Page 22 – The Pulse of Football

Feb

2024

Dusan Vlahovic is powering Juve in the Serie A title race

For a while, it seemed as if Dušan Vlahović would leave Juventus in the summer. But the Serbian stayed and is now returning to his best under Massimiliano Allegri and is hitting form at the right time for the Bianconeri.

By Kaustubh Pandey

Vlahović was the talk of the town in Europe during his time at Fiorentina. Vincenzo Italiano’s attacking system at La Viola seemed to be bringing the best out of the Serbian, who was constantly in the box and receiving loads of service. The 21/22 season was his last at the Artemio Franchi, as Vlahović bagged 20 goals in 24 goals in all competitions and that gave him the reputation of being a star marksman.

The Juventus move came as a surprise late in January and while Fiorentina fans weren’t happy about another club star switching La Viola for the Old Lady, it was a big move that Vlahović deserved because of how much he had progressed under different managers. The €80m fee was questioned by many and rightly so, it is unusual for Serie A clubs to spend an amount as hefty as that. Those doubts were accentuated, as Vlahović scored only seven times in the second half of the season at Juve while playing 15 games.

While that number would be enough for some strikers, it didn’t align with the expectations many had from the Serbian. He had gone from scoring in pretty much every game at Fiorentina to scoring in less than half the games he played in. The 2022/23 confirmed the doubts of many, as Vlahović scored only ten times in 27 games in a season where he suffered from injuries and Juve themselves had fitness issues across the board, while dealing with the constant threat of a points deduction. A perception also developed that the ex-Fiorentina man wasn’t cut for Allegri’s pragmatic approach and playing in a very attacking setup under Italiano had only increased his output.

Fast forward to this season, Vlahović has hit form at the right time for the Bianconeri in a vital title race under Allegri. In the last six games, the 24-year-old has scored seven times. It isn’t just the numbers that show how important he has been, but the timing of the goals have also been paramount. He recently scored once in a 1-1 draw against Empoli, bagged braces in 3-0 wins over Lecce and Sassuolo, while scoring once against Salernitana in a crucial 2-1 victory. Months after it seemed as if Vlahović’s future was doomed at Juve, he is shining and the stats show that.

This season, Vlahović has scored 0.81 goals per 90 minutes from an xG of 0.67 per 90, while taking 4.54 shots per 90 minutes. Taking more shots has led to more shots on target and has led to more goals.

Those numbers were much lower last season, as he took less shots and as a result, scored less goals and generated a lower xG. But that isn’t the root cause for him scoring more. Last season, as can be seen below, Vlahović took only 4.99 touches per 90 minutes in the opposition’s box, leading to the perception that he was not suited to Allegri’s system in the long term.

This season, it has changed completely – as seen below. He has taken 6.98 touches per 90 minutes inside the opposition’s box, which is a solid number for any centre-forward, suggesting that it is a myth that he can’t operate efficiently under Allegri. He is getting more touches in the final third, shooting more and as a result, scoring more while also generating a higher xG.

This has happened despite Juve’s average possession percentage having reduced this season to 47 percent. Having said that, Allegri isn’t facing a raft of injuries anymore. While Nicolo Fagioli and Paul Pogba have been either banned or suspended, the establishment of Manuel Locatelli and Weston McKennie as regulars in the midfield three has helped Allegri in attaining some certainty. Bremer, Danilo and Federico Gatti have also become regulars in the back-three, making sure that there is a tried and tested method in place.

A case can also be made of the fact that Vlahović himself has learned the art of playing in a system which is vastly different from that of Italiano’s. That transition has taken time, but it seems to have come about.

It is the emergence of young Kenan Yıldız though, which has proved pivotal for Vlahović and Juve themselves. The Turkish youngster announced himself after a fantastic strike against Frosinone and he has brought a much-needed amount of verve in the final third, as he constantly combined with Vlahović around the box. As Federico Chiesa continues to deal with injury issues, Yıldız has jumped on the chance to impress.

The 18-year-old isn’t a creator and hasn’t assisted Vlahović yet, there were times last season when the 24-year-old played alone upfront in a 3-5-1-1 shape due injuries in the side. Yıldız now plays beside him, taking risks, taking defenders on and helping Juve progress quickly. Him being on the ball gives Vlahović time to make runs, get into the right areas and get more touches in the final third.

The youngster’s emergence has also come about at the right time in the title race and indirectly or directly, the same is also true for Vlahović. With an all-important Derby D’Italia scheduled for today, the striker could decide how Juve fare and it could hinge on how Yıldız performs. The Scudetto race is hotting up and so is Vlahović.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from Serie A on FotMob, with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

Ivory Coast stumble upon a route to success on home soil

Changing manager on the eve of a major tournament is supposed to either be a disaster, or because the boss has presided over one. Spain and Julen Lopetegui parted ways the day before the 2018 World Cup, which was taking things to an extreme, but Vahid Halilhodžić has personal experience of this too: he was dismissed by Ivory Coast four months before the 2010 finals, by Japan two months before the 2018 event, and by Morocco 101 days prior to Qatar 2022 getting underway.

By Karl Matchett

While Morocco could certainly claim to have made the right choice as Walid Regragui took them to the semis in record-breaking fashion, that was very much an outlier – until now, perhaps.

And if Lopetegui’s short-notice exit was extreme, we need another word entirely for Ivory Coast’s latest head coaching axeing, binning off Jean-Louis Gasset midway through hosting this year’s Africa Cup of Nations. Brave, perhaps. Valid. Even sensible, despite the shocking nature of it being without precedent.

Because as was evident in the contrast between group stage stumbles and surprise penalty shootout win in the last 16, the Elephants have given themselves not just a shot at glory on home soil, but sudden belief and cohesion about their game.

With Emerse Faé the caretaker in the dugout, they began understandably timidly against Senegal and were behind within five minutes. But slowly, but surely, they played their way back into the game, grew in stature and – with the critical use of well-timed, impactful substitutes – Ivory Coast were deserved victors in the end.

