Page 41 – The Pulse of Football

Nov

2024

Preview: Man City go to in-form Liverpool in the midst of a crisis

Liverpool have the opportunity to extend their advantage over Manchester City to 11 points on Sunday as they welcome the reigning Premier League champions to Anfield.

By Sam McGuire

A win would cap off an incredible week for the Reds having already seen off Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday evening.

The season so far

Arne Slot’s side have been almost faultless this term.

The former Feyenoord boss has guided the 2019/20 Premier League champions to 10 wins and a draw in his opening 12 matches in the league while the Reds have a 100% record in cup competitions.

Only Tottenham Hotspur (2.3) are averaging more goals per game than Liverpool (two) in the English top-flight and the Reds have the third-highest Expected Goals total (23.6), so their attacking numbers are fairly sustainable. Defensively, they’re robust. The Merseyside club have kept the most clean sheets (six), have the lowest goals against per game figure (0.7) and have the lowest Expected Goals Against total (10.7).

In a nutshell, their performances are worthy of their position in the Premier League table.

The Reds are bossing it in Europe too having won all five of their Champions League ties this term.

By comparison, it has been a bit of a struggle for Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola’s men started the season well and put together a 13-match unbeaten run. This included a four-match and five-match winning streak. Erling Haaland was scoring goals for fun too, netting back-to-back hat-tricks in the Premier League as he raced clear in the hunt for a third successive Golden Boot.

But then the goals dried up. As did the wins.

Their last victory arrived in October and they head to Anfield winless in six. Their underlying numbers in the Premier League have tailed off too.

City have the ninth best defensive record with an Expected Goals Against total of 15.9. They’re allowing 1.4 goals against per 90 and have kept just two clean sheets. In attack, they’re still dangerous. Their Expected Goals total of 24.4 is the highest in the Premier League. However, they’re scoring just 1.8 goals per 90. Chances aren’t being converted. Couple that with a struggling defence and it is clear why their title bid has been abruptly halted. For now, at least.

Previous encounters

Liverpool’s record against Manchester City hasn’t been that great over recent years. The Reds have won just three of the previous 12 encounters. However, they have only lost on four occasions. A lot of these matches end in a stalemate.

It is worth noting though that Guardiola’s side have hit their opponents for four goals on three occasions. When they do pick up a win over the Merseyside club, it tends to be an emphatic one.

The Reds have won just one of their last four matches against City at Anfield, so home comforts have counted for very little recently in this particular clash.

Current form

City ended their five match losing streak on Tuesday but it wasn’t a cause of celebration. Guardiola’s side took a 3-0 lead against Feyenoord in the Champions League but had to settle for a point as the Eredivisie side scored three goals in the final 16 minutes to stun the Etihad.

*Momentum chart from City’s draw vs. Feyenoord*

The 3-3 draw now means Man City have conceded 17 goals across their last six matches. They have conceded a minimum of two goals in every single match. Feyenoord hit them for three while both Spurs and Sporting scored four times in big wins over the Citizens.

Liverpool, on the other hand, are flying.

Since their shock 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September, the Reds have won 14 of their 15 matches. They are currently on a six match winning streak and have beaten the champions of Spain and Germany during this run. Slot’s side are relentless, ruthless and resilient right now.

The Injury situation

Liverpool are still without some key players despite the returns of Harvey Elliott and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Both were on the bench for the win over Real Madrid. However, Ibrahima Konaté hobbled off at full-time against the LaLiga champions while Conor Bradley was replaced with what looked like a hamstring issue. Those two could join Alisson Becker, Diogo Jota, Kostas Tsmikas and Federico Chiesa on the sidelines for this match.

City are having a bit of an injury crisis right now as well.

Jérémy Doku, Oscar Bobb, Mateo Kovačić and Ballon d’Or winner Rodri are all ruled out. Guardiola’s options in attack and midfield are both severely limited right now but this was always a possibility when the champions decided to sell Julian Alvárez in the summer without bringing in a replacement.

Prediction

This is usually a tepid affair with both teams showing the other a lot of respect.

Slot might see it as an opportunity though. City are having a crisis of confidence right now and Liverpool could take full advantage of this. With Anfield behind them, a statement win could be on the cards. They did it against Madrid. They can do it against the Citizens this week.

We’re going with a Liverpool win.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Premier League game with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Preview: Barcelona host City rivals in reunion with promoted Espanyol

Barcelona will kick off Saturday’s home match against Las Palmas with a four-point advantage at the top of La Liga, but that lead is more fragile than might be immediately apparent.

By Graham Ruthven

Barcelona need a response

While the Catalans are in control of this season’s title race, recent dropped points to Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo have allowed Real Madrid to close the gap at the top of the table. Anything less than a Barca victory on Saturday would hand the initiative to Los Blancos.

Las Palmas are fighting relegation near the foot of the table, but have already taken points from Real Madrid this season and could pose a threat at Montjuic if they can exploit the space in behind Barcelona’s backline.

However, Los Amarillos haven’t beaten Barcelona in a league match away from home since 1971 and in any competition since 1991. A victory at Montjuic this weekend would be historic!

