One win in six and heading to for a game at the reigning Premier League champions could seem like it spells disaster and in previous years that kind of run might have left a Chelsea head coach in trouble. For Enzo Maresca this year, though, it’s only part of the story.
While the reality of recent results can’t be ignored, the Blues were a standout side across autumn and winter. That, along with performances and some key individual players emerging, will be cushions for Maresca when this and other bad runs inevitably crop up. And, in fairness, “bad runs” is laying it on thick: Chelsea lost twice and drew three in a run of five, before winning last time out against Wolves. They also cruised through to the next round of the FA Cup during that period, having already wrapped up top spot in the UEFA Conference League too.
All told, the season makes good reading for Maresca when factoring in the mess he inherited – and all this in what is, remember, his first season as boss in a top flight. The elite end of football has a habit of eroding goodwill quickly, it’s true, but an 11-match unbeaten run through November and December built him a quick cache of trust from the fans, while moving to within touching distance of Liverpool in top spot – however briefly that lasted – also hinted at what could be to come with this squad.
The question now, of Maresca and of his team, is whether they are building towards something real and sustainable, something which can continue to grow and challenge for major honours…or whether they are merely among the beneficiaries of others’ slip-ups and ineptitudes this season. It should be noted, there’s nothing inherently wrong with the latter – it’s perfectly fine to be right place, right time and just good enough to edge ahead of others when they keep making mistakes. Leicester did it to win a title, after all, and it can supercharge rebuild eras for others – like Newcastle finishing top four – even if it doesn’t lead to immediate silverware.
But at Stamford Bridge there is an expectation that the many hundreds of millions of pounds spent will lead to big trophies, of course. Which makes this recent blip of Chelsea’s, and their upcoming fixtures, particularly interesting.
It’s Manchester City next. That, in usual circumstances, would be a true litmus test of where the Blues are with their own rebuild – but this time the meeting is a test of both teams’ resilience and mentality as much as quality. For all Chelsea’s recent poor results might make them less-confident, Man City have won precisely once since October against teams who haven’t been either fighting relegation this year, last year, newly promoted, or in a lower league. Giving up four goals to lose again from a winning position in midweek won’t help their mindset either.
So, Chelsea should reasonably be expected to go on the offensive, to an extent. They are ahead of City in the league table by one position and two points, sat in fourth and definitely one of the teams considered to have most chance of a Champions League place for next term. Why sit back against a wounded and mistake-ridden City?
Comparing the two for the season as a whole, Chelsea have created far more big chances than City (79 to 66), have more shots on target (6.2 – 6.1), have a better conversion rate (12.2% to 11.6%), have conceded fewer goals in both xG terms (31-32) and real terms (27-29) and win possession in the final third (5.0 – 4.8) with greater regularity. City remain elite in having possession, getting into dangerous zones of the pitch and of creating set pieces, but what they do with the ball has diminished nonetheless – and certainly they’re far worse defensively.
Yet Chelsea’s season, and Maresca’s time as a head coach, won’t be defined by this one match alone. It’s just that winning, or at least avoiding defeat at the Etihad, will allow his side to stay above the one which will pose a big threat to top-four chances.
Across the board, though, there’s real reason to think Chelsea are doing well enough to move yet higher. They are second-ranked in the league for goals, possession, xG, shots on target, and big chances. It doesn’t take much insight to realise only one team has been better across the board there, and they are ten points above them in the table. But everyone else? There’s zero reason why Chelsea, this version of Chelsea, cannot push for second this term and beyond that later.
While Cole Palmer may be a standout, the individual improvements this season in Moisés Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson and the resurgent Jadon Sancho are fully apparent. Maresca’s coaching has aided this progression, along with his man management – so questioned at the start of the season when he decided he wanted a set number in his squad and those players who didn’t fit simply wouldn’t play. As it transpires, it’s hard to argue with his calls, or his rigidity there.
But what has come between August and January can unravel quickly. It’s happened before, to more established sides. Man City – and then onto West Ham, Brighton twice and Aston Villa – will showcase whether Chelsea are over their stumble and can continue to climb. Performances until now have been a clear improvement; the next task for Maresca is demanding the consistency of the very best.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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