Page 121 – The Pulse of Football

Apr

2024

Premier League Preview: Round 33

This could be a pivotal weekend in the Premier League. With a number of teams in European action over the last few days, fatigue could well kick in. We might also see managers having to rotate and when things are as tight as they are at the top, one wrong change could see points dropped when it matters most. Here’s a look at what we feel could be the decisive matches across matchday 33 in the English top flight.

By Sam McGuire, Premier League expert

An opportunity for Spurs

Spurs travel to St James’ Park for the early kick-off on Saturday afternoon knowing a win gives them complete control in their push for a top-four finish. Ange Postecoglou’s side are level on points with Aston Villa but do have a game in hand. A win over Newcastle would open up a three-point gap advantage ahead of Villa’s Sunday afternoon match against title-chasing Arsenal.

If results do go their way this weekend, Spurs will be three points clear with a game in hand over their rivals. This could be massive in the race for Champions League football.

This could be an intriguing match-up. Both Newcastle and Spurs head into this game unbeaten in three but performances have been a little erratic. The Magpies, for example, rallied in the second half to beat West Ham 4-3 before drawing against Everton having been utterly dominant. They needed a late goal against Fulham to claim the win. Spurs, meanwhile, scored late on against Luton to pick up a win before only managing to pick up a point against West Ham. They went in at half-time against Nottingham Forest level before two quickfire second-half goals helped them pick up three points.

Newcastle have been going a little under the radar as of late. If they manage to beat Spurs, they move into sixth position. This could complete a remarkable turnaround for Eddie Howe’s side.

Can City make a statement?

Manchester City face relegation-threatened Luton Town at the Etihad on Saturday afternoon knowing a win lifts them into top spot, at least for the time being. The reigning champions played out an entertaining 3-3 draw with Real Madrid in the Champions League in mid-week and while this may have taken a lot out of them physically, their performance will no doubt have filled the players with confidence ahead of this game.

On paper, it should be a formality for Pep Guardiola’s side. In fact, this should be viewed as an opportunity to claw back some of the goal difference on Arsenal. At the end of the season, it could all come down to that. Can City score four goals in the Premier League for a third successive match? You wouldn’t be surprised if they managed it, would you?

Luton halted their 10-match winless run last weekend with a surprise victory over Bournemouth. This, coupled with points deductions for Everton and Nottingham Forest, may have buoyed Rob Edwards’ men. Despite their poor run of form, a win could see them escape the relegation zone this weekend. If they manage to claim three points at the Etihad, it would be the result of the season. And it is around this time of the campaign that these sorts of results occur.

Which Manchester United side will turn up?

Manchester United really are Dr Jeykll and Mr Hyde this season. Sometimes they are incredible, other times it appears as though they have never played football together as a team. The Red Devils were dismantled by Liverpool in the first-half last weekend before a second-half comeback showcased what they are capable of.

They put in a similar performance against the Reds in the FA Cup in March, knocking Jürgen Klopp’s side out, before following it up with a 1-1 draw with Brentford and a 4-3 loss to Chelsea.

What Manchester United side are we going to see on Saturday in their game against Bournemouth? Erik Ten Hag’s men still have a lot to play for with European football up for grabs if they finish the season well. They are against an in-form Cherries side though.

Andoni Iraola’s men were on a five-match unbeaten run prior to their shock defeat to Luton last weekend. They’ll want to get that result out of their system and show it was the exception as opposed to a sign of things to come. They have an ideal opportunity to do just that against an inconsistent Manchester United side.

Are the wheels coming off for Liverpool?

Not long ago, Liverpool were in the hunt for a quadruple. Now, though, the Reds are out of the FA Cup, they’re 3-0 down in the Europa League having been battered by Atalanta at Anfield, and they lost top spot in the Premier League last weekend following a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.

It has been a week to forget for Jürgen Klopp and his players.

The loss to the Serie A side on Thursday night was their first defeat at home in 14 months and while they haven’t necessarily been convincing at Anfield recently, they have managed to eke out results. The first loss in over a year could be a psychological blow and now they welcome Crystal Palace to Merseyside on Sunday afternoon.

The cavalry in the form of Diogo Jota and Trent Alexander-Arnold have arrived but is it too late? It would be naive to write the Reds off as they have shown time and time again under Klopp that they are capable of the impossible, but the timing of this, coupled with the performances over recent weeks, point towards this group of players running out of steam at the worst possible time.

They have the chance to silence critics with an imposing performance on Sunday to return to the summit though. The pressure is on them to deliver a big win.

A top of the table clash

Regardless of what happens elsewhere, Arsenal know a win at the Emirates on Sunday will see them return to the summit. They face an Aston Villa team trying to juggle commitments in the Europa Conference League with a pursuit of a top four finish.

Former Arsenal boss Unai Emery might have to rotate given he went with a strong XI on Thursday night but he will know that if things don’t go their way this weekend, they will finish matchday 33 three points off the pace in the race for top four having played a game more. It isn’t a position they want to find themselves in, so it will be interesting to see his approach to this game.

The Gunners weren’t at their convincing best against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and Mikel Arteta is going to have to manage the minutes of a number of key players ahead of the second leg. He can’t afford to name a weakened XI in the game this weekend though as, if results go against them, they’ll be third when this matchday comes to a close. The Arsenal boss will have to earn his money this week.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from the Premier League live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Christian Benteke: Front and centre of DC United’s rebuild

There was no stopping Christian Benteke as he hung in the air to seal his hat trick against the New England Revolution. Opposition goalkeeper Henrich Ravas looked favourite to reach the cross into the box, but DC United’s number 20 had other ideas, leaping to a height Cristiano Ronaldo would have been proud of to win the header and find the net.

