Page 141 – The Pulse of Football

Jan

2024

The complete list of Premier League players going to the Africa Cup of Nations

The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off on January 13 when hosts Ivory Coast face Guinea-Bissau in the first game of the group stage.

By that time, most of the players involved will have spent a good week or so preparing for the tournament in their respective national camps.

By James Nalton

The tournament’s move to the winter from its initial calendar slot of summer 2023 (to avoid the rainy season in Ivory Coast and retaining the name for branding and sponsorship reasons) means it will once again be played in the middle of many domestic club seasons.

This will not be the case for the 2025 edition in Morocco, or for the 2027 tournament jointly hosted by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, but this rearranged 2023 tournament will cause some disruption at club level.

The latest a player will be involved is February 11, the day of the final. Being knocked out in the semi-finals on February 7 doesn’t mean a return home, either, as there is a third-place game on the 10th.

Senegal and Morocco are the favourites, followed by the likes of Algeria, hosts Ivory Coast, and Egypt, with Cameroon, Nigeria and Tunisia also in the mix according to bookmakers, so players from these nations could be missing for the longest amount of time.

AFCON can be unpredictable, though, especially given the decline in quality, or at least consistency, of some of the traditionally strong teams, so there could be surprising early exits as well as unexpected runs.

Here is a look at the Premier League players who will be missing club football in January, and potentially February.

Arsenal

🇪🇬 Mohamed Elneny

This tournament comes at an important moment in Arsenal’s season, but shouldn’t affect them too much.

Though their title challenge has fallen away somewhat in recent weeks, they are still in a good position to mount a renewed effort to dethrone defending champions Manchester City and current league leaders Liverpool.

The only player they will be missing to AFCON is Mohamed Elneny, the Egyptian defensive midfielder who has only played one minute of football in the league for Arsenal this season. He may give them one less rotation option in cup competitions, but Arsenal won’t miss a player who has barely played.

Aston Villa

🇧🇫 Bertrand Traoré

If Arsenal are considered to be in the Premier League title race, then second-place Aston Villa, three points ahead of them, must be included in that mix too.

They have made a brilliant start to life under manager Unai Emery, progressing in the Europa Conference League as well as doing well in the Premier League.

Like Arsenal, they do have a player making the trip to Ivory Coast, but it may not impact them too much.

Bertrand Traoré will join up with a Burkina Faso side where he is a star player, but he has not featured much for Villa due to injury or remaining on the bench in most games he has been available.

Bournemouth

🇧🇫 Dango Ouattara

🇬🇭 Antoine Semenyo

Bournemouth fans will be keen to monitor the progress of Ouattara, the left-footed 21-year-old who has appeared sporadically for his club but features regularly for Burkina Faso.

There might also be interest to see how their own team does without Semenyo who has started a number of games recently.

Brentford

🇨🇩 Yoane Wissa

🇳🇬 Frank Onyeka

Wissa has started all but one of Brentford’s Premier League games so far this season and should play a key role for Congo anywhere across the forward line, most likely from the right wing.

The depth and rotation option provided by Onyeka will also be missed as he joins up with Nigeria where he can be in and out of the XI, as is the case at his club.

Brighton

🇨🇮 Simon Adingra

Despite carrying a hamstring injury, Adingra has been called up by the hosts as he continues his recovery.

Head coach Jean-Louis Gasset will hope to have the winger available for selection once the tournament is underway, while Brighton and Roberto De Zerbi will just be hoping he returns injury-free.

Chelsea

🇸🇳 Nicolas Jackson

Nicolas Jackson’s finishing has been criticised during his time at Chelsea so far, but he put in a good performance, including a nice assist for Cole Palmer, in their recent game at Luton Town.

Despite his troubles in front of goal he remained a regular starter for Mauricio Pochettino’s side and played a role in their system even if not scoring.

He’ll now join up with a much-fancied Senegal side so could be set for a deep run in the tournament.

If he can break into the starting XI and get among the goals, or get some off the bench, it could be a useful confidence boost ahead of his return to club football.

Crystal Palace

🇬🇭 Jordan Ayew

The youngest of Ghana’s Ayew brothers can be a key player for both club and country when he’s on his game.

One of the most gifted African players of his generation, he has forged a career at the highest level in the Premier League, settling at Palace more than at any of his previous clubs.

Palace have an array of talent in attacking midfield and forward areas such as Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, Odsonne Édouard and Jean-Philippe Mateta, but their experienced teammate will be missed.

Everton

🇸🇳 Idrissa Gana Gueye

Everton have impressed since being hit with a ten-point deduction in the Premier League this season.

Though perhaps lower profile than other standout players like Abdoulaye Doucouré and Jarrad Branthwaite, Gana Gueye has played a key role in midfield during this good run.

With Doucouré injured and Gana in Ivory Coast, it could now be a tough few weeks for Everton who sit just above the relegation zone.

Fulham

🇸🇳 Fodé Ballo-Touré

🇳🇬 Calvin Bassey

🇳🇬 Alex Iwobi

Fulham have enjoyed some good moments in the Premier League of late, drawing many plaudits following their victory against Arsenal and 5-0 wins against both West Ham and Nottingham Forest.

Disappointing defeats to Newcastle, Burnley, and Bournemouth have punctuated these good results, spoiling their run, and their search for consistency will not be helped by the departure of attacking midfielder Iwobi and centre-back Bassey who join up with the Nigeria squad.

Liverpool

🇪🇬 Mohamed Salah

Liverpool will be one of the clubs most affected by this tournament, not in terms of numbers on their way to AFCON, but in terms of the individual quality they are losing.

The current league leaders will lose Salah who will be looking to win his first AFCON with Egypt, further cementing his legacy as one of the best African players of all time.

It remains to be seen whether Jürgen Klopp’s side can fill the void left by a player who tops the league for goals and assists. Whether they will still be top of the league on Salah’s return.

Manchester City have no players on international duty this month, so will be looking to use upcoming games to recover some ground.

Luton Town

🇧🇫 Issa Kaboré

Luton have been one of the feelgood stories of the Premier League this season, holding their own and playing some good football against some of the best teams in the world.

Kaboré has been dynamic in and out of possession down the right when selected by Rob Edwards and will be another player who could help Burkina Faso spring some surprises.

