Well, you could say that. On the 21st September 1949, Ireland beat England 2-0 at Goodison Park to become the first foreign team to do so away from home. And they had been a thorn in their side from Euro ‘88 on, when they beat them 1-0 in Stuttgart, and two years later, when they held them to a 1-1 draw in Cagliari during the 1990 World Cup. England didn’t beat Ireland at all between March 1985 and November 2020, although Ireland didn’t beat them either; they played out five draws during this time.
Form
Ireland are, by pretty common assent, not in a great shape at the moment, but they did at least beat Finland 1-0 on Thursday night to ensure that they won’t finish bottom of their Nations League group. England were much improved upon their shambolic home defeat against Greece in their return match in Athens, running out comfortable winners, despite doing without a huge number of withdrawals (9 at the last count). A win against Ireland will promote them back into the top tier of seeds and may make future qualifications a smoother passage, so England have an incentive to win.
Key players
It’s now been two years since Evan Ferguson made his Ireland debut. He missed five months with injury earlier this year, but the Brighton forward has now scored four in seventeen games and he bagged the crucial winning goal against Finland.
He wasn’t the only young player to impress in this match, either. The Liverpool goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher saved a penalty kick with the score at 0-0, another sign of a country emerging from recent football doldrums.
The England captain Harry Kane was critical of players who withdrew from this round of fixtures, only to find himself on the bench on Thursday night. The key question that Lee Carsley has to answer in his last game in charge of the team is whether he starts Ollie Watkins, who started against Ireland and scored the opening goal after just seven minutes, or the record goal scoring captain.
Kane vs. Watkins player comparison, 2024/25 league stats only
Team News
For Ireland, Shane Duff, of Norwich City and Seamus Coleman, of Everton both withdrew from injury last week alongside former Celtic forward Adam Idahm, while England are missing Aaron Ramsdale, Levi Colwill, John Stones, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luke Shaw, Declan Rice, Kobbie Mainoo, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Bukayo Saka, all injured.
Prediction
Ireland have improved since earlier this year, and their historical record against England demonstrates that they have the potential to put one over on their rivals. But England’s comfortable win in Athens on Thursday night indicated that their previous home defeat was a blip rather than a sign of anything longer-term. With Lee Carsley’s team needing a win to top the group, there is enough of an incentive there for the home team to be able to win this match, but Ireland always have an extra incentive to go for it against the Three Lions, so it might not be completely straightforward.
Prediction: England 2–0 Ireland
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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After been linked with the likes of Chelsea, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich at the end of last season, Rúben Amorim finally got his big move – and he couldn’t have asked for a harder gig.
Manchester United have gained one of the most exciting coaches on the continent, replacing a man who was similarly regarded after guiding Ajax to a Champions League semi-final and two Eredivisie titles.
Similarities don’t end there. Much like Erik ten Hag, Rúben Amorim took the helm at Sporting during a period of crisis. Fans were so unhappy; they broke into the training ground and physically assaulted the players back in 2018.
A first league title in 18 years back in 2020/21 and a second in 2023/24 helped smooth things over, but all of that is in the distance past now, and the Lisbon side will have to prepare for life without their talismanic manager.
Amorim couldn’t have wished for a better send-off. A 4-1 home win over soon-to-be rival Pep Guardiola to plunge Man City into crisis somewhat overshadowed the fireworks and tears before the game. And that was followed by a 4-2 comeback win at Braga, where Sporting scored three goals in the last 10 minutes of the game.
Former Sporting B manager João Pereira is the man who has been given the unenviable task of filling Amorim’s beautifully tailored boots and he has a lot of work to do if he wants to build upon what he’s inherited.
Since Ten Hag left, Ajax are yet to win another shield, a fate that Sporting and their new manager, Pereira, will hope to avoid now that Amorim is gone. Thankfully they have an ace in the hole, arguably the best striker in the world.
With 23 goals in his first 18 games across all competitions, no striker on the planet is playing like Viktor Gyökeres, not even the big Norwegian over in Manchester can compete.
His hattrick against Man City in the Champions League was his crowning moment. Yes, two of them were penalties, but his first goal showed the world exactly what he’s capable of, breaking away before slowly dinking it past Ederson.
Gyökeres shot map, Liga Portugal 2024/25
On the pitch, the transition should be seamless for Sporting. There isn’t much of a difference between Pereira and his old boss in terms of tactics, Pereira also likes to play with three central defenders and bombing wingbacks.