By Graham Ruthven

Benteke’s hat trick against the Revs in DC United’s opening game of the season hinted at the potential of the Belgian as the frontman for a new-look team under new management. Two further goals against St. Louis City and the Columbus Crew have further underlined the importance of Benteke to the reconstruction project at Audi Field.

2023 was a difficult year for DC United. Wayne Rooney left the club at the end of a regular season which saw the Black-and-Red miss out on the play-offs. DC United will always hold a prominent position in Major League Soccer after establishing itself as the league’s first dominant force in the late 1990s, but the present outlook was bleak as the club entered the off-season.

Since then, though, DC United have enacted some changes. Ally Mackay was hired from Nashville as the club’s new general manager and chief soccer officer, making him, at 37, the youngest person in the entire league to hold that position. “The essence for me in soccer is to entertain, and I think that that is something that I want to impose on the club,” said Mackay not long after his appointment.

Troy Lesesne was identified as the man to remould DC United on the pitch as the club’s new head coach. Lesesne served as the New York Red Bulls’ interim boss in the second half of 2023 and led the Harrison outfit to the play-offs playing a brand of high-energy, high-intensity soccer that clearly drew Mackay’s eye.

While DC United are certainly a work-in-progress under Lesesne, having won just two of the seven fixtures they have played so far this season, there have been clear signs of transition. DC United rank fifth in MLS for non-penalty Expected Goals (xG). Their xG differential per 90 minutes also stands as the best in the division. Had DC United not spurned so many opportunities, they would be higher in the Eastern Conference.

Benteke can’t be blamed for his lack of effectiveness in front of goal. Only Cristian Arango and Lewis Morgan have scored more goals in MLS this season than the former Aston Villa and Liverpool striker who has found the back of the net five times in just five appearances. That puts him level with Luis Suárez and one goal ahead of Lionel Messi.

DC United are moving the ball more quickly, precisely and vertically this season. This has helped to get Benteke into better goalscoring positions (he’s leading the league in non-penalty xG so far this season) with the 33-year-old the attacking focal point Lesesne needs to make his approach work.

In a league that Messi now calls home, Benteke is often overlooked as a difference-maker. Even when ranking the best centre forwards in MLS right now, the likes of Giorgos Giakoumakis, Cucho Hernández and Suárez might be mentioned ahead of the Belgian. But Benteke’s record of 20 goals in 46 games – including 14 last season – for DC United speaks for itself.

“We’re in the process of building something and we’re rebuilding things in a lot of ways, both on the field and what you see on match day but many, many things off the field,” said Lesesne after Saturday’s credible draw away to defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew which would have been a win had it not been for a late strike by Aidan Morris.

As a club that has been defined by its past for too long, DC United are now finally looking to the future. The squad at Audi Field requires strengthening to truly compete with sone of the best teams in MLS for major honours, but Lesesne and Mackay have pointed the Black-and-Red in the right direction. Benteke is also playing a big role in that.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every DC United game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Why Luis Diaz may be a willing casualty of Liverpool’s big summer of change

It is almost inevitable that, with Jürgen Klopp leaving the club, so too will some of his Liverpool squad, with Luis Díaz seeming one of the most likely to jump ship.

By Jack Lusby, ThisIsAnfield.com

The news of Jürgen Klopp’s decision to leave Liverpool has left uncertainty over the club, with a major upheaval now in the works at Anfield.

In many ways, not least in keeping the squad together, it posed a concern.

After all, many of these players decided to join Liverpool to play for Klopp as much as they did the Liverbird on the shirt and the supporters in the stands.

But it has also presented the club with an opportunity, one which owners Fenway Sports Group have already grasped as they plot to expand their portfolio with the purchase of another club and the strengthening of Liverpool’s own hierarchy.

Not only is Klopp leaving, but so too are many of his staff; it represents a hard reset for Liverpool.

That could extend itself to the playing staff as we move towards the first post-Klopp transfer window.

One such player is Luis Díaz, who is subject of concrete interest from Paris Saint-Germain along with further links to the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid.

The Telegraph’s Sam Wallace is the latest to report on PSG’s hopeful pursuit of Díaz, whose agent recently made a trip to Merseyside to “visit his client,” while the player’s father, Luis Díaz Sr., has on more than one occasion pushed the prospect of a move to LaLiga – in November, he claimed “it would be his dream” to join Barcelona, describing his son as a “loyal fan.”

Sources in Colombia have reiterated that PSG’s interest in Díaz is “real,” with the Ligue 1 club preparing for life without Kylian Mbappé.

That is where the sense of opportunity comes in.

There is a feeling that, based on these reports, the player himself could be looking to engineer a move away from Merseyside, which may have been prompted by any number of factors – and not solely Klopp’s resignation.

Clearly, as Liverpool have faced in the past with the likes of Luis Suárez and Philippe Coutinho, Díaz’s end game may not be the Premier League, but LaLiga; it is often cited as a dream for South American players to turn out at the highest level of Spanish football, and Díaz himself has described Ronaldinho, Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr as players he “really looked up to.”

On a more personal level, too, it has been a season of seismic change for Díaz off the pitch, instigated by the trauma of his parents’ kidnapping in his hometown of Barrancas back in November.

While both were eventually liberated, the family have since relocated to the UK, with Díaz Sr. earning cult status among Liverpool fans as he follows the Reds home and away, often decked out in his short-sleeved ‘Díaz 7’ shirt and gloves, mirroring his son on the pitch.

It would be projecting to suggest that Díaz’s family were pushing for a move abroad, but months of grey days and relentless rain on Merseyside will surely have come as a shock to the system, and they would be forgiven for setting their sights on the sunnier climes of Spain or even France.

