Page 25 – The Pulse of Football

Oct

2024

Chris Rigg and Jobe Bellingham are leading Sunderland’s youthful charge

It’s difficult to imagine two footballing environments as contrasting as Sunderland and Real Madrid, but the Bellingham brothers are thriving in both. While Jude continues to shine for the Spanish and European champions, younger sibling Jobe is making his own way at the Stadium of Light. The future is bright for him too.

By Graham Ruthven

Like Jude, Jobe Bellingham broke through at Birmingham City, but stayed in the Championship by joining Sunderland last year. Since then, the teenager has developed at a dramatic rate. Indeed, he is now the driving force of a team currently sitting top of the English second tier and targeting promotion to the Premier League.

Chris Rigg is another prodigious youngster currently pushing The Black Cats towards the Championship title. At just 17, he is even younger than Bellingham and like his midfield partner chose Sunderland as the place place to grow after being scouted by some of the biggest clubs in Europe.

This says something about Sunderland’s new focus on youth. Of the 11 players to have played the most league minutes for The Black Cats this season, only Patrick Roberts (27) and Luke O’Nien (29) is anywhere near the age of 30. Regis Le Bris’ team is one of the youngest in the Championship.

Left back Dennis Cirkin is a first team figure at 22 with Trai Hume on the other side of the defence the same age. Then there’s Dan Neil – also 22 – at the base of the midfield and 17-year-old Romaine Mundle on the left side of the front three. 19-year-old Eliezer Mayenda has also made an impact in the centre forward position.

*Bellingham vs. Rigg stats comparison, EFL Championship 2024/25*

It’s Bellingham and Rigg, however, who have made the greatest impression so far this season. As part of Sunderland’s midfield three in a 4-3-3 formation, the pair are proving themselves to be the dynamic, technical and adaptable operators required at the top of the modern game. They’re improving all the time.

Rigg, who is reportedly being monitored by Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City, is more rounded in his game than possibly any other midfielder his age. The 17-year-old is comfortable with the ball at his feet. He can pass. He can dribble. He has an eye for goal, as demonstrated by his three league strikes this season. He’s become undroppable.

According to Tony Mowbray, Rigg also possesses a “Roy Keane-esque type of nastiness” that makes him extremely effective out of possession. Rigg’s positional awareness is another quality that makes him stand out. He has become a symbol of Sunderland’s aggressive and innovative style of play.

Many have drawn comparisons between Rigg and Jordan Henderson. Like the former Liverpool captain, Rigg has natural leadership qualities which belie his age. This gives him an authority on the pitch that is difficult to teach. “Rigg is a good symbol of what we want to create and what we want to build as a team, as a club,” said Le Bris.

Like his older brother, Bellingham is most comfortable when positioned high up the pitch, but Le Bris has deployed the 19-year-old in a slightly deeper role this season. Bellingham still has the freedom to get forward and pose a goal threat, but he is being asked to contribute more as a midfield rhythm builder. This has aided his development.

“He’s still a young player with the ability to play in many different roles,” explain Le Bris when recently asked about Bellingham’s role for Sunderland. “But I like him as a number eight because I think he’s an offensive midfielder. He can express his power, his ability to run and his ability to press – to link defence and attack.”

On their current upward trajectory, Sunderland will lose Bellingham and Rigg at some point in the future. That’s just how modern football works. The Black Cats were able to resist overtures for Bellingham from Brentford, Crystal Palace, and Tottenham Hotspur in the summer, but the young midfielder will one day need to leave the North East to achieve his career ambitions.

Bellingham has been clear about one of his ambitions – to play alongside his brother for England. “Because we’re of a similar age and we’ve played together for so long – in the street and on tufts of grass – to play with my brother for England, that would be the biggest dream of my life,” said Jobe.

“That would mean more than any of the trophies, especially if we managed to do it on a consistent basis and play at a major tournament together, win things together. Honestly, nothing would even get close to that. Nothing.”

Should Jobe get as far as the England team, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Rigg could be another familiar face alongside him. Sunderland has become the Championship’s most productive talent incubator and in Bellingham and Rigg they have two players destined for the top.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Leverkusen game on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Over 2 games in 4 days, Darwin Nunez showed he can be a striker for Arne Slot’s Liverpool

“I think it’s the challenge we as a staff always have, to bring the best out of individuals.”

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

Arne Slot was candid in his assessment of Darwin Núñez‘s start to life under his management, speaking after a listless display from the No. 9 in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Bologna in the Champions League.

The head coach hooked Núñez after an hour at Anfield, visibly frustrated in his technical area as the Uruguayan looked incapable of meeting his tactical criteria.

“We try to find different ways of positioning Darwin than Diogo, because they are not the same players,” Slot continued. “So their teammates also adjust to the player they are playing with.”

