinha misses out, but it’s a guarantee of goals they need to win the game. Robert Lewandowski already has 16 LaLiga goals this term from an xG of 15; that’s averaging out at better than a goal per 90 minutes, 3.6 shots per 90 and very nearly 2.0 per 90 on target. The Polish attacker is playing a more refined, restricted game under Flick and it’s keeping him in the most dangerous areas of the pitch more often – and he’s coming up with the goods to justify his place and his salary. Keep feeding him chances and Barcelona will more likely than not stay top.
Prediction
We’ll go with a home victory with room to spare. Barcelona 3 Leganés 0.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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After securing an impressive comeback win at Tottenham last Sunday, the debate around Chelsea’s place in the title race has raged back and forth and after also extending their perfect Conference League run on Thursday, the Blues will now look to extend their good form against local rivals Brentford.
The Bees have been almost perfect when it comes to this season’s league outings at the GTech Community Stadium but Thomas Frank’s side have been largely forgettable on the road. It’s a conundrum we looked at in detail earlier in the week – in an article you can read here.
Brentford’s contrasting home and away form
The Form Guide
Enzo Maresca’s side return to Stamford Bridge having won their last six matches in all competitions and unbeaten in their last nine using the same criteria. Not since their Carabao Cup defeat at Newcastle in October have the Blues been second best when the final whistle blows.
As for opponents Brentford, this season they are a team that Jekyll and Hyde would be most proud of. The Bees have collected an impressive 22 league points from the 24 available at home but have picked up just a single point from the 21 offered on their travels.
Who Are The Key Players
This encounter could well be won by whose strike partnership performs best on the day. The visitors will have to be wary of the 19 league goals that Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson have scored between them this season.
But by comparison, the combined 18 league goals that Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbuemo have bagged should not be overlooked either and although there were fears that Brentford would decline when Ivan Toney cashed in his chips to move to Saudi Arabia, his two former teammates have more than picked up the slack.
Who’s in and who’s out?
After a busy week both home and abroad, Chelsea manager Maresca will ring the changes. Not only because of Pedro Neto’s one-game suspension for five bookings but also due to fitness doubts surrounding the midfield pair of Enzo Fernández and Roméo Lavia.
Brentford will monitor the fitness of Vitaly Janelt before they make the short trip across the capital but he is likely to appear. The same cannot be said for teammate Mathias Jensen who suffered a hamstring injury at the start of the month and is not expected to be fit for this one.
Prediction
Although Chelsea have had to cross continents with their trip to Kazakhstan this week, the additional time in the air should not hamper their bid to beat Brentford on Sunday – especially when you consider just how poor the Bees have been away from home this season.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The Etihad Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United in recent times. Indeed, the Red Devils haven’t won at the home of Manchester City since March 2021.
Sunday’s match, however, presents United with an opportunity to end their winless away run in the derby with City in bad shape.
Pep Guardiola is currently enduring his worst run of form as Manchester City manager. The Premier League champions have lost seven of their last 10 games in all competitions, winning just one. Incredibly, City have conceded more goals since the start of November than any other team in Europe’s Big Five leagues.
Manchester United have also endured their own struggles of late as Rúben Amorim instills his ideas on a team that lacked an identity under Erik ten Hag. However, Thursday’s comeback win over Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League hinted at a group of players that is starting to fight under their new manager.
Sunday’s Manchester Derby will be one between two teams that have lost their way of late, placing additional significance on the outcome. A win for either side could be the catalyst for them to start a more positive run of form over the winter period.
Key players
Ordinarily, Erling Haaland would be pinpointed as Manchester City’s primary threat such is his standing as the best goalscorer of his generation. However, the Norwegian has scored just once in his last four league appearances and has cut an isolated figure as the English champions have struggled for positive results.
Kevin de Bruyne has started City’s last three matches and has been an important source of creativity in recent weeks. Jack Grealish could also play in central midfield as he did against Juventus.
At the back, Rúben Dias is expected to start in central defence. City need the Portugal international to steady a backline that has been extremely fragile over the last two months.
Manchester United will look to Bruno Fernandes as their creator-in-chief with Ramus Højlund entering Sunday’s match in the midst of a scoring run that has seen the Dane find the back of the net five times in his last four games.