By the same token, Liverpool could see this summer as an opportunity to cash in on one of their most saleable assets ahead of the arrival of a new manager.

While all signs point to Sporting CP’s Rubén Amorim taking over at the end of the season, sources within the club insist that reports of a deal being agreed are premature, and that various candidates are still being assessed.

Any new manager will join with their own opinions on the players within the Liverpool squad, and no doubt there will be a desire to bring in reinforcements in certain areas.

With a price tag of £75 million mooted, and PSG famously wealthy, there could be an opportunity to raise significant funds for a player who will have three years remaining on his contract this summer and, while outstanding at times, has yet to reach to heights of his predecessor on the left, Sadio Mané.

Díaz turned 27 in January, and though he is currently enjoying his most prolific campaign for the club, the reality is that 13 goals and four assists in 42 games (all comps) – one every 176 minutes on average – is not the level of output expected of a first-choice starter in Liverpool’s attack.

Mohamed Salah is averaging a goal or assist every 71 minutes this season, Darwin Núñez one every 87 minutes, Diogo Jota one every 87 minutes and Cody Gakpo one every 133 minutes.

Add to that the two serious injuries suffered in the same part of Díaz’s knee during the 2022/23 season and there is cause to argue that Liverpool’s new-look recruitment staff could see the plus-side of cashing in on the Colombian.

The return of Michael Edwards as FSG’s CEO of Football and the appointment of his close friend Richard Hughes, formerly of Bournemouth, as sporting director sets in motion a shift away from the manager-led transfer strategy that Liverpool adopted in the latter years of Klopp’s reign.

Schmadtke, it should be noted, was a short-term appointment made largely to do the dirty work when it came to Klopp’s preferred targets.

Instead of the manager holding the power when it comes to signings and sales, the emphasis will be on those in the boardroom to identify the right players for the squad, working alongside Klopp’s successor, rather than facilitating his desires.

There is historic interest in West Ham’s Mohammed Kudus, 23, Wolves’ Pedro Neto, 24, and Athletic Club’s Nico Williams, 21, all of whom have significant potential and a number of years on Díaz.

It could even be argued that, if it were Amorim who took the reins as expected, there would no longer be a need for an orthodox winger, with the Portuguese’s 3-4-3 system at Sporting CP built around a centre-forward and two supporting inside forwards – a role which could suit the likes of Diogo Jota, Dominik Szoboszlai and Fabio Carvalho – with wing-backs providing the width.

So perhaps these hints that Díaz is open to a move away from Anfield come at the perfect time for Liverpool.

He could allow himself to become a willing casualty in a big summer of change, stepping aside while a new era begins.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Apr

2024

Ruben Loftus-Cheek is loving life in Serie A

There has been a drastic increase in the English-speaking representation in the Serie A in recent years and it has been a case of so far, so good. With American investment in Serie A clubs increasingly prevalent and after the likes of Fikayo Tomori, Weston McKennie and Christian Pulisic impressing in the division, it is now Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s turn to make a mark.

By Kaustubh Pandey

When the Englishman moved to Milan in the summer, the transfer didn’t receive too much attention. The focus, unfortunately enough, was on Sandro Tonali’s exit from the Rossoneri to Newcastle United largely because of how abruptly the move came about. Loftus-Cheek, despite once being an established England international, wasn’t seen as a major signing by too many amidst doubts about his fitness and consistency.

Chelsea were in chaos too, as there was the evident and constant influx of players and Loftus-Cheek wasn’t seen to be a part of the present or the future despite playing 25 times in the Premier League last season. The expectation at Stamford Bridge was that the Englishman would soon be replaced by an expensive summer signing. He indeed was replaced by an expensive summer signing but a case can be made of the fact that Loftus-Cheek has been more effective for Milan than any of said expensive signings have been for the Blues.

This doesn’t mean that Chelsea should regret letting Loftus-Cheek depart for £15m, as they have taken steps towards a future. But the 28-year-old has shown his worth, and value, for probably the first time in quite a while.

As of now, Loftus-Cheek has six Serie A goals and four goals in the Europa League, making this his best goal scoring season in senior football. A large part of that is because of how Stefano Pioli has used him at the Rossoneri.

A constant presence at number ten

Loftus-Cheek has usually been a versatile player in midfield throughout his career. Last season at Chelsea, he often played out wide and even played in defensive midfield multiple times. During his loan stint at Fulham, the Lewisham-born player often featured across the midfield and also as a centre-forward under Scott Parker. Even in the 2021/22 season, he was used in either defensive midfield or in a central midfield role.

At Milan though, he has been a constant presence in attacking midfield. In fact, that is what he was brought in for. Tonali did depart for St James’ Park, but Brahim Díaz also returned to Real Madrid after a rather underwhelming loan spell. This left the Rossoneri attempting to sign a number ten who could operate between the lines, and score goals while Yacine Adli was settling in, and Charles de Ketelaere hadn’t quite fired.

The chart for this season shows how the current setup simply suits Loftus-Cheek, who is taking less touches and doing less defensive work, while constantly operating in the final third. He is taking shots, scoring more and winning aerial duels owing to his dominant physical stature.

Milan’s dominance of possession through deeper midfielders like Tijjani Reijnders and Adli allows Loftus-Cheek to stay further forward. The Frenchman’s resurgence at the San Siro has been vital, as he has stepped up when injuries were running the squad ragged.

And perhaps, playing in a team that dominates possession and eliminates the need of him taking part in the first or second phase helps Loftus-Cheek massively.

