Two teams with just one defeat apiece meet as the Uefa Champions League kicks off early on Tuesday afternoon – but Athletic Club’s perception of home advantage may have been eroded in important fashion by their defeat at the weekend.
By Karl Matchett
A more tactical Champions League campaign?
Last year was…experimental, perhaps. The first season in an expanded league phase, with everybody not playing everybody else led to both opportunities and also concerns. Did your domestic rival have easier away days? Did they travel less? What about that cut-off to automatically go through – valuable or not? Two extra matches sounds a burden but Liverpool topped the whole group and yet were eventually drawn to play eventual winners PSG right off the bat.
It means we might see a more refined approach from the top managers this time in Uefa’s premiere competition, targeting enough points to get a top-eight finish, but with less concern about whether they are second or seventh – even with home advantage for the second legs in the knockouts at stake.
For Arsenal, then, away to Athletic looks their second-toughest away day after a trip to Inter Milan – yet given they face Bayern Munich at home, maybe it takes precedence as a journey of points-earning potential. After Athletic lost only twice at home in LaLiga all last season that might have seemed ambitious – but they were beaten at the weekend by Alavés on home soil, so the Gunners need fear nothing.
Rotation shows Arteta’s plan
Declan Rice might as well be written in as the first name on the teamsheet now. There’s only one reason to not start Arsenal’s most athletic midfielder in a league match and that’s if he’s pivotal to the midweek plan.
Last year Mikel Arteta was criticised for not rotating enough, perhaps; if the aforementioned 16-points barrier for a top-eight finish is the target, then picking and choosing when the stars align for a strong Arsenal team is the manager’s new juggling act. The squad looks deeper this year after another few hundred million were thrown at the transfer market – he has to make it work.
Recent form
Both teams have three wins and one defeat in league play so far, though Arsenal conceding only once makes their points haul look far more solid and impressive.
Team news
The Gunners seem to have half of their squad made up of former Basque-region players these days, with Kepa revisiting his former club as the sub keeper and ex-Real Sociedad stars Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino almost certain starters. Another, Martin Ødegaard, will probably miss out injured.
William Saliba, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz are also missing, as are Athletic’s Iñigo Lekue, Beñat Prados and star Spain forward Nico Williams.
Key player
Arsenal are tough opponents but Athletic’s other home games include Sporting and PSG – they can’t just bide their time for points. Unai Simón will be kept busy and needs a good game for the hosts. His 67% save ratio puts him 15th in LaLiga at this point and his goals prevented rate is currently negative 0.7 (17th). Improvements required.
Prediction
Arsenal won the pre-season meeting between the two and will do so again here. Athletic 1-2 Arsenal.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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