Mid-table inconsistency against title favourites – only one way this goes, right? Rayo Vallecano hosting Real Madrid, 12th against potential table-toppers given the game in hand, isn’t generally one which stands out as a surprise result or banana skin for Carlo Ancelotti’s side – but even so maybe there’s pause for thought.
Madrid have won just one of the last four LaLiga meetings between these teams, didn’t beat Rayo at all last term, and still have a host of big-name players out injured.
Stranger things have happened, but even so the odds will be stacked in Madrid’s favour, not the least of which is the scoring form of Jude Bellingham. The Englishman, pushed higher upfield of late once more, has netted in each of his last four games, while Kylian Mbappé has also scored in three of those. Rayo goalkeeper Augusto Batalla has the highest save percentage of all stoppers in LaLiga, with 76.6%; there’s a good chance they’ll need him in that kind of form on Saturday night.
Form guide
Rayo have been wildly unpredictable this term, winning five but losing six, conceding six in three straight defeats before keeping a clean sheet to win 1-0 against Valencia last time out. Finishing 12th would of course be a big positive for them after ending 17th last term, though as that came at the end of one win in six they’ll hope for more consistency – key word again – this time around.
Real Madrid won the title at a canter last year but are chasing Barcelona this term. However, four wins in the last five mean they’re just two points off top spot with a game in hand now, so maintaining pressure on Hansi Flick’s side is of paramount importance. Five wins in the last seven across all competitions have only seen them beaten by Liverpool in Europe and Athletic Club domestically, but they’ve been remarkably regular in beating middle of the road sides.
Team news
Raúl de Tomás and Pelayo Feráandez are the only absent faces for Rayo, but Real continue to be without David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and Ferland Mendy in a full potential defence. Eduardo Camavinga is also sidelined and Mbappé went off early in the midweek win at Atalanta, so will miss out here as a result.
Key player
It’s Bellingham for Real Madrid and not for the first time. The attacking midfielder has been able to regularly push on again over the past few matches, netting both from open play and the penalty spot. He has five league goals from an xG of 3.2, is in the 97th percentile for successful passes this season, 92nd for touches per 90 and 91st for duels won in his position. He’s an all-round force on and off the ball and now the goals are flowing again too.
Bellingham’s last four games
Prediction
Real Madrid to get the win they need, but not without a struggle and this looks a game in which both teams get on the scoresheet in. Rayo 1 Real 2.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Arsenal will host Everton at the Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon. The Gunners will be hoping to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table, while Sean Dyche’s side will be looking to build some momentum after an impressive victory last time out.
Mikel Arteta has confirmed ahead of the game against Everton that Gabriel Magalhães has been involved in first-team training and could be available to face the Toffees. The Brazilian defender has missed their last three matches in all competitions, but he could make his return on Saturday.
Riccardo Calafiori, who hasn’t played since the end of November, won’t be fit in time for this one.
Mr Reliable isn’t slowing down
Everton will have one huge mission on Saturday, and that’s to true and shut down Bukayo Saka. Many sides have attempted, and most have failed, with the England international producing a whopping 15 goals and assists combined in the Premier League this season.
His attacking production has been superb this season, and Arsenal are heavily relying on him in attack to produce. Saka sits top of the assists charts for the Gunners, with Declan Rice in second with just two. Set-pieces have been a key weapon for Arsenal this season, but they’re coming up against a side who are strong defensively.
Broja the secret weapon
Armando Broja, who signed for Everton on loan in the summer transfer window, has missed the majority of the season due to injury. Dyche confirmed this week that Broja would be ‘around it’ when it comes to a place in the starting XI, after making his return with a cameo against Wolves last week.
Broja played around 10 minutes vs Wolves, but it was an impressive cameo nonetheless, and he could be a bit of a secret weapon off the bench for Everton, who have no fresh injury concerns.
Everton have set the standard now
The Toffees secured an emphatic 4-0 victory over Wolves in the last Premier League game, despite scoring just 10 times in the previous 13 games before that. It was somewhat of an anomaly, but with all four goals coming from set pieces, it’s a sign that Dyche might be going back to basics.
Big Chances Created, Premier League 2024/2025
With just 24 big chances created this season, the lowest in the Premier League, Dyche needs to find a way of producing opportunities for his side, and he did just that against Wolves last time out.