Consider: while Senegal certainly sat back after scoring early, allowing Ivory Coast possession, the half-time stat pack read just two shots apiece, yielding an xG of 0.14 for each team. Habib Diallo had scored a rocket, but nobody else really fashioned anything of note. Second half, while Senegal offered more attempts, they were low-quality and only one from Sadio Mané registered higher than 0.1 xG individually. Ivory Coast on the other hand scored a penalty, created two big chances and totalled an xG for the entire game of 1.3 to Senegal’s 0.9.

Play became far more fluid, buildup work had more structure, more consistency to it and – even when there was no eventual shot – clear intent and possibility to repeat patterns. Six players managed at least eight final-third entries during the game; five of them were for the host nation. Most of these – and almost all the most important touches in the Senegal penalty box – came after Faé made a host of attacking subs to bring on Franck Kessié, Seb Haller, Christian Kouamé, Simon Adingra and Nicolas Pépé.

The latter won the penalty; the first on that list scored it – as well as the eventual shootout kick to send his team through. Haller played the original pass into the box before Pépé was fouled. Kessié had three shots, the most in the game, and he only played 20 minutes – it was a fierce and determined entrance from the midfielder, while Pépé’s speed stretched play and brought direct runs into the area at just the right time.

Add in the promising and powerful midfield pairing of Seko Fofana and Ibrahim Sangaré – eight recoveries, two shots, two dribbles, ten duels won between them – and there are plenty of options for Faé to work with ahead of the last eight. Indeed, his biggest decisions will come over which impacted enough to start, and which should be held back as influential options off the bench.

And so to the quarter-finals, where suddenly the path looks incredibly open for Ivory Coast, if their attacking talent finds full form and fitness quickly.

With holders Senegal out, much-fancied Morocco gone, big-hitters Cameroon defeated and Egypt – with the continent’s best player, Mohamed Salah – also eliminated, Ivory Coast now find themselves the second-highest ranked nation remaining at the Afcon. Only Nigeria are placed higher than them in men’s football, and they are on the opposite side of the draw.

While that’s not to say the route is an easy one for a team still rediscovering itself, there are enough results in the catalogue to suggest the Elephants can see off Mali, then DR Congo or Guinea and reach the final in Ouattara on 11 February.

The last time they faced Mali – in 2019 – was long ago enough to be considered an irrelevance. But there are far more recent wins over Gambia, Uganda and Guinea-Bissau to point to, along with draws against Morocco, South Africa and DR Congo themselves, albeit the latter with very different, weaker lineups. Add in home support and the incremental self-belief which comes with playing as a team to suddenly knock out the champions, and the emotion that the context of that victory created, and Ivory Coast suddenly have powerful footballing motivators in their corner.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Africa Cup of Nations, with deep stats and players ratings, on FotMob. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

Premier League Preview: Matchday 23

And just like that, Matchday 23 is upon us. This is more of a traditional round of fixtures with games being played across Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Sadly, there’s no Friday night football. This round could be quite pivotal in the grand scheme of things though. So, with that in mind, here’s a look at the standout fixtures.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

Sticky situation for the Toffees

Everton kick things off on Saturday afternoon as they play host to Tottenham Hotspur at Goodison Park. Sean Dyche’s men are now in the relegation zone following their 0-0 draw with Fulham in mid-week combined with Luton’s shock win over Brighton.

This is a must-win game for the hosts. Everton are a point behind the Hatters having played a game more. Defeat here would give Rob Edwards’ side two games in hand and a chance to extend that lead to seven points.

By comparison, Spurs have been on a decent run lately and are now up to fourth in the table after defeating Brentford 3-2. A win here would move them to level on points with Manchester City and Arsenal. They would also move to within five points of leaders Liverpool.

The Blades need to sharpen up

Sheffield United just can’t catch a break.

The Blades are winless in six, losing on four occasions, and find themselves rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table. In three of those six games though, they have held a lead but haven’t been able to convert the advantage into maximum points.

They host Aston Villa this weekend who themselves will be looking to get their campaign back on track after a difficult January.

Unai Emery’s men lost their 17-match unbeaten run at Villa Park on Wednesday with Newcastle United claiming a 3-1 win. Villa have just one win in their last five Premier League outings and this has seen them drop into fifth on goal difference. A win here would get them back on track but it might not be anywhere near as straightforward as this fixture may have looked a month ago.

Manchester United on the march

Manchester United claimed a remarkable 4-3 win over Wolves on Thursday evening with the winner being scored in the 97th minute. It means they’re just a point behind sixth-placed West Ham United, a team they host on Sunday.

When the two teams met just days before Christmas, the Hammers ran out 2-0 victors courtesy of a six-minute blitz. However, a run of three draws in the Premier League have stifled David Moyes’ men and a loss here will see their hosts leapfrog them in the table.

United are still the lowest scorers in the top 10 but there have been signs over recent weeks that the Red Devils are finally starting to click in the final third. A win here will see them move up to sixth and all of a sudden, things wouldn’t be looking quite as bad for Erik Ten Hag and his side.

Top of the table clash

Arsenal welcome Liverpool to the Emirates on Sunday looking to cut the gap at the top down to two points. The Gunners have performed well against the Reds in the two clashes so far this season.

They have dominated the first half in both ties but they weren’t able to truly capitalise and this kept the door ajar for Jürgen Klopp’s side. The league leaders finished the game at Anfield in control and won the FA Cup tie at the Emirates late on. Mikel Arteta will no doubt be looking to right a few wrongs when the two face off again.

The hosts have won back to back games in the Premier League with their attackers finding their feet.

Liverpool are in good form though as well and have scored four goals in each of their last three Premier League outings. This game has the potential to be one of the best of the season. It doesn’t make or break their title hopes but a win here for either side lands an invaluable blow on the other.

Manchester City are mounting their challenge

Manchester City have been relentless and remorseless over recent weeks, even without the goalscoring sensation known as Erling Haaland. The return of Kevin De Bruyne has given the champions an extra boost and they are just racking up the wins. Depending on what happens at the Emirates, Pep Guardiola’s men may have the chance to move within two points of top spot with a game in hand if they beat Brentford on Monday night.

