The Pulse of Football

Feb

2025

Preview: Real Madrid’s chance to recover in LaLiga against toothless Girona

Real Madrid scored a huge UEFA Champions League victory over Manchester City this week, but their form in LaLiga has been subpar of late. So, they will be keen to get back on track against Girona on Sunday.

By Neel Shelat

Real Madrid looking to avoid four-game winless streak in the league

Having started February with a loss to Espanyol and followed up with draws with Atlético Madrid and Osasuna, Real Madrid are the most out-of-form side among La Liga’s top 15 teams this month.

The last time Los Blancos went four league matches without a win was back in 2018 when a drawn Madrid derby was followed by losses against Alavés and Levante and a 5-1 Clásico humiliation that cost Julen Lopetegui his job. Of course, there isn’t quite as much pressure on Carlo Ancelotti right now, partly because of his previous success but mostly since he oversaw a commanding Champions League knockout win over Manchester City, complete with the team’s best performance of the season at the Santiago Bernabéu.

Jude Bellingham’s suspension opens a spot in the attack

Jude Bellingham saw red for dissent in Real Madrid’s draw with Osasuna last weekend, prompting long discussions all over Spain about the subtle difference between “f– you” and “f– off”. There was a potential threat of a long suspension as well, but ultimately, he was handed a relatively moderate two-match ban.

As a result, there will be an opening in the otherwise fixed front four for the next week. Brahim Díaz and Arda Güler are the two chief competitors to be the second choice in the number 10 role. The latter is arguably the more creative player, but recent form favours the Moroccan as he provided the match-winning assist in the Copa del Rey tie against Leganés earlier this month before scoring the game-winner in the first leg against Manchester City.

Kylian Mbappé’s sensational start to the year

Kylian Mbappé’s move to Real Madrid was by far the biggest transfer of the summer. Even so, some analysts questioned whether he would be the best fit in Ancelotti’s side. Indeed, he did take a good deal of time to adapt to his new surroundings at the start of the season but has well and truly arrived by now.

The French forward has scored 14 goals in his last 11 matches, including a couple of hat-tricks against Real Valladolid and Manchester City. So, he is still firmly in contention for the Pichichi Trophy.

Girona looking a shadow of their former selves

Girona were one of the most eye-catching teams in LaLiga en route to a podium finish last season, but they have not been able to sustain that level of performance. Michel’s side are currently languishing in mid-table and have lost six of their last seven games in all competitions.

Although they have maintained their possession-dominant style of play, the departures of Artem Dovbyk and Savinho have really hurt them in the final third. The absences of forwards Abel Ruiz and Arnaut Danjuma will further limit their threat in this game, but the suspended Yangel Herrera will be a bigger miss in midfield.

Prediction

Given Girona’s recent struggles, Real Madrid should aim to keep a clean sheet and record a multi-goal victory.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Man City host Liverpool in Sunday headliner

Manchester City need three points from their match against Liverpool to retain a Champions League place for next season, even if their title bid has almost certainly sailed.

By Ian King

Crunch time for both sides

Both clubs were involved in midweek fixtures, and both had a difficult time of things. City were blown away in a meringue-storm at the Bernabeu courtesy of a hat-trick from Kylian Mbappé, which was all a sharp contrast from the previous weekend’s 4-0 thrashing of Newcastle. And with that result coming off the back of that 5-1 defeat at Arsenal and the first leg of their Champions League play-off, it’s fair to say that City’s recent form has been…patchy.

Liverpool made hard work of their rescheduled Premier League game away to Aston Villa, taking the lead before falling 2-1 behind by half-time at Villa Park and ending up hanging on slightly for a 2-2 draw. Following an uninspired performance against Wolves and conceding that late equaliser at Everton, they’ve started to show signs of fallibility of late after a lengthy excellent run from the start of the season.

History

Historically speaking, Manchester City do not have a great record in this fixture. It took them eleven goes to record their first win against Liverpool, a 3-2 win at Maine Road on Halloween 1903. Their recent record isn’t so great, either, with just two wins from their last ten meetings, though four of those ten did end in draws. Earlier this season, Liverpool beat them 2-0 at Anfield.

Key players

Dominik Szoboszlai was a lot of fun at Villa Park on Wednesday night. He’s a player who’s really grown into a role at Anfield, and his link-up play with Mo Salah can be a delight to watch. To the extent that a modern Premier League footballer at a big club can be, he still feels slightly underrated. Injuries mean that the Manchester City team for this match is somewhat uncertain, but a big performance from Phil Foden would certainly do an again beleaguered-looking Pep Guardiola a favour.

