Battered and bruised after their dismal showing at Euro 2024 – where they finished bottom of their group with just one point – Scotland returned to action in the Nations League last month.
Facing life in League A, hopes were certainly diminished following the poor showings in Germany. The question was, would Steve Clarke be able to get the public back onside after a failure to qualify for the knockout stages at the Euros?
A Dismal Start
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” Once said physicist Albert Einstein. While not going as far to dub Clarke insane, it appeared as though he hadn’t learnt his lessons from Germany.
Indeed, when Poland visited Hampden for the opening League A tie in the Nations League, eight players who started the 1-0 defeat to Hungary in Stuttgart retained their places.
Clarke did tweak his tactics, however. against the Hungarians, he persisted with three at the back, which clearly didn’t work.
For the visit of the Poles, the manager reverted to a 4-2-3-1 system, hoping to dominate the midfield while deploying Grant Hanley and Scott McKenna as the two centre-backs. Despite the change in approach, the Scots conceded twice in the first half.
Goals from Billy Gilmour and Scott McTominay looked like it would earn Scotland an unlikely (and undeserved) point, but a Nicola Zalewski penalty in the dying embers of the match saw three points head back to Poland.
In the heat of Lisbon three days later, McTominay scored after just seven minutes. Was the Poland result a mere blip? Did Clarke’s men have it in them to secure their first win over Portugal since 1980?
The Portuguese came to life in the second half. Bruno Fernandes equalised shortly after the restart before Cristiano Ronaldo broke hearts in the away end with the winner just minutes from full time.
It was a marked improvement from the Poland defeat, no doubt about that, but questions marks remained over Clarke’s loyalty to certain players.
Will these losses impact the starting XI he unleashes to face Croatia in Zagreb on Saturday? Many of the Tartan Army will certainly hope so.
Fresh Blood and Old Faces
There were a few surprises in Clarke’s squad for the matches against Croatia and Portugal. Craig Gordan returns to the squad, despite his appearance against Finland before the Euros looking like his farewell.
Elsewhere, defenders Liam Lindsay and Nicky Devlin have been called up for the first time, while Andy Irving has been rewarded with a maiden call up having broken into the West Ham United side.
Familiar faces such as Kenny McLean, Ryan Christie and Andy Robertson once again feature in the squad, but by calling up Ryan Gauld and Lewis Morgan, is Clarke perhaps moving away from loyalty and giving chances to those who deserve it based on current form?
His stubbornness was a quality that helped forged an excellent team spirit, allowing Scotland to qualify for back-to-back European Championships. The performances in Germany and against Poland and Portugal last month indicate that he has to move with the times, especially with the pressure building.
A New Approach?
The 4-2-3-1 system which was used last month certainly looks like it could be worth utilising again during the next two Nations League matches.
Devlin can lay a claim to starting against the Croatians after a fine start to the season, while a new centre-back pairing must be found, as McKenna misses out and Grant Hanley has only played just 153 minutes all season.
Billy Gilmour and McLean will likely be deployed at the heart of the midfield, while it is the front four which could look a lot different than it did against Portugal.
Of course, McTominay has a firm grasp on the attacking midfield slot after his displays for Scotland over the previous 18 months. It isn’t just the fact the Napoli man has netted ten goals for his country since March 2023, but it is the importance of those efforts.
Two goals to see off Spain at Hampden. The clincher against Georgia a few months later. Opening the scoring against Switzerland at Euro 2024, the list goes on. He even scored after a minute for Napoli against Como last week, suggesting that he is enjoying life in Naples.
Clarke’s gambles should come on the flanks. Morgan and Gauld must replace John McGinn (injured) and Christie, especially considering their impact in the final third for their respective teams this season.
Combined, the duo have registered 22 goals and 16 assists for Vancouver Whitecaps and New York Bulls. Compared to players in similar leagues, Gauld ranks in the top 3% for chances created, while ranking in the top 4% in MLS for winning possession back in the final third. These qualities could be well suited to Clarke’s tactical approach.
On the opposite flank, Morgan could offer a dangerous threat in the final third. Not only does he rank in the top 6% in MLS for total shots (86), but the winger even ranks in the top 2% for chances created when compared to his own peers.
Considering Che Adams’ excellent start to the season with Torino, he could be in prime position to add to his Scotland tally with both Gauld and Morgan flanking him.
Since swapping the south coast of England for Turin, the 28-year-old has already scored four goals, which should see him come back into the starting XI.
If Clarke repeats previous mistakes, Scotland could suffer another two defeats. But if he takes a gamble and goes with those players who are in form, the Scots could secure their first competitive win since September 2023.
It’s the hope that kills you.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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