Slot had made it clear that Diogo Jota remained his first choice, but there was no backing down from the stance held even prior to his first day in the job – that he could be the man to coax consistency out of Liverpool’s most polarising player.

Speaking weeks prior to that clash, the Dutchman explained: “I think Diogo is a bit more a striker that can also go into the midfield and play as a false nine or a nine-and-a-half, where Darwin is more the target man, that finishes off a good attack.

“I think it comes to what do you have to do when we have the ball and when we don’t have the ball, and fit his own characteristics into that. We did work with him on his qualities to get the best out of him. But there’s also a general thing he has to understand, like all the others.”

Núñez has become so divisive among fans and the media alike that conclusions were already drawn on his future at the club weeks into Slot’s reign, having been painted as a pet project for Jürgen Klopp.

It was Klopp who pushed Liverpool to sanction a deal that would make Núñez their most expensive signing ever, with Christopher Nkunku – then of RB Leipzig, now of Chelsea – the preferred target among the club’s recruitment staff.

Speaking to The Athletic in August, Ian Graham, who at the time of the signing was Liverpool’s director of research, revealed that he voiced his concerns over how much of a change it would require to Klopp’s system.

“He was a very different type of player to Firmino,” Graham recalled, with Roberto Firmino having long been the poster boy of Klopp’s Liverpool.

“My questions were: ‘Are we going to change our style or formation for him? Is he a good enough player that it might be worth making those changes?’. It was something we had resisted for many years.

“We went through the same data process for Núñez as with other players. I wanted to make sure that everyone knew what a big change it would be with Núñez. It was more, ‘are we sure we’re going to make the best use of him?’.”

Graham even went on to intimate that Klopp had been convinced by a virtuoso display from Núñez in Benfica’s clashes with Liverpool in the Champions League in April 2022.

Núñez scored twice over two quarter-final legs, but stretched Alisson throughout and beat the Brazilian with two more sublime finishes at the Estadio da Luz, only to be ruled out both times by the offside flag.

“That has an effect on people,” Graham admitted. “It didn’t do him any harm in becoming a Liverpool player.”

*Benfica vs. Liverpool, Champions League 2021/22*

But under the microscope of Anfield and with the weight of an £85 million price tag, the raw, exciting power of Benfica’s Núñez has not been enough.

While there may have been more concessions under Klopp there is no such standing under Slot, who effectively wiped the slate clean on his arrival, leading to a revival in fortunes for the likes of Ryan Gravenberch and Luis Díaz.

Slot has already repeated his belief that Núñez must adhere to his standards off the ball before he can be trusted as a regular starter, and his substitution against Bologna was another sign that things weren’t going as hoped at this early juncture.

But over the space of four days, the 25-year-old has displayed that he does, in fact, get it – and he did so in two very different performances.

Coming off the bench in Liverpool’s 2-1 win over Chelsea, Núñez’s quality came largely off the ball, battling for possession, drawing fouls and maintaining the Reds’ control.

He only played an hour in that victory at Anfield, but he contested the most duels of any player (17), also winning the most (nine), while no player was fouled more times (four).

Only Trent Alexander-Arnold (10) made more defensive actions than Núñez (eight) which, for a striker, is an outrageous tally.

The No. 9 also acted as playmaker against Chelsea, with one scything pass opening up an attack for Cody Gakpo, while another through ball sent Curtis Jones through before being brought down by Robert Sánchez in an incident which saw a penalty controversially ruled out.

Three days later, Núñez started in Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Leipzig in the Champions League, with his best work on that night coming around the six-yard box – including the winning goal.

He made sure Mohamed Salah‘s potentially goalbound header made it over the line, but also should have won a penalty after a clear foul from centre-back Willi Orban and tested Peter Gulacsi with a bullet header after his goal.

While he spent the evening dropping deep, linking play and reclaiming possession against Chelsea, Núñez was more of an out-and-out striker against Leipzig – he failed to record a single touch in Chelsea’s box on Sunday, whereas no player touched the ball more times in Leipzig’s box on Wednesday (eight).

Only Gakpo (four) had more shots on goal against Leipzig than Núñez’s three, with no player firing more shots on target than the centre-forward who came away with a 100 percent accuracy.

This time, he contested far fewer duels (eight) and won even fewer (two), but perhaps that was more due to tactical instruction than quality of output.

Those two games over four days showed the duality of Darwin Núñez, but not in the way he has struggled with throughout his two years at Liverpool so far.

Instead, they showed that he can do both jobs up front: he can be that nine-and-a-half that Slot sees in Jota, but he can also be the dominant, all-powerful No. 9 that decides big games.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Xabi Alonso’s tactical shift is designed to make Leverkusen even harder to beat

There was no team more exhilarating to watch last season than Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s side made every other team in Germany – and Europe – look dull by comparison. They scored goals for fun, averaging 2.6 goals per league game on their way to Bundesliga glory, and made a habit of producing dramatic late moments, scoring 19 stoppage time goals.