Team News

John Stones limped out of the Real Madrid game early, while Erling Haaland was left on the bench; both have to be considered doubtful for this game as well. Nathan Aké replaced Stones on Wednesday night and could be back in the team for this game. Cody Gakpo missed the Villa game for Liverpool but could return for this one. Joe Gomez and Tyler Morton are also likely to be missing.

Prediction

Manchester City are capable of putting in a big performance. This much we can say with a degree of certainty; they certainly put one in against Newcastle last weekend. And considering that Liverpool have started to look nervy in their last three straight Premier League games, it could even turn out to be that yesterday’s defeat for Arsenal isn’t too damaging if City can lift themselves out of their torpor and put in a similar performance to last weekend. The uncertainty surrounding both teams lends itself to a 1-1 draw.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Inter Miami face NYCFC in season opener

MLS is back, and so are Lionel Messi and Inter Miami. They kick off their 2025 league campaign at home to New York City on Saturday night on the back of a midweek Champions Cup matchup played in freezing conditions. Can they warm up in time for the new season?

By James Nalton

Is Messi still magic?

Many thought the 2022 would be Lionel Messi’s last World Cup, signing out with a long-awaited triumph with Argentina.

Having moved to one of the 2026 co-host countries to play his club football, and having been the standout player in MLS last season despite limited game time, he might be eyeing 2026.

But first, 2025. There are signs already that Messi is still magic after he scored the only goal in Wednesday night’s Concacaf Champions Cup meeting with Sporting Kansas City.

If he can log more minutes than the 1,756 he managed in MLS last season, he could break league records and come back for more in 2026 for both club and country.

Luis Suárez is back too

Having originally only signed a deal with Inter Miami until the end of 2024, Luis Suárez signed on for another year.

He retired from international football last season but feels his aching 38-year-old knees still have another MLS season in them.

While the physical speed isn’t there, the mental quickness and clever movement are, meaning he should still be among the goals in 2025.

The benefit of a warm-up match?

Inter Miami enter this game on the back of that 1-0 win in Kansas City, but despite a chance at pre-season competitive action, the conditions were far from ideal.

The temperature at kick-off was -14°C and such extreme weather as well as the travel involved might affect the players.

The competitive action might have been useful though, and the test for Miami this season will be on Javier Mascherano’s coaching and how the rest of their roster performs alongside Messi, Suárez, Jordi Alba, and Sergio Busquets.

Do they have the quality depth and game plan to deal with the rigours of MLS and Concacaf? It doesn’t get much more rigorous than their midweek experience.

Improving on last season

Having topped the overall table with an MLS-record points haul in 2024, Inter Miami have one aim this time around — winning the MLS Cup.

Though the league leaders are celebrated and get to lift the Supporters’ Shield, the true champion in MLS is considered to be the post-season playoff winner.

Last season, that was LA Galaxy, as Inter Miami suffered a shock playoff exit at the hands of Atlanta United.

There is now only one aim for this team and that campaign won’t begin until October, but they will likely be in the running for the Supporters’ Shield again regardless.

Prediction

If pre-season is anything to go by, New York City will be without their best player, Santi Rodríguez, who has been linked to a move to Botafogo. Though Inter Miami might still be thawing out from the freezing temperatures of Kansas City, another narrow 1-0 win for Messi and co. might be on the cards.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live this season with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Barcelona visit Las Palmas in the Canary Islands

Table-toppers against relegation strugglers. Unbeaten in 12 against winless in seven. There’s simply no way that this one is an upset, right?

By Karl Matchett

Opposites and familiarities

Barcelona have found their groove again. They stumbled and stuttered before Christmas, but Hansi Flick has his side back on cruise control in some matches, finding quality to find a way in others. Unquestionably there was an element of fortune last time out against Rayo Vallecano, but the end result is Barcelona on top of the table in LaLiga, toe to toe with the two Madrid clubs and – with only 14 matches left to play now – slightly ahead in the title race.

It’s all very different for Las Palmas, goal difference again a decisive factor but this time keeping them not top of the table, but outside the relegation zone. The problem they face is that even over the last five matches, Valencia have managed a nine-point swing on them one spot lower, while Leganés have earned four points more and sit one spot higher.