The Bees suffered a 3-2 loss to Spurs in midweek despite taking an early lead. Thomas Frank’s side are struggling to keep clean sheets and this could get messy if they aren’t careful against a rampant Man City team.

Ivan Toney is making up for lost time with two goals in two appearances, and he’s caused City problems in the past. Maybe he’s one to keep an eye on in this clash.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

Hakan Calhanoglu: Proving himself as Inter’s first choice regista

Hakan Çalhanoğlu has long been a divisive figure in Milan. After crossing the club-divide between city rivals Milan and Inter in 2021, there has been certain doubts cast over the now-Nerazzurri midfielder. But Çalhanoğlu has continued to dismiss those question marks – thriving in a new role under Simone Inzaghi.

By Luke Bissett

“He [Çalhanoğlu] is currently the second-best defensive midfielder in the world behind Rodri,” claimed former Milan defender Alessandro Costacurta last month. High praise indeed for the Turkish international. The comments may have sparked somewhat of a debate throughout Italy, yet few can argue just how big of an impact Çalhanoğlu has had on this swashbuckling Inter side.

The 29-year-old was predominantly used as an attacking midfielder upon joining the Nerazzurri on a free transfer in the summer of 2021, and instantly became a key player for Inzaghi. The midfielder scored 8 goals and provided 12 assists across 46 appearances in his first season at the club – forming an impressive midfield trident with Marcelo Brozović and Nicolo Barella.

Çalhanoğlu was typically deployed as the most advanced of the trio and afforded much greater attacking freedom compared to his midfield counterparts. This enabled the Turk to act as the link between midfield and Inter’s attack, picking up pockets in the left half-spaces of the pitch. However, an injury to Brozović in September 2022 forced Inzaghi to tweak the framework of the side. The Inter boss opted to drop Çalhanoğlu deeper into the No. 6 role as cover for the Croatian midfielder. And it’s a decision that worked to almighty effect.

29-year-old Çalhanoğlu has been given a new lease of life at the base of the Inter midfield – operating as a deep lying playmaker and being considerably more involved within the side’s build up. The midfielder instantly excelled in his new role and played a key role as the Nerazzurri advanced to the final of last season’s Champions League. Brozović was even unable to dislodge him from the side after returning from injury. This ultimately gave the Inter hierarchy the green light to sell the Croatian midfielder to Saudi side Al-Nassr last summer with full confidence in Çalhanoğlu as the first choice ‘regista’.

Çalhanoğlu dropping into the deeper role has also given Inter much greater attacking impetus, allowing Inzaghi to use Henrikh Mkhitaryan in the more advanced midfield position within his 3-5-2 system. The Nerazzurri have scored 50 goals in Serie A this season, the most of any side in the division. Çalhanoğlu plays an integral role in the side’s build up, always looking to collect the ball from the centre-backs before finding a forward pass. In fact, only Monza’s Matteo Pessina (1199) has completed more passes than Çalhanoğlu in Serie A this term (1155).

The Turkish midfielder floats ahead of the back-line – offering a constant option for the central defenders to progress the ball and bypass the opposition’s press. Çalhanoğlu then looks to kick-start attacks via vertical passes between the lines. The 29-year-old is extremely effective with the ball and is continuously on the move to receive the ball. Impressively, Çalhanoğlu has had the third-most touches of any player in the Italian top-flight this season (1567).

He is also very adept at playing accurate passes over a range of distances, be it recycling the ball through short passes or picking out a teammate in space via accurate long balls. The 29-year-old’s 21 successful switches is the most of any player in Serie A this campaign. One of the biggest factors that has enabled him to seamlessly slot into the defensive midfield role is his decision-making skills – knowing what type of pass to play to maintain possession. Indeed, he has played more possessional passes than any other player in Serie A across 2023-24 (1357).

He is also one of the most renowned set piece takers in European football and poses an enormous threat from dead ball situations. He has scored seven penalties in the league this season – the outright most of any player across the big five leagues. Çalhanoğlu’s technical ability gives him the ability to fashion chances out of nothing, and he has played 127 passes into the box, which is the third most among midfielders in Serie A this season. He has also created 19 chances from set pieces in Serie A this campaign, the third-most in the league.

Çalhanoğlu possesses an emphatic strike and certainly does not shy away from attempting the spectacular. The midfielder has arguably even competed in his own ‘goal of the season’ competition in years gone past with his trademark ferocious long-distance strikes. He has taken more shots from outside the box than any other Serie A player this term (30). Despite his more withdrawn role, Çalhanoğlu has continued to be influential in the final third and been directly involved in 12 Serie A goals in 2023-24, the most of any midfielder in the division. He also ranks fifth for Expected Assists (3.84) and sixth for Expected Goals (7.12) in the Italian top-tier, showcasing just how important he is to Inter’s attack.

Inter have enjoyed a terrific season thus far and sit top of the Serie A table with 54 points from their opening 21 games. It is in fact the Nerazzurri’s second-best ever points tally at this stage of a campaign, after only 2006-07 (57 points at this stage). They are also currently just a point ahead of rivals Juventus in the standings while boasting a game in hand and have the chance to extend their lead even further, as they host the Old Lady in the Derby d’Italia this weekend.

Juventus will be all too aware of the almighty task that lies ahead in the derby on Sunday evening with Inter unbeaten in their last 15 matches in Serie A. And it will be certainly clear if they are to have any chance of stopping the Nerazzurri, they will most likely have to stop Çalhanoğlu first.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every Inter match live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

What’s gone wrong at Selhurst Park this season?

Despite defeating bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United 3-2 in a dramatic Premier League clash on home soil in midweek, sizeable problems still exist for Crystal Palace this campaign.

Heading into February, the Eagles sit just six points above the bottom three and with a number of those sides beneath them beginning to string together some important results, manager Roy Hodgson remains under serious pressure at Selhurst Park.

