Manchester City have to win at the Bernabéu if they’re to stay in the Champions League. Orders don’t come much taller than this.
By Ian King
Form…or the lack of it
Manchester City travel to Madrid having so far fallen some distance short of having set this year’s Champions League alight. They’ve won just four of the nine games that they’ve played, and their first leg defeat to Real Madrid has left them needing a win just to force the tie into extra-time. They’ll need at least a two-goal win to avoid a penalty shootout.
Real Madrid haven’t had a particularly happy February yet, except for last week’s win in Manchester. It’s not often they go three games without a win in LaLiga – the last time this happened was November 2020 – but since the start of the month they’ve been held by Atlético and Osasuna, and beaten by Espanyol. They also lost three of their eight Megagroup games (League phase!), to Lille, Milan and Liverpool, and on Monday night they were knocked off the top of LaLiga by Barcelona, albeit only on goal difference.
The last two Champions League winners meet again
Over thirteen previous meetings stretching back thirteen years, there’s often been little to choose between these two. Way back in 2012 when they met for the first time, Real won 3-2. A 1-1 draw in the return match wasn’t enough to spare City third place and demotion into the Europa League. City’s first win against them came in February 2020. Their last win against Real came in May 2023, with Real winning on penalties in last season’s semifinals following two draws.
Key players
Omar Marmoush’s hat-trick in 14 minutes against Newcastle United may have given Carlo Ancelotti something to think about ahead of this return match. If Marmoush can match the promise of his performance on Saturday, his arrival gives them an extra attacking dimension. In that case, does Ancelotti try to protect what he has or exploit the gaps in City’s back line?
Jude Bellingham could be facing a lengthy ban in LaLiga after getting sent off on Sunday, but this doesn’t affect him in the Champions League and if City do have to commit forward in pursuit of that win, he could profit from the space left behind.
Team News
Jack Grealish, Rúben Dias and Nathan Aké were left out for the Newcastle game but have a chance of returning for this match. But Manuel Akanji’s absence has been confirmed as weeks rather than days, while Rodri and Oscar Bobb remain absent for the long-term. For Real Madrid, Antonio Rüdiger and David Alaba both missed the first leg but could be back for this one. Lucas Vázquez, Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal all remain longer-term absentees.
Prediction
Over their thirteen previous meetings, City have won four, Real have won five and there have been five draws, and this unpredictability has been further accentuated by the two teams’ recent patchy form. But you just can’t go against Real Madrid at home in this competition, so I’ll go for a 2-2 draw, possibly after extra-time.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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