By Graham Ruthven

Alonso remained at Leverkusen over the summer, and so too have many of his team’s traits – The Black and Reds scored a stoppage time winner against Borussia Monchengladbach on the opening day of the new season. However, the Spanish coach is also making tactical adjustments to ensure Leverkusen’s continued evolution.

This was evident in the recent matches against Bayern Munich and AC Milan when Leverkusen took a more conservative approach. At the Allianz Arena against their biggest rivals for the Bundesliga title, Alonso’s team sat back and asked the Bavarians to break them down. They played against the ball for the majority of the match and claimed a point.

Against AC Milan, Leverkusen started with their customary energy and attack-minded ambition, but once again dropped their defensive line back to protect a 1-0 lead. This is a new look for a team that won the German title for the first time last season by being as proactive as possible in every single game they played.

It could be that Alonso was simply responding to Leverkusen’s defensive vulnerability of the first few matches of the season. The Black and Reds haven’t kept a single clean sheet in the Bundesliga this season and have paid for a lack of stability at the back with a defeat to RB Leipzig and a home draw against promoted Holstein Kiel.

Alternatively, Alonso is following the tactical zeitgeist. Managers like Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola are control freaks. They prioritise dominance above all else and Bayer Leverkusen were used to being in control last season – they had the highest average share of possession of any team in the Bundesliga.

Arteta in particular, however, is showing a different way to control games. Arsenal like to have the ball too, but much of Arteta’s game plan is about controlling matches out of possession. The Gunners have repurposed centre backs as full backs (see Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori) and aim to limit opponents just as much as they impose their own attacking game.

All this has led to Arsenal earning a reputation for being the Premier League’s best defensive unit since the days of peak José Mourinho. If the North London side are to end their long wait for a title this season, it will be on the back of their defensive strength. This is the thing that makes them so formidable.

Alonso might well be borrowing a page from the Arteta playbook by setting up Bayer Leverkusen to control games out of possession this season. It might go against the grain for a team that essentially plays its two wing backs as out-and-out attackers, but this could be the tactical evolution required for Leverkusen to take the next step.

*Typical Leverkusen formation, with 2024/25 Bundesliga stats*

Of course, Alonso’s Arsenal-ification of Bayer Leverkusen mustn’t come at the cost of their natural attacking verve. Last season, The Black and Reds were so successful because of the number of different ways they can harm opponents. They have wing backs who effectively play as wide attackers. And a battering ram of a centre forward who can find scoring chances in tight spaces. And midfielders who can pick out the top corner from 25 yards out.

Some might argue Arteta has veered too far into defensive control over creative flair. While the absence of Martin Ødegaard has certainly been a factor, Arsenal are trailing behind Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea in terms of Expected Goals (xG) in the Premier League this season. Alonso would be wise to give his Leverkusen team another dimension rather than change their character entirely.

Sooner or later, Alonso will depart the Bay Arena to take the next step in his managerial career. The 42-year-old might have turned down Bayern Munich and Liverpool this summer, but speculation is already swirling about Manchester City and Real Madrid’s interest in the former midfielder taking over at some point in the future.

For the time being, though, Alonso is focused on turning Bayer Leverkusen into a team that can do it all. Having won the Bundesliga last season, the Champions League presents the next opportunity for Alonso and his players this season. The work being put in now in the league phase could help them make a deep run in the knockout rounds.

Alonso wasn’t the only one to stay at the Bay Arena over the summer. Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Victor Boniface were linked with transfers, but they all stayed. Alonso has complete buy-in from everyone at Leverkusen. If he wants to turn The Black and Reds into Arsenal, nobody will argue against him. The process is already taking place.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Leverkusen game on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

FotMob Opinion: Refereeing conspiracy theories are damaging the Premier League

There was a time when one of the most fundamental statements that could be made about football was that ‘the referee’s decision is final’. These five simple words sat deep at the heart of the way in which the game was played. Decisions may be right, decisions may be wrong, but once the referee has made a decision, that’s the only one that matters.

By Ian King

We are a long way from those days, and if we’re pausing to wonder why and how this should have happened, we can only look upon an entire game which has become too self-important for decisions to be right or wrong and which has distorted itself beyond recognition in order to accommodate this way of thinking.

But in recent years, we have even contrived to find a way to go beyond that and into the realms of full-blown conspiracy theory. The matter of the referee’s decision being final was fatally undermined by the attitudes of managers, players and in many cases the media long ago. We’ve moved from refusing to accept that refereeing can get things wrong to arguing that they’re making bad decisions when they’re not.