Like under Amorim, there will be a high defensive line and not an excessive amount of pressing, but enough to keep the opposition on their toes.
His greatest challenge will come off the pitch, however. Sporting’s players loved Amorim. During the summer transfer window, Gyökeres’ agent came out and said he would have left the club if the manager hadn’t remained.
Gyökeres and midfielder Morten Hjulmand were reportedly furious when they found out Amorim would be leaving. Results haven’t changed since the announcement, but if one result doesn’t go there way, all that positive feeling built up could fly out the window.
Pereira isn’t off to the best of starts. He’s yet to manage a game and he’s already in trouble with Portugal’s National Association of managers, with President Jose Pereira (no relation) saying, “We cannot recognise him as Sporting’s coach as he does not have the certification required to carry out his duties.”
If you’re a fan of omens, Amorim had a similar issue when he took over at Casa Pia. Although the club were deducted six points and he was suspended from all footballing activity for a year, he turned out pretty well for Sporting.
Their first game of the post-Amorim era will come against Amarante FC in the Taça de Portugal, a little warm up for the real test just four days later, a Champions League tie with Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal at the Estádio José Alvalade.
The Leões remain the only side in Europe’s top six leagues with a 100% record, comfortably sitting 11 points above second placed Porto at the top of the table and well on course to lift a second consecutive title for the first time since 1954.
The club’s incredible start to the season, as well as strong showings in the previous few, mean the vultures will soon come sniffing, and players like Gyökeres will likely leave for pastures new.
Man United have inevitably been linked but Amorim has promised not to sign any Sporting players in the January transfer window, and it may already be too late when the summer rolls around.
Gyökeres and Amorim aren’t the first to leave Sporting for bigger and (maybe) better things, and they certainly won’t be the last. Throughout its history, the club has nothing if not resourceful.
The next generation will take over. Players like 17-year-old Geovany Quenda, the latest to emerge from their famed academy, already have the world at their feet. In theory, Sporting are in safe hands as they wrestle with the transition that so many club’s before them have struggled with.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Losing your best player is rarely going to be looked upon as a positive, and that goes double when you lost them for free. Add in paying hundreds of millions of euros for them in the first place, them being the national face of the sport and arguably the top talent on the planet in their respective role and…well, Paris Saint-Germain didn’t have too much reason to be happy when Kylian Mbappé departed the Parc des Princes this past summer.
And yet, as has been shown at so many clubs before, out of the weeds can spring the hopeful flower which gives optimism for the future. In Paris this year, that is Bradley Barcola.
In truth, there’s not even any real need to delve deep into numbers of how and why to realise Barcola has taken an almighty leap forward this term: Ten starts, ten goals, two assists, most with his right foot, one with his left, one with his head.
Barcola shot map, Ligue 1 2024/25
The 22-year-old Frenchman is absolutely flying, the starting (and starring) left-winger in Luis Enrique’s system, both freed up and forced to step up by Mbappé’s departure. Look at PSG’s team this year and it lacks star quality compared to previous campaigns; the player with the most Ligue 1 minutes played is Willian Pacho, an Ecuadorian centre-back; the most assists come from 20-year-old Portuguese midfielder João Neves. Marquinhos, Ousmane Dembélé and Achraf Hakimi have long been big names, sure, but never the absolute elite in the way of some previous stars who have departed the club over the past couple of years.
In Barcola they might think they have the next one to join those ranks. The winger leads the way in the squad for goals of course, but it’s more that he’s an across-the-board top player in most attacking metrics: top four for xG, chances created, shots and dribbles per 90. Look around Ligue 1 and it’s even more impressive: the division’s top scorer, he has the highest xG, more than every similar attacker in the league for shots per 90, shots on target per 90, long ball completion rate and touches in the opposition box.
The top three rated players in Ligue 1 all play for PSG
If some of that is down to PSG’s domestic dominance, it’s also down to his own relentlessness: Barcola is an aggressive, determined figure who will not just look to beat a man to get a shot away, but will hound his opponent, shutting them down, winning back the ball to aid his team whenever possible. From that side of his game, it’s arguable that his game mentality approached by having a year or two trying desperately to be the additional pick to an Mbappé: while the star name must start, hopeful extras must bide their time and show more than just technical qualities to earn a place in the team. Barcola has won more duels than 80% of similar players in the league this term, and while he’s now more the team’s outlet and end product rather than doing the donkey work of others, there’s no doubt that has played a part in his growth.
