Page 124 – The Pulse of Football

Apr

2024

Premier League Review: Easter Weekend

We have new Premier League leaders. Domestic football returned following the international break and a number of teams certainly made up for lost time. We had goals galore across multiple games, epic comebacks and genuine moments of madness.

With this in mind, here’s your Premier League review.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

A seven goal thriller at St James’ Park

Newcastle United and West Ham United played out a thriller on Saturday afternoon.

The hosts took an early lead courtesy of an Alexander Isak penalty before the visitors scored three unanswered goals to take a commanding lead early in the second half.

Isak converted a second spot kick with just 13 minutes of normal time remaining to set up an exciting finish but few would’ve imagined the game going the way it did.

Harvey Barnes replaced the injured Miguel Almirón just 10 minutes after the Paraguayan was brought on. The former Leicester City attacker levelled things up in the 83rd minute before winning the game in the 90th minute. There was still time for Anthony Gordon to be sent off but Newcastle held on for all three points.

Eddie Howe’s side are now just a point behind seventh placed West Ham with a game in hand.

Burnley show great resilience at Stamford Bridge

The first half ended on a low for Burnley during this trip to Stamford Bridge. A questionable refereeing decision presented Cole Palmer with an opportunity to open the scoring from the penalty spot and his nonchalant Panenka gave the hosts the lead.

The contentious foul on Mykhalio Mudryk saw Lorenz Assignon sent off for a second bookable offence and Vincent Kompany’s reaction to the call was deemed excessive and he too was shown a red card.

So, down to 10 men and with their manager now in the stands, few would’ve expected Burnley to rally. They did though. On two occasions.

Josh Cullen levelled things up early in the second half but a late Palmer strike seemed to have won the game for the Blues. That was until Dara O’Shea popped up with an equaliser in the 81st minute.

Chelsea missed the chance to move into the top half of the table while the point, in these circumstances, could prove to be an important one for the Clarets at the end of the season.

Muniz extends his purple patch

The second half exploded into life in the game between Sheffield United and Fulham.

The away side dominated the opening 45 minutes, seeing 73% of the ball and having twice as many efforts as their hosts. Yet it was Sheffield United who took the lead when Ben Brereton Díaz opened the scoring just before the hour mark. That advantage didn’t last long though with João Palhinha getting Marco Silva’s men back on level terms just four minutes later.

Oli McBurnie restored the lead for the Blades and Brereton Díaz added a quickfire third. The game appeared to be won.

Fulham didn’t give up though. Bobby Reid added a second for the away side in the 86th minute to set up a grandstand finish.

Rodrigo Muniz, who had seven shots against the Blades, rifled home the equaliser in stoppage time to make it five goal involvements in four outings for the Brazilian attacker.

For a second successive match, Sheffield United have allowed a two goal lead to slip.

Stoppage time drama at the Gtech Stadium

Manchester United were just moments away from a smash and grab victory against Brentford.

The hosts had dominated the Red Devils throughout, having almost three times as many efforts as the visitors, but Mason Mount’s first goal for Manchester United in the 96th minute had the game won for Erik ten Hag’s side.

All they had to do was see out the final few moments to record a big three points.

It wasn’t to be.

Ivan Toney, who had a total of nine shots against the Red Devils on Saturday evening, showed a great touch and unbelievable composure to wriggle free of Lisandro Martínez before firing a pass across goal for centre-back Kristoffer Ajer to fire last André Onana in the 99th minute. It was a well deserved equaliser. Thomas Frank will likely be disappointed his side couldn’t pick up all three points after such a strong showing.

Klopp comes out on top

Liverpool are once again top of the Premier League after another comeback victory. The Reds fell behind against Brighton inside of two minutes. Roberto De Zerbi hadn’t lost to Jürgen Klopp in his four meetings with the German tactician and his Seagulls side looked threatening throughout the early stages.

The Reds grew into the game and Luis Díaz levelled things up just before the half hour mark.

From that point on, it was practically all Liverpool and Mohamed Salah spurned a number of chances to put the Reds ahead. He did, however, net what turned out to be the winner with an assured left-footed finish after an unbelievable, defence splitting pass from Alexis Mac Allister in the 65th minute.

The Reds almost added a third after good play between Darwin Núñez and Salah but Díaz was narrowly offside.

Klopp’s side did enough to see out the game and return to the top of the table and they remained there following the 0-0 draw between Manchester City and Arsenal on Sunday afternoon.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

European Hot Shots: Stuttgart’s surprise package Serhou Guirassy

It has been a season of surprise for VfB Stuttgart.

By Sam McGuire

The 2022/23 campaign saw them avoid relegation after beating 2.Bundesliga side Hamburg in a play-off. They lost captain Wataru Endo to Liverpool, centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos joined West Ham United, first-choice goalkeeper Florian Müller signed for Bundesliga rivals SC Freiburg while Borna Sosa, the highly-rated full-back, moved to Ajax.

In one single summer, four key players departed the MHPArena.

Many tipped them for another relegation battle yet as we head into April, Sebastian Hoeneß has his side sitting in third place in the Bundesliga and in a strong position to claim an unlikely Champions League spot.

VfB Stuttgart are six points clear of fourth-placed Borussia Dortmund and seven clear of RB Leipzig, the team currently in fifth. Only Bayern Munich (19) and Bayer Leverkusen (22) have won more games than Die Roten (18) this season. With just eight matches remaining in the Bundesliga, it would take something truly astonishing for Hoeneß and his players to miss out on a deserved top-four place.

Key to their success this season has been Serhou Guirassy.

The 28-year-old could best be described as a nomadic striker. Since making his debut during the 2013/14 campaign for Laval B in the third tier of French football, Guirassy has turned out for nine teams. Granted, a few of those have been B teams. But still, he has moved about an awful lot and has never really been able to find a home.

He’s played for the likes of Lille, Rennes, Auxerre and FC Köln before finding himself on loan with VfB last season. Despite the team’s struggles, Guirassy had a successful year from an individual point of view. He found the back of the net on 11 occasions which, until this term, was a career-best return.

