Page 35 – The Pulse of Football

Dec

2024

Bournemouth’s secret: How the smallest club in the Premier League continues to succeed

Despite being one of Europe’s more modest top-flight clubs, Bournemouth have consistently defied expectations. They sit four points out of the top four, are on track for a 61 point season and consistently punch above their weight. Some extraordinary statistics demonstrate why Andoni Iraola’s distinctive high-pressing tactics allow them to compete against football powerhouses.

By Josh Gans

Bournemouth play their home matches in the smallest stadium in the Premier League, the Vitality Stadium, which houses just over 11,000 seats. To put this into perspective, it is the 67th largest stadium in English football, with fewer seats than 61 professional clubs and three non-league clubs. Their promotion in 2015 marked their top flight debut, and following their return in 2022, they were every bookie’s favourite to go back down. This is not a traditionally wealthy club with a history of success, but they managed to redefine themselves, with limited resources, into a stable Premier League side that will not roll over for anybody.

The Spanish manager has reshaped Bournemouth again by utilising his high pressing tactics. His players put their stamp on the match from the offset, setting the standard for the match and posing a particular threat to possession-based opponents. When utilised effectively, the high press disrupts these clubs’ usual comfort on the ball and causes panic among the players. Their wins over Arsenal, Manchester City, and most recently Tottenham, have epitomised this.

*Top stats from the win over Manchester City, Nov 2024*

Those standout statistics

Per match this season, the Cherries have won the most possessions in the final third (6.6), most tackles in the middle third of the pitch (8.7), second most interceptions (9.6), and most fouls committed (13.7).

They have the fourth highest xG at 30.9, despite only netting 23 goals. Their attackers are underperforming in front of goal, so they should be even more successful than they have been. They are also top six or seven in nearly every attacking statistic except possession, where they rank 16th (44.8%).

Three of the top four players with most possession won in the final third are Cherries: Alex Scott is first (2.4 per 90) despite his meniscus injury, while David Brooks (1.9) and Luis Sinisterra (1.8) sit third and fourth respectively.

Key players

Even after Scott’s injury, Ryan Christie and Lewis Cook have maintained the energy, forming a cohesive ball-winning partnership in the midfield. Tyler Adams is also coming back into the picture, adding leadership and intensity to the mix.

The attack complements the midfield in this system. Sinisterra and Antoine Semenyo are both among the top wingers in the league in possession won in the final third. Dango Ouattara has made 2.4 successful tackles per 90 (93.3% success rate), the most by any attacker. Club-record-signing Evanilson fits seamlessly into this system, offering a high press that has already led to five penalties. None of these players are household names but they each provide a pivotal piece to the puzzle.

Dean Court

There is also something unique about Dean Court (AKA the Vitalit Stadium for sponsorship reasons) that makes it such a difficult place for teams to visit. Not only is it geographically among the furthest distances to travel in England, but it’s intimate nature plays a significant factor. Given its size, there is an echo that reverberates around the ground. A side that thrives off of causing opponents discomfort with an energetic high press functions well in a small, compact arena, especially when the home crowd gets behind their side, pouncing on every misstep from the opposition. This creates a less familiar environment for these big clubs.

Recent results setting the standard

The 2-0 win against Arsenal delivered a prime case study of Iraola’s effectiveness. When immense pressure forced the Gunners into a dangerous backpass, William Saliba was obliged to make a rash decision to bring down Evanilson, whose chaotic influence got him sent off. Their second goal came from a penalty from another stray ball backwards, forcing David Raya to take down the Brazilian striker. Bournemouth lost the possession battle 51-49% despite being a man up, but dominated in every other category. Iraola didn’t heavily shift the system after the red card, they still conceded possession and it paid off.

The Cherries nearly scored a minute into their 2-1 win against Manchester City, after Semenyo won it in midfield and sparked a spirited counter attack. This set the tone for the match and City never recovered. Again, Bournemouth lost the possession battle 64-36%, but had higher xG and missed four big chances, so it could have been a greater margin of victory.

In their recent 1-0 win over Spurs, they lost the possession battle 66-34%, yet won the xG battle 3.71 – 0.87, missed six big chances and scored multiple offside goals directly from winning possession. If anything, 1-0 was a flattering scoreline for the visitors.