It is, frankly, astonishing that there is much of a debate going on over whether William Saliba should have been sent off during the match between Bournemouth and Arsenal on Saturday. There is no question that it was a foul. This sort of tactical foul, halting a break in the belief that a yellow card will be worth it, has been going on for years, and honestly Saliba was sold an absolute pup of a pass by Leandro Trossard.

Ben White was a good thirty yards from the ball, and was not realistically going to get back and track across. Evanilson was denied a clear goalscoring opportunity. It’s right there in front of anybody who looks at it, no matter how many arrows get drawn across carefully selected stills from the video footage.

The same could be said for David Raya’s foul on the same player for the penalty kick that sealed Bournemouth’s win. You can watch Raya clatter into Evanilson from multiple different angles in slow motion, should you wish. Even Mikel Arteta was relatively subdued about that particular incident after the match, considering his outspokenness on this matter.

If anything, the one thing that these two pivotal moments in this match had in common was Arsenal sloppiness. If their supporters do want to get angry over this, then perhaps they should be getting angry at Leandro Trossard, whose wildly careless pass left Saliba with little alternative but to pull Evanilson back, or at Jakub Kiwior, whose wayward backpass played Evanilson in for the penalty.

But in a world in which practically everybody seems to be increasingly only seeing what they choose to see, perhaps it’s inevitable that any argument between something which may cause some criticism of a football team and a grand conspiracy to – for some reason – deny this particular football team refereeing decisions in full view of the entire world will favour the latter rather than the former. We live in the age of ‘fake news’ and conspiracy theories. Why should football be exempt from this?

This phenomenon isn’t exclusive to Arsenal, of course. The line over opinion on Manchester City’s 115 charges is sharply drawn between fans of clubs who want to spend whatever they like in order to buy success and everybody else. The same might be said for the controversial ownership of Newcastle United. And of course, as soon as Everton and Nottingham Forest were undone by their own financial incontinence and received points deductions last season, it was the Premier League itself which came under fire for being ‘corrupt’ rather than the owners of the clubs for running themselves so financially incompetently that they ended up in this position in the first place. The idea that there is a “Red Mafia” controlling English football has become commonplace.

But the refereeing conspiracy theories are a perfect storm. No-one likes referees in the first place and they’ve always been little short of punching bags who act as human shields for players and managers who fall short of expectation. On top of this, the theories–for example, that Jarred Gillett, who was running the VAR at Bournemouth, is a Liverpool fan and arranged the Saliba sending off to ensure that he was suspended for this week’s Arsenal vs Liverpool Premier League match – simply are going to appeal to a very specific cross-section of people, all the more so when individuals within the club itself are lending credence to them.

Where this sort of conspiring goes next is just about anybody’s guess. How long will it be before a referee is assaulted? When does it go too far? If the long-term goal of those who are so incandescent at every refereeing decision given against their team that they can’t even focus their eyes properly is to increase the preponderance of VAR, then perhaps that’s the ultimate endpoint; a game refereed entirely using microchips and algorithms, with no room allowable for interpretation.

If that sounds extreme, it should probably be remembered that we are essentially dealing with people who believe that it’s impossible for human beings to be unbiased. It feels as though the full automation of refereeing might be the only way to come anywhere close to quieting this growing din, and even then it’s not difficult to imagine similar complaints being levelled at those who wrote the algorithm.

VAR was introduced in order to try and do something about this growing belief that football was too important to get refereeing decisions wrong, but it never seemed to be considered that there are many who don’t care about right or wrong, only that they win. There’s no point in arguing with them. They’ve reached their conclusion and will retro-fit anything to fit that. And in the meantime, all the rest of us can do is wonder where this all ends up, and what might shake us out of this insanity.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Chelsea face Panathinaikos in an early Conference League kick-off

The path to Chelsea’s redemption leads to Athens

By Filip Mishov

Recent Form

The Blues are travelling to the Greek capital in a bid to get back to winning ways and to reinstill some of the lost confidence within the squad over the past few weeks, which resulted in Sunday’s narrow 2-1 defeat at Liverpool. Enzo Maresca was criticized by some at the start of the month when the Italian coach said, “I really don’t think we can compete with City or Arsenal,” and now the list might include Liverpool too, as it became evident that Chelsea perhaps lack the experience and team cohesion of the sides who’s squads have been together for an extended period of time.

However, Chelsea are still the team with most chances created (26) in the Premier league and the learning curve is all part of the process for Maresca’s fledgling side. But they will face another difficult challenge in Athens tonight.

Chelsea have started their Conference League campaign in style by securing a win (4-2) against Gent at Stamford Bridge and after the club’s decision to leave Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell, Romeo Lavia and Cole Palmer out of their European squad, the UECL matches can’t come soon enough for their fringe players. With that being said, Maresca has plenty of options to choose from, but given Panathinaikos’ passionate supporters and the inevitable hostile atmosphere at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, the tactician is expected to mix things up in order to counter the surroundings.