Scoring at vital times

The 28-year-old’s performances aren’t just down to the fact that he is scoring more and operating in a preferred role, but it also comes down to how he is scoring at important points.

His brace against Bologna, for example, came at a timer when the Rossoblu were in the Champions League race and Milan were third in the table and were themselves in a dogfight to secure European football.

Apart from scoring a brace, Loftus-Cheek also created the most number of chances in the game.

In the Europa League, the midfielder came up with an important brace against Rennes in the first leg of the playoff round. The second leg became a rather tense affair for the Rossoneri, showing how vital the midfielder’s goals were.

On top of that, Loftus-Cheek scored two more all-important goals in Serie A, with the latest one coming against Fiorentina in a 2-1 win. Against Udinese some weeks earlier, Milan had found themselves 2-1 down away from home at the 63rd minute mark in what was a tempestuous affair in Udine. The ex-Crystal Palace man had scored Milan’s first, before Noah Okafor and Luka Jović secured the turnaround.

One of his first standout games came against Paris Saint-Germain when Milan were fighting for survival in the Champions League at the San Siro. Pioli’s side simply had to win and they did. Even though Loftus-Cheek didn’t score, he put in a sparkling performance when it was needed most.

He completed five dribbles in the game – more than Rafael Leão and Kylian Mbappé. Seeing him turn past multiple defenders in that game was a sight to behold, as he showed what he can truly be capable of even though he didn’t score.

Future in attacking midfield?

While the game against PSG showed that Loftus Cheek can go past defenders fairly easily to beat the press, there is a possibility that it may not bring the best out of him. Considering how many injuries he has suffered in the past, it might be best to optimise his usage in the final third, as it would provide more value to the team goals-wise and would also reduce the risk of injury as the player would cover less distance.

Stefano Pioli is an excellent pragmatist who has made a name for himself by identifying strengths of players and often using them on the basis of specific strengths. That is pretty much what he is doing for Loftus-Cheek, who is loving life in Milan.

Pioli has identified how Loftus-Cheek would offer best value to the Rossoneri and the setup seems to suit him, with the two behind him offering enough control. That is exactly why playing in the number ten role is where Loftus-Cheek’s future should lie. That would benefit club, country, and the player himself.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Milan game on FotMob – with deep stats, xG, and players ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Aubameyang could be the man to drive Marseille forward in Europe

It took Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang until October to score his first Ligue 1 goal for Marseille having joined the club in the summer. His second didn’t come until December. Shortly after, Gennaro Gattuso was sacked by Marseille and many assumed Aubameyang would similarly end up on the Stade Velodrome scrapheap. Instead, the 34-year-old has been rejuvenated.

By Graham Ruthven

Aubameyang has scored nine goals in the nine games he has played since Gattuso’s departure. Only Kylian Mbappé, Jonathan David and Alexandre Lacazette have scored more goals in Ligue 1 this season than the former Arsenal, Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund centre forward who is enjoying an unexpected resurgence.

Jean-Louis Gasset has helped to get the best out of Aubameyang. The appointment of the 70-year-old who was infamously sacked as Ivory Coast boss during the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations – which The Elephants sensationally went on to win – looked to be a desperate move by Marseille, but his arrival at Stade Velodrome has pointed the south coast club in the right direction again.

Sitting eighth in Ligue 1, it might be too late for Marseille to mount a top four challenge, but Europa League success remains a target with the French side drawn against Benfica in the competition’s quarter-finals. If Marseille are to get their hands on a European trophy for the first time in over three decades, Aubameyang will be a driving force.

At Chelsea last season, Aubameyang looked washed up. He was disinterested and was omitted by Graham Potter from the Blues’ Champions League squad. This came after a successful spell at Barcelona where the Gabonese forward netted 11 goals in 17 games in LaLiga, but Aubameyang netted just three times in 21 appearances in a Chelsea shirt.

Now, though, he is back in form, and not just as a finisher. Indeed, Aubameyang is being harnessed as a creative force – Ousmane Dembélé is the only player to have registered more assists in Ligue 1 this season. Marseille are playing into – and playing through – Aubameyang as the focal point of their attack.

“He’s the player,” said Gasset about Aubameyang after a particularly eye-catching display by the 34-year-old against Nantes last month. “In any team, you have the player. You play him where he loves to be and then you build the team around him. He scores goals and drops back to work if he must, and even shows a measure of generosity.”

The appreciation between Aubameyang and Gasset is mutual. “He has brought serenity to the team. That is key,” said Aubameyang about the impact the veteran French coach has made at Stade Velodrome. “He arrived in a tricky context. He is calm and experienced and that’s what we needed.

“As for our relationship, it goes beyond words. He read me and made me comfortable from the moment we met. [There was] no need to speak. He put me in my favourite position. I have the freedom of a striker while playing on the left wing, which I am used to. It makes a big difference.”

To win this season’s Europa League, Marseille will have to topple some big clubs. Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen are firm favourites to lift the trophy with both teams among the strongest in European football right now. AC Milan also have a team of attacking difference-makers while Roma are resurgent following the sacking of José Mourinho – and the arrival of Daniele De Rossi.

Nonetheless, momentum is a powerful thing in football and Marseille have already seen off Shakhtar Donetsk and Villarreal in the Europa League knockout rounds after emerging from a difficult group that included Ajax and Brighton. They have won four of the five continental matches at Stade Velodrome this season. Home advantage will be key against Benfica.