In form terms it simply doesn’t look as though anything can stop Barcelona taking another three points and Las Palmas losing another match; football moves in odd ways at odd times though and a couple of old Camp Nou faces might be looking at this fixture as a statement one. At either end of the pitch, Jasper Cillessen and Sandro Ramírez are keys for the islanders, and will want another chance to show their old supporters that they still have the talent they once displayed in Catalunya.

In the red and in the green

Six defeats and one draw in the last seven doesn’t offer too much hope for the hosts. A more winnable run of games lies beyond this one, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet this side of Christmas and three wins at home all season is far from ideal. On the other hand, four wins on the bounce for Barca in league play shows they are in fine fettle, rattling in 13 goals in that time.

Team news

Scott McKenna is suspended for the home team, who will also be missing Adnan Januzaj, Fábio Silva and Marc Cardona from their attack, plus midfielder Kirian Rodríguez. Long-term absentees Andreas Christensen, Marc-André ter Stegen and Marc Bernal are the Barcelona players who remain MIA, but Marc Casadó and Dani Olmo are available again.

Key player

Without going to the super-obvious pick of Robert Lewandowski, the top scorer, it’s Raphinha’s all-round impact this year which has kept Barcelona competitive. He’s first in the squad for xA/90, chances and big chances created and penalties won, plus has 19 goals or assists to his name. He ranks 96th percentile for chances created across Europe, 97th for shots and 98th for goals in his position – it’s been a scintillating return to form for him in 2024/25 and he remains the biggest all-over threat.

Prediction

No shocks or surprises, an away win and with a few goals scored along the way: Las Palmas 1 Barcelona 4.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Aston Villa meet Chelsea in battle of European contenders

Aston Villa are winless in five Premier League games, Chelsea have just three in their last ten. Both sides meet at Vill Park on Saturday, knowing a win would appease either sets of fans… for a little while at least.

By Alex Roberts

Unai Emery’s side were unlucky not to come away with all three points after the 2-2 draw with Liverpool in their previous fixture, but a point against the league leaders isn’t the end of the world.

Chelsea, on the other hand, were thoroughly battered by Brighton, it wasn’t even a contest. The Enzo Maresca love-in is officially over; Todd Boehly and co have proven to be just as trigger happy as the previous regime, defeat to Villa may well be the beginning of the end.

Move over Cole Palmer

Palmer isn’t the only Man City academy graduate balling out this season, his mate Morgan Rogers is in the form of his life. With 11 goals and six assists in his 35 games across all competitions, the versatile forward has become a key man for Emery.

The time last year, he was slogging it out at Middlesbrough, now he’s made his England debut and scoring hattricks in the Champions League. Confidence is flowing through his veins, and Chelsea will need to keep their eye on him.

*Palmer vs. Rogers, EPL stats comparison*

Both Palmer and Rogers have remained friends since their academy days, but that changes when they step out on the pitch. The Chelsea man had the last laugh in the reverse fixture, but a lot has changed since then.

Academy lads can be scrutinised too

Look, every fan loves to see one of their own climbing up the ranks and becoming a first-team regular, but that doesn’t make them exempt from criticism. Levi Colwill has a bag full of potential, and he will doubtless have a fantastic career, but, right now, he’s struggling.

He was particularly poor against Brighton. His positioning was poor, he didn’t seem to communicate with Filip Jörgensen in goal particularly well, and he was arguably at fault for the second goal, although he has a pretty solid case for being fouled in the build-up.

It’s all stuff that comes with being 21, and as he grows both mentally and physically, he will only improve. Right now, he does seem a little flustered, and Maresca needs to put his arm around him.

Marcus Rashford is due a goal contribution

It’s still weird to see Rashford in anything other than a Man United shirt, but he seems like a new man at Villa, so far anyway. His freekick and subsequent Ollie Watkins goal helped salvage a point against Ipswich, but it didn’t count as an assist.

Rashford is without a goal/assist since the start of defender, although that’s mostly because Rúben Amorim didn’t fancy him. Ironically, he scored the first goal of his United tenure. Things change quickly in football, ey?

He has a decent record against Chelsea, scoring six goals and providing two assists in his 20 games against the West Londoners. We don’t know about you, but it feels like he might add to that here.

Where will the goals come from!?

Nicolas Jackson is injured for the foreseeable future, Palmer is having a bit of a drought, and Christopher Nkunku’s heart doesn’t appear to be in it. Chelsea are lacking fire power, and everyone knows it.

