Page 15 – The Pulse of Football

Apr

2024

European Hot Shots: The year-on-year improvement of Lois Openda

RB Leipzig are no stranger to large transfer fees. However, the Bundesliga club are usually receiving big money for players rather than parting with huge sums to bolster their squad. Yet in the summer, Die Roten Bullen signed off on a reported €44million deal to bring Loïs Openda to the Red Bull Arena.

By Sam McGuire

It was a move that made a lot of people sit up and take notice.

The versatile Belgian forward had caught the eye for Lens during his sole season in Ligue 1. He scored 21 goals and registered four assists as the Black and Gold shocked the rest of the league to claim a second place finish, just a single point behind champions Paris Saint-Germain.

Few had them down as title contenders. They had finished the 2021/22 campaign in seventh. They added to their squad in the summer but their big investment was Openda as he joined from Club Brugge for €16million.

Bizarrely, it wasn’t until leaving his homeland that the forward found his feet. He struggled to break into the Club Brugge starting XI and was sent on loan to the Eredivisie with Vitesse. It was his exploits across two seasons there that convinced Lens to bring him to the club.

Openda scored 28 goals in 66 appearances while in Holland and this included a remarkable second season in which he found the back of the net 18 times in 33 outings. The numbers he posted while with Vitesse would’ve no doubt piqued the interest of a number of clubs across Europe.

In his final season with the club, he appeared in 2,658 minutes and finished with an Expected Goals haul of 17.27. His xG on Target total was 18.94, highlighting the fact he was someone who added value to his opportunities with his shot placement. It also suggested that he was unlucky to have finished the campaign with just 18 goals. Usually, when the Expected Goals on Target total exceeds the Expected Goals haul, a player tends to have a higher goal return.

With Vitesse, Openda showed he could be a reliable, consistent goal threat if a team ensured he was given opportunities in the final third. For context, he averaged 3.67 shots on Holland. If a team was able to use those numbers as a platform, there’s no reason he couldn’t replicate that sort of output. Perhaps even build on it.

And that is what happened with Lens, to an extent.

The 16-cap Belgian international averaged 3.7 shots per 90 during his single season in the French top-flight. He finished the campaign with 25 goal involvements, of which 21 were goals. His xG total for the season was 18.41 while his xG on Target total was a little down, coming in at 17.32.

He wasn’t able to add value to his efforts but, this time, he was able to convert at a greater rate. Again, though, he showed his nous as a goalscorer and impressed as a genuine goal threat for a second successive season.

RB Leipzig likely looked at these two seasons and concluded that in their system, he might be able to scale those numbers. They appear to have been spot on. The 24-year-old, signed to fill the void left by Christopher Nkunku when he moved to Chelsea, has seamlessly adapted to life in the German top-flight.

His 19-goal return can only be bettered by Serhou Guirassy (23) and Harry Kane (31). With seven games left in the 2023/24 campaign, Openda needs three goals to make this his most prolific season to date. If he manages to do it, it would mean he’s improved his goal return for four successive campaigns.

That is no mean feat.

Openda has an xG haul of 19.01 this term, so he’s on par, but his xG on Target total is 20.58, so he’s once again adding value to his attempts with his shot placement. What is interesting is that since the move to the Bundesliga, his shot numbers have risen to 4.36 per 90 – the highest of his career. This goes some way to explaining his huge underlying numbers. He’s posted these totals despite appearing in just a little over 2,105 minutes.

Another noticeable change this season has to do with his finishing. When shooting to his left, he tends to keep his efforts low and it isn’t really an area he’s finding the back of the net with great regularity. However, when he’s aiming to his right, he’s hitting top corners and the majority of his goals are via this route. Despite this being a theme, opposing teams are struggling to stop him simply because of his quick feet.

It is little wonder some of the best teams across Europe are believed to be keen on him, despite his reported price tag. He’s been a consistent goalscorer despite playing for three teams across three seasons. He’s a sharpshooter and a clinical finisher. The perfect combo when matched with his explosive pace. His potential as a marksman is scary.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every RB Leipzig game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

The Scottish Championship: Britain’s most exciting division

As per usual, the main talking point in Scottish football right now surrounds the Old Firm as they both battle it out for the Premiership title. This is the first proper title race since Rangers returned to the top flight in 2016, as Philippe Clement has rejuvenated the Light Blues after taking over in mid-October, turning them from a club in crisis to potential treble winners.

By Ross Kilvington

With two derby clashes left, the battle could go down to the wire in what should be the most exciting climax for years.

Has this perhaps stolen the limelight from another pulsating title race in Scotland? As the Championship is shaping up to provide the most thrilling finish in the SPFL.

Last season, 32 points separated champions Dundee from bottom side Cove Rangers, yet between first and sixth position, there was only an eight point difference, showcasing how tightly contested the division was.

In comparison, the Premiership saw a staggering 48 points separate Celtic from St Mirren in sixth, while the difference between the same positions in League One and Two were 30 and 26 points respectively.

The 2023/24 campaign is no different. There is an enthralling title race going on, a fierce battle for the remaining two playoff positions, plus a battle to see who avoids the relegation playoff spot.

The question is, why does the Scottish Championship fail to get the plaudits it deserves? Despite being the most exciting league in the country.