Manchester United

🇨🇲 André Onana

🇲🇦 Sofyan Amrabat

It will be a last-minute dash to Ivory Coast for Onana, who will play in Manchester United’s game against Tottenham on January 14, one day before Cameroon’s opener against Guinea.

Onana is back in the Cameroon setup after a falling-out with the president of the Cameroon Football Federation, Samuel Eto’o, in 2022, but the smoothing of the relationship appears to have given him and United some leeway on his arrival time.

Amrabat will be looking to regain some of the form with his national team which attracted United to him in the first place.

Nottingham Forest

🇨🇮 Serge Aurier

🇨🇮 Willy Boly

🇨🇮 Ibrahim Sangaré

🇸🇳 Cheikou Kouyaté

🇸🇳 Moussa Niakhaté

🇳🇬 Ola Aina

Forest are the Premier League team most represented at AFCON with six players involved.

They have a big presence at hosts Ivory Coast and will lose a good chunk of their recent back four in Boly, Niakhate, and Aina.

They have performed well under new manager Nuno Espírito Santo, and now their squad depth will be truly tested, especially in those defensive areas.

Sheffield United

🇩🇿 Yasser Larouci

🇹🇳 Anis Ben Slimane

Slimane has enjoyed a run in the team of late under Chris Wilder, Larouci less so. Neither are guaranteed starters with their respective national teams, but if they can get game time the tournament could be good for both.

Tottenham Hotspur

🇸🇳 Pape Matar Sarr

🇲🇱 Yves Bissouma

Pape Matar Sarr is emerging as one of the best midfielders in the Premier League and will be a big miss for Spurs as they look to break into the top four.

The loss in midfield compounded by Bissouma’s absence will add to an already injury-hit squad, which will also lose talisman Son Heung-min to the Asian Cup, which runs across a similar timeframe.

West Ham United

🇲🇦 Nayef Aguerd

🇬🇭 Mohammed Kudus

The departure of Kudus for a few games is one of the biggest AFCON Premier League losses.

He’s been a key part of the West Ham team since coming into the side and has been an exciting player for the fans to watch. They will miss him greatly.

Aguerd, meanwhile, has been a more than useful squad member, playing regularly in Europe and the league up until recently.

Wolves

🇲🇱 Boubacar Traoré

🇩🇿 Rayan Aït-Nouri

The 22-year-old Traoré is looking to break into the first team on a regular basis at both club and international level.

It remains to be seen whether he will see minutes with Mali, but he will be hoping to add to his solitary senior cap. Wolves might hope he gets some minutes too, but they’d rather have Aït-Nouri playing minutes for them at this moment in time.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from AFCON 2023 live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

FA Cup Third Round Review

As a football fan, there’s nothing quite like the FA Cup Third Round. There are always intriguing matchups with the potential for an upset and, on occasion, you get two Premier League juggernauts unexpectedly facing off. The 2023/24 edition stuck to the script. Here are the biggest talking points from across the weekend.

By Sam McGuire

Light work for Newcastle against Sunderland

Heading into this game, the pressure was on Newcastle boss Eddie Howe. The Magpies had one win in eight and had been knocked out of Europe entirely after finishing bottom of their Champions League group. Defeat to neighbours Sunderland at the Stadium of Light could’ve sealed his fate.

By comparison, it was a chance for new Sunderland boss Michael Beale to become a cult hero by masterminding a victory over the Toon Army.

The hosts couldn’t deliver though and suffered a 3-0 defeat on Saturday afternoon. Daniel Ballard scored an own goal before Alexander Isak scored twice at either end of the second half.

Sunderland failed to have a single shot from inside the penalty area while the visitors dominated the ball (64%) and created high-value efforts, finishing the game with an Expected Goals haul of 1.92. This win could be a springboard for Howe and his players in the second half of the campaign.

A scare for the Seagulls

On multiple occasions throughout this game, it appeared as though Championship side Stoke City might take Brighton to a replay.

Steven Schumacher’s side took the lead in the first half courtesy of a Jan Paul Van Hecke own goal. Roberto De Zerbi’s men hit back in stoppage time of the opening 45 minutes with Pervis Estupiñán levelling things up. Lewis Dunk put the Premier League team ahead in the 52nd minute but Stoke pegged them back just after the hour mark. Lewis Baker converted from the spot.

João Pedro, once again, proved to be the match-winner for the Seagulls, scoring twice in the final 19 minutes to give the away side a 4-2 win and book their place in the next round of the FA Cup.

It was a deserved win for Brighton but the scoreline did paint a picture of a more dominant display, and that simply wasn’t the case.

Bournemouth bounce back

There was another scare at Loftus Road as Championship side QPR took a 2-0 lead against Premier League club Bournemouth.

The Cherries had been in fine form, losing just one of their last eight matches, and Andoni Iraola named a fairly strong team for the FA Cup tie.

Despite an even first half, Bournemouth found themselves two goals down at the break after the hosts scored twice in the space of two minutes just before the halftime whistle.

The away side dominated the second half though. For starters, they limited the hosts to zero shots and just 99 passes. Iraola’s men halved the deficit just three minutes after the break before levelling things up before the hour mark. Marcus Tavernier and Kieffer Moore, who started in place of Dominic Solanke, found the back of the net.

Justin Kluivert scored what turned out to be the winner with just 11 minutes remaining to complete a remarkable turnaround. Under Iraola, the Cherries really have clicked.

Forest extend their unbeaten run to three

On paper, a 2-2 draw with a League One side should be a disappointing result for Premier League team Nottingham Forest. Yet manager Nuno Espírito Santo will no doubt be thrilled with the spirit shown by his players at the City Ground.

Against the run of play, Blackpool took a 2-0 lead inside of the opening 30 minutes. It really was against the run of play too, with the visitors having just two efforts on goal in the first half. Both found the back of the net.

The hosts clawed one back before the break before Morgan Gibbs-White found the back of the net for the second successive match. Given how the game played out, the fact Forest found a way to get back into this game will be viewed as a positive. The fact they avoided defeat gives them something to build on and momentum really does matter at this stage of the season, regardless of what competition you are playing in.

Wrexham delight

Wrexham, of League Two fame, went toe-to-toe with League One side Shrewsbury Town at New Meadow. Not only that though, Phil Parkinson’s men actually won the match.

On one hand, it was a fairly even game, with both sides having 11 shots. However, Wrexham controlled possession (62%) while Shrewsbury had the better opportunities, finishing the match with an Expected Goals total of 1.65 to the away side’s 0.65.