Bournemouth’s success against the Premier League’s elite is no fluke. They are not just winning but outplaying these teams. By embracing their limitations and turning them into advantages – through relentless energy, fearlessness, and personnel – the Cherries have become a side no one wants to face.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Is it time for Man City to unleash Jeremy Doku?

It has been seven months since Manchester City became the first team in English football history to win four straight top-flight championships after defeating West Ham 3-1 on the final day. As far as City fans are concerned, it may as well be seven years: the Cityzens have lost seven of their last 10 matches, whilst they’ve also relinquished a three-goal lead in a home draw vs. Feyenoord and drawn at Crystal Palace.

By Zach Lowy

City sit 22nd in the UEFA Champions League table, one point outside of the drop zone, and after four consecutive trips to the continental elite’s final four, they find themselves in peril of missing out on a spot in the Champions League knockout round for the first time in 12 years.

Over the past decade, it has typically been City who ride into the Manchester derby brimming with confidence, whilst Manchester United enter in desperate need of a victory. This time, however, the circumstances couldn’t be more different. While Rúben Amorim is enjoying his honeymoon period at Manchester United with three wins in his last five, Pep Guardiola finds himself under the most pressure of his entire managerial career. City sit fifth in the Premier League table, one point below Nottingham Forest, and two points above Aston Villa, and they can ill afford another slip-up in Sunday’s crosstown derby at the Etihad. They need a shot in the arm, a player who can give their stagnant frontline an injection of unpredictability and dynamism…they need Jérémy Doku.

Born in Antwerp, Belgium to Ghanaian parents, Doku became the second-youngest player to debut for Anderlecht at 16 years, 5 months and 26 days on 25 November 2018. He spent the next two years working alongside former Manchester City and Belgium captain Vincent Kompany, who served as both his teammate and manager, scoring 6 goals and 7 assists in 37 appearances before leaving his boyhood club in October 2020 and joining Rennes for a club-record €26 million.

“Doku always impressed me from a young age because he has some absolutely terrific skills that you’re either born with or not,” said Sacha Tavolieri, L’Èquipe’s Belgian football specialist. “When he was 16, he was already being viewed as the best player that Anderlecht’s academy had produced since Romelu Lukaku. He’s so quick and explosive…he’s one of the rare players whose acceleration allows him to make a massive difference in such short spaces. However, he needs to improve his first touch and turning radius in order to make the most of his speed.”

“Doku initially struggled at Rennes because of his entourage. They gave him too much freedom: he would often leave Rennes and return to Brussels during his time off, he didn’t take care of his health during the offseason and would get injured as a result. However, once he broke it off with them, he started performing and soon became targeted by Guardiola himself.”

He didn’t exactly hit the ground running in France with just 4 goals and 6 assists in 55 appearances across his first two seasons, and he even found himself relegated to the bench during the first half of the 2022/23 campaign. However, after changing numbers and trading the #11 for the #10 following Kamaldeen Sulemana’s departure in January 2023, Doku finally managed to deliver his best football in Brittany with 7 goal contributions in his last 8 matches of 2022/23.

*Successful dribbles per 90, Premier League 2023/24*

It didn’t take long before City snapped him up for £55 million, with Doku quickly adjusting to life in England. He registered 4.9 successful dribbles per 90 – more than any other player in the division – and alongside Rasmus Højlund and Alejandro Garnacho, he was one of only three U-21 players to register 11+ goal contributions. This season, Doku has the most Premier League goal contributions (4) in City’s squad after Erling Haaland (14) and Bernardo Silva (5), he’s their third-highest-rated FotMob player (7.42) after Haaland (7.62) and Mateo Kovačić (7.42), and he’s completing 5.8 successful dribbles per 90, nearly double the amount of City’s next-best dribbler – Sávinho (3.3). Despite this, Doku has struggled to cement a starting spot in attack, with five of his 11 appearances coming from the bench. Rather than giving him a consistent run in the team, Guardiola has often preferred to bring him on against tired legs.

*Successful dribbles per 90, Premier League 2024/25*

Guardiola has achieved an unprecedented domestic dynasty in Manchester thanks to an unyielding dedication to controlled, possession-heavy football, but as a result, he’s shifted away from traditional wingers in favor of players who can retain possession and avoid costly giveaways. It’s death by a thousand passes as opposed to one mazy individual dribble, and it’s why central midfielders like Rico Lewis and Matheus Nunes have regularly gotten the nod ahead of Doku. Nonetheless, it’s all gone a bit stale over the past two months. The wingers have cut an isolated figure and failed to provide a secondary goal-scoring outlet to alleviate the burden placed on Haaland’s shoulders, and as a result, opponents have been able to foil City’s attacking gameplan and put them under severe pressure at the back. However, having a traditional winger like Doku in the team could help rectify this.