Prediction
Everton’s only victories this season have come against Wolves, Ipswich, and Crystal Palace, who are 19th, 18th, and 17th respectively. It’s been a campaign of minimal giant killings, while Arsenal are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.
The Gunners are also yet to lose at home, so it’s difficult to see past a straightforward victory for the London club. We’re going for a 3-1 win for Arteta’s side in this one.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Liverpool host Fulham on Saturday afternoon looking to maintain their healthy lead the top of the Premier League. The game at Anfield has the potential to be a bit of a banana skin for the Reds though.
Arne Slot’s start to life as Liverpool manager has been near perfect.
The Reds have won 11 of their 14 Premier League games and currently have a four point lead at the top with a game in hand. The Merseysiders have a 100% record in the Champions League following their 1-0 win over Girona on Wednesday. They’re also into the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup.
Performances have been a little sluggish over recent outings though. A heavy schedule, combined with injuries to a number of players, have left Liverpool looking a little leggy. They weren’t at their best in the 3-3 draw with Newcastle United and struggled early on against LaLiga side Girona in midweek.
They can’t afford another uninspiring showing on Sunday. Not against a team like Fulham.
The Cottagers are 10th in the Premier League table but they are just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City.
Marco Silva’s side held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw last time out and have frustrated big sides this season. They drew with Spurs and had Manchester City on the ropes in a 3-2 loss. Fulham actually had an xG haul of 2.3 at the Etihad and, on another day, likely surprise the reigning champions in a shock upset.
They are one or two positive results away from being genuine challengers for a European spot. If they pick up a positive result at Anfield, momentum could be on their side heading into the busy festive period.
Previous Encounters
Fulham have claimed victory against the Reds in just one of their previous 14 encounters. That win arrived during Liverpool’s forgettable run in 2020/21, when Jürgen Klopp was having to navigate his way through the worst injury crisis of his managerial career.
Liverpool have won 10 of these 14 meetings. They have won four of the last five across all competitions against the Cottagers but it is worth noting that they have only kept one clean sheet in these games. Fulham always cause the Reds some problems. Expect them to do the same on Saturday.
Current form
Over the past five matches in the English top-flight, Liverpool have the joint-best record along with Chelsea, with 13 points from 15 on offer. The Reds have scored 12 and conceded six in these matches, with their impervious start to the campaign slowing down a little. They’re now giving up goals.
However, they’re still difficult to defeat. In fact, their last loss came back in September.
Fulham’s form has been decent over the past five league games. They rank sixth with eight points over this period and they have lost just one match.
The Injury situation
Liverpool are without Ibrahima Konaté, Conor Bradley and Kostas Tsimikas. Diogo Jota and Federico Chiesa could return to the matchday squad though which would be a welcome boost for an attack solely reliant on Mohamed Salah for their goals at the minute.
Alisson made his first appearance since October in the 1-0 win over Girona and put in a Man of the Match performance for the Reds. That is a huge boost for Slot.
Fulham are without a number of key players. Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen, the club’s first choice centre-back pairing, are both missing. The former is suspended while the latter has a calf issue. Tom Cairney is suspended while Harrison Reed and Reiss Nelson both miss out through injury.
Prediction
It won’t be pretty but we think another Liverpool win is on the cards. With the cavalry potentially returning for the Reds, they have multiple ways to win matches and their attacking depth will be the difference on the day.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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The match between West Ham United and Wolves had been trailed as the end of the line for the losing manager – whether it might go to a penalty shootout in the event of a draw was not made clear! – but as things turned out West Ham won 2-1, and the grip upon the guillotine that’s been hanging over Julen Lopetegui this last couple of weeks tightened a little.
Confirmation came through the following morning that Loptegui’s counterpart Gary O’Neil had also received a reprieve, though for how long this might be remains up in the air. He’s been confirmed as being in charge for this Saturday’s match against Ipswich Town, but the result of that may yet determine whether he’s still there for the one after that.
The reasons for this uneasy state of detente seem clear. On one hand, Wolves have been terrible this season. Scoring goals hasn’t been the problem. They’ve scored 23 in 15 games, four more than fifth-placed Nottingham Forest. The problem has been just about everything else. They’ve conceded six against Chelsea, five against Brentford, and four against Bournemouth and Everton, which came in successive matches.
They’re entertainers, for sure. The total of 61 goals that have been scored in their 15 matches is the highest in the division. It’s just that Wolves have conceded 38 of them, and have only won twice. They’ve been in the relegation places for the whole season except for one week towards the end of last month when they won 4-1 at Fulham, and they’re currently in 19th place, below Ipswich on goal difference and above only Southampton.