Relegation scrap

Two seasons ago, Arbroath were swiftly becoming everyone’s second team. The part timers from Angus exceeded all expectations under the wily Dick Campbell, finishing in second place.

They suffered an agonising defeat in the playoffs to Inverness and it has been all downhill from there. The Red Lichties look condemned to League One, but the battle to see who will finish ninth is tight.

Ayr United are only six points clear of Inverness, while Queens Park are just four points better off and while this may not be as exciting as the scrap at the top of the table, everything is to play for at the bottom.

The Promotion playoff battle

Now, this is where things begin to get exciting. Airdrie, Morton, Dunfermline, and Partick Thistle are the four teams vying for third and fourth spot in the table.

Partick appear to be running away with third place, currently holding an eight point advantage over Dunfermline, but nothing is a foregone conclusion in Scotland’s second tier.

The Pars won the League One title last season, achieving an impressive 81 points and have acquitted themselves well.

Morton and Airdrie are arguably two of the most promising teams in the league. Dougie Imrie oversaw a 16-game undefeated run earlier this season which vaulted the side up the table, but they have Airdrie breathing down their necks.

Player-manager Rhys McCabe (yes they still exist) was appointed in the role ahead of the 2022/23 season, going on to secure promotion to the Championship.

This season, Airdrie have displayed a wonderful style of football that proves lower league clubs can still play a possession based game which looks easy on the eye and have success while doing so.

Indeed, McCabe led the Diamonds to Challenge Cup success recently, defeating Welsh side TNS in the final to win the trophy for the first time in 15 years.

They may occupy sixth place, but the club do have two games hand over some of their rivals. The former Rangers player will be looking to use the cup success as a catalyst for an impressive finish to their league campaign.

Murrayball, Dundee United and the race for the title

By all accounts, Dundee United should have won the title by now. Relegated from the Premiership last season, Jim Goodwin’s side certainly have the biggest budget in the division, yet far too often they have looked lackadaisical, losing five and drawing eight of their 31 fixtures thus far.

Hardly the form of runaway league winners, while also having to contend with a spirited Raith Rovers side led by former Rangers and Hibs defender Ian Murray.

The ‘Murrayball’ moniker is obviously a tongue in cheek reference to the Michael Lewis book Moneyball, which features Billy Beane and his sabermetric approach to Baseball in order to overachieve with the Oakland Athletics, who have the lowest budget in the MLB.

Of course, Raith don’t have the lowest budget in the Championship, nor has Murray revolutionised the sport. Considering they finished seventh and fifth in the previous two seasons, something has clicked this season, though, no doubt about it.

Off the pitch, a new board have transformed the club’s prospects, which has seen average attendances rise. While on the field, Murray has installed a never say die approach in his team.

Trailing 2-1 to Queens Park in November with minutes to go and down to ten men, ‘Murrayball’ came into effect. By the time the final whistle went, Raith had won 3-2.

This was followed by late winners against Inverness, Arbroath and Dundee United as the Kirkcaldy club began to give United a run for their money at the top of the table.

Despite losing to the Arabs last weekend, Raith were undefeated against Goodwin’s team across their three previous matches, showing how far they have come since the end of last season.

Murray’s side trail United by four points, albeit with a game in hand, heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

While Arbroath look destined for the drop, the rest of the division is shaping up to have quite the thrilling finish.

All eyes will be on the Old Firm, yet there is plenty more going on in the second tier. The Championship may not just be the most exciting leagues in Scotland, but it has a valid case for being one of the most underappreciated divisions in Britain.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Scottish Championship on FotMob. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Analysis: How Thiago Motta’s Bologna have taken Serie A by storm

Having established themselves as a regular mid-table team over the last few seasons, Bologna have made a dramatic jump this term and remain in the top four spots going into the home stretch of the season. With an eye-catching playing style and some very exciting individuals in attack, they have been the neutrals’ favourites in Serie A this season.

By Neel Shelat

As the UEFA Champions League expands to a 36-team format, Europe’s top two leagues will get an extra fifth spot to the tournament. Serie A is currently looking likeliest to be among them, so Bologna have a golden opportunity to return to Europe’s premier club competition after a sole appearance back in 1964/65.

The Rossoblù are a storied club with a 114-year history and seven Serie A titles in their cabinet, albeit six of them came before World War II. Their success waned thereafter, and after their latest league title in 1964, they have been a bit of a yo-yo club alternating between Italy’s top two tiers for half a century or so. Their ninth-placed finish last season was just their second in the top half of Serie A in over a decade, but even after that, few could have seen them going as well as they have done this term.

Much of the credit for their success has gone to head coach Thiago Motta, who was hired very early on last term. His previous track record as a coach in Italy at relegation-battlers Spezia and Genoa was far from stellar, so his appointment at Bologna did not make worldwide headlines.

After quietly building towards success in 2022/23 with a solid top half finish, Bologna and Motta’s tactical ideas have exploded in popularity thanks to consistently fantastic performances this term.

Solid Defensive Base

Bologna’s eye-catching possession-play has made all the headlines, but from a statistical perspective, their defensive work has been more impressive. They are among the top three teams in Serie A when it comes to goals conceded and clean sheets, and their underlying numbers are just as impressive.