At 22 years of age, Jérémy Doku is still an enigmatic character whose end product can flatter to deceive and who gives away possession on a far-too-regular basis, second only to Sávinho and Kevin De Bruyne in City’s squad, but on his day, he can turn his fullback inside out with his swift change of direction and scintillating ball-carrying skills and add some pace and panache to his team’s attacking play. Doku has started just one of his last four available Premier League matches for City, which saw him score a goal and assist vs. Nottingham Forest: the other three saw him come off the bench and witness yet another stalemate or defeat.

The last time City played United (excluding the preseason Community Shield), Doku came on at halftime and managed to pull one back for City in the final minutes, but it was too little too late as United prevailed 2-1 in the FA Cup Final. Guardiola cannot afford to make the same mistake twice: if City are to turn around their wretched run of form on Sunday, he has to unleash Doku from the shackles of super-sub status and give him a chance to impact the game from the opening whistle.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow all the action from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Barcelona look to extend LaLiga advantage against Leganes

LaLiga leaders Barcelona have been through a recent run which leaves top spot out of their own hands for now, with just one win in five allowing Real Madrid back into the hunt – they do remain one point clear due to Madrid’s draw last night, but Hansi Flick’s side know their rivals still have a game in hand.

By Karl Matchett

All Barca can do for now is continue trying to take maximum points in their own fixtures, with a home match against relegation-threatened Leganés surely a perfect opportunity to rebuild a winning run.

Leganés have been in the second tier for the past four years so there’s not much recent head to head form to speak of, promoted last term after winning La Segunda, but in their squad there remain a handful of notable players including former Schalke star Matija Nastasić and a link to their weekend hosts in forward Munir El Haddadi. The Moroccan left Barca in 2019 after breaking through as a youngster, and while it hasn’t perhaps gone to plan in his career as early expectations suggested, he remains an experienced attacker in the top flight with perhaps a point to prove.

Recent form

After a magnificent start, Flick’s side have taken a hit in league form of late, though a late win at Dortmund in Europe this week was a significant boost. A shock home defeat to Las Palmas only a fortnight ago shows they are not the finished product though and there remains scope for improvement.

As for Leganés, they’ve only won three all season in the top flight and those have all come at home – yet on the road it’s only three defeats in eight, as they prove the draw masters of LaLiga. All the same, they sit 17th after 16 games, with two teams below them having matches in hand. It’s another tough weekend in a tough overall campaign, with goalscoring a particular trouble for them so far.

Team news

Barcelona remain without goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen, defender Andreas Christensen, midfielder Marc Bernal and winger Ansu Fati. Raphinha took a knock against Dortmund but could play anyway, as Flick looks to get his team back to winning ways on the domestic front.

Valentin Rosier is absent through suspension for Leganés, while Dani Raba and Enric Franquesa are out injured.

Player to watch

No need to overthink this one – Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal have expectation on them, especially if Raphinha misses out, but it’s a guarantee of goals they need to win the game. Robert Lewandowski already has 16 LaLiga goals this term from an xG of 15; that’s averaging out at better than a goal per 90 minutes, 3.6 shots per 90 and very nearly 2.0 per 90 on target. The Polish attacker is playing a more refined, restricted game under Flick and it’s keeping him in the most dangerous areas of the pitch more often – and he’s coming up with the goods to justify his place and his salary. Keep feeding him chances and Barcelona will more likely than not stay top.

Prediction

We’ll go with a home victory with room to spare. Barcelona 3 Leganés 0.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Chelsea and Brentford clash in West London

After securing an impressive comeback win at Tottenham last Sunday, the debate around Chelsea’s place in the title race has raged back and forth and after also extending their perfect Conference League run on Thursday, the Blues will now look to extend their good form against local rivals Brentford.

By Dan Tracey

The Bees have been almost perfect when it comes to this season’s league outings at the GTech Community Stadium but Thomas Frank’s side have been largely forgettable on the road. It’s a conundrum we looked at in detail earlier in the week – in an article you can read here.