*Possible Chelsea XI, built with the lineup builder at FotMob.com*

Team news

After the vice-captain, Enzo Fernández missed out on a place in the starting XI over the weekend, the fiery Argentinean is expected to lead out the team in Athens with most of the other players like Mykhaylo Mudryk, Joao Félix and Christopher Nkunku desperately waiting for a chance to impress and earn a starting spot. The captain, Reece James is set for a rest after returning from long-term injury, but Robert Sánchez should keep his place between the posts given Filip Jörgensen‘s concussion issues.

Tough times for Panathinaikos

The Greek club have endured a turbulent start of the season both on and off the pitch with the football world recently rocked by the tragic passing of their defender, George Baldock.

Former Uruguay national team coach Diego Alonso has had a lot to contend with and the Green and Whites are currently sat in sixth place in the Greek Super League 1 ahead of this, their first-ever meeting with Chelsea. Last season’s top scorer Fotis Ioannidis is injured and will miss the clash, but the former Manchester United winger Facundo Pellistri is among the forwards aiming to leave their mark on proceedings.

Predictions

Chelsea have been bragging about the so-called “positives to take” from their defeat at Anfield as the Blues dominated in shots, possession, passes and take-ons, among other stats, but the trip to Athens presents another test for the strength of their squad in depth. As for Panathinaikos, the Green and Whites boast an abysmal record against English opponents in European competition as they have recorded just a single win in 18 attempts, but that was against another London-based club (Arsenal) back in 2001.

Obviously, Maresca’s young guns are favourites to go far in the UEFA’s third-tier club competition and given the reputation of some of the players, Christopher Nkunku, for example, who has already shone in the Champions League, anything other than a victory in Greece will be looked on as a failure for the Blues.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa Conference League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Preview: Manchester United’s reunion with Mourinho in Türkiye

Wayne Rooney was on the scoresheet the last time Manchester United faced Fenerbahçe, though he only scored a late consolation goal in a 2-1 defeat. Having won just one of their last six fixtures, the Red Devils will be keen to avoid a similar result eight years on.

By Neel Shelat

A shaky start for the Special One

There was a lot of fanfare when José Mourinho’s move to Fenerbahçe was announced this summer. He was amply supported in the transfer window too with new arrivals including loan deals for Allan Saint-Maximin, Sofyan Amrabat and Filip Kostić, and the Süper Lig’s most expensive player, Youssef En-Nesyri. The expectation, then, was no less than the club’s first league title in a decade.

So far, things are not going smoothly, Fener were eliminated from the UEFA Champions League qualifiers at the hands of Lille, failed to win their domestic season-opener against newly-promoted Göztepe and worst of all, lost to city rivals Galatasaray in what was their first meeting of the season.

There already are murmurs of a negative environment in the dressing room, so the Portuguese tactician seems to be under pressure already. Especially in recent years, Mourinho has developed into much more of a cup expert, so he may well have to rely on his exploits in the Europa League to protect his position as long as possible.

United looking for their first UEL win of the season

The new format of the Europa League makes it so that two-thirds of the teams that enter the group stage will advance to the knockouts. So, it would take quite a catastrophic campaign for Manchester United to fail to advance, but they will be keen to register their first win of the season after drawing both their matches so far – against FC Twente and Porto. The Red Devils should aim for a top-eight finish to skip the first knockout round, which will be held in February, on what would be the Thursdays either side of a Premier League fixture against Tottenham Hotspur.

United have had incessant injury issues dating back to last season, so the less congested they can make their fixture schedule, the better their chances will be of achieving something at the end of the season. At present, they will be without as many as seven first-team players for this fixture, so it will be a depleted squad that travels to Türkiye. They will also be without the suspended Bruno Fernandes.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Europa League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW 9

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By FotMob, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway, but unlike the frustrated Fantasy Premier League players in the office, he did something we could only dream of last season. He finished first, ahead of 11 million other managers in the 2023/24 season.

Who better then, to provide us with some expert advice each week.

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

Tottenham Hotspur once again proved that they are one of the better attacking sides in the league, scoring 4 against West Ham last weekend. Heung Min Son (worth 9.9m in the game) may have just came back from injury, but he looked really sharp. He was awarded a goal and even a questionable assist that was later removed from the game. He created two chances and had four shots in the box, but despite the proximity to goal, only accumulated a total of 0.41 xG. Spurs have good fixtures going forward and Son is definitely one to consider for your team.

Raúl Jímenez (5.7m) has started the last five Premier League games for Fulham and has returned in every single one of them! In GW8, against Aston Villa, he got himself into many good positions. He created 0.74 xG, but anyone owning him would have been ruing the three big chances he wasted, and the fact that Andreas Pereira missed a penalty that had been won by Jímenez. The silver lining might be that the Mexican international now takes over penalty duties, something that makes him even more of an asset.