With so much change for Stuttgart, few would’ve expected him to build on those performances having made his move a permanent one in the summer. Hoeneß, to his credit, has made it work though. In the recent win over Hoffenheim, the starting XI included four summer signings (five if you want to include Guirassy) while another two new faces made an appearance off of the bench.

This squad overhaul has sparked something within this Stuttgart team though. Players have taken their game to new heights. Guirassy certainly falls into that category.

Guirassy, now valued at €42million, has netted 22 goals and has one assist to his name in just 1,498 minutes. Reportedly a target for Bayern Munich, Spurs and Manchester United, he is second in the race for the Bundesliga Golden Boot while only Harry Kane (38) can eclipse his 23 goal contributions this term.

Only Kane (one) has a higher Expected goals per 90 average than the Stuttgart forward (0.89) while no player in the German top-flight can better Guirassy’s return of 1.32 goals per 90.

What makes all of this even more impressive is the fact he isn’t heavily reliant on volume. The No. 9 doesn’t rank in the top 10 for shots per 90 in the Bundesliga and is averaging 3.8 (13th highest).

Yet there has been a jump in output this season when compared with last term. For example, he’s averaged more shots, up from the 2.6 he was attempting last season. This, in turn, has seen his Expected Goals average spike from 0.6 to 0.89. The big difference, however, is his shot placement.

Last season, his Expected Goals on Target average was 0.62. He wasn’t necessarily adding value to his effort but he wasn’t devaluing them either. He was just a consistent threat. This season has been a different story. His Expected Goals on Target average has risen to 1.01 on a per 90 basis.

His finishing has been better and this has resulted in him scoring more goals. It sounds simple, but to continuously add value to your efforts is not something many strikers can do. Guirassy’s is hitting the corners. He’s also landing over 50% of his efforts on target. This is a good combination and it is why he’s managed to jump from goal threat to goalscorer over the past 12 months. For context, last season he was only getting 40% of his shots on target. Still a good amount but he’s managed to scale things this term.

Bayern reportedly viewed him as a back-up to Kane and it is easy to see why. He makes the most of his opportunities. He’s been the surprise package in the surprise team in the Bundesliga this term and that is some achievement.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every VfB Stuttgart game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

FIVE games to follow this weekend: Man City vs. Arsenal, Der Klassiker, Le Classique, and more

In this weekend preview we summarise the best five games to follow on your match feed. And make a couple of suggestions for matches that you may otherwise miss.

By Bill Biss

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League: Manchester City vs. Arsenal

Club football has only just returned following the last international break of the season but we’re straight back to it in the Premier League title race. And Sunday’s match feed features all three protagonists.

First, Liverpool face an inconsistent Brighton side at Anfield. And then, at the Etihad, Manchester City host Arsenal. As it stands, the Gunners hold a narrow advantage in the standings – ahead of Liverpool on goal difference and one point better off than City. But by the evening of Easter Sunday perhaps the picture will be somewhat clearer?

Arsenal come in to the game on the back of eight straight victories in the league, a run that dates back to December. They’ve scored 33 goals in those games, including three in a notable win over Liverpool.

City, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last 22 competitive games, and that’s despite the fact that, at times, Pep Guardiola’s side haven’t looked to be at their fluent best. Something probably has to give, or perhaps momentum will shift again, just as it did when City and Liverpool played out a 1-1 draw earlier in this month.

Arsenal may just have the psychological edge having eventually beaten City on penalties in the Community Shield that raised the curtain on the season, and then again, in the league meeting at the Emirates in October.

🇩🇪 Bundesliga: Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund

The somewhat surprising news that Bayer Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso is staying put this summer, Bayern’s no. 1 candidate to replace the departing Thomas Tuchel, will have been taken as a massive snub in Bavaria. But there’s no time for fans of the German superpower to bemoan their luck because there’s the not-so-small matter of Der Klassiker coming up on Saturday evening!

This might only be second vs. fourth, as things stand, but it remains the Bundesliga fixture to look out for. Germany’s two biggest clubs going head-to-head at the Allianz Arena.

For Dortmund, there’s plenty at stake. Edin Terzic’s side are well off the pace – 20 points off top, 10 points off their bitter rivals, and they also suffered a humiliating 4-0 defeat to Bayern in front of their own fans back in November. They can’t afford to go through that again. And despite the temptation to throw their lot in to their successful Champions League campaign – they face Atlético Madrid in the last eight in two weeks time – they must also concentrate on securing a top four finish as well.

And the key to that will probably be stopping the service to Bayern frontman Harry Kane. England’s captain notched a hat-trick in that earlier fixture and has now amassed an astonishing 31 league goals in just 26 appearances in his debut season in Germany.

Bayern, rather obviously, remain the league’s top scorers and they lead most of the major metrics bar the one that matters most – the points table. Perhaps ominously for Dortmund, Bayern won their last two matches prior to the international break by an aggregate scoreline of 13-3, putting eight past Mainz and five past Darmstadt.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1: Marseille vs. PSG

There’s a number of important derbies in France this weekend – the Derby d’Nord between Lille and Lens takes place at the time this article goes live on Friday night, and there’s a meeting between Breton sides Lorient and surprise package, Stade Brestois on Sunday lunchtime. But the league are saving the best to last with Le Classique rounding off the Easter Sunday schedule.

League leaders PSG have a whopping 12 point lead on Brest and they’ll be looking to maintain that (at least) when they visit traditional rivals Marseille in the cauldron that is the Stade Vélodrome. The Parisians are currently on a 24-game unbeaten run in all competitions and they remain in contention in both the Champions League and Coupe de France, along with what looks likely to be another Ligue 1 title defence. In what is almost definitely Kylian Mbappé’s final season in the capital (we’ll only believe it when we see him in a Madrid shirt), the captain once again leads the way in the race for the golden boot. He’s on 24 league goals, nine more than nearest rival, Lille’s Jonathan David.