*Brentford’s contrasting home and away form*

The Form Guide

Enzo Maresca’s side return to Stamford Bridge having won their last six matches in all competitions and unbeaten in their last nine using the same criteria. Not since their Carabao Cup defeat at Newcastle in October have the Blues been second best when the final whistle blows.

As for opponents Brentford, this season they are a team that Jekyll and Hyde would be most proud of. The Bees have collected an impressive 22 league points from the 24 available at home but have picked up just a single point from the 21 offered on their travels.

Who Are The Key Players

This encounter could well be won by whose strike partnership performs best on the day. The visitors will have to be wary of the 19 league goals that Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson have scored between them this season.

But by comparison, the combined 18 league goals that Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbuemo have bagged should not be overlooked either and although there were fears that Brentford would decline when Ivan Toney cashed in his chips to move to Saudi Arabia, his two former teammates have more than picked up the slack.

Who’s in and who’s out?

After a busy week both home and abroad, Chelsea manager Maresca will ring the changes. Not only because of Pedro Neto’s one-game suspension for five bookings but also due to fitness doubts surrounding the midfield pair of Enzo Fernández and Roméo Lavia.

Brentford will monitor the fitness of Vitaly Janelt before they make the short trip across the capital but he is likely to appear. The same cannot be said for teammate Mathias Jensen who suffered a hamstring injury at the start of the month and is not expected to be fit for this one.

Prediction

Although Chelsea have had to cross continents with their trip to Kazakhstan this week, the additional time in the air should not hamper their bid to beat Brentford on Sunday – especially when you consider just how poor the Bees have been away from home this season.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: United meet City in the Manchester derby

The Etihad Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Manchester United in recent times. Indeed, the Red Devils haven’t won at the home of Manchester City since March 2021.

By Graham Ruthven

Sunday’s match, however, presents United with an opportunity to end their winless away run in the derby with City in bad shape.

Pep Guardiola is currently enduring his worst run of form as Manchester City manager. The Premier League champions have lost seven of their last 10 games in all competitions, winning just one. Incredibly, City have conceded more goals since the start of November than any other team in Europe’s Big Five leagues.

Manchester United have also endured their own struggles of late as Rúben Amorim instills his ideas on a team that lacked an identity under Erik ten Hag. However, Thursday’s comeback win over Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League hinted at a group of players that is starting to fight under their new manager.

Sunday’s Manchester Derby will be one between two teams that have lost their way of late, placing additional significance on the outcome. A win for either side could be the catalyst for them to start a more positive run of form over the winter period.

Key players

Ordinarily, Erling Haaland would be pinpointed as Manchester City’s primary threat such is his standing as the best goalscorer of his generation. However, the Norwegian has scored just once in his last four league appearances and has cut an isolated figure as the English champions have struggled for positive results.

Kevin de Bruyne has started City’s last three matches and has been an important source of creativity in recent weeks. Jack Grealish could also play in central midfield as he did against Juventus.

At the back, Rúben Dias is expected to start in central defence. City need the Portugal international to steady a backline that has been extremely fragile over the last two months.

Manchester United will look to Bruno Fernandes as their creator-in-chief with Ramus Højlund entering Sunday’s match in the midst of a scoring run that has seen the Dane find the back of the net five times in his last four games.

Leny Yoro could start after making his first Premier League appearance in the defeat to Nottingham Forest with Amad Diallo likely to feature in the right wing back position having impressed in Amorim’s first few matches in charge.

Team news

Rodri remains sidelined with the Euro 2024 winner’s absence in the centre of the pitch still being keenly felt by Manchester City. They have nobody else who can do the job of the 28-year-old.

John Stones, Nathan Aké, Mateo Kovačić and Oscar Bobb are also expected to miss Sunday’s Manchester Derby with Phil Foden also a doubt after watching Wednesday’s defeat to Juventus as an unused substitute.

Rico Lewis will serve a one-match suspension after being sent off in last weekend’s 2-2 draw away to Crystal Palace, leaving Guardiola short of another option who can operate in defence and midfield.

Jonny Evans, Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelof will all miss Sunday’s trip to the Etihad Stadium for Manchester United, but Amorim will otherwise have a fully fit squad to choose from.

Prediction

With both defences somewhat depleted or adapting to new circumstances, we’re expecting goals at both ends. So let’s go with a high scoring draw; Manchester City 2-2 Manchester United.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Real visit Rayo as Madrid sides meet in LaLiga

Mid-table inconsistency against title favourites – only one way this goes, right? Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Madrid, 12th against potential table-toppers given the game in hand, isn’t generally one which stands out as a surprise result or banana skin for Carlo Ancelotti’s side – but even so maybe there’s pause for thought.

