Page 22 – The Pulse of Football

Feb

2025

Premier League to League One? What’s gone wrong at Luton Town?

With a little over half an hour gone, Luton were a goal down at Sunderland but had the perfect opportunity to pull level. A floated freekick from the right, a sprawling save from a header and there it was. A bouncing ball, an open goal, a panicked swing of a left boot. Sliding Sunderland legs surrounded Milli Alli as he absorbed what had happened, before he was remonstrating with the referee. The officials, however, had saved him. His impossible miss from one yard out, erased from the xG annals by an offside flag. A perfect encapsulation of a diabolical Luton Town campaign.

By Sanny Rudravajhala

Heading into this weekend, Luton are bottom of The Championship. For the longest time I saw their slide as a blip. ‘Rob Edwards will turn it around’, I’d tell myself and all who’d listen. ‘They can stick with him, and go again next season, especially with the Premier League parachute payments.’

From the outside looking in, it seemed quite simple but with Edwards gone, their wretched run is yet to abate. For the 307 travelling fans the Sunderland game was their 14^th winless away watch in a row. Luton’s last victory was at Kenilworth Road before Christmas. That foreboding sense of deflation is now part of the pre-match routine.

“We’re turning up expecting a defeat, and that’s sad.” Dave Gregory, presenter of the Oh When The Town Podcast, tells me.

“In the Premier League, you can have that because the players that we were playing against were world class. And the budgets and everything else, you didn’t expect to beat Arsenal and Liverpool, but we’d give them a good run. But we’re turning up now thinking ‘well, we’re just going to play the same formation. We’re going to play the same way, with no gusto, no guts.’ And I go, expecting to lose.”

It’s just over a year since Luton had their peak Premier League moment. A 4-0 demolition of Brighton, taking the lead after just 19 seconds after stealing the ball from kick-off, with Elijah Adebayo nodding home, under the lights at a ferocious Kenilworth Road. He would leave with the match ball but looking at that XI, it’s the ones that haven’t returned, that have really hit home.

“We didn’t really commit too much to the Premier League in the transfer window. The 1^st January [window] was where we could have made an impact and maybe stayed up. We had some good footballers last season. But we lost Ross Barkley, Sambi Lokonga, Chiedozie Ogbene and Gabe Osho and I think, we’re missing those players more than we thought we would.”

Diving deep on the departed

Looking at the data, Dave is spot on. Luton lost the spine of their side, and it shows. Ross Barkley arrived in Bedfordshire with his reputation in tatters. Before a failed move to Nice, he was the latest promising English midfielder to be chewed up and spat out at Chelsea. But after five goals and four Premier League assists and pulling the strings in the middle of the park and a 7.3 FotMob rating in a team finishing 18^th, it’s no surprise he’s ended up in the Champions League with Aston Villa.

Could Luton have done any more to secure Sambi Lokonga from Arsenal? Injury has hampered his impact at Sevilla but when, last May, he described joining Luton as ‘the best decision’ of his life. Perhaps they could have shelled out for the 25-year-old Belgian. But, Luton, along with my own club Bury, know all about what happens when finances aren’t under control. Whilst I’m watching my side in division nine these days, Luton had successive relegations out of the EFL entirely before their triumphant return and meteoric rise to the Premier League. Under fan ownership, the club have plans for a new stadium, but that work means that cash for new faces hasn’t been all there and that will continue even if they’re trying to re-build again if they suffer another relegation.

“It’s imperative that we stay up because all your bigger players, all those transfer records we’ve broken since being in the Premier League and coming back from it, paying £5 – 10m for a player – Luton Town have never done that up until last season. We could lose those players and then we have to re-build on a budget and a shoestring to get back up, even though we’ve got the payments from the Premier League because they’re going to be put aside for other things.”

League One beckons?

The last side to suffer the fate that Luton fans are fearing, was indeed Sunderland. It’s taken the best part of a decade for them to get the feel-good factor back. Now they’re at the right end of the second tier and dreaming of their own Premier League return. It’s a situation that Luton’s new man in the dugout can dream about, if he keeps them up.

Matt Bloomfield arrived at The Kenny off the back of a sterling second season at Wycombe Wanderers. For me, it felt like the right man at the wrong time. Bloomfield has traded a promotion push with a side where he’s a club legend to one in the mire, where he’s an unknown. His status at The Chairboys afforded him time to turn around a team that had struggled following relegation from The Championship. At Luton he has had little time so far to get his methods in to practice and their listless midweek performance in the North East shows a lot more work is needed.

“When we talk about Matt Bloomfield, has he got time to turn things around? Well, yeah, clearly. But in his first five games, he has no wins. It’s unusual for a manager to come in and not get that new manager bounce. We got some new signings in this January window and they look quite exciting, so it’s not all doom and gloom at this stage. However, it does feel like we’ve appointed a manager just in case we get relegated to League One.”