Motta tends to set his team up in a 4-1-4-1 or 4-2-3-1 high/mid-block, with the intention of staying compact between the lines and often player-marking opponents through midfield. By doing so, they restrict their opponents’ chances of progressing through the middle and keep them as far away from the goal as possible, naturally restricting their scoring chances. At the same time, by not committing to an intense press, Bologna ensure their defensive line is not breached too easily.

Quite often, we see exciting mid-table teams’ chances of competing for a European spot undone by relatively weak defensive records, but thanks to these simple yet solid principles, Bologna do not have that problem.

Eye-Catching Possession-Play

Anyone who has carefully watched even a single Bologna match this season has surely been very impressed by their fluidity and silkiness with the ball. They are very much a possession-based team, keeping an average of over 58% of the ball in their matches.

The thing that stands out the most in Bologna’s possession-play is the movements of the centre-backs, who often step into midfield areas both in the build-up phase or further up the pitch. Meanwhile, the full-backs stay deep, while the more advanced midfielders spread themselves in the pockets between the high and wide front-three. Through these movements and rotations, the Rossoblù ensure that their ball-player always has options and open passing angles to securely find teammates and, if need be, play out of pressure.

This system has proven particularly effective in a league where player-marking is quite popular, meaning the movement of a centre-back into midfield has the potential to totally destabilise an opponent’s defensive set up. So, Bologna are among the most frequent and secure passers in Serie A.

Unlike Napoli, they rarely keep possession for possession’s sake and instead consistently threaten opposing defences. They stand out with their incision and clinicality in the final third, which is largely a product of their player quality in the attacking positions.

Individual Quality in Attack

The most impressive aspect of Motta’s coaching at Bologna has been his ability to strike a balance between establishing a set system that everyone on the pitch collectively executes while also ensuring every player has a good deal of individual freedom. The centre-backs’ rotations into midfield is one example of that, but the biggest role of individual quality in his system comes at the other end of the pitch.

The star of the show is Joshua Zirkzee. The young Dutchman was quite highly-rated when he came through Bayern Munich’s youth academy, but he never really cut it for the senior team. His first taste of success at the senior level came on loan at Anderlecht under Vincent Kompany, whose team benefited by over 20 goals thanks to Zirkzee’s output. After that, he was snapped up by Bologna on a permanent basis in the summer of 2022.

Under Motta this term, Zirkzee has thrived in a role that perfectly suits his unique profile. He has been used as a central attacking hub for the team as he often drops back and receives forward passes using his excellent close control to retain the ball before turning away from defenders and linking up with his teammates on either side of him. The 22-year-old striker also goes on to pose a shooting threat in and around the box, but he is not a pure number nine and rather a more well-rounded striker in the style of Harry Kane.

In fact, Bologna’s biggest shooting threat – be it in terms of shot volume or xG – is not their starting striker but instead Riccardo Orsolini. The Italian attacker always starts wide on the right wing, where he likes to receive the ball in space and drive at full-backs. After forcing them to retreat, his signature move is to cut inside and fire a curling shot away with his favoured left foot, which has dealt a lot of damage so far.

Zirkzee and Orsolini have been well supported by the likes of Scottish international Lewis Ferguson, young Giovanni Fabian and ex-Milan winger Alexis Saelemaekers, so Bologna have enough attacking quality in their squad to mount and sustain a top-four charge.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Serie A game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

The MLS Team of the Week: Matchday 7

Our MLS expert James Nalton picks five of the standout players from Matchday 7 in Major League Soccer, including his two North American Soccer Reporters (NASR) Player of the Matchday votes.

By James Nalton

Players from MLS’s Western Conference feature heavily among the standout performances from Matchday 7.

Several teams from this side of the league have been among the best to watch in the early rounds of the 2024 MLS season, and there are plenty of players to keep an eye on.

A couple of them were the clear standout pair from this round of games.

The Top Two

9.5 FotMob rating: Djordje Mihailović – Colorado Rapids

The American midfielder was part of some impressive off-season recruitment by the Rapids, arriving as a Designated Player after a spell in Europe with AZ Alkmaar that didn’t quite pan out as hoped.

Back in MLS, he can be a difference maker for his team, and was for the Rapids in their 3-2 win against Los Angeles FC — their first home win of the season.

It was Mihailović’s inswinging corner, headed in by Moïse Bombito, that had the Rapids back on level terms for the first time.

Then when they went behind again, it was Mihailović’s free kick from the edge of the area, into the net before Hugo Lloris could even think about saving it, which evened things out once again.

His second goal and third goal contribution was to be the winner as he took up the position of a striker in the box to turn in a cross from Kimani Stewart-Baynes.

He also finished the game having created seven chances in total.

Colorado have ambitions to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference, and these are the type of performances they need from Mihailović if they are to reach those heights.

9.6 FotMob rating: Cristian Arango – Real Salt Lake

Real Salt Lake are another team that could challenge at the top of the Western Conference this season and showed as much when they defeated St Louis City 3-1.

All three RSL goals were scored in the last 20 minutes of the game by Colombian striker Cristian Arango.

He got off the mark with a shot fired accurately and powerfully into the corner from just outside the area.

His second was scored from the penalty spot and his hat-trick goal was well set up by Diego Luna for a fifth in total for the season so far.

RSL have only finished among the top five teams in the West once in the last eight years, but this season they are looking like a real contender.