By Nathan Evans

Let’s face it, if you polled 1000 neutral football fans about which team they enjoy watching the most in the Premier League, you probably wouldn’t be surprised to see Palace rank fairly low on that list. In truth, there’s a number of reasons for that, not least the fact that even Palace fans would argue that their side have for a long time now, failed to play the most exhilarating football.

Understandably, that starts with manager Roy Hodgson. When it was first announced that he would be returning to Selhurst Park in March 2023, his reappointment wasn’t exactly met with much fanfare, especially as it bookended Patrick Vieira’s rein which, at first, seemed like it was finally going to shift the focus to creating a more exciting system of play for fans to watch.

The Frenchman ultimately failed in his overall mission and the 76-year-old veteran came in, got the job done, and Palace enjoyed a great run to end their season with a mid-table finish. This time around, though, things are proving to be a little bit different.

With Palace struggling to string results together, they begin the second half of the campaign in a somewhat precarious position, sitting just six points above the relegation zone. A number of recent losses have been greeted by a chorus of boos from the Palace faithful, and when you assess the footage and trawl through the statistics, it’s really not difficult to see why they are frustrated with the current situation unfolding at the club.

Taking just six wins through 22 matches to date, the South London outfit have struggled throughout this season. With a -11 goal difference to boot, it’s been a case of not scoring enough at one end, whilst also struggling to keep the ball out of the net at the other.

As of the start of February, Hodgson’s side have recorded 260 shots in total, with 91 of those on target, both figures ranking them 14^th in the competition. The Eagles also rank 15^th in both goals scored (25) and for combined xG (26.41), the second figure proving only greater than the current bottom three – which is understandable following promotions – and Nottingham Forest. Their 43% average possession is additionally down on last season, which explains Palace’s relative lack of control through large chunks of matches this term, which has also been a bugbear for supporters.

The downturn in the club’s attacking output is best highlighted when comparing this season to the final ten games of last term when Hodgson arrived back at Selhurst Park. During his run at the back end of the last campaign, Palace averaged 1.8 goals per match, whilst this season, that figure sits at 1.1. Maybe losing talisman Wilfried Zaha to Galatasaray in the summer was a big part of that, but there’s other reasons to explain why Palace are being stifled in attack.

Arguably the main problem stems from Hodgson’s main set-up, a 4-3-3 – or sometimes 4-2-3-1 – system which is rigid in form and allows little creative freedom from position to position, especially in central midfield. In fact, he’s started 30 of his Premier League matches during his second spell at the club with that formation, only switching to a five-at-the-back twice, recently, against Manchester City and Arsenal, with little reward. In simple terms, with little change on a game-to-game basis in terms of player roles or personnel rotation, it’s become far too predictable overall, something which obviously only aids the opposition in their preparation for facing Palace.

There’s also defensive concerns compared to last season, with Palace conceding 36 goals across their 22 outings – a figure only better than six other sides in the division. Amongst them are Brighton and Bournemouth but with the pair offering more from an attacking standpoint, they can offset their defensive troubles, unlike Palace at present.

In terms of personnel on the pitch, there’s additionally the unusual problem at Palace that seemingly their biggest success is also their biggest fault at present, as a complete overreliance on key duo Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise could prove a disaster for them if either sustain a lengthy injury spell in the second half of the season. Similar has been seen with the current injury to star midfielder Cheick Doucouré, who’s time on the sidelines has certainly emphasised just how important and integral his presence is to the way that Palace operate.

Over the past couple of seasons, Eze has developed into the heartbeat of this Palace side, with his skillful approach helping him to stand out as one of the Premier League’s most fun and engaging players to watch, both for Palace fans and for neutral viewers. That’s similarly the case for Olise, who nearly made the move across London to Stamford Bridge not too long ago.

In the Premier League this season, the pair have combined to score 11 of Palace’s 25 goals overall. Olise’s nine direct goal contributions is the highest at the club in the league, whilst Eze has had the most shots on target per 90 (1.5), successful dribbles per 90 (3.3) and chances created (33). If either are sidelined in the coming months – which has unfortunately been the case before – then Palace could find themselves firmly in a relegation battle come the end of the season.

The club’s overall recruitment in recent seasons has also seemed a bit wayward, but one huge positive to come out of the winter transfer window was their acquisition of midfielder Adam Wharton from Blackburn Rovers. Still only 19-years-old, Palace have reportedly spent around £20 million on a player that has been viewed by many this season as the best young player in the Championship, and given that the Eagles have apparently beaten ‘bigger’ clubs to his signature, that could prove an incredibly shrewd bit of business in the long-term.

The majority of Palace fans will likely hope that with that capture, the club’s board are now looking to shift their transfer focus going forward on the whole, engaging in a system in which they sign youngsters with plenty of potential before giving them the playing time necessary to develop. That, in a nutshell, has been one of Palace supporters’ other biggest gripes during Hodgson’s second reign at the club. Despite possessing some fantastic talents within their academy, few have seen minutes on the pitch for the first team, due to a lack of rotation, and what is likely a lack of trust.

Whether Roy Hodgson stays at Selhurst Park until the end of the 2023/24 season remains to be seen, but whether he does or not, Crystal Palace have a lot of work to do both on and off the field in the coming months to make sure that they remain a Premier League outfit for the foreseeable future.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every Premier League game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2024

FIVE games to follow this weekend: Arsenal vs. Liverpool, Derby d’Italia, Madrid Derby, and more

In this weekend preview we summarise the best five games to follow on your match feed. And make a couple of suggestions for matches that you may otherwise miss.

By Bill Biss

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Five points and two places separate these two Premier League giants ahead of Sunday’s showdown at the Emirates. Liverpool are sitting pretty at the top of the table, a position they reinforced with a 4-1 thrashing of Chelsea in midweek, a game in which academy product Conor Bradley put in another top performance in what has been a breakthrough month for the young right-back.

Arsenal won too, 2-1 at Nottingham Forest, a result that backed up the 5-0 hammering that the Gunners dished out to Crystal Palace last weekend. And perhaps that signals the end of a slightly dodgy patch of form that saw the club go winless in four over Christmas.