Divided we fall…

If there’s one thing that you’d say has defined Luton since their return to the EFL, it’s been that desire and fight that gets everyone on their feet. That has been lacking and it’s something Dave says, has had a massive impact on all aspects of the club.

“The togetherness has totally gone from the fans and the club. All that good work we did going into the Premier League and getting people on our side, has gone. There’s a lot of backbiting between the fans. We just don’t look like we’ve got a clue in any department. I thought the tide had turned when we had better showings against Watford and Sunderland at home, but we’ve been absolutely abysmal in every area.”

Next up is Sheffield United. I was at the reverse fixture and even then, Luton looked lost. Given where each side is, it feels like a write-off.

And then, there’s the real test. Lose in the week to a resurgent Plymouth Argyle and I cannot imagine how bad it will be at Kenilworth Road. After those two, it’s the small matter of travelling to Hertfordshire to face Watford. Two pivotal weeks for Matt Bloomfield and Luton but I’m an optimist, so let’s end on a positive: Hatters fans, imagine how you’ll feel if you’re celebrating at least back-to-back wins after victory at Vicarage Road.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the EFL Championship on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Endrick: Playing the waiting game at Real Madrid

Real Madrid faced off against Manchester City on Tuesday in a battle between the last three UEFA Champions League winners. It was a breathless, end-to-end encounter that saw Real fall behind on two occasions, only to prevail with a 3-2 victory and take a slender advantage into the second leg of the knockout round playoffs.

By Zach Lowy

Whilst Brahim Díaz and Jude Bellingham scored late goals to complete an improbable comeback in Manchester, Endrick watched on from the bench. It was the third time in his last four matches that he remained an unused substitute, and it was yet another disappointing result for a teenager whose debut season at Real Madrid hasn’t quite lived up to expectations.

Born in Taguatinga, Brazil, Endrick is the son of Douglas de Sousa Silva Ramos, who left his family when Endrick was 11 to pursue a playing career. His mother was left unemployed and homeless, forcing Endrick and his siblings to reside in an orphanage until his father returned after six months of bouncing around various small clubs in Brasília. With his parents struggling to put food on the table, Endrick vowed to achieve footballing success that had eluded his father and lift his family out of poverty.

He did just that, scoring 165 goals in 169 matches for Palmeiras’ youth teams, and prompting Palmeiras to hire Douglas as a janitor. On October 6, 2022, Endrick became the youngest player to appear for Palmeiras’ first team at 16 years, 2 months, and 16 days old; 19 days later, he became the second-youngest goalscorer in the history of the Brazilian top-flight. He scored three goals in seven appearances as Palmeiras claimed their 11th Série A title, and on December 15, he reached an agreement to join Real Madrid for €35 million and €25m in add-ons upon turning 18 in July 2024.

Endrick validated the hype in 2023 by emerging as a vital cog in Abel Ferreira’s system, a self-sufficient forward who could operate on the flanks or as a centre forward or a second striker, drop deep to receive the ball, create space for himself with his acceleration and dribbling skills, and who was becoming a nightmare for most seasoned defenders in Brazil. Endrick led Palmeiras for both Expected Goals (8.1) and goals (11) in the Brasileirão, none more important than on 1 November, when he grabbed a brace and an assist to erase a 3-0 deficit and beat Botafogo 4-3. Palmeiras moved within three points of league leaders Botafogo, and one month later, Endrick scored a goal on the final day vs. Cruzeiro as they narrowly won the championship.

The hype continued to build as Endrick became the youngest player in 57 years to play for Brazil, before scoring in friendlies against England and Spain in March. After playing in each of Brazil’s four matches in the Copa América, Endrick headed across the Atlantic and fulfilled his boyhood dream of playing for Real Madrid, where he grabbed his debut goal within 10 minutes of coming on vs. Real Valladolid. He needed just 16 minutes to open his UEFA Champions League account on September 17 with a long-distance firecracker against Stuttgart, becoming the youngest Brazilian to score in Europe’s premier competition. But when he was given his first start for Real Madrid on October 2, he failed to take advantage of the opportunity and was hauled off after 57 minutes in a 1-0 defeat to Lille. Since then, Endrick has registered just two starts and three goals – all coming in the Copa del Rey.

He’s played just 31 minutes in LaLiga since the start of December, but that hasn’t stopped him from making an impact off the bench; Endrick leads all LaLiga players for Goals per 90 (1.00) and Shots on Target per 90 (4.0), whilst he’s currently averaging 11.0 Shots per 90, more than twice as many as anyone else in Spain’s top-flight. However, it does seem that at times he’s been overly eager to impress in his limited game-time, whether that’s racing to win the ball and committing an ill-advised tackle (three bookings already) or undertaking an audacious solo dribble rather than dishing it off to a teammate. We saw this in the 88th minute of September’s Madrileño derby when, instead of passing it to the overlapping Bellingham, he wasted a 3v1 opportunity by firing an injudicious shot from 30 yards out, which trickled out for a goal kick. Seven minutes later, Ángel Correa equalised for Atlético Madrid.