Højlund recent performances
Leny Yoro could start after making his first Premier League appearance in the defeat to Nottingham Forest with Amad Diallo likely to feature in the right wing back position having impressed in Amorim’s first few matches in charge.
Team news
Rodri remains sidelined with the Euro 2024 winner’s absence in the centre of the pitch still being keenly felt by Manchester City. They have nobody else who can do the job of the 28-year-old.
John Stones, Nathan Aké, Mateo Kovačić and Oscar Bobb are also expected to miss Sunday’s Manchester Derby with Phil Foden also a doubt after watching Wednesday’s defeat to Juventus as an unused substitute.
Rico Lewis will serve a one-match suspension after being sent off in last weekend’s 2-2 draw away to Crystal Palace, leaving Guardiola short of another option who can operate in defence and midfield.
Jonny Evans, Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelof will all miss Sunday’s trip to the Etihad Stadium for Manchester United, but Amorim will otherwise have a fully fit squad to choose from.
Prediction
With both defences somewhat depleted or adapting to new circumstances, we’re expecting goals at both ends. So let’s go with a high scoring draw; Manchester City 2-2 Manchester United.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Mid-table inconsistency against title favourites – only one way this goes, right? Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Madrid, 12th against potential table-toppers given the game in hand, isn’t generally one which stands out as a surprise result or banana skin for Carlo Ancelotti’s side – but even so maybe there’s pause for thought.
Madrid have won just one of the last four LaLiga meetings between these teams, didn’t beat Rayo at all last term, and still have a host of big-name players out injured.
Stranger things have happened, but even so the odds will be stacked in Madrid’s favour, not the least of which is the scoring form of Jude Bellingham. The Englishman, pushed higher upfield of late once more, has netted in each of his last four games, while Kylian Mbappé has also scored in three of those. Rayo goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has the highest save percentage of all stoppers in LaLiga, with 76.6%; there’s a good chance they’ll need him in that kind of form on Saturday night.
Form guide
Rayo have been wildly unpredictable this term, winning five but losing six, conceding six in three straight defeats before keeping a clean sheet to win 1-0 against Valencia last time out. Finishing 12th would of course be a big positive for them after ending 17th last term, though as that came at the end of one win in six they’ll hope for more consistency – key word again – this time around.
Real Madrid won the title at a canter last year but are chasing Barcelona this term. However, four wins in the last five mean they’re just two points off top spot with a game in hand now, so maintaining pressure on Hansi Flick’s side is of paramount importance. Five wins in the last seven across all competitions have only seen them beaten by Liverpool in Europe and Athletic Club domestically, but they’ve been remarkably regular in beating middle of the road sides.
Team news
Raúl de Tomás and Pelayo Feráandez are the only absent faces for Rayo, but Real continue to be without David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy in a full potential defence. Eduardo Camavinga is also sidelined and Mbappé went off early in the midweek win at Atalanta, so will miss out here as a result.
Key player
It’s Bellingham for Real Madrid and not for the first time. The attacking midfielder has been able to regularly push on again over the past few matches, netting both from open play and the penalty spot. He has five league goals from an xG of 3.2, is in the 97th percentile for successful passes this season, 92nd for touches per 90 and 91st for duels won in his position. He’s an all-round force on and off the ball and now the goals are flowing again too.
Bellingham’s last four games
Prediction
Real Madrid to get the win they need, but not without a struggle and this looks a game in which both teams get on the scoresheet in. Rayo 1 Real 2.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Arsenal will host Everton at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon. The Gunners will be hoping to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table, while Sean Dyche’s side will be looking to build some momentum after an impressive victory last time out.
Mikel Arteta has confirmed ahead of the game against Everton that Gabriel Magalhães has been involved in first-team training and could be available to face the Toffees. The Brazilian defender has missed their last three matches in all competitions, but he could make his return on Saturday.
Riccardo Calafiori, who hasn’t played since the end of November, won’t be fit in time for this one.
Mr Reliable isn’t slowing down
Everton will have one huge mission on Saturday, and that’s to true and shut down Bukayo Saka. Many sides have attempted, and most have failed, with the England international producing a whopping 15 goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season.
His attacking production has been superb this season, and Arsenal are heavily relying on him in attack to produce. Saka sits top of the assists charts for the Gunners, with Declan Rice in second with just two. Set-pieces have been a key weapon for Arsenal this season, but they’re coming up against a side who are strong defensively.
