Page 20 – The Pulse of Football

Jan

2025

Jayden Danns: Arne Slot’s ideal No. 9 project and Liverpool’s next Scouse starter

While the future of boyhood Liverpool supporter Trent Alexander-Arnold has become a headline topic this season, the rise of another in Jayden Danns remains a beguiling subplot.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

There is as yet no resolution when it comes to Alexander-Arnold‘s future at Anfield – whether he will sign a new contract or leave for Real Madrid in the summer – and the emotional pull to this story is undoubtedly magnified by his local-lad status.

Unlike with Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk, there is a stronger sense of ownership among supporters when it comes to one of their own; which works twofold, clearly making the decision tougher for the player himself.

For Liverpool supporters, the sight of a Scouser in a red shirt, playing week in, week out at Anfield and beyond is the pinnacle. Like Alexander-Arnold and Curtis Jones today, there were Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher before them.

That makes the chance of another product of Merseyside, 19-year-old striker Danns, establishing himself as part of Arne Slot‘s first team all the more appealing.

Part of the club since he was eight years old, Danns first emerged in the senior setup at the start of 2024, having produced an undeniably emphatic run of form as part of Liverpool under-18s and later the under-21s.

Called into first-team training under Jürgen Klopp, he made his debut against Luton in the Premier League one midweek, came off the bench against Chelsea at the weekend and then scored a brace against Southampton in the FA Cup three days later.

“It’s a dream come true, I’ve supported the club since birth so to come on and score at the Kop end was unreal, it doesn’t feel real to me, it feels like I’m in a movie,” was his reaction after that 3-0 victory at Anfield.

Asked about how his father, former Crystal Palace, Leicester and Bolton midfielder Neil Danns – who was once part of the Liverpool academy himself – would have felt, he said: “Last time when I made my debut he was crying so I don’t know what he’s going to be doing now.

“He’s in the stands watching and so is my mum, brother, sister and nan. It’s unbelievable.”

Those words sum up exactly what playing for Liverpool means for a local boy like Danns, and that sheer affection acts as a driving force for players, willing to go the extra mile for the club.

That showed, again, with an influential cameo against Accrington Stanley in the FA Cup earlier this month, with Danns coming away with his third goal in just 100 minutes for Liverpool’s first team – one every 33.3 minutes on average.

Brought on for 16-year-old Rio Ngumoha with 18 minutes left of normal time and the Reds 2-0 up, the teenager produced another impactful cameo as he won the ball in midfield, surged up the pitch and played in Federico Chiesa for a big chance in front of goal.

Chiesa’s effort was palmed out by goalkeeper Billy Crellin, but Danns had followed his pass up and was on hand for a first-time finish that put the previous 76 minutes from Darwin Núñez to shame.

That there were 10 months and only three more substitute appearances between that brace against Southampton and Danns’ latest goal highlights the difficulty he has faced, missing five months with a back injury aggravated at the start of pre-season, but also that his trajectory has not been affected.

“I’m young. There’s still a lot more to do, and hopefully a lot more I can do. So, yeah, looking forward to it,” he reflected after the 4-0 win over Accrington Stanley.

“Obviously, the manager’s put faith in me today and I’m grateful for it, to be honest. I scored and I mean, like I said, I’m really grateful for the opportunity he’s given me. Hopefully, I can do even more if he gives me more opportunities.”

It remains to be seen whether those opportunities will come this season, with Slot coy on the subject of a January loan move as the likes of Plymouth, Derby and Cardiff circle, but there is a strong case to argue that Danns should in fact stay.

His development may accelerate if given the chance of regular first-team football in the Championship, but the No. 76 has already shown that he is capable of fitting in comfortably among Liverpool’s senior side.

He has taken inspiration from Roberto Firmino in the past, but there are also elements of Harry Kane to his game; he is able to operate as a classic No. 9 or a deep-dropping nine-and-a-half, as evidenced by that goal against Accrington Stanley.

There is an industry to his game along with a remarkably silky touch and the ability to cover ground quickly with the ball at his feet, while his finishing ability is undoubted, having translated from the academy to the first-team stage.

Danns already looks better suited to the style employed by Liverpool’s new head coach than another of Slot’s strikers, with Núñez having struggled so far to prove himself in a system which benefits from a more rounded option up front.

There is a growing feeling that Liverpool could and should cut their losses on Núñez at the end of the season, which is only compounded by the emergence of the ideal new No. 9 project for Slot in Danns.

“He will always, like the other academy players, give all he has. James McConnell is also a perfect example of that,” the head coach explained after the FA Cup win.