However, perhaps Endrick’s biggest issue is none other than the fact that he’s competing against one of the best footballers on the planet: Kylian Mbappé.

After years of unsuccessfully pursuing the French striker, Real Madrid finally signed Mbappé to a five-year deal that, between his salary and his signing bonus, will see him accrue $36 million per season. Following a slow start to life in Spain, Mbappé is delivering the scintillating form that we’ve grown accustomed to with 23 goals in 35 appearances. He is in the prime of his career at 26 – he doesn’t have time to be gradually eased in like his 18-year-old Brazilian teammate. He’s going to start just about every match and play every minute under Carlo Ancelotti, and there’s nothing that Endrick can do about it.

For all of Ancelotti’s strengths, rotation isn’t one of them: The Italian has been reticent to deviate from his first-choice line-up or make changes to his team during matches. By the time that Ancelotti made his first substitution in the weekend’s draw to Atleti, Diego Simeone had already made four changes. By the time he made his first substitution vs. City, Pep Guardiola had already made three.

*Endrick’s LaLiga stats comparison vs. Mbappé*

“The main reason why Endrick isn’t getting more minutes is that his position is already well-covered,” stated Canal Sur Almería director Salva R. Moya. “In contrast to Raúl Asencio, who has become a starter due to the other centre backs getting injured, Endrick has a lot of competition to deal with. He’s competing with Mbappé for a starting spot, but he’s also competing with the likes of Brahim Díaz and Luka Modrić for the opportunity to come off the bench. It’s complicated for him, but it’s also to be expected as a young kid from Brazil who is coming to fulfill a role like his predecessor Joselu, who began as a benchwarmer and gradually started to impact games more. This has been a transitional season for Endrick, but I have no doubt that he will have more protagonism next season, whether or not Ancelotti stays.”

These past few months have pumped the brakes on Endrick’s meteoric rise for club and country and forced him to play the waiting game. So far, he has shown no inclination to depart on loan and push for more minutes, instead preferring to buckle down and patiently bide his time in the Spanish capital. However, with Mbappé locking down a starting spot in attack, Endrick could very well be forced to depart Madrid in order to secure regular minutes ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow all the action from LaLiga on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

FPL tips from the reigning champ: GW25

Get ahead of the Group Chat thanks to our new regular column from FPL expert Jonas Sand Låbakk.

By Graham Ruthven, in conversation with Jonas Sand Låbakk

Introducing our expert

Jonas is a 21 year old student who, like FotMob, hails from Norway. He was Fantasy Premier League champion for the 2023/24 season, finishing ahead of 11 million other managers. So who better to provide expert advice?

Read his expert advice every week.

*Don’t forget the FPL deadline for this round – make your transfers and get your team sorted before 18:30 GMT on Friday 14 February*

The Eye Test vs. The Stats

Bournemouth have been one of the biggest surprise packages of the Premier League season so far.

Indeed, Andoni Iraola’s team are flying high in the table, chasing European football from their current position of seventh. There’s just three points between Bournemouth and Chelsea in fourth place.

From a FPL point of view, this is a good time to buy Bournemouth assets with the Cherries set to face Southampton and and Wolves in the next two gameweeks. In fact, their favourable run of fixtures could stretch until GW28.

Antoine Semenyo (5.7m) has registered five goal involvements in his last five league appearances while Justin Kluivert (5.9m) and Dango Ouattara (5.1m) are also viable options. Semenyo, however, edges it due to the number of minutes he is likely to secure in the longer term.

*Semenyo’s shooting numbers per 90, Premier League 2024/25*

Bournemouth suffered a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool in GW24, but were competitive against the Premier League leaders. The Cherries are capable of holding their own against the very best.

Semenyo posed a threat against Liverpool and was a handful for Trent Alexander-Arnold. The Ghanian recorded 0.77 Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) and contributed two goals and two assists in the three matches prior to meeting the Reds.

Averaging 4.1 shots per game, Semenyo is a prolific shooter. This ranks him above any other player receiving regular minutes in the Premier League this season (see graphic above).

Southampton face the Cherries in GW25 with the Saints the worst defensive team in the division, conceding an average of 2.3 goals per game this season. Wolves, who have the third-worst defensive record, await in GW26. Bournemouth assets could be extremely valuable.

Ollie Watkins (8.9m) should be another player on your radar ahead of a double gameweek in GW25.

Short term, Aston Villa have some challenging fixtures to come with games against Liverpool and Chelsea on the horizon. They will also blank in GW29 due to Liverpool playing in the Carabao Cup final.

However, Watkins could still be a good differential if you have the budget to afford him with Aston Villa at home to Ipswich Town this weekend.