None of their other forward have ever been prolific. Pedro Neto and Noni Madueke have it in them, but the Portugal international is patchy at best, and the Englishman is a major doubt for this one.

Maresca will likely field the same attacking line-up he didn’t against Brighton, he doesn’t really have any other options. Let’s see if they click or are just as invisible as they were last time out.

Prediction

Both sides are struggling, in the league at least, but a decent draw against Liverpool should give Villa the mental edge. We’re going to go with a 2-0 win for the home side.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season – featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Arsenal take on West Ham looking to breath new life in to the title race

Arsenal can put more pressure on Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table with a home win over West Ham.

By Graham Ruthven

Opportunity knocks

New life has been breathed into this season’s Premier League title race. Not so long ago, it appeared Liverpool were running away at the top of the table. Their draw against Aston Villa on Wednesday, however, has altered the picture.

All of a sudden, Arne Slot’s team have suffered a dip. The draw against Villa was the second time in three games that Liverpool have dropped points in the league, opening the door for Arsenal to mount a fightback.

A win for the Gunners against West Ham on Saturday afternoon would close the gap at the top of the table to just five points with Liverpool away to Manchester City 24 hours later. City might not be the force of old, but a trip to the Etihad Stadium is always a challenge.

This weekend has the potential to be a turning point in the Premier League title race and Arsenal must make sure they do everything possible to pile the pressure on Liverpool by claiming three points on Saturday.

West Ham, meanwhile, are struggling for traction under new manager Graham Potter. The Hammers are likely safe from the threat of relegation, but a positive result this weekend would help them feel more secure.

Key players

Declan Rice will face his former team as the controlling figure in the centre of the Arsenal midfield. The 26-year-old is at the peak of his powers and might have to offer even more as a creative force as the Gunners struggle with injuries.

Martin Ødegaard is another midfielder who will have to step up to compensate for the goals and assists that have been lost through the absence of Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus.

Ethan Nwaneri could keep his place in the Arsenal lineup after impressing in the recent win over Leicester City. The teenager has been a livewire for the Gunners since breaking through and has quickly become an important player due to injuries.

Evan Ferguson made his West Ham debut off the bench in last week’s defeat to Brentford and the Irish striker could be fast-tracked into the lineup such is Potter’s need for an attacking focal point.

Jarrod Bowen will give West Ham threat attacking open space while Mohamed Kudus could find space in between the lines of Arsenal’s midfield and defence. At the back, the likes of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Max Kilman and Alphonse Areola will have stay solid too.

Team news

Mikel Arteta’s biggest decision for Saturday’s match against West Ham concerns his forward line. Will Mikel Merino start as an emergency centre forward after his goal-scoring cameo off the bench against Leicester? Or will Leandro Trossard keep his spot?

Injuries to Havertz, Saka, Martinelli and Jesus have left the Gunners terribly depleted in the attacking third. Raheem Sterling could be in line for another start, but Arsenal need him to produce more.

Michail Antonio and Niclas Füllkrug are long-term absentees for West Ham while Jean-Clair Todibo and Crysencio Summerville are also sidelined. Ferguson’s fitness might not permit him to start, but he will surely feature at some point.

Prediction

Arsenal 1-0 West Ham. It could be tight, but the Gunners should edge it, just to continue the narrative that the title race is back on.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Preview: Manchester United go to David Moyes’ Everton

Everton and Manchester United go head-to-head at Goodison Park as David Moyes manages against his former club once again. Rúben Amorim will be hoping to relieve some pressure after a difficult start to his tenure, but the Toffees are in fine form under Moyes.

By Matt Smith

The Red Devils have a strong record when facing Everton, winning the previous meeting earlier in the season 4-0, with Marcus Rashford and Joshua Zirkzee both grabbing a brace. The last time United came to Goodison Park, the Manchester club secured a 3-0 victory, with Alejandro Garnacho scoring his famous overhead kick.

Everton welcome back Doucouré

Abdoulaye Doucouré was sent off after the final whistle in the Merseyside derby last week, meaning he missed Everton’s trip to Crystal Palace. The energetic midfielder will be available for selection after serving his suspension, which will be a huge boost for Moyes considering their injury situation.

It’s looking unlikely that the Toffees will see any of their current injured players return, with the likes of Armando Broja, Youssef Chermiti, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Iliman Ndiaye failing to take part in training this week. The injuries haven’t hit them too hard, winning four of their last five Premier League games.