Key players

While Barcelona’s form has recently tapered off, they have still scored six goals in their last three outings with the Catalans fresh from notching three against Brest in the Champions League.

Robert Lewandowski has been particularly prolific in front of goal, scoring eight times in his last 10 appearances at club level. The Polish striker has been rejuvenated this season and is on course for his best scoring campaign as a Barca player.

*Lewandowski vs. Silva comparison, LaLiga stats only*

The dramatic turnaround in Raphinha’s fortunes continues with the Brazilian currently the joint-second top scorer in LaLiga behind only Lewandowski. Flick’s direct approach is getting the best out of the former Leeds United winger.

Pedri is expected to be Barcelona’s string-puller in the centre of the pitch against Las Palmas with Dani Olmo in contention for a start after returning from injury. Barca are spoiled for choice in the attacking positions.

Fabio Silva has scored three goals in his last five LaLiga appearances and the on-loan Wolves forward could also trouble Barcelona. Sandro Ramírez is in line to face his former club, as is goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen who will have to be in top form.

Team news

Lamine Yamal remains an injury doubt having not featured for Barcelona since the Champions League win over Red Star Belgrade earlier this month. The 17-year-old returned to training this week, but Hansi Flick could resist the urge to drop him straight back into the lineup.

Marc Casado will be unavailable for the La Liga leaders after being sent off in the 2-2 draw against Celta Vigo. The young midfielder will serve a one-match suspension this weekend, meaning Flick will have to find another solution at the base of his midfield.

Ronald Araújo, Marc Bernal, Andreas Christensen, Ansu Fati and Marc-André ter Stegen will also be sidelined, although Ferran Torres could be back in Barca’s squad.

Diego Martínez is expected to have a fully fit squad to choose from for the visit to Montjuic with Adnan Januzaj the only Las Palmas player believed to be currently carrying a knock.

Prediction

We can’t look beyond a home win for the league leaders, so let’s go with Barcelona 3-1 Las Palmas.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Preview: Dortmund meet Bayern in Der Klassiker

The stage is set for the 136th edition of Der Klassiker. Which team is coming out on top on Saturday? We’ve got you set with our Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich preview.

By Zach Lowy

Can Bayern’s Stellar Form Continue?

On the 23rd October, Bayern Munich were subjected to a 4-1 defeat at Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League. It was the fourth time in five games that the Bavarians had failed to win and the second time in three that they’d conceded 3+ goals. After a perfect start to life under Vincent Kompany, it seemed that the wheels were falling off.

Since then, though, Bayern have won seven straight games, scoring 18 goals and conceding zero. They sit six points clear atop the Bundesliga and are scoring the most goals per game in Europe (3.24), and after edging Paris Saint-Germain in midweek, they are riding high on confidence.

However, they’ll have their hands full on Saturday as they take on a BVB side that have won four of their last five matches, the sole exception being a 3-1 defeat at Mainz which saw them reduced to 10 men in the 27th minute.

Jamie Gittens: The Man With a Plan

The last time that Borussia Dortmund faced Bayern Munich at Signal Iduna Park, Dayot Upamecano opened the scoring within four minutes while Harry Kane scored a hat-trick. All eyes will be on the reigning European Golden Boot winner as he looks to continue his scintillating form in Dortmund, but he’s not the only English forward who will have a key role to play.

Jamie Gittens kicked off the 2024/25 Bundesliga season by coming off the bench and scoring a brace in Borussia Dortmund’s 2-0 win vs. Eintracht Frankfurt, whilst he repeated that feat in their Champions League opener vs. Club Brugge. He hasn’t looked back since, establishing himself as a key figure in BVB’s attack with 11 goal contributions in 18 matches. Over the past week, he has scored a goal and an assist in a 4-0 win vs. Freiburg and opened the scoring in a 3-0 win vs. Dinamo Zagreb, and with Karim Adeyemi and (likely) Julian Brandt missing out, Nuri Şahin will be counting on him to deliver. After Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham before him, Gittens could very well be the next Englishman to explode onto the scene at Dortmund – and we’re backing the 20-year-old to come up clutch against eternal rivals Bayern.

Goals Galore in Dortmund

It remains to be seen whether or not Borussia Dortmund can pull off back-to-back wins vs. Bayern for the first time since the spring of 2012, but two things are fairly probable: this will be a high-scoring affair, and it will not be a draw. Out of Bayern and BVB’s last 18 matches, only one has ended in a draw. Things are looking up for Dortmund after a league-high six wins out of six, but as for Bayern, they have dropped points just once on the road – a 3-3 draw vs. Eintracht back in October.

Both teams will be missing key figures in midfield like Aleksandar Pavlović and Emre Can, and it could result in less controlled possession and more frantic attacking play. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these two sides have featured over 3.5 goals, whilst 13 of BVB’s last 15 fixtures have served up over 2.5 goals. With both of last season’s top two Bundesliga scorers – Kane and Serhou Guirassy – in fine form, all signs point to a high-scoring affair on Saturday.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Bundesliga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

The Alternative MLS Awards from FotMob

Major League Soccer’s awards season is approaching its finale as the Most Valuable Player for 2024 is set to be announced soon, with Lionel Messi among the favourites.