This season, Watkins hasn’t reached the heights of the 2023/24 campaign when he notched 19 league goals, but the England international still has 10 goals and five assists from 12.6 xGI. He is still delivering as Villa’s first-choice centre forward.

Watkins is yellow-flagged for the GW25 match against Ipswich, meaning he has only a 75% chance of playing due to injury. Unai Emery will hopefully provide more information on the fitness of his striker in his press conference on Friday. If fit, Watkins would be a good pick for the double gameweek.

Long shot

Ethan Nwaneri (4.5m) has shown glimpses of his ability for Arsenal this season, but he might now become a key figure.

Injuries have hit the Gunners hard. Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are all sidelined at the moment, opening up a spot for Nwaneri who has caught the eye with his sporadic performances.

Nwaneri found the back of the net in the six minutes he received off the bench against Manchester City in GW24, beating Stefan Ortega with an excellent strike from outside the box. Arsenal would take another one of those this weekend.

Arsenal have two favourable fixtures upcoming with games against Leicester City and West Ham in their next gameweeks. The Gunners also have a fixture in GW29 (unlike some of their rivals) and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Nwaneri play regularly until them.

Only 0.7% of FPL managers owners have Nwaneri in their team, making the teenager a potentially valuable differential.

Upcoming games to follow

There are several interesting games worth following in GW25 from a FPL perspective.

First up is the meeting between Leicester City and Arsenal in the early kick-off on Saturday with the Gunners hoping to close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table. I expect Arsenal to perform well, making Leandro Trossard (6.8m), Nwaneri (4.5m) and Gabriel (6.3m) worth monitoring.

Southampton host Bournemouth at 3pm on the same day with the aforementioned midfielders and left back Milos Kerkez (5.0m) on my radar. Kerkez could pose an attacking threat against the basement boys.

Liverpool have a double gameweek against Wolves and Aston Villa in GW25. Both matches will be interesting to watch with the game against Wolves one that could produce some big points hauls.

Mohamed Salah (13.7m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (7.4m), Cody Gakpo (7.6m) and Virgil van Dijk (6.4m) are players to target.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2025

Premier League Preview, Matchday 25

For the first time since December, it is a level playing field in the Premier League. Liverpool and Everton played out their game in hand on Wednesday evening meaning all teams now have 14 games remaining.

By Sam McGuire

We know Liverpool have a seven point lead at the summit following the 2-2 draw at Goodison Park while the Toffees are now 10 clear of the drop zone following an upturn in form under David Moyes. So, now we know the state of play, we can look forward to the action this weekend and how it could impact things.

The Seagulls look to complete the double

Brighton stunned Chelsea in the FA Cup last weekend, coming from a goal down to knock Enzo Maresca’s side out. The two sides face off in the Premier League on Friday. The Seagulls, once again, have home advantage.

Fabian Hürzeler’s men have been consistently inconsistent this term, so it’ll be interesting to see which side turns up this evening.

The Seagulls have drawn with both Arsenal and Aston Villa and also beat Manchester United at Old Trafford. However, they lost to Everton at home and then suffered a humbling 7-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest before their 2-1 win against Chelsea last time out.

They blow hot and cold. That is why they’re mid-table. However, a win would move them to within six points of their opponents.

The Blues are another team struggling for consistency right now. Maresca’s men haven’t had the best start to 2025. In fact, this poor form bleeds into December too. Across their last 10 in all competitions, they have just three wins. And one of these arrived against Morecambe in the FA Cup.

They’re currently clinging onto the final Champions League place but competition is so fierce that they could end this weekend as low as seventh.

It is a corker of a game to kick off this weekend.

Arsenal’s injury woes worsen

Kai Havertz has been added to Arsenal’s ever-growing injury list. The versatile German attacker is expected to miss the rest of the season with a torn hamstring. The Gunners are already without Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka.

Mikel Arteta’s options are limited. But they’re still in the title race. The gap between themselves and Liverpool stands at seven points and the two teams face off in May. If Arsenal can remain within touching distance of the Reds, there’s a chance that game at Anfield could be key in where the title ends up.

To stay within touching distance, the Gunners need to be winning the bankers. The clash with Leicester City on Saturday afternoon should be viewed as a banker.

The Foxes are in dire form. Following their 3-2 win over Southampton in mid-October, Leicester have won just three of their 19 matches across all competitions.

Their last Premier League outing was a dismal 4-0 defeat to Everton. A result that saw them slip into the drop zone.

They’re two points off 17th-placed Wolves and 10 behind 16th-placed West Ham. A loss here could leave them with an uphill struggle to avoid relegation. They’re at home against Arsenal but it still should be an easy three points for Arteta and his injured squad.

The battle for a top four finish

Manchester City and Newcastle United are level on points.

A win for either side could well see them leapfrog Chelsea into a Champions League place depending on how the Blues do against Brighton on Friday. It is very much a must-not-lose for either side at the Etihad on Saturday afternoon.