Talent has never been a problem for Aubameyang. There’s a reason he has played for clubs of the stature of Arsenal, Barcelona and Dortmund over the course of his career. Environment, however, is key for Aubameyang. Only in the right circumstances will the Gabonese striker thrive and he appears to have found those circumstances at Marseille. The club has embraced him. His career renaissance could still end in European glory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Marseille game live with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Stade Brestois: The Pirates on course for their best ever finish in Ligue 1

This season has thrown up a host of underdog stories throughout Europe. Yet perhaps none have been as impressive as Stade Brestois’ remarkable campaign in Ligue 1. The Breton side have exceeded all expectations and currently occupy second spot – their highest ever position at this stage of a top flight season in France.

By Luke Bissett

And what a difference a year has made at the Stade Francis Le Blé. Brest were engulfed in a fierce relegation battle upon manager Eric Roy’s arrival in January 2023, while several doubts were cast over his appointment. It was Roy’s first managerial job since a spell at Nice in 2011, with the Frenchman having worked as a sporting director at Watford and Lens.

Following just one league win in Roy’s first two months in charge, Brest seemed destined for the drop with a tally of 20 points from their opening 25 games. In fact, it was their worst start to a Ligue 1 season since the in over 30 years. A further cause for concern was the fact that four sides were relegated from Ligue 1 last term as the league system was rejigged and the division was reduced to 18 clubs. Yet the turning point in the Pirates’ season soon arrived. Brest lost just two of their final 11 matches, steering well clear of the relegation zone and finishing in 14th spot.

However, survival seemed an equally difficult task ahead of the current campaign – most notably due to the sale of key attacker Franck Honorat to Borussia Mönchengladbach. Honorat had been directly involved in more goals than any other Brest player since his arrival in 2020-21 (38 goal involvements). This was also furthered by the departures of key players Haris Belkebla and Jean-Kévin Duverne, while the club’s financial capabilities were extremely limited due to the Mediapro broadcast fiasco. The Pirates seemed to be a sinking ship.

Yet against all odds, Eric Roy’s side have taken Ligue 1 by storm this season. They currently sit in second spot with 53 points – already more than they managed across the entirety of each of their last eight Ligue 1 campaigns. Indeed, the highest position that Brest have ever previously held this far into a top-flight term was sixth.

This season has been nothing short of remarkable at the Stade Francis Le Blé, with this their most wins (15) and fewest losses (5) ever at this stage. Roy has developed his side into one of the most consistent performers across France, and they have lost just one of their last 17 league games.

Their imperious form has been largely built on boasting one of the sternest defences across the big five European leagues. Brest have conceded the second-fewest goals of any side in the French top tier (23) – half as many as they had shipped after 28 games in 2022-23 (46). Furthermore, only Nice (15) and Lille (14) have kept more clean sheets than Roy’s side (13).

The side from Brittany have certainly caught Ligue 1 by surprise with their direct approach. They typically set up in a variation of a 4-3-3 and place a huge emphasis on progressing the ball upfield as quickly as possible – they have the third highest percentage of long passes in Ligue 1 (15.5%). The Pirates average the fifth fewest passes per sequence (3.4), showcasing just how keen they are on advancing the ball as soon as possible.

Remarkably, Brest have completed more long passes than any other side in Europe’s big five leagues (1118). Roy’s side utilise this via the aerial prowess of loanee striker Martin Satriano, with the team’s midfielders and wide players then flooding the central areas to challenge for second balls.

Another extremely impressive trait of this Brest side is their wing-play. They look to use the full width of the pitch and work the ball into dangerous positions, before delivering inviting crosses into the penalty area. In fact, they have the third highest absolute width per sequence in Ligue 1 this season (26 metres), while no side has attempted (654) or completed (166) more crosses in the competition.

Though that is not to say their attacking sequences are completely one-dimensional. In Romain Del Castillo, Brest have one of the most effective technicians within their side. The attacker has made the second-most passes into the penalty area in Ligue 1 this term (276), alongside boasting the third highest xA (Expected Assists) tally in the division (7.55). The forward-thinking Del Castillo is always looking to progress play, and is a huge factor in the fact that Brest have made the fourth most passes into the opposition’s box (884). This enables the Pirates to generate a large volume of chances – they have attempted the third most shots in the division (404).

However, there is little doubt that Brest’s success has been due to their out-of-possession work. Roy’s charges are one of the most effective pressing units in France. They look to suffocate opponents into making mistakes, with only Monaco (278) making more high turnovers than them in 2023-24 (260). A staggering 43 of those high turnovers have ended in a shot – the third most in the division. The Pirates give opponents very little time on the ball, which is displayed through them also having the third lowest PPDA figure in Ligue 1 (9.9).

Furthermore, only Monaco (442) and PSG (430) have completed more press sequences – the number of sequences starting in the defensive third where the opposition has three or fewer passes, and the sequence ends in their own half – than Brest’s 426. Roy’s side seek to force opponents out wide, offering significantly fewer opportunities to advance the ball. While they press aggressively to protect central passing lanes, making more tackles (561) and winning more duels (1673) than any other Ligue 1 outfit.

This has worked to great effect for the Pirates and limited their opponents to very few chances – only Lille (266) have faced less shots than them (285). The Bretons’ defence has been impenetrable at times. This has seen Roy’s side become extremely difficult to peg back, with nine of their 15 victories coming via a one-goal margin. Impressively, no side has dropped fewer points from winning positions than them in Ligue 1 (four).

It has been a season like no other for Brest – who have never finished higher than eighth in the French top-flight – with Champions League qualification now firmly within their grasp. Due to the competition’s impending expansion, fourth spot in Ligue 1 will see the Pirates set sail for the high seas of the Europe’s biggest club competition for the very first time.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Apr

2024

European Hot Shots: Ollie Watkins is making himself the focal point of Unai Emery’s Villa side

Not that long ago, there were doubts over whether or not Ollie Watkins had the ability to be the main man for a Premier League team.