Broja the secret weapon
Armando Broja, who signed for Everton on loan in the summer transfer window, has missed the majority of the season due to injury. Dyche confirmed this week that Broja would be ‘around it’ when it comes to a place in the starting XI, after making his return with a cameo against Wolves last week.
Broja played around 10 minutes vs Wolves, but it was an impressive cameo nonetheless, and he could be a bit of a secret weapon off the bench for Everton, who have no fresh injury concerns.
Everton have set the standard now
The Toffees secured an emphatic 4-0 victory over Wolves in the last Premier League game, despite scoring just 10 times in the previous 13 games before that. It was somewhat of an anomaly, but with all four goals coming from set pieces, it’s a sign that Dyche might be going back to basics.
Big Chances Created, Premier League 2024/2025
With just 24 big chances created this season, the lowest in the Premier League, Dyche needs to find a way of producing opportunities for his side, and he did just that against Wolves last time out.
Prediction
Everton’s only victories this season have come against Wolves, Ipswich, and Crystal Palace, who are 19th, 18th, and 17th respectively. It’s been a campaign of minimal giant killings, while Arsenal are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.
The Gunners are also yet to lose at home, so it’s difficult to see past a straightforward victory for the London club. We’re going for a 3-1 win for Arteta’s side in this one.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Liverpool host Fulham on Saturday afternoon looking to maintain their healthy lead the top of the Premier League. The game at Anfield has the potential to be a bit of a banana skin for the Reds though.
Arne Slot’s start to life as Liverpool manager has been near perfect.
The Reds have won 11 of their 14 Premier League games and currently have a four point lead at the top with a game in hand. The Merseysiders have a 100% record in the Champions League following their 1-0 win over Girona on Wednesday. They’re also into the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup.
Performances have been a little sluggish over recent outings though. A heavy schedule, combined with injuries to a number of players, have left Liverpool looking a little leggy. They weren’t at their best in the 3-3 draw with Newcastle United and struggled early on against LaLiga side Girona in midweek.
They can’t afford another uninspiring showing on Sunday. Not against a team like Fulham.
The Cottagers are 10th in the Premier League table but they are just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City.
Marco Silva’s side held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw last time out and have frustrated big sides this season. They drew with Spurs and had Manchester City on the ropes in a 3-2 loss. Fulham actually had an xG haul of 2.3 at the Etihad and, on another day, likely surprise the reigning champions in a shock upset.
They are one or two positive results away from being genuine challengers for a European spot. If they pick up a positive result at Anfield, momentum could be on their side heading into the busy festive period.
Previous Encounters
Fulham have claimed victory against the Reds in just one of their previous 14 encounters. That win arrived during Liverpool’s forgettable run in 2020/21, when Jürgen Klopp was having to navigate his way through the worst injury crisis of his managerial career.
Liverpool have won 10 of these 14 meetings. They have won four of the last five across all competitions against the Cottagers but it is worth noting that they have only kept one clean sheet in these games. Fulham always cause the Reds some problems. Expect them to do the same on Saturday.
Current form
Over the past five matches in the English top-flight, Liverpool have the joint-best record along with Chelsea, with 13 points from 15 on offer. The Reds have scored 12 and conceded six in these matches, with their impervious start to the campaign slowing down a little. They’re now giving up goals.
However, they’re still difficult to defeat. In fact, their last loss came back in September.
Fulham’s form has been decent over the past five league games. They rank sixth with eight points over this period and they have lost just one match.
The Injury situation
Liverpool are without Ibrahima Konaté, Conor Bradley and Kostas Tsimikas. Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa could return to the matchday squad though which would be a welcome boost for an attack solely reliant on Mohamed Salah for their goals at the minute.
Alisson made his first appearance since October in the 1-0 win over Girona and put in a Man of the Match performance for the Reds. That is a huge boost for Slot.
Fulham are without a number of key players. Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen, the club’s first choice centre-back pairing, are both missing. The former is suspended while the latter has a calf issue. Tom Cairney is suspended while Harrison Reed and Reiss Nelson both miss out through injury.
Prediction
It won’t be pretty but we think another Liverpool win is on the cards. With the cavalry potentially returning for the Reds, they have multiple ways to win matches and their attacking depth will be the difference on the day.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The match between West Ham United and Wolves had been trailed as the end of the line for the losing manager – whether it might go to a penalty shootout in the event of a draw was not made clear! – but as things turned out West Ham won 2-1, and the grip upon the guillotine that’s been hanging over Julen Lopetegui this last couple of weeks tightened a little.