And both sides have been losing recently.

Newcastle knocked Arsenal out of the Carabao Cup but have lost two of their last three in the Premier League. They fell to defeat against Fulham and were stuffed by Bournemouth at St James’ Park, losing 4-1 against the Cherries.

City, meanwhile, lost 5-1 against Arsenal in their last Premier League outing and gave up two leads against Real Madrid in the Champions League in an eventual 3-2 defeat.

Both teams need a performance on Saturday. Both need a win. Not only to strengthen their chances of a top four finish but also to weaken a rival. This should not be a 3pm kick-off. This should be getting top billing this weekend as it has the potential to be a season-ender for one of these teams.

Can Ange Postecoglou save his job?

Tottenham host Manchester United on Sunday in a game many would’ve looked at the start of the season as one that could have an impact on the Champions League places. Now, though, both teams are struggling in the bottom half of the table. Just two points separate them and a win wouldn’t lift either side into the top half.

That is how terrible things are for both teams at the minute.

Manchester United have already sacked their manager this term, replacing Erik ten Hag with Rúben Amorim. The Portuguese tactician didn’t exactly turn things around at Old Trafford but his job isn’t under threat.

Ange Postecoglou, however, should be worried. The Aussie coach has been backed in the transfer market and though injuries have had an impact on their season, his job is under threat. Spurs crashed out of the Carabao Cup despite taking a 1-0 advantage to Anfield and then they followed that up with a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

If they can’t muster a response here, in front of their home fans against an out of sorts United, his time as Tottenham boss may be coming to an abrupt end. He’s looking to save his job. Can he do it?

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Real Madrid travel to draw specialists Osasuna

It’s all going well for Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti once more. Following a midweek victory over Manchester City in the Champions League, they’re well-placed to start their usual assault on the knockout stages there – and domestically they sit top of LaLiga ahead of a trip to win-shy Osasuna.

By Karl Matchett

Always a crisis, always a way out

It’s not uncommon for headlines around Los Blancos to focus on things they’re doing badly, players they need to sign and anything else which could or should be improved, in the eyes of those commentating. But the truth is usually rather less remarkable: Real Madrid are an exceptional team, but don’t win every single game. And, the size of the club being what it is, every non-victory is held up as proof that Things Must Change. So are some of the victories, actually.

Here’s a stat to show that’s probably not really true: more teams have had a player sent off against Real Madrid in 2025, than Real Madrid have actually lost fixtures. The only sides to beat them since early December are Barcelona and Espanyol – hardly “Ancelotti out” territory, nor an example of why they need six summer reinforcements, despite what some headlines will have you believe.

Having drawn the derby last time out in the league they still lead the table by a point and have a reasonable run of league fixtures coming up – nobody in the top six in their next four – which starts at El Sadar on Saturday.

Recent form

Here’s a riddle for you: which three Spanish teams have lost fewer matches than Real Madrid (four) across all competitions in the past three months? Obviously part of the answer is easy, because it’s their next opponents. The other parts of the riddle are their last opponents, actually (Atlético Madrid, one), and Athletic Club (three). Osasuna have tasted defeat just three times too since 9 November, yet ridiculously have won only four. Seven draws in that time explain how they have only lost once more than Barcelona in LaLiga this term, yet sit ninth in the table. Real have won seven of their last nine.

Team news

Enzo Boyomo is suspended and Ante Budimir will probably miss out for Osasuna – a big blow if he does as that’s starting centre-back and striker both then out. Real Madrid are without Antonio Rüdiger, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Lucas Vázquez and David Alaba. The latter two could return at the end of this month, though Alaba has been sidelined for months so certainly won’t be rushed back.

Key player

After a slow start to the campaign, Kylian Mbappé is now behind only Robert Lewandowski (19 goals) in the scoring charts, with 16 from an xG of 15.3. He’s averaging 2.3 shots on target per 90, the best of any starter in the league, but also ranks in the top 90 per cent-plus for touches in the box, dribbles, accurate long balls and shots. All-round threat now, which you’d expect for his hype and cost.

*Mbappé player traits – just don’t ask him to track back!*

Prediction

Another three points for the visitors, in a fairly low-key game: Osasuna 1 Real Madrid 2.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Man City meet Newcastle in potentially pivotal Premier League clash

It’s a must-win match for Manchester City against Newcastle, following a difficult couple of weeks.

By Ian King

Five goals are all that separate the sides

How quickly things change. It’s only been a couple of weeks since Manchester City were BACK, but now they’re BACK IN CRISIS following a fortnight which has taken in getting their buttocks handed to them on a silver platter by Arsenal, making rather too hard work of beating Leyton Orient in the Cup, and surrendering a winning lead in the closing few minutes of their Champions League match against Real Madrid.