It’s been something of a tumultuous season for Marseille. The southern club are on their third managerial change, with Jean-Louis Gasset taking over from Gennaro Gattuso in February, who himself replaced Marcelino in September. Consequently, l’OM sit down in seventh, and outside the European places. There’s still time for them to recover though, and what better way to do that than landing a blow against the old enemy. They lost at Rennes last time out but do still have a Europa League quarter-final to look forward too, where they’ve been drawn against Portuguese giants Benfica.

🇪🇸 LaLiga: Real Madrid vs. Athletic Club

Two of the three sides never to have been relegated from LaLiga meet in the Spanish capital on Sunday evening, with leaders Real Madrid taking on Basque power, Athletic Club.

Ernesto Valverde’s Bilbao based side are enjoying their best season for a long time – starting the weekend in fourth, and into the final of the Copa del Rey, which is being played in Seville next weekend. Athletic Club have been imperious at their San Mamés fortress, only losing once – to Madrid – and that took place way back on the opening weekend of the campaign. And while they’ve lost more away from home, they’ve still amassed 20 of their 56 points on the road. They also boast the second best defence in the division.

Madrid, as you may expect, are the one side who’ve conceded less than them, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side only letting in 0.7 goals per game compared to Athletic Club’s 0.9. Their lead at the top of the table currently stands at eight points but that could be narrowed further should Barcelona win their home tie against Las Palmas on Saturday evening. Los Blancos are unbeaten in 12 games since January’s Copa defeat to city rivals Atlético and although they’ll know they’re in for a battle on Sunday, it is a fixture they usually come through – with Athletic Club’s last win at the Bernabéu coming just over nine years ago, and that one being just their second ever against Madrid in the capital.

🇮🇹 Serie A: Inter vs. Empoli

In Serie A, Easter Sunday remains sacred so the league fixtures are split between Saturday and Monday. AC Milan, Napoli, and Juventus all play their respective games tomorrow, but you’ll have to wait until Monday to see champions-elect Inter, when they host Empoli at San Siro.

Simone Inzaghi’s side boast a 14-point lead over the other side from Milan and have some of the most astonishing stats in Europe. They’ve still only conceded 14 goals, or 0.5 goals per game, all while banging in an average of 2.4 goals per game at the other end. Individually speaking, Lautaro Martínez leads the goal scoring charts with 23 from 26 games, and regista Hakan Çalhanoğlu is our best rating player in the league, with an average FotMob rating of 7.86.

Empoli are embroiled in a relegation battle. They went six games unbeaten between late January through to the end of February but have since lost three on the bounce and they remain 17th, just one point above the bottom three.

Plus two further suggestions from a little deeper in your match feed…

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Women’s League Cup Final: Arsenal vs. Chelsea

In case you weren’t aware, much like the Premier League, there’s also an almighty battle going on at the top of the Women’s Super League in England. Four-time reigning champions Chelsea are level on points with a resurgent Manchester City, and Arsenal are currently sat just six points behind them in third.

And while City face fourth placed Liverpool on Saturday, Arsenal and Chelsea are set to test each other in the relative free hit that is the final of the Conti Cup, the League Cup. With no points on the table but silverware and pride to fight for, and momentum to maintain, there’s plenty at stake.

Chelsea have had a successful week having safely negotiated their Champions League quarter-final tie against Ajax to set up a clash against reigning champions Barcelona in the final four. The Blues are now unbeaten in seven, a run that includes a 3-1 victory over Arsenal. The Gunners have played just once since then, beating Aston Villa 3-1 away from home last weekend.

🇭🇷 HNL: Hajduk Split vs. Dinamo Zagreb

We couldn’t leave this exciting weekend of football without mentioning that there are a number of key derbies taking place all over Europe. Croatia’s Eternal Derby in particular could have a significant bearing on the course of the season.

Dinamo Zagreb have been the dominant force in the country for some time now, winning 15 of the last 16 top flight titles. But this year, they currently sit third, five points down on Rijeka, the only other side to have won the league during the period mentioned.

And sat in between the two, one point better off than Dinamo, are Hajduk Split. The side from the southern city regularly finish as runners-up, in fact, they’ve done that in each of the last two seasons, but this year they’re hoping to go one better, and end a decade of hurt. To do that, they need to start this stage of the season with a victory over their bitterest rivals on Saturday.

And if they don’t, there’s always the chance of revenge in next Wednesday’s Cup semi-final between the two Croatian giants!

If you want to follow any of the games mentioned above, click on the relevant link and tap the bell icon to receive all the key match updates.

Or join our new WhatsApp Channel for updates on all the important football going on this weekend!

Images from IMAGO

Mar

2024

5 reasons to be positive about Liverpool’s chances of winning the title

Liverpool may never have been considered favourites to lift the Premier League title this season, but there is a convincing argument now that they can lift the trophy ahead of Arsenal and Manchester City.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

With the fourth and final international break of the season in the can, the Premier League’s three title contenders head into the home straight with 10 games left to play and only a point separating them.

Leaders Arsenal and second-placed Liverpool have both picked up 64 from their 28 games so far – with the London side’s goal difference keeping them top – while Manchester City are third with 63.

It is anticipated to be a tight race over the next two months, with Liverpool finding themselves in a position few would have banked on them taking up before the season started.

Here are five reasons fans should be positive about Liverpool’s chances of going all the way and lifting the title come May.

1. The fixture list

Most importantly, the fixture list looks to favour Jürgen Klopp’s side, with Arsenal and Manchester City’s remaining opponents recording statistically better form than Liverpool’s in terms of points per game this season.

The least comfortable games may come with trips to Manchester United and Everton, but there are also home clashes with bottomed-placed Sheffield United and struggling Crystal Palace.

If they are able to weather a run of three away games in seven days against Fulham (currently 12th), Everton (16th) and West Ham (seventh), Liverpool know they will be at home for two of their final three, with the visits of Tottenham and Wolves sandwiching a trip to Aston Villa.

Crucially, though, unlike Arsenal and Manchester City, the Reds are not required to face either of their direct title rivals.

2. Their rivals will drop points

Without even assessing their own fixtures, the reality is that at least one of Arsenal or Manchester City are guaranteed to drop points in their final 10 games.