By James Nalton

There have been several standout players across the league this year, from new signings to standout young players; and comebacks to defensive performances.

Combining the data with the eye test, here is a look at the players in each category, and an assessment of the award winners already announced.

Messi for MVP?

The headline award of the season is the only one for which the winner has yet to be announced.

A lot of the data suggests Lionel Messi is the obvious choice for this award, but it’s not that simple.

He has the highest average FotMob rating, is second in the goalscoring charts, is joint top for goals and assists combined, averages more than one goal per 90 minutes, and leads the way for expected goals plus expected assists per 90.

Despite all of this, his lack of game time has left the MVP award discussion open to other contenders who have appeared more regularly throughout the season. The most notable among these is the regularly impressive Cucho Hernández of Columbus Crew, while there are also outside shouts for Golden Boot winner Christian Benteke of DC Untied, Evander of Portland, and Messi’s Inter Miami teammate Luis Suárez.

Messi started just 15 of his team’s 34 regular season games (the awards are judged on the regular season and not the playoffs) and made four appearances off the bench.

There was a point as the season came to a close when he hadn’t played the required amount of games or minutes to appear on many statistical leaderboards.

A flurry of appearances towards the end of the season remedied that, and scoring eight goals in seven appearances to round off the campaign also helped.

Those per 90 numbers show how good he’s been in the games he has played. His goals per 90 of 1.21 and his goals plus assists per 90 of 1.82 are the highest in MLS regular season history.

*Messi shot map, including play-off data, MLS 2024*

It has been more of the same Messi we’ve been used to seeing light up games with Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, and Argentina.

Despite playing in a lower standard of league, his performances have been so good that he can count himself unlucky not to have been included on the shortlist for the Ballon d’Or, especially as he has the requisite big international tournament honour to his name in 2024 after winning Copa America with Argentina.

Coach of the Year

This is the second big award that came down to a choice between Columbus Crew and Inter Miami.

Tata Martino deserves credit for guiding Inter Miami through a run of nine games without Messi and winning eight of them.

Regardless of the talent at his disposal, winning the MLS Supporters’ Shield with a record-breaking points total is no easy feat.

It’s also easy to forget that such a season for Inter Miami was not widely predicted. Of the 17 experts asked by the official MLS website for their predictions at the start of the season, 14 had Inter Miami finishing between 3rd and 7th in the Eastern Conference, and only three had them winning it.

This is why the eventual winner, Columbus Crew’s Wilfried Nancy, was not the most obvious choice for some.

The Crew won the MLS Cup last season and the Leagues Cup in 2024, but these two trophies are not quite enough to call them an all-time great MLS team. That said, this Crew side can comfortably be called one of the best teams we’ve ever seen in MLS, and much of this is down to the coaching of Nancy and the way the players have responded to it.

They also managed to maintain a challenge in the league for much of the season while also embarking on deep runs in the Concacaf Champions League and Leagues Cup, which is not an easy feat with MLS roster restrictions.

If there’s one non-Messi game you’d want to watch each week in MLS (and as mentioned earlier, there were quite a few of those) it would be Nancy’s Columbus Crew.

They have transcended the league and are simply a great team to watch in world football. Few MLS teams have ever managed this, and this is why Nancy deserves the award.

Defender of the Year

Columbus Crew’s style of play has also influenced Defender of the Year voting and led to many a debate on what defines good defending.

The Crew’s Steven Moreira would have been my pick and eventually won the award, but he was not an obvious choice when it came to defensive work.

Given this award also includes full-backs, many of whose defensive duties became a secondary part of their game long ago, giving it to a central defender would initially seem like a safe, more traditional option.

But Moreira’s style of play in the Crew setup — in which he’s involved in the build-up play and bursting forward from his position as a right centre-back in a three — leads to a data profile that doesn’t look much like a defender.

The Crew’s control of possession also means there isn’t as much traditional defensive work to do in areas such as tackling and intercepting.

Seattle centre-backs Yeimar Gómez Andrade and Jackson Regen were more obvious candidates from a purely defensive standpoint. Yeimar led MLS for interceptions (63 in 30 starts) and Seattle had the best defence in the league.

Defensive data alone would see the award go to Yeimar, and it would be deserved, but Moreira emerging as the winner shows there are more ways to defend with the ball in the modern game.

Goalkeeper of the Year

The goalkeeper award picks itself both from the eye test and from the stats.

For much of the season, New York City’s number one Matt Freese was neck and neck with Kristijan Kahlina but the Charlotte man continued his extraordinary form right until the end.

Bafflingly, neither Freese nor Kahlina made the MLS All-Star game this season, while Freese didn’t make the three finalists for goalkeeper of the year.

Maybe goalkeeping is a blind spot for MLS judges, but there was no doubting who would eventually win the award.

That said, it’s a surprise Kahlina only gained 35% of the overall vote from players, clubs, and the media combined. Hugo Lloris of Los Angeles FC got the highest percentage of a the player vote with 16% with Kahlina at just 11%.

