Page 69 – The Pulse of Football

Oct

2024

Mateo Retegui: Thriving for his new club and his adopted nation

Mateo Retegui didn’t even speak Italian when he was first called up to the Italian national team. Born and raised in Argentina, the young striker wasn’t on the radar of most Azzurri supporters when Robert Mancini selected him for a squad in March 2023.

By Graham Ruthven

Having played his entire career up to that point in Argentina, few in Italy hadn’t even heard of Retegui.

They know all about him now, though. Not only is Retegui – eligible for the Azzurri through his grandfather – a regular for Italy, he is leading the Serie A scoring chart this season having netted 10 times in 10 games for Atalanta. While many questioned the Bergamo club’s summer signing of the 25-year-old, Retegui is flourishing as the next great Italian forward.

Italy has produced more than its fair share of great forwards over the decades. Roberto Baggio, Paolo Rossi, Alessandro Del Piero, Francesco Totti, Gianluca Vialli and Christian Vieri, not to mention a few others, were all legitimate legends, but the country hasn’t had an elite level striker for a long time.

This is partly why there is so much excitement around Retegui. He is the sort of player Italy has spent the last decade looking for with Gian Piero Gasperini getting the best out of a player who scored just seven league goals for Genoa last season. The Atalanta manager has helped push Retegui to a level few believed he would ever reach.

Retegui has scored all sorts of goals for Atalanta this season. Three of his 10 league goals have come from his head. He has scored goals off both feet. He has poached inside the six-yard box and has also scored from outside the box – as he did by guiding home a finish from 18 yards out against Verona last weekend.

Gasperini has focused Retegui by adopting a 3-4-2-1 shape that sees Charles De Ketelaere and Ademola Lookman occupy the areas either side of Atalanta’s new centre forward with wing backs also positioned high to add another dimension to the attack. With Gianluca Scamacca out injured, Retegui became the new focal point.

While it is pertinent to note that Retegui is out-performing his Expected Goals (xG) of 6.8 in Serie A this season, that still places him among the division’s best performing players. Only Dušan Vlahović (7.4) and Moise Kean (6.8) are even close to the 25-year-old and neither have got to double figures in actual goals.

At Genoa, Retegui earned a reputation for being a hard-working, but limited player. His perceived lack of technical ability was frequently highlighted with his former employers not exactly distraught to lose a forward whose all-round game was believed to be inadequate. €28m was seen as fair value.

Under Gasperini, this perception has drastically changed. Retegui is doing a better job of linking up with the players around him, earning his place in an Atalanta side that plays a brand of modern, dynamic football. The understanding between Lookman and Retegui is particularly strong, combining for two league goals so far this season.

“He’s a great player but also a calm guy,” said Luciano Spalletti after the last international window which saw Retegui score in back-to-back UEFA Nations League games against Belgium and Israel. “He’s lethal inside the box and has learned to work more with the team. He will become a top player… he’s perfect.”

With Spalletti building for the 2026 World Cup, Retegui is expected to be a key figure for his adopted national team. Euro 2024 was a disappointment as Italy exited in the round of 16, but the Azzurri’s form since then has been encouraging with Spalletti’s team unbeaten in matches against France, Israel and Belgium. Retegui has featured in every game.

Atalanta’s business model as a club is to be a springboard in the transfer market. Indeed, La Dea have sold at least one prize asset every summer for the last few years. This summer, it was Teun Koopmeiners. Last summer, it was Rasmus Højlund. The summer before that, it was Cristian Romero.

The way Retegui is going, he might be next to draw interest from Europe’s elite, but he already appears to be in the perfect place for his development. Atalanta are playing in the Champions League this season and are once again competitive near the top end of the Serie A table. Retegui is spearheading a team on an upward trajectory.