Wolverhampton Wanderers’ fixtures are gradually getting better from this gameweek onwards and I do believe that if you don’t want to go for Jímenez, a former-Wolves player himself, that both Jørgen Strand-Larsen (5.5m) and Matheus Cunha (6.5m) will be good options given the nature of their upcoming games. Strand-Larsen has scored more points than Cunha this season, but I think I prefer Cunha because he has better underlying numbers (0.48 vs 0.28 xG involvements per 90) and the fact that he’s most probably on penalties since Pablo Sarabia isn’t playing regularly and Hwang Hee-Chan is out injured.

Long shot

Jarrod Bowen (7.4) probably should’ve been credited with an assist last weekend but he efforts were not rewarded in West Ham’s defeat to Spurs. This season he averages 0.39 xG involvements per 90, which isn’t the best, but I still believe Bowen is a viable asset if you can fit him into your team. Bowen is in good form, appears to be making good in-game decisions and remains a creative spark for this West Ham side.

Upcoming games to follow

In GW9 there is specifically one game that I think might be huge for FPL. That is, of course, Manchester City at home to Southampton. A lot of us own a number of Man City players and I wouldn’t sell them just yet, despite their relatively poor form defensively and Erling Haaland blanking 3 games in a row. Southampton seem to be in tatters and it might even be Russel Martin’s last game. This is a game where I definitely see 2.5 xG+ for Man City.

Another game I am looking forward to watching is Brentford vs Ipswich. Ipswich are very leaky defensively and average a whopping 2.18 xG conceded. Yoane Wissa just came back from injury and got a 25 minute cameo against Manchester United, but failed to impress. I can see a few attacking returns from both sides, especially from Bryan Mbeumo and probably Liam Delap as he always seems to be involved whenever Ipswich score.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Oct

2024

Christian Benteke has claimed the MLS Golden Boot but could he also be this year’s MVP?

Christian Benteke has been one of the standout players in Major League Soccer this season, winning the Golden Boot award after topping the regular season goalscoring charts with 23, but should the DC United centre-forward also be considered for the league’s top individual honour in 2024?

By James Nalton

Many of the debates around who should win the MLS Most Valuable Player award stem from different ideas of what the award means.

No definition is provided by the league itself, so voters are left to make up their own minds as to what MVP represents, and what kind of individual qualities are being rewarded.

“Most valuable” can suggest many things, from the value a player brings to a franchise in a wider sense to a more specific focus on what they bring on the field.

In terms of on-field performance, is the most valuable player equivalent to the best player in the league, or is it the player who is the most indispensable to their team? These two things are often one and the same, but not always.

Many media members have already announced their voting intentions publicly. Taking these into account, the two front runners appear to be Lionel Messi of Inter Miami and Cucho Hernández of Columbus Crew.

Few would dispute that these are the two best players in the league, and if “MVP” is equal to “best player”, then they are the obvious candidates.

It just so happens that their teams are the best in the league, too. Inter Miami won the Supporters’ Shield in record-breaking fashion, while Columbus Crew play some of the best football MLS has seen, under the tutelage of French head coach Wilfried Nancy.

Both of these teams have been mostly fine when their MVPs have been unavailable, though. Inter Miami have won ten games, drawn two and lost three in Messi’s absence, while the Crew have won four, drawn two and lost one without Cucho.

*Messi vs. Hernández stats comparison, MLS 2024*

There is no doubt these teams are better with their star players, but they don’t miss them massively when they are not there, at least in terms of results.

Christian Benteke, on the other hand, is DC United. He’s their game plan, their goalscorer and undoubtedly their most valuable player. As the top goalscorer in MLS in 2024, you could then also argue that he is the league-wide MVP this year.

The Belgian has scored 44% of DC United’s goals in MLS this season, and the next in line for goals scored for Troy Lesesne’s team this season, behind Benteke’s 23, was Gabriel Pirani with just six. No other DC United player scored more than three.

Benteke’s value is also demonstrated by his extraordinary stats for aerial duels and heading.

He topped the league for headed shots (40), headed goals (9), aerial duels contested (436) and aerial duels won (314). 43% of his shots taken were headers.

Those figures for aerial duels are the highest in MLS history, eclipsing his own from 2023 when he contested 367 aerial duels and won 244 – the second highest in MLS history. C.J. Sapong is third in MLS history for aerial duels contested with 268 for Chicago Fire in 2019, while Steve Birnbaum is third for aerial duels won with 177 for DC United in 2019 – both of which demonstrate how far ahead Benteke has been in this area of the game.

*Benteke shot map, headers only, MLS 2024*

It’s perhaps unfair to say DC United are just Benteke, after all, someone needs to provide assists for his goals and the crosses from which he heads those shots on goal.

