Page 44 – The Pulse of Football

Nov

2024

MLS Cup Playoffs: The LA Clubs will fancy their chances in a wide-open draw

The elimination of Columbus Crew and Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami from Major League Soccer’s post-season playoffs has left the field wide open. The two Los Angeles clubs — LA Galaxy and LAFC — are best positioned to take advantage of this and there’s the prospect of a big LA derby in the Western Conference final.

By James Nalton

It was widely expected that the Eastern Conference representative in the MLS Cup final would be one of the two MLS Cup favourites Columbus Crew or Inter Miami, but both suffered shock exits in the first round.

Defending MLS Cup champions Columbus were the first to fall, losing the first game of their round one best-of-three series against New York Red Bulls at home before going on to lose the second on penalties in New Jersey.

The much-lauded team who, under coach Wilfried Nancy, have been one of the most entertaining sides in MLS history, were out without even taking the Red Bulls to game three.

This left the Eastern Conference door wide open for Inter Miami whose best-of-three series with wildcard qualifier Atlanta United was poised at 1-1.

Tata Martino’s Inter Miami side had produced the best regular season in MLS history on their way to winning the Supporters’ Shield — the trophy awarded to the overall league leaders at the end of the season when the Eastern and Western conferences are combined. Their tally of 74 points broke the previous record of 73 set by New England Revolution in 2021.

With Messi back from injury, Miami were expected to put the icing on the cake with an MLS Cup triumph but lost the game three decider against Atlanta United in what was the biggest upset in MLS playoff history.

While this provides an opportunity for the other teams in the Eastern Conference to make an unlikely run to the MLS Cup final, it is even more of a boost for the two Los Angeles clubs on the opposite side of the bracket who will now have their eye on winning it.

LA Galaxy and LAFC finished level on points in the Western Conference regular season standings, with LAFC topping the table on goal difference by just one goal.

Now Supporters’ Shield winners Inter Miami and runners-up Columbus Crew are out of the playoffs LAFC, who finished third in the overall standings, are the highest seed remaining in the post-season and will enjoy home advantage for as long as they remain in the playoffs. Similarly, should the Galaxy make it all the way to the MLS Cup final, they will host.

LAFC face Seattle Sounders in the conference semifinal. It won’t be an easy task as the Sounders went into the playoffs with the fewest goals conceded in the regular season and a solid defence can take a team far in the playoffs.

If there is to be an upset in the West, this is the most obvious place for it, but the way these playoffs have gone so far, anything can happen anywhere.

It is for this reason LA Galaxy will need to be careful as they face Minnesota United in their game. On paper, it looks like the easiest of the semifinals but Minnesota finished the season well under Welsh head coach Eric Ramsay.

If both Los Angeles clubs win, it will set up an LA derby — known as El Tráfico — in the Western Conference final at the home of LAFC to decide which team progresses to and hosts the MLS Cup final.

In Denis Bouanga, LAFC boast one of the best players not to be featured among the 2024 MVP finalists. The Gabon international forward leads MLS for expected goals in 2024 with 22.7.

Meanwhile, his teammate Mateusz Bogusz is one of the more underrated star players in the league. He was as important as Bouanga to his side’s Western Conference table-topping performance in 2024 and stands out among attacking players for his total touches and chances created, as shown by his Player Traits chart.

Galaxy midfielder Riqui Puig is the most gifted player in the league not named Lionel Messi, as shown by his position just behind Messi in FotMob’s average ratings.

Puig dictates games from a creative midfield role. He tops the league for the most accurate passes per game and for touches as the only player with over 3,000. He’s also 5th in the league for successful dribbles.

Gabriel Pec was another of the Galaxy’s standout players in the regular season and was named Newcomer of the Year ahead of Luis Suárez, reaching double figures for both goals (16) and assists (12).

Pec and fellow new signing Joseph Painstil have been a big reason for the Galaxy’s turnaround in 2024, and will play a big role should they make it all the way to the MLS Cup final.

Who the Western Conference winner face in the MLS Cup final is anyone’s guess. In the Eastern Conference semifinals, there’s a New York derby between Red Bulls and City, while Atlanta’s reward for knocking out Inter Miami is a meeting with Orlando City.

The LA clubs will fancy their chances against all of these teams but first, they have to get past their conference semifinal opponents, and then potentially each other in what would be one of the biggest El Tráfico matches in MLS history.

*El Tráfico H2H record, LA Galaxy represented by the blue*

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the MLS Playoffs live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Cunha, Strand Larsen and why Wolves must make this moment count

One win, almost a third of the season gone. It doesn’t make good reading for Wolverhampton Wanderers fans so far, but that doesn’t mean negativity and pessimism should be spiralling around the club – there are plenty of reasons to think they are on the cusp of kick-starting their season and have the quality and firepower to do so.

By Karl Matchett

Having the players who are talented enough to win matches is one thing, of course, while actually getting the job done consistently is another. Wolves have had injuries to contend with this term and a shocking fixture list at the beginning of the campaign, but other teams have and will have to deal with the same thing – Gary O’Neil knows results must change quickly.

The good thing is that they can do now. Having already faced Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Man City by mid-October, the last three games have seen them take five points, including that long-overdue win against Southampton before the international break. And next up? Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich, Leicester. They won’t necessarily win them all, but all are winnable games. In the xG table Wolves are above two of them and just below another two; as a team they rank 14th in the Premier League for shots on target per game, 16th for possession, 14th for possession won in the final third. They might want a league placing ultimately higher than those, but the point is if they are able to produce those kinds of numbers against the league’s leading lights, they should be able to perform even better, on average, in their next half a dozen encounters.

*Wolves place 17th in the xG table AKA Justice Table – which is explained here*

A significant part of the reason why they can be confident of improvement is the form of two attackers: Matheus Cunha of course, but also Jørgen Strand Larsen. “I’m a hard-working striker, I think that I always compete for every ball like it is the last ball,” he said in a recent interview. Having won 25 aerial duels – more than 88% of comparable attackers – committed more fouls than 85% of others and ranking above 70% of forwards for defensive actions across major European leagues, those traits are frequently in evidence. Even outside the statistics, it’s evident in him chasing down the channels, harassing opponents to pass across defence instead of into midfield and in occupying at times more than one defender to leave space for on-running support teammates.