Retegui’s career path has been unorthodox. He moved through several clubs in Argentina including Boca Juniors before making the switch to Serie A last summer. Now, he is the most prolific Italian goalscorer of his generation and is improving with every match. The long list of Azzurri legends that includes Baggio, Rossi, De Piero and co. could soon have a new name.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Leverkusen game on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW10

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

I mentioned Rayan Aït-Nouri (listed as 4.6m in FPL) in my article ahead of Gameweek 8, but now he is even more relevant because of who Wolves face over the next few matches. The managers who bought him ahead of Gameweek 9 were rewarded with a goal, his third goal this season! He shows elite attacking threat for a defender with 0.19 xGI (Expected Goal Involvements) per 90 minutes. There are some worries that Wolves might return to a back four in terms of their defensive shape, but Aït-Nouri should continue to play pretty offensively. Although Gary O’Neil‘s side are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, on paper, I believe Aït-Nouri can provide some serious value at just 4.6m and if they happen to keep a clean sheet, we might be looking at 10+ points because of his offensive threat and bonus points. The only slight worry with him is that he is his discipline record. He’s on four yellow cards and if he gets a fifth, he will be suspended for a game.

Mohamed Salah (12.7m) delivered a double digit FPL points haul against Arsenal in Gameweek 9. The Egyptian king has delivered six such performances (10+ points) in the first nine rounds of the season, scoring 6 goals and getting 5 assists. Against the Gunners, he was the one out of Liverpool’s front three that looked closest to creating something against a tight Arsenal defence. He finished with xGI of 0.43, which is far below his season average of 0.77 per 90. Liverpool have some good fixtures coming up and there is nothing that indicates that Salah will stop performing. Many Fantasy managers may be getting frustrated with Erling Haaland (15.4m) and believe he isn’t returning on that hefty price tag. I think shifting the money into the midfield could be a very viable strategy, even if it requires at least two transfers.

Long shot

Yoane Wissa (5.9m) has been sensational this season, scoring five goals and getting one assist in just six appearances. Wissa is only owned by 3.9% of the managers due to him picking up an injury against Manchester City which left him on the sidelines for a few weeks, but now he’s back with what has now been credited as scoring a brace against Ipswich. He only played 24 minutes in Brentford’s midweek Carabao Cup game, which means he is most probably well rested ahead of Gameweek 10. His stats are also really impressive, averaging 0.93 xGI per 90 in his 406 minutes this season. A great differential I expect to perform well going forward.

Upcoming games to follow

There aren’t that many games I am really looking forward to from an FPL perspective this weekend. Arsenal play Newcastle away, with the Magpies having only managed to score once in their last three matches. William Saliba is back from suspension, but Gabriel might now be missing through injured, but nevertheless, I do expect Arsenal to perform well defensively.

Liverpool play Brighton at Anfield, and could be weakened with rumours that defensive lynchpin Lewis Dunk is out for as long as a month. As mentioned earlier, I believe Salah will be a wonderful pick this gameweek and if you own him, I would captain him.

The last game I am tracking is Southampton vs Everton. I have owned Dominic Calvert-Lewin (6.0m) for a few weeks now, something which has turned out pretty badly despite him racking up good attacking numbers. This will probably be his last chance to prove himself, and if he fails to do so I am likely binning him ahead of Gameweek 11.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Analysis: Real Madrid’s issues go beyond Clásico thrashing

Real Madrid went into last weekend’s Clásico aiming to match Barcelona’s record of going unbeaten for 43 matches in LaLiga. Instead, they were given a stark reality check in a four-goal thrashing. The European champions have not had the best of starts to the season, so they have a lot to work on if they are to win yet more silverware by the end of it.

By Neel Shelat

Real Madrid haven’t looked at their sharpest since the start of the season, and results are finally catching up with them. After going unbeaten for their first ten games and winning seven of them, Los Blancos have lost two of the last five, including away at Lille in the Champions League and, of course, the most recent Clásico.

In each of these games, their performances have been pretty subpar. They just about edged out Villarreal in a relatively quiet game, were outplayed by Celta Vigo at times and could easily have lost to Dortmund before the German side made some questionable tactical tweaks and threw away the game.

The underlying numbers give a good account of where Carlo Ancelotti’s side are at the moment. They have already dropped six points behind Barcelona in LaLiga, and the Expected Points figures suggest they aren’t performing at the level to mount a serious title challenge unless Barcelona significantly drop off.