By Sam McGuire

The versatile forward had an impressive debut campaign at Villa Park following his £22million move from Brentford in 2020 as he netted 14 goals. This included a hat-trick against Liverpool in that 7-2 victory, three goals across two games versus Arsenal, and a goal against Spurs.

The way he seamlessly adapted to life in the English top-flight didn’t go unnoticed and he was linked with moves to Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool across various stages of the summer of 2021. He remained with the Villans though and mass interest in the striker appeared to die down after his second season in the Premier League. He couldn’t match the exploits of the previous campaign, finishing with 11 goals though he did find the back of the net against Spurs and Manchester City this time around.

At one stage it appeared as though the 2022/23 season would be a disappointing one for the England international. In his first 18 Premier League appearances, Wakins scored just three goals. He finished the season with 12 in 19, finding a new lease of life under manager Unai Emery after the Spanish tactician replaced Steven Gerrard.

He’s carried this goalscoring form over into the current campaign with 18 goals to his name, a total that only Erling Haaland can better. Watkins has rounded out his game too and currently leads the way for assists in the top-flight with 10. His 28 goal involvements cannot be matched.

It is easy to understand why he’s more of a threat than ever before. When looking at the numbers, Wakins has never averaged more shots on a per 90 basis for Villa (3.03) while he’s only bettered his return of 1.3 key passes per 90 during his time in the Championship with Brentford, and that was when he was more of a wide player. The Aston Villa No. 11 has dialled back certain elements of his game, for example he’s attempting fewer dribbles, with the primary focus now being firmly on how he can influence the final third. He’s much safer in possession too, finding a teammate with a Premier League career-high 76.2% success rate.

Emery has looked to turn Watkins into the main man. A man main few felt he could be.

The player has credited Emery with helping him develop as a player. After scoring the winner for England vs. Australia last October, he said: “I think my mindset has changed since the boss has come in, Unai Emery at Villa. He’s filled me with a lot of confidence. I’ve definitely improved in these last 18 months since I was last in the England camp. “I think it shows in my form and my performance here so I’m really happy and I’m delighted to be back in the squad and putting on an England shirt.”

And Emery acknowledged his part in helping Watkins evolve as a player when speaking to TNT Sports earlier in the season, saying: “Firstly, I told him that his goals were a consequence of his work every day. His commitment with the work tactically that we have to do not only in the attacking third but as well when we are defending. And then he has the quality when there are spaces to attack, like today was fantastic, and today he played amazing. We helped him try and get on to good balls, and his finishing today was amazing. We are working with him individually, but he always wants to work more than we are trying to do with him.”

Watkins has 28 goal involvements in 2,703 minutes in the Premier League. He’s involved himself in a goal in 50% of his appearances this season and instead of having the odd purple patch, something that occurred during his debut campaign, he’s spreading the threat around. For example, the longest he’s gone this term without a goal or an assist in the Premier League is three games.

Not only has Emery made him more of a focal point, Watkins has also improved himself as a finisher. We see this when looking at his underlying numbers. His Expected Goals total for the season is 15.02 but his xG on Target haul is 17.3. He’s adding value to his efforts with his shot placement. This, coupled with the fact he’s averaging more shots, is the perfect storm for the 11-cap England international, and it goes some way to explaining why he’s managed to be an even greater threat this season.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every Aston Villa game live with FotMob — featuring xG, deep stats coverage, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Apr

2024

Analysis: How Ernesto Valverde led Athletic Club to their first Copa in 40 years

Athletic Club are one of just three founding members of the Spanish Primera División who have never been relegated, the others being Real Madrid and Barcelona. What is even more impressive is that they have maintained that record with a policy of only signing Basque players that dates back over a century. Of course, this has limited their ability to compete with the giants in Spain, but this season, they have shown the world that they still have the ability to lift silverware.

By Neel Shelat

For those who are not so clued up on the history of Spanish football, it may come as quite a surprise to learn that Athletic Club are actually the second-most successful club in the Copa del Rey. They have reached 40 finals and lifted the trophy 24 times, meaning only Barcelona have a better record than them.

The majority of their success came in the first half of the 20th century, and especially from 1960 onwards, things began to slow down. They did complete a memorable league-cup double in the 1983/84 season but failed to lift any major trophy for almost four decades thereafter.

In recent years, Athletic have established themselves as a solid upper mid-table LaLiga team who do compete for the European spots from time to time. They also won the Supercopa de España in 2016 and 2021 having qualified for it by reaching the Copa del Rey finals, but the trophy eluded them on five occasions within a decade from 2011 onwards.

That has finally changed this time around as Ernesto Valverde oversaw a successful Copa del Rey run that culminated in a victory on penalties against Mallorca. So, in this week’s analysis column, we are taking a look at how they did it.

Super Solid Defending

A solid defence is often the key to success. Especially in knockout competitions, being tough to score against is one of the best attributes a team can have, so it should be no surprise that Athletic Club kept five clean sheets en route to the Copa del Rey final. Under Valverde, they have reaped the rewards of prioritising the defensive side of things.

With a possession average of under 50% in the league, their game model has clearly been designed in a way to play to their defensive strengths. At the moment, they have the joint-most clean sheets in LaLiga having kept a shut-out in half of their matches so far.

Their underlying numbers are just as impressive, as Athletic’s xG conceded tally of 30.5 placing them as the third best defence in this respect, ever so slightly behind Barcelona.

Without the ball, Valverde asks his team to set up in a 4-4-2 block with the number 10 joining the striker up front to create this shape out of what is a 4-2-3-1 formation on paper. Compactness between the lines and cohesiveness in movement are the first principles of their defensive approach, and they have undoubtedly worked very hard on this in training. At this point, their players are so well-tuned to their defensive tactics that their block almost seems to function as a unit.