That will come as early as Sunday, not long after full-time in Liverpool’s home clash with Brighton, as Manchester City host Arsenal at the Etihad.

If Liverpool do their part at Anfield, a draw or victory for hosts Manchester City would mean that Klopp’s side take an immediate advantage by cementing themselves clear at the top of the table.

It could be the marginal advantage they need as psychological warfare sets in between Klopp, Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta.

3. European advantage?

When Liverpool failed to finish in the top four of the Premier League in 2022/23 it was widely considered – including, of course, by those within the club – a failure of seismic proportions.

Having salvaged a nightmare campaign to at least secure fifth, however, the Reds entered the Europa League for the first time since Klopp’s first season at the club, and have taken the second-tier tournament in their stride.

After dismantling Sparta Prague 11-2 on aggregate to reach the quarter-finals, the Czech side’s manager, Brian Priske, summed it up perfectly: “Liverpool is a Champions League team and they should be playing in the Champions League.”

Their strength, and strength in depth, has allowed Klopp to rotate his squad throughout the Europa League while comfortably progressing – which could continue against Atalanta in the quarter-finals.

The same cannot be said of the Champions League, though, and Arsenal and Manchester City’s participation in the quarter-finals of that competition – where they face Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, respectively – could prove a hindrance when it comes to the league.

4. Key players are back – or almost back!

For once, the international break fell kindly for Liverpool, despite 17 players from Klopp’s first-team squad being called up for duty.

A two-week gap between the FA Cup quarter-final loss at Manchester United and the visit of Brighton on Sunday has allowed a number of players to rebuild their fitness and recover from injury.

Chiefly, that includes Mo Salah and Darwin Núñez, who were withdrawn from selection for Egypt and Uruguay, respectively, in order to nurse ongoing issues – and they were able to train throughout.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota and Alisson are all nearing a comeback, too, while initial scans on Andy Robertson’s ankle suggest the only new injury to stem from the March break is not as severe as first feared.

Adding those key players – who are, it should be stressed, four genuine first-choice starters – to an already-firing squad could be the boost Liverpool need to push through this final furlong on the domestic front.

5. The Klopp factor

And then there is the big intangible.

No one, even those closest to him in the squad, could have predicted the announcement of Klopp’s resignation back in January.

But while it has thrown Liverpool into uncertainty ahead of the summer, it only appears to have strengthened the resolve of his players, who are determined to sign off on this historic era with a bang.

Ask Ibrahima Konaté: “We want to win everything for him, and for us, and for the fans.”

Or Harvey Elliott: “We just want to win everything for him. We want to go into each and every game and treat it as a cup final.”

Or the captain, Virgil van Dijk: “Saying goodbye is not something I look forward to, but we can make it very nice by winning prizes together.”

It has been a steady theme throughout interviews with the Liverpool first team in the months since the shock news of Klopp’s plan to leave in the summer.

And, hiccup at Old Trafford in the cup aside, the evidence suggests it has given the Reds the edge they needed to fight through adversity – and injury – to give the manager a perfect send-off.

(Images from IMAGO)

To keep up to date with everything Liverpool, make sure you click follow on the team profile in the FotMob app. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

Premier League Preview: Easter Weekend

After a brief hiatus due to the international break, the Premier League is back. And it is back with a bang. There are a number of blockbuster match-ups to keep an eye on this weekend, so here is your preview ahead of a busy Easter schedule.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

Can the Magpies extend their streak?

St James’ Park plays host to the early kick-off on Saturday afternoon as Newcastle United welcome welcome West Ham United.

Eddie Howe’s men are unbeaten in their previous four against West Ham. However, three of these have been draws. A win would take the Magpies to within a point of the Hammers and they would have a game in hand. All three points for Newcastle could see a shift in momentum during the final run-in of the 2023/24 campaign.

Newcastle will be confident heading into this game due to the fact they have a fairly decent home record. They rank sixth having taken 29 points from 14 fixtures in front of home fans in the Premier League this term.

Something to note, though, is that West Ham do well on their travels. David Moyes’ men have claimed 20 points on the road, a haul only six teams in the Premier League can better. A win for the Hammers would take them level on points with Manchester United in sixth. It might not seem like it, but there’s a lot at stake.

What version of Spurs will we see?

Tottenham Hotspur have been a real Jekyll and Hyde team over recent weeks.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have been blowing hot and cold throughout the month of March having battered Aston Villa 4-0 at Villa Park to then lose 3-0 to Fulham at Craven Cottage before the international break.

A win here would take them level on points with Aston Villa, but they could well leapfrog Unai Emery’s team into fourth if they win by a scoreline of two or more goals. On paper, this fixture against Luton Town should be a formality for Spurs, especially if they want to claim a top-four finish this term.

Since returning from the Asian Cup, Heung-Min Son has five goal involvements in five outings for Spurs. His return of 14 Premier League goals can only be bettered by Mohamed Salah, Dominic Solanke, Ollie Watkins, and Erling Haaland. The Spurs skipper has the ability to really punish a porous Luton team.

Rob Edwards’ men are winless in nine. They are also without a clean sheet in nine. They have caused some big teams a number of issues this season but they’re yet to register a win against a top name. Maybe an inconsistent Spurs team presents them with an ideal opportunity to record a statement victory.

Wounded Wolves

Wolves travel to Villa Park on Saturday evening to take on Aston Villa. They are going to want to put in a confident showing in an effort to forget about what happened in their last outing. With an FA Cup semi-final up for grabs, Gary O’Neil’s side let a 2-1 lead over Coventry City slip to lose 3-2 in stoppage time.

That sort of loss, with it happening in such a disheartening manner, could really derail a campaign so it will be interesting to see how Wolves respond. Especially when you realise a win could move them into seventh.

And it could be an ideal time to face an inconsistent Villa side but, ultimately, it depends on what version of this team turns up. Unai Emery’s men lost 4-0 to Spurs a few weeks back but followed that up with a 4-0 win over Ajax. However, they then played out a disappointing 1-1 draw with West Ham. Emery and his team could find themselves in fifth place ahead of kick-off if Spurs beat Luton in the afternoon.