*Strand Larsen defensive stats, Premier League 2024/25*

Yet the other half of his quote in the same interview noted “but the most important thing is to score goals”. He’s not quite flying in that regard yet, but four goals and an assist means an involvement every 180 minutes – which isn’t terrible for a team one off the bottom, in a new league after a terribly difficult run of games. And, of course, when he’s the second goal-provider, after teammate Cunha.

The Brazilian is on a goal or assist every 127 minutes this term, after five and two respectively so far. But he’s also 80th percentile or better in the league for shots, shots on target, successful crosses and fouls won, on a per 90 basis. On a league totals basis, he’s 90th percentile or thereabouts for goals, shots, expected assists, chances created, crosses, successful dribbles, touches in the box, duels won, shots blocked and possession won in the final third. That is a simply sensational all-round application of Cunha’s talents, up there with the league’s best in attack this season, even as Wolves are down there with the worst overall as a team. Getting those two playing in tandem as often as possible is job No. 1 for O’Neil.

*Cunha shooting stats, Premier League 2024/25*

Add in a powerful, hard-working and resilient midfield trio when all are fit and there’s a definite spine to build around, and yet more reason to fuel optimism. But there’s a whole other area to the Wolves team which needs quick, and significant, improvement.

Yes, injuries have hit. But the defence has been far too leaky even accounting for that. Their 27 goals conceded is comfortably the Premier League’s worst so far this season; keep this rate up and they are on course to see 93 put past them across the year. Only two teams in the history of the league have conceded more, one being last-year’s record setters Sheffield United. The other were Swindon, when it was still 42 matches player per season.

The xG tally against them shows they’ve not been quite that bad – or have been punished more than expected, whichever way you see it – putting them at around 20 against so far, but allowing seven more than they should doesn’t reflect well on either Sam Johnstone (-1.4 goals prevented) or, particularly, José Sá (-2.9). With just one clean sheet kept all season, it’s clear where the biggest improvements need to come. If they do, the talent at the other end will surely mean the old gold finally starts to climb the table.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

MLS Cup Playoffs: This weekend’s Hudson River Derby is a battle for New York supremacy

New York is a soccer city. Other cities like Atlanta, Portland and Seattle might be more obvious hotbeds for soccer in the USA, but there is passion for The Beautiful Game in The Big Apple. That will shine through when New York City FC host the New York Red Bulls in this weekend’s MLS Eastern Conference semi-final.

By Graham Ruthven

Of course, the focus of this year’s MLS playoffs was meant to be on South Florida. Lionel Messi and Inter Miami had dominated the agenda until Atlanta United produced arguably the biggest shock in league history, knocking out the Herons over three games. Messi and co. will watch the rest of the playoffs on TV.

The Columbus Crew were a popular second pick to retain the MLS Cup they won last year. However, they too suffered a shock early defeat to the New York Red Bulls who made it beyond the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. NYC FC also upset the odds to topple FC Cincinnati.

Saturday’s meeting between the two New York rivals will be the 30th in MLS history, but never before has there been so much riding on a Hudson River Derby. The stakes of a do-or-die elimination game will lift the stakes to a whole new level. A place in the Eastern Conference final is on the line. So too is New York soccer dominance.

New York City FC have won MLS Cup once before. The Bronx outfit lifted the trophy in 2021, beating the Portland Timbers in a thrilling final at Providence Park. NYC FC have been a regular fixture in the latter stages of the playoffs over a number of years, most recently reaching the conference semi-finals in 2022.

For the New York Red Bulls, it’s been a different story in the playoffs. While RBNY boast the longest active playoff streak in American sports, their 15 years in the post-season have yielded nothing. Indeed, the Harrison-based club have never won a MLS Cup despite being a founding member of the league.

Both New York franchises have struggled to carve out an identity for themselves. NYC FC have had star players and lifted silverware, but they are still splitting home matches between Citi Field and Yankee Stadium – two baseball stadiums. The City Football Group-owned club’s new 25-000-capacity stadium won’t be completed until 2027.

RBNY have a modern soccer-specific stadium, but have struggled to fill it. The fanbase feels marginalised by an ownership group that considers MLS an afterthought. “MLS is developing, but it’s developing far too slowly and is still far away from the standard we would imagine for a country like the USA,” said Oliver Mintzlaff, Red Bull CEO, in a recent interview.

Mintzlaff might have a point, but many would argue the New York Red Bulls are part of the problem. Ambition has been in short supply at Red Bull Arena in recent times. The days of Thierry Henry and Tim Cahill have faded in the memory. Marquee signings are more likely to end up in Los Angeles or Miami than Harrison.

Under Sandro Schwarz, though, RBNY have made genuine progress. The former Hertha Berlin coach has moved his team away from the pure Red Bull identity and has turned RBNY into a more proactive outfit that can now control matches through their use of possession. The quick transition threat is still there, but the Red Bulls are a more rounded outfit under Schwarz.

Emil Forsberg and Lewis Morgan have the ability to decide a match in the attacking third while the likes of John Tolkin, Dylan Nealis and Noah Elie have continued to develop over the course of the campaign. After sweeping the Columbus Crew in Round One, RBNY could feasibly make the conference finals for the first time since 2008.

NYC FC also have talent, although most believed this season’s playoffs would come a year too early for Nick Cushing’s team. By seeing off FC Cincinnati in Round One, though, the Bronx outfit proved they have the talent to beat the strongest opponents with NYC FC’s defensive solidity getting them through three matches with three clean sheets.

To make it past RBNY, attacking difference-makers like Santi Rodríguez, Alonso Martínez and Hannes Wolf will have to step up for New York City FC who have yet to score a goal in the playoffs. The hope for NYC FC is that they have an even higher level to reach in Saturday’s Hudson River Derby.