This excellent cohesiveness enables Athletic to defend high up the pitch without having their defensive line exposed in behind. Their intention is to keep their opponents’ possession as far away from the goal as possible. The fact that they have made the third-fewest clearances in LaLiga this season illustrates their success in this respect, as they rarely have to defend deep, or clear their lines in desperation.

At the same time, Valverde’s tactics also involve the setting of clever pressing traps to lure their opponents into trying to build out from the back before winning the ball high up the pitch. For this reason, Athletic do not start with an overly proactive press but instead let their opponents play a couple of passes. The wingers in particular start a touch deeper to encourage their opponents to access the wide areas, but the moment they play a pass out to their full-back or wing-back, the press is triggered. With intense collective movements to squeeze out the space around the ball, Athletic are very often successful at generating turnovers in the opposition third either by tackling out wide or by cutting out attempted passes into midfield.

Through these pressing traps, Athletic are also able to supplement their attacking output from defensive positions. Their tally of eight goal-ending high turnovers is the best in the division this season – accounting for 16% of their goals scored.

Williams-Power Up Front

Thanks to their incredible defensive solidity, Athletic Club do not need to blow teams away in attack. Just one or two goals are enough for them to win matches, so their average of 1.7 goals per game is especially good given the context of their tactical approach.

While Athletic certainly have the capability and player quality to gradually play out from the back – which is what they do against teams that set up to defend deep – they are also happy to be more direct against teams that look to press them. Either way, their attacks are ultimately focused down the flanks where they have serious star power in the form of the two Williams brothers.

Iñaki and Nico are the team’s most important players by a number of metrics, especially when it comes to creation. They are the top two in terms of (chances created 41 and 39 respectively), joint top with eight big chances created each and also first and second as far as Expected Assists are concerned. Their output is right up there as well with 23 goal involvements between the pair.

Better yet, the two have different profiles which make them better suited to different situations.

The elder Iñaki, who has played over 30,000 competitive minutes for Athletic so far and set a world record of 251 consecutive league appearances in the process, is a very intelligent forward whose off-ball movement in behind and into the box enable him to consistently get into dangerous positions. His finishing can still leave a little to be desired, but a return of nine league goals this season is nothing to sneeze at.

These traits make Iñaki especially effective against high pressing teams and in big games, which is why he registered two goal involvements each in Athletic’s cup wins over Barcelona and Atlético Madrid en route to the final.

Young Nico, on the other hand, is a more exciting winger who loves to dribble with the ball at his feet, can beat defenders either way and is most effective at chance creation.

For this reason, the Spanish international makes more of an impact against teams that defend in a deeper block. Indeed, he starred against the Mallorca in the cup final and provided the assist for Athletic’s equaliser.

The summer signing of Gorka Guruzeta has also proven to be a valuable addition to Athletic’s attack which produces the second-most crosses in the division. A real fox in the box, his club-high return of 13 league goals has primarily come from being in the right place at the right time in and around the six-yard box.

In addition to these three, the likes of Álex Berenguer and Oihan Sancet ensure Athletic Club have enough attacking quality to unlock opposing defences while their own remains formidable.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Apr

2024

Coventry City’s extraordinary rise under Mark Robins

Coventry City are a club that simply refused to die. Under Mark Robins, the manager has overseen an extraordinary ascent, from the depths of League Two to the play-offs in the Championship, and an FA Cup semi-final, dealing with an extraordinary amount of off-field problems along the way.

By Dharnish Iqbal

In the last 11 years, Coventry have been forced to play their football outside of their home city for two separate periods of time.

And this story begins with the Sky Blues being relegated to League One in 2012.

On the brink of liquidation, the club were forced to share their ground with Northampton Town for a season. A dispute with stadium owners ACL (Arena Coventry Limited) over Coventry’s access to matchday revenue ultimately led to fans going to a different home stadium to see their team play.

ACL were happy to lower the rent Coventry had to pay in the circumstances, but didn’t want to release matchday revenue to the club who argued they needed those funds to operate.

In 2016-17 the club were relegated to League Two, but everything changed with the appointment of Robins as they won the EFL Trophy in the same year they were relegated.

This proved to be the turning point as in the following season they gained promotion back to League One via the playoffs, before securing promotion to the Championship two seasons later.

As has been the norm for this remarkable club, even when the sun shone there was darkness around the corner.

A return back to their own Ricoh Arena lasted until 2019 when, for two more years, they were forced to once again move their home games – this time to St Andrew’s in Birmingham, as Rugby Union club Wasps, who in the interim period had taken on control of the stadium from ACL, then collapsed into administration themselves.

33 miles away from their home, attendance numbers dwindled. In March 2021, Coventry agreed to a ten-year deal to return to their arena and their city.

There were to be more twists in the tale, as consortium Frasers Group, owned by former Newcastle United owner Mike Ashley bought the stadium from Wasps, issuing an eviction notice to the club informing them a new license must be agreed upon before Coventry could play at the stadium.

The club claimed before Ashley’s ownership there was an existing agreement that things would stay the same for City to play at what is now known as the Coventry Building Society Arena.

Finally, Coventry and Frasers Group agreed on a five-year deal in April 2023 for the club to play at the stadium.

The battle for Coventry’s home was finally over, as a 12-year tug of war for where the team would play their football affected fans and revenue.

It makes for an astonishing reading of events. Two changes in stadium, two promotions, two relegations, countless fan protests and flirtations with administration.

All overseen by the calm hand of Robins, the manager famous for once saving Sir Alex Ferguson’s job when he himself, was a fast paced striker.