Even with a wider lens beyond Ligue 1, Barcola ranks in the 91st percentile for goals, 74th for defensive actions and 73rd for chances created this season, among other wingers and attackers in Europe’s top leagues.
They are all some of the most highly rated, frequently spoken about and celebrated under-23 stars around Europe this season and previously; very few – if any – can do all of those things with such consistency as Barcola.
A big measuring stick for him this term is going to be his performances in the Champions League. There he’ll come up against the better defences in theory, but so far PSG have been largely poor: one win from four and outside even the playoffs right now at the halfway stage, despite it being basically designed so none of the big teams can fail quite that much. Surely they’ll make their way into the top 24 at some stage, but Barcola is without a goal there so far. Away to Bayern Munich is their next test, and it would be an ideal stage for him to give a big showing of his talent, but also to show whether he can be the go-to guy to rescue his team, not just help them be flat-track bullies domestically.
This PSG side doesn’t really have the look of one which will go deep this year in Europe, but that doesn’t mean they can’t produce sensational stars again. Barcola is primed to be exactly that this year.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The sight of Harvey Elliott walking out to join Liverpool’s under-21s squad for training after two months out with a fractured foot was an encouraging sight for supporters.
Joining the likes of James McConnell, Amara Nallo and Kieran Morrison for a spirited session, watched by coaches Barry Lewtas and Jay Spearing, the 21-year-old took a vital next step in his recovery.
Tracked carefully by the club’s fitness staff, Elliott was able to join full training on the ball, including a part in small-sided games on the outdoor pitch at the AXA Training Centre, with no obvious signs that he is still feeling the effects of a blow felt on England duty in September.
All being well, Elliott will rejoin his first-team colleagues for training in the buildup to Liverpool’s trip to Southampton on November 24, with a chance he could even make the squad at St Mary’s.
As they have throughout his time out, Arne Slot and his staff will take caution when it comes to the No. 19, but there is a sense that he is now at the end of his recovery, with that careful management paying off.
It comes after a difficult start to the season for Elliott beyond his injury, with the young midfielder only featuring once so far – that being off the bench in the 2-0 win over Brentford in August, and even then he was afforded just seven minutes of normal time.
That came despite no player clocking more minutes during Slot’s first pre-season in charge, with Elliott tied with Mohamed Salah, Jarell Quansah and Kostas Tsimikas having played almost five hours of football over four warmup games.
No player created more chances (nine) or registered more assists (two) in the Reds’ friendlies than Elliott, who also played the most passes into the final third (26).
Elliott player traits
Elliott had spoken of his excitement at transitioning to Slot’s “very elegant, Dutch style,” but when it came to the campaign proper it was clear that the new head coach had settled on a different midfield unit.
That left Elliott on the outside looking in, and with few changes required in the opening weeks of the season his game time was limited to say the least – and only made worse, of course, by fracturing his foot in training with England’s under-21s.
Over the course of his two-and-a-bit months out, however, things have changed for Liverpool and that should prove positive for the returning Elliott.
And with Liverpool in the midst of a relentless fixture list only increased by the expansion of the Champions League and their progress in the Carabao Cup, Slot has begun to rotate his side with more regularity.
That has often come in midfield, with Slot explaining why it has been one of the main areas of focus ahead of that 2-0 win over Villa:
“If you look at the players who have played most games, it’s mostly our centre-backs and they don’t really run the most if you compare that to full-backs or the midfielders or the wingers.
“So there are multiple reasons why our full-backs or our midfielders are sometimes rotated, but definitely it also has to do with the quality of the players and the difference in, at least in my opinion, the quality of these players.”
Just like at full-back, where a debate has emerged with Andy Robertson and Tsimikas both holding a claim to the first-choice spot, Slot demands a lot from his midfielders, particularly in terms of work rate.
Most prominently that has seen Curtis Jones shuffled into the mix after a hit-and-miss start to the season, with the England midfielder able to pick up any of the three roles in Liverpool’s engine room: the No. 6, the No. 8 or the No. 10.
Jones player traits
As it stands, Liverpool will play 12 games in 43 days before a possible break in fixtures at the start of January, averaging a fixture every 3.6 days, which could grow further if the Reds reach the quarter-finals and semi-finals of the Carabao Cup.
That rotation will only continue, then, and with Elliott back in the fold there is every chance he is considered a fifth part of that core group of midfielders.