Newcomer of the Year

This award was between Gabriel Pec of LA Galaxy and Inter Miami’s Suárez.

Pec won out thanks to a highly productive season, easily reaching double figures for goals and assists, with 19 goals and 15 assists so far as the Galaxy continue in the playoffs.

The Brazilian played a big role in LA Galaxy’s transformation this season, which was arguably more impressive than Inter Miami’s.

Pec has the fourth-highest average rating in MLS, behind Messi, teammate Ricqui Puig, and Evander.

Young Player of the Year

Andres Gomes would likely have been the young player of the year had he not left Real Salt Lake midway through the season.

His teammate Diego Luna eventually, and deservedly, won the award for being part of the RSL team that maintained a good position in the West despite losing Gomes and a late downturn in form from top scorer Cristian Arango.

However, the eligible player with the highest average rating is Philadelphia Union’s Jack McGlynn. The creative midfielder who likes to shoot from long range was probably overlooked due to the Union’s disappointing season and will be hoping he and his team can produce better results in 2025.

Comeback Player of the Year

This is not an award to be judged on statistics as it’s often about a player overcoming a difficult period, usually an injury, and making a successful return.

My vote would have gone to Inter Miami’s Ian Fray, who made 14 appearances and played 643 minutes this season after coming back from three serious knee injuries.

Sadly, Fray picked up a meniscus injury in the playoffs, but given the timing of it before the off-season break, he should be back next year.

The eventual winner, Lewis Morgan of the New York Red Bulls, had to overcome his own injury issues.

It was almost miraculous that he returned in 2024 looking like the player he was prior to a hip operation in September 2023 that, according to MLS, gave him just a 20-25% chance of returning to peak performance. There was even a 15% chance that he might not play again.

His performances were so good, they earned him regular call-ups to the Scotland squad which can be difficult when playing in a non-European league like MLS.

Such a comeback was not an easy one and the award was fully deserved. The role he’s played for the team as they make their unlikely playoff run further reinforces this.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW13

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

*But before we start – a reminder that with a Friday night game this week the FPL deadline is early – make your transfers and sort your team out before 18:30 GMT*

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

Matheus Cunha (7.0m) has been consistently one of the highest scorers in FPL since GW6 and Cunha has performed exceptionally well ever since I tipped him in this column ahead of GW9, returning points in every single game. Cunha scored twice in last time out, one a tidy finish from six yards out, and the other an incredible strike from outside the 18 yard box. Although Cunha has overperformed his stats, by quite a distance, he definitely also passes the eye test. Wolves’ fixtures have been good for a few weeks, but it is definitely not too late to bring him into your team as Cunha has Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich, Leicester, and Man Utd coming up. His expected stats, on the other hand, are not the best, but they are definitely solid with 0.5 xGi (Expected Goal Involvements) per 90 over the course of the Premier League season so far.

*Cunha shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Bukayo Saka (10.2m) wouldn’t have failed to impress those patient owners that have stuck with him last weekend, either, scoring 13 points at home to Nottingham Forest. He was nothing short of fantastic in that game. It is clear that Saka, and Arsenal in general, benefits a lot from Martin Ødegaard‘s return from injury. Saka only accumulated 0.53 xGi in the game against Nottingham Forest, but he is definitely dangerous. Which we also saw on Tuesday against Sporting, where he converted his penalty and assisted Kai Havertz. Even in that game, most of the chances created were from the right hand side. Buying Arsenal players was a good idea last week and it is this week as well. Because of their upcoming fixtures, Saka is one I am certainly considering for the future.

Long shot

Milos Kerkez (4.4) plays for a Bournemouth team who have only kept one clean sheet so far this season. But the Cherries have a had their fair share of tough fixtures and things are looking better on that front going forward. Buying Kerkez for your team will only cost you 4.4 million making him a cheap defender who can rotate with other budget options like Rayan Aït-Nouri, Noussair Mazraoui, Rico Lewis, Ola Aina or may even be a replacement for Antonee Robinson who’s Fulham side have some very tough fixtures coming up.

Kerkez plays as an offensive full back and his xGi is 0.12 per 90. Bournemouth vs. Ipswich in GW15, vs. West Ham in GW16 and maybe even vs. Wolves in GW13 are games you can easily play the Hungarian full back.

Upcoming games to follow

A lot of FPL managers might be starting to run out of patience with Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m) but with Brentford playing Leicester at home in GW13 I expect him to return with a goal involvement. Having said that, Mbeumo has been playing very wide and has therefore not been involved as much as of late. The Bees rarely keep clean sheets (they got their first of the season in GW12) and I expect a high scoring game.