Two of those games did, of course, come against Liverpool. There was the 1-1 draw at Anfield at the beginning of the festive period, and then, there was the FA Cup Third Round tie that Liverpool won 2-0, at the Emirates, one week in to January. In fact, Arsenal have only won one of their last nine meetings with the Reds, a record Mikel Arteta will no doubt be keen to improve upon.

Both sides have kept a league-high eight clean sheets this season but Liverpool have been out-gunning the Gunners, averaging 2.3 goals per game to Arsenal’s 2.0.

🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter vs. Juventus

The job of this article is often simply to hype the games coming up at the weekend, but this match, perhaps more than any of the others listed this week, shouldn’t be missed. The Derby d’Italia, Serie A’s biggest traditional rivalry sees the country’s two most successful sides lock horns once again. And this time, the game falls as Inter and Juventus sit first and second in the league.

Juventus are unbeaten in 19 games, while Inter have lost just one of their last 23 competitive fixtures. Both have only been beaten once in the league this season, and both have a fantastic defensive record – Inter conceding at a rate of 0.5 goals per game to Juve’s slightly worse(!) 0.6 goals per game.

So does something have to give at the San Siro on Sunday? Or is a draw more likely? In previous seasons, a draw would probably be the most obvious result but there is something different about Inter this time around. Yes, Simone Inzaghi led them to the Champions League Final last season but if anything, they’ve been more dominant during this campaign, winning their third straight Supercoppa in January, and averaging a league-high 2.4 goals scored per game.

Inter hold a one point advantage in the table. But they do have a game in hand. So whatever happens, the result will be critical in the race for the Scudetto.

🇪🇸 LaLiga: Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid

If you thought Arsenal and Liverpool had played each other a lot recently, that’s nothing compared to the two Madrid clubs, with this Sunday’s clash set to be the third Derby in the space of 25 days. And if this game proves to be even half as good as the previous two fixtures, we’re in for a treat.

First, there was the eight-goal thriller in the semi-finals of the Supercopa, played in Saudi Arabia, and won by Real Madrid. The lead exchanged hands three times in that game; a late Dani Carvajal equaliser forcing extra-time, with the score tied at 3-3. The sides were only separated by two Madrid goals at the death.

Atlético got swift revenge, though, taking the honours in a Copa Del Rey Round of 16 clash that was almost as high-scoring. Again, a late-ish leveller from Madrid took the game in to extra-time, but on this occasion, Diego Simeone’s side powered through – the inspired Antoine Griezmann once again proving influential as he scored one of their two goals during the additional 30 minutes.

Back in the league, Real Madrid appear to be in a closely fought title race with Girona. In midweek, Carlo Ancelotti watched his team win their game in hand, 2-0 at Getafe, to move two points clear of their unlikely rivals at the top of the table. They now sit 10 points above Atlético, who are the next best placed side in third, with Barcelona level on points with them in fourth. Atlético have won all four of the games they’ve played since the Derby win, conceding just once in process.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Bayern vs. Gladbach

In Germany, we’ve quite rightly been putting a lot of focus on unbeaten leaders Leverkusen in recent weeks, so we thought it was time to turn our attention to the chasers, Bayern Munich. Trailing by two points, despite the goals of Harry Kane, who has 23 in just 19 Bundesliga games, the Bavarian club face Borussia Mönchengladbach on Saturday afternoon.

Gladbach have been Bayern’s bogey side in recent seasons. September’s win in the reverse fixture was Bayern’s first over Die Fohlen since May 2021, seven meetings ago. In the interim period Gladbach had won twice at the Allianz Arena, and racked up 5-0 and 3-2 wins on their own ground.

This season however, Gladbach have struggled and they start the weekend sat 12th in the table. Under former Leverkusen boss Geraldo Seoane they have won only five times in the league this season but they did hold the aforementioned league leaders to a 0-0 draw last weekend, a result that will have pleased Bayern, with Leverkusen dropping points for just the fourth time since August.

For their part, Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen face bottom side Darmstadt in a fixture that is being played at the same time as the meeting between Bayern and Gladbach.

🇳🇱 Eredivisie: Ajax vs. PSV Eindhoven

If Leverkusen have been dominating the news in Germany, PSV Eindhoven have been making similar amounts of headlines in the Netherlands, where they currently sit 12 points clear having won 18 and drawn one of their 19 games so far.

In fact, that might not be true, simply because Ajax’s disastrous start to the season probably generated even more press coverage than the form of Peter Bosz’s PSV. After winning 4-1 on the opening day of the season, the Amsterdam giants didn’t win another league game until November. They were even flirting with the relegation zone, something virtually unheard of throughout their history!

But, thankfully for them, they do appear to have turned a corner since the appointment of interim head coach John van ‘t Schip in October. Ajax are now back up to a more respectable fifth place in the Eredivisie table and they’ve won all three of the games played since the winter break, albeit they’ve conceded five goals during that run, while scoring 11 of their own!

PSV have simply been on another level. They didn’t drop a point until mid-January and they’ve only lost two competitive games across all competitions this season – once, to Arsenal, in the Champions League, and to Feyenoord in last week’s KNVB Cup Round of 16 tie. In all areas of the pitch, they’ve dominated the league – they’ve scored as many goals away from home as they have at home (31 goals apiece) and they’ve conceded just eight times in 19 games (only three of those coming in their nine away games).

Plus two suggestions from the ongoing international tournaments, as we reach the quarter-final stages

🏆 AFCON 2023: Mali vs. Ivory Coast

Saturday sees the third and fourth quarter-finals take place at the Africa Cup of Nations, but our focus will be on the hosts, who take on Mali in the day’s early kick-off.

Despite everything – losing to Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea in the group stages, sacking their coach, finishing as the fourth best third placed side, then having to face holders Senegal in the Round of 16 – Ivory Coast are still in the competition! And they may have finally found a way to win, having successfully contained an in-form Senegalese side on Monday night. Albeit, they had to do it the hard way, with Frank Kessié coming off the bench to score the late penalty that took the game to extra-time, before then also scoring the decisive spot kick in the ensuing penalty shootout.