Confirmation came through the following morning that Loptegui’s counterpart Gary O’Neil had also received a reprieve, though for how long this might be remains up in the air. He’s been confirmed as being in charge for this Saturday’s match against Ipswich Town, but the result of that may yet determine whether he’s still there for the one after that.
The reasons for this uneasy state of detente seem clear. On one hand, Wolves have been terrible this season. Scoring goals hasn’t been the problem. They’ve scored 23 in 15 games, four more than fifth-placed Nottingham Forest. The problem has been just about everything else. They’ve conceded six against Chelsea, five against Brentford, and four against Bournemouth and Everton, which came in successive matches.
They’re entertainers, for sure. The total of 61 goals that have been scored in their 15 matches is the highest in the division. It’s just that Wolves have conceded 38 of them, and have only won twice. They’ve been in the relegation places for the whole season except for one week towards the end of last month when they won 4-1 at Fulham, and they’re currently in 19th place, below Ipswich on goal difference and above only Southampton.
But on the other hand, the decision to sack O’Neil would not necessarily be a straightforward one because of the time of year. For bigger clubs, the ability to simply step in and poach a manager from elsewhere means that the sack could come at any time of the year. Manchester United, for example, clearly already had Rúben Amorim targeted as the replacement before they offloaded Erik Ten Hag. Ultimately, they have the clout to be able to move in this way.
But things aren’t quite as simple as this for smaller clubs such as Wolves. If they’re to find the right man to properly take the club forward, they have to punch above their weight in terms of who they bring in and the middle of the season, when many of those readily available will be those already jettisoned by other clubs in free fall themselves, might not be the best time of year to pull the diamond from the rough that they need.
The performances of the other teams near the bottom of the table have been such that, despite having accumulated nine points from fifteen games, Wolves are still in touch near the bottom of the table, with only a four-point gap separating them from Crystal Palace and five from Leicester and Everton. But should they lose to Ipswich, that gap may start to look considerably trickier. With another critical match at Leicester on the 22 December, they could look very much on the ropes by Christmas should they not win at least one of these matches.
With a rush of matches to follow over the Christmas and New Year period and the transfer window reopening for a month on 1 January, the choice is to stick or twist. The noises to have come from Molineux seem to indicate that O’Neil is believed to still have the skill-set to make this work, that the team had a difficult start to the season and has had some horrible injury problems, and that the first-team squad is unbalanced, with a particular lack of cover in defence.
But it does all feel like something of a gamble, whether over a decision that they do make or one that they don’t. What if they stick with O’Neil through the January window, allow him to bring in the players that he wants, and then find that results don’t improve and that if they are to make that switch, the new incumbent will have to make do with the players that they inherit?
Wolves’ defeat at West Ham was fairly narrow. These were ultimately two not particularly good football teams, by the standards of the modern Premier League. There was one point at which the two teams gave possession to each other four or five times in four or five seconds, and the performances of both seemed nervy and uncertain, as though the weight of the speculation was having a physical effect.
But memories will stretch back further than this and Wolves’ performance in the 4-0 defeat at Everton on the previous Wednesday was one of the very worst by any team in this division so far this season. If it turns out that a failure to sack O’Neil turns out to be a mistake, history will likely judge that the morning after that game was the opportunity that could have been taken.
The fact that Wolves did not take that action at that time may be a tacit admission that there is a greater degree of responsibility to be shared, here. Can the relative decline of the club in recent times be pinned solely to the apparent loosening of ties with super-agent Jorge Mendes over the last couple of years? Because if that is the case, then perhaps it’s also the case that far bigger structural changes are needed behind the scenes at Molineux than can be carried out when the team is having to play a match every three days.
With the owners of the club having already stated that they want the playing side of the club to be sustainable, anyone taking the Wolves job would be aware there wouldn’t be much money available and a lot of work to do. Perhaps in that light, it’s not quite so surprising that Gary O’Neil remains in position at Wolves with the Christmas rush now fast approaching.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Arne Slot would be the first to admit that there are fewer problems in his early life at Liverpool than he anticipated, but there could be a growing concern over his frontmen.