A goal in the final 20 minutes was enough to separate the two rivals. It was an unlikely goalscorer with defender Thomas O’Conner popping up to be the match-winner for the Red Dragons. Cup games are difficult to analyse but Wrexham didn’t look out of place against a team from League One. And they’ll want to pit themselves against better opposition in the next round.

The Emirates silenced

Arsenal had a real opportunity on Sunday evening to make a statement. The Gunners had lost two on the bounce following the 1-1 draw with Liverpool at Anfield in mid-December and questions were being asked of Mikel Arteta and his players.

They welcomed a weakened Liverpool team to the Emirates, with Jürgen Klopp without the likes of Mohamed Salah, Virgil Van Dijk, Thiago, Dominik Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo, Joel Matip, Andrew Robertson and Kostas Tsimikas.

The hosts started well and should’ve been ahead in the first half but multiple chances were wasted.

Klopp made tactical tweaks at the break and the visitors grew into the game. They took a deserved lead in the 80th minute when Jakub Kiwior headed a Trent Alexander-Arnold free-kick past Aaron Ramsdale before Luis Díaz added an exclamation point in stoppage time to give the Reds a 2-0 win.

Arteta and Arsenal are now without a win since December 17th.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the FA Cup live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Sensible Transfer Targets: League Two

With the January transfer window open, we take a look at five players who could be on the move this month from each of the English Football League’s divisions. From young prospects to in-form stars, we look outside the box a little to bring you our selection from League Two clubs.

By Nathan Evans

(All stats correct as of 04th January.)

Davis Keillor-Dunn – Mansfield Town

We begin this list with Davis Keillor-Dunn of Mansfield Town who at present is currently ranked as the best player in League Two with a FotMob average rating of 7.84 across his 24 appearances in the competition. That impressive ranking has been largely aided by his return of 14 goals and five assists from his attacking midfield position, netting three braces in the process as he continues to help his side towards potential promotion this campaign.

In fact, of all attacking midfielders and wingers in League Two, no player has recorded more touches in the opposition’s box (123), shots (95), shots on target (45) or accumulative xG (10.03) than the 26-year-old. He’s also created 56 chances for his teammates, whilst his ability to win the ball back in the final third has also aided his side to move up the pitch when needed.

But Mansfield could now struggle to keep hold of Keillor-Dunn this winter due to his impressive form and the fact he only has one more year remaining on his contract, especially with a number of sides higher up the English football pyramid said to be interested in acquiring his services.

Joe Tomlinson – MK Dons

Simply put, MK Dons’ Joe Tomlinson has been the best left-back in League Two this season. Since facing Sutton United in mid-September, the former Peterborough defender, who only joined his new club this summer, has put in performances ranked higher than 7.00 15 times in his 16 appearances according to FotMob.

Many of those top quality performances have been aided by Tomlinson’s attacking profile, with his return of five goals and four assists helping his side to make a play-off push this campaign. In fact, of all full-backs at this level, the 23-year-old ranks inside the top 10% of all players in his position for chances created (39), shots (37) and successful crosses (23) which could make him a target for a number of bigger clubs this winter.

Improvements still need to be made on the defensive front, as Tomlinson’s ball recovery and interception tallies remain low, but with 94 duels won at a 54% success rate, he’s definitely announced himself as a fantastic lower-league wing back during the 2023/24 season.

Ali Al Hamadi – AFC Wimbledon

Despite still only being 21-years-old, Iraq-born striker Ali Al Hamadi is proving to be a huge hit with AFC Wimbledon fans after he joined the London club this summer. Registering 0.89 goal contributions per 90 of League Two action this campaign, the former Tranmere and Swansea youth player remains in the hunt for the competition’s ‘Golden Boot’ with 13 strikes to his name, whilst his additional six assists highlight his strong all-round play.

That can be even further emphasised with a glance at his passing stats as his 33 chances created and 291 successful passes also beat most players in his position. But it’s still his pure finishing that remains his strongest suit and is likely the reason why other sides will look to sign him this January.

His touches in the opposition box (183), successful dribbles (39) and times winning possession in the final third (24) can’t be beaten by other strikes in the division, and although he’s currently falling behind his 15.52 xG total, there’s still plenty to come from Al Hamadi from a development perspective, given his age.

Brad Hills – Accrington Stanley

Currently on loan, from Championship side Norwich City, young defender Brad Hills is enjoying a fantastic season with Accrington Stanley in England’s fourth tier and could be a transfer target for sides higher up the football pyramid this winter.

The 19-year-old has so far played 2234 minutes of action in League Two, helping his side to recover from their relegation last season with a string of impressive performances. Despite his young age, Hills showcases maturity beyond his years with his awareness and control on the ball helping him to operate as an astute ball-playing central defender at this level.

However, it’s definitely with his defensive ability where Hills has shone most this campaign. Of all centre-backs in the division, none have won more duels overall (275) or aerial duels in particular (188), while he currently also holds the top tallies for both interceptions (48) and successful tackles (33) – all factors which could seriously tempt a side into making a move for him over the next month.

Dan Kemp – MK Dons

Last on our list is MK Dons midfielder Dan Kemp who spent the first half of the campaign on loan at Swindon Town where he produced stunning performance after stunning performance.

Through 25 starts whilst out on loan at the County Ground, the 24-year-old managed to record 22 direct goal contributions for the club, the second-most of any player in the league. 14 of those came in the form of goals – the most of any attacking midfielder or winger – with his return witnessing both strikes from distance and close range finishes in equal measure. In fact, his xG total of just 7.96 highlights just how clinical his approach has been in front of goal this campaign, as does his 19.2% conversion rate from his 73 attempted shots.

As well as his fantastic finishing this term, Kemp also proved himself as a crucial provider for his former teammates. Whilst his eight assists is the joint second-most in League Two at present, in his position, no player has created more chances (58) and his overall influence throughout matches can be best highlighted by his total of 1255 touches of the ball, a figure in the top 5%.

It does need to be mentioned though, that if MK Dons boss Mike Williamson opts to play Kemp during his side’s next outing versus Tranmere on January 13th, then he won’t be able to move clubs this winter and feature for his potential new side. That’s because the midfielder will have featured for two different clubs in one season, the maximum amount allowed, which gives rival clubs just over a week’s time in order to agree a deal to sign the 24-year-old.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with all the latest Transfers, check out the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Sensible Transfer Targets: EFL Championship

By Nathan Evans

(All stats correct as of 04th January.)