Finances in the lower divisions of the English league system often mean that clubs are regularly in the unfortunate situation of being on the brink of administration, making the fact that Robins has rebuilt Coventry from the fourth tier one of English football’s greatest achievements in recent years.

Robins regularly had to sell his best players early in his tenure, whilst the budget was tight, but he simply got on with it, having broken the £1m mark when purchasing a player only once since 2008.

This summer was no different. After losing the 2022/23 play-off final to Luton Town, the club sold key players Viktor Gyökeres and Gustavo Hamer, to Sporting, and Sheffield United respectively.

For other clubs, this would be a huge setback. For Coventry, it is simply a bump in the road.

Robins as always, has rebuilt. A strike partnership has formed with Ellis Simms and Haji Wright both hitting red hot form at the business end of the season. Simms has 13 league goals to his name (18 in all comps) while Haji Wright has 15 in the Championship (17 all comps).

Whilst there is a clear battle for the two automatic promotion spots in the Championship, between Leeds, Ipswich Town and Leicester City, the sides below them in the play-off places will be sweating as seventh placed Coventry have won four of their last five games and may be peaking at just the right time.

The Sky Blues took some time to adjust to the departures of Hamer and Gyokeres, winning only three of their first sixteen games this season.

However, they’ve reaped the benefits of having a manager who has been with them through thick and thin, entrusted with turning the club around in the toughest of times.

It’s a relationship that goes far beyond club and manager, as Robins has had a huge hand in reviving a city’s football club from the brink.

With the business end of the season approaching, Coventry are in a good position for another attempt at reaching the play-offs and a glamorous, well-deserved FA Cup semi-final with Manchester United is also on the horizon.

Coventry City are a club that has thrived in disrepute. They’ve been through it all and rose above it against immeasurable odds.

For the Championship teams still to face them – starting with play-off rivals Southampton tonight, and Manchester United, it will be a dangerous time to play a club that has hauled itself off the canvas so frequently.

(Images from IMAGO)

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Apr

2024

Andriy Lunin: The stand-in keeper making his mark

Thibaut Courtois was the best goalkeeper in the world and he had the trophy to prove it. Indeed, the Belgian was handed the Yashin Trophy – the Ballon d’Or for goalkeepers – in 2022 following an outstanding season for Real Madrid which saw him play a key role in a Champions League and LaLiga double.

By Graham Ruthven

This season, however, has been a completely different story for Courtois who has had to watch from the sidelines after tearing an ACL in his knee just two days before Madrid’s opening fixture of the 2023/24 campaign. Most expected Courtois’ absence to be a major storyline in Los Blancos’ season, but it hasn’t been thanks to the performances of Andriy Lunin.

Lunin wasn’t mean to be Courtois’ stand-in. Kepa Arrizabalaga was signed on loan from Chelsea to be that figure. When Kepa failed to make the position his own, though, Lunin took his opportunity and has never looked back. The Ukrainian has been the surprise package of Real Madrid’s campaign.

Many believe Lunin has been the best goalkeeper in LaLiga this season. The 25-year-old is outperforming his post-shot Expected Goals per 90 minutes by 0.28 in La Liga – and by an extremely impressive 0.58 in the Champions League. For context, Courtois’ best-ever La Liga saw him outperform his post-shot xG per 90 minutes by just 0.20 – and by 0.55 in the Champions League.

Against RB Leipzig in the Champions League round of 16, Lunin was particularly outstanding, equalling Courtois’ record for the most saves in a match in the competition. “He was brilliant,” said Carlo Ancelotti afterwards. “He’s highly motivated and playing with real confidence. Playing helps him grow in confidence and he was outstanding today, he did a fantastic job in every respect.”

There has been no drop-off with Lunin in between the posts. He might not stand as tall as Courtois, who has a four-inch advantage, but Lunin is an equally imposing figure. He claims crosses with authority and has the wingspan to reach shots that would flash past inferior goalkeepers.

Without Lunin, Madrid might not have been able to hold things together at the back this season. Courtois isn’t the only major injury the capital club has had to deal with – Éder Militão, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy have all missed periods of the season through injury. There was a point earlier this year when Madrid didn’t have a single fit centre-back.

The performances of Lunin was the thing that kept Real Madrid on the straight and narrow through this period. The Ukrainian goalkeeper has earned the respect of those who doubted he could ever become first-choice at the Santiago Bernabéu. This is, after all, a player who has been loaned out to three different clubs in his career.

Of course, the landscape will change when Courtois finally returns from injury. The Belgian has enough credit in the bank to reclaim his spot in the team when he’s fit and available again, but what will that mean for Lunin? He has demonstrated that he is simply too good to sit on the bench again.

Courtois shared the number one jersey with Keylor Navas during his first season at Real Madrid, but that situation ultimately proved to be untenable with the latter leaving Spain to join Paris Saint-Germain. Ancelotti will find it difficult to rotate Courtois and Lunin when both are good enough to play at the elite level.

Recent reports claim Jorge Mendes has been hired as Lunin’s new agent to lead negotiations with Real Madrid over a new contract. The 25-year-old’s current deal at the Santiago Bernabéu runs out next year and all parties seem keen to agree an extension. If, however, talks break down, Mendes will surely get his new client a good move.

Eight points clear at the top of the table, Real Madrid are La Liga’s champions-elect – and have been for some time. Despite drawing Manchester City in the quarter-finals, Los Blancos are also among the favourites to go the distance in the Champions League. The likes of Jude Bellingham and Vinícius Júnior will be identified as game-changes who could decide that tie. Lunin’s contribution could also be significant, just as it has been all season.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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