“If that is your mentality, you can definitely get the most of your potential. That is what’s going to happen with him.”

It is still a long road ahead for a player who only turned 19 on Thursday, with Slot himself stressing that he “probably needs some time to find out if he in the end will be a starter for us.”

But Danns has already shown strong signs that he can be the next Scouser in our team.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Jan

2025

Preview: Manchester United look to create momentum against Southampton

Manchester United host Southampton at Old Trafford in the Premier League on Thursday in a game that sees two sides who are struggling for form of late.

By Matt Smith

In the last five games, United and the Saints have won just once between them in England’s top flight.

When the two teams met earlier in the season, United came away with a 3-0 victory under Erik ten Hag, a game that saw Tyler Dibling make his first Premier League start and Matthijs de Ligt score his first goal for the Red Devils.

Amorim praises Collyer impact

In his press conference ahead of the game against United, Rúben Amorim spoke to the media about the challenges his side will face against the Saints. Amorim was quick to point out the progress that young midfielder Toby Collyer has been making, suggesting that he is ‘training really well’.

The Portuguese manager confirmed that Collyer is ‘one more option’ for his squad now after making an impact off the bench against Arsenal.

Bruno Fernandes is stepping up to the task

Although United’s form has been inconsistent in recent weeks, the Manchester club have picked up two impressive results on the road consecutively, beating Arsenal in the FA Cup last time out while securing a point at Anfield in the Premier League seven days before.

Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes has stepped up to the plate in big moments for his side, providing an assist against Liverpool and a crucial opening goal against Arsenal. Although the former Sporting man is far from having his best season for the club, he’s still been a standout star for the Red Devils this campaign, particularly in the final third.

Saints receive major Downes boost

Ivan Jurić confirmed to the media this week that Flynn Downes has returned to training and should be available to face United. The Southampton boss wasn’t able to ensure supporters that he will play from the start, but his return is a major boost nonetheless.

Dibling finding goalscoring form

Dibling has been a revelation for the Saints this term and a shining light in what has been a disappointing campaign. At the age of just 18, the English attacker has shown signs of huge potential, and he’s starting to contribute in front of goal for Southampton.

In the last three games in all competitions, Dibling has found the back of the net on three occasions including a brace last time out in the FA Cup. Jurić will need the young star to be at his best if they want to get a result at Old Trafford. The teenager has shown flashes of brilliance, but contributing with goals and assists regularly in the final third will help propel him to the next level.

Prediction

Although both sides have shown plenty of inconsistency this campaign, the Saints have picked up just two points on the road. It’s difficult to see United not winning this one, especially after two impressive results on the bounce. We’re going for a comfortable 3-0 victory for the Red Devils.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Real Madrid looking to recover against Celta Vigo

After suffering a serious thrashing at the hands of Barcelona in the Supercopa, Real Madrid will look to get back on track in their Copa del Rey tie against Celta Vigo.

By Neel Shelat

Defence rejig is in order for Real Madrid

On the back of last weekend’s El Clásico humiliation, Carlo Ancelotti will quite likely try to change something in his Real Madrid side. Their depleted defence should get the most attention as it was badly exposed by some relatively simple quick attacking play. It was particularly weak on the right, where Aurélien Tchouaméni was at centre-back and Lucas Vázquez in the full back position.

There were a host of issues in Los Blancos’ defensive block which Ancelotti acknowledged, but they were hardly new developments. Real Madrid had similar weaknesses last season, but their superior player quality masked that in most matches. This term, the season-ending ACL injuries to Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão have simply exacerbated what was always an underlying problem.

Unless the Spanish champions make any signings in the January window, Ancelotti will have to fashion a long-term solution from the limited options he has. 21-year-old Raúl Asencio will be keen to get some more regular game time, while David Alaba could soon become an option having returned from an ACL injury himself.

Star striker Aspas a big miss for Celta

Iago Aspas is still going strong for Celta Vigo at the ripe old age of 37. He is their top scorer in LaLiga with six goals and has three assists to boot, making him the team’s most valuable attacking contributor.

*Celta goals and assists, LaLiga 2024/25*

However, the former Liverpool forward suffered a calf injury in Celta’s first match of 2025 – their previous Copa del Rey tie against Racing Santander. He is expected to be out until early February, so Los Celestes will have to find a different source of goals for the next couple of weeks at least.

Celta keen to give Real Madrid’s defence another test

Despite Aspas’ absence, Celta Vigo will back themselves to create some chances against Real Madrid. Although Claudio Giráldez’s men ended up on the losing side when the two teams met earlier in the season, they managed to outshine the defending champions both in terms of the quality and quantity of chances created.