*The FotMob xG table aka Justice Table for LaLiga, 2024/25*

Of course, Barça have been great under Hansi Flick so far, but Real Madrid only have themselves to blame for not keeping up.

Unorganised defending

Real Madrid enjoyed an excellent 2023/24 season as they won both LaLiga and the Champions League in style. Tactically, they were often unplayable thanks to their incredibly dynamic attack which ran rings around opposition defences, but they did have some underlying defensive issues which were largely masked. Naturally, most opponents were quite cautious against them given the attacking firepower at their disposal, but certain big games showed that Los Blancos’ defence could be gotten at with the right approach.

This was most evident in the Champions League knockouts, in which Ancelotti’s side rode their luck a fair bit. They were let off the hook by RB Leipzig’s wastefulness in the Round of 16 and were very fortunate to be able to take the quarterfinal to penalties as Manchester City missed truckloads of chances.

In fact, their initial setup in the final was very poor and exploitable too. Borussia Dortmund created quite a few presentable chances – amassing 1.88 xG in the first half alone – but they just failed to find the back of the net. The German side then fell away in the second half as Real Madrid made a couple of adjustments, ultimately winning thanks to a pair of fairly late goals.

There are a few factors that explain Real Madrid’s defensive issues, but chief among them is their very tactical setup. Ancelotti has tended to set his side up in a variant of the 4-4-2 formation out of possession, usually starting with a 4-3-1-2 high block last season as Jude Bellingham stepped up. However, their press was rarely ever properly coordinated as the English midfielder tended to be quite intense while Vinícius Júnior took it very easy, so opponents that wanted to play out from the back could easily do so. Older players like Luka Modrić and Toni Kroos didn’t help their cause in midfield either, so Real Madrid’s high block and press were very porous.

Ultimately, it was the top-class defensive quality of their younger midfielders and centre-backs that led Los Blancos to concede the lowest xG tally in the league. These players made their deeper block much more solid while the counterattacking threat of Vinícius instilled fear into opponents, but from an organisational point of view, Real Madrid were far from the best team in Spain – let alone Europe or the world.

Since they lead and win games more often than not, Real Madrid’s inability to press generally isn’t a problem because they do not need to force the issue. However, this can be a real issue when trailing in a big game. Indeed, this is precisely what cost them in the second half last weekend, as Barcelona were able to comfortably knock it around and had great opportunities to spring forward when Real Madrid looked to step up, thus creating five big chances and scoring four goals.

Of course, the addition of Kylian Mbappé – another attacker whose defensive application isn’t the highest – has not helped matters, so Ancelotti has a difficult problem to solve here.

Misfiring attack

A big part of the reason why Real Madrid’s defensive issues have been exacerbated this season is the fact that their attack has been quite disjoined so far, which is a stark contrast from last season. They were able to race into leads and comfortably control games in 2023/24, but their failure on the first count is what has led to this chain reaction.

Mbappé’s arrival in the summer necessitated a rejig from the 4-3-1-2 formation of last season, in which Bellingham operated as a very high attacking midfielder and often was the chief box presence since no recognised striker was used. He had to be pushed back to accommodate the Frenchman, whose preference to drift out to the left alongside Vinícius has also made Real Madrid’s attack even more lopsided than it was.

All of these were predictable issues, so the expectation was that Ancelotti would be able to find a brilliant formula just as he did after Bellingham’s arrival in 2023. So far, though, his 4-2-3-1 formation with Mbappé as the striker, Bellingham as a deeper number ten, Vinícius on the left and generally Rodrygo on the right hasn’t done the trick. While the incredible individual quality of these attackers has often gotten them over the line, their underlying chance creation hasn’t been much better than sides like Real Betis and Villarreal, meaning it is miles off what Barcelona are doing.