Brighton play Southampton in the Friday night game. I talked about João Pedro (5.6m) last week and he didn’t disappoint, scoring 12 points in GW12. I have finally brought Pedro back into my team and I am really looking forward to seeing what he can do against a leaky Southampton defence. Other players I am keeping tabs on in that game are Kaoru Mitoma (6.4m) and Pervis Estupiñán (5.0m)

Chelsea are up against Aston Villa on Sunday and I am again curious to see what Cole Palmer (10.9m) can produce after blanking three games in a row. Nicolas Jackson (8.0m) scored a goal and got an assist against Leicester last weekend, he’s also a player to watch out for.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

Did you know that you can track live Fantasy points with FotMob? Simply select any Premier League game, swipe to the Lineup tab, and press the big ‘Fantasy’ button! Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Premier League Preview, Matchday 13

The festive season is nearly upon us. And you know that that means, don’t you? More football. So much football, in fact, you’ll be fed up with it. It becomes almost a daily occurrence as broadcasters everywhere give us a steady stream of live Premier League football to gorge on.

By Sam McGuire

Before that, though, we have Matchday 13 in the English top-flight to look forward to. So here’s what you can look out for this weekend.

The João Pedro show

João Pedro is looking to make up for lost time.

The Brighton forward suffered an ankle injury against Nottingham Forest in September and missed a chunk of the season. It ended what had been a bright start for the former Watford forward. Pedro found the back of the net in the win over Manchester United and a draw with Arsenal.

He returned for the recent match against Manchester City, coming off of the bench to win the game for the Seagulls with a goal and an assist. The 23-year-old was then named in the starting XI for the game against Bournemouth and, again, he turned out to be the difference-maker for Brighton. He scored the opener and then played one of the passes of the season to assist the winner, with Kaoru Mitoma finding the back of the net.

The Brazilian striker now has four goals and two assists in 370 minutes for the Seagulls. He’ll fancy his chances of adding to those numbers this weekend as Brighton take on South Coast rivals Southampton on Friday evening. The Saints have one of the worst defensive records in the Premier League having conceded 24 goals while Fabian Hürzeler’s side are quite potent in attack having scored 21 goals. Only Manchester City (22), Chelsea (23), Liverpool (24) and Spurs (27) have found the back of the net with greater regularity.

A win for the Seagulls would lift them into second position in the Premier League, at least momentarily. And Pedro will be key to whether or not this happens.

Wolves are on the prowl

Gary O’Neil’s side are currently on a four match unbeaten streak. Wolves held Brighton and Crystal Palace to 2-2 draws before recording a 2-0 win over Southampton in a bottom-of-the-table clash and then romping to a 4-1 victory against an in-form Fulham side.

A win at Molineux on Saturday could lift them as high as 15th in the Premier League table. Wolves host an out-of-sorts Bournemouth side. The Cherries are 13th in the table and have recorded wins over Manchester City and Arsenal this term, as well as picking up a draw against Aston Villa. However, they have lost their last two outings.

Brentford claimed a 3-2 win over Andoni Irola’s side before Brighton picked up all three points against Bournemouth last time out.

If results go against them this weekend, they could end Matchday 13th just three points above the dropzone. Their good work earlier in the season will have been undone, to an extent.

To get anything out of this game, they are going to have to limit the involvement of Matheus Cunha. The Wolves forward is in ridiculous form. His 9.3 rating against Fulham was the highest of Matchday 12 and he’s got seven goal involvements in his last four outings in the English top-flight.

Momentum shifter

On Sunday afternoon, Chelsea host Aston Villa in a game that could be pivotal for both sides.

Unai Emery’s men have hit a rough patch at the worst possible time. Villa are winless in seven across all competitions. Their last victory arrived well over a month ago and it was in the Champions League against Bologna.

Defeat this weekend could see them drop into the bottom half of the table. A win, however, would lift them back into top four contention. One positive result can completely change the momentum of a team. And Villa will be banking on this before the 2024/25 campaign gets away from them before we even enter 2025.

Chelsea, meanwhile, could finish the weekend in second if results go their way. Enzo Maresca has his side playing some good football this season. The Blues have the fourth highest Expected Goals haul in the Premier League and they’ve averaged the third most goals in the English top-flight.

The Blues have lost just twice all season, to reigning champions Man City on the opening day and to current leaders Liverpool at Anfield. They’re on yet another four-match unbeaten streak and the longer they’re able to extend this, the more momentum they have heading into the busiest time of the season.

Reigning champions versus title contenders

Liverpool and Manchester City played out some classics during the Jürgen Klopp era. Over the last 12 matches, City have four wins and Liverpool have three. Generally, they’re quite tight affairs.

But when City pick up a victory against the Reds, they usually romp to victory. They have scored four goals in three of these wins, for example.

The same cannot be said for Liverpool. They usually eke out wins over Pep Guardiola’s side.

There might be an opportunity for revenge this weekend. The Reds are in rampant form this season. They have ruthlessly won 15 of the 17 games they have played in all competitions. They are top of the Premier League and have a 100% record in the Champions League. They’re coming up against an out-of-sorts Manchester City side who are winless in six having lost five on the bounce before their 3-3 draw with Feyenoord.