But on the other hand, the decision to sack O’Neil would not necessarily be a straightforward one because of the time of year. For bigger clubs, the ability to simply step in and poach a manager from elsewhere means that the sack could come at any time of the year. Manchester United, for example, clearly already had Rúben Amorim targeted as the replacement before they offloaded Erik Ten Hag. Ultimately, they have the clout to be able to move in this way.
But things aren’t quite as simple as this for smaller clubs such as Wolves. If they’re to find the right man to properly take the club forward, they have to punch above their weight in terms of who they bring in and the middle of the season, when many of those readily available will be those already jettisoned by other clubs in free fall themselves, might not be the best time of year to pull the diamond from the rough that they need.
The performances of the other teams near the bottom of the table have been such that, despite having accumulated nine points from fifteen games, Wolves are still in touch near the bottom of the table, with only a four-point gap separating them from Crystal Palace and five from Leicester and Everton. But should they lose to Ipswich, that gap may start to look considerably trickier. With another critical match at Leicester on the 22 December, they could look very much on the ropes by Christmas should they not win at least one of these matches.
With a rush of matches to follow over the Christmas and New Year period and the transfer window reopening for a month on 1 January, the choice is to stick or twist. The noises to have come from Molineux seem to indicate that O’Neil is believed to still have the skill-set to make this work, that the team had a difficult start to the season and has had some horrible injury problems, and that the first-team squad is unbalanced, with a particular lack of cover in defence.
But it does all feel like something of a gamble, whether over a decision that they do make or one that they don’t. What if they stick with O’Neil through the January window, allow him to bring in the players that he wants, and then find that results don’t improve and that if they are to make that switch, the new incumbent will have to make do with the players that they inherit?
Wolves’ defeat at West Ham was fairly narrow. These were ultimately two not particularly good football teams, by the standards of the modern Premier League. There was one point at which the two teams gave possession to each other four or five times in four or five seconds, and the performances of both seemed nervy and uncertain, as though the weight of the speculation was having a physical effect.
But memories will stretch back further than this and Wolves’ performance in the 4-0 defeat at Everton on the previous Wednesday was one of the very worst by any team in this division so far this season. If it turns out that a failure to sack O’Neil turns out to be a mistake, history will likely judge that the morning after that game was the opportunity that could have been taken.
The fact that Wolves did not take that action at that time may be a tacit admission that there is a greater degree of responsibility to be shared, here. Can the relative decline of the club in recent times be pinned solely to the apparent loosening of ties with super-agent Jorge Mendes over the last couple of years? Because if that is the case, then perhaps it’s also the case that far bigger structural changes are needed behind the scenes at Molineux than can be carried out when the team is having to play a match every three days.
With the owners of the club having already stated that they want the playing side of the club to be sustainable, anyone taking the Wolves job would be aware there wouldn’t be much money available and a lot of work to do. Perhaps in that light, it’s not quite so surprising that Gary O’Neil remains in position at Wolves with the Christmas rush now fast approaching.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Arne Slot would be the first to admit that there are fewer problems in his early life at Liverpool than he anticipated, but there could be a growing concern over his frontmen.
After 22 games – and 20 across the Premier League and Champions League – Slot‘s start at Liverpool can only be viewed as a success; top of both tables and into the Carabao Cup quarter-finals with only one loss so far.
But while Liverpool are comfortable at the summit both domestically and in Europe, they are primarily for their defensive efforts and not their output in attack.
Three teams – Chelsea (35), Brentford (31) and Tottenham (31) – have scored more goals in the Premier League, with the Reds equal with Arsenal on 29, while five teams – Barcelona (21), Dortmund (18), Bayern Munich (17), Atlético Madrid (14) and Feyenoord (14) – have netted more and two have matched their 13 in the Champions League.
Liverpool lead both tables by virtue of their remarkable ability to control games and deliver the killing blow when it matters. It is which distinguishes Slot’s approach from that of his predecessor, Jürgen Klopp.
However, it should also be noted that Liverpool are among the top five teams for big chances missed in both competitions: second in the Premier League with 35 (2.5 per game) and fifth in the Champions League with 13 (2.17 per game).