Unlike Jones, the likelihood – based on his use in pre-season and his shorter stature – is that he will be earmarked for one particular role, that being the No. 10, but that is arguably the position with most uncertainty around it.
Szoboszlai has been a mainstay of Slot’s side so far, with only Salah, Mac Allister and Cody Gakpo making more appearances, but the Hungarian has invariably been the midfielder shuffled out amid doubts over his end product as a No. 10.
“He’s been important for us, especially until now in our work when we don’t have the ball. He’s been outstanding in his pressing game,” was Slot’s early verdict on Szoboszlai, when speaking in September.
“I think something that we have to work on with him is that he’s also even more involved in scoring goals and creating chances for us.”
So far this season, Szoboszlai has one goal and three assists in 16 appearances – a goal contribution every 275.3 minutes, or one every three games – with seven Liverpool players scoring more and both Salah and Jones assisting more.
Jones’ production in front of goal is double that of his fellow midfielder – averaging a goal or assist every 136.6 minutes – which highlights why the 23-year-old has seemingly broken into that first-choice trio ahead of Liverpool’s No. 8.
Elliott could follow the same trajectory, as despite being considerably shorter than Szoboszlai he still offers a similar running power and pressing ability while combining that with an improving end product.
In 53 games in all competitions last season, Elliott scored four goals and laid on 11 assists, averaging a goal contribution every 185.7 minutes, or almost every other game.
Elliott recent season summary
And in last season’s Premier League, no Liverpool player won possession in the final third more often (1.3 per 90).
Szoboszlai, by comparison, scored seven and assisted four at a rate of one every 245.8 minutes. Interestingly, he is also only sixth in terms of possession won in the final third for Liverpool in this season’s Premier League (0.6 per 90).
That is not to suggest that Elliott will return and overtake Szoboszlai in the pecking order, but it certainly demonstrates that he can be a similarly valuable asset within Slot’s midfield.
His time out has represented something of a slow build, yet to cement himself under new management, but if Liverpool pull off the plan for his comeback, Elliott could become one of their more important players in the second half of the season.
(Images from IMAGO)
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Fifth place in the Eredivisie, 61 goals conceded, and only 56 points won across 34 matches. Not the statistics which are usually associated with Ajax, but the 2023/24 campaign was their worst in recent memory.
The last time the Amsterdam side finished lower than fourth was during 1999/2000. At the end of October, Ajax occupied 17th place in the table, their worst start to a season since 1964/65.
They may have eventually scraped into the Europa League qualifiers, despite going through three coaches in the process, but for one of Europe’s most historic clubs, this standard was way below the expectations required.
Change was needed, that’s a certainty. In May 2024, Ajax appointed Francesco Farioli as their new head coach. The 35-year-old became the first Italian to manage the club, while being the club’s first foreign head coach since Morten Olsen in 1998.
A gamble? Yes. Fast forward six months and it appears this gamble could pay off rather handsomely.
Farioli represented a step in a new direction
The former Philosophy student approaches the game in a different way to most coaches. Still in his mid-30s, he has already gained plenty of experience, with Ajax his fourth managerial post.
The Italian guided Alanyaspor to a fifth place finish in the Turkish SüperLig two years ago, before embarking on a solitary campaign at the helm of OGC Nice. He secured a stunning 3-2 victory over PSG at the Parc des Princes, leading them to a fifth place finish in the process.
Combining his vision and philosophical insights, Farioli’s style of play is undoubtedly unique and one that has galvanised Ajax.
Problematic areas are being worked on
The Italian’s main priority was to fix a leaky defence that had conceded 61 times – the most of any Ajax team since 1958/59. Nice conceded just 29 times last season in Ligue 1, the lowest in the division, suggesting that Farioli would make a huge difference defensively.
In Josip Šutalo and Jorrel Hato, the club have two wonderful defenders who will likely move on to bigger things, but at the moment, they are shining for the club. Add in loan signing Daniele Rugani and the club have conceded just 11 goals in 11 matches, the joint-fourth best record in the top flight.
At the opposite end of the pitch, the club have scored 25 goals in the Eredivisie, again the third best total in the league. This is four more than at the same stage last season, indicating progress under Farioli.
Ajax rank in the top three for big chances created (41), touches in the opposition box (409), shots on target per match (6.3) and goals per match (2.3) in the Eredivisie this term, hence the reason why they have found things easier in the final third.
