With two games to go, there’s everything to play for at the bottom of the Championship, with at least eight teams looking to avoid the drop in a line-up that would even leave David Mitchell struggling to keep up.
It’s 17 years since his iconic ‘watch the football’ Sky Sports parody aired on the BBC as part of That Mitchell and Webb Look’s second season opener. With Mitchell marching around the pitch, bombastically telling us various football fixtures in an increasingly dizzying and maniacal manner. And last week we came full circle as David Prutton, wearing the same suit, shirt and tie parodied the parody whilst promoting Sky’s Easter football coverage. So, let’s delve into what’s going on at the bottom of English football’s second tier, where watching the live league table this weekend will be just as absorbing as watching ALL of the football!
Too late for resurgent Argyle?
After their superb victory over Coventry City on Monday, Miron Muslić said Plymouth would have been safe if he’d been in place at the start of the season. His results compared to Wayne Rooney bear that out and it’s unfortunate for the Argyle boss that their rivals have also been picking up points, meaning they are still bottom but crucially, now only three points from safety.
Mustapha Bundu was lucky to be on the pitch after a robust early challenge but the Sierra Leone international put in his best performance in an Argyle shirt in that superb Home Park showing over high-flying Coventry. Setting up Ryan Hardie after an excellent opener, he added a Bundu bundle in heading home for 3-1. The 6’6” January signing of Muhamed Tijani has given an extra option and freed up Bundu and Hardie to wreak havoc. Their defensive fragility under Rooney, however, means their total goals conceded is 85. That’s 16 more than the next worse in Cardiff and Portsmouth and a -37 goal difference makes staying up even more difficult. They will be relegated on Saturday if either Luton or Derby County better their result at Preston.
Bloomfield pulling a rabbit out of the Hat(ters)?
Whatever happens, Luton won’t go down this weekend. I had said that Matt Bloomfield felt like the right man at the wrong time but after a challenging start, he is now working his magic. Luton’s mid-February defeat to bitter rivals Watford felt terminal. They had gone 13 games without a win from Christmas but since then it’s been five victories and only two defeats from those next ten games. At times over the Easter weekend, they were tantalisingly close to having survival in their own hands with the live league table having them escaping the drop altogether.
Thelo Aasgaard has come good (as I predicted, if I can claim that!) with a string of strong showings, capped off with a well-struck opener against, play-off-chasing Bristol City. Bloomfield’s other January signings are all chipping in, particularly Milli Alli. Signed from Exeter, the 25-year-old, like Aasgaard, has stepped up a league and a level, with two goals in his last four games. That included a crucial winner against Derby County last Friday. Only Derby (45%) have scored more goals from set pieces than Luton (39%). Both enter this run-in knowing they will always have a chance.
Cardiff doomed?
Like Plymouth, Cardiff will be down if either Luton or Derby better their result. A goal difference that’s significantly worse than Hull and Derby also make things challenging for caretaker manager Aaron Ramsey. It’s been a diabolical campaign, with Omer Riza’s surly responses after their defeat at Bramall Lane showing just how much it has taken out of him. Having been unable to arrest the slide under Erol Bulut, he left the club following their defeat to Sheffield United. In February, I said Callum Robinson’s goals were the reason they weren’t further down the table. Since then, he has scored one, with January recruit Yousef Salech often given the nod ahead of him. To his credit, having been goalless in six, the Dane headed the first goal of a new era.
Ramsey was accompanied by Chris Gunter and Joe Ralls in Monday’s 1-1 draw with Oxford United. They looked transformed in a dominating performance but Cameron Brannagan’s venomous strike with 11 minutes to go hit them hard. Curiously, their final two games will also be against other caretaker managers in West Brom’s James Morrison and Norwich’s Jack Wilshire. All three clubs are playing the ‘new manager bounce’ game, but for Cardiff the stakes are much higher. However, as with Argyle, I feel it’s all too little too late.
Choppy waters for Derby and Oxford, Hull breached, Stoke on the beach and Preston plummeting
Looking at the fixtures, Derby have a crucial final two. Going to Hull on Saturday is huge. They end the season at home to Stoke City, who have been dragged into the mire. Leeds were rampant in what turned out to be a promotion-winning 6-0 victory but Stoke’s defending was appalling and having reached 50 points, they’ve got the beach towels out too soon.
The Rams took their damaging defeat to Luton in their stride to turn over an insipid West Brom and John Eustace has justified his move from Blackburn, winning five from ten, which is just two games fewer than Paul Warne managed all season. It’s all in their hands.
With Oxford facing two teams with little to play for in Sunderland who are already in the play-offs and Swansea, who under Alan Sheehan have been rescued, on paper they should be safe. However, having rested players and been met with defeats, Regis Le Bris is promising to field a stronger XI which means for Oxford, I think it will go down to the wire. They have struggled for goals but with victories over both Sheffield clubs and a stubborn if ultimately fruitless performance against Leeds, they’ve shown they can do enough to stay up.
Hull’s sacking of Liam Rosenior after taking them to 7th last season is even more ludicrous when you see they are now battling the drop. It’s added to the fact that the Englishman is challenging for Europe with Strasbourg. It was an aberration from owner Acun Ilıcalı, compounded with a mix and match transfer policy without adequate reinvestment after the sales of defender Jacob Greaves and winger Jaden Philogene. Whilst 20-year-old Charlie Hughes has impressed at the back, the loss of Philogene has seen them become the second-lowest scorers in the division. Hull are on the edge.
It’s a big ‘if’, but if Luton can pull off victories over Coventry and West Brom then I can see a nuclear scenario facing Preston North End. They’re not the third worst team in the division and I love my visits to Deepdale but on the pitch, a malaise has set in. The gravity of what’s at stake has seen the club reduce tickets to just £5 for the visit of Plymouth Argyle. A packed park will see a side with a wretched recent record; winless in six, including a damaging defeat to Hull last time out. In fact, they have just two league victories since January. Kaine Kessler-Hayden has been their shining light this season but he’s not even their player and will return to Aston Villa in the summer.
The biggest ‘if’ here is if Miron Muslić’s side can win a second away game of the season. In this PNE crisis scenario I can’t see Paul Heckingbottom’s team getting a victory over Bristol City and by my calculations they could go down on 49 points. There’s a hot take for him to print out and stick up in the PNE dressing room!
It’s the finest of margins and with so little between the bottom eight, we’re in for a chaotic crescendo. So, dig out a pallid yellow shirt, get studying the fixtures and let’s get marching. In the Championship, anything can happen. There’s everything to play for and, for this season at least, only two games left to play it in.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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