Indeed, Celta have sustained a pretty impressive level of attacking output so far this season. They are sixth in the league in terms of goals as well as xG and also have the fifth-highest possession average. Although they will most likely not do as well as Barcelona, they certainly have the potential to put some slick moves together.

Real Madrid’s spotless head-to-head record

Real Madrid have won each of their last nine fixtures against Celta Vigo in a run that predates Carlo Ancelotti’s appointment. Their head-to-head unbeaten run stretches back almost eight years, though their last defeat did come in a Copa del Rey tie at the Santiago Bernabéu. One Iago Aspas was the star of the show that day with a goal and assist.

Prediction

As is so often the case, Real Madrid’s superior player quality should just about get them over the line.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game Real Madrid game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

FotMob Profile: Jhon Duran and his underlying numbers

No player in the Premier League this season has a higher goals per 90 return than Jhon Durán.

By Sam McGuire

The 21-year-old has, so far, chipped in with 1.06 goals per 90. For a little more context here, the next best on the list is Mohamed Salah, the man leading the race for the Golden Boot, with 0.92.

Durán started the season as a super sub for Aston Villa before eventually displacing Ollie Watkins in Unai Emery’s starting XI prior to his unfortunate dismissal against Newcastle United.

Ahead of that game against the Magpies, the Villa No. 9 had scored in four successive matches across all competitions. This included goals against RB Leipzig in the Champions League and Manchester City in the Premier League.

The turnaround for Durán at Villa has been remarkable.

Last summer, it looked as though he would depart Villa Park with West Ham United interested in the Colombia international. The Hammers reportedly offered £30m plus teenager Lewis Orford, an offer that was swiftly rejected. Chelsea also showed an interest and were prepared to pay £42million for his services. That transfer collapsed, however, when the player rejected the contract offer proposed to him by the Blues.

He then scored the winner against West Ham having come off of the bench in the opening game of the season.

Durán has been scoring ever since.

In total, he has 12 goals across 26 appearances this term. Of those appearances though, only seven have been starts and he has just shy of 1,000 minutes to his name.

There have been claims that the Villan is the best finisher in Europe right now. Some of his goals this term have been outrageous. He scored an effort with an Expected Goals value of just 0.02 against Everton. The xG value for his goal against RB Leipzig was 0.03 while his goal against Bayern Munich, when he caught Manuel Neuer out, had an xG value of 0.01.

His striking ability is ridiculous. His technique is ludicrous.

But how sustainable is this run he’s on? As we know, finishing can be fickle. Players can be on a hot streak that does eventually dry up. Sometimes, players aren’t able to buy a goal before the floodgates open and they can’t stop. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. It is just football.

Durán, reportedly a target for Paris Saint-Germain this month when it appeared as though their pursuit of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia may have failed, is now under pressure to make this form the norm. Is it possible, though?

The numbers don’t appear to suggest so.

*Durán shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Across 592 Premier League minutes this term, Durán has seven goals from an Expected Goals haul of 4.77. His Expected Goals on Target total is 5.57, which suggests he’s adding value to his efforts with his shot placement, something all good finishers do. But there’s more to it than that. The Villa man is able to add value to his shots because a high number of his efforts are of low value. The sheer volume eventually plays a significant part in the numbers. For example, if he’s taking 10 efforts with an average xG value of 0.02 but they had an xG on Target average of 0.20, he immediately has an xG haul of 0.20 but an xGOT total of two. It isn’t quite as extreme as this with Durán, but you get the point, don’t you?

Durán is averaging 4.41 shots per 90. He has an xG per shot average of 0.16. He is what you’d call an elite chance-getter. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t be averaging over four shots per game. He’s someone who generates a lot of shots and causes chaos for the opposition. But these players can be streaky with their end product. He isn’t the sort to simply be in the right place at the right time. Maybe he won’t ever be that sort of player.

When they’re hot, they’re hot. When they’re cold, they’re cold. They haven’t quite yet figured out how to balance it out. Some don’t ever work that part of their game out. It isn’t a given.

Durán’s shooting numbers, Premier League 2024/25

Last season, it was a similar story. He finished with five goals from an Expected Goals total of 2.03. In fact, his five goals arrived from just seven shots on target. There was a lot of luck on his side during the 2023/24 campaign. And, again, it was over a small sample size and he was impacting the game against tired legs.