Of course, improving both defensive and attacking areas was key for improvement this season, yet Farioli was always going to be judged on the results rather than the statistics.
So far, Ajax are performing rather well.
Ajax are trending upwards
The club made it through three rounds of qualifying to secure their place in the group stages of the Europa League, while winning one of their opening two league games ahead of the first international break in September.
Since then, however, Farioli’s men have won ten of their 13 games, including three in the Europa League. This run has ignited their campaign, with the wins against Feyenoord and PSV Eindhoven just three days apart giving the indication that the Italian might just be the man to return former glories to Ajax.
In April, Feyenoord had won the De Klassieker 6-0 in what was their most famous win over their rivals in years. Six months later, Farioli masterminded an impressive 2-0 away victory courtesy of goals from Kenneth Taylor (22) and Hato (18).
Three days later against Peter Bosz’s PSV side, who won the title last term by seven points, scoring 111 goals in the process, Ajax came out 3-2 winners.
It was the first time they had defeated PSV since January 2022, dominating their opponents in the final third. Not only did they create three big chances to PSV’s one, but Ajax also managed 21 shots, nine more than Bosz’s men.
They may have sacrificed the lions share of possession, but Farioli’s attacking philosophy worked wonders at the Amsterdam Arena that evening.
Winning just one of those two matches would have been seen as a sign of progress under the former Nice boss, but two? His imprint on the team is clearly shining through after just a few months in charge.
There is plenty of football to be played, but if Farioli can build on these victories between now and Christmas, Ajax may well find themselves in a title race.
Appointing the 35-year-old was a big risk, especially following a shambolic 2023/24 campaign.
Now? The move may well go down as one of the shrewdest decisions made by a European club during the summer.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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For a time at Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White was seen as a player who was underperforming and had no chance of playing for England. But as he has matured, the midfielder’s reputation has changed. and he is now playing at his best.
Gibbs-White has never lacked promise at any point in his career. He went from shining for England in the Under-17s World Cup in India in 2017 and scoring in the final of the tournament to sealing a big-money move to Forest from Wolves in the summer of 2022.
A period of instability at Forest during the Steve Cooper era impacted everyone – from Gibbs-White to even established players like Remo Freuler and Joe Worrall. Not everyone who suffered stayed at the club, but Gibbs-White has now emerged as a key player and after a period of ups and downs, is becoming a vital performer under Nuno Espírito Santo.
Gibbs-White is thriving
Nuno certainly knows Gibbs-White well from his time at Wolves and even though he didn’t quite make excellent use of the Englishman, this familiarity has come in handy for the England international.
The improvement in the 24-year-old’s performances goes back to last season, when he contributed to 16 goals across all competitions, recording the the best individual season of his career from a statistical viewpoint.
Gibbs-White recent season summary
A majority of those contributions came under Nuno, who handed him a leadership role in the squad, and made him feel like a very valued member of the starting XI.
Gibbs-White has just one goal in the 2024/25 campaign so far and while that obviously isn’t a big number by any means, there is now a feeling that the midfielder is truly becoming a irreplaceable part of the club. His influence extends beyond what he does on the pitch and he commands authority.
How is it happening?
Last season, Gibbs-White would operate across the pitch even while playing in the attacking midfield role. Nuno’s arrival made him optimise his actions and presence on the pitch and he is now found far more often on the left, popping up in the half-space quite a lot.
The Portuguese manager’s style of play has been very transition based since his time at Wolves and it gives attacking players a lot of room and space on the break. Gibbs-White has taken advantage of that perfectly.
The Tricky Trees are third-bottom in the Premier League for average possession and that says everything about their approach, which relies on staying deep and compact, then breaking by using the skillset of nifty players to attack space.
They are also eleventh for touches inside the opposition box, per 90 minutes, showing that they rely heavily on efficiency rather than high volume shooting or dribbling. They just have to make the most of the ball they get.
In that setup, it is sometimes more important to keep possession flowing forward quickly than actually create. That is the role Gibbs-White has taken on this season.
Gibbs-White passing stats per 90, Premier League 2024/25
He is thriving on keeping play ticking over and that has just brought his numbers to a lower level than last season. In the 2023/24 campaign, he was much more involved in the final third and made things happen in the box.
Gibbs-White passing stats per 90, Premier League 2023/24
He was assisting way more often last season and was allowed to get into positions that made him create chances for his teammates – be it through crosses or threaded balls beyond defensive lines.