By Karl Matchett

Madrid have won just one of the last four LaLiga meetings between these teams, didn’t beat Rayo at all last term, and still have a host of big-name players out injured.

Stranger things have happened, but even so the odds will be stacked in Madrid’s favour, not the least of which is the scoring form of Jude Bellingham. The Englishman, pushed higher upfield of late once more, has netted in each of his last four games, while Kylian Mbappé has also scored in three of those. Rayo goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has the highest save percentage of all stoppers in LaLiga, with 76.6%; there’s a good chance they’ll need him in that kind of form on Saturday night.

Form guide

Rayo have been wildly unpredictable this term, winning five but losing six, conceding six in three straight defeats before keeping a clean sheet to win 1-0 against Valencia last time out. Finishing 12th would of course be a big positive for them after ending 17th last term, though as that came at the end of one win in six they’ll hope for more consistency – key word again – this time around.

Real Madrid won the title at a canter last year but are chasing Barcelona this term. However, four wins in the last five mean they’re just two points off top spot with a game in hand now, so maintaining pressure on Hansi Flick’s side is of paramount importance. Five wins in the last seven across all competitions have only seen them beaten by Liverpool in Europe and Athletic Club domestically, but they’ve been remarkably regular in beating middle of the road sides.

Team news

Raúl de Tomás and Pelayo Feráandez are the only absent faces for Rayo, but Real continue to be without David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy in a full potential defence. Eduardo Camavinga is also sidelined and Mbappé went off early in the midweek win at Atalanta, so will miss out here as a result.

Key player

It’s Bellingham for Real Madrid and not for the first time. The attacking midfielder has been able to regularly push on again over the past few matches, netting both from open play and the penalty spot. He has five league goals from an xG of 3.2, is in the 97th percentile for successful passes this season, 92nd for touches per 90 and 91st for duels won in his position. He’s an all-round force on and off the ball and now the goals are flowing again too.

Prediction

Real Madrid to get the win they need, but not without a struggle and this looks a game in which both teams get on the scoresheet in. Rayo 1 Real 2.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Arsenal face an Everton who may have turned a corner

Arsenal will host Everton at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon. The Gunners will be hoping to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table, while Sean Dyche’s side will be looking to build some momentum after an impressive victory last time out.

By Matt Smith

Arteta receives major injury boost

Mikel Arteta has confirmed ahead of the game against Everton that Gabriel Magalhães has been involved in first-team training and could be available to face the Toffees. The Brazilian defender has missed their last three matches in all competitions, but he could make his return on Saturday.

Riccardo Calafiori, who hasn’t played since the end of November, won’t be fit in time for this one.

Mr Reliable isn’t slowing down

Everton will have one huge mission on Saturday, and that’s to true and shut down Bukayo Saka. Many sides have attempted, and most have failed, with the England international producing a whopping 15 goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season.

His attacking production has been superb this season, and Arsenal are heavily relying on him in attack to produce. Saka sits top of the assists charts for the Gunners, with Declan Rice in second with just two. Set-pieces have been a key weapon for Arsenal this season, but they’re coming up against a side who are strong defensively.

Broja the secret weapon

Armando Broja, who signed for Everton on loan in the summer transfer window, has missed the majority of the season due to injury. Dyche confirmed this week that Broja would be ‘around it’ when it comes to a place in the starting XI, after making his return with a cameo against Wolves last week.

Broja played around 10 minutes vs Wolves, but it was an impressive cameo nonetheless, and he could be a bit of a secret weapon off the bench for Everton, who have no fresh injury concerns.

Everton have set the standard now

The Toffees secured an emphatic 4-0 victory over Wolves in the last Premier League game, despite scoring just 10 times in the previous 13 games before that. It was somewhat of an anomaly, but with all four goals coming from set pieces, it’s a sign that Dyche might be going back to basics.

*Big Chances Created, Premier League 2024/2025*

With just 24 big chances created this season, the lowest in the Premier League, Dyche needs to find a way of producing opportunities for his side, and he did just that against Wolves last time out.

Prediction

Everton’s only victories this season have come against Wolves, Ipswich, and Crystal Palace, who are 19^th, 18^th, and 17^th respectively. It’s been a campaign of minimal giant killings, while Arsenal are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.