With Messi and Inter Miami no longer consuming all the oxygen around this year’s MLS playoffs, Saturday’s meeting between New York’s two teams will be a defining moment in the 2024 season. No matter the outcome, NYC FC and RBNY will produce a spectacle unlike anything else seen in this rivalry before.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the MLS Cup Playoffs on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

New Manager Bounce: Five coaches making a fresh start this weekend

All eyes will be firmly placed on Portman Road on Sunday as Rúben Amorim kicks off his Manchester United career against newly promoted Ipswich Town. However, Amorim is far from the only new manager who’ll be looking to get off to a winning start this weekend.

By Zach Lowy

Christian Ilzer, Hoffenheim

Like Amorim, Christian Ilzer arrived at Sturm Graz in 2020, and like the Portuguese manager, he successfully ended a lengthy title drought. After finishing as runner-ups in 2021/22 and 2022/23, Sturm Graz finally toppled Red Bull Salzburg’s dynasty and claimed their first league title in 13 years, in addition to the Austrian Cup. Like Sporting, they have delivered an impressive start to their title defence, sitting three points clear atop the Austrian Bundesliga table, but if they are to claim back-to-back league titles, they’ll have to do so without Ilzer, who has moved to the German Bundesliga to replace Pellegrino Matarazzo at Hoffenheim.

“Christian Ilzer’s 4-3-1-2 focuses on central dominance, quick transitions, and high pressing, with the midfielders dictating play, fullbacks providing width and strikers exploiting defensive gaps, and the Bundesliga should suit his counter-pressing style,” said Elijah Kaneki, a video scout for Malmö. Ilzer has gone from fighting for silverware in Austria to battling relegation in Germany at TSG Hoffenheim, who have reportedly paid €2.5 million to get him out of his contract. Hoffenheim sit 15th in the table, one point above the relegation playoff, and they will be looking to pull off a major upset against an RB Leipzig side that has won each of its last three matches.

Patrick Vieira, Genoa

Despite accumulating four points in his last two matches in Serie A, Alberto Gilardino was sacked as Genoa manager and replaced by Patrick Vieira. The Frenchman has reunited with Mario Balotelli for the third time, having previously worked together as teammates at Inter and Manchester City. Vieira’s appointment as Nice manager was the main catalyst in Balotelli’s decision to leave the Allianz Riviera, with Vieira admitting in 2020: “Mario’s mindset was difficult for a collective sport. The philosophy I wanted to put in place, the togetherness and work ethic I wanted to build, it was difficult for me to work with a player like Mario. It was really difficult for both of us to work together, so we decided to go different ways.”

Although it could be an awkward reunion for Balotelli, who arrived on October 28, they will be looking to put their differences aside and turn a new leaf at Genoa. Having finished 11th in their return to Serie A last season, the Grifone find themselves in grave danger of going down, sitting one point above the relegation zone, and they are in desperate need of a win against Cagliari on Sunday.

Marco Giampaolo, Lecce

Whilst Amorim and Ilzer will be looking to replicate their club legend status at their new team, Marco Giampaolo will be making his long-awaited return to coaching. He has not managed since a 3-0 home defeat to Monza on October 2, 2022, which left Sampdoria stranded in last place, and he’s got a tall task ahead of him as he looks to lead Lecce to their first away win since April 21. In fact, Lecce’s sole two away wins since the start of the 2023/24 season have come against two teams that are currently in Serie B: Salernitana and Sassuolo.

Giampaolo has reunited with Croatian forward Ante Rebić, having previously coached him at Milan, and he’ll be counting on him to lead the line in a team whose pitiful attacking threat has landed them in the relegation zone. Lecce have scored five goals – the worst attack in Serie A by a margin of four goals – and conceded 21. Can they turn around their woeful away form with a win at Venezia on Monday?

Jorge Sampaoli, Rennes

With a net worth of $27.1 billion, Rennes president François Pinault is the wealthiest individual owner in French football, and whilst he’s been able to make a statement in the transfer market – Rennes spent €78.3m last summer, second only to PSG, Lyon, and Marseille – this hasn’t quite translated to success on the pitch. Despite having the seventh-highest market value in Ligue 1 (€203.25m), Rennes currently sit 13th in the table – one point away from the relegation playoff place – with twice as many losses (6) as wins (3). It’s why Pinault had no other choice but to axe club legend Julien Stéphan after a 4-0 thrashing to Auxerre, with Rennes losing 2-0 to Toulouse in the following week, and hire Argentine manager Jorge Sampaoli.

“Stéphan started the season trying to play a specific system which worked well, but then Benjamin Bourigeaud left and the wheels came off, as Stephan’s team selection posed more questions than answers,” said John Gray, a Rennes season ticket holder since 2007. “Towards the end, the body language of the players was pretty awful, and Stéphan lost all of the credit he had for the Europa League run, Champions League qualification and winning a first major trophy in 48 years. Fans are praying that the Sampaoli effect will get a team playing in their positions with more commitment to the cause, but with a fair chunk of his first-team squad only getting back in the past day or so from the international break, getting a point in their first match, which comes away at Lille, will be easier said than done.”

Claudio Ranieri, Roma

It has been a half-century since Claudio Ranieri began his playing career at hometown club Roma. It has been 15 years since Ranieri took charge of Roma for the first time, five years since he returned for a second spell, and six months since he announced his retirement after guiding Cagliari to safety last season. And yet, the 73-year-old is back in the game, becoming Roma’s fourth permanent manager of 2024 after José Mourinho, Daniele De Rossi and Ivan Jurić. The Giallorossi have lost four of their last five league matches and find themselves mired in 12th place, and they’ll be counting on the Tinkerman as they look to navigate a cumbersome post-international break schedule that will feature trips to Napoli and Tottenham and a home match vs. Atalanta.

Roma find themselves in peril of missing out on European football for the first time in 13 years after a cold streak that has seen them win just two of their last nine and concede 3+ goals to in three of their last five matches. However, if there’s one man who knows a thing about conjuring up a miracle out of thin air, it’s Ranieri.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow all the action from Europe’s top leagues on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Premier League Preview, Matchday 12

The final international break of the calendar year dragged a little, didn’t it? Not to worry though, the Premier League returns this weekend with a bumper edition. Yes, there’s even Monday Night Football™.

