The Brentford attacker is a beneficiary of Mohamed Salah signing a two-year extension with Liverpool. With the soon-to-be four-time Golden Boot winner off of the market, Mbeumo has jumped to the top of the most desirable wide forward in the English top-flight list.
By Sam McGuire
The 25-year-old is having the best season of his career. His two goals against Brighton and Hove Albion on Saturday took his tally to 18 for the season, double his previous best return. His haul of 18 strikes in the Premier League can only be bettered by four players – Chris Wood (19), Erling Haaland (21), Alexander Isak (21) and Salah (27).
He also notched an assist against the Seagulls too, taking his number of goal involvements for the campaign to 24. Only Isak (27) and Salah (45) can do better.
The numbers suggest he’s been one of the best forwards in the Premier League this season. This, coupled with his contract situation, has put him at the top of a number of wishlists. He has a deal with the Bees until 2026 but Brentford have the option to extend it for a further 12 months. They will likely exercise this option to ensure they receive the maximum money for the French-born Cameroon international.
Mbeumo, if he departs the Gtech Community Stadium, should be a record sale. Right now, that record belongs to Ivan Toney when he left for Al-Ahli in a deal believed to be worth £42million. If reports are to be believed, the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle United are all keen on the £50million-rated one-time Troyes youngster.
Prior to this campaign, Mbeumo had been a consistent threat for Brentford but few expected him to have this sort of season. In his first two years in the Premier League, he had an Expected Goals per 90 average of 0.29. Last season, this jumped to 0.45 but his Non-Penalty xG was 0.34 – the equivalent of 13 Expected Goals over a 38-game season.
With a bit of luck, you’re looking at a 15-goal haul for the campaign.
Yet here he is, with five games left to go, with 18 goals already in the bank. Has he scaled his previous numbers? No. He’s just been on a hot streak all season with his finishing. Mbeumo has an xG90 of 0.32 this term but a Non-Penalty xG of 0.2. He has an xG total of 10.5 and a Non-Penalty xG total of 6.62. However, his xG on Target total is 15.5. The latter metric assigns a value to a shot on target. If a player is hitting the corners, they’re considered high value attempts. It is a loose way to quantify their finishing for the season. It isn’t, however, a predictor of things to come.
Mbeumo’s hot streak may come to an abrupt end at some point. After all, his finishing for Brentford prior to this season had been erratic at best with a number of underperforming campaigns.
When you look at his shot placement map from this term (above), you can see why he’s been as prolific as he has been. He’s hitting the corners with a lot of his efforts. He’s also benefited this season from being available. The 2023/24 campaign had the makings of a productive one for Mbeumo but injuries limited him to just shy of 2,000 minutes in the English top-flight. He’s already at 2,965 minutes this season.
Last season’s shots on target map (above) shows signs that he could’ve hit a lot more goals with more minutes on the pitch. He was hitting the corners with attempts. His shot volume was good, too, as were the underlying numbers. Mbeumo finished with nine goals from an xG of 9.81, an xGOT of 8.48 and a NPxG of 7.44.
If anything, last season was more positive than the current one. The difference is, he’s amongst the goals this time around and that is what people value.
There’s also value in other areas of his game. For example, he’s been quite consistent, involving himself in at least one goals in 16 of his 33 appearances. He’s scored and assisted in four games and netted more than one goal on four occasions.
It is something manager Thomas Frank recently mentioned, saying: “I’m very happy that he’s [Mbeumo] shining,” Frank said. “It’s a duo, of course, him and Wissa. Wissa is fantastic. He has scored actually more open-play goals than Brian still. But Brian is the penalty taker, unbelievable at penalties, assists, work ethic, an unbelievable player.”
Mbeumo has also shown his versatility this term too, playing in a front two at times. He’s made five appearances as a forward and scored four goals. These goals arrived against Tottenham, Chelsea, West Ham and Arsenal.
It is little wonder clubs are keeping an eye on him. He’s got goals, assists, speed and the ability to play a number of roles. The only real concern is his price being so high right now because of his overperformance in the penalty area.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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