Jacob Greaves – Hull City

After making over 150 first-team appearances for childhood club Hull City, 23-year-old Jacob Greaves has now developed into one of the Championship’s best all-round central defenders. As a result, he is again subject to interest from a number of Premier League clubs, according to reports, with a move away from MKM Stadium seeming feasible in January.

Equally as confident with the ball at his feet and he is with his positioning, anticipation and awareness, no center back in the competition this season has won more than his 164 successful duels to this point. That tally has in particular been aided by his aerial ability with Hull’s three-time ‘Young Player of the Year’ winning 69.4% of his aerial duels in addition.

With three assists to his name – the most of any central defender in England’s second-flight – Greaves has the skill set to operate as an elite ball-playing defender. His 16 chances created is also a league-high for his position, whilst his 2314 touches of the ball in general highlight his eagerness to get on the ball whenever possible. Due to that, and his young age to boot, expect a number of suitors to express interest in signing him this winter.

Morgan Whittaker – Plymouth Argyle

When Morgan Whittaker signed permanently for Plymouth for just £1million over the summer, few could have expected just how well he would settle into life as a Championship player. But with 13 goals, five assists and three man-to-the-match awards to his name so far, the former Swansea City and Derby County winger has been one of the division’s highest performers.

Currently in second spot for this season’s Golden Boot in the league, Whittaker has helped his newly-promoted side to keep well clear of the drop zone so far, especially due to his attacking output. As of the turn of the year, the 22-year-old has attempted more shots (106) and shots on target (39) than any other player in his position, whilst he ranks in the top 10% of wide midfielders for touches in the opposition’s penalty area (92), successful dribbles (45) and chances created (36) which all highlight why he’s already being linked with a potential move away from Home Park over the next month.

Jonathan Rowe – Norwich City

According to reports, Norwich City rejected a £15 million bid from Wolves in the summer for winger Jonathan Rowe and due to his performances ever since, that can only be viewed as a brilliant decision. With ten goals and two assists to his name across 24 Championship appearances so far this term, not only has the 20-year-old proved himself as a star at Carrow Road but he’s also operating as one of the best wide players in the league.

That’s ignited plenty of interest from Premier League clubs this January, especially as Rowe not only performs strongly in an attacking sense but is also able to help his side through his defensive output

With 126 duels won, 20 successful tackles and 11 interceptions this campaign, the 20-year-old is an all-round menace on the wing, whilst his 14 ball recoveries in the final third also emphasis his pressing qualities which could aid a big move away from Norfolk this winter.

Matt Grimes – Swansea City

After moving to Swansea City all the way back in January 2015, from Exeter, central midfielder Matt Grimes has gone on to make over 250 club appearances for the Welsh side – which has culminated in him captaining his side again this season.

With a hefty amount of time left on his contract, any potential suitors this winter may find it difficult to acquire his services but if they do, they’ll get a fantastic ball-playing midfielder who tends to heavily influence most of the matches that he features in. With 2479 touches and 1942 successful passes to his name this season, fewer players have been in possession of the ball as much as Grimes, and with two goals and four assists recorded in the process, he offers plenty of productivity from the centre of the park.

That doesn’t mean that the former England youth international shuns his defensive responsibilities though, as his 166 ball recoveries can attest to – a tally which ranks him within the top 5% of all players in his position in the Championship this term. Grimes also remains extremely efficient in winning his duels with a 60.7% success rate overall, another part of his game that interested clubs will have taken a keen interest in.

Daniel Ballard – Sunderland

After leaving boyhood club Arsenal for the Stadium of Light back in the summer of 2022, Daniel Ballard has grown into one of Sunderland’s most important players as they look to finally seal promotion back to the Premier League.

Starting all but one of his side’s 26 Championship matches this campaign, Ballard has racked up a 7.24 average FotMob rating for his performances, whilst looking strong at both ends of the field. As well as his consistent defensive performances which we’ll get to, his three goals from set pieces highlight that he can also influence matches in an attacking sense, especially as his tally of 48 touches in the opposition’s box and 26 attempted shots can only be bettered by a few other centre backs in the competition.

But it’s obviously in his defending where Ballard has looked a class above the rest this term, which could see a club higher up the English pyramid enquire about obtaining his services this winter.

This season, the defender has won 150 duels overall and has recovered possession for his side on 144 occasions, both figures at the higher end of the spectrum. His seven blocks have also helped Sunderland to keep eight clean sheets in the league and to concede just 1.1 goals per match on average, the fourth-lowest such tally in the division.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with all the latest Transfers, check out the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

FIVE games to follow this weekend: The big boys enter the domestic cups

In this weekend preview we summarise the best five games to follow on your match feed. And make a couple of suggestions for matches that you may otherwise miss.

By Bill Biss

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 FA Cup: Arsenal vs. Liverpool

When the draw for this round of England’s premier Cup competition was made, you couldn’t have put two more high profile, Premier League teams together. Liverpool and Arsenal appear to be key protagonists in the title race this season – they played a 1-1 draw at Anfield barely two weeks ago – and now we have the added bonus of Sunday’s side battle between the two in the Cup.

Both teams have a rich history in the competition, with Arsenal the record winners, and in fact, this tie has been the Final on three occasions (the last in 2001), so for the two to be drawn together so early is an anomaly. And it comes when the Gunners could do with a win – they’ve won just one of their last six (all comps) and have just lost consecutive games against West Ham and Fulham.

Liverpool’s only defeat since early November came in the Europa League, with qualification already secured, and with the side heavily rotated, and Jürgen Klopp’s side now sat top of the league by three points.

There may be the temptation for both managers to make significant changes to the line-ups that squared up against one another, back on 23 December, but considering both sides’ current momentum, and the pressure to get a result, perhaps that won’t be the case.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 FA Cup: Sunderland vs. Newcastle United

Before that tie though, on Saturday, rivalries are renewed in England’s North East, in another FA Cup tie, when Championship side Sunderland faced hated near-neighbours Newcastle.

The Tyne–Wear Derby (or Wear-Tyne) hasn’t been a regular feature in the schedules for a while, in fact their last meeting came in the Premier League back in 2016. Both clubs have been through their ups and downs since – Newcastle dropping out of the top flight at the end of that season, Sunderland doing the same the season after, then going down again, and spending four seasons in the third tier.