Beto unstoppable under Moyes

Beto has struggled for game time since arriving at Everton from Udinese, but Scottish manager Moyes is starting to get a tune out of him – as we discussed here during the week. Moyes has perhaps been forced to utilise Beto due to injuries in attack, but his increased minutes are bringing the best out of him.

The Lisbon-born striker has averaged 0.79 goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, only bettered by four players. In his last three league appearances, Beto has struck on four occasions and will be hoping to continue his fine form against United.

United down to the bare bones

Against Tottenham last week, Amorim’s bench was flooded with academy stars due to a host of injury troubles in the camp. Key players such as Lisandro Martínez, Amad Diallo, and Kobbie Mainoo are still on the treatment table, while the likes of Luke Shaw, Jonny Evans, and Mason Mount are all unavailable.

Leny Yoro and Christian Eriksen only missed the Spurs clash due to illness, so they could return at Goodison Park.

Amorim needs more from attacking trio

Due to a lack of options in their front line, we’re likely to see an attacking trio of Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Højlund, and Joshua Zirkzee. The young stars have struggled in a United shirt this season, and Amorim will be desperate to see them gather some momentum against Everton.

Finding the back of the net on just eight occasions in the league between them, it’s difficult to see where United’s goals are going to come from. The trio are going to have to start delivering, with Amorim having no option but to select them at the moment.

Prediction

Despite United’s strong record against Everton, we’re going with the form table for this one. The home side has picked up more points in their last five games, so we’re predicting a 2-0 Everton win.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Looking ahead to the 2025 MLS season

Major League Soccer and its headline act Lionel Messi are back for a new season in which Messi’s team, Inter Miami, will be hoping to better last season’s Supporters’ Shield win by claiming the league’s top trophy, the MLS Cup, in 2025.

By James Nalton

Though they are the main attraction, there is plenty going on in MLS aside from Messi and Miami in 2025 as the league celebrates its 30th season, adding another new team and also a new internal transfer mechanism which has spiced things up ahead of the new campaign.

Levelling up

LA Galaxy won the MLS Cup last season after triumphing in the end-of-season playoffs just over two months ago, but they head into 2025 without star player Riqui Puig due to a long-term injury and goal-getter Dejan Joveljić who joined Sporting Kansas City.

The defending champions also saw Jalen Neal, Mark Delgado, and MLS Cup final MVP Gastón Brugman move to other teams in the off-season, primarily to help them remain under the salary cap, especially after having paid bonuses for winning the MLS Cup.

This opens up the door for other teams to catch up, which ultimately is what MLS’s various roster control mechanisms are designed to do.

Inter Miami will hope they can take full advantage of this and of Messi’s time in the league by claiming the biggest prize this time around.

They have pandered to the Argentine star, appointing his former international teammate Javier Mascherano as head coach while his former academy coach at Barcelona, Guillermo Hoyos, has been promoted to a key sporting direction role.

They’ll have plenty of competition for the MLS title in 2025, with numerous teams tending to their rosters in an attempt to increase their own chances of a successful season.

Cash rules everything around MLS

In parts of MLS, it is almost as if a refresh button has been pressed ahead of 2025. Not only is there a new franchise in the shape of San Diego FC, but many teams across the league are rebuilding without their best players from the previous year, with some moving to Europe or South America, but others to teams within the league.

Some of this rebuilding has been facilitated by the league’s introduction of cash for player trades — as opposed to having to rely solely on the league’s own, limited internal currency called allocation money as was previously the case.

Players traded in this manner so far include Jack McGlynn from Philadelphia Union to Houston Dynamo and the aforementioned Joveljić transfer from Galaxy to Sporting KC.

FC Cincinnati lost its best player and 2023 MLS MVP Luciano Acosta, who joined FC Dallas in this manner, but Cincy are arguably stronger going into 2025 thanks to the signings of Kévin Denkey who scored prolifically for Cercle Brugge and Evander from Portland Timbers.

Evander himself was one of the best players in MLS last season and will be a big miss for the Western Conference side coached by Phil Neville.

*FotMob’s top rated players in MLS, 2024 season*

New names

While the introduction of cash-for-player trades has led to a more headline-grabbing internal transfer market, MLS has also been bringing in players from outside the league.

The 2025 off-season has already witnessed the most money ever spent by MLS clubs in a transfer window and the primary transfer window stays open until April 23, so there is still time for more spending.

Some of the bigger names to join MLS so far this season include Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting to the New York Red Bulls and Wilfried Zaha to Dean Smith’s Charlotte FC.