He isn’t the fanciest of dribblers out there, but Gibbs-White combines a workman-like approach with the ability to pick the right passes and keep play moving forwards. That can be used in different setups and it is also vital to note that Forest do have wide players who boast pace, reducing the load on the ex-Wolves man to be that crafty 1v1 player.
He beats a midfield’s press with his passing accuracy and has this natural ability to turn past them with ease, making Forest a constant threat on the break.
The former Under-17s World Cup winner has also come leaps and bounds defensively this season, adding another tool to his arsenal that will definitely come in handy for the future.
A blessing for England?
In many ways, Gibbs-White belongs to a very modern generation of English midfielders who are multi-faceted and technically blessed. Unlike a profile such as Kalvin Phillips, he offers so much more across the pitch and can also operate in multiple setups.
He, along with Angel Gomes, played under Lee Carsley in the Under-17s setup and that has played a role in their recent call-ups. But both of them possess the ability which definitely raises the technical ceiling of any future England XI and helps them break down those defences that play deep.
The Forest man still has a long way to go and as Thomas Tuchel prepares to take over the Three Lions in the coming weeks, Gibbs-White will have to impress over the course of these next two international games to make a space for himself in the German’s side.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The first of this season’s CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinals is sure to attract a fair bit of interest, as it marks Mauricio Pochettino’s competitive debut in charge of the United States Men’s National Team. Away in Jamaica, they should expect a decent test.
Former Manchester United assistant coach Steve McClaren has been in charge of Jamaica since the summer. He has overseen four matches so far, including two wins, away in Honduras and Nicaragua, and two goalless draws on home soil against Cuba and the Hondurans.
The Reggae Boyz were the clear favourites in each of those matches, so while those results are not bad, they are not particularly inspiring either. Indeed, Jamaica’s attacking play under McClaren has been subpar so far given the quality in his squad, so he will need to fix that if his side are to advance.
The good news is that he will get some reinforcements in terms of personnel. Most notably, star attacker Leon Bailey has accepted his call-up and should return to national team action for the first time in about a year, having gone on a self-imposed exile after a fallout with the previous head coach and federation. Newcastle United midfielder Isaac Hayden will likely make his debut after completing the process to switch nationalities, but the suspended Michail Antonio will be a big miss.
USMNT favourites with a strong head-to-head record
The USMNT have quite an impressive record against Jamaica, having lost on just three occasions in 33 meetings. They are unbeaten in competitive action since 2015, most recently scoring a dramatic turnaround victory in the last Nations League semi-final.
Mauricio Pochettino’s tenure did not get off the best of starts as his side suffered a 2-0 defeat in Mexico in the last international window, so he will aim to register his first away win in charge of the USMNT in the first leg of this quarterfinal. He was without a good few key players last month, so this tie should give us a first glimpse into what his first-choice line-up will actually look like.
One aspect that will likely remain up in the air is the striker position. The USMNT have consistently rotated between Folarin Balogun, Josh Sargeant and Haji Wright of late, but all three of them are out injured in this window. So, PSV striker Ricardo Pepi will likely lead the line, while one of the three Mexico-based forwards – namely Chivas’ Cade Cowell, Monterrey’s Brandon Vázquez and Club América’s Alejandro Zendejas – could well join Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah if Pochettino uses a front four.
Prediction
The USMNT’s superior squad quality and head-to-head record means they have to be the clear favourites for this tie. Both sides have relatively new coaches and are bringing some new players into the mix, so their performances may well turn out to be a little disjointed – particularly in the first leg.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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History heavily favoured the Three Lions in results and in storylines; even when they didn’t win, they still did in effect, such as with David Beckham’s injury time equaliser to send England to the World Cup. Even in club-level meetings the most memorable occasions tend to see the Premier League outfits beat the Super League ones: Liverpool thrashing Panathinaikos in the ‘85 European Cup semi-final; Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United all knocking out Olympiacos at the same stage in the space of a decade; Liverpool and their infamous late comeback to beat the same Greek side in the group stage, en route to winning the Champions League. It was all so heavily one sided – until it wasn’t, a month ago, with Greece triumphing at Wembley with a poignant celebration of their efforts and the memory of George Baldock. The Nations League might not have the same standing as some of those other games, but for Greece it was a night to rival most in their history; for England, lessons must be learned.
Form
These Nations League games are the last under Lee Carsley before Thomas Tuchel takes charge for England, so while form isn’t of much importance, impressing for places is – and they want promotion back to League A of course. That means there’s no choice but to win this game to try and top the table, with second spot only offering a playoff. If Greece even draw, they are up.