By Sam McGuire

There are a number of interesting match-ups to look out for across Matchday 12 and it’d be easy to overlook a few things. We’ve got you covered though.

Manchester City take on their bogey team

Manchester City have lost four matches on the bounce. Yes, the great Man City side, managed by the great (and newly committed, contract-wise) Pep Guardiola, are winless since they eked out a 1-0 victory over Southampton at the end of October.

Since then, the reigning champions have lost to Bournemouth and Brighton in the Premier League, Spurs in the Carabao Cup and Sporting in the Champions League. The aggregate scoreline across these games is 10-4.

They trail leaders Liverpool by five points but with playing first this weekend, they have the opportunity to cut that down to just two points with a win at the Etihad on Saturday evening.

However, it just so happens they find themselves up against perhaps their only bogey side of the Guardiola era in Tottenham Hotspur. City have won just five of their previous 12 games against this weekend’s opponents, losing on six occasions. Spurs have lost just two of their last four at the Etihad and have scored eight goals in these games.

It is going to be a slog for City to get back to winning ways but bouncing back from these situations is what is needed if you are to become champions.

Can Liverpool handle the pressure?

Liverpool have won 15 of their 17 matches across all competitions this season.

Arsenal and Nottingham Forest are the only two sides to have taken points off of the league leaders. Mikel Arteta’s team played out a 2-2 draw with the Reds at the Emirates while Nottingham Forest picked up a surprise win at Anfield in September.

The 2019/20 Premier League champions weren’t title favourites ahead of the campaign but their ruthlessness this term has given them a five point advantage at the summit. It isn’t necessarily theirs to lose at this point, you cannot win the title in November, but expectations are being altered now and pressure is mounting.

They will be under pressure to win this weekend when they travel to the South Coast to take on Southampton. Russell Martin’s men are currently bottom of the Premier League table with four points from their opening 11 matches. They have the worst attack in the English top-flight having scored just seven goals while only Brentford (22), Ipswich Town (22) and Wolves (27) have conceded more goals than the Saints (21).

Southampton did pick up a victory in their last home outing, beating Everton 1-0, before losing to Wolves before the international break to completely halt their momentum.

This should be a formality for Liverpool. It should be all three points. If they are to challenge for this title, it has to be. How will they handle this sort of pressure, especially after the international break and a tricky away game on the agenda?

The Amorim era kicks off

Kieran McKenna was linked with the Manchester United job in the summer. He penned a new deal with Ipswich Town ahead of their return to the Premier League and the Red Devils kept faith with Erik Ten Hag.

However, the Dutch tactician didn’t last long into the new season and has been replaced by Rúben Amorim. The former Sporting boss takes his new team to Portman Road this weekend to take on McKenna’s side.

Things could’ve been oh so different had McKenna returned to Old Trafford in the summer. Now, though, he’s got a part to play in what is set to be a new era for United.

After all, all eyes will be on this game.

How will Amorim set his new team up? Will there immediately be a new manager bounce? There is an expectation that the Red Devils will fly out of the traps, buoyed by their new manager. If Ipswich, currently just a point outside of the drop zone, can get anything from this match, Amorim will immediately be scrutinised while McKenna’s stock will further rise.

*Amorim’s win percentages with Braga B, Braga, and Sporting*

A hammer blow

Newcastle United are having the season West Ham United were supposed to be having.

The Magpies are eighth in the Premier League table but are just one point behind third-placed Chelsea. They’ve beaten high-flyers Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in the final two matches before the international break and they’ve picked up a point against Manchester City this season. Eddie Howe has shown he can turn things around, time and time again, and their faith in the former Bournemouth boss is yielding positive results now.

By comparison, West Ham United find themselves in 14th position, just five points above the drop. The Hammers had a busy summer, replacing David Moyes with Julen Lopetegui and signing a host of names. It was supposed to usher in a new era. More attack-minded players should’ve resulted in better football. This hasn’t been the case though. They’re finding goals hard to come by with 30% of their haul for the campaign arriving in their win over Ipswich Town. Without that game, the Hammers have scored nine in 10. The pressure is mounting on Lopetegui and there’s even talk he could be sacked sooner rather than later.

A performance, and a positive result, is needed at St James’ Park or the former Wolves boss could be out of a job before the festive period kicks off.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Liverpool can’t ignore Ben Doak’s relentless talent – he can be their next loan success story

While in years gone by a loan move may have decreased a player’s chances of making it at Liverpool, looking over Arne Slot’s current squad shows that this trend is starting to change – and Ben Doak could be the next to benefit.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

Harvey Elliott, Conor Bradley, Jarell Quansah, Vítězslav Jaroš and Tyler Morton have all taken in at least one loan spell before returning as part of Liverpool’s first-team squad.

In fact, the rise of Bradley and Quansah – from League One sides Bolton and Bristol Rovers respectively – has been held up as a marker of how the Reds look to use the temporary market to fast-track their players to top-flight football.

“The Liverpool boys, sometimes they miss out on the Championship and bang, they’re straight there in the Premier League,” Wigan manager Shaun Maloney, who counts both Luke Chambers and Calvin Ramsay among his squad this season, explained in October.

While before Liverpool’s loan strategy may have been more a case of readying their youngsters for a permanent move to the Football League or putting fringe players in the shop window, that has become more refined over the years.

Now, many of those heading out can harbour genuine hopes of returning as part of the club’s long-term plans, with one such player being Ben Doak.

The 19-year-old winger joined Championship side Middlesbrough on a season-long loan at the end of August, having played four times for Slot during pre-season only to then report back for training with Liverpool’s under-21s squad.

Liverpool had, in fact, set a price tag for the young Scot in the event permanent interest arose, with all avenues explored as a number of clubs tracked the situation.

But the challenge for Doak was clear: prove himself in the Championship and a place in Slot’s squad could be his prize.

“It’s a balance we need to find, do we want to play them on a regular basis or once in a while and stay with us?” the Liverpool head coach explained last month.