Both tallies are either equal to or more than their number of goals scored, though that speaks as much to the quality of chances they are creating as it does their failure to convert them, as they also rank first and fourth for shots on target per game in league and Europe respectively.
Slot will acknowledge that Liverpool can and should score more, but there is also an acceptance that his Liverpool is still a work in progress, and that they are on top despite this profligacy can only be a major positive.
That is where their two No. 9s come in.
Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez are, by Slot’s own admission, two very different strikers – and by the same token, their respective flaws are of a very different complexion.
“I think Diogo is a bit more a striker that can also go into the midfield and play as a false nine or a nine-and-a-half, where Darwin is more the target man, that finishes off a good attack,” the head coach explained in September.
Having two different strikers is no bad thing, but more often than not a manager will have a plan A and a plan B, and the start of the season showed that Jota is very much his plan A.
Jota player traits
Núñez started only three of the first 11 games of the season – one in the league, one in Europe, one in the cup – while Jota started nine; in that time, Jota scored four goals and laid on two assists, with Núñez scoring one and assisting one.
The 11th of those games, the 2-1 win at home to Chelsea, saw the Portuguese forced off after half an hour with a rib injury as Núñez took over, fulfilling a surprise man-marking role on Cole Palmer in an unorthodox display which impressed Slot.
Jota has been sidelined since, sitting out of the last 11 games in a stark reminder of the worrying fragility of a player who has now missed 94 for club and country to nine different injuries in the past four-and-a-half seasons (almost 21 per season on average).
Of those 11 most recent Jota-less games, Núñez has started eight and come off the bench in the remaining three, but the Uruguayan has managed just two goals in that time – both, to his credit, match-winners.
Núñez player traits
Núñez is a player of fleeting brilliance – and in fact, as recently as October this writer discussed two performances in four days that showed Núñez could fit in under Slot – but the weight of evidence is that this may never be enough.
He is, after all, Liverpool’s club-record signing at £85 million and one who, almost midway through his third season, is in no way assured of a starting place up front.
That largely appears to be due to Slot preferring a different type of striker, with the Dutchman even turning to a natural left winger in Luis Díaz as his deep-dropping No. 9 in the victories over Bayer Leverkusen and Manchester City.
Díaz scored a hat-trick against Leverkusen – two as a striker and one after moving back to the left – with Slot making it clear afterwards why he had been preferred to Núñez.
“I think [Jonathan] Tah is one of the best defenders in Germany – maybe the best defender in Germany – and he likes maybe to play more against a target man, someone who is there in the middle,” he explained.
“We chose to play Lucho more from the left or the midfield and maybe surprise him afterwards with runs in behind – not only him, but in general.”
Again, in two big-game scenarios, Slot opted for a nine-and-a-half rather than a target man, with this a big indicator of how he plans to build moving forwards.
And with both Jota and Núñez proving consistently unreliable for very different reasons, it should come as no surprise that reports are beginning to emerge over Liverpool assessing the market for a new centre-forward.
While Jayden Danns, 18, offers an intriguing long-term project in the academy, Brighton’s João Pedro, 23, has been linked by Brazilian outlet UOL and very much fits the brief as a nine-and-a-half, while Wolves’ Matheus Cunha, 25, is another who suits the mould.
Pedro vs. Cunha stats comparison, Premier League 2024/25
Two Brazilians who are comfortable leading the line but also more than willing to drop deep and link play while allowing their fellow forwards to flourish, there are many similarities with a former Liverpool striker who would have been Slot’s dream: Roberto Firmino.
Both boast Premier League experience but are yet to break through to elite level, which is often the market Liverpool have shopped in under Fenway Sports Group, reinforced again this year by the reappointment of Michael Edwards as CEO of football and the hiring of Richard Hughes as sporting director.
When Edwards announced his departure from the club after five years as sporting director in 2021, he underlined his own admiration for Firmino, saying: “One of the other questions I always get asked is ‘who was/is your favourite player?’…all I will say is my dog is called Bobby.”
His and Slot’s vision for the heart of Liverpool’s attack seems to align, and with neither Jota or Núñez proving the perfect fit up front so far, it is easy to see the Reds seeking out Bobby mk. II in 2025.
(Images from IMAGO)
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We’re entering that point of the Premier League campaign. Every single match now feels pivotal in the grand scheme of things. While there’s still a lot of football to be played, dropped points here can feel so damaging. So, with this in mind, what is there to look forward to this weekend?