The pressure would be on the Villans who, at one stage, looked like title contenders, before a considerable drop-off has left them in a scrap for fourth place. They’re also without their suspended skipper, John McGinn and this further complicates things for the hosts.

A last chance for Jürgen Klopp

Jürgen Klopp has done a lot throughout his career. However, he’s never beaten Roberto De Zerbi. He welcomes the Italian tactician to Anfield on Sunday with Liverpool looking to reclaim top spot in the Premier League.

Brighton have been something of a bogey team for the Reds over recent seasons. In fact, it has been over two years since Liverpool beat the Seagulls.

During this time, the teams have faced off on four occasions with Brighton claiming two wins as well as two draws. They have scored 10 goals across these four outings and have conceded just six times.

Liverpool do have the best home record in the Premier League this term but the injury crisis might be catching up to them. The Reds lost 4-3 to Manchester United in the FA Cup prior to the international break and a number of returning players look rusty. They’ll need to be at their best to bring this horrid run of results to an end against the Seagulls.

De Zerbi’s team haven’t been great away from home this season. Brighton are without a goal in three away matches and have taken just 15 points from 14 away matches.

This is Klopp’s final opportunity to beat De Zerbi. He won’t necessarily care about that but he will want a reaction from his players, especially with top spot up for grabs.

The champions host the leaders

Manchester City will always be favourites heading into a football match but Arsenal are going to be full of confidence when they travel to the Etihad on Sunday afternoon.

The Gunners have the best away record in the Premier League having taken 29 points from 14 games. They have scored the most goals in the English top-flight, kept the most clean sheets, and conceded the fewest numbers of goals. They are the form team and sit top of the Premier League, albeit only on goal difference.

A win here would be a huge statement and could catapult them to go on to claim the title.

City haven’t been at their best at the Etihad this season but they do rank third when looking at home fixtures having taken 34 points from 14 games.

The Gunners beat City in the Community Shield earlier in the season and claimed a 1-0 win over the champions at the Emirates. Pep Guardiola’s men need to land a blow here to wrestle back some control in this title race.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

European Hot Shots: Sporting frontman Viktor Gyokeres

It sounds strange to say now given he’s recognised as a goal machine but there was a time when Viktor Gyökeres was not known for his goalscoring ability.

By Sam McGuire

Gyökeres had caught the eye as a teenager turning out for the Brommapojkarna in the Swedish second tier prior to his move to Brighton but that was about it. While playing in his homeland, Gyökeres scored 13 goals in 29 appearances and it was this form that put him on the radar of the Seagulls.

They swooped in, bringing the 6ft2 striker to England in January 2018. He eventually went on to make eight appearances across all competitions during the three-and-a-half seasons he was with the club. While at the Amex, he was loaned out to St. Pauli in the German second tier before back-to-back loan spells in the Championship with Swansea City and Coventry City.

Gyökeres scored a combined 11 goals across these three loans but he did enough while with Coventry to convince them to sign him on a permanent basis. At the time, few people acknowledged the move. After all, Brighton, famed for their nous in the transfer window, rarely make mistakes.

Yet this is one of them.

In his first full season, the 2021/22 campaign, with the Sky Blues, he found the back of the net 17 times in the Championship. He followed that up with 21 goals last term to earn himself a €20million move to Sporting CP.

After his exploits in the Championship, a number of Premier League clubs were reportedly interested in the Sweden international but none of them were confident enough to pull the trigger. It allowed Sporting to swoop in and make him their new No. 9.

You wouldn’t think there was pressure on the shoulders of Gyökeres heading into this season. A big price tag, a new league to adapt to, and the expectation of spearheading Sporting to a title challenge.

He’s thrived since the move to the Portuguese capital.

The 25-year-old has an astonishing 22 goals and 10 assists in just 25 appearances in Liga Portugal. He’s helped fire Rúben Amorim’s men to the top of the league, currently holding a one-point lead over neighbours Benfica with a game in hand.

His value has almost trebled, with a current market valuation of €57million, while reports suggest Sporting will only listen to offers in excess of €70million for the 20-cap international. The former-Brighton striker is reportedly being courted by both Arsenal and Chelsea with the two Premier League clubs looking to bolster their attacking options.

You can’t blame the Portuguese club for wanting big money for their main man.

Gyökeres has proven himself to be an elite finisher and these are hard to come by. A lot of strikers are chance magnets but few have the calmness or the composure in the penalty area to convert at the ridiculous rate he is.

The ex-Coventry man is averaging a decent number of shots per 90 in the Portuguese top flight (3.4) but by no means is his output unsustainable. So, that is the first box ticked. But when you delve a little deeper and look at his underlying numbers, the picture becomes a little clearer.

His 22 goals from an Expected Goals total of 15.45 is a little misleading. At a glance, that sort of overperformance is a red flag. At some point, the bubble will burst. Players rarely run that hot for sustained periods. Generally speaking, if you buy now, you are paying for the overperformance and it makes it impossible for the player to live up to the price tag.

However, this might not be the case with Gyökeres. You see, while his Expected Goals haul is 6.5 shy of his actual return this season, his Expected Goals on Target total is just 1.11 down on his 22 goals. This particular metric assigns a value to where the shots land on target. If a player takes a low-value effort but manages to hit the corner, the value of the shot increases. The Sporting No. 9 is improving the chances of him scoring with his shot placement and this is what makes his return sustainable.

You can see with his shot map (above), he’s hitting the corners a lot of the time. He also has a knack for hitting shots early, which catches goalkeepers off guard and this, again, increases the likelihood of a goal being scored.

Yes, he’s running hot, but he’s running hot in a way that appears to be sustainable. He isn’t going to drastically lose his finishing ability. He may go through a barren spell now and then, like all top attackers do, but looking at his data this season he’ll be a permanent goal threat. He’s going to be one of the most sought-after strikers across Europe this summer.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Sporting game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

Martin Zubimendi, the Xabi Alonso-inspired Number Six

Xabi Alonso is Martín Zubimendi’s role model. That isn’t terribly surprising given the overlap between the two figures. Alonso and Zubimendi play – or played, in Alonso’s case – similar positions. They both came through Zubieta – Real Sociedad’s famous youth academy. They played for the same youth team. They even share the same agent.