Back to the present day though, and Newcastle, now looking to establish themselves as Champions League regulars, have hit a bit of a blip. They’ve won just two games in the nine that they’ve played since the start of December (all comps) and they’ve lost their last three over the festive period – to Luton, Forest, and Liverpool.

For Sunderland, this campaign is about backing up their successful return to the Championship last season, and ensuring that they at least make the play-offs again. They currently sit sixth and come in to the game off the back of a three-game unbeaten run. For the fans, and the club, this should be a great opportunity to test themselves against their rivals. That message perhaps didn’t reach every department at the club, though, when one of the bars at Sunderland’s stadium got decorated in Newcastle colours, as a welcome for visiting guests, and then hastily redecorated.

🇪🇸 Copa Del Rey: Barbastro vs. Barcelona

Forgive us, if you’re unfamiliar with some of the team names mentioned in the column this week, but this really is the beauty of major Cup competitions.

Take a team like Unión Deportiva Barbastro, who, for example, have followed their recent promotion to Spain’s regional fourth tier, with a run in the Copa Del Rey that will see them take on the might of Barcelona in Spain’s Copa Del Rey on Sunday evening.

Xavi’s Catalan giants were in the Canary Islands on Thursday night, where they got a last gasp league win, thanks to İlkay Gündoğan’s 93rd minute penalty. They’ll now travel to the town of Barbastro, in the province of Huesca, where the 16,000 inhabitants have been desperately seeking tickets for the game at the club’s 3,000 capacity stadium.

That capacity has been doubled, temporarily, but not a lot has been done to the pitch, something that will no doubt, not be lost on the superstar visitors. The minnows have already beaten top flight Almería en route to this stage of the competition but this is by far and away the biggest game in the club’s history. Barcelona will be hoping it becomes nothing more than a footnote in their records.

🇫🇷 Coupe de France: Revel vs. PSG

France’s main domestic Cup competition is renowned for throwing up stories like Sunday’s clash between Revel and Paris Saint-Germain. After all, it’s a tournament that saw 5271 teams enter, from all levels of French football, and indeed from the country’s numerous overseas departments and territories. That has now been whittled down to 64, with the giants of Ligue 1 joining at this stage.

And sixth tier amateurs Revel were the lucky side to pull the biggest name possible out of the hat, and with ‘home advantage’, as is traditional – but then you may have already seen news of the draw when it went viral late last year.

Revel currently sit top of their division but for the squad, this game, is probably all they’ve been thinking about since that draw was made. Their run to the R64 has seen them defeat sides from the eighth tier and the fifth tier so far.

PSG come in to the contest five points clear in Ligue 1, and on the back of a week where they’ve already lifted silverware, thanks to a 2-0 victory over Toulouse in the Trophée des Champions, or Super Cup, on Wednesday night. We’ll have to wait and see how many of the star names from that line-up also feature in the weekend’s game.

🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter vs. Hellas Verona

In Italy, they dealt with the remaining round of 16 ties in the Coppa Italia during midweek, so it’s back to normal service over the weekend. And in the first game of the day, on Saturday, leaders Inter host Hellas Verona at the San Siro.

Having won the Coppa last season, Inter were surprisingly dumped out of the competition, by Bologna, in a game played before Christmas. Since then, they got back to winning ways against Lecce but were then held to a 1-1 draw by Genoa in what was their final Serie A fixture of 2023. To date, they’ve only lost one league game and they’ve conceded just eight goals across 18 rounds of action. Sadly for Simone Inzaghi, that particularly strong first half of the campaign has come at a time where Juventus are producing similar results – they too have lost only once and have let only three more goals. But they have won one fewer meaning Inter come in to the weekend with a two point advantage.

For their part, Verona travel to Milan having struggled to get going this season. The did win both their opening fixtures back in August but they then went 15 without a win, until a third victory came against Cagliari in the build-up to Christmas. A further defeat, at home to Salernitana, has left them 17th in the table, just outside the relegation zone on goal difference, at the time of writing.

Plus two hidden gems from a little deeper in your match feed…

🇫🇷 Coupe de France: LOSC vs. Golden Lion

We couldn’t resist another story from the Coupe de France! Similarly to PSG – fellow Ligue 1 side, and six time winners of the competition, Lille, will also be lining up against unfamiliar opposition. On Saturday, they face the magnificently named Golden Lion FC, who are based in Saint-Joseph on the isle of Martinique, in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

That’s right, the qualifiers from one of the overseas departments are making the near 7,000km journey having earned the right to face one of Frances’ most famous sides.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 FA Cup: Wigan Athletic vs. Manchester United

We’ve included this fixture because it has quite literally been hidden away from your match feed for the weekend, what with it being held over for the TV broadcast slot on Monday evening.

Under pressure Manchester United boss Erik Ten Hag takes his side on the short journey to visit a side currently struggling, and placed 17th in League One. Nothing but a comfortable win will do for the Red Devils.

If you want to follow any of the games mentioned above, click on the relevant link and tap the bell icon to receive all the key match updates.

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Cover Image from IMAGO

Jan

2024

FA Cup Third Round Preview

The third round of the FA Cup sees Premier League and Championship teams enter the mix. Okay, it didn’t start with many fireworks, as Crystal Palace and Everton played out a goalless draw on Thursday night, but this is when the competition is supposed to pick up the pace with the potential for cup upsets and giant killings. With this in mind, here’s our preview.

By Sam McGuire

The Tyne-Wear Derby

Newcastle United and Sunderland face off for the first time since 2016 in what could be an explosive Saturday afternoon fixture.

The Magpies are winless in four and have lost their last three matches. Combine this run of form with their Champions League elimination and it is easy to understand why Eddie Howe finds himself under pressure. A loss to Sunderland could seal his fate, just months after guiding Newcastle to a top-four finish in the Premier League. Football is a ruthless sport though.

By comparison, Sunderland are finding their feet under new manager Michael Beale. The Black Cats are unbeaten in three and have kept a clean sheet in two of those games.

The Stadium of Light is going to be rocking for this one.

Potential for Preston

Championship side Preston travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Premier League giants Chelsea on Saturday evening. Ryan Lowe had the Lilywhites playing some brilliant football earlier on in the campaign but they now find themselves in 14th position in England’s second tier having lost four of their last five.