Whether it takes a new formation or just some more time for the players to get used to these new roles remains to be seen, but Ancelotti must quickly find a solution if Real Madrid are to keep up with their old rivals. If Los Blancos can get their attack fully firing again, they could well get away with some defensive issues just as they did last season.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Real Madrid game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Analysis: Real Madrid’s issues go beyond Clásico thrashing

By Neel Shelat

Of course, Barça have been great under Hansi Flick so far, but Real Madrid only have themselves to blame for not keeping up.

Unorganised defending

Of course, the addition of Kylian Mbappé – another attacker whose defensive application isn’t the highest – has not helped matters, so Ancelotti has a difficult problem to solve here.

Misfiring attack

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Real Madrid game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Chris Wood’s rich vein of form is firing Forest up the league

Only one striker in the Premier League has more goals than Chris Wood this season.

By Sam McGuire

The Nottingham Forest powerhouse netted twice against Leicester City on Friday night to take his haul for the campaign to seven. Not bad for a player who has racked up just 727 minutes in the English top-flight this term.

In fact, only two players in the English top-flight have more goals than the 32-year-old. Erling Haaland, of course, leads the way with 11 while Bryan Mbeumo kept up his surprising start to the season with a double against Ipswich Town on Saturday to take his tally to eight. The versatile attacker has scored twice from the spot for the Bees to boost his tally though.

When looking at out-and-out No. 9s in the Premier League, Haaland is the only one to surpass Chris Wood. The former Newcastle United attacker isn’t getting the plaudits going the way of Nicolas Jackson (six goals), Liam Delap (five goals) or Ollie Watkins (five goals), but he’s arguably had a better start to the season than the aforementioned trio.

His goals have fired Forest into seventh place in the English top-flight. They’re already on 16 points from their nine games and they’ve lost just once. For added context here, Nuno Espírito Santo’s men finished 17th last term on 32 points.

Forest are halfway to that haul already with 29 matches left to play.

They survived last season because of the goals scored by Wood. He netted 14 in the Premier League, the joint-most of his career. This season, they’re thriving as a result of his goals.

He’s been responsible for 64% of their goals this term.

Wood doesn’t have an eye on the Golden Boot. It is safe to say he’s just enjoying his football again. Speaking after the win over one of his former teams, Leicester, he said: “I just want to keep scoring as many as I can. He’s [Haaland] a very formidable man, and he’s probably going to score 30 goals this season. He’s a very formidable man to chase. He’s [Nuno Espiríto Santo] come in and put an emphasis on putting the ball in the box. He’s worked on that in the training pitch.”

Nuno also sung the praises of his in-form forward, saying Wood deserves all the praise he is receiving at the moment: “He’s done an amazing job. He’s very honest and he gives everything on the pitch for us. We are delighted and we want to continue. Chris deserves his plaudits.”

It is very much a team effort at the City Ground.

Forest have the second-best defensive record in the Premier League having conceded just seven goals in their nine outings. They aren’t free-scorers by any stretch of the imagination, finding the back of the net on just 11 occasions. But they’re setting up situations and scenarios to ensure Wood’s goals matter.

They’re also playing to his strengths.

When looking at his Player Traits Radar, Wood wins headers and scores goals.

He gives Forest an out ball. He’s there to relieve the pressure by winning close to 80% of his aerial duels. And then he’s a goalscorer. It is everything they want and need from the 6ft3 centre-forward.

Wood, who made the FotMob Team of the Week for Matchday nine with his 8.8 rating in the game against the Foxes, is full of confidence and that is a significant reason as to why he’s in such fine form.

Last season, the Forest No11 was averaging 2.39 shots per 90 and he had an Expected Goals average of 0.59. His finishing was fine, with an Expected Goals-on-target average of 0.53. He wasn’t adding value to his chances but he wasn’t necessarily devaluing his attempts. Well, not by much. He was finishing at the rate he was expected. Forest created chances for him and he converted.

This season, however, he’s stepped things up.

He’s attempting a similar number of efforts on a per 90 basis (2.35) but his Expected Goals average has taken a bit of a bit, coming in at 0.46. The big difference is his finishing. His Expected Goals on Target average is 0.7. He’s adding real value to his attempts and this is what is making him even more prolific than last season. You can see it when looking at his shot map (above). A lot of his efforts are hitting the corners. In fact, all but one of his goals this season have been in the corners of the goal.