After 22 games – and 20 across the Premier League and Champions League – Slot‘s start at Liverpool can only be viewed as a success; top of both tables and into the Carabao Cup quarter-finals with only one loss so far.
But while Liverpool are comfortable at the summit both domestically and in Europe, they are primarily for their defensive efforts and not their output in attack.
Three teams – Chelsea (35), Brentford (31) and Tottenham (31) – have scored more goals in the Premier League, with the Reds equal with Arsenal on 29, while five teams – Barcelona (21), Dortmund (18), Bayern Munich (17), Atlético Madrid (14) and Feyenoord (14) – have netted more and two have matched their 13 in the Champions League.
Liverpool lead both tables by virtue of their remarkable ability to control games and deliver the killing blow when it matters. It is which distinguishes Slot’s approach from that of his predecessor, Jürgen Klopp.
However, it should also be noted that Liverpool are among the top five teams for big chances missed in both competitions: second in the Premier League with 35 (2.5 per game) and fifth in the Champions League with 13 (2.17 per game).
Both tallies are either equal to or more than their number of goals scored, though that speaks as much to the quality of chances they are creating as it does their failure to convert them, as they also rank first and fourth for shots on target per game in league and Europe respectively.
Slot will acknowledge that Liverpool can and should score more, but there is also an acceptance that his Liverpool is still a work in progress, and that they are on top despite this profligacy can only be a major positive.
That is where their two No. 9s come in.
Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez are, by Slot’s own admission, two very different strikers – and by the same token, their respective flaws are of a very different complexion.
“I think Diogo is a bit more a striker that can also go into the midfield and play as a false nine or a nine-and-a-half, where Darwin is more the target man, that finishes off a good attack,” the head coach explained in September.
Having two different strikers is no bad thing, but more often than not a manager will have a plan A and a plan B, and the start of the season showed that Jota is very much his plan A.
Jota player traits
Núñez started only three of the first 11 games of the season – one in the league, one in Europe, one in the cup – while Jota started nine; in that time, Jota scored four goals and laid on two assists, with Núñez scoring one and assisting one.
The 11th of those games, the 2-1 win at home to Chelsea, saw the Portuguese forced off after half an hour with a rib injury as Núñez took over, fulfilling a surprise man-marking role on Cole Palmer in an unorthodox display which impressed Slot.
Jota has been sidelined since, sitting out of the last 11 games in a stark reminder of the worrying fragility of a player who has now missed 94 for club and country to nine different injuries in the past four-and-a-half seasons (almost 21 per season on average).
Of those 11 most recent Jota-less games, Núñez has started eight and come off the bench in the remaining three, but the Uruguayan has managed just two goals in that time – both, to his credit, match-winners.
Núñez player traits
Núñez is a player of fleeting brilliance – and in fact, as recently as October this writer discussed two performances in four days that showed Núñez could fit in under Slot – but the weight of evidence is that this may never be enough.
He is, after all, Liverpool’s club-record signing at £85 million and one who, almost midway through his third season, is in no way assured of a starting place up front.
That largely appears to be due to Slot preferring a different type of striker, with the Dutchman even turning to a natural left winger in Luis Díaz as his deep-dropping No. 9 in the victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Manchester City.
Díaz scored a hat-trick against Leverkusen – two as a striker and one after moving back to the left – with Slot making it clear afterwards why he had been preferred to Núñez.
“I think [Jonathan] Tah is one of the best defenders in Germany – maybe the best defender in Germany – and he likes maybe to play more against a target man, someone who is there in the middle,” he explained.
“We chose to play Lucho more from the left or the midfield and maybe surprise him afterwards with runs in behind – not only him, but in general.”
Again, in two big-game scenarios, Slot opted for a nine-and-a-half rather than a target man, with this a big indicator of how he plans to build moving forwards.
And with both Jota and Núñez proving consistently unreliable for very different reasons, it should come as no surprise that reports are beginning to emerge over Liverpool assessing the market for a new centre-forward.
While Jayden Danns, 18, offers an intriguing long-term project in the academy, Brighton’s João Pedro, 23, has been linked by Brazilian outlet UOL and very much fits the brief as a nine-and-a-half, while Wolves’ Matheus Cunha, 25, is another who suits the mould.