Atlanta United broke the league’s incoming transfer record when they spent $22 million on Emmanuel Latte Lath from Middlesbrough, while they’ve also brought back Miguel Almirón who starred for their MLS Cup-winning team in 2018 before moving to Newcastle. It’s a real statement of intent from the team who have also appointed a new head coach in the shape of another former MLS Cup winner, Ronny Deila.

Other head coach moves include former USMNT managers Bruce Arena and Gregg Berhalter joining San Jose Earthquakes and Chicago Fire respectively, and former Aston Villa defender Olof Mellberg taking charge at St. Louis City.

A new team

On top of all the above arrivals, new players including Hirving Lozano, Anders Dreyer, and former Manchester United youth Paddy McNair will all be joining the league’s new team, San Diego FC.

The introduction of this fourth Californian team means MLS is now at 30 teams with 15 in each conference.

It makes it one of the biggest leagues in the world when it comes to the number of teams, and many will be involved in various cup competitions in 2025, including the domestic US Open Cup to the Concacaf Champions Cup.

Favourites

The two Los Angeles teams finished level on points at the top of the Western Conference last season before LA Galaxy went on to win the playoffs. Both will hope to maintain that level, while Seattle Sounders also look strong and some have tipped Eric Ramsay’s Minnesota United as possible dark horses.

Over in the East, Atlanta’s strengthening should see them challenge at the top end of the table again, while Ohioans Columbus Crew and Cincinnati will be hoping to remain in the mix.

The Crew suffered a big blow when their best player Cucho Hernández moved to Real Betis, but will hope the style of play under Wilfried Nancy will see them continue to be one of the league’s best teams. If Zaha can find his Palace Premier League form, Charlotte might also be one to look out for.

Indeed much of what happens in MLS this season will depend on how effective the new players and coaches are for their respective teams, and how quickly they settle. In this regard, there is much to look out for across the 30-team league entering its 30th season.

(Cover Image from IMAGO)

You can follow every match from MLS live this season with FotMob — featuring deep stats coverage including shot maps, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.

Feb

2025

Birmingham City are on for the double they never knew they needed.

The teams take to the turf at St Andrews flanked by fireballs and fireworks. They kick off through a haze of smoke that near-shrouds the field from view. By then, we’ve already been warmed up with a rock band in the fan zone. We’ve had Harry Lauder’s 1924 anthem ‘Keep Right On To The End Of The Road’ sitting next to the DJ’s mash-up of Sean Paul’s ‘Temperature’ with ‘No Speak Americano’ on the PA. We’ve seen enough blue lights with the LED and laser show to keep you up longer than Jack Bauer on triple espressos.

By Sanny Rudravajhala

The only thing moving slowly around St Andrews is the traffic. It’s a huge shift from a club that was in total gridlock.

When Birmingham City sacked Wayne Rooney 13 months ago, it was an admission that the new owners had made a gross error. Early-season play-off contention under John Eustace had been traded for a non-existent and purely imagined brand of ‘No Fear’ football. The wheels were set in motion for a relegation car crash into the third tier.

Fast forward to present day, and a re-constructed Birmingham side have just made it to Wembley for the final of the Vertu Trophy. Don’t look at me like that. Ok, like me, you must have missed its mid-season rebrand. The EFL Trophy isn’t at the top of the priority list for a club hell-bent on promotion, but pulling off a league and cup double would bring a feelgood factor and momentum that no amount of pyrotechnics can buy. And, for Tom Wagner and the rest of the owners, a redemption arc of their own.

Digging into Davies

Last season was a fiasco. To be fair to the American investors, they couldn’t have legislated for Rooney’s original replacement, Tony Mowbray, having to step down through ill-health. Gary Rowett’s ill-fated final eight game interim spell was a Hail Mary of an appointment that even much-celebrated minority shareholder and seven-time Superbowl winner, Tom Brady, would have struggled to pull off.

Chris Davies’ arrival signalled an about turn from the hierarchy, moving from a big name to an unknown, but picking someone with a growing reputation within coaching circles.

As Brendan Rodgers’ right hand man at both Celtic and Leicester City, the 39-year-old was charged with first-team training and oversaw a treble north of the border and successive fifth-placed finishes in the Premier League plus an FA Cup trophy lift at Wembley. Having had his own youth playing career curtailed through arthritis at Reading, he’s packed in 20 years of coaching experience before his 40^th birthday. His final role as an assistant saw him paired with Tottenham’s Ange Postecoglou last season before Birmingham brought him in.