While injury to summer signing Federico Chiesa led Slot to joke that “maybe we should bring Ben Doak back,” the reality is that, with the Italian on board along with a world-leading right winger in Mo Salah, opportunities would have been scarce.

Fortunately, the opposite is true at Middlesbrough, where Doak has not only already established himself as a first-choice starter but is now one of Michael Carrick‘s top performers.

He has now started eight of the last nine games in the Championship – sitting out of the other due to concerns over workload injury – with three assists in his last two outings.

Plymouth winger Ibrahim Cissoko (3.1) is the only player to average more successful dribbles per 90 minutes in this season’s Championship than Doak (three), who is behind only two players in Europe when it comes to carries into the penalty area.

*Doak possession stats per 90, EFL Championship 2024/25*

Real Madrid’s Vinícius Jr. (44) and Paris Saint-Germain’s Bradley Barcola (40) are the only players to bring the ball into the 18-yard box more often than Doak has (39).

The Liverpool loanee is level with Sporting CP’s Viktor Gyökeres (39) and above both Salah (36) and Kylian Mbappé (36), while he is in the top one percent of players for progressive carries (8.57), progressive passes received (16.34) and touches in the opponent’s penalty area (7.91) per 90.

Put simply, Doak has been an unstoppable presence on the right flank, and with his end product now improving – his three assists in the last two games were also his first of the season – there is every reason for full-backs to fear him.

*Doak passing stats per 90, EFL Championship 2024/25*

“He’s been exactly as described – a game-changer. With the exception of one game against Watford, he’s had left-backs in the Championship absolutely terrified,” TeesideLive’s Middlesbrough reporter Craig Johns tells FotMob.

“His direct dribbling style is a real throwback and it’s perfect for a Boro side who, until Doak’s introduction into the starting lineup, we’re finding sides sitting back behind the ball against them and they’d struggle to break that down.

“With Doak now a regular, they’re breaking sides down far easier, with the youngster undoubtedly key to that.”

His influence is not only felt at Middlesbrough, with Doak now a regular starter for Steve Clarke‘s Scotland senior side – the same trajectory playing out at international level.

The teenager tore apart Manchester City left-back Joško Gvardiol in two meetings with Croatia across the October and November international breaks, while he assisted the opener as Scotland beat Poland 2-1 to avoid relegation in the UEFA Nations League.

*Doak player ratings during November international break*

“He’s a threat, he’s very direct, he gets at defenders, and having been a full-back myself I know when you’ve got a winger like that who gets at you it makes it difficult,” Clarke enthused after the victory over Poland.

“He brings us something a little bit different.”

While before that ability may have made Doak more of a wild card, that he is translating that to performances week in, week out can only be encouraging for his parent club.

That is not to say that it is challenge complete for the £600,000 signing from Celtic, with a long campaign still ahead for him at Riverside, but with regular contact from those within Liverpool’s loan department these can only be positive signs.

It comes with doubts over the long-term future of Slot’s right flank, not only with Salah’s contract running out at the end of the season but with question marks when it comes to Chiesa’s fitness.

All involved will be hoping that Salah extends his stay beyond the end of his current deal, having proved he is still the world’s best in his position this season, but with the Egyptian turning 33 next summer there will be a need to manage his minutes more.

Having a player like Doak – who has not only showed his dazzling skill so far at Middlesbrough but also his work rate and composure in possession – in the squad should aid that situation.

It would be a just reward for a youngster who is already capable of thriving at the top level and could serve as another example of Liverpool’s impressive loan system in effect.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with everything Liverpool, make sure you click follow on the team profile in the FotMob app. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW12

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

Alexander Isak (8.5m) was in many people’s plans and draft teams for GW1, but after a disappointing start to the season, many managers saw fit to get rid of the Swede who had been on fire towards the tail end of the 2023/24 campaign.

Isak has now scored 3 goals in his last three games against three good defences – Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, and Arsenal – racking up an impressive 2.42 Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) across those matches. He also fared well during the international break and with Newcastle having a few favourable fixtures coming up (bar Liverpool in GW14), I would definitely consider bringing Isak ahead of the weekend, especially if you are thinking about playing your wildcard. I think I can safely say that Isak is starting to look like his old self.

Another striker that falls under the same bracket is Brighton’s João Pedro (5.4m). Pedro returned from injury in GW11, and he did so in impressive fashion, scoring and assisting in the Seagulls’ impressive victory over champions Manchester City. And he did all this in just 25 minutes, what an impact! I have been a big fan of the Brazilian forward for a long time, and I will be looking to bring him in to my team as fast as possible. Pedro has brought in four returns (three goals, one assist) in just 306 minutes this season, averaging a return every 76th minutes! He is also Brightons designated spot kick taker, which brings even more value in FPL terms.

Brighton also have a nice looking run of fixtures coming up. And although it’s hard to observe too much from only 25 minutes against one of, if not, the best team in the league João Pedro has previously been playing lining up a little a bit deeper than Danny Welbeck, Brighton’s no. 1 performer this season, but I believe the fact that you are saving 0.6 million makes Pedro the better alternative, should he stay fit.

Long shot

This week’s long shot is a player definitely worth considering due to injuries elsewhere in the Arsenal squad. And at 5.5m you’re getting an Arsenal defender who is owned by just 1.4% FPL managers. I am of course talking about Jurrien Timber.

With Ben White expected to be out from somewhere between 6-8 weeks, Timber should feature in Mikel Arteta’s plans for the upcoming games. Timber is versatile, he can play at full back on both flanks, and with eight starts already under his belt, even before White’ injury, he is bound to get minutes.

Arsenal have one of the best defences in the league and even though they have underperformed recently, I believe they will turn it around. Timber is a good differential if you can’t afford the likes of William Saliba and Gabriel or simply if you just want to save money.

Upcoming games to follow

Saturday’s early kickoff is the first game I want to highlight: Leicester City vs. Chelsea. There are many interesting players to follow in that game; Cole Palmer (10.9m) is, in my opinion, an option for captain with a favourable fixture in GW12. Nicolas Jackson (7.9m) will also be an interesting player to look out for in that fixture.