Pedro vs. Cunha stats comparison, Premier League 2024/25
Two Brazilians who are comfortable leading the line but also more than willing to drop deep and link play while allowing their fellow forwards to flourish, there are many similarities with a former Liverpool striker who would have been Slot’s dream: Roberto Firmino.
Both boast Premier League experience but are yet to break through to elite level, which is often the market Liverpool have shopped in under Fenway Sports Group, reinforced again this year by the reappointment of Michael Edwards as CEO of football and the hiring of Richard Hughes as sporting director.
When Edwards announced his departure from the club after five years as sporting director in 2021, he underlined his own admiration for Firmino, saying: “One of the other questions I always get asked is ‘who was/is your favourite player?’…all I will say is my dog is called Bobby.”
His and Slot’s vision for the heart of Liverpool’s attack seems to align, and with neither Jota or Núñez proving the perfect fit up front so far, it is easy to see the Reds seeking out Bobby mk. II in 2025.
(Images from IMAGO)
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We’re entering that point of the Premier League campaign. Every single match now feels pivotal in the grand scheme of things. While there’s still a lot of football to be played, dropped points here can feel so damaging. So, with this in mind, what is there to look forward to this weekend?
Liverpool have dropped points in just three of their 14 Premier League matches this term. The Reds are four points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand over their rivals following the postponement of the Merseyside derby.
Arne Slot’s side have the second best home record in the English top flight having taken 18 points from a possible 21. They have scored 13 goals at Anfield and conceded on just three occasions.
The Cottagers have been one of the surprise packages in the Premier League this term. Marco Silva’s men are 10th in the Premier League, just two points behind fifth-placed Nottingham Forest and four behind fourth-placed Manchester City.
Fulham have won just one of their previous 14 matches against Liverpool across all competitions but do come into this match in good form. Their points haul of 23 is matched by their Expected Points total, pointing to the fact performances have matched results.
They have also done well against big sides this term. They’ve drawn games against Spurs and Arsenal and they picked up three points against an impressive Brighton side. The Cottagers lost 3-2 to reigning champions Manchester City but posted an Expected Goals total of 2.3 in that defeat. They deserved to win.
Silva possesses players who can cause teams trouble and Raúl Jiménez looks back to his best. And if Liverpool aren’t at their best, they weren’t in mid-week against Girona in the Champions League, an upset could be on the cards.
Overperformers vs Underperformers
Ahead of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, a lot of people tipped Aston Villa for another top four push after completing some good business during the summer transfer window. A lot of people, myself included, also thought Nottingham Forest would be involved in a relegation battle.
Yet here we are in December with Forest sat above Villa in the table. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are in fifth while Unai Emery has his team sitting in sixth. They’re level on points but the narratives around both teams could not be any more different.
Forest are defying the odds. Villa are struggling to live up to expectations.
The Villans make the trip to the City Ground this weekend looking to make it three wins on the bounce in the Premier League after a difficult period. Across their last five games in the English top flight, they have picked up just seven points. Forest have tailed off a little too, claiming just six points during the same period. However, they did beat Manchester United at Old Trafford last time out and they have upped their game against the more traditional top sides, beating Liverpool and drawing with Chelsea.
It is worth noting that Forest’s home form hasn’t been great – they rank 12th with 11 points from 21 on offer – while Villa are decent enough on their travels, winning three from seven matches.
For both teams it is a big game in the grand scheme of things.
The Manchester derby
Both teams are in dire need of a reaction and a performance.
Few would’ve expected to be saying this about Manchester City in December but the reigning champions need a big showing against their neighbours. There’s more at stake than just three points and local pride.
City have won one of their last 10 across all competitions and fell to defeat again in midweek as Juventus claimed a 2-0 win in the Champions League. By the time kick off comes around, the reigning champions could be five points behind Arsenal and 11 points off of leaders Liverpool.
The champions are in freefall. A win here in the Manchester derby could be the catapult needed to get things going again. A loss could end their title hopes before the turn of the New Year. City have the quality but they’re lacking in confidence.
United need something. They need anything to really kickstart the Rúben Amorim era.
The 4-0 win over Everton was a false dawn. They lost 3-2 to Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford in their last game in the league and have suffered back-to-back losses in the Premier League under the Portuguese tactician. If results don’t go their way this weekend, they finish in 14th place.
The result here could be seismic in Manchester and across the Premier League.
