Arsenal sat third going in to Christmas, not a terrible position on the face of it for an Arsenal side expected to be one of three teams capable of challenging for the title.
By Karl Matchett
Following the Boxing Day games however, the Gunners have slipped to fourth and as ever, context is king: they’re now nine points off the pace, while those above them include last year’s distant third-placed team and two sides who weren’t even in the conversation.
Job No.1: Staying in touch
Manchester City’s dramatic fall from grace should, in theory, have presented Arsenal with an opportunity – but their own decisions on and off the pitch, more pragmatic and with solid rather than spectacular transfer work, have seen them fall away too. If ten winless games throughout the Premier League season is effectively a cut-off point for title race involvement, the Gunners are 80 percent of the way there already. Most games are now must-win for them, especially home to newly promoted sides such as Ipswich Town. All Arsenal can aim for, for now at least, is to do exactly that and trust to hope that another opportunity to overhaul the teams above them will roll their way.
Staying in touch isn’t just the message at the top though. Ipswich are three points adrift of safety, 19th in the table – but probably somewhere about where they expected to be after promotion and signing for the future in the summer. That’s not to say they don’t want to try staying up, but they don’t need it to be done by the new year. Keeping in contact with those above them is all important, such as the win over Wolves recently, not defeats to Newcastle last time out or potentially at the Emirates. Their quality in attack means they cannot be dismissed but they’ll target mini runs against Everton, Brentford and Leicester, not the Magpies, the Gunners and Chelsea.
Good runs and bad runs
Being off the pace can make it feel Arsenal are in a bad run, but they’re not right now – seven wins from the last nine in all competitions, four wins in the last six in the league. It’s just that for the title, margins are so fine, but they are scoring and winning, netting eight in two matches against Crystal Palace in the past week.
Even if winning matches against bigger clubs isn’t the absolute key, the Tractor Boys do need to keep nicking points here and there. Four defeats from their last five isn’t sustainable either, and they have only two victories in all competitions all season. They’ve only kept one clean sheet, too – back in September.
Team news
The biggest loss is the biggest news: Bukayo Saka’s absence for “weeks” through a hamstring injury means Gabriel Jesus must really step up in productivity and consistency, and Mikel Arteta needs to find an alternative threat from Saka’s position on the right flank. Ipswich are without suspended Sam Morsy, injured George Hirst and sidelined Chiedozie Ogbene.
Key player
Gabriel Jesus has come into the side of late and immediately rediscovered his scoring touch – Mikel Arteta is desperate for that to continue. It also makes a mockery of him playing 266 league minutes before last week. If he can now play more but keep averaging 3.84 shots and 8.2 touches in the box per 90 minutes, they have another dangerous forward to rely on.
Prediction
Arsenal won’t – can’t – have any trouble seeing off strugglers at home if they are to rebuild any sort of momentum at the top into the new year: Arsenal 3-1 Ipswich.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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