It’s unclear whether losing consecutive home games to Bournemouth and Fulham constitutes a CRISIS or not, but Newcastle got past Birmingham in the FA Cup following a bit of a scare and eased past Arsenal in the Carabao Cup over two legs, winning both matches comfortably. They’re separated from Manchester City in the League by goals scored only, with the teams tied on both points and goal difference.

History

These two have met at Wembley in the finals of both the FA Cup and the League Cup, with Newcastle beating City to win the FA Cup in 1955 and City beating Newcastle to win the League Cup in 1976. Newcastle’s form in the modern form of this fixture has, however, been atrocious for so long that it even predates the Abu Dhabi years. These two have met 39 times in all competitions since the start of 2006, and Newcastle have won precisely three games, two of which have come in the League Cup.

The earlier league fixture between the sides this season ended in a 1-1 draw.

Key players

Alexander Isak has been Newcastle’s starboy so far this season, with seventeen goals. He was the Premier League’s player of the month for December, having registered eight goals and two assists throughout that calendar month alone. Can Manchester City’s creaking defence cope with him? The two late goals conceded on Tuesday night certainly indicated that there are gaps that can be exploited. This could be a big game for John Stones, who will likely have his work cut out.

Team News

Jack Grealish and Manuel Akanji are fresh injury doubts for Pep Guardiola. Both were withdrawn during the Real Madrid match, while Oscar Bobb remains sidelined and Rodri won’t be back any time soon. Matheus Nunes was back on the bench on Wednesday and could return. It looks like Anthony Gordon, Dan Burn, and Sven Botman, all of whom were possible absentees for this match, will be okay for Newcastle, though Joelinton, Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles all remain injured.

Prediction

With the two teams so tight in the table and both having had patchy form of late, this is a difficult match to call. The Newcastle who beat Arsenal so convincingly in the Carabao Cup (twice!) could easily beat the Manchester City who lost to Arsenal, but the City team who breezed past Chelsea just three weeks ago could easily do the same to the Newcastle team who forgot that they had to play a second half against Fulham. Defensive wobbliness and mercurial attacking talent on both teams hints at something like a 2-2 draw.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Leicester host Arsenal in early Saturday kickoff

Rested but injury-stricken, Arsenal should still be too strong for defensively frail Leicester.

By Ian King

Contrasting form

Leicester’s brief bump, which came through beating Spurs away, came crashing back to earth with a 4-0 defeat at Everton a fortnight ago. The Spurs win had been their first since 3 December, but the Everton performance didn’t indicate that it would be repeated particularly soon, though they were unfortunate not to take Manchester United to extra-time in the FA Cup last weekend.

Arsenal, of course, continue to ride the crest of a wave in the League following their 5-1 win against Manchester City a fortnight ago. Putting five past The Erling Haaland Team made something of a mockery of all the chatter about their need for a number nine, though they were then well beaten by Newcastle in the Carabao Cup. They’re still unbeaten in the League since early November and have had a little FA Cup-related break.

History

This game is a record-breaker. When they drew 6-6 on the 21st April 1930, it set a record for the highest scoring draw in the top flight which still stands today. In more recent times, Leicester’s record against the Gunners hasn’t been so great. They’ve lost their last six in a row, although they did win four and draw one of the seven prior to that. When the two met earlier this season Arsenal eventually won 4-2, but not before losing a two-goal lead and then recovering to win in stoppage-time.

Key players

Leicester have been pretty poor up front this season, but they did score twice at The Emirates in September with both scored by a defender; James Justin. Jamie Vardy’s goal at Spurs was his first in the Premier League since the 8 December. He’s scored seven but no-one else has scored more than four. Leicester really need his goals if they’re to stay up this season.

Arsenal, meanwhile, had five different goalscorers against Manchester City, but the one of those five who drew the most attention was Myles Lewes-Skelly, whose post-goal celebration grabbed the headlines the following morning. It was his first for the club, and it came from his very first shot recorded in the Premier League! Might he have another in him this weekend?

*Myles Lewis-Skelly’s unique shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Team News

It never crisis, it crises. Kai Havertz is now reported as out for the season, joining Takehiro Tomiyasu, Ben White, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka on the Arsenal injury list.

Jamie Vardy, Jannik Vestergaard, and Victor Kristiansen may all return for Leicester following the Manchester United game, though Issahaku Fatawu and Ricardo Pereira are absent, Fatawu for the season.

Prediction

This match is third from bottom against second in the table, and there’s little to recommend Leicester being able to get a result from this one. Liverpool’s midweek draw in the final Goodison Park Merseyside Derby means that the gap will be seven rather than nine, so the chase is on for an Arsenal team who also had a bit of rest as a result of their early FA Cup elimination. A comfortable 3-0 win against a team likely to be relegated come the end of this season sounds about right.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Can Nottingham Forest reignite their European legacy?