The Saints are bottom of the Premier League and have just one win to their name in the English top-flight this term. They have conceded 31 goals and found the back of the net on just 11 occasions. Russell Martin’s job as manager is under threat with the one-time Swansea boss reluctant to switch things up in a bid to extend Southampton’s stint in the top tier.
His team are regularly playing into trouble and making life difficult for themselves.
Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher believes the Aussie tactician is too stubborn.
“I wake up every morning hoping the sun is shining, so I can put some shorts and a T-shirt on but if it’s raining, you put your coat on.”
Spurs held a 2-0 lead over Chelsea last time out but imploded to lose 4-3. The result left them 11th in the Premier League and they lost Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero to injuries. The pressure is mounting on the former Celtic boss and defeat here could spell the end for him.
Likewise, though, a heavy loss for Southampton could spell the end for Martin.
The stakes are high.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Thomas Frank’s men have been almost perfect at home this term, winning seven of their eight matches at the Gtech Community Stadium. The Bees have racked up 22 points from the 24 on offer, matching their haul from last season on home turf with 11 matches still to play. In fact, they already have more wins than they managed during the 2023/24 campaign (five).
Brentford home and away points breakdown
They find themselves in ninth position in the English top-flight, just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City, purely because of their home form. Remarkably, 96% of their points haul this term has come from home fixtures. In their seven away games, Brentford have picked up just a single point.
Like I said, they’re one of the Premier League’s greatest mysteries this season.
Brentford have the best home record. They are also the only team to have picked up 20 or more points in front of home fans. For context, table toppers Liverpool rank second on 18 points.
It is a deserved record too. Frank’s men have scored 26 goals from an Expected Goals total of 18. Tottenham are the only other team in the league to have scored 20 or more in the English top-flight.
Premier League home form table, 2024/25
The Bees are a little leaky defensively, conceding 14 goals from an Expected Goals Against total of 11. But their attack is bailing them out of trouble. The players Frank has at his disposal in the final third are strong enough to beat the majority of teams in the Premier League. Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo, the returning Igor Thiago, Fabio Carvalho, Kevin Schade, Keane Lewis-Potter and Mikel Damsgaard give Brentford some serious depth.
As things stand, Mbeumo and Wissa have both scored nine goals each in the Premier League while Schade is on four. You’d be forgiven for forgetting that Brentford lost Ivan Toney in the summer.
Brentford top scorers, Premier League 2024/25
So, their incredible home numbers are largely due to their remarkable attack.
Brentford have scored three or more in six of their eight matches at the Gtech. They have four or more in four of their last five home fixtures. They hit Wolves for five and found the back of the net on four occasions in games against Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Newcastle United
Home has been a safe haven for the Bees. But they’ve been kind of fortunate with who they have faced this term. They have, for example, played four of the bottom five. And this has, no doubt, helped massively. Momentum is on their side and the fixtures have fallen favourably.
Last season, Brentford started the campaign hosting Spurs. They never really had a good run of fixtures at home without one of the clubs pushing for a top six visiting the Gtech. This could be why their record wasn’t great.
Frank and his team ranked 16th last season for home form, winning just five of their 19 matches. They racked up 22 points and conceded more goals (34) than they scored (29). The fixture list really does impact results, form and momentum.
Away from home, it has been a different story for the Bees this season.
The Bees also have the joint-worst away record, along with bottom of the table Southampton.
They have played seven and won zero games. They have suffered six defeats, scored just five goals and have conceded 14. Again, the numbers back these results up. Brentford have an xG of 5.8 and have an xG Against total of 14.4.
Last season, their away form wasn’t great either. They won five of their 19 matches and picked up 17 points on the road.
Again, though, this could be tied to fixtures. Brentford have already faced league leaders Liverpool, reigning champions Manchester City and European hopefuls Spurs and Aston Villa on their travels. They have also made the trip to Old Trafford. The Red Devils aren’t the team they once were but it is still quite a daunting start to the season, isn’t it?
Anfield, the Etihad, Villa Park, Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur stadium in five of their seven away ties.
On the surface, Brentford’s form looks to be a bit of a mystery. In reality, though, they’ve had good luck at home and no luck on their travels. This could soon be reversed. On the horizon, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Villa soon make the trip to the Gtech while the Bees travel to St Mary’s, the King Power and Selhurst Park. Their home form could tail off while their away form improves.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.