The Gunners are also yet to lose at home, so it’s difficult to see past a straightforward victory for the London club. We’re going for a 3-1 win for Arteta’s side in this one.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Preview: Liverpool test themselves against in form Fulham

Liverpool host Fulham on Saturday afternoon looking to maintain their healthy lead the top of the Premier League. The game at Anfield has the potential to be a bit of a banana skin for the Reds though.

By Sam McGuire

The season so far

Arne Slot’s start to life as Liverpool manager has been near perfect.

The Reds have won 11 of their 14 Premier League games and currently have a four point lead at the top with a game in hand. The Merseysiders have a 100% record in the Champions League following their 1-0 win over Girona on Wednesday. They’re also into the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup.

Performances have been a little sluggish over recent outings though. A heavy schedule, combined with injuries to a number of players, have left Liverpool looking a little leggy. They weren’t at their best in the 3-3 draw with Newcastle United and struggled early on against LaLiga side Girona in midweek.

They can’t afford another uninspiring showing on Sunday. Not against a team like Fulham.

The Cottagers are 10th in the Premier League table but they are just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City.

Marco Silva’s side held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw last time out and have frustrated big sides this season. They drew with Spurs and had Manchester City on the ropes in a 3-2 loss. Fulham actually had an xG haul of 2.3 at the Etihad and, on another day, likely surprise the reigning champions in a shock upset.

They are one or two positive results away from being genuine challengers for a European spot. If they pick up a positive result at Anfield, momentum could be on their side heading into the busy festive period.

Previous Encounters

Fulham have claimed victory against the Reds in just one of their previous 14 encounters. That win arrived during Liverpool’s forgettable run in 2020/21, when Jürgen Klopp was having to navigate his way through the worst injury crisis of his managerial career.

Liverpool have won 10 of these 14 meetings. They have won four of the last five across all competitions against the Cottagers but it is worth noting that they have only kept one clean sheet in these games. Fulham always cause the Reds some problems. Expect them to do the same on Saturday.

Current form

Over the past five matches in the English top-flight, Liverpool have the joint-best record along with Chelsea, with 13 points from 15 on offer. The Reds have scored 12 and conceded six in these matches, with their impervious start to the campaign slowing down a little. They’re now giving up goals.

However, they’re still difficult to defeat. In fact, their last loss came back in September.

Fulham’s form has been decent over the past five league games. They rank sixth with eight points over this period and they have lost just one match.

The Injury situation

Liverpool are without Ibrahima Konaté, Conor Bradley and Kostas Tsimikas. Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa could return to the matchday squad though which would be a welcome boost for an attack solely reliant on Mohamed Salah for their goals at the minute.

Alisson made his first appearance since October in the 1-0 win over Girona and put in a Man of the Match performance for the Reds. That is a huge boost for Slot.

Fulham are without a number of key players. Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen, the club’s first choice centre-back pairing, are both missing. The former is suspended while the latter has a calf issue. Tom Cairney is suspended while Harrison Reed and Reiss Nelson both miss out through injury.

Prediction

It won’t be pretty but we think another Liverpool win is on the cards. With the cavalry potentially returning for the Reds, they have multiple ways to win matches and their attacking depth will be the difference on the day.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Premier League game with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Dec

2024

Do Wolves stick or twist with the transfer window approaching?

Monday night’s El Sackico, as it turned out, ended as a goalless draw.

By Ian King

The match between West Ham United and Wolves had been trailed as the end of the line for the losing manager – whether it might go to a penalty shootout in the event of a draw was not made clear! – but as things turned out West Ham won 2-1, and the grip upon the guillotine that’s been hanging over Julen Lopetegui this last couple of weeks tightened a little.

Confirmation came through the following morning that Loptegui’s counterpart Gary O’Neil had also received a reprieve, though for how long this might be remains up in the air. He’s been confirmed as being in charge for this Saturday’s match against Ipswich Town, but the result of that may yet determine whether he’s still there for the one after that.

The reasons for this uneasy state of detente seem clear. On one hand, Wolves have been terrible this season. Scoring goals hasn’t been the problem. They’ve scored 23 in 15 games, four more than fifth-placed Nottingham Forest. The problem has been just about everything else. They’ve conceded six against Chelsea, five against Brentford, and four against Bournemouth and Everton, which came in successive matches.