Right now, Durán is an enigma. He’s either one of the best finishers in the world or he’s currently on a prolonged hot streak. The more often he starts, the more we’ll learn about the former Chicago Fire player. Until then though, we’ll just enjoy watching him try to win the Goal of the Season award every single week.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Everton and the return of the Moyesiah

David Moyes is back at Everton more than a decade after he last managed the Goodison Park club with the Toffees facing a fight to stay in the Premier League.

By Graham Ruthven

In David Moyes’ own words, Everton has changed in the 11 years since his first managerial stint there. “I don’t think it’ll be the same Everton,” said the 61-year-old after replacing Sean Dyche as Toffees boss, hinting at the looming stadium move coming this summer. It certainly won’t be the same Everton if they’re not still in the Premier League by then.

Moyes might also be referencing how Everton’s standards have fallen through the floor since he left Goodison Park to replace Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United in 2013. While the Toffees were a permanent member of the top half back then, they are now stuck in a never-ending fight against the drop.

It’s been this way for a number of seasons. Everton haven’t finished higher than 15th in any of the last three Premier League campaigns. They scored the fewest league goals of any team in 2024 and are currently uncomfortably close to the bottom three. Indeed, Everton are above the relegation zone by a single point.

In the immediate term, Moyes must do all he can to keep Everton in the Premier League. The £800m construction of the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock has already weighed down the club in a financial sense and that weight would get even heavier should the Toffees be relegated. They need the revenue that comes with being in the top flight.

“I see it as a huge pressure and when you care so much about a club and have such a long period [away], it makes me realise it is a really popular club, one that needs to be – and has been – in the top flight,” said Moyes. “It would be a great feeling for us all to be in the new stadium. But it would mainly be great if we are a Premier League club and can give everyone something to shout about.”

The attack is surely where Moyes is looking to make the biggest difference. Only Southampton have scored fewer goals than Everton in the Premier League this season with Iliman Ndiaye and Dwight McNeil the club’s joint top-scorer on three goals each. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Everton’s first-choice centre forward, has two goals in 1,389 minutes.

Calvert-Lewin could argue that Everton aren’t creating the opportunities he needs to find the back of the net. The Toffees have created just 28 ‘Big Chances’ this season which ranks them 20th out of 20 Premier League teams in that metric. They are also third-bottom for touches in the opposition box. And bottom in terms of Expected Goals (xG). Everton simply don’t ask enough attacking questions.

Dan Friedkin’s family takeover of the Goodison Park outfit could give Moyes funds to spend in the transfer market, but Everton’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) situation could restrict their January business. Nonetheless, speculation is swirling over reported targets such as Lyon winger Ernest Nuamah and Aston Villa’s Jaden Philogene.

Moyes’ remit is also to carry Everton into a new era. Friedkin’s takeover has renewed ambition around the club with supporters desperate to experience something other than relegation anxiety. It’s time for Everton to plot their way up the Premier League table and Moyes is seen as the man to make this happen.

At West Ham, Moyes won a European competition not long after the club moved into a new stadium. He somehow managed to handle a sometimes toxic environment to point the Hammers in the right direction. Even as Moyes left West Ham last summer, they were nowhere near relegation trouble. Everton surely looked at all this before calling the 61-year-old.

Tactically, Moyes might not be the most inspiring appointment Everton could have made. By the end of last season, West Ham desired a more modern, expansive approach and decided the Scot was incapable of delivering this. ‘Moyes-ball’ is about compact defensive organisation, physicality in the wide areas and quick attacks into open space, not aesthetics.

This, however, would be an improvement on what Everton are currently producing. Fans tolerated Dyche’s ‘Burnley-ball’ as long as it kept the Toffees up, but its effectiveness wore off as his team got pulled closer and closer towards danger at the foot of the Premier League table. A change was necessary to stop the slide.

Of course, Everton have had false dawns before. Farhad Moshiri’s takeover in 2016 was meant to turn the club into a genuine force, yet the Toffees only succeeded in spending their way into trouble. Now, the Friedkins are the ones promising better times with Moyes back at Goodison Park. A look to the past could be the catalyst for a better future.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Arsenal host Spurs in the North London Derby

The key question ahead of Wednesday’s North London Derby is whether the timing is worse for Arsenal or whether it’s worse for Spurs.

By Ian King

Hangovers from a troublesome weekend?

The Third Round of the FA Cup turned out to be a difficult weekend for both clubs. Arsenal had plenty of opportunities to kill Manchester United off at The Emirates but failed to take them and were eventually beaten on penalties. Spurs got through, but were held for more than 100 minutes by non-league Tamworth. But in the League, there is a distinct contrast. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last ten Premier League games, while Spurs have only won one of their last eight.