And in the four games Benteke missed this season, the team scored six goals but failed to pick up a win, drawing three and losing one.

With overall performance in mind, Benteke also wins his fair share of headers when helping out in defence at set pieces – this is not just an attacking weapon.

DC United are also an active pressing team, which is no surprise given this has been a feature of head coach Lesesne’s favoured style of play since his time with New Mexico United, and this is combined with a directness in possession.

Benteke is once again a key part of that direct play, though, able to hold the ball up well, receiving it to feet as well as in the air, and can act as an outlet to retain possession once the ball has been won back.

Despite these other team traits, Benteke is very much the player relied upon, as his goalscoring record shows, especially compared to the lack of goals scored by his teammates.

The 2024 MLS MVP is likely to go to one of Cucho or Messi, most likely the latter given his overall profile and value to the league, but in terms of importance to a team, they don’t get much more valuable than Benteke.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Russell Martin needs his Southampton side to turn performances into points

Only four teams in Premier League history have picked up just one point from their opening nine matches. That figure could soon rise to six.

By Sam McGuire

Wolves and Southampton are winless in the English top-flight this term, and both teams have picked up just a single point.

Gary O’Neil takes his side to Brighton this weekend, and that will be a struggle but the Seagulls have been a little erratic at times this term, so maybe Wolves can spring a surprise. Southampton, by comparison, make the trip up north to take on champions Manchester City. A much tougher proposition for Russell Martin and his players.

The pressure is mounting on the Southampton boss after a disappointing start to the 2024/25 Premier League campaign. A heavy loss against Pep Guardiola’s side might be difficult to ignore. The former Swansea City tactician is being scrutinised for his decision to stick to his playing style principles despite the fact the Saints are struggling. For now, the 38-year-old isn’t fearing the sack.

Martin was asked about his short-term future after the recent loss to Leicester City, a game in which Southampton held a 2-0 lead before losing 3-2, and replied: “No. I had a brilliant chat with Dragan [Solak, Saints owner] and the guys yesterday. We had a board meeting.

“It was planned, so you can relax. I wouldn’t give you any details if we were sitting top of the Premier League.”

Football is a results business but Martin, if queried, will point to performances. Southampton are unlucky not to have recorded a win this term. In fact, when looking at Expected Points, the Saints, per the FotMob Expected Goals table, should be on seven. They’re playing like a team that should be in a relegation fight but who, at the time of writing, would’ve done enough to be outside of the drop zone.

When looking at the underlying numbers, Southampton have been unlucky in attack. They have scored just six goals from an xG haul of 10. This underperformance is quite significant, especially over an eight-game sample size.

For added context, Martin’s team have lost by the odd goal in three of their eight matches this season. Had the opportunities they have carved out been scored, losses could have been draws and draws could have been victories. It wouldn’t be as though it wouldn’t have been deserved either.

Instead, the Saints find themselves with just six goals across their eight outings. They’ve also conceded 18.

To make matters even worse, Martin’s side have given up leads to fellow strugglers Ipswich Town and Leicester City. Southampton conceded a stoppage-time equaliser against the Tractor Boys.

It was a game that the hosts had dominated, carving out chances worth 2.49 Expected Goals while limiting the hosts to chances with an xG value of just 1.69. The Saints had four big chances to the two created by Ipswich.

Against Leicester, it was a fairly even game when looking at the Non-Penalty Expected Goals totals. The Foxes edged it 2.42 to 2.15 but Southampton were the better finishers on the day with an Expected Goals on Target haul of 2.62 to Leicester’s 2.53. Again, it was a case of bad luck rather than a bad performance.

The same thing happened in their season-opener against Newcastle United. The hosts had Fabian Schär sent off early on which no doubt impacted their game plan and tactics, but Southampton racked up 19 shots to three and finished with an Expected Goals total of 1.77. The hosts carved out chances worth just 0.25 Expected Goals. The performance should’ve resulted in a comfortable win for the Saints. Instead, they lost 1-0. If that game was replayed, Southampton, with an identical performance, would win it more often than not.

For Martin and his players this term, it feels like a case of once they manage to get over the line for a win in one game, more positive results will follow. The issue is they’re struggling to turn good performances into wins right now.

The fixture list isn’t getting any easier either. After the trip to the Etihad, Southampton face a resurgent Everton team looking to create a greater gap between themselves and the dropzone. They then travel to Molineux for a six-pointer against Wolves before hosting current league leaders Liverpool.