They’re entertainers, for sure. The total of 61 goals that have been scored in their 15 matches is the highest in the division. It’s just that Wolves have conceded 38 of them, and have only won twice. They’ve been in the relegation places for the whole season except for one week towards the end of last month when they won 4-1 at Fulham, and they’re currently in 19th place, below Ipswich on goal difference and above only Southampton.

But on the other hand, the decision to sack O’Neil would not necessarily be a straightforward one because of the time of year. For bigger clubs, the ability to simply step in and poach a manager from elsewhere means that the sack could come at any time of the year. Manchester United, for example, clearly already had Rúben Amorim targeted as the replacement before they offloaded Erik Ten Hag. Ultimately, they have the clout to be able to move in this way.

But things aren’t quite as simple as this for smaller clubs such as Wolves. If they’re to find the right man to properly take the club forward, they have to punch above their weight in terms of who they bring in and the middle of the season, when many of those readily available will be those already jettisoned by other clubs in free fall themselves, might not be the best time of year to pull the diamond from the rough that they need.

The performances of the other teams near the bottom of the table have been such that, despite having accumulated nine points from fifteen games, Wolves are still in touch near the bottom of the table, with only a four-point gap separating them from Crystal Palace and five from Leicester and Everton. But should they lose to Ipswich, that gap may start to look considerably trickier. With another critical match at Leicester on the 22 December, they could look very much on the ropes by Christmas should they not win at least one of these matches.

With a rush of matches to follow over the Christmas and New Year period and the transfer window reopening for a month on 1 January, the choice is to stick or twist. The noises to have come from Molineux seem to indicate that O’Neil is believed to still have the skill-set to make this work, that the team had a difficult start to the season and has had some horrible injury problems, and that the first-team squad is unbalanced, with a particular lack of cover in defence.

But it does all feel like something of a gamble, whether over a decision that they do make or one that they don’t. What if they stick with O’Neil through the January window, allow him to bring in the players that he wants, and then find that results don’t improve and that if they are to make that switch, the new incumbent will have to make do with the players that they inherit?

Wolves’ defeat at West Ham was fairly narrow. These were ultimately two not particularly good football teams, by the standards of the modern Premier League. There was one point at which the two teams gave possession to each other four or five times in four or five seconds, and the performances of both seemed nervy and uncertain, as though the weight of the speculation was having a physical effect.

But memories will stretch back further than this and Wolves’ performance in the 4-0 defeat at Everton on the previous Wednesday was one of the very worst by any team in this division so far this season. If it turns out that a failure to sack O’Neil turns out to be a mistake, history will likely judge that the morning after that game was the opportunity that could have been taken.

The fact that Wolves did not take that action at that time may be a tacit admission that there is a greater degree of responsibility to be shared, here. Can the relative decline of the club in recent times be pinned solely to the apparent loosening of ties with super-agent Jorge Mendes over the last couple of years? Because if that is the case, then perhaps it’s also the case that far bigger structural changes are needed behind the scenes at Molineux than can be carried out when the team is having to play a match every three days.

With the owners of the club having already stated that they want the playing side of the club to be sustainable, anyone taking the Wolves job would be aware there wouldn’t be much money available and a lot of work to do. Perhaps in that light, it’s not quite so surprising that Gary O’Neil remains in position at Wolves with the Christmas rush now fast approaching.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Dec

2024

Liverpool have two unreliable No. 9s – it’s no surprise they’re looking elsewhere

Arne Slot would be the first to admit that there are fewer problems in his early life at Liverpool than he anticipated, but there could be a growing concern over his frontmen.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

After 22 games – and 20 across the Premier League and Champions League – Slot‘s start at Liverpool can only be viewed as a success; top of both tables and into the Carabao Cup quarter-finals with only one loss so far.

But while Liverpool are comfortable at the summit both domestically and in Europe, they are primarily for their defensive efforts and not their output in attack.

Three teams – Chelsea (35), Brentford (31) and Tottenham (31) – have scored more goals in the Premier League, with the Reds equal with Arsenal on 29, while five teams – Barcelona (21), Dortmund (18), Bayern Munich (17), Atlético Madrid (14) and Feyenoord (14) – have netted more and two have matched their 13 in the Champions League.

Liverpool lead both tables by virtue of their remarkable ability to control games and deliver the killing blow when it matters. It is which distinguishes Slot’s approach from that of his predecessor, Jürgen Klopp.