Three more standout performers

8.9 FotMob rating: Gabriel Pec – LA Galaxy

Prior to the arrival of Joseph Paintsil, Brazilian winger Gabriel Pec was picked out as the new signing to watch for LA Galaxy in our Western Conference preview, and he showed why with a player of the match performance as his side defeated Seattle Sounders 1-0.

The 23-year-old scored the only goal of the game with less than five minutes played, firing a shot at the near post that was too hot for Sounders keeper Stefan Frei to handle.

Frei might have been disappointed to let the ball past him, but it was great play from the Galaxy in the build-up involving Riqui Puig and Paintsil, before Pec finished the move.

Pec had a pass success rate of 91% by the end of the game and had completed five dribbles.

The Galaxy sit top of the Western Conference with 13 goals, the second most across MLS after Inter Miami (14).

8.7 FotMob rating: Fafá Picault – Vancouver Whitecaps

Another Western conference side impressing early on this season are Vancouver Whitecaps.

They are just behind the Galaxy in the early table and bounced back from last week’s loss to RSL with a 3-2 win at home against Cascadia rivals Portland Timbers.

Ryan Gauld opened the scoring and then Picault extended the Whitecaps’ first-half lead to 2-0, curling one into the far corner from the left after a deflected cross rolled in his direction.

Portland brought it back to 2-2, but Picault’s persistence in the six-yard box eventually set up a chance for Ryan Raposo to score the winner.

8.7 FotMob rating: Jamal Thiaré – Atlanta United

The 31-year-old Senegalese forward scored his first goals for Atlanta United to help them to a 3-0 win at home to Chicago Fire.

Thiaré came off the bench in the 64th minute to replace Giorgios Giakoumakis who had scored the opening goal.

With his first touch in the 65th minute, Thiaré turned in Brooks Lennon’s cross to make it 2-0.

He had another goal ruled out for offside as Atlanta looked likely to score a third once Carlos Terán was sent off for the Fire.

Thiaré’s brace eventually came with a well-taken goal from close range, including a great first touch to beat a defender after Thiago Almada’s shot rebounded to him off the post.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

MLS: Five storylines from Matchday Seven

FC Cincinnati and the Vancouver Whitecaps continue to set the pace in the Eastern and Western Conferences respectively after a gameweek that saw no shortage of drama across Major League Soccer. A Lionel Messi-less Inter Miami laboured to a home draw against New York City FC while there were five-goal thrillers in Colorado and Vancouver. Here are five of the biggest storylines from the weekend in MLS.

By Graham Ruthven, MLS Expert

Djordje Mihailović making his mark as the Colorado Rapids’ main man

The Colorado Rapids’ off-season rebuild didn’t produce immediate results, but there are finally signs of things coming together for the Dick’s Sporting Goods Park outfit – not least because Djordje Mihailović is off the mark. The USA international had a hand in all three goals scored by the Rapids as they pulled off a comeback to beat Los Angeles FC 3-2 on Saturday.

Signed for a club-record fee from AZ Alkmaar, Mihailović has the quality to be Colorado’s main man in the final third. A stunning freekick equaliser was the highlight reel moment of the 25-year-old’s performance against LAFC, but he was influential throughout. The Rapids are making a conscious effort to get Mihailović on the ball more often and Saturday hinted at what he could produce in burgundy.

Chicho Arango embracing extra responsibility for Real Salt Lake

Chicho Arango made the most of the reprieve he was afforded against St Louis City. The Colombian could have been sent off for lashing out at Tomas Totland, but remained on the pitch to score a hat-trick for Real Salt Lake in a 3-1 win. The Western Conference is an open field and RSL are giving themselves a platform for the season ahead.

Pablo Ruiz will miss the entire 2024 campaign through injury which has heaped the expectation on Arango’s shoulders to deliver for Real Salt Lake. The 29-year-old, however, has embraced this extra responsibility and is just one strike behind Lewis Morgan – and level with Luis Suárez, Giorgos Giakoumakis and Dejan Joveljić – in the early-season Golden Boot standings.

Seattle Sounders’ winless run continues, but should they be concerned?

Five games into the 2024 season and the Seattle Sounders are still searching for their first win. Many still expect Brian Schmetzer’s team to be competitive near the top of the Western Conference, but the longer the winless run goes, the more concerns start to mount. Saturday’s defeat to the LA Galaxy extended the wait.

Seattle had chances in Carson. Jordan Morris spurned a late opportunity worth an 0.54 in Expected Goals (xG). The Sounders actually edged the match in terms of xG, shots, big chances and accurate passes, but injuries and a lack of cutting edge is costing them at the moment. “If I felt the team was really negative or coming apart, I’d be way more worried,” said Schmetzer afterwards.

DeAndre Yedlin settling – and making an impact – at FC Cincinnati

Without DeAndre Yedlin, FC Cincinnati would have suffered defeat away to Charlotte FC on Saturday. It was the USA international’s clever flick that put the opportunity to equalise on a plate for Aaron Boupendza at Bank of America Stadium. This was Yedlin’s first goal involvement since making the move to Cincy from Inter Miami last month.

Pat Noonan can’t count on a moment like this from Yedlin in every match – especially considering the 30-year-old made a run from the right wing to the left side of the box to set up Boupendza – but the early signs are positive that he will give FC Cincinnati the forward thrust they require in the wing-back position this season.