If ever there was an opportunity to send a message or put in a statement showing against the reigning champions, it is now. If they manage it, they’ll have an 11 point advantage over City with just 13 games on the board.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Ricardo Pepi: The USMNT striker leading the Eredivisie goalscoring charts

Ricardo Pepi has had to bide his time at PSV. Signed by the Dutch club in July 2023, the American striker has largely been a depth option. He has been rotated in and out of the team and brought off the bench in games. His opportunities have been limited, but Pepi is now twisting manager Peter Bosz’s arm to start him.

By Graham Ruthven

Pepi has scored in each of his last four starts for PSV in all competitions, and he was on hand to score the winner, albeit from the bench, in the Dutch club’s remarkable Champions League comeback against Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday night.

His hat trick in last Saturday’s 5-0 thumping of FC Groningen made him the joint-top scorer in the Eredivisie for the 2024/25 season, highlighting his efficiency in front of goal. The 21-year-old is averaging a goal every 56 minutes.

And yet it’s still not certain that he is PSV’s first-choice centre forward. Luuk de Jong has started all five of the club’s Champions League matches this season with the 34-year-old also starting nine league games compared to Pepi’s four. Despite the American’s incredible form, Bosz continues to rotate.

“Ricardo [Pepi] did a great job, and it’s great to have two players of such high quality for this position,” said Bosz after Pepi’s impressive hat trick against FC Groningen in the Eredivisie. “But there’s no need to bring Luuk [de Jong] into question every time Pepi scores. Both are crucial for us, and who plays is my decision.”

The two strikers are very different. While de Jong is a quintessential frontman, giving PSV aerial threat and a focal point to play into and hold up the ball, Pepi is a classic penalty box operator. His game revolves around taking up good positions inside the area to find the back of the net, as he has been doing regularly of late.

For club and country, Pepi is in fine form. Indeed, the 21-year-old was similarly productive for the US men’s national team in the most recent international window, scoring in back-to-back CONCACAF Nations League games against Jamaica. His finish in the second leg of the quarter-final was particularly polished, guiding the ball into the far corner after cutting inside.

It was the sort of cutting edge the USMNT has lacked from its centre forwards of late. Folarin Balogun, Josh Sargent and Brandon Vazquez have all been used in the position since the 2022 World Cup with inconsistent results. Most view Balogun as the American striker with the highest ceiling, but Pepi’s goals are reshaping the discussion.

While Pepi’s goalscoring displays against Jamaica might have moved him to the top of the USMNT pecking order, they also highlighted the improvements he’s still to make. As a traditional frontman, Pepi must get better at holding up play with his back to goal. He simply has to be more involved in possession phases.

To make that progression, Pepi might have to leave PSV, particularly if his form still isn’t enough to dislodge de Jong from the lineup. Liverpool and Manchester City have been linked with the American while Atlético Madrid are also believed to be monitoring Pepi’s situation. Some of Europe’s biggest clubs are seemingly interested.

Of course, Pepi must be wise in picking the right club for his continued development should he make the decision to leave PSV. He needs game time to build on his natural talent and he might not get that at Anfield or the Etihad Stadium. There wouldn’t be much point in Pepi swapping one bench at PSV for another one somewhere else.

PSV are currently leading the way at the top of the Eredivisie having won 12 of their 13 games played so far. The Eindhoven-based team are well-placed to retain the title they won last season when de Jong finished as the division’s joint-top scorer with an eye-catching 29 goals in 34 games. Newcastle United fans must be confused by the veteran’s continued output.

This season, however, Pepi is intent on being the one to spearhead PSV’s title challenge. At only 21, the American is still learning his trade and has come a long way from his early struggles at Augsburg following a record $20m transfer from FC Dallas. There is room for him to grow further at his current club, especially if he keeps scoring at his current rate.

Whether it’s at PSV or somewhere else, Pepi is clearly ready to take the next step. His potential has been clear for a long time and that is now being realised on the pitch. The road Pepi is now on could lead to another Eredivisie title, a move to one of Europe’s biggest clubs, and a starting spot for the USA at the 2026 World Cup. It’s all in front of him.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Eredivisie and the Champions League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Dejan Kulusevski has been Tottenham’s star: How do Spurs keep getting the best out of him?

He hasn’t been shy about confirming and confronting his form of late, and why not? “I think I have something that no other player has,” he said after another monster performance, this time eviscerating Manchester City and sending his Tottenham side back into Champions League contention.

By Karl Matchett

The temptation for managers when stars hit form is to keep them in their role and move others around them. At Spurs, there’s another option – at least when it comes to the magnificently in-form Dejan Kulusevski.

The Swedish attacker has been a conduit and an outlet for Spurs, chance-provider and chance-taker this season. Far more important, he has been the link player between midfield and attack, the transition master, the counter-attacking threat who takes them from defensive third to attacking penalty box with his dribbling, tenacity and engine.

Ange Postecoglou has had him operating in a range of roles this year; often a winger, right-sided and cutting in, Kulusevski has instead been a master of surging centrally, playing an offensive No. 8 role from midfield, powerfully driving into the channels and leaving opposition holders in his wake.

There might not be a single trait Kulusevski has that will see him top the statistical charts every single season, but the bigger impact from him, the reason he is such a weapon and has become so important to his team, is that he does everything very well.