Forest need to make sure they capitalise on this hot streak. As is, he’ll continue to be a threat, the underlying numbers are sustainable, but he might not continue to be the goal machine he currently is. At some point, the hot streak will come to an end. While he’s full of confidence, though, there’s no reason his goals couldn’t prolong Nottingham Forest’s unlikely European pursuit.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Premier League Team of the Week: Matchday Nine

We have new Premier League leaders in Manchester City while Crystal Palace finally recorded their first win of the season. Brentford and Wolves staged epic comebacks this weekend too.

By Sam McGuire

It was a busy one in the English top-flight and that goes some way to explaining why the FotMob Team of the Week is so varied. So, who made the cut and why?

Goalkeeper: Mark Travers

Travers stepped in to replace the injured Kepa Arrizabalaga as Bournemouth travelled to Aston Villa. After the performance he put in between the sticks, the on-loan Chelsea keeper might find it difficult to reclaim his starting position. Travers made seven saves and faced shots with an Expected Goals on Target total of 3.23 meaning he prevented 2.23 goals. The 25-year-old more than justified his 8.8 FotMob rating. He was pivotal in the Cherries claiming a 1-1 draw at Villa Park.

Right-Back: Nélson Semedo

Wolves fought back from 2-0 down to claim a point at Brighton this weekend. It brought their losing streak to an end. Semedo had a fairly solid game at right wing-back for Gary O’Neil’s side. The 30-year-old attempted six tackles, made 12 clearances and recovered the ball on three occasions. He won 10 of his 15 duels and this included winning seven of his 11 ground duels. He didn’t deserve to be on the losing side following this heroic defensive display. And two late goals ensured he wasn’t.

Centre-Back: Trevoh Chalobah

Crystal Palace finally picked up a win in the Premier League! The Eagles claimed a 1-0 victory over Spurs on Sunday and their entire backline put in an impressive showing. However, Chalobah is the only one to make it into the FotMob Team of the Week. The 25-year-old struggled in possession, completing just 59% of his passes, but he did boss things defensively. He won 100% of his tackles, 100% of his aerial duels and 83% of his ground duels. The on-loan Chelsea defender also made seven clearances as Oliver Glasner’s side kept a clean sheet.

Centre-Back: Rúben Dias

The Manchester City captain played his part in the reigning champions keeping a clean sheet in their win over Southampton. Dias completed 97% of his passes at the Etihad and recovered the ball on eight occasions. The former Benfica man had a 100% record in ground duels against the Saints but did struggle in the air, winning just one of four aerial battles. Still, it was a solid display for the ever-reliable centre-back.

Left-Back: Joško Gvardiol

This is becoming a regular occurrence, isn’t it? Gvardiol has made the left-back spot in the FotMob Team of the Week his own this term. The versatile defender created three chances for the champions and completed 93% of the 103 passes he attempted at the Etihad. The Croatia international won 100% of his tackles and 67% of his ground duels in a showing that earned him an 8.2 rating.

Midfield: Casemiro

The 32-year-old midfielder thought he’d salvaged a point for Manchester United when he netted an 81st-minute equaliser against West Ham United on Sunday afternoon. However, the Red Devils couldn’t hold on and lost out to a stoppage-time Jarrod Bowen penalty. That doesn’t take anything away from the midfielder’s performance though. Casemiro completed 82% of his passes, carved out two chances and made nine ball recoveries. He won 80% of his aerial duels and half of his ground duels in what was an all-round impressive display.

Midfield: Idrissa Gueye

Gueye claimed the highest player rating in the game between Everton and Fulham. The 35-year-old completed 89% of his passes at Goodison Park on Saturday evening. He completed 100% of his dribbles and won 80% of his duels in what was a commanding midfield performance for the Blues. The one-time PSG midfielder won 11 of his 13 duels, made two interceptions and recovered the ball seven times.