Fit again Sebastian Driussi changes the landscape for Austin FC

In his first 90-minute outing of the season, Sebastian Driussi highlighted just how important he is to Austin FC. The Argentine was the driving force for the Texans who recorded a much-needed 2-1 win – their first of the season – over FC Dallas on Saturday, setting up Diego Rubio for the game-winner with a tremendous cross into the area.

“Seba sets the team. He sets the pulse. His quality is one of the best in the league, there’s no doubt,” said Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff afterwards. Indeed, having Driussi on the pitch makes a big difference. With the 28-year-old fit and firing, Austin FC can certainly climb the Western Conference standings. He changes the landscape for them as a team.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Premier League Preview: Midweek Round 31

Another round of mid-week fixtures is upon us and we’ve not really had a chance to mull over what happened over the weekend. That is the beauty of this stage of the season though. For the players, the schedule is relentless. For fans, however, it feels as though there is football on every single evening and all of the matches seem to matter. With that in mind, here’s what we believe have the potential to be the biggest matches this week.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

Can Newcastle build momentum?

Newcastle United netted a last-minute winner against West Ham United on Saturday evening to put them right back in the mix for European football next season. If they finish the campaign well, a Europa Conference League place could well be up for grabs.

A win on Tuesday evening over Everton could potentially move Newcastle into seventh and they would be just two points off of sixth-placed Manchester United. Not only will they be buoyed by the result on Saturday but they’ll also fancy their chances due to their impressive home form – they are now unbeaten in four on home soil.

Their visitors are in dire need of a performance. Everton are without a win in the Premier League since December. Their 12-game winless streak includes seven losses and they have also failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven outings.

There hasn’t been a draw between these two sides in their last seven meetings, so the likelihood is that one side will be celebrating tonight.

Worrisome form for West Ham

West Ham host Spurs on Tuesday evening looking to get back on track following a second half capitulation against Newcastle United on Saturday afternoon. The Hammers held a 3-1 lead early on after the break but lost 4-3 after a lacklustre showing.

David Moyes’ men aren’t in great form. They are winless in three Premier League matches and have won just two of their last 11 in the English top-flight. They’re now in a battle for a Europa Conference League spot and they’re going to need favours from other teams to claim that position come the end of the season.

By comparison, Spurs are in the hunt for a top four place. A win moves the visitors level on points with Aston Villa and they could potentially leapfrog the Villans into the final Champions League spot, at least temporarily.

Spurs haven’t been in the best form since the 4-0 win over Unai Emery’s side. They lost 3-0 to Fulham and they needed a late Heung-Min Son goal to record a 2-1 victory over struggling Luton on Saturday. They are doing enough to keep the pressure on though and that is all they can do at this stage of the campaign.

Top spot up for grabs at the Emirates

Arsenal claimed a point at the Etihad on Sunday. A good result but it did see them lose top spot to Liverpool. They have an opportunity to return to the summit on Wednesday as they welcome Luton Town to the Emirates.

The visitors are without a host of key players and they currently find themselves in 18th position in the Premier League. It is quite remarkable when you consider Rob Edwards’ side are without a win in 10 and haven’t kept a clean sheet in 10 either.

The Hatters have taken just 10 points on their travels this season. Only Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest have collected fewer points on the road. While only Liverpool (39) have won more points at home than Arsenal (34). This should be a routine victory for Mikel Arteta’s men. If they secure all three points, it heaps all of the pressure back onto the Reds in this title race ahead of their Thursday night match.

How will the Champions react?

Manchester City are still in this title race but they seem to be struggling to go through the gears at the pivotal part of the season. Pep Guardiola’s men have drawn three of their last six matches in the English top flight and are currently three points off of the pace.

City have the third-best home record this season but have actually drawn a third of their fixtures at the Etihad in the English top-flight. They are unbeaten at home but it isn’t quite the fortress it usually is.

They host an in-form Aston Villa side on Wednesday evening, a team still holding onto the final Champions League spot. Villa, who have suffered just one loss in their last six Premier League outings, are without a raft of players heading into this game with John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, Emi Buendia, Jacob Ramsey and Matty Cash all missing.

They are, however, unbeaten in eight away games and do have the fourth best away record in the English top-flight. An upset could be on the cards.

Liverpool versus Sheffield United

At the time of writing, this match sees top-of-the-table Liverpool host bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United. It should be a formality for the Reds but the Premier League always has a surprise or two for us during the title run-in.

The Reds have come from behind in each of their last two outings in the Premier League to claim four points. Their comeback victory over Brighton on Easter Sunday lifted them above Arsenal and into top spot.

Jürgen Klopp’s side have the best home record in the English top-flight. They are unbeaten against Sheffield United in five matches and they have Mohamed Salah back in their starting XI. All of the signs are positive.

Meanwhile, Sheffield United are leaking goals – 17 in their last five – they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 10 outings and they have given up two-goal leads in their last two games. It could be a long night for the Blades if Liverpool get an early goal. The longer it remains 0-0, the more confident they’ll become.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Surprise semi-finalists set up unforgettable DFB Pokal conclusion

None of the four DFB Pokal semi-finalists have lifted the title for nearly three decades. Two of them have never gotten their hands on the trophy. Three aren’t even top-flight teams! Clearly, we are approaching the very business end of an incredibly magical cup season.