“You can’t compare me to any other player, so this is what I’m looking for,” went the rest of his post-match comments. “I take the best stuff from them, but with my engine, you know, with my heart – I don’t get tired – I feel like I can do a lot still in my career. I don’t get tired and I can’t let anybody outwork me. That’s the plan. That’s how I play and how I train.”

*Kulusevski possession stats, Premier League 2024/25*

Which is fair enough, when you watch him burst past people in the first and 90th minutes alike, when he’s played more league minutes this season than any other attacker in the squad and when he’s provided more assists than anyone else Postecoglou can call upon. See, he’s not top of Spurs’ stats lists for the Premier League this season when it comes to goals, or assists, or expected either one of those. He’s not top for dribbles, shots or big chances created per 90. Different names top pretty much each of those categories. But he’s among their best at each of those, which is unique to him: Kulusevski will give you some of everything across the board every time he takes the pitch.

And, of course, his consistency this term is vital. Spurs are notoriously…well, Spursy they call it. Capable of losing at home to Ipswich one week and beating Man City away the next, for example. But Kulusevski has kept his level, kept providing chances, kept running for sure. He does top the metrics in two particular areas of the team, which is notable: possessions won in the final third (16, 1.5 per 90) and total chances created (33, 3.1 per 90).

*Spurs chance creators, Premier League 2024/25*

Check around the Premier League for comparable position players for players who have managed more you won’t find any, in either category – or for touches in the box, or for shots blocked. Simply put, he’s a wrecking ball at one end and does more than his fair share at the other, too. Around comparable leagues and players, he’s in the 93rd percentile for chances created and yet also 74th percentile for defensive actions. That’s a rare type of combination player, and it gives Postecoglou significant options from a tactical perspective.

*Kulusevski passing stats, Premier League 2024/25*

As noted, Kulusevski has been playing as effectively an attacking central midfielder. That’s not totally new – he played as a No. 10 in Italy and has done for the national team – but it is deeper at times. He’s also played as a striker before, so his versatility is endless in the attacking half. Yet flicking him wide allows not just a rest for Brennan Johnson, but also to reincorporate James Maddison into the team in a more attacking central role – just as was the case at City, when the pair combined so well for the opening goal.

Postecoglou has a juggling act to perform to an extent, because while both players would ideally be in his lineup, Spurs as a whole have been too flimsy, too inconsistent, too unreliable to start both of them as twin No. 8s across a midfield three. One on the flank and one centrally though looks solid, particularly with the likes of Yves Bissouma and Pape Sarr behind. It’s perhaps easy to say that double pivot should be in place permanently, leaving two attacking spots free for the likes of Johnson, Son Heung Min, Dominic Solanke and the rest to fight for. But they are also all seen as starters, and they can’t all do so every game.

Postecoglou must continue to rotate, to refresh and to make it clear that the only way to stay in the team and be seen as a must-start player is to maintain consistency and impact in the final third. That’s how Tottenham find the overall cohesion game after game after game they have lacked for so long. That’s how they climb the table, and stay there: consistency, not Spursy.

In other words, the wider team must emulate what Kulusevski has been doing all along, regardless of his starting role.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Preview: Ranieri’s new Roma side face Postecoglu’s Spurs in the Europa League

Tottenham Hotspur excelled in their 4-0 win over Manchester City at the weekend and as part of their ongoing search for consistency, they take on Roma in the Europa League on Thursday.

By Kaustubh Pandey

Postecoglou vs. Ranieri

Spurs obliterated City on Saturday and could have easily scored more goals. Dejan Kulusevski sparkled, as Ange Postecoglou‘s side executed their plan to perfection, pressing City high up the pitch and playing through their press at will.

In contrast, their Europa League opponents for the week are the crisis team in Serie A this season. We’ve yet to reach the mid-way point and Roma are already on to their third manager of the campaign, with Claudio Ranieri coming out of retirement and returning to the dugout in time to oversee their dull 1-0 loss at Napoli over the weekend.

Ivan Jurić was sacked before the international break and there is now expected to be a stylistic change in how the Giallorossi play, as Jurić’s brand of football revolved around high-pressing and man marking. Ranieri is more pragmatic and it was seen in the defeat to the Partenopei.

Roma look for renewed hope

The Giallorossi have won only once in their last five games in all competitions and frustratingly have dropped points in three of their Europa League games so far – drawing with Union St Gilloise and Athletic Club, and beaten by Swedish side Elfsborg.

They do have a win over Dynamo Kiev on the books but that performance was indicative of the Roman club’s struggle for a new identity this season. It also defines their struggles under the Friedkins, who’s ownership group have been protested against by the club’s supporters every second day.

Perhaps, an identity is what Ranieri can actually add to a side quickly. Jurić could have too, if he was given time but patience ran low and the expectation from the club would be to play a low-block in a back three under Ranieri.

New signing Matías Soulé hasn’t quite settled in yet but it is new striker Artem Dovbyk who appears to be gaining in confidence after a slow start.