However, it should also be noted that Liverpool are among the top five teams for big chances missed in both competitions: second in the Premier League with 35 (2.5 per game) and fifth in the Champions League with 13 (2.17 per game).

Both tallies are either equal to or more than their number of goals scored, though that speaks as much to the quality of chances they are creating as it does their failure to convert them, as they also rank first and fourth for shots on target per game in league and Europe respectively.

Slot will acknowledge that Liverpool can and should score more, but there is also an acceptance that his Liverpool is still a work in progress, and that they are on top despite this profligacy can only be a major positive.

That is where their two No. 9s come in.

Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez are, by Slot’s own admission, two very different strikers – and by the same token, their respective flaws are of a very different complexion.

“I think Diogo is a bit more a striker that can also go into the midfield and play as a false nine or a nine-and-a-half, where Darwin is more the target man, that finishes off a good attack,” the head coach explained in September.

Having two different strikers is no bad thing, but more often than not a manager will have a plan A and a plan B, and the start of the season showed that Jota is very much his plan A.

Núñez started only three of the first 11 games of the season – one in the league, one in Europe, one in the cup – while Jota started nine; in that time, Jota scored four goals and laid on two assists, with Núñez scoring one and assisting one.

The 11th of those games, the 2-1 win at home to Chelsea, saw the Portuguese forced off after half an hour with a rib injury as Núñez took over, fulfilling a surprise man-marking role on Cole Palmer in an unorthodox display which impressed Slot.

Jota has been sidelined since, sitting out of the last 11 games in a stark reminder of the worrying fragility of a player who has now missed 94 for club and country to nine different injuries in the past four-and-a-half seasons (almost 21 per season on average).

Of those 11 most recent Jota-less games, Núñez has started eight and come off the bench in the remaining three, but the Uruguayan has managed just two goals in that time – both, to his credit, match-winners.

Núñez is a player of fleeting brilliance – and in fact, as recently as October this writer discussed two performances in four days that showed Núñez could fit in under Slot – but the weight of evidence is that this may never be enough.

He is, after all, Liverpool’s club-record signing at £85 million and one who, almost midway through his third season, is in no way assured of a starting place up front.

That largely appears to be due to Slot preferring a different type of striker, with the Dutchman even turning to a natural left winger in Luis Díaz as his deep-dropping No. 9 in the victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Manchester City.

Díaz scored a hat-trick against Leverkusen – two as a striker and one after moving back to the left – with Slot making it clear afterwards why he had been preferred to Núñez.

“I think [Jonathan] Tah is one of the best defenders in Germany – maybe the best defender in Germany – and he likes maybe to play more against a target man, someone who is there in the middle,” he explained.

“We chose to play Lucho more from the left or the midfield and maybe surprise him afterwards with runs in behind – not only him, but in general.”

Again, in two big-game scenarios, Slot opted for a nine-and-a-half rather than a target man, with this a big indicator of how he plans to build moving forwards.

And with both Jota and Núñez proving consistently unreliable for very different reasons, it should come as no surprise that reports are beginning to emerge over Liverpool assessing the market for a new centre-forward.

While Jayden Danns, 18, offers an intriguing long-term project in the academy, Brighton’s João Pedro, 23, has been linked by Brazilian outlet UOL and very much fits the brief as a nine-and-a-half, while Wolves’ Matheus Cunha, 25, is another who suits the mould.

*Pedro vs. Cunha stats comparison, Premier League 2024/25*

Two Brazilians who are comfortable leading the line but also more than willing to drop deep and link play while allowing their fellow forwards to flourish, there are many similarities with a former Liverpool striker who would have been Slot’s dream: Roberto Firmino.

Both boast Premier League experience but are yet to break through to elite level, which is often the market Liverpool have shopped in under Fenway Sports Group, reinforced again this year by the reappointment of Michael Edwards as CEO of football and the hiring of Richard Hughes as sporting director.

When Edwards announced his departure from the club after five years as sporting director in 2021, he underlined his own admiration for Firmino, saying: “One of the other questions I always get asked is ‘who was/is your favourite player?’…all I will say is my dog is called Bobby.”

His and Slot’s vision for the heart of Liverpool’s attack seems to align, and with neither Jota or Núñez proving the perfect fit up front so far, it is easy to see the Reds seeking out Bobby mk. II in 2025.

(Images from IMAGO)

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