In the books of European football history, Nottingham Forest occupy a space that feels almost mythical. For a club with such modest beginnings in the East Midlands, Forest’s journey through Europe stands as one of the most remarkable tales in football lore – a story of ambition, triumph, and the enduring belief that no dream is too big.

By David Skilling

Now, as the 2024/25 season unfolds with Forest knocking on the door of Champions League qualification, there’s a sense of history stirring, a reconnection of what once might have seemed like an impossible return.

Nottingham Forest’s rise to European prominence in the late 1970s and early 1980s is the kind of story that feels plucked from a football fairy tale. Under the management of the legendary Brian Clough, a man whose charisma and conviction could fill any room, Forest didn’t just challenge the established order – they rewrote the script entirely.

In 1979, Forest clinched their first European Cup (now the Champions League), defeating Swedish champions Malmö in a 1-0 victory at the Olympic Stadium in Munich. A year later, they defended their title against Hamburg, a powerhouse of the era, winning 1-0 in Madrid’s Santiago Bernabéu. Forest are the only football club to win the European Cup more times than their domestic league.

The squad was filled with players who believed in Clough’s philosophy of discipline, teamwork, and daring to dream big. He developed a culture focused on unity, trust, and a commitment to a system that allowed them to punch above their weight. Every player knew their role, and more importantly, they believed in it.

At a time when English clubs were beginning to dominate Europe, Forest didn’t just join the pack; they carved out their own legacy. They stood tall among football’s established powers, proving that success wasn’t reserved for clubs with long-standing European pedigrees. Their back-to-back triumphs were not flukes or fairy-tale accidents – they were the product of a well-drilled squad that embodied the essence of a true team.

Forest’s European success was a testament to the idea that football is more than just talent and resources; it’s about vision, leadership, and a culture of belief that can propel a club beyond expectations.

After those heady days, Forest’s fortunes waned. The club descended into years of domestic mediocrity, punctuated by occasional seasons of promise. Relegation from the Premier League’s inaugural season and again in the late 90s marked the beginning of a particularly dark chapter. Years in the wilderness of the Championship, and even a stint in League One, made European nights feel like ancient history. Yet, through it all, the fans remained. The City Ground, perched by the River Trent, became a symbol of resilience, the terraces echoing with chants that spoke of past glories and unyielding hope.

Fast forward to today, and Nottingham Forest is a club transformed. A strong Premier League campaign has them flirting with the prospect of European qualification. The recruitment strategy, blending seasoned professionals with hungry young talents, has given the squad a balanced edge this season. Manager Nuno Espírito Santo, much like Clough, has fostered a culture of unity and ambition. His ability to rally players and fans alike has made the City Ground a tough place for visitors once again.

Today, as the game is increasingly dominated by financial giants, Forest’s story feels more relevant than ever. In a sport where the gap between the elite and the rest continues to widen, their resurgence offers a refreshing counter-narrative. It’s a reminder that the romance of football continues, that a club rich in history, yet lacking the financial clout of the giants, can still dream of shining under Europe’s floodlights again.

*Only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded less goals than Forest this season*

Securing a Champions League spot won’t be easy. The competition in the Premier League is fierce, with the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, and Manchester City all in the hunt. These clubs boast deep squads, vast financial resources, and years of experience competing at the highest level. However, Forest’s current trajectory suggests they’re more than capable of rising to the challenge.

Momentum will be key. In past seasons, clubs pushing for European qualification have often faltered in the final stretch due to squad fatigue, fixture congestion, or simply the mental pressure of chasing an elite spot. Forest must navigate this period carefully, ensuring that they not only sustain their current form but also peak at the right moments. The psychological aspect of a top-four push cannot be underestimated – handling expectations, dealing with setbacks, and maintaining belief will be just as crucial as performances on the pitch.

Qualifying for Europe’s premier competition wouldn’t just be an incredible sporting achievement; it would be a financial boost, attracting better players, increasing global recognition, and bringing back the electric European nights that Forest fans have long dreamed of.

If Forest do return to the Champions League, it won’t just be a sporting achievement; it will be a cultural moment – a reminder that history, no matter how distant, can still inspire the future. And for Forest fans, it will feel like coming home.

There are generations of Forest fans who have grown up listening to tales from parents, grandparents, and the terraces about those unforgettable European nights. Now, perhaps, it’s their turn to have some stories of their own.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2025

Preview: Bayern Munich out to wrestle the title back from Bayer Leverkusen

Defending Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen host league leaders Bayern Munich, who have the chance to build a double-digit lead at the top of the standings.

By Neel Shelat

Bayern Munich’s imperious form

There were a good few doubters when Vincent Kompany was appointed as Bayern Munich’s head coach ahead of this season, but the signs were always there that he could lead the team to success. He looks well on course to doing just that as the Rekordmeister are taking an eight-point lead into this fixture and have won all but one of their last 10 games.