Liverpool have dropped points in just three of their 14 Premier League matches this term. The Reds are four points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand over their rivals following the postponement of the Merseyside derby.
Arne Slot’s side have the second best home record in the English top flight having taken 18 points from a possible 21. They have scored 13 goals at Anfield and conceded on just three occasions.
The Cottagers have been one of the surprise packages in the Premier League this term. Marco Silva’s men are 10th in the Premier League, just two points behind fifth-placed Nottingham Forest and four behind fourth-placed Manchester City.
Fulham have won just one of their previous 14 matches against Liverpool across all competitions but do come into this match in good form. Their points haul of 23 is matched by their Expected Points total, pointing to the fact performances have matched results.
They have also done well against big sides this term. They’ve drawn games against Spurs and Arsenal and they picked up three points against an impressive Brighton side. The Cottagers lost 3-2 to reigning champions Manchester City but posted an Expected Goals total of 2.3 in that defeat. They deserved to win.
Silva possesses players who can cause teams trouble and Raúl Jiménez looks back to his best. And if Liverpool aren’t at their best, they weren’t in mid-week against Girona in the Champions League, an upset could be on the cards.
Overperformers vs Underperformers
Ahead of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, a lot of people tipped Aston Villa for another top four push after completing some good business during the summer transfer window. A lot of people, myself included, also thought Nottingham Forest would be involved in a relegation battle.
Yet here we are in December with Forest sat above Villa in the table. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are in fifth while Unai Emery has his team sitting in sixth. They’re level on points but the narratives around both teams could not be any more different.
Forest are defying the odds. Villa are struggling to live up to expectations.
The Villans make the trip to the City Ground this weekend looking to make it three wins on the bounce in the Premier League after a difficult period. Across their last five games in the English top flight, they have picked up just seven points. Forest have tailed off a little too, claiming just six points during the same period. However, they did beat Manchester United at Old Trafford last time out and they have upped their game against the more traditional top sides, beating Liverpool and drawing with Chelsea.
It is worth noting that Forest’s home form hasn’t been great – they rank 12th with 11 points from 21 on offer – while Villa are decent enough on their travels, winning three from seven matches.
For both teams it is a big game in the grand scheme of things.
The Manchester derby
Both teams are in dire need of a reaction and a performance.
Few would’ve expected to be saying this about Manchester City in December but the reigning champions need a big showing against their neighbours. There’s more at stake than just three points and local pride.
City have won one of their last 10 across all competitions and fell to defeat again in midweek as Juventus claimed a 2-0 win in the Champions League. By the time kick off comes around, the reigning champions could be five points behind Arsenal and 11 points off of leaders Liverpool.
The champions are in freefall. A win here in the Manchester derby could be the catapult needed to get things going again. A loss could end their title hopes before the turn of the New Year. City have the quality but they’re lacking in confidence.
United need something. They need anything to really kickstart the Rúben Amorim era.
The 4-0 win over Everton was a false dawn. They lost 3-2 to Nottingham Forest at Old Trafford in their last game in the league and have suffered back-to-back losses in the Premier League under the Portuguese tactician. If results don’t go their way this weekend, they finish in 14th place.
The result here could be seismic in Manchester and across the Premier League.
The Saints are bottom of the Premier League and have just one win to their name in the English top-flight this term. They have conceded 31 goals and found the back of the net on just 11 occasions. Russell Martin’s job as manager is under threat with the one-time Swansea boss reluctant to switch things up in a bid to extend Southampton’s stint in the top tier.
His team are regularly playing into trouble and making life difficult for themselves.
Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher believes the Aussie tactician is too stubborn.
“I wake up every morning hoping the sun is shining, so I can put some shorts and a T-shirt on but if it’s raining, you put your coat on.”
Spurs held a 2-0 lead over Chelsea last time out but imploded to lose 4-3. The result left them 11th in the Premier League and they lost Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero to injuries. The pressure is mounting on the former Celtic boss and defeat here could spell the end for him.
Likewise, though, a heavy loss for Southampton could spell the end for Martin.
The stakes are high.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Thomas Frank’s men have been almost perfect at home this term, winning seven of their eight matches at the Gtech Community Stadium. The Bees have racked up 22 points from the 24 on offer, matching their haul from last season on home turf with 11 matches still to play. In fact, they already have more wins than they managed during the 2023/24 campaign (five).
