Dušan Vlahović’s start to the season has been decent but the club’s fans are crying out for more and that is why this is a huge campaign in the Serbian’s career.
A few weeks ago, there were big question marks around Vlahović’s suitability for the setup Thiago Motta has installed at Juventus. The Bianconeri boss, as evidence suggests from his use of Joshua Zirkzee, while at Bologna, prefers a link-up forward in his side instead of an out-and-out finisher and his system revolves around a player of that type.
Vlahović was hooked by Motta at halftime in the game against Napoli in September but responded with a brace in consecutive games against Genoa and then Leipzig in the Champions League, bringing about a change in form. He has five Serie A goals so far, with two coming from the spot. There remains a feeling that more can be got from the striker, who was previously scoring close to a goal a game at Fiorentina.
Now 24, Vlahović does have a tally that looks good on paper this season. But he has underperformed on his Expected Goals (xG) by some margin.
His xG in the Serie A stands at 0.82 per 90 minutes but he has scored 0.67 per 90 minutes, which would come as a disappointment to him, Motta and even some Juve fans. Having said that, he is taking a lot of shots per 90 minutes – more than he did last season. Because of that, it is only natural for his xG to be high.
He performed on par with his xG under Max Allegri last season but scored at a rate which was around 0.60 per 90 minutes. That isn’t a bad number at all but it is this season where he has to evolve as a player.
One of Motta’s main principles as anmanager is numerical superiority in midfield. This is best exemplified by how he likes his full-backs to invert as centre-backs and centre-backs often step out into midfield. At Bologna, Zirkzee dropped deep into midfield and was the glue for the rest of the attack.
Bologna benefitted from Zirkzee’s profile due to the presence of direct runners like Alexis Saelemaekers and Dan Ndoye and the Dutchman dropping in set them through constantly. Motta made sure that he adapted his system to suit the players at hand, leading to the Rossoblu qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in decades.
The principles of the Italian-Brazilian’s approach remained the same but he adapted to the profiles at hand too. At Juve, he is still experimenting with the players available and he is figuring out which role suits which player best.
Kenan Yıldız, for example, has been used in the number ten spot and on the left. Teun Koopmeiners was brought in as the attacking midfield option but Weston McKennie is also an option. Timothy Weah has often been used in a centre-forward role despite now being an out-and-out wide player, with Nico González an option for either side and Samuel Mbangula being the profile for the left-wing.
They haven’t really been prolific in attack, even if they have been very solid defensively. So much it suggests that things are still coming together and the harmony of the squad is taking a while to gel.
Juve are 12th in the table for Expected Goals created and that is a paltry number for a side that wants to challenge for the title. Defensive numbers are keeping them in the hunt but the bad attacking numbers will likely catch up with them up, as the season goes on.
Problems in Serie A and for Juventus go beyond just the performances on the pitch.
Vlahović is, by far, Juve’s highest wage earner and he earns over €400k a week, which is over €20m a season. The club’s second highest wage earner, centre-back Gleison Bremer, earns less than €10m a season and that shows how much faith Juve have placed in Vlahović, who has never crossed the 20 goal mark in his time at the Bianconeri.
For any Serie A club – let alone Juve, that is a huge burden, especially considering the Serbian’s return. That context makes the 2024/25 season a massive one for Vlahović, who knows that the club’s new management is much more ruthless than the previous one under Andrea Agnelli.
He will have an eye on how Federico Chiesa was let go in the summer too and the 24-year-old’s current deal runs out in the summer of 2026. This means that the summer of 2025 will be Juve’s last chance to earn a good fee from his sale and only a great season will make sure that he gets a new deal, which he is said to be very keen on doing right now.
To make sure that he has a chance of staying at the club, Vlahović has to go beyond the 20-goal mark – even if it means over-performing on his xG.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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