Attack: Bryan Mbeumo

Another two goals for Mbeumo this weekend. The Brentford forward has started the season in fine form and now has eight goals in a little over 800 Premier League minutes. Mbeumo was the match-winner as the Bees came from 2-0 down to beat Ipswich Town 4-3 in injury time. The 25-year-old didn’t have the best game generally but stepped up when it mattered most to give Thomas Frank’s side the win. That is ultimately all that matters.

Attack: Matheus Cunha

The versatile attacker claimed the highest FotMob rating in the clash between Brighton and Wolves. Cunha was awarded an 8.4 rating after scoring a stoppage-time equaliser for the visitors. The Wolves No. 10 had five shots in total and carved out four chances for O’Neil’s men. He also completed 60% of his dribbles and won seven of his 12 duels in what was a fairly dominant showing by the forward.

Attack: Pedro Neto

Few Chelsea players have managed to shine brighter than Cole Palmer this season but Neto managed it for the Blues in their 2-1 win over Newcastle United. The former Wolves winger assisted Nicolas Jackson for the opener and was a general nuisance for Enzo Maresca’s men. He had a total of five shots and created three chances at Stamford Bridge. He also completed 90% of his passes and 75% of his attempted dribbles.

Attack: Chris Wood

Wood found the back of the net for the third successive Premier League match as Nottingham Forest claimed a 3-1 win over Leicester City on Friday night. Wood now has seven Premier League goals this term after his double against the Foxes. The striker wasn’t heavily involved in general play, attempting just 14 passes, but did what he had to. He won aerial duels and scored two goals. It was a good day at the office for him.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Why it’s now or never for Dusan Vlahovic at Juventus

Dušan Vlahović’s start to the season has been decent but the club’s fans are crying out for more and that is why this is a huge campaign in the Serbian’s career.

By Kaustubh Pandey

A few weeks ago, there were big question marks around Vlahović’s suitability for the setup Thiago Motta has installed at Juventus. The Bianconeri boss, as evidence suggests from his use of Joshua Zirkzee, while at Bologna, prefers a link-up forward in his side instead of an out-and-out finisher and his system revolves around a player of that type.

Vlahović was hooked by Motta at halftime in the game against Napoli in September but responded with a brace in consecutive games against Genoa and then Leipzig in the Champions League, bringing about a change in form. He has five Serie A goals so far, with two coming from the spot. There remains a feeling that more can be got from the striker, who was previously scoring close to a goal a game at Fiorentina.

Now 24, Vlahović does have a tally that looks good on paper this season. But he has underperformed on his Expected Goals (xG) by some margin.

His xG in the Serie A stands at 0.82 per 90 minutes but he has scored 0.67 per 90 minutes, which would come as a disappointment to him, Motta and even some Juve fans. Having said that, he is taking a lot of shots per 90 minutes – more than he did last season. Because of that, it is only natural for his xG to be high.

*Vlahović shooting stats per 90, Serie A 2024/25*

He performed on par with his xG under Max Allegri last season but scored at a rate which was around 0.60 per 90 minutes. That isn’t a bad number at all but it is this season where he has to evolve as a player.

One of Motta’s main principles as anmanager is numerical superiority in midfield. This is best exemplified by how he likes his full-backs to invert as centre-backs and centre-backs often step out into midfield. At Bologna, Zirkzee dropped deep into midfield and was the glue for the rest of the attack.

Bologna benefitted from Zirkzee’s profile due to the presence of direct runners like Alexis Saelemaekers and Dan Ndoye and the Dutchman dropping in set them through constantly. Motta made sure that he adapted his system to suit the players at hand, leading to the Rossoblu qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in decades.

The principles of the Italian-Brazilian’s approach remained the same but he adapted to the profiles at hand too. At Juve, he is still experimenting with the players available and he is figuring out which role suits which player best.

Kenan Yıldız, for example, has been used in the number ten spot and on the left. Teun Koopmeiners was brought in as the attacking midfield option but Weston McKennie is also an option. Timothy Weah has often been used in a centre-forward role despite now being an out-and-out wide player, with Nico González an option for either side and Samuel Mbangula being the profile for the left-wing.