History

There is, of course, a lot of history to be had here and recently it has been in Arsenal’s favour. They’ve won six and drawn one of the last eight meetings between the two, and they’ve already won 1-0 at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this season. But Spurs supporters looking for a little encouragement don’t need to look back too much further than this. Arsenal won only two out of twelve meetings between the two clubs between November 2015 and December 2020.

Key players

Arsenal need goals, and with Gabriel Jesus now injured, attention will fall upon Raheem Sterling, Kai Havertz, and Leandro Trossard to provide them. Sterling and Trossard were both anonymous against Manchester United. Havertz may well wish that he had been.

That Angeball high press may mean chances for the hosts, and as such the question may well be whether new Spurs goalkeeper Antonín Kinský can maintain his record of having kept clean sheets in his first two appearances for the club.

Team News

The latest player to appear on the Arsenal treatment table is the aforementioned Gabriel Jesus, who could be out for the rest of the season after suffering an ACL injury against Manchester United. He’ll join Ethan Nwaneri, Bukayo Saka, Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu on the wounded list, while Riccardo Calafiori missed the Manchester United match with injury and is likely to be absent again.

There isn’t much that Arsenal can teach Spurs about injuries, of course, though at least they came through their trip to Tamworth without any new ones. Destiny Udogie, Ben Davies, Richarlison, Micky van de Ven, Guglielmo Vicario, Wilson Odobert , Cristian Romero and Rodrigo Bentancur will all likely be missing, and although Fraser Forster may be available, whether he can dislodge Kinský is a different matter.

Prediction

Sunday might have highlighted a recent issue over Arsenal and goalscoring, but how much of this is hyperbole? After all, they’ve only failed to score in three of their Premier League matches this season, so far. And while Spurs have occasionally impressed against the bigger clubs this season, they’ve pointedly failed to do so when it’s been a local derby, with both Arsenal and Chelsea having already returned from N17 this season with all three points. Local derbies can be unpredictable, but Arsenal need the points and a 2-1 home win feels about right.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Preview: Barcelona face Betis in first test since Supercopa triumph

Barcelona host Real Betis in the Copa del Rey just days after thumping Real Madrid in the Spanish Supercopa final in Saudi Arabia.

By Graham Ruthven

Ground to make up

Sunday saw Barcelona produce arguably their best display of the season as they put five goals past Real Madrid in a Clásico thumping in the final of the Spanish Supercopa. It was a performance to savour for Hansi Flick and his players.

However, Barca return to Spain to play in another cup competition this week with Real Betis hoping to be the latest team to expose the Catalans at Montjuïc following recent wins for Atlético Madrid, Las Palmas and Leganés at Barca’s temporary home.

These defeats raised concerns that opposition teams were starting to figure out Barcelona’s high defensive line. Hansi Flick’s high-risk approach might be entertaining, but it doesn’t always result in the most controlled performances by his side.

In LaLiga, Barcelona finished up for the winter break on a run of just one win in seven games. Since then, though, they have dispatched Barbastro in the Copa del Rey round of 32 and handily defeated Athletic Club and Real Madrid in the Supercopa. The rest has revived them.

Real Betis, on the other hand, suffered a 1-0 loss to Real Valladolid on Saturday to bring a seven-match unbeaten run to an end. The flip side of that record is that Los Verdiblancos have won just one of their last eight league outings.

Manuel Pellegrini’s side have already taken points from Barcelona this season, drawing 2-2 with them at the start of December, and could once again be a thorn in the side of the Catalans.

Key players

Lamine Yamal put on a show in Sunday’s Spanish Supercopa final, scoring a stunning equaliser and generally posing a threat in the final third for Barcelona. Real Madrid had no way to handle him.

Flick has suggested he could manage the 17-year-old’s minutes as he continues his recovery from injury, but Barca will want to keep up their run going in the cup competitions. They need their best creator player on the pitch.

Vitor Roque could return to the Real Betis starting lineup against his parent club while Isco is expected to start having only recently returned from injury.

A lot of pressure will be on Real Betis central destroyer and USMNT international Johnny Cardoso to break up Barcelona attacks in the middle of the pitch with Sergi Altimira alongside him.

Team news

Iñigo Martínez sustained a hamstring injury in the 5-2 win over Real Madrid in Sunday’s Spanish Supercopa final and is expected to miss the next month of action, only adding to Barca’s number of defensive absentees.

However, Ronald Araújo could start his first league match of the season after making his long-awaited return from injury off the bench against Real Madrid. The Uruguayan will be a straight replacement for Martínez in central defence.