Brentford home and away points breakdown
They find themselves in ninth position in the English top-flight, just four points behind fourth-placed Manchester City, purely because of their home form. Remarkably, 96% of their points haul this term has come from home fixtures. In their seven away games, Brentford have picked up just a single point.
Like I said, they’re one of the Premier League’s greatest mysteries this season.
Brentford have the best home record. They are also the only team to have picked up 20 or more points in front of home fans. For context, table toppers Liverpool rank second on 18 points.
It is a deserved record too. Frank’s men have scored 26 goals from an Expected Goals total of 18. Tottenham are the only other team in the league to have scored 20 or more in the English top-flight.
Premier League home form table, 2024/25
The Bees are a little leaky defensively, conceding 14 goals from an Expected Goals Against total of 11. But their attack is bailing them out of trouble. The players Frank has at his disposal in the final third are strong enough to beat the majority of teams in the Premier League. Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo, the returning Igor Thiago, Fabio Carvalho, Kevin Schade, Keane Lewis-Potter and Mikel Damsgaard give Brentford some serious depth.
As things stand, Mbeumo and Wissa have both scored nine goals each in the Premier League while Schade is on four. You’d be forgiven for forgetting that Brentford lost Ivan Toney in the summer.
Brentford top scorers, Premier League 2024/25
So, their incredible home numbers are largely due to their remarkable attack.
Brentford have scored three or more in six of their eight matches at the Gtech. They have four or more in four of their last five home fixtures. They hit Wolves for five and found the back of the net on four occasions in games against Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Newcastle United
Home has been a safe haven for the Bees. But they’ve been kind of fortunate with who they have faced this term. They have, for example, played four of the bottom five. And this has, no doubt, helped massively. Momentum is on their side and the fixtures have fallen favourably.
Last season, Brentford started the campaign hosting Spurs. They never really had a good run of fixtures at home without one of the clubs pushing for a top six visiting the Gtech. This could be why their record wasn’t great.
Frank and his team ranked 16th last season for home form, winning just five of their 19 matches. They racked up 22 points and conceded more goals (34) than they scored (29). The fixture list really does impact results, form and momentum.
Away from home, it has been a different story for the Bees this season.
The Bees also have the joint-worst away record, along with bottom of the table Southampton.
They have played seven and won zero games. They have suffered six defeats, scored just five goals and have conceded 14. Again, the numbers back these results up. Brentford have an xG of 5.8 and have an xG Against total of 14.4.
Last season, their away form wasn’t great either. They won five of their 19 matches and picked up 17 points on the road.
Again, though, this could be tied to fixtures. Brentford have already faced league leaders Liverpool, reigning champions Manchester City and European hopefuls Spurs and Aston Villa on their travels. They have also made the trip to Old Trafford. The Red Devils aren’t the team they once were but it is still quite a daunting start to the season, isn’t it?
Anfield, the Etihad, Villa Park, Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur stadium in five of their seven away ties.
On the surface, Brentford’s form looks to be a bit of a mystery. In reality, though, they’ve had good luck at home and no luck on their travels. This could soon be reversed. On the horizon, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Spurs, Chelsea and Villa soon make the trip to the Gtech while the Bees travel to St Mary’s, the King Power and Selhurst Park. Their home form could tail off while their away form improves.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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A lot can happen in two seasons in football, but even so Sevilla are testing the limits of elasticity after a hard and fast fall, having won the Europa League – again – only 18 months ago.
In truth, that victory perhaps masked the start of their demise, as they ended a run of three top-four finishes in a row to end 12th in LaLiga that campaign, and it has only gotten worse since then. Sevilla won five European trophies in the space of a decade and were often in the Champions League knockout stages in the seasons in between; this year, an away day at Las Palmas is as exciting a long-haul trip as they’ll be having, and they didn’t even win that.
So, for the uninitiated, let’s rewind a little. Sevilla, once the poster club for clever transfer work and the signpost for over-achievement in European football, finished between third and seventh in LaLiga in 17 out of 19 seasons, from 03/04 through to 21/22. They also won the Copa del Rey twice and the Uefa Cup twice more in that earlier period, highlighting the success and golden formula they’d found.
Perhaps, then, it was natural that such sustained ability to challenge couldn’t go on indefinitely, but even so, this has been a thump of a landing. After ending 12th in 22/23, last season they finished 14th. This term it could get even worse. They are 13th now, with just one away win all season, and while home form has been somewhat better, they’ve had a much easier run of games at the Sánchez Pizjuán – the top four all head to them in the second half of the year.