Bayern have absolutely dominated the vast majority of their Bundesliga matches this season. They have scored the most goals with an average of over three per game, conceded the fewest times, and maintained a staggering possession average of over 70%! Without a doubt, they have been the best team in Germany this term.

Draws set to cost Leverkusen the title

Bayer Leverkusen were never likely to match the highs of their invincible domestic campaign in 2023/24, so their ongoing campaign should be considered a success in the bigger picture. While their chances of defending the title willl remain slim even if they manage to win this match, they are arguably the favourites in the DFB Pokal and have a spot in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16. So, more silverware could well be on the cards for Die Werkself.

In the Bundesliga, though, Xabi Alonso’s side will likely point to draws as the cause of their failure to retain the title. Like Bayern, they too have lost just one league game, so dropped points against the likes of Holstien Kiel, Bochum, Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg have opened up the points deficit.

Leverkusen on their best-ever head-to-head streak

Bayer Leverkusen have played over a hundred games against Bayern, but they have only managed to put together one five-game unbeaten streak against Die Roten. That run started a couple of years ago and is currently ongoing, with their narrow cup victory in December being the most recent meeting. That means Xabi Alonso is yet to taste defeat against Bayern as a head coach, the club where he ended his playing career.

Bayern Munich still in with a shot at a record points haul

Bayern Munich will effectively have one hand on the title if they win this game, but they should have some extra motivation to keep going at 100% until the end of the season.

Die Roten are still in with a chance of breaking the Bundesliga points record that they themselves set over a decade ago, but the margin for error is absolutely zero. They are currently on course for a final tally of 93 points if they win all of their matches, so even one more draw will make it impossible for them to overtake the 91-point record.

Prediction

A high-quality tactical match-up is pretty much guaranteed between these two teams and coaches, but Bayern might just have the quality and momentum to edge out a narrow one-goal victory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Bundesliga with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Brighton vs. Chelsea 2.0

It’s déjà vu for Brighton and Chelsea as the two sides face off on Friday, for the second time in a week, with the South Coast side beating the West Londoners 2-1 in the FA Cup, knocking them out of a tournament Enzo Maresca should have had his eyes on.

By Alex Roberts

There is no love lost between these two sides that aren’t quite rivals but kind of are as Chelsea travel south on Valentine’s Day. Maresca, who is in need of a result as his side’s rocky run continues, will doubtless be hoping to solidify Chelsea’s place in the top four.

There is only so much Cole Palmer can do

Last season, Cole Palmer almost single-handedly carried Chelsea to a sixth-place finish, he’s still their main man, leading the way for Premier League goals and assists. Unfortunately for the lanky genius, he continues to be let down by those around him.

Palmer has created more chances (66) than any other player in the Premier League season. He’s also created 32 chances since 4 December without registering a single assist in that time.

His body language is becoming more and more frustrated, it’s easy to tell he’s starting to lose a little faith in his fellow attackers. Chelsea fans will be hoping he doesn’t lose faith in the clubs ‘project’ too.

Which Brighton will turn up?

After an impressive start to the season, it’s been one step forward, one step back for Brighton. Their impressive 3-1 win over Man United at Old Trafford was undone by two consecutive defeats to Everton and Nottingham Forest.

Brighton were by far the better side in the two club’s FA Cup tie, despite Chelsea’s domination in terms of possession, but that doesn’t mean the same side will turn up on Friday.

Chelsea didn’t field their best XI, although a good chunk of them were in there. Should they add the final couple of pieces to the puzzle, it may throw the Seagulls off a little.

Burn out in central midfield

It’s wild that Chelsea have spent all that money but only have two top class options in the centre of the park. Enzo Fernández is clearly still getting to grip with playing in the Premier League, despite a purple patch earlier in the season, but the improvement is clear.

Outside of Palmer, former-Brighton player Moisés Caicedo has arguably been Chelsea’s best performer this season, making a massive 139 recoveries, 45 tackles, and 33 interceptions. He’s channelling his inner N’Golo Kanté, and the fans love him for it.

Caicedo is starting to look a little leggy though, and should the Ecuadorian pick up any kind of serious injury, Chelsea’s midfield wouldn’t just be exposed, it would be wide open.

*Caicedo defensive numbers, Premier League 2024/25*

The Georginio Rutter show

A few eyebrows were raised when Brighton decided to splash a club-record transfer fee to secure the Frenchman’s signature from Leeds, despite his impressive season in the Championship. It’s fair to say he’s silenced the doubters.

Rutter was the star of the show in the FA Cup game, bagging Brighton’s equaliser and providing the assist for Kaoru Mitoma’s winner.

He scored in the reverse Premier League fixture too. He clearly loves playing against Chelsea, don’t be surprised if he ends up either scoring or assisting against the Blues yet again.

Prediction

Brighton deserved their win the other day, but we don’t see them pulling off a similar kind of result on Valentine’s Day. We reckon the points will be shared, and it’ll be 1-1 at the AMEX.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.