Mali, in contrast have posted some impressive results to reach this stage. They conceded just once in the group stages, beating South Africa, and drawing with Tunisia and Namibia. They then beat Burkina Faso, who were semi-finalists in the 2021 finals.

🏆 Asian Cup 2023: Iran vs. Japan

Over in Qatar, we’ve also reached the quarter-finals in the Asian Cup. While not as unpredictable as the AFCON, where none of the last eight reached the same stage at the previous finals, the draw is relatively open for one of Asia’s footballing powerhouses to find their form and truly dominate the tournament.

The winners of Saturday’s meeting between Iran and pre-tournament favourites Japan would be a good bet for the nation that could go on and do that. The Samurai Blue have underperformed so far, but they looked a little more like their fluent selves in beating Bahrain 3-1, in the Round of 16.

For their part, Iran needed penalties to see off Syria in the last round, and they’ll have to play Japan without one of their star players. Porto forward Mehdi Taremi was sent off for two yellow card offences in that game and is now suspended.

Check out our latest review from the Asian Cup for a wider look at the quarter-finals.

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Cover Image from IMAGO

Feb

2024

Transfer of the Week: Juventus hoping to add a spark in midfield with Carlos Alcaraz

Over the course of the January transfer window, we will take a closer look at the best of the week’s business with our ‘Transfer of the Week’ columns. To round us off, we will take a look at Carlos Alcaraz’s move to Juventus in the last days of the window.

By Neel Shelat

Juventus are rather exceeding expectations so far this season as they find themselves right on the coattails of Serie A leaders Inter, despite Massimiliano Allegri toning down pre-season optimism by making it clear that the Old Lady’s realistic goal was a top-four finish and not the title.

While many of the other contenders such as defending champions Napoli and Milan have looked disappointing, to different degrees, Juventus have managed to grind out result after result despite not playing the most attractive brand of football. So, they will head into this weekend’s potentially decisive Derby d’Italia aiming to extend their unbeaten run to 20 matches.

Interestingly, out of the six times Juve have dropped points this season, half have come against teams in the bottom half of the table, including two relegation battlers. The Bianconeri’s defence-first playing style means that they can comfortably hold their own against the big hitters, but can find themselves struggling against teams that also look to sit deep and let them have the ball.

Part of the reason behind this is the profiles in their squad as well as the formation they use. Allegri’s favoured 3-5-2 shape, combined with Juventus’ lack of attacking midfielders, has left them heavily reliant on their two forwards to deal the damage up front.

The only player besides Dušan Vlahović and Federico Chiesa with more than five goal involvements is midfielder Adrien Rabiot, but he does not really solve the problem we previously outlined. Five of his six goal involvements have come against Roma, Lazio, Monza, and Lecce, who are all sides that can take attacking impetus if need be.

Of course, it is never wise to do a lot of business in January so you cannot plan a squad overhaul in this window. However, even one or two additions to a squad can help in strengthening it. With that in mind, the one player profile Juventus needed above all else was a playmaking midfielder who could provide a spark to break down low blocks.

Having understood that, it is easy to see why they went for Carlos Alcaraz.

The one aspect this radar chart might leave some people questioning is his chance creation, but that should not be a worry either. His time playing for a relegation-battling team in the Premier League would have brought his average down, but the main thing to note is that the Argentine midfielder focuses on high-quality chance creation more than high-volume chance creation. His average of 0.10 xA per key pass underscores this.

Alcaraz can help break down defences in many more ways besides chance creation. Another new dimension he can add to Juventus’ midfield is his dribbling threat, as he has always loved to pick the ball up and drive at defenders. In his senior career overall, he has averaged close to 4 attempted take-ons per 90.

The 21-year-old midfielder is also a very willing shot-taker who is never afraid to have a pop from range. The fact that he does not score as much as he should considering the number of shots he takes should generally be viewed as a weakness, but it is not quite so bad against low blocks when such potshots can end up creating better opportunities through deflections, rebounds and such.

While all of these attacking qualities will prove very useful to Juventus, they would be meaningless if Alcaraz could not put in a good defensive shift too because that is a core demand in Allegri’s team. The ex-Racing Club man absolutely fits the bill in this regard as he is a very willing off-ball worker and quite strong in duels, so this cements him as a suitable fit in Juventus’ midfield.

In the current Bianconeri squad, the only player of a similar profile is Fabio Miretti. The 20-year-old Italian midfielder was quite a highly-rated talent coming through the academy, but he has not had the best of seasons this term with just one goal and one assist to his name in the league. The new addition to the squad does not look like good news for Miretti, but the Argentine midfielder seems a more sure bet of success for Juventus.

Alcaraz has played in three different leagues in the last three years, starting with the Liga Professional for Racing Club before moving to English Premier League club Southampton, who were then relegated to the Championship. Having excelled in each of them, it is reasonable to expect him to quickly adapt to life in Serie A and make an instant impact on Juventus’ title challenge.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

Premier League Team of the Week: Matchday 22

The FotMob Premier League Team of the Week is dominated by a handful of teams with Arsenal, Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Luton Town all having multiple players in the XI. But who makes the Matchday 22 team and why?

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

Goalkeeper: Jordan Pickford

Pickford was a busy shot-stopper as Everton claimed a point off of Fulham during the mid-week round of fixtures. The point wasn’t enough to keep the Toffees outside of the relegation zone but Pickford certainly played his part in giving Sean Dyche’s men the best opportunity of winning all three points.

The England No. 1 made five saves on his way to an 8.4 FotMob rating. He was also fairly accurate in possession, finding a teammate with 70% of his passes in general while completing over half of his long passes.

Right-Back: Conor Bradley

The young Liverpool full-back put on a show at Anfield. With Trent Alexander-Arnold back in the first team picture, there was an expectation that the 20-year-old would drop to the bench for the visit of Chelsea. Jürgen Klopp stuck with the Northern Ireland international though, and his faith was repaid. The No. 84 scored his first goal for the Reds and assisted two others in the 4-1 demolition of the Blues as Liverpool maintained their five-point lead at the summit. The 9.2 FotMob rating was more than deserved.