By Graham Ruthven

Wherever Alonso goes this summer, it’s possible Zubimendi will follow him. Bayern Munich and Liverpool have been strongly linked with the Bayer Leverkusen boss who is on the brink of winning this season’s Bundesliga title and both sides could use a new number six in Zubimendi’s mould.

Alonso was Zubimendi’s coach at Real Sociedad B, although that doesn’t describe the full extent of the role he played in the young midfielder’s development. There is a bond between the two who still regularly correspond despite Alonso now being in Germany. Zubimendi is, in many ways, the new Alonso.

“Martín’s a player all coaches would want,” Alonso said about his protege. “He’s generous, he always thinks more about his teammates than himself. He has that ability to generate play, to make those around him better, always offering solutions; to improve the move. He understands what the next step is before the ball gets to him. He has that ability to organise, the axis. I loved working with him.”

Liverpool could certainly use someone like Zubimendi. While the Anfield club did a lot to rebuild its midfield last summer, there is still space for an elite level number six at the base of the unit. This is where the singing of Zubimendi would complete Liverpool’s midfield rebuild as they enter the post-Jürgen Klopp era.

It could be argued Bayern Munich need someone like Zubimendi to an even greater extent. Thomas Tuchel has more than once pointed out the Bavarians’ desperate need for a new midfield anchor after missing out on the signing of João Palhinha from Fulham last summer. Zubimendi would be perfect for the role.

First and foremost, Zubimendi is a pace-setter. He dictates the tempo of matches from deep, keeping possession ticking over, switching play and releasing attacking teammates into high-value areas through his sharp use of the ball. Technically, there aren’t many better in the number six position.

Defensively, Zubimendi offers plenty too. No Real Sociedad player has averaged more interceptions per 90 minutes in La Liga this season than the 25-year-old. Zubimendi, however, isn’t a midfield destroyer in the traditional sense. Instead, he usually uses his positional sense and intelligence to pick up loose balls and stop opposition attacks.

This summer could be a big one for Zubimendi. Not only could he be on the move in the transfer window, the 25-year-old is expected to be an important member of Luis de la Fuente’s Spain squad for Euro 2024. Rodri might be ahead of Zubimendi in the pecking order, but there could be room for both in the Spanish midfield unit.

A strong showing in Germany this summer could push Zubimendi’s stock even higher, if he hasn’t already been captured by another club by the time Euro 2024 kicks off. Arsenal have been linked with the Spanish international while Manchester United could also be in the market for a new number six.

Xavi Hernández wanted Zubimendi to replace Sergio Busquets last summer. He made the signing of the Real Sociedad midfielder a priority only for Barcelona’s board to deliver him Oriol Romeu instead. Romeu, crucially, cost just €4m whereas Zubimendi has a release clause of €60m in his contract with La Real.

Barca’s interest in Zubimendi is long-standing and at another time it’s possible he would have ended up in Catalonia as the natural heir to Busquets. Right now, though, with Barcelona strapped for cash and redeveloping Camp Nou, Zubimendi is expected to move elsewhere. He won’t be short of options.

Having spent the entirety of his senior career at Real Sociedad, Zubimendi is ready for the next step in his career. That step could take him to Bayern Munich, Liverpool or somewhere else, but if given the opportunity he would surely choose to follow Alonso, wherever he goes. That has, after all, worked well for him so far.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Real Sociedad game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

Assessing Italy’s options up front: How will the Azzurri line up to defend their Euros title?

Italy’s Euro 2020 win came despite their obvious problems up front and years have gone by since that glorious day at Wembley in 2021, but the issue around selection still persists. Luciano Spalletti has been tasked with solving a problem which can define Italy’s European Championship campaign in 2024.

By Kaustubh Pandey

Ciro Immobile was an important part of the Azzurri side during the Euros triumph under Roberto Mancini but that didn’t stop criticism coming his way. That criticism lingered on for quite a while and while reports did just suggest that the Lazio man would announce his international retirement, he has simply become an afterthought for Italy in 2024.

Gianluca Scamacca was seen as someone who would become the next starting striker for Italy but things haven’t quite taken off for the former West Ham man. The striker crisis saw Italy fail to qualify for the 2022 World Cup, leaving then-manager Mancini to seek external imports and the Italian football federation (FIGC) obeyed.

Mateo Retegui, who was then loaned out to Tigres by Boca Juniors, became an unlikely choice for Mancini. The decision to call up the northern Buenos Aires-born striker raised eyebrows as it was something fresh. Retegui was eligible to represent the Azzurri because of the Italian heritage of his grandparents and he came from a sporting family too, with his father having represented Argentina in hockey. So far, the choice has proved to be a wise one and the current Genoa star has four goals in six games for the Azzurri.

Despite that, the dilemma lingers on for Spalletti. There are question marks about whether Retegui is ready or not, whether Scamacca can make the step up or if Immobile is still the man. At the same time, there are names such as Giacomo Raspadori and Lorenzo Lucca, who were called up for the recent friendlies in the United States.

An Immobile ‘rimonta’?

Immobile’s last game for Italy came back in August 2023 and he hasn’t been part of the squad since. The ongoing season has been a turbulent one for Lazio and the Juventus youth graduate has suffered due to tactical reasons and fitness issues, scoring only six times so far in the league. Even though he has been sometimes globally criticised for his performances for Italy, he has contributed to 25 goals in 57 games for the side.

The poor season has been characterised by him becoming slower than he was, and he has underperformed on his xG too, perhaps suggesting that he can’t get into the goal scoring areas that he used to earlier in his career.

He is taking over two shots on target per 90 minutes, but four of his six goals have been penalties, which makes things all the more disappointing for Immobile. It could point towards the fact that he isn’t the finisher he was. That could be down to injuries, or simply, the passing of time.