They haven’t really been prolific in attack, even if they have been very solid defensively. So much it suggests that things are still coming together and the harmony of the squad is taking a while to gel.

Juve are 12th in the table for Expected Goals created and that is a paltry number for a side that wants to challenge for the title. Defensive numbers are keeping them in the hunt but the bad attacking numbers will likely catch up with them up, as the season goes on.

Problems in Serie A and for Juventus go beyond just the performances on the pitch.

Vlahović is, by far, Juve’s highest wage earner and he earns over €400k a week, which is over €20m a season. The club’s second highest wage earner, centre-back Gleison Bremer, earns less than €10m a season and that shows how much faith Juve have placed in Vlahović, who has never crossed the 20 goal mark in his time at the Bianconeri.

For any Serie A club – let alone Juve, that is a huge burden, especially considering the Serbian’s return. That context makes the 2024/25 season a massive one for Vlahović, who knows that the club’s new management is much more ruthless than the previous one under Andrea Agnelli.

He will have an eye on how Federico Chiesa was let go in the summer too and the 24-year-old’s current deal runs out in the summer of 2026. This means that the summer of 2025 will be Juve’s last chance to earn a good fee from his sale and only a great season will make sure that he gets a new deal, which he is said to be very keen on doing right now.

To make sure that he has a chance of staying at the club, Vlahović has to go beyond the 20-goal mark – even if it means over-performing on his xG.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Serie A game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Serie A contenders Inter and Juve meet in the Derby d’Italia

Juventus and Inter are Italy’s most successful teams as far as Serie A titles are concerned, but they have not had a one-two finish in the league in the 2020s. Their early form suggests both will be in the mix at the top of the standings this term, so the season’s first Derby d’Italia could end up proving to be a critical juncture in the title race.

By Neel Shelat

Inter slightly off the pace

Simone Inzaghi’s Inter have been one of the best and most tactically intriguing teams in Europe in recent years. Their fluid possession-play and solid defending have enabled them to compete on all fronts, with top-class players in all positions across the squad starring as well.

Having enjoyed a quiet summer transfer window, the Nerazzurri naturally did not need to change their system for the new season. As one would expect, the defending Serie A champions’ results look pretty good as they have lost just once in all competitions so far, but their recent performances have been a bit concerning.

After losing to city rivals Milan, Inter have won their last five games. Apart from the convincing 4-0 win over Red Star Belgrade, though, each of those showings has been subpar in one way or another. Inzaghi’s side sat too deep and threw away an early lead against Udinese, getting bailed out by Lautaro Martínez’s goals on either side of half-time. They also had a five-goal game against Torino, which they won largely thanks to an early red card. This week, their attack hardly got going against Roma, and they needed a stoppage-time winner to beat Young Boys.

Juventus’ scoring struggles

Regardless of what sort of showing Inter put together, Juventus know that they have major issues of their own to contend with. While their defensive record in the league is mightily impressive as they have conceded just once in eight games, they have had some issues with scoring goals.

The Old Lady’s tally of 11 goals is only the ninth-highest in the division right now; certainly not befitting prospective title challengers. The bigger problem, though, is the fact that they have no reliable source of goals other than striker Dušan Vlahović, who is the only member of their squad with multiple league goals. However, he has never scored at San Siro.

Having put up with a very boring style of play under Massimiliano Allegri, Juve fans were quickly enamoured by Thiago Motta’s eye-catching possession-play, but they could quickly become annoyed again if their scoring problems persist.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Preview: Lopetegui and Ten Hag search for consistency as West Ham face Man United

West Ham United and Manchester United go head-to-head at the London Stadium on Sunday afternoon with both sides looking to get their season’s back on track.

By Matt Smith

t’s been a tricky opening few months for Julen Lopetegui and Erik ten Hag, who are both competing in the bottom half of the table.

The Hammers will be looking to bounce back after a disappointing defeat away to London rivals Tottenham. West Ham lost the game 4-1, with Mohammed Kudus sent off. The Ghanaian attacker will now be suspended as they host the Red Devils this weekend.