Ipswich Town vs. Manchester United is my next pick. Two United players I tipped in my last article before the international break; Bruno Fernandes (8.4m), who delivered with 17 FPL points, and Diogo Dalot (5.2), who was unfortunate to be subbed after 60 minutes, are again players I will be looking out for. I believe that both provide some serious value for at least the next two weeks.

My final pick is Southampton vs. Liverpool, bottom vs. top. I’m banking on this game being very, very one sided and Mohamed Salah (12.9m) who was tipped in my GW10 column is one who I am really looking forward to watching play, I definitely expect him to return, in FPL terms. Defensive assets such as Ibrahima Konaté (5.4m) and Virgil van Dijk (6.3m) are other players I expect to do well and I would not be surprised to see Liverpool win by two or three goals.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Nov

2024

Five top talents in the Premier League and their stats this season

For some time, the Premier League has been the most financially dominant league in European football. That used to mean clubs were more likely to buy prime age or even post-prime players, in the hopes of immediate impact, living with the consequences of them aging out of their peak and still having them on the wage bill.

By Mohamed Mohamed

In recent years, things have changed. Clubs are more aware of when players tend to be at their best, so more transfer funds have been directed towards future prospects. In addition, the modernisation of academies through the Elite Player Performance Plan has helped PL clubs produce tons of young talent over the years.

Those factors and others have led to where we’re at currently, with there being almost a glut of young players in the Premier League. Look up and down the table, and you can find so many high-end players aged 23 and under in the division. This piece will highlight some of them, with a slight twist. Five of them will be discussed, with each at a club that occupies a specific section in the table, in ascending order.

Mateus Fernandes – Southampton (20th)

The acquisition of Mateus Fernandes over the summer is an example of both the purchasing power that Premier League clubs have across the division, and how it’s being utilised. After a successful 2023-24 season on loan from parent club Portuguese club Sporting, there was hope for him being a regular contributor this campaign. Instead, newly promoted Southampton acquired him for a fee somewhere around £15m. At 20 years old, he also fits the transfer policy of recruiting young players who could help generate a sizable profit, even in the event they do find themselves relegated at the end of the season.

It’s not hard to see why Southampton signed Fernandes. He fits the mold of the all-action central midfielder who can provide two-way impact. His ground coverage is impressive despite not having an imposing physique, he’s able to win duels across the pitch whether in a high press or defending in a low block. His skill-set has been key in Russell Martin’s attempts at playing the type of controlled possession you associate with the big clubs. You’ll even see him try to sprinkle in forward movements, including late runs towards the box.

His recent showing against Everton was a showcase of what he can do at this stage of his career. He was constantly escaping into space on the ball and making multiple progressive carries into Everton’s final third, even trying to attempt quarterback-style passes into the box after evading his marker. The defensive work wasn’t flawless, in particular not effectively utilising his cover shadow, but the effort was there when trying to help regain possession.

If the performances continue at the level they’ve been at this season, it won’t be long before Mateus Fernandes becomes a household name.

Alejandro Garnacho – Manchester United (13th)

For all the issues that’ve been talked about with Manchester United recently, they’ve ended up with a strong young core of talent aged 23 and under, both those who’ve come through the academy and via dealings in the transfer market. The likes of Kobbie Mainoo, Leny Yoro, Rasmus Højlund, and others provide hope that with the right manager at the helm, the club could eventually get back to being a title contender in the not too distant future.

Included in that is Alejandro Garnacho, who’s been the most consistent source of shots in the United squad since he started getting regular minutes. This is also true when coming on as a substitute, where his athleticism and directness through off-ball movement can be immensely valuable against tired defenders. At his best, his unique combination of skills can act as a focal point for United’s attack, as evidenced by what he did against Brentford when he had a goal and eight shots. With Højlund dropping deep to attract Brentford’s centre-backs, it led to Garnacho attacking the space in behind or receiving switches of play to set up 1v1s with his marker.

*Garnacho shot map vs. Brentford, Oct 2024*

There’s been some discussion about who’ll occupy the wingback spots in new coach Rúben Amorim’s tactical setup, with Garnacho’s name being included. While there’s some sense behind the idea, in theory, it would be taking him further away from goal and making him less of a goal threat. While he’s not a flawless forward, in part due to his decision making in the final third, he gets himself into positions for shots in a manner that perhaps no one else on the squad can generate.

Warts and all, it’s becoming clear that Alejandro Garnacho will be a regular starter for Manchester United for years to come.

Jhon Durán – Aston Villa (9th)

In recent years, there’ve been an increasing number of young tall strikers who have the requisite athleticism needed to play in today’s game. Within that mold, there is variety in how these jumbo sized forwards operate. For example, Samu Omorodion and Joshua Zirkzee don’t operate in the same manner. In the case of Jhon Durán, he’s much closer to the former than the latter as today’s version of a traditional striker.

To put it simply, Durán has proven himself to be quite a handful for central defenders. He’s comfortable initiating contact and jostling to win aerial duels, which provides another method for Aston Villa to progress play. The sudden movements he has at attacking the channels makes him a threat to get in behind defensive lines. His height and frame also allow him to be a box threat for different types of shots.

As of now, we do not have a robust sample size from him since Ollie Watkins is at the prime of his career and is the usual starter. He will likely not continue to score at the rate he has in the Premier League (four goals from 14 shots), but it might be possible that the way he takes his changes allows him to be an above average finisher going forward. With Villa’s busy schedule, there should be enough minutes to go around that we’ll get a better idea on just how high Durán’s ceiling really is.

Carlos Baleba – Brighton (6th)

Brighton are renowned for their ability to find gems in the transfer market, especially midfielders. The acquisition and sales of Moisés Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister are examples of how the club helps develop players before they move onto the ‘Big 6’ within the Premier League (Chelsea and Liverpool respectively). At the rate Carlos Baleba has improved, he’s likely to be next in line for a big move and a big payday for the club.