Who’s left in the England squad?
England suffered eight injury withdrawals from the initial squad, the most notable of which were Trent Alexander-Arnold – man of the match three times in four games for Carsley – along with Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice. There will be first caps on offer across the fortnight, but whether any come in this game will depend largely on the type of midfield the interim boss wants. Greece will likely look very similar to during their Wembley win, with all 11 starters from October included in this squad – though the likes of Kostas Tsimikas and Fotis Ioannidis may hope to come in.
Possible England XI built with the FotMob lineup builder – try it yourself at FotMob.com!
Key players
For the hosts, Vangelis Pavlidis scored both goals at Wembley and is an obvious standout for inspection – at Benfica he’s actually more facilitator than scorer, with 2.1 chances created per 90 this term being better than any other similar forward in the Primeira.
As for England, injuries make a lineup tough to predict but Noni Madueke and Anthony Gordon look good shouts to start on the flanks and need to produce big games to improve their chances of nudging ahead of Saka, Phil Foden and the like. The Chelsea man’s non-penalty xG of 0.33/90 puts him ahead of 82% of similar players this term and 3.67 shots/90 is ahead of 93%. That’s a nice balance to Gordon’s crossing and creativity from the left.
Prediction
England to be somewhat more solid and disciplined than last time these sides met, enough to earn a win in a low-scoring game. 2-1 to the Three Lions.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Moise Kean always had an admirer in Raffaele Palladino. “I will not deny that I already wanted Kean when I was at Monza,” revealed the Fiorentina manager, explaining why he pushed for the signing of the forward from Juventus in the summer when nobody else wanted him. Only a few months later, Kean is repaying Palladino’s faith.
While Kean failed to score a single goal in 19 league games for Juve last season, the 24-year-old is currently Serie A’s second-top scorer having netted eight goals in 11 matches. When Fiorentina signed the former-Everton and Paris Saint-Germain striker in the summer, hardly anyone noticed. Now, though, all eyes are on him.
Not much was expected of La Viola coming into the 2024/25 campaign. They lost key players Nico González and Nikola Milenković over the summer while manager Vincenzo Italiano departed to take over at Bologna. At the time, this looked to be a step up, but Fiorentina are currently seven points ahead of Italiano’s side. They might even be title contenders.
Fiorentina started the season slowly under Palladino. Indeed, La Viola went winless in their first four matches as the tactics of their new manager took some time to bed in. Over the last two months, though, Palladino’s team have found their groove with their only defeat in all competitions since mid-September coming against APOEL Nicosia.
At first, Fiorentina played in a back three. Quickly, though, Palladino switched to a four-man defence and achieved better balance across the rest of the team. The introduction of former AC Milan midfielder Yacine Adli was another turning point with the Frenchman thriving as the player who pulls the strings from deep. Game by game, pieces fell into place.
Palladino, however, never needed any time to figure out Kean’s role. The Italian international scored in only his second game for his new club and continued to find the back of the net even as Fiorentina struggled for form. As La Viola’s new frontman, Kean has reached a level not seen from him for a number of years.
“I saw him as a great striker who has it all,” said Palladino, speaking about his long-standing admiration of Kean whose career had meandered before ending up at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. “He just needs to continue like this and stay in good shape physically, the rest is just the fruits of his daily work in training and the help from his team.”
Kean shooting stats per 90, Serie A 2024/25
As a modern centre forward, Kean ticks almost every box. He is physically strong and quick across the ground. He is a good dribbler. Technically, the striker also has the ability to play for a team that wants to have possession. This is surely one of the things that attracted Palladino to Kean, and is one of the things Max Allegri failed to utilise during his time at Juventus.
At Juve, Kean was never seen as the main man. He was behind Dušan Vlahović in the pecking order and had to make do with filling in wherever he could find minutes. Allegri played him out wide and as a supporting striker. Even when Kean was deployed as the focal point of the Old Lady’s attack, Allegri’s conservative style never got the best out of him (and others).
Whether it’s a Lucas Beltrán through ball or a David de Gea punt up the pitch into open space, everything at Fiorentina is geared towards Kean. The 24-year-old has scored all sorts of goals this season with Kean’s hat trick against Verona on Sunday a display of everything he is giving La Viola. It was the complete forward’s performance.