Italy want someone fresh and someone who is raring to make an impact, especially with the title to be retained and pride at stake. With younger options available, it might be time to cut ties with Immobile.

Making a case for Retegui

When Retegui scored on his debut against England, comparisons were instantly made with Jamie Vardy. Because of their rather diminutive and rather lean physique and their tendency to be runners in-behind, the comparison was rather obvious. While Retegui may not be as prolific as the Leicester City legend, their profiles do have similarities. The 24-year-old is also a fox in the box.

His shot map for Genoa, this season, certainly shows that and apart from his ability to run in-behind and find the right areas in the final third, Retegui is also effective at winning his duels despite a slightly smaller frame than the likes of Immobile and Scamacca.

One area where the Genoa man lacks is his on-the-ball ability, as he is barely a prolific dribbler or a passer, with his chances created metric at a disappointing 0.53 per 90 minutes. This does mean that he relies on service which he doesn’t always get at Genoa despite the Rossoblu being something of a surprise package under Alberto Gilardino.

Having said that, he thrives for the Azzurri because he receives much more service and he operates in a superior side. Spalletti’s recent experiment with a 3-4-2-1 could help Retegui rely more on threaded passes and passes to feet from the number tens behind him. A setup like that could definitely suit him. Even at Tigres, he operated in a fairly attacking setup and scored 35 times in 70 games in what was a very good goalscoring run.

And based on form and how he thrives upfront with better quality around him, Retegui should be in Italy’s squad.

Scamacca to prove his worth?

Scamacca is now 25 and has been around the Azzurri setup since 2021, when he was thriving at Sassuolo. The West Ham move, due to tactical and fitness reasons, didn’t go to plan and while he has had some good moments at Atalanta, there has been a lack of consistency. La Dea boss Gian Piero Gasperini has also spoke about a lack of effort from him and he stated in a recent interview with L’Eco di Bergamo:

“He has to run because he isn’t running much. If he is so undynamic he won’t be able to do anything good. Even if he has these important qualities…”

Scamacca is essentially a technical forward who may not always run as much as Gasperini likes, but he is neat with his feet despite a tall frame and can always be willing to break his nose when trying to score. He often showcases supreme link-up with those around him and that perhaps took root because of his street football background. Sometimes though, it does seem as if he tries too hard and that makes him seem inconsistent.

Despite inconsistency, injuries and criticism from Gasperini, the ex-Hammer has 0.55 goals per 90 minutes (85 percentile) and he is scoring more than his xG. Atalanta are a fairly attacking unit who rely on constant wide overloads and strikers do get loads of quality service. But Scamacca is still scoring more than he is expected to when he’s fit and healthy.

More than that, he is also showing his trademark technical ability that sets him apart from not just many strikers in Europe, but from any other Italian striker too.

If he was fit, Scamacca would’ve surely scored more and he will too in what remains of the season. He is unique and almost Zlatan Ibrahimović-like, offering something fresh to the Azzurri setup.

While Retegui is more of a runner in-behind, Scamacca offers superior link-up and is perhaps better suited when Italy have more possession, and there will be games when Spalletti’s side will have to do that. A Spalletti side likes to dominate possession and even if Scamacca doesn’t start every game, he is a very solid option to have in the squad.

The Lorenzo Lucca and Giacomo Raspadori debates

Lucca, on loan at Udinese, is having a solid season in a poor side, scoring seven times. Rated highly by many since he was a teenager, things are looking up for the 23-year-old after a barren loan spell at Ajax, and parent club Pisa have a real talent on their hands.

An aerial dominator, Lucca could offer a threat off the bench during desperate times. He remains untested in possession heavy sides and at 23, he will get a lot of chances with the Azzurri later in his career, but his slightly limited profile holds him back at present. It won’t be a surprise if he is excluded from the final squad for the Euros but he could be an option that Spalletti uses to grab an aerial advantage when in need of goals.

As for Raspadori, the Napoli man is in a bit of a conundrum. He has played as Italy’s striker and has scored thrice while playing upfront, but his club career has shown that he is best operating just behind the striker, or around the striker. He has the ability to open defences up from the final third and help those around him.

More than anything, he is much more versatile than Scamacca, Retegui, or Lucca. For both club and country, he has played behind the striker, on the left and upfront. In a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-2-1, a player like Raspadori could prove vital while also providing important depth, goals, and quality.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Italy game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

Is Aberdeen’s proud top flight record under threat?

Neil Warnock, in his own words, took the Aberdeen job to have “a little bit of fun.” Quickly, though, the smile was wiped from the 75-year-old’s face as the Dons sunk towards the foot of the Scottish Premiership table. Warnock lasted just 33 days – and eight matches – at Pittodrie, but Aberdeen still face a fight against relegation. Nobody at the club is having any fun.

By Graham Ruthven

With eight games of the season left, Aberdeen are just three points above the relegation playoff place. The picture was even bleaker before the away victory over Motherwell which ended a run of 11 matches without a win, but even that performance hinted at the problems afflicting the Dons this season.

Aberdeen have never been relegated in their 120-year history. They are widely considered Scottish football’s third force. Under Sir Alex Ferguson, the Pittodrie club won league titles and cups and famously beat Real Madrid in the 1983 European Cup Winners’ Cup in a triumph that is still rightfully glorified to this day.

The prospect of a club of Aberdeen’s size and stature playing in the Scottish Championship next season is almost unfathomable, but this is the direction they are heading in. The Dons have eight games to save their season and avoid the biggest humiliation in the club’s long and storied history.

On paper, Aberdeen boast one of the strongest squads in the Scottish Premiership. Only Lawrence Shankland and James Tavernier have scored more league goals this season than Bojan Miovski. Indeed, the North Macedonian international is a top-quality centre forward who will surely play at a higher level in the coming years.

Jamie McGrath is a Republic of Ireland international who earned himself a reputation as one of the best central midfielders in Scotland during successful spells at Dundee United and St Mirren. Even as Aberdeen have struggled badly this season, there have been glimpses of McGrath’s ability – McGrath is Aberdeen’s second-top scorer with nine goals.