Baleba is constantly involved in the early phases of buildup, receiving the ball from the centre-backs and sometimes even forming a back three in possession. While a capable passer, it’d be fair to say that he’s not an expansive one. What makes him an exciting prospect is that he’s able to carry past his marker time and time again, including on the turn. If he’s got the ball and has a bit of space ahead, he’ll pick up steam like a locomotive and cover a lot of ground.

*Baleba possession stats, Premier League 2024/25*

The out of possession work can be marvellous to watch. He has the type of burst and explosiveness needed to scale up towards elite level football, helping nullify transition opportunities. This can also lead to continually having consistent possession in the final third through counterpressing. He’s just above the 92^nd percentile in possessions won in the final 3^rd per 90 minutes.

Unsurprisingly, that combination of off-the-ball tenacity and burgeoning on-ball talent has led to feint whispers of the Premier League’s elite hoping to acquire him. That’s a story for another day, especially given that Brighton are once again trying to qualify for Europe, which means any transfer offer would likely have to start in the nine figure range. Midfielders of Baleba’s quality aren’t in abundance, and if he irons out his game, he could become a great midfielder during his peak.

Ryan Gravenberch – Liverpool (1st)

If there was one flaw which Liverpool had going into the season, most would have agreed it was the lack of a recognised No.6. They tried to rectify this with their attempts to sign Martín Zubimendi, but he decided to stay put with Real Sociedad. Arne Slot had to look internally for a potential answer, and so far, Ryan Gravenberch has answered the call in emphatic fashion.

Gravenberch’s ability to drive play with his ball carrying and short-range passing had in years past made him more of a threat in the middle and final third. However, under Slot, Gravenberch has played an important role in the early parts of Liverpool’s more methodical buildup play, trying to bait the opposition forward so the likes of Luis Díaz and Mohamed Salah can run into the vacated space. Part of that responsibility has been being proficient in resisting pressure, which he’s done expertly as he’s spun away from several opponents in deeper areas. This helps explain why he’s among the best at dribbling with the ball, with his dribble success rate at 73.3%.

*Gravenberch possession stats, Premier League 2024/25*

The space Gravenberch can cover defensively is also impressive, helped by his height at around 6’3”, which allows him to play out of possession that others don’t. In addition, he’s got good instincts for being able to read his opponent’s eyes and position himself to block passes or make interceptions. It’s not a coincidence that he’s currently just over the 84th percentile in interceptions.

Liverpool came into this season as likely the third best team in the league, residing in their own tier below Arsenal and Manchester City. Through 11 games, that’s not been the case as Liverpool hold a 5 point lead in the table and are currently the favourites for the Premier League title. A significant reason why has been the adaptability of Ryan Gravenberch.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Nov

2024

Ayoze Perez: The top scoring Spaniard in LaLiga this season

Spain’s UEFA Nations League match against Switzerland would have been particularly meaningful for Ayoze Pérez had he been fit enough to play. This was La Roja’s first competitive match on the Canary Islands since 1996 and Pérez – a Tenerife native – was set for an emotional homecoming only for a minor muscle injury to prevent him featuring.

By Graham Ruthven

That there was such focus on Ayoze Pérez ahead of the game highlighted the level at which the 31-year-old is operating right now. He has become a difference-maker for Spain, scoring one and assisting another in last week’s away win over Denmark. Written off in England after spells at Newcastle United and Leicester City, Pérez is now a starting figure for the European champions.

He’s also spearheading Villarreal’s resurgence under Marcelino. Last season, The Yellow Submarine finished a lowly eighth, going through three different managers in the process. Marcelino was hired for a second spell at El Madrigal just over a year ago and needed some time to make his mark. Now, though, Villarreal are heading in the right direction again.

Pérez is a key member of Marcelino’s new-look team. He has scored seven goals in just nine games (five of them starts), making him the top scoring Spaniard in LaLiga. Only Robert Lewandowski and Vinícius Júnior have scored more than Pérez who is only getting better as he progresses deeper into his 30s.

Signed from Real Betis in the summer transfer window, Pérez has given Villarreal a different dimension in the attacking third. His mobility has been utilised by a team that is less than concerned with possession than it is with making the most of space in the opposition half – Villarreal rank only 13th for average possession share in LaLiga this season.

Only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Real Betis have a higher Expected Goals (xG) than The Yellow Submarine who have found the back of the net 23 times in just 12 games. Even beyond Pérez, Villarreal are thriving in so many different areas. They have lost just one of their last six league games, and that was away to Real Madrid.

Álex Baena looks to have taken the next step in his development, contributing five assists as Villarreal’s creator-in-chief from the left side of the midfield. Nicolas Pépé has been integrated into the forward line following his summer switch from Trabzonspor while Dani Parejo continues to pull the strings in the centre of the pitch.

In Pérez, though, Villarreal have a player who embodies their overall improvement. He has been a one-man attacking hub for Marcelino’s side this season, ranking in the top 27% for shots over the course of the campaign so far as well as the top 15% for chances created. In dribbles, progressive passes and crosses, Pérez ranks similarly highly.

*Pérez’s attacking stats per 90, LaLiga 2024/25*

“He wanted to come and that was the first thing,” said Marcelino about Pérez’s decision to join Villarreal and the impact he’s made. “He’s happy and he finds the goal. And when that happens you find confidence, security… but he also scores a lot of goals in training. It’s a transfer of daily work. He’s intelligent, precise, he dominates the game. In the penalty area he’s intuitive… he’s helping us a lot.”

A fourth league win in a row against Osasuna this weekend would further strengthen Villarreal’s case for a top four finish. The Yellow Submarine’s only two defeats this season have come against Barcelona and Real Madrid and so there’s little reason to believe their Champions League qualification challenge will falter. Villarreal’s underlying numbers are strong.

The injury picked up by Pérez on international duty could see him miss a game or two for Villarreal. Marcelino might have to absorb the loss of his most in-form attacker before a difficult run of fixtures that will include games against Girona, Athletic Club and Real Betis before LaLiga’s winter break at the end of December. Having Pérez fit for this period would be a boost.