It isn’t that tricky to identify why they are performing poorly when watching them – often a muddled identity on the pitch, caught between pointless ball retention and defensive fragility – but the numbers offer a further clue. Sevilla rank fifth in LaLiga for average possession, for example, but 11th for shots on target, 12th for xG, 14th for big chances created. A shot conversion rate of 8.8% is also only better than four other teams in the division. At the other end, while not the be-all and end-all, an xG conceded tally of 21.7 is fairly poor, the eighth highest in LaLiga, but they’ve actually conceded more than that, with 23.
xG, LaLiga 2024/25
That’s as a team; individually it is similarly reflective of a side unable to translate possession into meaningful openings. Too few players create or take chances with any regularity, with the team heavily reliant on Dodi Lukebakio, who is top for goals, season xG, shots on target per 90, chances created and successful dribbles per 90, if we ignore bit-part performer Chidera Ejuke for the latter, with barely 500 minutes to his name.
And if all that wasn’t enough to make it difficult for García Pimienta’s side to be winning matches, five times this season they’ve made matters even worse by being shown red cards – no team in all of Europe’s top five leagues have had more so far this season. Confidence, tactical organisation and individual mistakes can all play a part across the season in underperformance and all three were arguably on show last time out in defeat at Atlético Madrid: 3-1 up with half an hour to play, Sevilla absolutely imploded, conceding the last in stoppage time to lose 4-3 and make it just one win in five.
It’s easy to try and pin the demise of the team on a single factor: the exit of Monchi, say. The sporting director was famed for his transfer work in his first spell at the club, but matters didn’t go well at Roma and after returning to Sevilla in 2019, it wasn’t much better. He left for Aston Villa in 2023 and the club’s dealings haven’t been stellar since then either – decision-making has been questionable at times and not enough big sales have been well reinvested. There was a time it seemed every player who left Sevilla had a big profit attached; that hasn’t happened of late. Yassine Bounou’s sale to Al Hilal brought in a chunk, certainly, and this past summer striker Youssef En Nesyri went to Fenerbahçe for €20m. But aside from those it has been loans, free transfers and low-cost deals departing the club, with mostly the same coming in. Perhaps Lukebakio, signed for around €10m 18 months ago, will buck that trend – but as noted, they’re highly reliant on him on the pitch right now.
There’s no easy turnaround for Sevilla, with financial constraints hitting many clubs in Spain, meaning selling players on is tougher – and it doesn’t look as though European football is on the horizon any time soon either. The club had a two-decade-long golden period, but the sport moves on quickly. Right now, Sevilla can only think about halting the slide.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.
Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.
Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.
*Don’t forget the FPL deadline for this round – make your transfers and sort your team out before 13:30 GMTon Saturday*
The Eye Test vs. The Stats
Enzo Fernández (5.0m) has performed really well recently. In his last five games he has three goals and three assists. Fernández was a player no one considered before the season started, so you may ask yourself why now? He is still playing as a midfielder, but drifting into offensive positions much more than he has previously in his Chelsea career. It seems like he almost becomes another No.10 when Chelsea are on the attack. And at 5m he seems very good value as a player who could act as the fifth midfielder in your fantasy team.
Next, let’s have a look at his stats next. Last season Enzo scored three and assisted two, which means he’s equalled last season’s tally already. His xG for this season stands at 1.55 and his xA is 2.41, which means he’s over performing in terms of his expected numbers. I wouldn’t buy Enzo if you had to rely on him every single week, but he is undoubtedly a very good additional option for your team.
Alexander Isak (8.6m) was a player I wrote about ahead of GW12. Since then he has registered 22 fantasy points and earned a 0.1m price rise. In one of the games he was also subbed off after just 22 minutes due to a slight knock. And with Newcastle due to play Leicester City and Ipswich Town in the near future, Isak still has a couple of good looking fixtures coming up.
Isak’s stats are still good, with 0.63 xGI (Expected Goal Involvements) per 90 in the Premier League. Leicester have conceded 4.64 xG in the two league games played under Ruud Van Nistelrooy so far so I’m expecting him to return in that fixture. Having said that, Isak is definitely a player I would target for my team if I had an obvious way into getting him in and I wouldn’t be too fussed even if his next few fixtures weren’t the best. I see him as long term hold as he has proven in the past that he can score against stronger opposition – Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool can tell you this season.