Leighton Clarkson is another talented Aberdeen midfielder who was signed permanently from Liverpool last summer after catching the eye on loan at Pittodrie. Then there’s Graeme Shinnie, an experienced operator at the base of the Aberdeen midfield unit, and Connor Barron, a promising Scotland Under-21 international with a bright future ahead of him.

Centre back Slobodan Rubežić is a Montenegro international who was linked with Tottenham Hotspur not so long ago while Stefan Gartenmann and Angus MacDonald both have defensive pedigree too. From front to back, Aberdeen have talented individuals, but their results this season don’t reflect this.

US-based businessman Dave Cormack has invested heavily in Aberdeen since becoming chairman in 2019, but he has communicated a clear vision for the team on the pitch. Initially, Cormack wanted Aberdeen to play a brand of modern, possession-based football, hiring Stephen Glass despite the former Dons midfielder lacking any senior management experience.

When Glass faltered, Cormack hired Jim Goodwin, a conservative coach known for his stodgy, defence-minded style of play. Goodwin, however, lasted less than a year at Pittodrie and was replaced by another rookie, Barry Robson, who was handed the job permanently after a short interim spell.

Then came the experienced Warnock as interim boss who arrived in Scotland without any apparent knowledge of the game north of the border. He continually experimented with his lineup when Aberdeen needed an immediate bounce and points on the board. When Warnock resigned, he implied he was stepping aside to make way for a permanent appointment. More than a fortnight later, though, Aberdeen still haven’t hired anyone. Fans are understandably confused.

Managerial whiplash over the last three seasons has given Aberdeen an identity crisis. Defensively, they are vulnerable. As an attacking outfit, they are anaemic. Money has been spent in the transfer market, but there is no strategy underpinning this investment. As a team, Aberdeen don’t stand for anything.

There’s still time for Aberdeen to arrest their slide towards the second tier. Their next two fixtures are against 11th place Ross County and 12th place Livingston. Six points from those two games would significantly alleviate the threat of relegation. Even if Aberdeen stay in the Scottish Premiership, though, they have bigger issues to solve.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every SPFL game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Mar

2024

Poland join the Euro 2024 party but what chance do they have in Group D?

And so it took a terrible penalty at the end of nine excellent ones to supply the final qualifying nation for Euro 2024. Wojciech Szczęsny had got nowhere near four; Danny Ward watched five fly past him. Then Dan James’ weak effort was parried away, the Dragons were slain and Poland were booking tickets to Germany. Michał Probierz’s side will be in Group D with Netherlands, France and Austria and, on the evidence of their route to the tournament, have a lot of work on to ensure they are there for anything more than making up the numbers.

By Karl Matchett

While Poland’s fortunate eventual progression to Germany ‘24 came courtesy of their Nations League adventures, Probierz has at least improved results since taking over. Draws in qualifying with Moldova and Czech Republic can hardly be described as encouraging, but the defeats stopped – Poland and Moldova both beat them before Fernando Santos was finally fired – and the defence has been more resolute.

Employing a back three system, Probierz has seen his team concede three in six games, albeit not against elite nations: Wales are the best outfit they’ve faced, while clean sheets against Latvia and Faroe Islands come with the usual asterisks of expectancy.

It’s perhaps at the other end of the pitch where the new head coach has started to knit matters together a little more notably, giving one or two players the platform to impress.

The switch to 3-5-2 has seen Nicola Zalewski in particular come to the fore, operating as left wing-back. The Roma youngster didn’t have his most productive outing against Wales, in terms of end product, but was constantly an outlet and a ball-carrier for a team which can often look one-paced and lacking real dynamism. While he naturally has a fight on his hands for minutes at club level, he has a good success rate in dribbles for Roma this term – 52% with 13 successes – and his work rate is evident from winning 70% of his tackles and 55% of all duels in Serie A this term. On the international front, 250 minutes in Euros qualifying is not a huge body of work and he’s only won 16 caps all told so far, but averaging more than one shot on target every 90 minutes, 1.81 chances created, and 2.9 successful dribbles all highlight how quickly he has come integral to their build-up play.

On the opposite flank, Przemysław Frankowski was maybe the pick of the bunch against Wales, with seven defensive actions and seven recoveries stacking up as well in one half of the pitch as his six passes into the final third and constant dangerous deliveries from wide did in the other.

Yet there’s work to be done to ensure the wide threat can provide ammunition for those who can take the chances. Robert Lewandowski’s powers are very much on the wane and he was rarely involved against the Welsh, having failed to score from eight shots against Finland in the semi. He’ll still lead the line over summer and is captain of the team, but Probierz must decide on the best way to get the most out of the 35-year-old. Karol Świderski is the current partner of choice for him but isn’t a regular goalscorer himself, with a one-in-three strike rate at international level coming largely courtesy of minnows: Andorra, San Marino and Moldova make up 40% of his international goals.

In the 120 minutes at the Cardiff City Stadium, Poland mustered precisely zero shots on target, tallied an xG of 0.45 and created only one really notable chance. All this against a goalkeeper who isn’t a regular at club level and a back three who, while resilient and well-organised, are individually of a considerably lower level than Virgil van Dijk or Dayot Upamecano, who they’ll be up against in summer.

It’s very difficult to look at this Poland squad and surmise they will have put the pieces together sufficiently by June to get out of Group D. Even a third-place finish will require them to beat Austria, almost certainly, and then snare a reasonable result elsewhere.

It can be argued that qualification for this summer’s Euros is, to an extent, a farce. Norway for example finished third in their group on 11 points – exactly the same as Poland in theirs. The Scandinavians were not handed a play-off path for a second chance; Georgia – who finished behind them in the same group – were, and have sealed their berth at the tournament. Now Poland have become another lucky loser by beating Wales, a nation who won more points than Poland did in qualifying, yet will be left watching on.

Probierz could hardly have walked into a more fortunate situation; now it’s up to him to make the most of that chance and style this team with some promise, but little impact, into a contender to knock out a heavyweight.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow Euro 2024 with xG, deep stats, and players ratings, on FotMob this summer. Download the free app here.