Unsurprisingly, for a man who sees Pep Guardiola as one of his coaching inspirations, Birmingham like to keep the ball. 66% possession, over 100 more passes per game than anyone else (475) and only Leyton Orient win the ball in the final third more often. He’s won 74% (31/42) of his matches, with only five defeats. It’s silly numbers and you can argue that’s thanks to silly money. But this time it’s cash that’s been spent wisely.

Money talks

Birmingham are often mentioned in the same breath as Wrexham. The comparison is easy. Two North American-owned soccer clubs, spending big and dreaming of the big time. Where they differ however, is the type of player they’re recruiting. Whilst Jay Rodriguez is Wrexham’s latest ex-Premier League talent that’s been around the block, Birmingham have picked at least one with miles left to run.

Jay Stansfield was stretchered off in tears in their semi-final victory over over Bradford. News that his injury isn’t as serious as feared is as big a boost as Lyndon Dykes’ Tuesday night headed winner.

Signing a player for £15m in division three is ludicrous. Let’s not pretend otherwise when the average revenue for a League One club is just under £10m.

*Jay Stansfield shot map, League One 2025/26*

But this is a low-risk investment with a value that will hold. At 22, Stansfield is a young English player with his whole career ahead of him. He’d already proven himself on loan from Premier League Fulham last season. His winner against Charlton exhibited everything that’s making him unplayable now. Having barged Conor Coventry off the ball on the halfway line on the right flank, he carried the ball to the area before smashing home, to rapturous celebrations.

It was he too who got a superb opener against Bradford. With 20 in 29 games, his cost per goal is diminishing by the week. Up close, he is relentless. With 16 goals in League One, he’s the division’s joint-top scorer and along with Richard Kone (xG 12.1), is one of the most clinical (xG 14.2). He also gets stuck in for the team. Beyond ball winning and recoveries, his yellow card for dragging a fallen Ethan Laird back onto the pitch, to prevent a re-start, showed he’s got that cunning that the wisest of strikers take years to cultivate.

Swap out Stansfield and the embarrassment of attacking riches at Blues continues. When you can call upon last season’s League One golden boot in Alfie May, everything gets easier. He arrived at St Andrews with 75 goals in his last 3 seasons, with 23 in the league with Charlton. He hasn’t scored in 11 but still has ten goals and five assists from his 28 appearances. His goals per 90 in the league is 0.58, last season it was 0.60. So, he’s performing just as well despite fewer opportunities. His time will come.

*Birmingham City goals + assists, League One 2024/25*

Across the rest of the park, they continue to impress. Ethan Laird and Alex Cochrane are both in the early stages of their careers but are performing excellently from full back. Laird, in his second season, offers so much offensively that it helps overwhelm opponents on the flanks. Laird is free from the weight of being an ex-Manchester United youngster that can pull a player down. In front of them is a midfield all around the same age and approaching their peaks. It makes for a formidable opponent, able to give Premier League Newcastle United, a bloody nose in the FA Cup.

The final run-in

Last weekend’s test against playoff hopefuls Charlton was a new one for Chris Davies. Nathan Jones’ side had beaten them once already and, having gone behind and on the ropes, Charlon tried to make things uncomfortable. The second half descended into one of my Monday night 5-a-side matches where the referee has let too many things go, and by the end it’s all-out war. But Birmingham came through unscathed and the better for it too. Winning ugly is another thing Davies can now say this side can do.

Looking at the table and given Birmingham are still unbeaten at home, I think we can call them the League One Champions-elect. That’ll feel even closer with three points over second-placed Wycombe in midweek at the start of March. It’s a far cry from the anguish at St Andrews last year, when they conceded a 96^th minute winner to Southampton and began their final descent towards relegation.

Now they’re on the up and as luck would have it, Peterborough or Wrexham await at Wembley in April. The latter will be a headline writers dream but whilst the team with the Hollywood owners would love a perfect streaming moment, for Birmingham City, it’s a bonus on a serious quest back towards the Premier League. We laughed at ‘No Fear’ football and Super Bowl silliness and you may still hate the pre-match pageantry. But make no mistake, the circus has left town and what remains is a united club with the ambition, and the means, to keep right on.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

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Feb

2025

Premier League Preview, Matchday 26

It isn’t just a potentially big weekend in the Premier League. That would be an understatement. The ramifications from Matchday 26 could be humongous. We’ll likely be saying this for the remainder of the campaign. With every passing week, results matter even more. But look at the fixtures this weekend.