By Neel Shelat

“Die Magie des Pokals” is the German equivalent of “the magic of the cup”, so that must be being said a lot around the country at this time of year. As we approach the final four of the DFB Pokal, we are promised a memorable end to an incredible season of the cup as giants such as Bayern Munich, defending champions RB Leipzig, and Borussia Dortmund have all fallen.

Instead, it is surprise Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen chasing their second-ever cup trophy who are the favourites. In fact, they are the only top-flight team still standing as the other semi-finalists include giant killers Saarbrücken of the 3. Liga as well as two sides from the 2. Bundesliga.

Ahead of the upcoming semi-finals, let us take a look at each of these four teams and how they got here.

Saarbrücken

The story of the DFB Pokal season so far has to be Saarbrücken’s unbelievable run to the semi-final.

A third-tier team overcoming the country’s strongest team in Bayern Munich, recent Europa League champions Eintracht Frankfurt, and Borussia Mönchengladbach is a crazy enough story in itself, but it would even have made a smidgen of sense if they were runaway promotion favourites. Instead, Saarbrücken have firmly been a mid-table side in the 3. Liga this season.

It is impossible to say what is possessing them in the cup, but they are somehow putting together incredible performance after incredible performance to hold off Bundesliga attacks and hit them on the counter. That formula has served them well enough to equal their best-ever cup run (they also made the final four in 2020!), so they will now hope that it can take them one or even two steps further.

FC Kaiserslautern

Just a couple of years ago, FC Kaiserslautern regularly faced Saarbrücken in the 3. Liga, so their reunion in the cup semi-final is sure to be a truly special occasion.

In fact, if FCK pay too much attention to their cup campaign at the cost of their league form, they may have to make the trip to Saarbrücken more regularly. At the moment, they sit in the relegation play-off spot, just one point above the direct drop zone from Germany’s second tier.

Kaiserslautern have been a touch fortunate with the draws so far as they have only come up against one Bundesliga side – relegation battlers FC Köln in the second round – and only need to overcome a third-tier team to reach their what would be their first cup final since 2003.

They have the worst defensive record in the league with a grand total of 1 clean sheet so far, so their approach to games certainly is one of outscoring their opponents no matter what. 14-goal striker Ragner Ache has been key to that approach, so the timeline of his return to fitness from a hip injury could prove decisive in Kaiserslautern’s cup campaign.

Bayer Leverkusen

Without a shadow of a doubt, Bayer Leverkusen are now the firm favourites to win the DFB Pokal. If they get the job done, this could be just their third major trophy. Die Werkself’s ambitions will be far greater, though, as they are still unbeaten all season en route to a potential treble.

Their path to the semi-final has not be an overly dramatic one as they eased past lower-tier opponents in the first few rounds, but did get a real run for their money in the quarter-final. Fellow Bundesliga overachievers Stuttgart pushed them all the way in what was one of the best matches of the season in Germany – from a tactical and entertainment standpoint. After the game swung in all sorts of directions, centre-back Jonathan Tah won the day for Leverkusen with a header in the 90th minute!

Leverkusen easily have the quality to cruise past any of the remaining semi-finalists, but as their close-run Europa League tie against Qarabağ would have warned them, they must be careful in their approach of balancing three separate title charges. Xabi Alonso’s men will certainly be keen to avoid a repeat of the club’s 2002 treble horror.

Fortuna Düsseldorf

Fortuna Düsseldorf are enjoying their best cup run since 1979/80 when they sealed back-to-back titles – their only post-War major trophies. If Bayer Leverkusen do slip up, they will be likeliest to make it three as they are also in contention for promotion to the Bundesliga.

Under Daniel Thiourne, they certainly have the firepower to give this cup a really good shot as their return of 59 goals in the 2. Bundesliga is the highest in the league.

They also have the joint second-best defensive record in the league, although that has not really shown in the cup yet as they have failed to keep a single clean sheet despite never coming across top-flight opposition. Their success against 2. Bundesliga leaders St. Pauli in the quarter-final was very encouraging, though, so they will hope to see that momentum carry on in what promises to be their toughest match of the season against Bayer Leverkusen.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the DFB Pokal live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Premier League Team of the Week: Easter Weekend

There are still nine rounds to go in the Premier League but when the dust is settled, Matchday 30 could be viewed as pivotal by a number of teams. It might be surprising to see that only two players from the top four teams made it into our Team of the Week. Here’s a look at the top performers from across the Easter weekend.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

Goalkeeper: Arijanet Muric

Muric put in an incredible performance between the sticks for Burnley in their 2-2 draw with Chelsea. The 25-year-old made an astonishing 11 saves and faced shots with an Expected Goals on Target total of 4.82, meaning his exploits prevented close to three goals at Stamford Bridge. The shot-stopper, perhaps surprisingly, also created one chance for the Clarets to cap off his 8.8 showing.

Right- Back: Conor Bradley

It highlights just how good Bradley has been for Liverpool when you say the Premier League leaders haven’t really missed Trent Alexander-Arnold. The 20-year-old makes it into the FotMob Team of the Week again following an 8.6 rated performance in the win over Brighton. The Northern Ireland international created four chances, he completed four of his six dribbles, won five of his six tackles and 11 of his 16 duels as Liverpool rallied from 1-0 down to claim all three points at Anfield.