However, they have shown that they have the ability to up their game against certain opponents. For example, they beat Leeds United and took a point off of Southampton. Matching an inconsistent Chelsea team might not be out of the question.

Mauricio Pochettino’s men beat Luton in their last Premier League outing but it wasn’t a deserved three points. In fact, all of the stats suggest the Hatters had every right to feel aggrieved.

The potential really is there for Preston to cause an upset.

Can the champions retain their crown?

Manchester City kick off their FA Cup campaign with a home match against Huddersfield Town. Perhaps surprisingly, the win over Manchester United last season was just the second time that the Citizens have lifted the trophy under Pep Guardiola.

No team have retained the FA Cup since Arsenal in 2015. So there is still something for Guardiola to achieve in English football after all.

This should be a routine victory for City. Huddersfield are struggling in the Championship and find themselves in 21st position. Only Rotherham (three) have won fewer matches than the Terriers (five) and they have one of the worst defensive records in the league having conceded 44 goals in their 26 matches.

It should be one-way traffic at the Etihad, but the magic of the cup will keep people intrigued.

League one hosts League Two

Shrewsbury Town, a team in mid-table in League One, host League Two promotion hopefuls Wrexham on Sunday.

It might not be the big blockbuster Wrexham fans might’ve wanted but it does present them with an opportunity to progress. A prolonged cup run is more beneficial than a one-off Third Round match against Premier League opposition.

Only Stockport and Notts County (both of whom have played one more game) have more goals than Wrexham in the league this season while Shrewsbury are the second-lowest scorers in League One, with just 17 to their name this term. The Red Dragons will no doubt feel as though they have the firepower to blow their way into the Fourth Round.

A statement victory for Wrexham would make people sit up and take notice of them as a viable threat in this competition.

An Emirates showdown

The match of the round? Possibly. Arsenal host Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday afternoon looking for revenge on the Reds.

Jurgen Klopp’s men overturned a 1-0 deficit at Anfield against the Gunners in mid-December to claim a point. In truth, the hosts should’ve won. However, since that game, Arsenal have lost back-to-back matches and their title credentials are being scrutinised, with Mikel Arteta’s team now in fourth position in the English top-flight.

A win over Liverpool, even if it just in the FA Cup and teams would be weakened, would silence a number of doubters. It is a result that could kickstart their season again and at an important stage of the campaign.

The end of the Ten Hag Era?

Manchester United travel to struggling League One side Wigan Athletic on Monday evening. Anything other than a win here could spell the end for Erik Ten Hag as the boss of the Red Devils.

The Dutchman guided them to the final last season. A Third Round exit would be disastrous in what is already a forgettable campaign. United are mid-table in the Premier League and have been knocked out of Europe entirely following a dismal showing in the Champions League. This is the final opportunity for a piece of silverware and the draw was kind to them.

If this goes wrong, he is surely on the brink. Wigan are 17th in League One and have just one win in their last six matches across all competitions.

(Imagesfrom IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the FA Cup live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Sensible Transfer Targets: League One

With the January transfer window open, we take a look at five players who could be on the move this month, from each of the English Football League’s divisions. From young prospects to in-form stars, here’s our selection from League One clubs.

By Nathan Evans

(All stats correct as of 03rd January.)

Ronnie Edwards – Peterborough United

Still only 20-years-old, central defender Ronnie Edwards is enjoying another solid season at promotion-chasing Peterborough United. With 25 starts under his belt, which has taken his total tally to 117 appearances for the club, the current England U20 star is reportedly now being chased by several Premier League and Championship clubs as a result.

This season, Edwards has truly announced himself as one of the country’s best upcoming ball-playing defenders. When ranked against all other centre backs in the competition, no player in his position has recorded more touches of the ball (2421), played more successful passes (1975) or holds a better pass accuracy rate (91.6%) than him.

He also excels where needed in a truly defensive sense too, proving himself to be strong in the tackle, whilst also holding the anticipation and positioning to make crucial interceptions when called upon. His tally of 122 ball recoveries also goes a long way to highlighting his ability to read the game well, a trait that could help him to secure a sizeable transfer in the near future.

Eiran Cashin – Derby County

Another young star who could make the move from League One to a higher division this winter is 22-year-old Derby County centre-back Eiran Cashin, who has enjoyed a stellar campaign so far in 2023/24. After racking up his 100th first-team appearance for the Rams last weekend, the club subsequently activated a clause in his contract which extended his current deal until the summer of 2025.

But even with that in place, the former Premier League outfit could struggle to keep hold of their prized defender this January with his statistics pointing to the fact that he is currently operating at a higher level.

In almost every area, Cashin is ranked inside the top 5% of all central defenders in the league this campaign, from successful tackles (34) to attempted shots (24) and just about everything else in between. He remains a physically dominant centre back, with 189 duels won and 40 interceptions made, but he also shines with the ball at his feet, completing 103 long balls and creating 13 chances for his teammates – both high figures amongst his peers. Such is his all-round ability, don’t be surprised to see the Irish youth international move to a higher division during this transfer window.

Cameron Brannagan – Oxford United

After now making over 250 first-team appearances for Oxford United, 27-year-old midfielder Cameron Brannagan could be a man in demand this transfer window after several clubs recently expressed their desire to sign him.

Simply put, the former Liverpool youngster is proving to be too good to play in League One this season. With seven goals and five assists through 23 league outings, Brannagan currently holds the highest FotMob rating in the entire competition at 7.78 and when you dig into his advanced statistics, it’s not difficult to see why.

When ranked against other central midfielders in England’s third tier, none have attempted more shots (59), created more chances (49), recorded more shots on target (24) or have completed more successful crosses (52). Brannagan also ranks in the top five percent for successful passes, accurate long balls and overall touches of the ball which further highlight both his importance to Oxford but also his all-round skill set which could appeal to a few Championship clubs in January.

Alfie May – Charlton Athletic

The oldest player on this list at 30, Charlton’s Alfie May has been in stunning goalscoring form again this campaign, netting 15 goals in just 22 League One outings. That sees him leading the Golden Boot race in the division alongside Blackpool’s Jordan Rhodes, but with his current side sat in mid-table obscurity, a team higher up the league or even in the Championship could take a punt on him this winter.

In short, May has proven himself to be one of the sharpest strikers in the league over 2023 – scoring the most goals of any player across England’s professional leagues. This season alone, alongside his unbeatable goal tally, no striker has attempted more shots (83) or more shots on target (33), whilst raking up an xG total of 10.88 in the process. His return of 15 strikes from that total highlights his lethal nature in front of net which could prove tempting to other clubs this January, especially with his contract only having one more year left on it after the completion of this campaign.