No Serie A player has a higher individual Expected Goals (xG) than Kean (8.5) so far this term. This means that while the Fiorentina striker is in the form of his life right now, he is actually underperforming according to the opportunities he had had this season. If anything, Kean could improve further as Serie A’s hottest centre forward. That’s a terrifying thought.
Kean shot map, Serie A 2024/25
This season’s Scudetto race promises to be a classic. Two points is all that currently divides Napoli at the top of the table and Juventus in sixth. Many believe the title will ultimately come down to Inter and Napoli, but nobody can be discounted this early in the campaign. Fiorentina are right up there, just one point off first place.
For all the legends that have played for La Viola over the decades, none of them delivered the Scudetto. Gabriel Batistuta, Roberto Baggio, Rui Costa and Francesco Toldo all missed out on title glory for a club that hasn’t been Italian champions since 1969. That championship drought might not end this season, but Kean’s goals have made Fiorentina a team worth watching.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The Premier League has taken on an extremely unusual look over the last few weeks or so. It already seems as though the actual title race itself could be a two-horse race, with nine points between leaders Liverpool and third-placed Chelsea.
But from there down, things start to get weird. Just three points separate Chelsea from Brentford, who are in 11th, and just a single point separates them from Manchester United, who are in 13th. For all the talk of ‘crisis’ at Old Trafford, United are only four points off a Champions League place.
So why is this coming about? Is it a trend that might last, or are we just in the middle of a statistical blip that will inevitably fade? Although it’s difficult to demonstrate it empirically, there are possible reasons behind why this could be happening which seem extremely obvious.
Firstly, injuries are taking their toll and big clubs have been missing big players. Manchester City’s recent slump has come about at exactly the same time as their current Ballon d’Or holding midfielder has been out injured. Likewise, Martin Ødegaard has been missing for Arsenal. Both are exceptional and influential players, and neither team has looked quite the same without them.
It may also be the case that the middle order of Premier League clubs is catching up with the bigger clubs, that the social strata of the division is being eroded. When Bournemouth beat Arsenal and Manchester City in successive home games, they won on merit. The days of the only way to beat these teams being to defend for your lives for 90 minutes and try to steal something on the break or otherwise hope that something just lands for you might not have passed, but it certainly feels as though they’re in recession at the moment.
Bournemouth’s last five games
And many of the division’s other clubs seem to be making much better transfer decisions, which may well be down to the proliferation of data available to them. Brighton and Brentford have both demonstrated what’s possible if you use that data wisely. Clubs are also making more imaginative choices for their next managers or head coaches. The days of there being a layer of mediocre English managers below the biggest clubs have also gone.
The upshot of all of this is that, while it would be silly to suggest that they are all very much of a muchness, they have certainly all been taking points off each other so far. With eleven games of the Premier League season, we find ourselves in the extremely unusual position of having nine clubs who’ve won five of them, while a further two have won four. Only the top two have a win rate above 45.45%.
Of course, there are ups and downs within this grouping. Nottingham Forest are the most obvious improvers. For all that their performance at home against Newcastle United last Sunday afternoon felt like a bit of a bump back down to earth, they are deservedly in fifth place. At the other end of the spectrum, Spurs can’t even seem to be consistent within one game at the moment, let alone a run of them and have fallen back to tenth.
And there are names who you might have expected to have seen in this group who are missing from it. West Ham United finished last season in 9th place and won the Europa Conference League the year before, but they’re down in 14th this time around. Crystal Palace always (seem to) finish in 12th place. They’re currently occupying one of the three relegation places.
And since this last week has brought Remembrance Sunday, it’s also worth bringing up that this season has got nothing on the 1914/15 First Division season, when just three points ended up separating the top seven and six points separating the top eleven come the end of the season, with Everton winning the title by a point after Oldham Athletic lost their last two games of the season to Burnley and, of all people, Liverpool.
Of course, the great leveller that year may have been the number of players who left their clubs to fight in the First World War. In 2024 it’s the over-stuffing of the calendar that is leading to the loss of such players as Rodri and Martin Ødegaard for extended periods of time.
Player voices have grown louder against overpacking the schedules to breaking point, but the governing bodies have signed those lucrative broadcasting contracts so we’re getting an eight-game Champions League Swiss-model group stage and a vastly expanded Club World Cup whether we like it or not. That it also happens to have made Nottingham Forest fans happy is just an accidental by-product, and one that we should probably expect to be ironed out again soon.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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