Centre-Back: Fabian Schär

Schär played a pivotal role in the capitulation of Fortress Villa Park. The Swiss centre-back scored twice in quick succession to help Newcastle United claim a much-needed away victory while also bringing Aston Villa’s 17-match unbeaten run at home to an end.

The 32-year-old also finished the game with a pass success rate of 79% and also made seven clearances as well as making three blocks in the 3-1 win for the Magpies.

Centre-Back: Gabriel Osho

Osho was a juggernaut for Luton in their surprise 4-0 win over Brighton. The centre-back was composed on the ball up against one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League. He found a teammate with 76% of his attempted passes. He won 100% of his tackles, recovered the ball on 14 occasions and won five of his eight ground duels as the Hatters kept an unlikely clean sheet.

Left-Back: Oleksandr Zinchenkho

The Arsenal left-back was at his brilliant best as the Gunners claimed all three points against Nottingham Forest. The former Manchester City man assisted Gabriel Jesus for the opener. It was one of four chances he created at the City Ground. He also attempted 107 passes and found a teammate 93% of the time. The Ukraine international also finished with a 100% success rate in dribbles and tackles.

Midfield: Michael Olise

Olise was, yet again, the match-winner for Roy Hodgson’s men. The 22-year-old assisted both goals for Eze before scoring what tuned out to be the winner against Sheffield United. The former Reading attacker has been a revelation this season and will continue to be linked with a move away from Selhurst Park if he keeps on performing at this level. He was also involved in 15 duels and made seven recoveries before being substituted off.

Midfield: Rodri

Kevin De Bruyne may be back and Julián Álvarez may be the one catching the eye with his goals, but Rodri continues to be the main man for this Manchester City side. He attempted 113 passes against Burnley and found the back of the net, scoring the all-important third goal to really kill the game off. He won 100% of his tackles and won nine of his 11 duels as the reigning champions kept pace at the top.

Midfield: Eberechi Eze

Eze was the difference-maker for Crystal Palace in the 3-2 win over Sheffield United. The versatile midfielder netted twice while also creating two chances for teammates at Selhurst Park. He was successful with 75% of his attempted dribbles while winning five of his eight duels and 100% of his tackles. The 25-year-old levelled things up on two occasions for the Eagles and they then went on to claim all three points.

Attack: Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel Jesus put on a clinic at the City Ground. The Brazil international had six shots, created two chances, scored a goal and assisted what turned out to be the winner as Arsenal kept the pressure on Liverpool. The 26-year-old also attempted five dribbles and involved himself in 13 duels to round off an eye-catching, all-round performance.

Attack: Elijah Adeyabo

Adebayo’s FotMob rating of 9.6 was the highest of the week. The 26-year-old forward netted a hat-trick in Luton’s unforgettable 4-0 win over Brighton. The powerhouse forward also created one chance, he attempted seven dribbles and involved himself in 10 duels. Adebayo is now on eight goals for the season having appeared in just 982 Premier League minutes.

Attack: Luis Díaz

Luis Díaz continues to go under the radar. The focus has been on Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez in the absence of Mohamed Salah over recent weeks but the Colombia international chipped in with a goal and an assist in the 4-1 win over Chelsea. On the night, he created two chances, had three shots, 12 touches in the opposition penalty area and won five of his six ground duels. He ticked all of the boxes for the Reds – he was a goal threat, a creator and a grafter.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

Premier League Review: Midweek Matchday 22

It is becoming the norm now, isn’t it? The Premier League just delivers goals and drama. There’s not much time to stew on what happened across matchday 22 with matchday 23 just around the corner, but here’s a look at some of the biggest talking points across the mid-week fixtures.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

The Gabriel Jesus show

Arsenal kept the pressure on both Manchester City and Liverpool with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest at the City Ground on Tuesday evening. The Gunners huffed and puffed in the first half but couldn’t find a way past former goalkeeper Matt Turner despite having 81% possession and nine shots.

The visitors ramped things up in the second half and scored two goals in the space of seven minutes just after the hour mark to essentially take the game away from the hosts. Gabriel Jesus scored the opener from a difficult angle, it was one of his six efforts on the night. He also assisted Bukayo Saka as Arsenal doubled their lead.

Jesus was at his brilliant best for Mikel Arteta’s side, creating two chances in total, having 14 touches in the opposition’s box and completing three of his five attempted dribbles. He also won seven of his 13 duels to round off an eye-catching display.

Taiwo Awoniyi made it an interesting final few minutes when he capitalised on a rare William Saliba error to halve the deficit but Arsenal held on for an important three points.

Luton run riot

Heading into their game against Luton, Brighton had been blowing hot and cold for weeks. A draw with Crystal Palace was followed up with a 4-2 win over Tottenham. They drew 0-0 with West Ham before trouncing Stoke City 4-2 in the FA Cup. They then put another draw, this time with Wolves, behind them to dismantle Sheffield United 5-2 in the FA Cup.

Roberto De Zerbi would’ve viewed a trip to Kenilworth Road as a chance to build momentum. If he did, he was proven emphatically wrong with Luton running out 4-0 winners in one of the shock results of the season.

The Hatters had a 2-0 lead within three minutes and the Seagulls just couldn’t recover. Elijah Adebayo finished the game with a hat-trick as the hosts peppered the Brighton goal, outshooting their opponents 18-9. Rob Edwards’ men racked up an Expected Goals total of over 3.2 while limiting Brighton to just 0.94.

They truly deserved all three points in what was one of the most dominant showings of the campaign. The win lifted Luton out of the relegation zone and into 17th. They are now a point ahead of Everton with a game in hand.

Fortress Villa Park falls

Aston Villa were on a 17-match unbeaten run at Villa Park. The Villans had the best home record in the Premier League this term having taken 28 points from 30 matches. They hosted an inconsistent Newcastle United side on Wednesday evening. Eddie Howe’s men haven’t travelled well at all this season yet they found themselves 2-0 up at the break courtesy of a Fabian Schär double.

