Brentford will be hoping to get back to normal this term after a disappointing 2023/24 campaign.
By Sam McGuire
The Bees had made a habit of improving year after year in the English top-flight. And they’ll want to put what happened last season behind them.
What happened last season?
Thomas Frank could only guide his side to a 16th-place finish. They finished 20 points worse off than the 2022/23 season.
At one stage, it appeared as though they could genuinely find themselves in a relegation battle but they ended the season in a positive way to secure their place in the Premier League for a fourth successive term.
The table didn’t tell the whole story though when it came to Brentford. Frank’s side had a lot of bad luck, both on and off the pitch, and their performances warranted a much higher finish.
Their underlying numbers had them finishing mid-table. In fact, they had an Expected Points tally of 52, a haul that had them 10th in the Premier League. They finished 13 points worse off while Manchester United, for example, finished 15 points better off.
It goes to show how a season without luck can cause chaos whereas if everything goes your way, results can paper over cracks.
Brentford were without key players for large periods of the season. Ivan Toney was suspended, and Yoane Wissa missed games, as did Bryan Mbuemo, though the latter did manage to finish as the top scorer for the club with six. This could go some way to explaining exactly why the Bees underperformed their Expected Goals numbers. They didn’t have a reliable goal threat.
They struggled in defence too, shipping in 65 goals despite giving up chances with 56.7 Expected Goals Against. A combination of poor goalkeeping and poor finishing hurt the Bees.
Brentford had a horrible December, losing seven of eight matches. This form was across a four-month period though. Between November and February, the Bees lost 12 of 15 games.
Frank’s side took 13 points from their final nine matches to make the end of the season a little more comfortable.
What has happened during the summer?
Not much as of yet.
The Bees did act quickly to bring in a reliable goal threat in Igor Thiago. However, he’s ruled out to the end of the year after sustaining a knee injury in pre-season. This puts added pressure on the club to keep hold of Toney. The forward is into the final year of his deal with Brentford and he’s reportedly a target for a number of clubs.
The arrival of Thiago was supposed to offset the loss of Toney but if he does depart, and Brentford don’t bring in cover for the newly signed striker, another relegation battle could well be on the cards.
David Raya made his loan move to Arsenal a permanent one but that was expected and the Bees aren’t likely going to bring in a new shot-stopper after signing Mark Flekken last summer.
What they should be aiming for next season?
They’ll want mid-table security after the stress of last season. They had been in a position to potentially attack a European place but not now. There are still question marks over Flekken after such a huge underperformance last season while the attack is a bit of an unknown right now with Toney’s future up in the air and Thiago out for the foreseeable future.
Frank will want a boring, comfortable season this time around. If they’re fortunate with injuries, they might get it. They are owed some good luck.
Prediction: 12th
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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