Giovani Lo Celso will miss the match at Montjuic after picking up a muscle injury in the defeat to Real Valladolid while Héctor Bellerín, Chimy Avila and William Carvalho are long-term absentees.

Prediction

Momentum is with Hansi Flick’s side, so we’ll go with Barcelona 3-1 Real Betis.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Copa Del Rey with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Write off Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen at your peril

Bayer Leverkusen are just four points behind Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga despite making a slow start to their title defence.

By Graham Ruthven

By scoring twice in the opening eight minutes of Friday’s away win over Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen picked up where they left off before the Bundesliga’s winter break. If the first half of the season saw Xabi Alonso’s team struggle for consistency, there are signs that The Black and Reds will be back to their best in the second half.

Leverkusen once again look like the side that surged to an historic maiden Bundesliga title last season. They have won nine matches in-a-row in all competitions and have reduced the gap to Bayern Munich at the top of the table to four points. While many were quick to declare this season’s German title race over, Leverkusen are making up ground on their rivals.

While Leverkusen have rediscovered their form, they have evolved since last season. They needed to. It wasn’t sustainable for them to rely on so many late goals and comebacks to earn results. Last season was exhilarating and will be talked about at the Bay Arena for decades to come, but it couldn’t continue.

And so Alonso has focused much of his efforts this season on giving Leverkusen more control. They are averaging less possession per match in the Bundesliga, but this has been designed to make the defending champions more difficult to play against. Against Dortmund, Leverkusen had just 30% of the ball, yet remained relatively solid.

“We did well with the ball, but we also did it really well without the ball,” said Alonso after the landmark win at the Westfalenstadion. “We did not concede much. It is a development of our game that we can compete in this way, to play here with this discipline against a top, top team in Europe.”

This tactical evolution has been clearest in the Champions League where Leverkusen have kept three clean sheets in three home games. Alonso has harnessed the chaos of last season and used it to turn Leverkusen into a more rounded outfit. They still boast one of the strongest attacks in Germany, but the foundations are now stronger than they were last term.

Edmond Tapsoba was particularly impressed away to Dortmund, not just giving Leverkusen presence at the back, but also having a direct hand in two of the three goals. The Burkina Faso international is physically imposing, but also has the technical ability to get his team moving quickly out from the back. Alonso’s approach wouldn’t work without him.

At the top of the pitch, Patrik Schick is currently in the form of his life, averaging a Bundesliga goal every 51 minutes. Last season, Alonso primarily favoured a front three with Jonas Hofmann and Florian Wirtz in behind Victor Boniface as the centre forward. This season, Leverkusen have shifted to something closer to a 4-4-2 and this has benefited Schick as a penalty box poacher.

Of course, it would be misleading to suggest Leverkusen’s 4-4-2 is an orthodox one. They push Jeremie Frimpong and Álex Grimaldo extremely high to such an extent that they effectible operate as wide forwards. Nathan Tella has the positional freedom to exploit space wherever he can find it while Wirtz poses an all-round threat.

Wirtz could reportedly sign a new contract to stay at Bayer Leverkusen until 2027 despite interest from across Europe. Widely considered the club’s best young talent since Kai Havertz, and possibly even Michael Ballack before him, the 21-year-old has made another step up recently, registering 11 goal involvements in his last eight games – albeit he was only used from the bench in the game at Dortmund, hence his face is missing from the graphic above.

Back-to-back home fixtures against Mainz and Borussia Monchengladbach this week give Leverkusen the opportunity to build more momentum and apply more pressure on Bayern Munich. Alonso has likely circled his team’s next meeting with the Bavarians on 15th February as a potentially season-defining encounter.

The Champions League is another arena where the ever-improving The Black and Reds could make their mark in the second half of the season. Only Liverpool and Barcelona have more points than Leverkusen after six matches of the new-look League Phase with their place in the last 16 all but assured.

Leverkusen could take advantage of an extremely open field to make a deep run. Barcelona and Real Madrid both have their flaws. Manchester City are a shadow of the team that won the Treble in 2023 while Paris Saint-Germain are in a transitional phase under Luis Enrique. Why can’t Leverkusen win the Champions League?

Alonso is widely considered football’s next great manager and Bayer Leverkusen have been moulded in the Spaniard’s image. Having played under Pep Guardiola, Carlo Ancelotti and José Mourinho among others, Alonso has had a wide-ranging education in the game. This is shining through in how he is shaping Leverkusen.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Bundesliga on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2025

Analysis: How far can high-flying Nottingham Forest go this season?

Nottingham Forest have enjoyed an incredible first half of the 2024/25 season. They currently find themselves up in third place in the Premier League standings – just six points behind the leaders. While talk of a potential title challenge might yet be premature, they are certainly well on their way to their best league finish for decades.