Isak shot map, Premier League 2024/25
Long shot
Levi Colwill (4.5m) is the second Chelsea player I want to mention this week. Colwill has played a full 90 minutes in 14/15 games this season and is the cheapest nailed on route into the Chelsea defence. Chelsea have one of, if not the best run of upcoming fixtures in the Premier League. When it comes to his attacking threat, there is not much to talk about, but for a defender at only 4.5m you cannot expect many attacking returns. Colwill is one I would own for the chance of clean sheets even though Chelsea do rank 10th for xG Conceded this season. The Blues have only conceded 18 goals, which puts them at third for actual goals conceded. The only teams better off than that are the teams directly above and below them in the table; Liverpool and Arsenal.
Colwill is only owned by 4.2% of FPL managers, which makes him a good differential.
Upcoming games to follow
From an FPL perspective there are a few upcoming games I will be following. The first one is Saturday’s meeting between Arsenal and Everton. Although the Toffees came good to beat Wolves 4-0 last time out, I expect Arsenal to win comfortably here. Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Gabriel (if fit) are players I would keep an eye on in this game.
Spurs play Southampton on Sunday, and that is another game I’ll be watching closely. And that’s simply because Spurs have a few interesting players and Southampton are statistically, the worst team in the league. Heung-min Son and Dominic Solanke are the two players of most interest to me at the moment.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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Rangers take on Tottenham Hotspur in the Europa League this evening with both sides fighting for a place in the top eight of the table, thus securing an automatic berth in the last 16.
Given the change of format across all three European club competitions, it was perhaps inevitable that two British Clubs would be drawn together.
With just two fixtures left after this one, a victory for either side could prove crucial to their European ambitions this season.
Battle of Britain clash
For those in the UK there is nothing quite like a Battle of Britain type clash in Europe. The last one Rangers were involved in ended in a 7-1 defeat to Liverpool at Ibrox, representing their heaviest ever home loss in Europe.
In recent years, Spurs have defeated Manchester City on the way to the 2019 Champions League final, while their last clash against Scottish opposition saw them secure a 5-0 aggregate win over Hearts in the Europa League playoff round back in 2011.
The two teams have combined to win four major European trophies, reaching a further six finals, indicating that this is a clash between two of Britain’s most successful clubs.
The Light Blues and Spurs have faced off once before, with the North Londoners coming out victors in the 1962/63 European Cup Winner’s Cup first round. Can you remember that one!?
Key players
Former Celtic manager Ange Postecoglou will be hoping his return to Ibrox ends in a positive manner. Spurs’ Jekyll and Hyde form has seen them defeat Man City twice in recent weeks, yet also suffer defeats against Bournemouth and Ipswich Town.
Brennan Johnson could be the key man for Spurs, despite coming off with illness against Chelsea. The Welshman has scored three times in the Europa League, adding a further assist and he could line up alongside Will Lankshear and Heung-min Son.
Dejan Kulusevski was impressive against AS Roma last time out in Europe, recording an assist while registering four shots during the match and the Ibrox side will need to be wary of the threat he poses.
The Rangers attack is clicking into gear at exactly the right time. Nine goals were scored over their previous two games, with Hamza Igamane scoring twice in the process. The African starlet netted twice against OGC Nice last time out in Europe and he could offer a key attacking threat against Spurs.
Igamane player traits
Igamane should be supported by Nedim Bajrami and Václav Černý on the flanks. The pair have registered six goal contributions between them across five matches.
If this attacking trio can get firing, then they could cause Spurs some trouble.
Team news
Postecoglou has a few players on the treatment table. Richarlison, Mikey Moore and Wilson Odobert remain out, while centre-backs Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero were forced off against Chelsea, ruling them out for the clash tonight.
For Rangers, Tom Lawrence and Oscar Cortes are still unavailable, while Rabbi Matondo is finally back in full training after injury.
Ianis Hagi and Danilo have been impressive recently, but the duo were omitted from the Europa League squad at the start of the season, meaning coach Philippe Clement will have to make do without.
Prediction
This is a match which is so hard to predict. Given how good Spurs can be when they are at full flow, everything points to a straightforward win for them. But recent defensive frailties suggest that if Rangers can click into gear going forward, they may well have a chance of gaining a positive result.
For these reasons, I predict an entertaining 2-2 draw.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from the Europa League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.