Alex Moreno then scored an own goal just after half-time and though Ollie Watkins got one back for the hosts, they weren’t able to use that as a platform for what would’ve been a remarkable comeback.

This wasn’t a smash-and-grab, though the Magpies did rely on set pieces. The away side finished the game with a considerably higher Expected Goals total (2.63 to 1.46) and carved out more big chances (five to three).

Villa have now won just one of their last five in the Premier League. This form has seen them drop to fifth in the table. The win for Newcastle lifts them into eighth.

Rampant Reds

For the third successive Premier League match, Liverpool scored four goals. This time, in a 4-1 win over Chelsea. On another day, the Reds could’ve found the back of the net on six or seven occasions on Wednesday evening.

Darwin Núñez hit the woodwork on four occasions while Đorđe Petrović made a number of fine saves to keep the scoreline down. Jürgen Klopp’s men were under pressure following Arsenal’s win over Nottingham Forest yet they played as a team without fear, suffocating the away side with the highest of high presses.

Conor Bradley was once again the star of the show, assisting twice and scoring his first goal for the Merseyside club. Luis Díaz rounded off the rout but not before Christopher Nkunku, off the bench for Chelsea, finally got off the mark for the Blues.

Madness at Molineux

Bedlam. That is probably the best way to describe the game between Manchester United and Wolves on Thursday evening.

Marcus Rashford scored after just five minutes and Rasmus Højlund doubled the lead before we even had 30 minutes on the clock. A controversial penalty decision in the 70th minute allowed Pablo Sarabia to get back into the game only for the inevitable Scott McTominay to restore United’s two-goal advantage.

Wolves pushed on and skipper Max Kilman got them back into the game in the 85th minute before Pedro Neto grabbed an equaliser in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Wolves had done the unthinkable, only for United to steal it moments later. Kobbie Mainoo showed great composure to curl the ball past José Sá in the 97th minute.

United probably deserved the win if we’re being honest, but Wolves showed great resolve to get back into the game.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Feb

2024

FC Barcelona and the to-do list awaiting Xavi replacement as head coach

If Barcelona fans were hoping Xavi Hernández might “do a Jürgen Klopp”, this probably wasn’t what they had in mind. While the Catalan boss led his team to the title in LaLiga a year ago, the 2023/24 campaign has been far less impressive and Xavi has now opted to mirror the Liverpool coach not by challenging for honours on multiple fronts, but by offering his resignation and announcing his intent to step down at season’s end.

By Karl Matchett

A full 8 points off the lead behind Girona domestically and facing a tough Champions League test against Napoli in the round of 16, Barca have a tricky last few months under Xavi ahead of them – meaning there will be much for the new manager, whoever it turns out to be, to sort out across the summer and beyond. Here we look at the biggest tasks on hand for one of the biggest jobs in Europe…

Fix an unstable defence

In 22/23, while far from a free-flowing juggernaut going forward, Barcelona conceded just 20 LaLiga goals all season long at the other end – their solidity was the basis for their championship charge. Barely past the halfway point this year, they’ve already conceded just shy of 50% more than that – 29 in 21 matches.

Individual performances have played a part in this, but so too has a regularly altered back line: No player has started more than a dozen league games for them at centre-back and one of their quartet, Iñigo Martínez, has picked up multiple hamstring injuries to lessen Xavi’s options.

Add in the errors which, even back in autumn, Xavi was lamenting as the weakest part of the team and it’s clear that Barcelona have issues at the back which are extremely problematic, but definitely solvable with coaching – or a change of personnel.

Robert Lewandowski’s future

At age 35 and with just eight league goals to his name this term, questions have been asked of Robert Lewandowski’s enduring ability to lead the line – as well as of his contract, which has at least one more year left to run.

Partly his inability to find the net more often can be attributed to what is a stodgy attacking plan at times, as well as a rotating cast of support members providing him with service and the team being inconsistent at best in speed of play.

But despite those flaws, there is still plenty to work with. Lewandowski has the highest individual xG tally in the league this term and it’s unusual that he has underperformed his expected goals at all, let alone by almost four.

Barcelona as a team have the league’s highest xG by a distance, they have the most shots on target per game, have won the most corners and have created the most big chances this season too – what’s missing is a clinical edge and consistency in approach play.

Lewandowski can likely still return to his best finishing level, so Barcelona should for now be more concerned over the quality of second line attackers around him, with Raphinha a good example of where perhaps mistakes have been made: he has the league’s highest xA per 90 and is third for xG+xA per 90, yet has started only eight LaLiga games.

Managing young talent

This must not be an immediate fix for the new boss, but instead a much longer-term approach by the entire coaching team and the wider club.

Gavi, Pedro, Lamine Yamal, Alex Balde: they are excellent, genuinely class operators, but Barcelona run them into the ground as soon as their senior careers get started and end up lumbering them with ongoing injury issues.

We’ve seen it before countless times, Ansu Fati being the best recent example.

It has to stop. These young players are match-winners and should be for another decade and more, but not if Barcelona’s overuse of them is allowed to continue.

Overspending

Finally, the new boss is simply going to have to accept that, barring a massive-money sale of one of those aforementioned young stars, Barcelona simply aren’t a superpower these days – at least, not in the transfer market.

The club’s business five months ago consisted of free transfers and loan deals – plus a €3m Oriol Romeu transfer – and largely the same is almost certain to be the case this summer.

João Félix’s loan has no permanent option so a replacement is needed there, while defence and perhaps midfield depth both need attention too.

It will require patience and problem-solving from the dugout, with Deco as sporting director not so far having shown capability of unearthing regular gems, bringing in low-cost, high-quality players or constructing a team in any method other than a band-aid approach.

One big sale could help out a lot, but firstly Barcelona’s new boss will be desperately hoping they finish top four this season – and that job, at least, remains Xavi’s to take care of.

(Images from IMAGO)

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