By Neel Shelat

In a season of chaos and unpredictability in the Premier League’s upper and mid table, Nottingham Forest have been the big winners so far. While the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur are languishing in the bottom half and Manchester City are struggling to find their best form, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have shot all the way up to the podium positions. If they manage to sustain such results, they will surely seal an unforgettable return to Europe.

Here is how Forest have gotten so far.

Busy transfer activity

While the source of much of Nottingham Forest’s funding is questionable, to say the least, it would be unfair to say that they have bought their way to success. They are still in the bottom half of the table as far as player payrolls are concerned, meaning their annual wage bill is less than half of the likes of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2022, Forest have spent a fair bit in the transfer market though – over €400 million to be more exact. In that time span, they have made as many as 46 permanent signings! While a good chunk of those players have either been sold on or got moved around in Evangelos Marinakis’ multi-club ownership group, Forest’s squad has still been completely overhauled. In fact, Ryan Yates is the only player currently at the club to have represented them in the Championship.

An interesting aspect of Nottingham Forest’s transfer business is that they seem to have a policy of spreading out their investments rather than going big on one player. Their record transfer fee of just over €41m for Elliot Anderson (in a deal with Newcastle United that was allegedly conducted in a way to strategically adjust their balance sheets more than anything else) is only the 14th-highest club transfer record in the Premier League. They have only signed one other player for north of €30m, namely Ibrahim Sangaré. For the most part, their recruitment has been focused on finding cut-price deals from fellow Premier League clubs and major European markets as well as top South American sides.

Naturally, such a large amount of player turnover did not have an instant positive impact on the team’s performances. They just about survived the relegation battle in both of the last two seasons, finishing 16th and 17th. In the long run, though, all that matters is simply that they stayed up. There can be no doubt that the new signings have significantly raised the quality of the squad on paper, and with most of the new players now far more settled at the club, Forest had the platform to exceed expectations this season.

Rock-solid defensive blocks

While they have been well-supported in the transfer market, Nottingham Forest’s coaching staff and players deserve a lot of credit for what still is a huge overachievement so far this season. Their squad is ranked 10th in the Premier League by player market value, so the fact that they are so high up in the table is largely down to their excellent on-field performances.

At a time when the most interesting coaches and teams are regarded as the ones with the most novel tactical ideas, Forest are a breath of fresh air for showing that a simple yet effective and well-executed tactical plan can go a very long way. The foundational aspect of their success has to be their well-drilled and compact defensive block, which has proven tough to break down for all kinds of opponents.

Crucially, Nuno’s side are not wedded to one specific shape. While they generally like to start in a 4-2-3-1 mid block and drop into a 4-4-2 deeper, they are quite comfortable switching to a back five as well – especially against stronger opponents and / or when trying to see out a lead. That is why Forest have managed to concede the second-fewest goals and third-lowest xG tally in the league despite having by far the lowest possession average at under 40%!

Direct attacking punch

Nottingham Forest’s defence is very much the foundation for their attack. Indeed, it is thanks to their exceptional defensive record that they have managed to make do with a very mediocre attacking output. Their tally of 29 league goals scored is below the median, yet they have taken the lead on more occasions (17) than any other team. Forest have gone on to see out most of those games, losing just once and only dropping eight other points from winning positions.

By keeping games tight, Nuno’s side aim to lure their opponents out and hit them hard in transition – especially on the counter. Their tactics are obviously geared in this direction while the attackers in the squad are very well-suited to such a style too. The likes of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Antony Elanga offer great outlets on the wings thanks to their on and off-the-ball running, while the likes of Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White can quickly string attacks together in the central areas.

*Nottingham Forest Expected Assists, Premier League 2024/25*

Chris Wood’s sensational form in front of goal has been extremely handy in finishing moves off.

Beyond their counterattacking threat, Forest also have the ability to break down more settled blocks. Their full backs have the energy levels required to bomb up and down the wings when needed, and they can even switch to a back three to chase a goal. The option of James Ward-Prowse on the bench can add to their set-piece threat along with a few imposing aerial presences in the side.

*Chris Wood shot map, Premier League 2024/25*

Putting all of that together, Nottingham Forest have struck a great balance with a tough-to-beat plan A and various avenues to score a crucial goal or see out a lead. So, there is little to suggest that they should drop too far down the standings in the second half of the season.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Jan

2025

Premier League Preview, Matchday 21

The FA Cup third round offered a reprieve from Premier League action last weekend. However, as a consequence, there’s a bumper round of fixtures in the English top-flight to make up for it this week. We have a midweek round of matches spread across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday before a full schedule this weekend.

