Not the final the new version of the Club World Cup deserved, and not the one it will get either – but PSG versus Real Madrid is the titanic type of clash Fifa had in mind for the uber-expanded tournament. A winner here will be favourite for the overall biggest prize of around £90m.
By Karl Matchett
One key tactical matchup
What this semi-final has is one team with a tactical plan they know and love, and another who are experimenting with the likely set-up for next season, with a new boss in place and a few new faces too. The most interesting part of that, in terms of immediate on-pitch impact, is in PSG’s front three against Real Madrid’s back three…or back five, depending on how hard-working they are and how cautious Xabi Alonso wants to be.
If Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fran García get pinned back in a five to tie down the movement of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé, then the Spanish side could really struggle to break out of shape and dominate the match. But if they don’t track back at all or passes from PSG’s deep midfield sail over them, a Real Madrid back three unused to the setup could find themselves in a lot of one-v-one situations.
Defensive differences
It’s not just the direct numbers either. Real haven’t been exactly able to practice Alonso’s preferred system with a regular collection of faces: Éder Militão is still sidelined, Raúl Asencio was sent-off early in the tournament, Dean Huijsen was last time out too. It’s tough to get right on the fly, let alone when you’re facing the world’s most dangerous attacking line of the last few months. Real actually rank in the tournament’s top ten for saves per match and are ninth for highest xG conceded; PSG on the other hand have only seen one goal scored past them at the tournament in total.
Recent form
On the assumption that actual in-season results don’t really have any bearing on this competition, PSG are on a Club World Cup run of four wins and one defeat from their quintet of outings – just Brazilians Botafogo beat them in the groups. Real Madrid drew their opener with Al Hilal and have won four on the trot since then.
Team news
PSG are without two suspended players, centre-back Willian Pacho plus defensive sub Lucas Hernández. Real Madrid have Eduardo Camavinga back in training and former PSG star Kylian Mbappé is back in the fold once more after illness, but Huijsen is suspended after a red card and the likes of Dani Carvajal, Ferland Mendy and Endrick are all longer-term injury absentees.
Key player
Vitinha. His ability to shift the ball will test Real’s new alignment, not just through midfield but to the sides of the defence too. He is top for accurate long passes per 90 at the tournament and second only to Rodri in overall accurate passes per 90 – plus he’s top five for expected assists.
Prediction
Possibly the match-up the watching world wanted to see at this tournament: the reigning European champions and the biggest club on the planet. We’ll go for the team who have already celebrated recently: PSG 2-1 Real Madrid.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
Don’t forget that all matches from the Club World Cup are shown live on DAZN – watch here for free!