Centre-Back: Mathias Jørgensen

The defensive juggernaut put in some shift for Brentford against Manchester United on Saturday evening. Mathias Jørgensen aka Zanka won 100% of his tackles, recovered the ball on six occasions, won nine of his 12 aerial duels and triumphed in four of his five ground duels as the Bees scored a well-deserved equaliser in the 99th minute just moments after falling behind.

Centre-Back: Dara O’Shea

Chelsea may have peppered the Burnley goal but this only allowed for O’Shea to catch the eye. The centre-back scored the all-important equaliser that saw Vincent Kompany’s men to return to Turf Moor with a point. Defensively, he was dominant. He won 100% of his tackles, and seven of his eight duels in total, including five of five aerial duels.

Left-Back: Joško Gvardiol

The Super Sunday clash between Manchester City and Arsenal wasn’t one for the neutral but Gvardiol certainly impressed for the reigning champions. The former RB Leipzig man completed 87% of his attempted passes, he created one chance and he also completed 100% of his attempted dribbles. The Croatia international won all four of his tackles and won 80% of his duels in a dominant showing.

Midfield: Cole Palmer

Yet another Team of the Week appearance for Palmer. It really is becoming a regular occurrence at this point. The 21-year-old was yet again the main man for Chelsea in the 2-2 draw against Burnley. Palmer had a total of nine shots, scoring twice to take his tally for the season to 13. He also carved out five opportunities for teammates and completed 100% of his dribbles on his way to a 9.3 rating.

Midfield: Josh Cullen

With Burnley down to 10 men, they needed those on the pitch to really dig deep and find that extra 10% from somewhere to get them back into the game against Chelsea. Cullen did just that. The 27-year-old scored the first equaliser just after half-time and then assisted O’Shea in the 81st minute. It was one of three chances the midfielder created for Burnley in what was an impressive middle-third showing.

Midfield: Mohammed Kudus

Kudus is enjoying life in the Premier League. The former Ajax man scored and assisted in West Ham’s 4-3 defeat to Newcastle United on Saturday afternoon. The versatile midfielder was a menace throughout, creating two chances while attempting 12 dribbles at St James’ Park. Kudus also won all five of his tackles and recovered the ball on nine occasions. Astonishingly, he was involved in 23 duels, really showcasing how well-rounded he is.

Attack: Alexander Isak

The 24-year-old Sweden international converted from the spot on two occasions to boost his tally for the season in the win over West Ham. In a manic game, Isak showed great composure to play his part in Newcastle picking up all three points. He even chipped in with an assist to claim a 9.2 rating.

Attack: Harvey Barnes

Barnes was on the pitch for just 23 minutes. But what a 23 minutes they were. The 26-year-old scored a late equaliser for the Magpies before his stunning effort in the 90th minute won the game for the hosts. He had four efforts in total after coming off of the bench and created one chance in what was a whirlwind cameo.

Attack: Ben Brereton Díaz

The on-loan Villarreal forward wasn’t heavily involved in play for Sheffield United during the epic 3-3 draw with Fulham. But he made it count when he was. Díaz attempted just 11 passes and had two shots on Saturday evening yet finished the game with two goals and one chance created. He also competed in 14 duels, winning six of those, and played a key role in the Blades picking up an important point. Had they been able to hold on, he would’ve been the match-winner.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

How Stefano Pioli has orchestrated AC Milan’s latest revival

Almost unnoticed, too late for the title but with plenty of hope for the future, AC Milan have revived their campaign, stormed into second place in Serie A and put themselves back in the picture for major honours this season. Rewind only a few short months and prior to Christmas it seemed improbable: the Rossoneri had won two of eight heading into December and were struggling in the Champions League. Fast forward to the end of March and it’s two defeats in 15 and everything has changed.

By Karl Matchett

Stefano Pioli is used to calls for him to depart by now. Milan is a demanding environment and perceived failings can be quickly amplified, even if there’s not much in the last decade to suggest they should be doing considerably better.

But every time he seems to be in peril, he finds a way; his Milan team continue to improve, impress, claw back ground and go again.

They’ve won more games than Juventus, scored more than Atalanta, conceded fewer than Roma. City rivals Internazionale might be way out in front, uncatchable this year and on course for the title, but AC can make it a Milan one-two for 2023/24 – and still have the possibility of European silverware on the horizon too, with a Europa League quarter-final against Roma to look forward to. Given they’ve already beaten them home and away domestically this term, hopes must be high they can progress to the last four there.

And yet, this improvement has come without the stars of the show necessarily having their best campaigns. Rafael Leão has mustered just five league goals, the same as left-back Theo Hernández or backup strikers Noah Okafor and Luka Jović, neither of whom have yet to clock more than 700 minutes on the pitch in Serie A this term.

Fikayo Tomori has missed plenty of games injured, Hernández has perhaps been slightly below his top level this term and – along with the ageless Olivier Giroud – Milan have had to rely on big contributions from the likes of Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, previously players who perhaps were not seen to be consistent enough to impact at the highest level.