Owen Moxon – Carlisle United

Arguably the least well-known player on this list, Carlisle United’s Owen Moxon has played a huge part in their recent success, as the club enjoyed promotion from League Two last campaign. It hasn’t gone too well since though, as the Cumbrian side remain in the relegation spots at present, and as such, the 25-year-old could be a transfer target for other League One sides this winter.

With an average FotMob rating of 7.36 across his 23 league appearances this campaign, Moxon remains as one of the most in-form central midfielders in the division at present. Normally deployed in a box-to-box role, the former Annan Athletic star is equally as adept at pushing up the field offensively as he is defending his own back line.

His attacking output is best emphasised by the fact that his 45 attempted shots rank him in the top 2% of all central midfielders in the competition, whilst his three goals and three assists showcase his ability to directly influence matches in an attacking manner.

But Moxon is perhaps better recognised for his defensive work, with no midfielder in the competition recording more successful tackles (46) or winning more duels (169) than him. With that being the case, Carlisle could struggle to keep hold of their number four over the next month, especially as they continue to falter at the wrong end of the standings.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with all the latest Transfers, check out the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Transfer of the Week: Why Vitor Roque is the striker Barcelona need

Over the course of the January transfer window, we will take a closer look at the best of the week’s business with our ‘Transfer of the Week’ special features. To kick things off, here is a look at why Vitor Roque could come in and make an instant impact at Barcelona – we won’t judge him on the 12 minute cameo he made against Las Palmas, on Thursday night.

By Neel Shelat

Despite all their financial difficulties, Barcelona had a major transfer pre-arranged before the window even opened as Athletico Paranaense’s Vitor Roque flew in from Brazil in a deal worth a reported €30 million, with a roughly equal amount of potential add-ons attached to that as well.

As they find themselves some way off league leaders Real Madrid at the halfway stage of the season, the Blaugrana will hope that this level of investment yields quick and impactful returns. The good news for them is that – on paper at least – all the signs look positive.

Simply put, Roque is the exact profile of striker Barcelona need right now to plug in and play in Xavi’s current tactical system. Although Robert Lewandowski’s experience and excellence throughout his career cannot be questioned, he is struggling this season and, some say, limiting his side’s attacking potential. So, he could do with a bit of competition, especially of the sort that is better suited to the system.

That essentially is the premise of this piece, so let us now dig a little deeper into the specifics of each statement. First of all, let us try and understand what sort of player Roque is.

The 18-year-old Brazilian forward has primarily been used as a striker in his short career so far, although he can also do a job as a left winger. His player traits radar should give us a good idea of what his profile is like.

At first glance, this might not look quite so encouraging. Roque appears to be a pretty one-dimensional forward who just deals in goals, not creating too much for his teammates, and showing a very low involvement on the ball in the build-up play. Once we look at what Barcelona need, though, it will become clear why this is actually a positive.

Before that, it is worth going over Roque’s record so far. He returned 11 goals in all competitions in 2022, when he was mostly used as a substitute by both Cruzeiro and Athletico Paranaense in either half of the season. After settling in Paraná in 2023, 19 of his 25 Brasileirão Série A appearances last year were starts, and he returned an impressive 12 goals and 3 assists.

His shotmap also looks quite good, with a very high volume of shots taken from dangerous positions close to the net – which is where almost all of his senior goals have come from.

From the rest of his stats, Barcelona should quite like what they see in his possession numbers (per 90 minutes – see below). Although Roque has a very low involvement in terms of touches overall, he does come alive in the box and always threatens with the ball at his feet thanks to his dribbling danger.

The youngster’s dribbling technique might not always be the best, but he possesses a quick change of direction and great tenacity that no defender will enjoy facing.

So, why should Lewandowski’s place in the team be threatened by Roque’s arrival? Well, for one, the Polish international is enduring a very tough spell in front of goal as he is underperforming his xG by a significant margin and missing a fair few big chances along the way.

Consequently, this is impacting the team as a whole as Barcelona have the highest xG tally in La Liga but are not even among the top three when it comes to actual goals scored. Surely, replacing a misfiring striker with a clinical finisher can only do them good?

Moreover, Lewandowski has also often negatively impacted Barça’s build-up play by dropping off into midfield too much. Since Xavi generally likes to deploy a four-player box midfield in possession, there is no need for the striker to drop in and crowd it out, but the Polish striker keeps doing so rather than staying high and threatening in behind to keep the opposition centre-backs on their toes.

This is precisely why Barcelona will like Roque’s lack of overall involvement through touches. Ideally, the young Brazilian will bring the precise balance of off-ball threat in the build-up phase and on-ball threat in the final third that Xavi wants from his striker.

With that being said, it is worth noting that given the congested nature of the fixture schedule and the fact that Roque is a teenager moving away from his home country for the first time in his life, he must be afforded some time to settle into new surroundings. Ideally, he should be rotated with Lewandowski for the rest of this season as Barcelona do not have any other recognised No. 9s, and of course, the long-term goal will be for him to take over as the first-choice striker as the Pole approaches the twilight of his career.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with all the latest Transfers, check out the FotMob Transfer Centre. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

FotMob Feature: The Williams Brothers shining bright in LaLiga

Not for 17 years had two brothers scored for the same team in the same LaLiga match before Iñaki and Nico Williams did it for Athletic Club last year. The two siblings found the back of the net in an eerily similar way – bursting in behind before cooly sliding home a finish – and have pushed each other to new heights in the 12 months since.

By Graham Ruthven

The Williams brothers have been the driving force behind a resurgent Athletic Club team currently in the mix for a top four finish. Between them, they have registered 11 goals and eight assists in LaLiga this season, spearheading an attack that is now considered one of the strongest in the Spanish top flight.

Athletic Club signed off before the winter break with a run of five wins from seven league games. They have scored more goals at home than any other team in LaLiga this season, making San Mamés a fortress, and are averaging over 14 shots a game – only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Sevilla are averaging more.

Ernesto Valverde’s team haven’t lost a match in La Liga since October and have lost just three matches in total this season – to Barcelona, Real Madrid, and regional rivals Real Sociedad. The 2-0 win over Atlético Madrid before Christmas saw Athletic Club produce their best, most complete performance of the campaign – Atleti were fortunate to only lose by two.