Martin might be under no pressure internally right now but the longer this winless streak goes on, the more likely it is his time as manager of Southampton will be cut short.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Oct

2024

Analysis: Normal service is resuming for Bayern Munich under Vincent Kompany

After their record-breaking run of 11 consecutive Bundesliga titles was brought to a dramatic halt by the invincible Bayer Leverkusen in 2023/24, Bayern Munich found themselves in the very unfamiliar position of starting a season without being clear title favourites. Nevertheless, new head coach Vincent Kompany seems to have brought them back on the right track in the early days of his tenure.

By Neel Shelat

Bayern Munich have lost just one of their ten competitive matches so far this season and find themselves back at the top of the Bundesliga standings after an extremely surprising trophyless 2023/24 campaign. New head coach Vincent Kompany seems to have had an instant impact which few anticipated at the time of his arrival from Burnley, though he did have a promising track record in charge of league-leading teams.

At the current rate, Bayern are on course to win the league fairly comfortably. While they are level on points with RB Leipzig at the moment, the underlying numbers already show that they are a cut above the rest.

*Bundesliga xG table, based on xG for and xG conceded*

So, let us take a look at how Kompany has brought Bayern Munich right back to where they expect to be.

Star-studded squad

Before diving into the tactics, it is worth emphasising the fact that Bayern Munich still have by far the best squad in the Bundesliga. Their drop to third place last season was a clear underperformance, but it stemmed from tactical and structural issues more than anything else. Crucially, Die Roten had absolutely no problems holding on to their stars in the summer, and they even managed to make a couple of noteworthy additions.

The defensive department is perhaps the weakest relative to the rest of the squad, but it is by no means shabby. Manuel Neuer remains an exceptionally well-rounded goalkeeper despite his age and injury issues, while Sven Ulreich is a very well tried and tested backup. Kim Min-jae, Dayot Upamecano, Eric Dier and Hiroki Ito are sufficiently solid centre-back options if nothing else – certainly when compared to their peers around Germany. Alphonso Davies and Sacha Boey are a pair of good attack-minded full-backs, while the versatile skillsets of Raphaël Guerreiro and Josip Stanišić can afford a good deal of flexibility in terms of build-up structures.

Defensive midfield was one of the pain points for Bayern last season, but it seems to have been internally resolved. Aleksandar Pavlović, arguably among the very best young talents in world football at the moment, has slotted into a regular first-team role at the perfect time. His exceptional maturity and understanding of the game mean that he can be partnered by anyone from Joshua Kimmich to João Palhinha. The €50 million or so spent on the latter might seem a bit excessive at the moment, though his presence should prove valuable at times like this when Pavlović is unavailable.

Further up the field, a couple of other youngsters have shone brightest in Bayern’s attack. Jamal Musiala is a well-established attacking midfielder now with over 170 appearances for his club, which makes it easy to forget that he is still only 21 years old. Alongside him, summer signing Michael Olise has instantly showcased his outstanding on-ball qualities and registered six goal involvements in the league so far. Besides them, Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sané are all potent wingers who the other young talents can learn from. The experience of Thomas Müller can also prove valuable in certain fixtures, while Harry Kane remains a world-class striker as evidenced by his hat-trick last weekend.

*Harry Kane Bundesliga summary, 2024/25 season*

Dominant style of play reimposed

One of the issues for Bayern Munich last season was that they could get too rushed too quickly in possession. The pressure of Bayer Leverkusen’s title challengers and their inexperience as chasers seemed to get the better of them, as the record champions failed to finish the season with the highest possession average for the first time since FotMob has been keeping records.

In the early days of the new season, Bayern have gotten right back on track. They have averaged nearly 70% of possession after seven league fixtures as Kompany has made the most of the versatile ball-players in his squad to devise a fluid build-up structure that has been uncluttered by all opposition presses so far.

In fact, Bayern have even dominated proceedings in all the three matches they have failed to win so far this season, so it was only their lack of clinicality in front of goal that has cost them. Unlike last season, contenders in the Bundesliga have not at all been able to go toe-to-toe with the record champions.

For the most part, Bayern’s attack has been on fire as well. The flexible build-up structure has enabled them to consistently feed their attackers in dangerous positions, from where their individual qualities can shine through. Kompany’s side handed out a few thrashings in September as they hit Holstein Kiel for six, smashed nine goals against Dinamo Zagreb in their Champions League opener and scored five at Werder Bremen.

Such dominance naturally means that Bayern’s defence is hardly even tested, so they have the lowest xG conceded tally in the league by some margin. In fact, all potential challengers in the league such as Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Stuttgart have not been at their very best in the early days of the season, so Die Roten could well cruise through the campaign without really being troubled.

If they manage to build up a significant points lead by the turn of the year, Bayern will be able to prioritise the Champions League knockouts more than most of their rivals. The only real question mark is how well their defence will hold up against the best sides in Europe, and we should get some idea about that when they face the likes of Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain in the next month. Either way, Kompany’s side are absolutely on course to challenge for titles on all fronts once again.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Bayern Munich game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.