Certainly there are still improvements to be made. Milan have kept 11 clean sheets this term in Serie A – fewer than Bologna and Torino, among others – are 11th for xG conceded (36) and, at the other end of the pitch, third for big chances created (71) and fourth for average possession, and touches in the opposition box.

If the numbers suggest they are only somewhat better than middle of the road, the sum total of them is that Pioli has them outperforming when it matters, able to find a way to do enough in one game, then again in another, then again in another – even when those fixtures require very different levels of performance to earn points.

Since the turn of the year, Milan have earned valuable wins over would-be rivals for the top four spots, with Fiorentina, Roma, Napoli, and Lazio all vanquished. They are not yet there though: the decisive run will come when they face their second leg at Roma, followed by the Milan derby and a trip to Juventus in successive matches, across just ten days in April. That will tell us much about if Milan are on the verge of becoming a power once more, a genuine threat to Bayer Leverkusen and Liverpool in the Europa League…or merely among the best of the rest in an undercooked Italian top flight.

Despite the lower-than-expected goal return, Leão remains their most likely and best source of success for the rest of the year. He leads the club stats for chances created (47), expected assists (6.6), successful dribbler per 90 (2.6) and penalties won (two).

The Portuguese star also leads the way in big chances created in Serie A this season (16) and only teammate Giroud (8) can match his tally for assists.

A top-four finish is not quite a formality for Milan, but it should be an eventuality. The statement for the summer and beyond which Pioli will want, which the fans will want, will be a strong finish for second place and European silverware once more. Like many other former giant clubs around the continent, they are still rebuilding to chase former glories; the Europa League isn’t the one they crave but it might just do for now.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Milan game with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this season. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Danish Superligaen: Three-way title race promises exciting Championship Playoff

On the other side of the men’s international break, the Danish Superliga resumes with the league having split into two. At the top of the standings, three teams are split by as many points in what promises to be an incredibly exciting title race.

By Neel Shelat

Things are very tight at the top of the Superligaen table right now. League leaders FC Midtjylland are just one point ahead of Brøndby, whose local rivals FC København are hot on their heels as they’re just one result off the top of the table.

These teams will face off home and away in the six-team Championship playoff over the next two months – starting with today’s Derby between second and third, so the title is firmly up in the air right now. Obviously, each of these teams will back themselves to get the job done, so let us take a look at the cases for and against each.

FC Midtjylland

FC Midtjylland have recently established themselves as regular contenders at the top of the table, but they have the fewest titles among the three title contestants. They endured quite a tough campaign last time out as well, ending up in the relegation play-offs.

However, they ended up building the foundations for their title charge in the latter period of last season. Going into the relegation group, they hired Thomas Thomasberg from Randers as their new head coach. He came in and simplified things as the Wolves switched to a simple 4-4-2 formation, prioritising a solid defence, directness in possession and fluid attacking.

Midtjylland comfortably finished first in the relegation group last season and have carried that momentum into the new season. Their tactics have remained largely unchanged, so they have generated the second-highest xG tally in the league despite being among the bottom half teams in terms of possession.

Summer signing Cho Gue-sung has been the team’s top-scorer with 10 league goals, and support from the likes of Guinea-Bissau international Franculino Djú and 22-year-old Oliver Sørensen makes the FCM attack very exciting to watch.

Of course, the big question mark around them is whether their atypical style of play can actually get them over the line. A lot may depend on their defensive record, which is only the joint fourth-best in the league so far.

Brøndby

Brøndby’s presence in this title battle should also be considered unexpected as well. They finished 15 points off the top spot last season and 17 the season prior, so they clearly did not build on their 2020/21 title triumph very well.

They too are enjoying their first full season under new head coach Jesper Sørensen, whose back-three system has worked quite well. Brøndby have the second-highest possession average in the league, the second-most goals scored and the fewest conceded. Ex-Silkeborg striker Nicolai Vallys has been their most important player, and has the best attacking return in the whole league.

All of those stats and figures look quite good, but they hide one critical point: Brøndby’s underlying numbers. By our Expected Points model, they should be fourth in the league behind FC Nordsjælland and have overperformed by a whopping 10 points.

On the plus side, though, they have delivered on the big days; Brøndby have only lost one of their four matches against their direct title rivals. Now that they are firmly in the mix in the Championship group, they have a real chance of going all the way.

FC København

Although they are in third spot right now, defending champions FC København might yet be the favourites to get the job done. As the previously mentioned xPoints table highlights, their underlying performance has remained the best in Denmark.

A big factor behind their occasionally choppy league form has been their European campaign, which led to just their second-ever Champions League knockout tie after starting in the qualifiers. As a result of this intense run, they have had to manage their priorities. Indeed, every match in which they have dropped points in the league this season has been either preceded or followed by a Champions League fixture.

Now, though, FCK are out of all cup competitions and can solely focus on the league for the last two months of the season. With a full strength squad kept fit and fresh by weekly matches, they will surely be the strongest team in the league.

The fact that they have scored more goals than anyone else is made even more impressive when you look at their top-scorers list, which has teenage sensation Roony Barghji on top with only seven goals to his name.

A wide spread of goal contributions around the squad is a good thing, but it does mean that don’t have a star striker they can rely on for big games. This probably is the reason why they have just one win against their direct rivals, so they will surely need to do better in that respect if they are to reclaim the crown.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from Denmark’s top flight live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.