Nico netted a stunning strike in the victory over Diego Simeone’s men, highlighting the way his game has developed this season. The 21-year-old’s talent has been clear for some time. He made his league debut as a teenager and received his first call-up to the Spain squad at just 20 years old. Now, though, Nico is adding consistency to his performances.

This is something that evaded Iñaki for years. He too made his LaLiga breakthrough at a young age, but struggled to take the next step in his development. Iñaki recorded 13 combined goals and assists in only his second full league season for Athletic Club, but wouldn’t achieve those sort of numbers for another three seasons.

There were flashes of brilliance from Iñaki – like the solo effort against Sevilla that won 2018/19 Goal of the Season, and the extra time winner, against Barcelona in the 2021 Spanish Supercopa final – but they were too few and far between for him to be considered one of the world’s best forwards. The consistency just wasn’t there.

As the junior of the two brothers by eight years, Nico has Iñaki to look to for inspiration – but also for caution. The pair are at different stages of their careers with Iñaki (29) in his peak years and Nico (21) still relatively green in his development. While Iñaki is an Athletic Club icon, he has likely missed the chance to reach an even higher level. Nico could surpass his brother’s achievements.

An interesting aspect of Williams brothers’ dynamic as siblings is in the way Nico’s emergence has settled Iñaki. The older brother has embraced his role as a mentor – see how Iñaki told Nico to put his runners-up medal back around his neck after the 2022 Spanish Supercopa final – and that has helped him achieve a higher, more consistent level in his own game – Iñaki is on course for the most productive season of his career.

That’s if he stays at San Mamés for the full campaign. Iñaki has been linked with Aston Villa who are reportedly keen to add the 29-year-old to their squad in January. Nico is also believed to be on the radar of both Barcelona and Real Madrid who both view the 21-year-old as one of the best young talents in Spain.

For the time being, though, Iñaki and Nico embody the energy of Valverde’s Athletic Club. The pair have electrified the Basque team, and the home crowd at San Mamés which had lost its fervour until this season – the stadium is once again one of the most daunting in La Liga for away teams to visit, as Atleti recently found out.

Iñaki (Ghana) and Nico (Spain) play for different national teams, with the former off to AFCON later this month, but Athletic Club is the unbreakable footballing connection between them. The Basque club famously cherishes its native roots, only fielding players from the region, and their two best players have a particularly strong bond in more than one way.

(Images from IMAGO)

You can follow every Athletic Club game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Jan

2024

Rate him or Slate him: Darwin Nunez is an Enigma

The chaotic Liverpool forward simultaneously makes the Reds more of a threat while also being almost solely responsible for their erratic nature in the penalty area due to his inconsistent finishing.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

With him in the starting XI, Jürgen Klopp’s side are more dangerous. That is indisputable. Liverpool don’t rack up a record-breaking Expected Goals haul against Newcastle United without the No. 9 leading the line.

The German manager said as much in his post-match interview: “We were talking outside, it was 100% the right decision to bring Darwin today because he kept [Sven] Botman and [Fabian] Schar together, that gave us the space for everything else. It is completely different if Cody [Gakpo] is there.”

However, there is an argument to be made that we might’ve been talking about a record-breaking scoreline had it not been for the former Benfica man. He had a total of eight shots and was substituted in the 64th minute having amassed an Expected Goals total of 1.7. He missed three big chances at Anfield on Monday evening.

The 24-year-old now leads the way in the Premier League for Big Chances Missed with 18, one more than Erling Haaland. These missed chances aren’t as much of an issue for the City man though due to his 14 goals and 18.4% conversion rate. By comparison, Darwin has five Premier League goals this term and a conversion rate of just 6.1%.

Of those in the top 10 for Big Chances Missed, only Rasmus Højlund has a worse conversion rate (3.7%).

These two metrics alone are enough for people to declare Darwin to be a poor finisher. But that isn’t necessarily true.

The numbers paint a picture of an unlucky finisher. In fact, he’s arguably the unluckiest forward in the Premier League.

Darwin has an Expected Goals total for the season in the Premier League of 8.66. Generally speaking, when a player is underperforming their underlying numbers, it is an issue with finishing and this is shown when the Expected Goals on Target total is looked at. This stats assigns a value to where efforts land on target rather than where they are taken from. For example, a shot from 18-yards out may have an xG value of just 0.07 but if it hits the bottom corner, it will have an xG on Target value of 0.45. In this scenario, the shooter has increased the value of the attempt by 0.38.

Poor finishers, however, will devalue attempts. They do this by hitting shots centrally or at comfortable heights for goalkeepers.

Gabriel Jesus is someone who regularly underperforms when compared to his xG. This season, the Arsenal forward has an xG total of 4.84 but has scored just three goals. His xG on Target total is 3.83. He’s devalued his efforts by an entire goal, so that explains why he’s underperforming as a finisher.

The Liverpool No. 9 doesn’t have this issue though. He’s actually adding value to his efforts with the placement. He’s just one of five players in the Premier League to have an xG on Target total in double digits (10.2) this season.

Mohamed Salah (14.5) leads the way with Haaland (13.5) in second. Jarrod Bowen (11.8) and Dominic Solanke (10.2) make up the top five, along with Darwin. The Uruguayan is the only player within this group not to have a minimum of 11 goals in the English top-flight this term. That alone highlights how much of an outlier he is right now. He’s on five goals, Solanke has the same xG on Target total as him but he’s on 12.

Luck plays a part in finishing. While some players do make their own luck, sometimes it is just against you.

Darwin’s shot map suggests luck has deserted him at times this term.

He has hit the woodwork five times and a number of the efforts he’s aimed towards the bottom corner have been saved. An inch here or there and he’s vying with Haaland and Salah for the Golden Boot.

There is, of course, an element of poor finishing to factor into this too. He’s far from flawless in all of this and he has spurned a number of high-value opportunities. However, just because he’s missed those does not make him a poor finisher. Every striker is capable of missing. In fact, Salah and Haaland have missed sitters this season. The difference is the goals they score make people forget the misses. Whereas Darwin’s efforts just aren’t going in, no matter how well-struck or well-placed they are.

That is more bad luck than bad finishing. If he keeps on doing the same thing though, he’s surely going to find himself amongst the goals. Bad luck can’t last forever, can it?

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.