Off the field, Pérez has grown too. He has taken on a leadership role at Villarreal this season, publicly criticising LaLiga’s decision to play matches in the wake of the devastating floods in eastern Spain that led to the deaths of more than 200 people. “The decision was not in our hands; we had to play, and so we did,” he said. “But we all agreed that we shouldn’t have.”

Few could have imagined the standing Pérez would assume back in his homeland when he left Leicester City nearly two years ago, but the 31-year-old’s unexpected success for club and country is proof of what good coaching and a healthy environment can draw out of a player. The top-scoring Spaniard in LaLiga has plenty more to offer.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Analysis: The messy mismanagement that has led Lyon to provisional relegation

Lyon have not enjoyed the best of times in recent years, but their situation has gotten a lot worse in the last week. As their debts continue to mount to the tune of hundreds of millions, their men’s team has been handed a provisional relegation to Ligue 2 by the Direction Nationale du Controle du Gestion (DNCG), French football’s financial watchdog.

By Neel Shelat

There hardly ever is a dull day in the world of French football. Even though there has been no on-pitch Ligue 1 action for over a week due to the last international break of the year, followers and stakeholders alike have been kept very busy by the news of Lyon’s provisional relegation to Ligue 2. Their worsening financial situation, caused by John Textor-led Eagle Football Group’s extremely questionable management, is to blame.

Financial difficulties compounded by poor performances

It is worth noting that Lyon’s financial position was not the best even before Textor took over. Long-time President Jean-Michel Aulas oversaw the most successful period in the club’s history as they won seven consecutive Ligue 1 titles in the 2000s, but the last part of his 36-year tenure did not go so well.

Although OL never won another league title after 2008, they remained consistent competitors towards the top of the standings. In fact, Les Gones never finished outside the top five for over two decades between 1998 and 2020, which is when their recent troubles began.

From a financial standpoint, Lyon’s constant European participation as well as their top-class academy ensured their situation remained pretty stable. The big-money transfer fees they could bring in for their best talents more than offset their transfer spend, while the above-average competition revenue they received helped take care of their wage bills.

However, Lyon perhaps made a mistake in letting their player payroll nearly double between 2017 and 2020. So, right after they dropped out of the European spots at the end of the 2019/20 season, they found their annual balance sheets in red indicating net losses.

Nevertheless, this was far from a crisis. Given their stature and revenue potential, Lyon could easily have ridden through this period with some sensible decisions and measured spending. So, the real problem was that their next owner did the exact opposite of that.

Multi-club madness

When Textor completed his majority takeover of Lyon in December 2022, the club had missed out on European football for a couple of seasons. Quite simply, that meant he could not reasonably afford to go gung-ho in the transfer market as he seemingly intended to do. The DNCG were quite wary of that, as they decided to apply extra scrutiny in monitoring Lyon’s business in Textor’s first full season at the club.

On the whole, the financial health of French football clubs has been pretty poor in recent years, as Bordeaux’s demise earlier this season illustrated. So, the DNCG has been taking extra measures to monitor clubs, asking them to provide proof of funds besides just annual reports. This has been the major point of contention between them and Textor, as he has tried to use the other clubs under the Eagle Football Group umbrella – namely Brazilian title contenders Botafogo, Belgian second-tier side RWD Molenbeek and Crystal Palace – to assure the DNCG of Lyon’s financial stability. The DNCG have not been too impressed by that, as they have decided to focus on Lyon in isolation.

So, back in the summer of 2023, the DNCG went as far as blocking some transfers Lyon attempted. The most notable one among these involved Ghanaian talent Ernest Nuamah, who had been lighting up the Danish Superliga with FC Nordsjælland and attracting interest from all over Europe. After the DNCG prevented Lyon from striking a deal, Textor circumvented this by using RWDM to sign the player and then immediately loaned him across to France. This was the biggest of 16 transfers that have taken place between Lyon and an Eagle Football Group club since Textor’s takeover. While not in violation of any regulations (as of now anyway), such deals certainly do not help Lyon’s financial situation.

Of course, Lyon would go on to have a horrific start to the 2023/24 season on the pitch, finding themselves in and around the relegation zone for quite a while. Textor decided that the remedy for that was to go big in the January transfer window, in which Lyon spent well over €50 million on player transfer fees alone. Some of these players did help them miraculously turn their fortunes around to climb all the way up to 5th by the end of the season, winning a European qualification that likely prevented the DNCG from being so strict in the summer of 2024.

Textor made the most of the relative freedom afforded to him, spending near enough another €150 million in a blockbuster transfer window. While they did make 11 new signings, they only sold four players and struck some questionable deals such as signing Moussa Niakhaté for over €30 million. This profligate spending seemed puzzling enough at the time but looks all the more baffling in hindsight.

Will Lyon really be relegated?

Despite all of this mess, it is quite unlikely that Lyon will actually end up getting relegated. They will, however, need to improve their financial situation by the end of the season in order to ensure that.

There are a few ways they could go about doing that. For one, Textor is considering selling his stake in Crystal Palace, the only club he currently owns a non-controlling stake in. His share is reportedly worth around €200 million, which is well over the amount Lyon need to raise to satisfy the DNCG. However, Textor’s total debts far exceed that amount, so the best solution for him will be to solve Lyon’s problems with Lyon’s resources.

Of course, the most straightforward option would be player sales. OL have a rather bloated 29-player first-team squad, so trimming it down would make sense both to raise some money for now and cut down on the wage bill. The likes of Rayan Cherki, Ernest Nuamah, Gift Orban and Malick Fofana are all highly-rated young talents who could bring in significant transfer fees, as could Georges Mikautadze and Maxence Caqueret. However, buyers will surely attempt to lowball Lyon as much as possible with the knowledge of their desperate situation.

Besides those players, Lyon might want to part ways with some of their highest earners in order to lighten their payroll. The likes of Nemanja Matić, Saïd Benrahma, Corentin Tolisso and Moussa Niakhaté are the first names in this category, while top-earner Alexandre Lacazette will likely not get a contract extension and have to depart at the end of the season.

Some tough decisions will need to be made at the Groupama Stadium in the coming weeks and months, but Lyon only have themselves and their owners to blame for the situation they find themselves in.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Lyon game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.