By Sam McGuire

The ripples caused by some of the games this weekend could well shape the table for the rest of the season.

The David Moyes derby

Everton host Manchester United this weekend at Goodison Park. The Toffees are one of the form sides in the Premier League following the return of David Moyes. In fact, no team has picked up more points than the Merseyside club over the past five matches (13).

The only real blip during this run was in the FA Cup against Bournemouth when the Cherries knocked out their hosts.

The Toffees are now scoring goals, they’ve scored a minimum of two goals in four of their last five in the top flight. The goals have fired them up the table and they’re now in 14th position, one point clear of the Red Devils ahead of this clash.

United have been in freefall. They’ve picked up just six points from the last five matches in the Premier League and they rank 13th in the form table. Only six teams have picked up fewer points and four of them make up the bottom four in the English top-flight.

Rúben Amorim’s men don’t travel well either. They’ve taken just 13 points from 12 matches on the road, scoring 11 goals in the process. If results go against them this weekend, they’ll finish Matchday 26 just nine points clear of the drop zone with no momentum on their side.

Sliding doors moment at Villa Park?

Aston Villa have been in awful form lately. The Villans have taken just four points from their last five matches but they did hold league leaders Liverpool to a 2-2 draw at Villa Park on Wednesday evening. They also held Arsenal to a 2-2 draw last month. They haven’t had issues performing in the bigger games this term. It’s the other games that have let them down.

Despite such inconsistencies, they aren’t that far off of a top four spot. In fact, they’re just five points behind fourth-placed Manchester City. Unai Emery’s men welcome an inconsistent Chelsea team to Villa Park on Saturday evening knowing a win would move them to within one point of the visitors.

All of a sudden, a second successive top four finish wouldn’t look out of the question.

They’ll fancy their chances too, no doubt. Enzo Maresca’s side have been erratic over the past couple of months. Their title challenge has faded and now they are another of the sides in the scrap for a top four finish. A scrap they’re currently losing. In recent weeks, they’ve been hammered by Manchester City and Brighton. A period that coincides with Cole Palmer having failed to register a goal involvement in his last five matches.

Now is the time for him to show up. Now is the time for Chelsea to show they have the mental fortitude for a top four fight. It’d be a big three points and it’d be a blow to one of their rivals. It’s a big game. Time for the Blues to show what they’re made of.

The Etihad hoodoo

Liverpool haven’t won a Premier League match at the Etihad for almost 10 years. The Reds last claimed all three points away to City in November 2015 when Roberto Firmino inspired them to a 4-1 win.

Arne Slot’s side will be hoping to bring that run to an end on Sunday. The Reds have stuttered over recent weeks, dropping points to Everton and Aston Villa in games they’ve been leading while only managing to claim a narrow win over Wolves at Anfield.

Their lead at the top is diminishing. Right now, it stands at eight points having played a game more. The gap at kick-off on Sunday could be five points if Arsenal beat West Ham on Saturday afternoon.

The pressure then mounts, doesn’t it? A draw at the Etihad would give the Reds a six-point lead having played a game more and Arsenal will smell blood. It’s a free hit for Arsenal with no pressure or expectation on them, and they can chase the Reds down.

And while City have been out of sorts this term, they are currently in possession of the final Champions League spot. A spot they’re going to want to claim for the remainder of the season. They’re going to be up for this. It isn’t a top of the table clash like previous ties between these two but it is just as big, for both teams.

The top four battle

At the start of the season, few would’ve had this down as a game with top four ramifications. But here we are. Nottingham Forest are currently third on 47 points. Their form has been a little sketchy over recent weeks but they’re holding on to a place in the Champions League places, for now at least.

Newcastle are seventh, six points off of their hosts. They had been on a remarkable run of form prior to the last month. They’ve lost three of their last five and this includes a 4-0 loss to Manchester City last weekend.

If Forest claim all three points here, it probably ends Newcastle’s hopes of gatecrashing the top four, doesn’t it? But if the Magpies win, all of a sudden, Forest’s position in the top four becomes awfully precarious.

The outcome here is massive in the grand scheme of things, for a number of clubs.

(Cover image from IMAGO)

You can follow every game from the Premier League on FotMob – with in-depth stat coverage including xG, shot maps, and player ratings. Download the free app here.