Top scorer in LaLiga last season, Dovbyk has four league goals in Serie A so far and his presence upfront attracts defenders, as the Ukrainian thrives on quality link-up with those around him and can be a crucial weapon on the break, especially if Paulo Dybala starts alongside him.

Spurs want attack to thrive

A case can be made of the fact that Spurs could have scored more goals against Galatasaray, but Postecoglou has this incredible insistence on putting his attacking strengths on show, even if it puts the defensive worries on the backseat. It is risky but when it works, it works brilliantly.

They have an unpredictable side to them, but Spurs have scored the most goals per game in the Premier League this season, while also conceding the third lowest number of goals per game.

It clearly shows how entertaining a side they are and considering the raw numbers, they could well turn out to be pretty good at the end of the season.

Having said that, both Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero remain out – as they were against City. Rodrigo Bentancur remains suspended and this will lead to Postecoglou having to adapt the line-up for the clash against Roma.

Dybala boost for Roma

Reports in Italy have suggested that Dybala is fit and he could start the game. He has been put in a couple of good performances against Tottenham in the past and Roma will rely on him.

Mats Hummels, who has suffered so far in Rome, could also start and so could Mario Hermoso. Soule and Lorenzo Pellegrini are also in contention to start.

As far as Spurs are concerned, Guglielmo Vicario is out for the next few weeks. Fraser Forster will start in goal and Lucas Bergvall is also expected to feature again. And after being benched against City, both Timo Werner and Brennan Johnson are likely to start.

Prediction

This will depend entirely on how well Ranieri has drilled his new side in the few short days he’s been at the club, and whether they can stop Postecoglou’s in-form attackers. But with Spurs riding the wave of that display against City, we can’t see beyond a home win for the London side.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Nov

2024

Preview: Amorim set for Old Trafford debut in the Europa League

Bodø/Glimt, the reigning Norwegian champions face the Red Devils before a vital weekend back in the Eliteserien that will decide this season’s title race in Norway’s top tier.

By Filip Mishov

Recent form and context

Not only did Ed Sheeran infamously crashed Rúben Amorim‘s post-match interview with Sky Sports, but his Tractor Boys halted the Red Devils’ attempt to extend their winning streak with a brave performance at Portman Road. It is fair to say that the Portuguese’s debut did not go as planned with Ipswich dominating for most part of the match, while Manchester United‘s misfiring attack continues to underperform as they recorded a low xG (0.90), which is one of Amorim’s many tasks to solve.

Now, a home debut awaits Amorim under the Old Trafford lights in the Europa League and the possibility to secure his maiden win at the helm arises in front of the Red Army, which will surely welcome the so-called ‘Smiling One’ with open arms. Bodø/Glimt are coming to the Theatre of Dreams in the first-ever competitive match between Manchester United and a Norwegian club in UEFA’s club competitions, which seems quite astonishing given the club’s recent trips to Norway during their pre-season summer tours.

The Bodø-based club are coming to Manchester on the back of a win (0-2) in the penultimate round in Eliteserien, and ahead of a season-defining clash in Norway’s top-tier on Sunday as the Kjetil Knutsen-led squad host Lillestrøm, while second-placed Brann play third-placed Viking in the final round too. With only a point separating the reigning Norwegian champions from Brann and only three points ahead of Viking, it is fair to say that Glimt may have one eye on the weekend.

Team news

It was not all doom and gloom for Amorim at Portman Road as Luke Shaw made his comeback after spending 280 days on the sidelines, and additionally, Tyrell Malacia made the matchday squad, which is a huge boost for the Red Devils ahead of the hectic Christmas period. However, the wonderkid – Leny Yoro was not part of the squad, despite the Frenchman taking part in full training and the match against Glimt might be the perfect opportunity for him to finally make his debut. Harry Maguire, Victor Lindelof and Lisandro Martinez remain on the sidelines, with the latter the closest to making a comeback in a couple of weeks. As for the Scandinavian visitors, it will be interesting to see whether the coach, Knutsen will rest some of his key players given the club’s title defence is on the line and the fact that Glimt have had a superior start to the Europa League’s campaign than United, sitting in 12th place with a point ahead of the hosts who found themselves in 15th place.

Key Player

Jens Petter Hauge made the step to Europe’s top 5 leagues too soon with his move to AC Milan a few years ago, but the 25-year-old’s talent and ability are undeniable as the playmaking winger continues to impress in the yellow of Glimt. With seven goals and five assists in Norway’s top-tier and a couple of goals and one assists in the Europa League, the Red Devils’ defence must be aware of his threat coming in from the left. Also, given the fact that Amorim favoured Amad Diallo at right wing-back over a natural defender against Ipswich, that might be where Glimt can look to exploit the hosts vulnerabilities.

Prediction

The Red Devils are on an unbeaten five-match run in all competitions under Ruud van Nistelrooy and Amorim, respectively, and the expectation will be that this is a good chance for their new charismatic coach to pick up a maiden win. However, Bodø/Glimt are a quality side, and they have already defeated FC Porto this season, which Manchester United failed to do, and Jens Petter Hauge & co. are especially dangerous on the counter.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, player ratings. Download the free app here.