Table-toppers against relegation strugglers. Unbeaten in 12 against winless in seven. There’s simply no way that this one is an upset, right?
By Karl Matchett
Opposites and familiarities
Barcelona have found their groove again. They stumbled and stuttered before Christmas, but Hansi Flick has his side back on cruise control in some matches, finding quality to find a way in others. Unquestionably there was an element of fortune last time out against Rayo Vallecano, but the end result is Barcelona on top of the table in LaLiga, toe to toe with the two Madrid clubs and – with only 14 matches left to play now – slightly ahead in the title race.
It’s all very different for Las Palmas, goal difference again a decisive factor but this time keeping them not top of the table, but outside the relegation zone. The problem they face is that even over the last five matches, Valencia have managed a nine-point swing on them one spot lower, while Leganés have earned four points more and sit one spot higher.
In form terms it simply doesn’t look as though anything can stop Barcelona taking another three points and Las Palmas losing another match; football moves in odd ways at odd times though and a couple of old Camp Nou faces might be looking at this fixture as a statement one. At either end of the pitch, Jasper Cillessen and Sandro Ramírez are keys for the islanders, and will want another chance to show their old supporters that they still have the talent they once displayed in Catalunya.
In the red and in the green
Six defeats and one draw in the last seven doesn’t offer too much hope for the hosts. A more winnable run of games lies beyond this one, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet this side of Christmas and three wins at home all season is far from ideal. On the other hand, four wins on the bounce for Barca in league play shows they are in fine fettle, rattling in 13 goals in that time.
Team news
Scott McKenna is suspended for the home team, who will also be missing Adnan Januzaj, Fábio Silva and Marc Cardona from their attack, plus midfielder Kirian Rodríguez. Long-term absentees Andreas Christensen, Marc-André ter Stegen and Marc Bernal are the Barcelona players who remain MIA, but Marc Casadó and Dani Olmo are available again.
Key player
Without going to the super-obvious pick of Robert Lewandowski, the top scorer, it’s Raphinha’s all-round impact this year which has kept Barcelona competitive. He’s first in the squad for xA/90, chances and big chances created and penalties won, plus has 19 goals or assists to his name. He ranks 96th percentile for chances created across Europe, 97th for shots and 98th for goals in his position – it’s been a scintillating return to form for him in 2024/25 and he remains the biggest all-over threat.
Prediction
No shocks or surprises, an away win and with a few goals scored along the way: Las Palmas 1 Barcelona 4.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
You can follow every game from LaLiga with FotMob this season — featuring deep stats coverage, xG, and player ratings. Download the free app here.