With time running out and dice in hand, football clubs across the land have closed their eyes, given a shake, a throw and hoped Lady Luck is on their side. The transfer window casino has shut its doors and it’s high stakes at the bottom of The Championship.
Survival brings so much hope. Stay up and a tilt at cracking into the top-flight always remains. Fail, and you’ll be taking on Premier League youngsters in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy. So, where are we at with 16 games remaining?
Sinking Swans
I’m going to start with the side I’m most worried about. They aren’t even in the bottom three, but alarm bells are sounding at Swansea City. The form table has them bottom but the issues are much deeper for Luke Williams’ side. They’ve taken an incredible gamble in selling Matt Grimes, their ever-present captain and best performer (FotMob average rating: 7.21), to Coventry City and replacing him with Forest loanee Lewis O’Brien.
Grimes had started their last 88 Championship games, and when Frank Lampard is describing him as a ‘leader in the dressing room already’, you’ve got to seriously question what, if any, strategy is in place in south Wales.
Swansea are the poster child for the backlash at possession football for possession’s sake. They rank second behind Leeds with 61% of the ball, but what are they doing with it? It’s nowhere near the box, when you look at the data. They may be 17th but only Preston, Plymouth and Oxford have had fewer touches inside their opponent’s area, something fundamental for scoring! Their points return at home is equal-third worst in the Championship too. That reads even more painfully when Coventry left there with all three points, off the back of Swansea’s 5-1 capitulation at Norwich. They’ve run aground down by the River Tawe and, for whatever reason, the captain has abandoned ship.
Muslić looking good in Argyle
With his perfect beard, hair and poise in a puffer, Miron Muslić will certainly look better in the 2026 Plymouth Argyle calendar than Wayne Rooney has as Mr January for 2025. On the pitch it looks like we’re seeing a better team too. They showed resilience in their late draw at Sunderland and followed that up at a raucous Home Park in their turnaround against West Brom.
Muslić hasn’t been afraid to throw in his new signings too. Tymoteusz Puchacz has impressed out wide in his five games and the imposing Nikola Katić did well to deal with whatever Albion threw at him on debut. Stealing the show was Ryan Hardie with his double off the bench. By far his best performance this season, Argyle need their No. 9 to keep firing for any chance of escaping the drop.
Norway to go for Derby and Luton
It’s a sorry state for both Derby and Luton, occupying the final relegation spots.
For Derby, bringing in defender Matthew Clarke from Middlesborough is great business and he was impressive at the start of the season. Having lost his place, he’s come to a club he knows well from loan spells and has a chance to strike up a pairing with new Norwegian defender, Sondre Klingen Langås. I know absolutely nothing about him but with a FotMob score of 7.0, he was at least performing well for Viking in the 2024 season. Another from Viking, arriving to these shores, is Lars-Jørgen Salvesen. The striker has opened his account already in their defeat to Cardiff but like Plymouth, Derby have taken a big risk with unknown entities in the Championship.
As for Luton, Matt Bloomfield was an interesting choice to replace the unfortunate Rob Edwards. A year ago, Bloomfield was fighting for his job but such has been Wycombe’s turnaround, concurrent with Luton’s demise, he’s now in the Bedfordshire hotseat. Results are yet to improve but his transfer movements might just do the trick.
FotMob’s roots are in Norway and I don’t know if that’s why, like Derby, they’ve also got their own import from the Eliteserien with forward Lasse Nordås. The 194cm tower from Tromso gives them another option but when it comes to Norwegians, Bloomfield had one man at the top of his shopping list. At just 22-years-old Thelo Aasgaard has seen it all in his short career. I myself saw him break into a Wigan team coming out of financial crisis and his loyalty to the Latics has earned them a decent transfer fee, whilst giving him enough time to develop into Wigan’s star performer, under the tutelage of Shaun Maloney.
Aasgaard can score all sorts of goals. He is good in the air and with both feet and his 95th minute winner, a free kick against Stevenage in what was his penultimate goal in a Wigan shirt, was a thing of beauty.
In Josh Bowler and Isaiah Jones, Bloomfield has also found two experienced EFL players with points to prove. That reminds me of the side Rob Edwards took to promotion. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Luton have underperformed in all areas.
The best of the worst: Hull, Pompey and Cardiff
Out of Hull City’s signings, I hope they make the most of Louie Barry, who has lit up League Two and League One on loan at Stockport from Aston Villa. There’s a reason he became the first ever English player in Barcelona’s La Masia youth academy. He’s a special talent with an eye for the spectacular and I’m expecting magic moments whilst he’s moored in Humberside.
Will Portsmouth stop torturing midfielder Marlon Pack by playing him in central defence? The Pompey captain has been horribly exposed, especially with John Mousinho’s insistence on a high line and pressing from the front. Too often they’ve been turned around, and Pack has been the one caught out. Robert Atkinson on loan from Bristol City is looking the part and adding 20-year old Hayden Matthews should, I hope, allow Pack to get out from the back.
I should end by mentioning the next worst side, Cardiff City, fresh off a 7-0 hiding from Leeds. Callum Robinson’s outstanding season is the only reason Omer Riza’s side aren’t further down the table. His double against rivals Swansea means he’ll never be short of offers for a pint in retirement and with 11 goals from an xG of 6, it’s clear the 30-year-old will magic up more moments before season’s end.
Deadline Day is done and for the sides at the bottom, it’s time to see whether their gambles in the transfer market pay off. Will the dice read double six or snake eyes? We’ll soon find out.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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