It is a matter of when and not if the Premier League title makes it to Anfield this season. Following Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace on Wednesday evening, Liverpool are one point away from being named champions of England for the 20th time. They can win it in front of home fans on Sunday afternoon as they host Spurs.
By Sam McGuire
History favours Liverpool
Ange Postecoglou has faced the Reds five times as Spurs manager across all competitions.
He’s been the victor on two occasions. One was the controversial game in which Liverpool had Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota sent off, as well as a legitimate Luís Diaz goal wrongly ruled out after a VAR miscommunication. The other arrived earlier in the season in the first leg of the Carabao Cup. Again, there was some controversy with the match-winner, Lucas Bergvall, avoiding a red card just moments before scoring the only goal of the game.
Liverpool have won the other three matches. And when the Reds win, they do it emphatically. They romped to a 4-2 win under Jürgen Klopp, a 6-3 triumph in the league under Arne Slot and then a 4-0 victory in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final.
The Reds have scored 15 goals in five games against Postecoglou’s Tottenham, averaging three per game. You wouldn’t necessarily be shocked if they manage that again this weekend, with Spurs being a bit of a disaster defensively this season.
Tottenham’s defensive woes
Only six teams are conceding more goals than Spurs (1.5) on a per 90 basis and three of those have been relegated to the Championship.
Tottenham are struggling. They have six clean sheets this term and only four teams have fewer. Again, three of them have already been relegated. Their xG Conceded total of 54.3 is the fourth worst in the English top-flight. Yep, you guessed it. The only teams with a higher xG Conceded total are Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton.
Spurs last kept a clean sheet in the Premier League in February. Their inability to defend is why they’re in real danger of finishing 17th this season. It’s why they’ve taken just three points from the last 15 on offer.
Right now, West Ham are occupying that position, one point behind Postecoglou’s men with five games remaining. And the two teams face off next weekend.
Are Liverpool stumbling over the line?
The narrative being pushed recently is that the Reds have struggled over recent weeks and their season has stuttered. Defeats to Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup and Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League no doubt play a part in this idea. The loss to Fulham won’t have helped either.
But Slot’s men have actually taken 12 points from the last 15 on offer. In fact, they’ve won eight of their last nine in the Premier League. If this is stumbling over the line, what has Arsenal’s title challenge been? The Gunners have taken just 17 points from the past 30 available.
The Reds might not be sweeping teams aside, they’ve scored just nine across their last five outings, but they’re keeping clean sheets and winning games. They’re doing what is required to win the Premier League.
The current state of play
Joe Gomez is going to miss this game for Liverpool. The versatile defender is still out with a hamstring issue. Other than that, the Reds have a full squad to pick from. Trent Alexander-Arnold returned last week to score the winner against Leicester City and he might force Conor Bradley onto the bench for this game.
Spurs, meanwhile, might be without skipper Son Heung-Min while Radu Drăgușin is definitely out with a cruciate injury. Son missed the defeat to Nottingham Forest on Easter Monday and might be saved for the Europa League clashes.
Prediction
Liverpool only need a draw but we think they’re going to win. And we think they’ll do it in style with a 3-0 win.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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