West Ham currently sit in 15^th place in the Premier League, just five points above the relegation zone. Lopetegui’s side are conceding 1.9 goals per game on average while creating just 11.7 expected goals (xG).

The summer transfer window looked a pretty one on paper for the Hammers, but their additions have yielded mixed results. Technical Director Tim Steidten and his team have revamped the midfield, but Tomáš Souček has dealt with the competition superbly.

Averaging more goals per 90 minutes than any other West Ham player, the towering midfielder has been keeping the likes of Carlos Soler and Edson Álvarez out of the starting XI.

Manchester United recently secured an impressive victory over Brentford last time out in the Premier League, but it’s been an inconsistent season so far.

The Red Devils have scored just seven goals, with only Ipswich, Southampton, and Crystal Palace managing fewer. Creating chances hasn’t been the issue as United have produced 12.4 expected goals, but they’re struggling to put the ball in the back of the net.

André Onana has been a strong candidate for United’s player of the season, which says a lot about their struggles on the pitch. The Cameroonian has prevented 3.33 goals so far, with only Leicester City’s Mads Hermansen managing more.

*Onana goalkeeping stats, Premier League 2024/25*

Joshua Zirkzee, Alejandro Garnacho, and Bruno Fernandes have had 7.9 expected goals between them, but the United trio have only found the back of the net three times. Their troubles in front of goal have cost them plenty of points so far and Ten Hag needs to find a way of making it click in the final third.

With West Ham having plenty of problems defensively, it could be an ideal opportunity for the Manchester outfit to find their feet in front of goal and gather some momentum ahead of the tricky winter period.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Spurs head to Selhurst Park for Eagles test

Things have been looking better for Tottenham Hotspur in recent weeks and they have a chance to win two games on the bounce, when they take on Crystal Palace on Sunday.

By Kaustubh Pandey

The season has been full of some inconsistencies for Spurs, who lost to Brighton despite a brilliant performance in the first half before succumbing to an unlikely comeback. They also lost 1-0 to Arsenal in a game where they had a lot of possession and this came before they trounced Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Ange Postecoglou‘s side did have to come back from a goal down against West Ham, last time out, but they blew the Hammers away in the second half and put in a trademark attacking show. The win over AZ in the Europa League during midweek was only a 1-0 triumph but it gave them more momentum, keeping them in second in the league phase table.

While their defensive lapses during defensive transitions are obvious, Spurs are arguably one of the most threatening attacking sides in England right now.

Only Manchester City have a higher xG in the Premier League this season, and that obviously takes in to account City playing a game more, earlier this weekend. They attack constantly during the game, dominating possession by keeping over 60 percent on average and it is an identity that they have carved out for themselves.

Despite the limitations in defence, they create impressively in attack and that is what struggling Palace will have to contend with on Sunday.

Oliver Glasner‘s side have proved to be a half-season-wonder, having failed to recreate their wonders from last season and that is why they find themselves 18th in the table.

They also lie at the opposite end of the attacking spectrum – so far. No team in the Premier League has scored less goals per game than the Eagles, who have seen their return fade since last season, when Jean-Philippe Mateta was on fire.

While last season saw them over perform on their Expected Goals metric by about +7, they have underperformed on it by a solid -4, showcasing that in a lot of cases, finishing the chances they get has also become a huge issue.

Spurs too are problematic when it comes to the finishing as they have missed the most number of big chances in the league, the amount of chances they create is massive, especially as compared to Glasner’s side.

Postecoglou’s team will most definitely dominate possession, as they always do, but at the same time, their tendency to give away chances at the other end will give Palace hope. Even West Ham were struggling going into their game against Tottenham but they led for a good portion of the game, and Palace will take inspiration from that.

Eberechi Eze‘s presence will be vital in that regard but Palace will also be encouraged by the fact that Son Heung-min is likely to miss the trip. Mikey Moore, who impressed against AZ, could feature in the Premier League this time around and it could be another game where Dejan Kulusevski runs the show for the Lilywhites.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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