By Sam McGuire

Before the latter, though, let’s have a look at what we can look forward to across Matchday 21.

The battle for the Golden Boot

At the start of the season, few would’ve had Bryan Mbeumo in contention for the Golden Boot, yet here we are, 20 games on the board, and only Erling Haaland (16) and Mohamed Salah (18) have more goals than the Brentford forward.

This season, the 25-year-old has scored against Spurs, Newcastle United, Chelsea and Arsenal. He’ll be looking to add Manchester City to the list as the Bees welcome the reigning champions to the Gtech Community Stadium on Tuesday.

Thomas Frank’s side suffered a shock home loss to Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup over the weekend.

Not only was it a surprise because Plymouth are rooted to the bottom of the Championship, it caught a lot of people off guard because of how impressive Brentford have been at home this season.

The Bees have the second best home record in the English top-flight with seven wins and two draws from their 10 outings. They have scored the most home goals (27). You’d not call it a fortress but Brentford are impressive at home. They’ll be looking to bounce back against an out-of-sorts City side.

Pep Guardiola’s side haven’t travelled well this season. In fact, they haven’t done much well this season in fairness and that is why they find themselves in sixth position, 12 points off the top. On the road though, they’re struggling. They have the seventh best away record and have scored just 15 goals across their 10 outings.

Within their ranks, they have Haaland. After a drought, he’s found the back of the net three times in two outings and he’s well in the race for a third successive Golden Boot.

It is unlikely that many would have viewed a game between Brentford and Manchester City in mid-January as a potential key fixture in the race for the Golden Boot, but it could well be the case.

Revenge for Liverpool?

Liverpool have suffered just one defeat in the Premier League all season. It arrived back in September as Nottingham Forest travelled to Anfield and returned to the City Ground with all three points.

Arne Slot has mentioned it at every given opportunity. The loss to Nuno Espírito Santo’s side haunts him and he’ll be looking to right that wrong on Tuesday when he takes his league leaders to face the surprise package of the season.

Forest are third in the table, level on points with Arsenal and just six behind the Reds.

Believe it or not, this game could have huge ramifications on where the title ends up this season.

Despite their good form, Espírito Santo’s side aren’t the best at home this season. They’ve taken 17 points from their nine home games and have scored just 11 goals. Their strength is their defence though having conceded on just seven occasions.

This game feels like another battle between two attackers. Chris Wood has 12 goals in the Premier League this term and has been directly responsible for 41% of the goals scored by Forest. Mohamed Salah, meanwhile, has 18 goals and he accounts for 38% of the team haul.

The Reds aren’t as reliant on their No. 11 though. They travel well and have the best away record in the English top-flight despite playing fewer games than their rivals due to the Merseyside derby being postponed.

The return of David Moyes

Everton made the bold decision to part ways with Sean Dyche earlier in the week. In a bid to save themselves from a relegation battle, they drafted in former boss David Moyes.

The 61-year-old has been out of work since leaving West Ham at the end of last season. The Toffees are currently in 16th position, a point ahead of the dropzone and they’re without a win in the Premier League in over a month.

They host Aston Villa this week. On paper, this could be a tricky fixture with the Villans looking to finish in the European places again this season. However, Moyes has a deceptively good record against them

He’s only suffered seven losses in 34 matches against Villa and he’s won six of the last 10.

Meanwhile, Unai Emery has a decent enough record against the Toffees having won four of seven and three of the last five. This could be a fascinating, tactical battle with both teams needing points on the board for very different reasons.

Arsenal on the ropes

It hasn’t been a great start to 2025 for Arsenal.

The Gunners were held to a draw with Brighton in the Premier League before suffering a 2-0 loss to Newcastle United in the first-leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final. They were then knocked out of the FA Cup on Sunday evening with Manchester United beating them on penalties at the Emirates.

If the disappointing results weren’t enough, the injuries are piling up for the Gunners. Bukayo Saka is out for the foreseeable and the resurgent Gabriel Jesus is now sidelined after he sustained what looks to be an ACL injury in the loss to the Red Devils.

On Wednesday night, they welcome Spurs to the Emirates for the North London Derby.

Spurs have been erratic this term but did beat Liverpool in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final last week. They’ve also beaten Manchester City (twice) and Aston Villa this season, proving they can turn up when it matters. They’re also suffering with injuries but have enough in attack to cause problems. They could well dent Arsenal’s title bid and you wouldn’t be that shocked given how Tottenham’s season is going so far.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.