No player in the Premier League this season has a higher goals per 90 return than Jhon Durán.
By Sam McGuire
The 21-year-old has, so far, chipped in with 1.06 goals per 90. For a little more context here, the next best on the list is Mohamed Salah, the man leading the race for the Golden Boot, with 0.92.
Durán started the season as a super sub for Aston Villa before eventually displacing Ollie Watkins in Unai Emery’s starting XI prior to his unfortunate dismissal against Newcastle United.
Ahead of that game against the Magpies, the Villa No. 9 had scored in four successive matches across all competitions. This included goals against RB Leipzig in the Champions League and Manchester City in the Premier League.
The turnaround for Durán at Villa has been remarkable.
Last summer, it looked as though he would depart Villa Park with West Ham United interested in the Colombia international. The Hammers reportedly offered £30m plus teenager Lewis Orford, an offer that was swiftly rejected. Chelsea also showed an interest and were prepared to pay £42million for his services. That transfer collapsed, however, when the player rejected the contract offer proposed to him by the Blues.
He then scored the winner against West Ham having come off of the bench in the opening game of the season.
Durán has been scoring ever since.
In total, he has 12 goals across 26 appearances this term. Of those appearances though, only seven have been starts and he has just shy of 1,000 minutes to his name.
There have been claims that the Villan is the best finisher in Europe right now. Some of his goals this term have been outrageous. He scored an effort with an Expected Goals value of just 0.02 against Everton. The xG value for his goal against RB Leipzig was 0.03 while his goal against Bayern Munich, when he caught Manuel Neuer out, had an xG value of 0.01.
His striking ability is ridiculous. His technique is ludicrous.
But how sustainable is this run he’s on? As we know, finishing can be fickle. Players can be on a hot streak that does eventually dry up. Sometimes, players aren’t able to buy a goal before the floodgates open and they can’t stop. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. It is just football.
Durán, reportedly a target for Paris Saint-Germain this month when it appeared as though their pursuit of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia may have failed, is now under pressure to make this form the norm. Is it possible, though?
The numbers don’t appear to suggest so.
Across 592 Premier League minutes this term, Durán has seven goals from an Expected Goals haul of 4.77. His Expected Goals on Target total is 5.57, which suggests he’s adding value to his efforts with his shot placement, something all good finishers do. But there’s more to it than that. The Villa man is able to add value to his shots because a high number of his efforts are of low value. The sheer volume eventually plays a significant part in the numbers. For example, if he’s taking 10 efforts with an average xG value of 0.02 but they had an xG on Target average of 0.20, he immediately has an xG haul of 0.20 but an xGOT total of two. It isn’t quite as extreme as this with Durán, but you get the point, don’t you?
Durán is averaging 4.41 shots per 90. He has an xG per shot average of 0.16. He is what you’d call an elite chance-getter. If he wasn’t, he wouldn’t be averaging over four shots per game. He’s someone who generates a lot of shots and causes chaos for the opposition. But these players can be streaky with their end product. He isn’t the sort to simply be in the right place at the right time. Maybe he won’t ever be that sort of player.
When they’re hot, they’re hot. When they’re cold, they’re cold. They haven’t quite yet figured out how to balance it out. Some don’t ever work that part of their game out. It isn’t a given.
Last season, it was a similar story. He finished with five goals from an Expected Goals total of 2.03. In fact, his five goals arrived from just seven shots on target. There was a lot of luck on his side during the 2023/24 campaign. And, again, it was over a small sample size and he was impacting the game against tired legs.
Right now, Durán is an enigma. He’s either one of the best finishers in the world or he’s currently on a prolonged hot streak. The more often he starts, the more we’ll learn about the former Chicago Fire player. Until then though, we’ll just enjoy watching him try to win the Goal of the Season award every single week.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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